Atlanta Hawks: On Josh Smith’s future

Before Josh Smith started his summer vacation, he was asked about the possibility of signing a contract extension with the Hawks.

“I can’t get extended,” Smith said. “They didn’t give me the money; I had to go get it. That’s something I have to play it out and see how it goes from there.”

Two things stand out about that statement. The first is that Smith, who presumably got the info from his agent, is wrong about his contract not being eligible for an extension.

I looked at Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ and could see no reason why Smith is not eligible for an extension. It’s been at least three years since he signed the deal, it’s never been renegotiated and it doesn’t include an opt-in. I checked with Coon and he confirmed the Hawks can extend Smith’s deal (they actually have been able to do so since August).

But the more interesting aspect of Smith’s statement is his allusion to having to “go get” his contract. He’s referring, of course, to the offer sheet he signed with Memphis in 2008, which Atlanta subsequently matched. (The Hawks can thank the Grizzlies for being able to keep Smith with a reasonable deal.)

It bothers Smith he had to create a market for himself to get a satisfactory contract from the Hawks (though at least he didn’t have to leave the country like Josh Childress). Smith’s feelings were amplified when Al Horford got an extension before becoming a restricted free agent. So add that 2008 contract dance to Smith’s list of grievances with the Hawks.

The question now is whether Smith can be persuaded to sign an extension with the Hawks. My educated guess is Smith won’t do it. The Hawks may be able to make Smith feel more appreciated with their public comments, but what can can do about Smith’s main gripe, that they aren’t committed to winning a championship?

It seems unlikely the Hawks will even spend the full mid-level on a free agent. Remember what happened after Smith, Horford and Joe Johnson called on the Hawks to make some major moves during training camp? The Hawks ended up signing an assortment of minimum-salaried free agents, with two of those players on non-guaranteed deals.

Nor do trades look like a very promising way to placate Smith. Any deal that involves sending away Horford could leave as many holes as it covers. If trading Johnson is possible, it almost certainly means taking back another burdensome contract.

Zaza Pachulia and Jeff Teague are assets because they are productive players with reasonable contracts. But those are also good reasons to keep them. As for Marvin Williams, there hasn’t been a market for him for going on three years now.

The irony is that one of the best ways for the Hawks to bring in a major piece is to trade Smith. His production, experience and expiring contract make him an attractive target. So does the sense that he’s still yet to fully reach his potential, though that’s a reality that cuts both ways for the Hawks.

Are the Hawks beyond hoping Smith can become a superstar for them? How much is he worth? If the Hawks don’t think they can persuade Smith to commit beyond next season, do they aggressively try to trade him before the deadline or risk losing him for nothing next summer?

I’m genuinely interested to see how all that plays out. The Hawks have a recent history of overvaluing their own players. Michael Gearon Jr. does have a deep appreciation for Smith, even if Smith doesn’t think Gearon or his partners have done enough to show it.

For his part, Smith deflected questions about his standing trade request, noting that he could be fined for talking about it. But he didn’t sound as if he expects to be traded in the offseason.

“All I know is I have one more year on my contract so I will definitely be here,” he said. “I just have to go into the offseason to better myself and do whatever I have to do to help this ballclub. I was an Atlanta Hawk after the trade deadline and I’m one now, so I have to look at some of the things I can do to help my basketball team win ballgames, especially in the postseason.”

Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat

1,015 comments Add your comment

Rufus1

May 25th, 2012
5:53 pm

Sugar Ray… Great Post!!!!

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
3:31 pm

DISCIPLINE & TALENT is what makes you great….TALENT without DISCIPLINE makes you Charles Barkley… No Rings.

Lack of DISCIPLINE is a sign of intelligence…. and Josh is the MOST UNDISCIPLINED player on our team.

Grandad

May 25th, 2012
5:54 pm

Slimjr

-about yesterday-

Your abomination for Al distresses me.

You are entitled, of course.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
5:56 pm

Compare Josh’s shooting chart I posted at 5:34pm with Al’s shooting chart below:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shooting.cgi?player_id=horfoal01&year_id=2012

All you really need to see how Al’s offense actually IMPROVES each quarter.

1st – .400 FG%
2nd – .586
3rd – .605
4th – .667

Shooting 58% with under 3 minutes in the quarter. 53% when it’s a 5pt of closer margin.

Then look at his shooting numbers against Boston.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
6:10 pm

rufus1,

You are right, although I won’t dog Barkley since he did make the HOF. By Chuck’s 3rd season he was averaging 23 pts, 15 boards, 5 assists (woah). It took Josh eight seasons to crack double digits on the glass consistently. But yeah, Barkley could have been a Top 10 all time player in my opinion if he stayed within his game. Josh is just at the age where players are usually set in their ways.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
6:15 pm

Matter of fact, Barkley was still averaging 15 and 10 at age 36 with the Rockets… at 6′6″ tall with a bad back.

So being short is no excuse for today’s post players. Some just want to be jumpshooters but aren’t built for that life.

doc

May 25th, 2012
6:17 pm

Trade josh now, then consider all offers for jj.

VinnyD

May 25th, 2012
6:22 pm

As long as Joe Johnson is on this roster, they will never be top of the line competitive. He is an above average player making excessive amounts of money. His contract is unloadable. Can you think of any other “star” that you couldn’t trade away if you wanted? I would mortgage next year if we could unload him, trade Josh for something. Keep Al and Teague. We are stuck for years with that Joe contract that will be like an anchor tied to a canoe trying to go up the river.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
6:24 pm

I’m done venting Grandad….Whew….

Najeh Davenpoop

May 25th, 2012
6:25 pm

“Most coaches would rather have a guy who plays to his strengths, instead of someone is clearly not playing the right way (taking a lot of bad shots) and let it hurt the team.”

True. In other words, most coaches would rather have players that they have to spend less energy coaching. This is why coaches are usually not in charge of personnel decisions.

Grandad

May 25th, 2012
6:25 pm

Al Horford:
is one of those players of which I was speaking yesterday.
I truly believe he is a team 1st, team oriented, great teammate.
-No-
I am not saying Josh is not one oif those players.
-but-
Josh does not come across the same.
My feeling is Josh is totally misunderstood.
Josh and his list of culpability [deserverd or perceived]
*basketball IQ
*stubborn
*wishes to play elsewhere
*immature
*un/not-coachable
None of these are relating to Team or Teammates
-nor-
are they [un]correctable; possible exception being stubboness.
(in which case … everything else is dubious likewise)

My greater point;
Josh wishes to go, Al has made no such indication.

For those of you who constantly berate Al;
I think you are shameful.

This young man has done ‘ nothing ‘ to garner the enmity
that you folks spit out on a near daily basis.

I am proud that Al Horford is a Hawk;
it is no wonder others choose -not- to play here.
Why would they ?
If they realize that a nice young man like Al,
and one fine basketball player also,
cannot please a fan base that is basically of poor quality;
[admit it, we are]
then, no way a true SuperDuperStar will come here.

Yawl would treat Nash like Dung !

Yeas, I said it,
G-dad

Rufus1

May 25th, 2012
6:26 pm

@Sugar Ray

“So being short is no excuse for today’s post players. Some just want to be jumpshooters but aren’t built for that life.”-Sugar Ray

That is all most of us have said about Josh… JUST DO WHAT YOU DO WELL and STOP trying to be something you are NOT!!!

PS. You are presenting FACTS… Josh LOVERS don’t listen to facts.. They treat them like UFO sightings.

Najeh Davenpoop

May 25th, 2012
6:27 pm

“Josh played well during that stretch, but overall, it was marginally better than what he usually does. Just check out his career stats year by year, not much changed. ”

You can’t say Josh didn’t step his game up based solely on his stats and then in the same post say Al’s contributions go beyond the stat sheet. Josh assumed the role of the #1 option and it resulted in better ball movement and open rhythm shots for those shooters you give Rick Sund so much credit for finding.

Grandad

May 25th, 2012
6:27 pm

Dwight Howard is a Coward
-rhymes-
DH denying he had anything to do with VG firing !
-cowardly-

will

May 25th, 2012
6:29 pm

DON’T BLAME THE FANS IN THE ATL

After 43 yrs in the ATL, the hawks has never made it past the second rd of the playoffs. 43 YEARS, COME ON NOW!!!!

Don’t blame the fans. It’s the 43 yr product that they put on the court every season.

If they want fans, respect, and increase revenue, make it to the ECF, WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP!!!
and everything else will take care of itself.

5.5 million people in the A, are simply turned off. It’s just blows my mind 43 yrs. Look at Miami, Orlando, OKC, these teams arrived in their cities much later, they have at least made it to the ECF.

Najeh Davenpoop

May 25th, 2012
6:31 pm

“Who would you rather have on the Hawks: Russell Westbrook or James Harden?

Your answers will say a lot about what you value from a player/team concept.”

Your question tells me you’ve been watching too much Skip Bayless. Both of those players are indispensable to the Thunder.

Columbus

May 25th, 2012
6:32 pm

Josh is a really good player and even great sometimes. That being said, he still makes some poor decisions and has some growing to do, which is OK. The thing is even though he is great sometimes, he also hurts the team at other times. He needs some boundries and to play within them. He needs a coach that he has a little fear of AND he needs a leader on the court and the Hawks do nto have a leader or a coach that Josh will respect enough to play as the coach wants and benefits the team. If he does that, he would be an All-Star and the Hawks would be a better team. I also agree that ZaZa not playing hurt the team big time against Boston. Al is a very good player. Him and Josh are just different. IF Josh had the maturity and mentality of Al, Josh would be one of the top 5 players in the league. You dont see Al playing outside his game often. Josh does it at least half the game. Why he still stands around the 3-point line is mind-boggling. ALL the other teams guard everyone else but him and that is why he is ALWAYS open. He is a self-check. He should take a few steps in and he would be tearing it up but he is NOT a 3-point shooter! 2-3 steps in side the 3 point line and he is money. Along with DRIVING in, which he appears to be scared to do if he doesnt have an open lane. Just take 2 steps in Josh and forget the 3’s.

Grandad

May 25th, 2012
6:32 pm

Sugar Ray

James Harden

# 3 ranked two guard in NBA.

-by my standards-

“unless I`m forgetting someone” … Kobe; Wade; Harden: Afflalo

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
6:36 pm

Agree Grandad D12 got issues…He’s trying to spin it now…Wow…

Najeh Davenpoop

May 25th, 2012
6:37 pm

“Other than post-up, what does Joe do better than Harden right now in terms of skillset?”

I am a big Harden fan and I have no problem with ranking him as a top 5 NBA SG, but I would caution you against overrating him considering he is playing as the 3rd option on his team and never has to deal with the amount of defensive attention that Joe sees on a daily basis. Joe, in his last couple of years in Phoenix, had a role that was similar in many ways and flashed some of the same skills. Let’s not forget Joe averaged 25 points per game for a season shortly after he came here. Harden is good, but it is very possible he is no more of a franchise player than Joe. No way to know for sure until he is actually placed in that situation.

Harry Hawk

May 25th, 2012
6:38 pm

Josh should be traded. If the Hawks go about it the right way (i.e., by thinking of how to build a complete basketball team), they can do well in a Smoove trade. If not, they’ll just be the Hawks we really liked back in 2008 and eventually gave up on as a possible contender.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
6:42 pm

Yes put Harden in a starting role and lets see if he can maintain that degree of excellence especially when he will be targeted defensively game in and game out…

Najeh Davenpoop

May 25th, 2012
6:43 pm

“All you really need to see how Al’s offense actually IMPROVES each quarter.

1st – .400 FG%
2nd – .586
3rd – .605
4th – .667

Shooting 58% with under 3 minutes in the quarter. 53% when it’s a 5pt of closer margin.

Then look at his shooting numbers against Boston.”

How many of those shots does he create, and how many of them are created for him? How often is he double teamed and how often is Josh double teamed?

Not every shot is created equal. Josh’s efficiency numbers are lower than Al’s in part because of shot selection, but also in large part because Josh’s role on the offense is much greater than Al’s. Pretty much any player, when allowed to play a supporting role, is going to draw less defensive attention and consequently shoot a higher percentage. This is why, for example, Joe as a Hawk hasn’t even come close to the shooting percentages he put up toward the end of his time in Phoenix.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
6:45 pm

“You can’t say Josh didn’t step his game up based solely on his stats and then in the same post say Al’s contributions go beyond the stat sheet. Josh assumed the role of the #1 option and it resulted in better ball movement and open rhythm shots for those shooters you give Rick Sund so much credit for finding.”

Then how much criticism does Josh deserve for all of those terribly inefficient shooting stats I posted on the first page? I’m sure he does a lot of things that go unnoticed just like Al, and Zaza, etc. But it’s obvious that the Hawks’ biggest weakness has always been shot selection on offense, and with him as the #1 option this season, the glaring holes grew even more and the team made an earlier exit in the playoffs. All I see his fans doing is blaming everything on the coach, no responsibility on the player whatsoever, and we’re talking about about someone who has been in the league for 8-9 years.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
6:48 pm

“Your question tells me you’ve been watching too much Skip Bayless. Both of those players are indispensable to the Thunder.”

False, I did not criticize Westbrook and believe he is also a Top 5 PG. Nice try though. My focus is on what kind of player/skillset each person would want.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
6:49 pm

Flip the Switch…..

What if Josh went down for 3 months and Al had to became the #1 or #2 scoring option? Hmmmmm

Oh boy….

I thought I was done?

ryan

May 25th, 2012
6:52 pm

Were does Josh end up this summer and who will the Hawks go after or will it be draft picks .

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
6:54 pm

“I am a big Harden fan and I have no problem with ranking him as a top 5 NBA SG, but I would caution you against overrating him considering he is playing as the 3rd option on his team and never has to deal with the amount of defensive attention that Joe sees on a daily basis.”

Harden is often guarded by the opposing teams best perimeter defender and is still unstoppable on the PNR, transition, spotting up, etc. Just because Lebron is clearly the dominant player on the Heat doesn’t mean Bosh is overrated.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
6:57 pm

If Sund decides over the weekend to re-up, then expect Josh to play thru the end of his contract then become a UFA not accept the 63-65 million offer from Sund and walk..

The Hawks get nothing…[ See JC1 previous off season, history repeating itself]

prison mike

May 25th, 2012
7:04 pm

The lulls in offense come from someone not controlling tempo which falls on the point guard and coach. You have to have someone that can control the offense and I’m not talking about iso Joe.

Harpie

May 25th, 2012
7:04 pm

Josh Smith fans don’t seem to realize that a player’s ability is not determined solely by the positive things he does ( rebounds, points scored, etc. ). You have to take into account the negatives, too. And, when you subtract Josh’s negatives from his positives, you find out why he wasn’t in the All -Star game. If he had a decent coach, he might become a truly great player, but right now he’s just pretty good. He has a lot of potential going to waste.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:05 pm

“Josh’s efficiency numbers are lower than Al’s in part because of shot selection, but also in large part because Josh’s role on the offense is much greater than Al’s.”

As bad as those shooting stat look for Josh, do you believe he should get more shots than Horford?

This group would be better off in a pick and roll offense since Teague is a good ballhandler and Al is one of the best pick n pop bigs in the league. Josh’s role should be some post plays and plenty of cuts to the basket for dunks and easy lay-ins… but the problem is he doesn’t like to post up. Joe needs to be running off screens and spotting up on the wing. But none of this happens because Josh and Joe love to break the play via isolations and take bad shots… it looks bad to viewers, which is why people clown them and Hawks attendance because no one wants to watch ugly selfish brick filled offense.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:11 pm

I’m looking at Synergy data right now.

Josh had 377 spot up possessions this seasons, more than Steve Novak and Kyle Korver combined.

Just sit back and think about that for while.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
7:14 pm

All I’m going to say is this and then I’m done. In previous playoffs series All NBA would virtually disappears..2012 does not count[fresher legs than everyone else since being injured for 3 months]

In reality because of his inability to create his own shot he should be a 4th option at least on offense..

If Josh had 3-4 years left on his contract All would be shopped pronto..

I’m done, I hope?

Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:15 pm

Well back to the old drawing board question

1. How many people seriously believe we’ll even be higher than a 8th seed next year or whenever Josh leaves

Look If I was a GM I’m keeping Al and Josh based on the previous 4 years I’m building around Teague, Zaza, Josh, and Al.

I’d have been dumped Marvin Duck butt Williams like MC said there is no market for Marvin.

Whatever hate you have at either Al or Josh direct all that towards Joe and Marvin both didn’t show up.

OH BTW WE HAVE NO LEADERS ON THIS TEAM! NOT AL NOT JOSH NOT JOE NOT EVEN TEAGUE!

Joe is a mute Josh wears his emotions on his sleeve and Al is that guy who’ll say something, but never gets into anyone’s face. Basically a fake boss

We have no David West’s, Garnetts, D-wade’s, Duncans, or Chandlers on this team.

No knock on our guys, but we honestly don’t have a leader some are close, but not qualified.

prison mike

May 25th, 2012
7:22 pm

Smith lead all power forwards in assists. 2nd only to Love in defensive rebounds. 2nd in steals. 6th in points per game. 2nd in blocks.

He is ready to break out next season. He’s going to pack on a few more pounds and work on the right hand to get more comfortable. The team needs a vet point that can get all four guys to trust him at the right moments.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:29 pm

“All I’m going to say is this and then I’m done. In previous playoffs series All NBA would virtually disappears..2012 does not count[fresher legs than everyone else since being injured for 3 months]

In reality because of his inability to create his own shot he should be a 4th option at least on offense..”

Inability to create his own shot is irrelevant in this case because terrible shot selection and shooting %s will always overshadow that. Prime Ray Allen isn’t as good of a ballhandler/isolation player as Carmelo, but most people would still take Allen if given the choice. The goal on each possession is to get the best shot. Joe used to get his own shot better than both of them but everyone complained about it. Bottom line is Horford’s numbers still leave Josh in the dust and like I said before, his unlike most players, Al’s %s improve throughout the game.

Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:36 pm

@ Sugar Ray

The most damning thing against Horford why are no teams asking for him why instead are they asking for Josh Smith?

Apparently they know something the ASG, but we the fans do Josh is a game changer If we have all our pieces on the court and they played like they were suppose to be We’d be in a ECF battle with the Heat and we just might win the battle.

Why because look at the Pacers roster and look at ours besides the advantage of Hibbert and David West what else does the Pacers have over us maybe coaching, but we’ll see on that.

doc

May 25th, 2012
7:45 pm

Glad woody got the job, deserved it and maybe he can move on. As far as loyalty and doing what is necessary to get the job at whatever the cost, maybe before we down ld so much read what the hypocrite did to get the job himself:

Woodson denied recent reports that he had replaced agent Joe Glass under pressure from Dolan to avoid having to work again with former coach Larry Brown’s representation. Woodson confirmed he switched to CAA, but said it was his choice, and that agent Terry Prince had worked on his contract.

Yeah right woody.

Sugar Ray

May 25th, 2012
7:49 pm

“The most damning thing against Horford why are no teams asking for him why instead are they asking for Josh Smith?”

When the Hawks made a run at Dwight this past offseason, Orlando wanted Horford, but it was nixed mainly because Dwight did/does not want to play in Atlanta.

Josh should be the one traded… “sell high” on players like a stock. People keep ignoring all of these reasons that HE is ASKING to be dealt. Why keep someone who doesn’t want to stay and disses you as fans? Doesn’t make any sense to me. Sounds very similar to the situation with Joe actually. If they cut bait and traded Joe when he had high vaue and wanted out, they wouldn’t be in this position. You fans shouldn’t want them to overpay another guy who will increase the amount of jumpers taken as he gets older and his athleticism fades.

doc

May 25th, 2012
7:51 pm

Slimj don’t,miss what I just put up there and all you ld haters wanting to make stories that aren’t real only conjectures and the mind games these guys have to pull on themselves to motivate themselves and within Woody. MJ was the best at it only he lost his hate when he left the court. So he is going to try sloan after failing with larry? I don’t think it is going to work any better.

TMACfan

May 25th, 2012
7:56 pm

Astro Joe

May 25th, 2012
8:03 pm

A few months ago there was a rumor that Marvin wanted to be traded because of his limited role with the Hawks. Within 48 hours (if not sooner) Marvin put that rumor to rest by simply going on the record with the AJC beat writer. JOsh claims he would be fined for talking about a trade (I’ve never heard that before), but would he be fined for saying what Marvin said? Was Marvin fined for saying that he is happy being a Hawk?

Kind of funny, how even off the court, Josh doesn’t quite get stuff right… “I can’t get an extension because of the Memphis offer sheet”.

Josh “Can’t Get Right”.

Astro Joe

May 25th, 2012
8:11 pm

doc, I am missing the connection between firing someone who provides you a service for a fee (an agent) and having a lead assistant suggest that he can do a better job than his boss who put him in that lead role. The agent has many clients and the nature of that position is one of churn… clients come and go. Having a lead assistant allegedly betray you seems like something less ordinary. I think your staff is suppsed to be like family, while your agent is essentially a hired gun. You work with your staff each and everyday, I doubt that head coaches speak to their agents more than 2x/month. One is like your “your boy”, the other is like your barber or tailor.

Slimjr

May 25th, 2012
8:57 pm

doc I saw your post:

First congrats to Woody..May he continue to win 75% of his games and challenge Chicago for the#1 seed in the Eastern Conference next season…If they acquire Steve Nash (UFA) after July 1st they could challenge for the Finals….

Second, AJ’s response to your post is better than anything I can write.[ I co-sign]

drmaryb.(*_*).

May 25th, 2012
9:02 pm

Spent!

“I will never understand why everyone butcher’s the ASG. This year they had the 9th highest payroll and the 7th worst attendence.” – jim -
______________

Because, they don’t spend wisely. If your worst neighbor spent 61M on an olive green Ford Pinto, and, parked it beside your 39M Mabach? Would you be impressed?

Maybach Landaulet Convertible (Daimler AG)
MSRP from $1,382,750

drmaryb.(*_*).

May 25th, 2012
9:09 pm

Hawks 61M guaranteed salaries for 2012
76ers 39M guaranteed salaries for 2012
__________

76ers takes the green people of Boston to a game 7 in round 2.
___________

‘Nuff Said, jim. Go buy your season tickets for 2012-2013 so we can see you get clowned on TV from:

a leather couch, Hienekens on ice and a 70″ Samsung Flat Screen. The money we save, we can put a stripper pole off to the side and, rotate three hot chicks in and out at half-time.

Bang for the entertainment bucks – well spent. LOL

doc

May 25th, 2012
9:09 pm

AJ sorry to see your naïveté. Dolan and the group that is called CAA is connected at the hip. If woody were really loyal he would have stayed with the group that brought him there. By ditching them and going with Dolan’s group he is doing what is best for him and his family to make sure he gets what he wants in spite of a long term relationship that would be a thorn in his new bosses side. Isn’t that all LD did once Woody had buried himself was to do what was in his grasp in spite of previous loyalties, just like Woody has done and why the question was brought to him by the press? “Woody, did you make the change to get the job? Oh no, says woody I was going to make the change of my own accord” but obviously my own loyal assistant I wouldn’t let leave for greener assures is a bad guy. Don’t play dumb AJ.

AJ if you believe it then I feel for ya. You have seen too much of it in your own life in business and palace politics. That was also a long term relationship Woody had or the new York press who will see right through any false pretense like barracuda in a school of red snapper would never have brought it to light, no?

Anyway, I doubt the churn side you speak of among stable coaches and players. Most times unless it is a TO client there are few changes.

drmaryb.(*_*).

May 25th, 2012
9:10 pm

Wassup Slim – juice?

doc

May 25th, 2012
9:13 pm

Slimj bury your head if you want. I am pleased for Woody, really though I thought his false pretense was sad. That is true especially now that he throws an old relationship under the bus like he claimed LD did. Sorry if you can’t see the hypocrisy in it. Business is business ain’t it Woody?

drmaryb.(*_*).

May 25th, 2012
9:16 pm

DUI Patrol!

“Lack of DISCIPLINE is a sign of intelligence…” -Rufus1-
______

So then, is a “Plethora of DISCIPLINE” a sign of stupidity?