Atlanta Hawks: On Josh Smith’s future
Before Josh Smith started his summer vacation, he was asked about the possibility of signing a contract extension with the Hawks.
“I can’t get extended,” Smith said. “They didn’t give me the money; I had to go get it. That’s something I have to play it out and see how it goes from there.”
Two things stand out about that statement. The first is that Smith, who presumably got the info from his agent, is wrong about his contract not being eligible for an extension.
I looked at Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ and could see no reason why Smith is not eligible for an extension. It’s been at least three years since he signed the deal, it’s never been renegotiated and it doesn’t include an opt-in. I checked with Coon and he confirmed the Hawks can extend Smith’s deal (they actually have been able to do so since August).
But the more interesting aspect of Smith’s statement is his allusion to having to “go get” his contract. He’s referring, of course, to the offer sheet he signed with Memphis in 2008, which Atlanta subsequently matched. (The Hawks can thank the Grizzlies for being able to keep Smith with a reasonable deal.)
It bothers Smith he had to create a market for himself to get a satisfactory contract from the Hawks (though at least he didn’t have to leave the country like Josh Childress). Smith’s feelings were amplified when Al Horford got an extension before becoming a restricted free agent. So add that 2008 contract dance to Smith’s list of grievances with the Hawks.
The question now is whether Smith can be persuaded to sign an extension with the Hawks. My educated guess is Smith won’t do it. The Hawks may be able to make Smith feel more appreciated with their public comments, but what can can do about Smith’s main gripe, that they aren’t committed to winning a championship?
It seems unlikely the Hawks will even spend the full mid-level on a free agent. Remember what happened after Smith, Horford and Joe Johnson called on the Hawks to make some major moves during training camp? The Hawks ended up signing an assortment of minimum-salaried free agents, with two of those players on non-guaranteed deals.
Nor do trades look like a very promising way to placate Smith. Any deal that involves sending away Horford could leave as many holes as it covers. If trading Johnson is possible, it almost certainly means taking back another burdensome contract.
Zaza Pachulia and Jeff Teague are assets because they are productive players with reasonable contracts. But those are also good reasons to keep them. As for Marvin Williams, there hasn’t been a market for him for going on three years now.
The irony is that one of the best ways for the Hawks to bring in a major piece is to trade Smith. His production, experience and expiring contract make him an attractive target. So does the sense that he’s still yet to fully reach his potential, though that’s a reality that cuts both ways for the Hawks.
Are the Hawks beyond hoping Smith can become a superstar for them? How much is he worth? If the Hawks don’t think they can persuade Smith to commit beyond next season, do they aggressively try to trade him before the deadline or risk losing him for nothing next summer?
I’m genuinely interested to see how all that plays out. The Hawks have a recent history of overvaluing their own players. Michael Gearon Jr. does have a deep appreciation for Smith, even if Smith doesn’t think Gearon or his partners have done enough to show it.
For his part, Smith deflected questions about his standing trade request, noting that he could be fined for talking about it. But he didn’t sound as if he expects to be traded in the offseason.
“All I know is I have one more year on my contract so I will definitely be here,” he said. “I just have to go into the offseason to better myself and do whatever I have to do to help this ballclub. I was an Atlanta Hawk after the trade deadline and I’m one now, so I have to look at some of the things I can do to help my basketball team win ballgames, especially in the postseason.”
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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1,015 comments Add your comment
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
9:26 pm
“Again, the final 33 games of the season when he started to get consistent 20 field goal attempts a game.”
Those numbers look impressive until you look at how he got them:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shot_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=smithjo03&match=single&year_id=2012&is_playoffs=N&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=34&game_num_max=66&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&shot_pts=&is_make=&shot_type=&shot_distance_min=&shot_distance_max=&q1=Y&q2=Y&q3=Y&q4=Y&q5=Y&time_remain_minutes=12&time_remain_seconds=0&time_remain_comp=le&margin_min=&margin_max=&c1stat=&c1comp=ge&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=ge&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg
Shot 46% overall, and 25% on 3s. The numbers would look better if he took better shots, but as stated earlier, he still took the same ISOs and spot ups that hurt the Hawks offense. There was also a point when he whiend about not getting enough shots when he was the #1 option.
He had a 28% Usage Rate (pct of team’s possession used by a player), which means he was getting the ball as much as any star would, so where is the responsibility for taking all of those terrible shots that ended up costing the Hawks games? He’s like a bigger version of Monta Ellis on offense.
Just Joe
May 26th, 2012
9:33 pm
Grandad and I have a similar wish list (acquire an additional mid first round pick), we just have different views on who we would draft.
Grandad likes Harkless in the mid-first, I prefer Dion Waiters.
Grandad likes Nicholson at 23, I prefer Draymon Green.
Both of my guys are considered “undersized”, but they play much bigger than their height. Green at 6′6″ (maybe 6′7″) averaged over 10 boards a game in the Big 10, is considered a great passer, and has a sweet looking jumper even out to 3 pt range. I see him working on his conditioning and settling in at SF. Waiters is strong and solid at 6′4″ 220 lbs. Attacks the basket, pushes tempo, and always defends. Both of these guys have strong leadership skills as well. Look up Green’s all American clip on YouTube. Izzo raves about this guy.
Grandad has a good eye for talent, not putting down his selections. I just strongly believe that these two guys could go a long way in toughening up this team, along with bringing back Ivan.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
9:39 pm
Also, Horford has never had a usage rate higher than 20% in his career… Josh, Joe and even Jamal were always higher (meaning, they got more opportunities), even though each of those three players are less efficient than Al on offense.
The Hawks have also traditionally ranked near the bottom in pace (number of possessions for each team in a game), which means they play WAY too slow and using too much of the clock in boring ISO instead of running… which is doubling down on stupidity for any team that has their most inefficient players taking the most shots.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
9:46 pm
Thanks for the “nimbers” nothcyde and Sugar Ray.
Opinion: All Whatever will be a 4th option at the most on offense for a team headed to an ECF or Finals due to his severe lack of offensive skills..[AllStar? Hmmmmmm]
Fact: We’ll never find out with him playing for the Hawks…..
FYI: AllStar AL had 7 TO’s in the elimination/money game [ Efficient? Okay whatever]…Maybe he should have called in sick that day? lol!
Or maybe he needs to stop leading the break like Magic used too? I’m just saying…
Just silly=44 years and counting
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
9:48 pm
From MC’s article on ajc.com;
The blot on Smith’s season was his poor offensive efficiency. He was a bigger part of Atlanta’s offense than he had been in his career and had his least efficient scoring season as his game continued to migrate to the perimeter.
According to hoopdata.com, Smith attempted 401 field goals from between 16 and 23 feet, which is the least efficient shot distance in basketball. Only Lakers star Kobe Bryant attempted more shots from that distance..
Numbers don’t lie, but the Josh Smith apologists will come up with all kinds of reasons why Josh is taking so many jumpers.
Smith’s jump shot has improved: He made 37 percent of his long 2-point shots, which isn’t far off the league average of 38.1 percent. But he took those shots at the expense of attempts at the basket, where his 68.1 percent shooting ranked sixth among power forwards with at least 200 shots.
As a result, Smith posted a career-low true shooting percentage of 49.9 percent. The metric accounts for 3-point field goals and free throws.
Hawks coach Larry Drew said he thinks Smith played closer to the basket early in the season before shifting more outside. He said Smith’s sore knee contributed to that development..
I think lack of a quality HC also contributed to that development. However, Josh takes most of the blame (imo). He needs to play to his strengths, and not try to do too much.
“As the season wore on, particularly when he started experiencing some injury, I thought he moved out on the floor a little bit with not taking as much of a banging,” Drew said. “When you’ve got a bad knee and you are banging down there, every jolt you get, you feel it..
If LD said this about Al, Ra’mon and others would quickly use the opportunity to criticize Al again. .
northcyde
May 26th, 2012
9:50 pm
LOL . . the person who voted JJ 1st team all-defense is either a major ATL homer in the media, or believes in the validity of the Opponent Counterpart per 48 minutes number.
Joe Johnson Opponent Counterpart numbers ( per 48 minutes )
@ SG: 16.7 ppg . . 5.8 rebs . . 3.6 asst . . 46% eFG . . PER – 10.0
The two other guards Opponent Counterpart numbers
1st teamer Tony Allen
@ SG: 16.7 ppg . . 7.2 rebs . . 2.6 asst . . 46% eFG . . PER – 14.4
2nd teamer Kobe Bryant
@ SG: 19.4 ppg . . 4.0 rebs . . 4.3 asst . . 48% eFG . . PER – 12.8
And Josh only got 8 points? ( 2 1st place votes and 4 2nd place votes ).
And Iguodala’s defensive numbers are simply off the charts . . and he doesn’t make EITHER TEAM? He’s the best perimeter defender in the league, and the main reason why the Sixers are even still playing right now.
northcyde
May 26th, 2012
9:58 pm
The Sixers are just gutty. Scratching and clawing for everything. Making this game as ugly as possible and trying to score quickly when they play great defense. I hope they pull this out.
Iggy looking like a superstar this quarter.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:00 pm
Ob, there’s only me that see All Whatever for what he is.. Overrated…This blog is a love fest for All Whatever.. That’s why I go so hard at the so called AllStar playing out of position supposedly..
Opinion: he’ll get spanked at the 4 with his tricky one handed dribble. His assist avg should rise when he cant shoot his patented 50’s set shot because the that smaller quicker 4 will come out and guard him..See the Chicago 2nd rd playoffs last season…Whatever…….
Oh did I forget to mention he’s one the best bigs @ escorting dribble penetrating guards to the rim unabated? I almost forgot! Excuse me Sir………………….
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:00 pm
Josh is very turnover prone… did you forget how Game 5 ended? And who saved them from being bounced at home?
With Josh and Joe getting the most shots this season, the Hawks offense was terrible. 16th in offensive rating, 22nd in pace, 17th in pts per game.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html#misc::10
Those are the facts. I mean, you guys can ignore them all you want, but the bottom line is the Hawks offense IS what holds them back year after year, and it seems like you guys can’t let go of Josh. Maybe you all prefer his watching ISOs and missed missed dunks more than winning a championship. Unless they feature more efficient players such as Horford more often, it will be more of the same. Simple as that.
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:02 pm
There are 2 things that should be at the top of Josh’s offseason goals. 1) Improve his handles, especially going right and 2) Improve his FT %. Last year, he only shot 63% from the line (he is a career 70%).
Josh has always worked on his game, so I expect him to be even better next season.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:04 pm
“I think lack of a quality HC also contributed to that development. However, Josh takes most of the blame (imo). He needs to play to his strengths, and not try to do too much.”
This is true, coaching plays a part in it, but can anyone name the #1 option type players who significantly improved their shooting after their prime? Jason Kidd is one, but he never wanted to be “the man” on any offense. Who else?
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:09 pm
Opinions: All has peaked.. Josh has not..
If Josh had played four years of college ball, he would have just finished his 4th season in the NBA? Fascinating…
All would still be riding the bench if he came straight out of High school..How silly of me to make such a rash statement….Whatever…….
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:09 pm
slimjr, everything you just said about tricky one hand dribbles describes Josh. He has no handle, most people in here would probably say Al has the better handle actually. Teague’s progression makes life better for BOTH Al and Josh, difference is Al can make those open jumpers, whereas Josh relies on speed which won’t be around forever.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:11 pm
Can’t say Al has peaked when his numbers have improved nearly across the board every season he has been in the league (four years less than Josh has been in), while Josh’s have basically stayed the same or gotten worse in some case, only difference is Josh is getting more shots (which means more misses).
northcyde
May 26th, 2012
10:12 pm
O’Brien . . that stat on Josh’s mid-range attempts is an unacceptable number. If you add the playoffs, that number jumps to 430 attempts. If you add the 3 point attempts, he took 543 shots from 16+ feet. For comparison, Joe Johnson took 604 shots from 16+ feet
JJ shot 38.6% from that range
Josh shot 33.8% from that range
But people give him a pass on that, even the dang coach. It’s unacceptable to me. There’s no way this team can ever reach its potential, with both of those guys taking the same type of shots. May as well move Josh to SF, and trade JJ for a good rebounding PF, if Josh is going to take those type of shots.
northcyde
May 26th, 2012
10:14 pm
Come on Philly. The onlyway you’re winning this game is if you play defense and score in transition. Can’t depend on Lou Williams to save the day. It has to be a team defensive effort.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:14 pm
Yes a great pt. guard changes everything{See Lin in New York}..
Woody should win between 57-65 games next season!!
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:16 pm
Its a LOVE FEST! Hehehehe
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:16 pm
“If Josh had played four years of college ball, he would have just finished his 4th season in the NBA? Fascinating”
Hypotheticals won’t work. If Josh played college ball, he likely wouldn’t take all of those bad shots. But that’s something we’ll never know. He’s a flawed player on offense and his bad shot selection hurts the offense in the regular season and the playoffs.
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:16 pm
Slim,
I am a fan of Al Horford, but I agree that his best position is Center (he needs to dedicate himself physically and mentally to be the best center he can be), and I think Josh is a better PF than AL.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:18 pm
Sugar Ray, you keep this up Big Al is going to buy you season tickets to sit behind him….LOL!!!
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:22 pm
Josh defense off the ball is second to none..How’s that AllStars playing out of position? Hmmmmmm
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:23 pm
You know, the Knicks are a great exmaple of what I’m talking about actually.
Melo and Amare went down at seperate times, but the team didn’t miss a beat. I think we’d all agree both of them are good players. Still, the Knicks didn’t start losing until Lin went down. Bottom line, a decent ballhandler can keep the ship afloat. Everyone should know that. But once the high usage/inefficient players start going for their own and taking bad shots, you get embarrassed by good teams.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:25 pm
OB, I totally agree. He should stick to what got him the AllStar invites..Why wreck a good gig?
Imagine him going up against Ducan, Kevin, and LaMarcus at the 4? Oh the humanity……
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:27 pm
I said that to give credit to Teague, who played all 66 games this year. If he went down, they would have lost many more games, maybe even missed the playoffs.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:28 pm
Boston is going to the finals and get swept by the Spurs….
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:30 pm
If Al’susage increases, I think his efficiency will decrease, one reason being he still needs to work on creating his own shot.
northcyde
May 26th, 2012
10:31 pm
When I saw those 16+ shooting stats on Josh a week or two ago, I called it an almost “fireable offense” for Drew allowing him to do that. LOL @ 2nd in the league in midrange jumpers, next to Kobe. Wow.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:32 pm
“Sugar Ray, you keep this up Big Al is going to buy you season tickets to sit behind him….LOL!!!”
I could say the same thing for you if Josh is shipped out. You seem to care more about his wittle feelings and enabling his dumb decisions than actually making this team a contender haha. I’m guessing you will desert the Hawks and be cheering him on wherever he goes.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:32 pm
OB he cant create his own shot and this dude wants to play the 4 spot? Hahahahhaaaaaaa….
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:34 pm
If Rondo ever develops a consistent jump shot, he will be close to unguardable (imo).
Even if they lose, Philly had a good run, pushing it to a game7, despite not having home court advantage (we lost in 6).
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:35 pm
O”Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:30 pm
“If Al’s usage increases, I think his efficiency will decrease, one reason being he still needs to work on creating his own shot.”
Excellent point OB!!!!
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:36 pm
The Sixers are about to lose to the Celtics for the same reason the Hawks lost: Bad shot selection.
PHI and ATL have talent, but their best players got selfish and their coaches stuck by bad role players. Same thing happened to the Pacers.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:37 pm
Doug Collins coaching the Hawks squad with home court defeats Boston in 5!
Yep!
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:38 pm
Spurs will crush the men in Green…
O"Brien
May 26th, 2012
10:40 pm
northcyde,
Did you hear LD’sinterview on 790 the zone? If not, you should check it out. I dont think he gives Josh the freedom to do whatever he wants.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:41 pm
:If Al’s usage increases, I think his efficiency will decrease, one reason being he still needs to work on creating his own shot”
Kinda of a ridiculus statement. Creating your shot means nothing if you take bad shots. Monta Ellis and Jamal Crawford can create their own shots, but I’ll take someone like Steve Novak or Tyson Chandler over both of them. I mean, I can prove that Josh offense gets worse. I have also shown that Al’s numbers get better over the course of a game. The Hawks proved Josh can’t get them out of the first round as the guy getting the most shots, and their offense is the reason.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:46 pm
How many guys on the Spurs can create their own shot? Parker, Manu, maybe Duncan. Yet they have the best offense in the league and cruised to the West Finals. Then you have a team like the Knicks FULL oof ISO players who are selfish and can “create their own shot” and they can’t even make their first round series competitive. Some of yall just like the dunks and then you wonder why the team can’t go any further? haha
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
10:50 pm
Hey OB, now we are silly and rediculus..Is this guy related to the “screamer” [KS better known as kill shot not the Kimmer straying]?
OB, he’s only got one shot, so his assist rate will go up cause if you watch closely he gives it up rather quickly when is set shot is guarded by #4’s….The rock becomes a hot potatoe in his hands like his buddy Marvin!
High-sider
May 26th, 2012
10:51 pm
The NBA – Where Clutch Happens
Rajon Rondo’s stats in a closeout and elimination game [Game 7] – 18pts, 10rebs and 10asts
Do the Hawks [currently] have this type of “clutch” player?
Greg
May 26th, 2012
10:54 pm
Rick Bucher of ESPN is reporting that Marvin Williams has been traded to the Baghdad Camel Jockeys for 5 packs of smokes.
As for Josh, he’ll never admit it(and maybe he doesn’t even realize it, but he wouldn’t fit in on a championship caliber team. He wouldn’t be able to defer to the leaders of the team and the coaches wouldn’t tolerate his undisciplined play. Can you imagine Greg Popovich dealing with Josh? It would never happen because a team like the Spurs wouldn’t touch Josh with a 10 foot pole. He’ll likely end up somewhere like Toronto or Milwaukee or some other place where he can be one of the better individual players on a team that isn’t taken seriously by the leagues elite teams. In other words, it’ll be more of the same…except the new team and city won’t be nearly as tolerant as his hometown team and city.
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
10:57 pm
See what I mean? haha you love you some Josh. All Im doing is pointing out flaws in the man’s game and you act like they don’t exist, even when everyone else see it. Horford beats him in all these categories, and nothing but crickets to refture the evidence.
Personally, I don’t care about either of them. You seem to hate Al like you know him personally. I feel sorry for you if that’s the case. But the evidence points to Al points to the better player in the long run and less of a whiner/trade requester. Just the way it is haha.
brigadierjerry
May 26th, 2012
10:58 pm
Slimjr,
I know you arent a big fan of AL, but who exactly overrates him?He is what he is. Josh is more talented but do you think say for example Josh moves on goes to another team with a better coach, are we going to have this convo about Josh what he should and should not be doing with the ball?
Al has his limitations but if you did a poll on this blog about who they like better or who is a better player it will be overwhelmingly Josh so again who exactly is overrating Horford?
Al knows what he can and cannot do. He isnt a great player and he has faults. He is a Buck Williams type of player. Can get some boards and can score from the outside. Not a great post up player or great off the dribble. Josh sometimes has problems with that concept about what he should and should not do. That is really difference between the two players. Josh and Al have different skill sets. It would be one thing if they had similar games but they do, so I dont get when people compare the two players.
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
11:00 pm
Its a love Fest Sugar Ray! HaHahahahah
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
11:02 pm
Sugar Ray throwing sugar! Big Al loves ya man! Hehehehe..
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
11:03 pm
Prediction:Knicks will wrestle with whoever for the #1 seed in the East! Nice……
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
11:05 pm
Nice comparo to Buck Bjerry!
Slimjr
May 26th, 2012
11:19 pm
Hate?
“I dont personally know the man so the word [HATE] is an inappropriate word to define how I feel about him or his game” -Slimjr-
Is his game overrated in my opinion? Yes..
And we’ll leave it at that Kapish?
From now on when you guys use the word [Hate] referencing me and my one cent describing my opinions regarding All whatever’s game I will reuse that quote above..
Regards,
Sir Slimjr
Sugar Ray
May 26th, 2012
11:24 pm
Both players can get you 18-10 every game… but one won’t need 6 more shots to do it haha
Rod from College Park
May 26th, 2012
11:39 pm
“How many guys on the Spurs can create their own shot? Parker, Manu, maybe Duncan. Yet they have the best offense in the league and cruised to the West Finals.,”
Umm, those are the 3 best players on the team. LOL, Coincidence, I think not.