Atlanta Hawks: The Horford effect
Boston–I mentioned in the Game 5 postgame blog that it had been so long since Al Horford played center for the Hawks it was kind of astonishing to see the difference. I’m sure the Celtics must feel the same.
Fired up the Synergy Sports Technology machine to look at Atlanta’s offensive possessions in Game 5. There was, as expected, lots of visual evidence that the threat of Horford (and Horford himself) helped lead to some good scoring opportunities for the Hawks:
- There were four possessions used in which Horford was the roll man. He missed two open pick-and-pop Js in the second quarter and later twice scored rolling to the basket.
- There was one screen-roll in which Horford’s presence led to two free-throw attempts for Marvin Williams. Marvin turned the corner off Horford’s pick and Greg Stiemsma was late coming over to challenge Marvin because he couldn’t leave Horford.
- There were 11 good spot-up attempts in which the defense was influenced by Horford’s presence. Five were by Horford himself, with three of those good looks coming after Kevin Garnett left Al to freelance (habit, I guess). Josh Smith got three good spot-up chances after his man pinched in to help from the weakside on Al’s roll to the basket. Marvin made three 3-pointers off that same action.
- Al dunked on a cut to the basket on a familiar Hawks play: After Joe Johnson rubbed Ray Allen off off a pin-down screen, Brandon Bass took a step out to deny Johnson coming off the screen and Al quickly slipped to the basket to take a nice pass from Josh.
Before Al returned to this series, the Hawks didn’t have a center the Celtics had to worry much about on the roll, on the pop or in the post. Now there is one center they have to worry about for all of those play types. As Jeff Teague put it after Game 5: “He’s a real athletic guy, athletic roller. And his presence to be able to pick-and-pop and he can switch it up and roll, that’s big.”
Horford played 41 minutes and the Hawks had by far their most efficient scoring game of the series. Among the starters, Horford’s 0.9 points per possession were third to Marvin (1.25) and Teague. (1.0). Al’s four turnovers were the only blemish on his line.
Now we’ll see how effective Al can be in Game 6 after playing so many minutes in just his second game back. Can he go 40 minutes again?
“I do not know,” Horford said today before shootaround. “That might be a little bit of a stretch. I’ll come out and give a productive run but those guys [the backups] need to be ready.”
But Hoford latter added that if the circumstances dictate it “then I may have to go 40. There is no plan.”
My guess is the Hawks will need him to do it again.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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129 comments Add your comment
Ra'mon
May 10th, 2012
4:33 pm
Sautee, I’m with you on Horford (as you probably already know). I love his production and the heart he’s shown. At the same time, he’s not the leader of this team, and I couldn’t see him doing what Josh or Joe has done this season for an entire season. When people make the comment that Al played better this or that game, while he’s coming off of injury, they forget that he didn’t have to take his body through the grueling schedule the entire team just completed. This mainly shows that the Hawks can compete ANY TIME they have a CAPABLE center in the game. I firmly believe if Zaza was healthy this entire season, the Hawks would be up 3-2 at minimum. If the Hawks had Horford the entire series, they would be up on the Celtics or would have beaten the Celtics 4-1. Point being that Horford changes the series from allowing the Celtics to be able to double BOTH Joe on catch, and Josh on the post/drive. You have to choose your poison now.
O'brien
May 10th, 2012
4:38 pm
Marvin’s points tonight. Over/under 9.5?
I think Under for Marvin,
O'brien
May 10th, 2012
4:41 pm
Ra’mon,
At the same time, he’s not the leader of this team, and I couldn’t see him doing what Josh or Joe has done this season for an entire season..
1) Who is the leader of this team?
2) What has Joe done this season (against good teams)?
Ra'mon
May 10th, 2012
4:45 pm
OB, that’s a trick question. Marvin could go over 9.5 in garbage time, if the Hawks are blown out.
Desperate ATL Fan
May 10th, 2012
4:46 pm
@O’Brien, Under for Marvin.
Slimjr
May 10th, 2012
4:54 pm
The Pt. Center is indefensible..Will Larry, ah I mean All Whatever deploy his new weapon again tonight?
Stay tuned…
Najeh Davenpoop
May 10th, 2012
4:57 pm
“Marvin’s points tonight. Over/under 9.5?
I think Under for Marvin,”
Either Marvin, Kirk, T-Mac, or Ivan has to be over for the Hawks to have any chance to win tonight. I think if Green or Pargo is the guy who goes over it’s not going to help because they’ll give up just as many points on the other end.
Astro Joe
May 10th, 2012
4:58 pm
OB, Josh takes the most shots and is the most vocal, so other than those who stay fixated on how much ownership paid the dude 21 months ago, who is claiming that Joe is the leader? My guess is that no one in Philly readily defers to Brand just because their ownership paid him large several years ago. I think fans (and media) get caught up in salaries, I think players have more relevent information at their disposal when figuring out whose lead to follow.
Sure, there is video of howe to defend the Hawks with a healthy Horford, but there is also video of how to defend the Celtics. Heck, SVG had video of how to defend the Pacers. Studying is good and it obviously helps the coaching staff develop a game plan… but execution is more important. Celtics are almost as depleted as the hawks at hte big position. The addition of Al should also mean that we should NOT lose the rebounding battle against a poor rebounding team.
I’m not looking for Al to be anything more than a guy who can help us on the glass, move his feet on pick and roll plays with Rondo, provide another finisher on those rare fast break opportunities 9which will hopefully increase with better rebounding performance) and knock down 3-4 open mid-range jumpers. A reliable 3rd or 4th option… not a team savior.
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
4:58 pm
MC
Are you setting up interviews for a new gig. If so, can you ask some Larry King type questions next time you get in front of Sund & ‘Nem?
O'brien
May 10th, 2012
4:58 pm
I dont think Al is as talented as Josh.
But Last year, Al averaged 15.3 ppg, on 12 FGA per game. This year, Josh averaged 18.8 ppg on 17 FGA per game.
Last year, Al averaged 9.4 rpg, with Josh on the court with him. This year, Josh averaged 9.8 rpg, with Zaza and Twin on the court with him.
So with more shot attempts, and more rebounds available, why dont you think Al could do what Josh did?
Ra'mon
May 10th, 2012
5:00 pm
O’B, with the exception of game 3, Joe has done nothing against good teams this year, that I recall. But in the PAST, Joe has been the leader of this team, and lead this team to a top 4 seed. I’m saying in my opinion, Josh could do that. But I don’t think Al could. So much of Al’s offense is relied upon someone else creating the shot attempt for him (I.e. Pick and roll or Pick and pop). Al is a mismatch (this series unlike last year thus far) for Bass. Remember last season Al couldn’t score on Bass in the first round? The difference is, this season Josh is a better offensive player than he was last season. And Doc instructs his bigs to cheat over many times to deter the drive, as opposed to Orlando when D12 was the help defender for everyone. If Doc tells Bass to play Al straight up, then he will need Teague, Josh, and Joe to create attempts for him.
As for who is the leader of the team, its hard to answer that when its not even clear that the COACH is a leader. I don’t think either coach has taught any of these three how to be a true leader. Sad to say.
O'brien
May 10th, 2012
5:00 pm
AJ,
I dont think the Hawks have a leader on the court, on the sidelines, or in the front office.
kuhndog
May 10th, 2012
5:00 pm
I like Horford I dont know if he is out of gas or not,I really think Gearon didn’t need to say anything.Garnett is a HOF and does paly like all pro’s to get every edge.He gets aggressive and thats where the refs gotta tone it down.If the ref let the Cs play that kind D without out making the correct calls then their D will dominate.I have seen it in the past, good aggressive D OK but missed overly aggressive D where there are fouls thats where alot of the no calls happen, this snowballs and a team like Atl. where our mental toughness is in ? that we dont need .This is where Gearron and most talk about lack of calls I suspect.This is my frustrations too call it clamp down D what ever but a foul is a foul.I think Big Al is gassed and we could use a great shooting night by JJ like Pierce had in the blow out game.The only bad to this is the Cs get to rest their starters in a blow out too.Atl 91 Bos 86 GO HAWKS
Slimjr
May 10th, 2012
5:03 pm
Dont compare Josh to Al..
All whatever is the one handed dribbler…..
Astro Joe
May 10th, 2012
5:11 pm
OB, I think they have some mechanism to govern themselves. I’m one of the folk who don’t believe in the individual talent level of this roster, so there must be some reason they achieve success relataive to the other 14 teams in their conference year-after-year. And I personally don’t need to know if it is a committee of leaders, a dictatorship or some other process. I could give an ish… just win, baby.
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
5:11 pm
Obie … over for Marvin (13.5 pts)
KevinM
May 10th, 2012
5:14 pm
Slim, I really don’t want either dribbling the ball with Bradley and Rondo on their tail.
OB, why couldn’t you go against the grain and say Marvin gets us 12 and we have a legit shot tonight.
We can now say we matchup well…..now we have…
Bass…..Josh
KG…..Al
Pierce…Marvin
Bradley….Joe
Rondo…..JT
We take 3/5 of those, with KG and Al the tossup but Al should have the advantage.
Just keep Pierce off the foul line, because that doesn’t take effort.
We can talk about what changes are needed after the series. Right now, we have to beat all the odds……
These numbers are close…..Celtics are favored by 6….
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Boston’s No. 26-ranked offense, averaging 91.8 PPG, against a Hawks defense that ranks No. 6 at 93.2 PPG. The Celtics field goal percentage has averaged 46% so far, more than the Hawks shooters have achieved on the year, 45.4% per game.
Defensively, the Hawks feature the league’s No. 2-rated defense on the road, allowing 92.1 points per game. Boston, meanwhile, comes in at No. 28 in the league in scoring at home.
Last time out for Boston, they were an 87-86 loser as they battled the Hawks on the road. The Celtics covered in the match as a 2-point underdog, while 173 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. The Celtics got 16 points from Kevin Garnett, but it was Atlanta that prevailed in an 87-86 final on Tuesday at Philips Arena.
Atlanta Hawks Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing Boston are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
Boston Celtics Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing Atlanta are 8-2
After playing Atlanta are 8-2
After a loss are 8-2
Celtics have some advantages while those numbers don’t reflect Impact Al…Slim, if Al comes through and helps the Hawks over the hump tonight, you’re gonna have to give kudos for him heading into Game 7.
The Jones
May 10th, 2012
5:15 pm
Anyone get the feeling MC is just going through the motions and takes his job for granted?
Can’t even address the true fans on here
KevinM
May 10th, 2012
5:17 pm
To add to my last post, Sportsbooks has the Hawks -6.
Oddshark has the Hawks victorious tonight, 96-95 and the Hawks haven’t hit 90 points yet.
The end result is probably somewhere in between.
Astro Joe
May 10th, 2012
5:17 pm
I the Hawks win this series, Joe would have done nothing but lead the team in socring. Nothing. Guys, this is one of the 3 best defensive teams in the NBA. They don’t allow teams with 1-2 above avergae scorers to “go off”. If the Celtics win this series, the chances that someone from the 76ers scores more than 18/game against this team is slim to none. Same with the Pacers. And our roster is much more like the 76ers and Pacers than it is the Heat or Bulls (with DRose).
All this Joe has done nothing is amazing, we’re about to tie the series tonight and he is the only captain who has played in all 6 games. Nothing? We wouldn’t have a game blog in about 2 hours if Joe had done nothing against an elite defensive squad.
KevinM
May 10th, 2012
5:20 pm
I’m guessing the red jerseys are not the choice tonight after the last 2 decisions……
Najeh Davenpoop
May 10th, 2012
5:20 pm
“So with more shot attempts, and more rebounds available, why dont you think Al could do what Josh did?”
Efficiency tends to go down when you have to create more of your own shots. Al rarely has to create his shots. Josh often does, and when others create shots for him, too often it is someone who held the ball too long passing to him for a long jumper.
Najeh Davenpoop
May 10th, 2012
5:23 pm
Bill Simmons @sportsguy33
Uh-oh… Bill Kennedy is reffing tonight’s Celtics-Hawks game. I’m just going to start drinking now. Where’s the whiskey?
Expand
Reply Retweet Favorite
I admit, I usually pay very little attention to who is reffing the game, but supposedly Bill Kennedy and Doc Rivers have some personal beef.
The Hawks can use any edge they can get.
Jabroni Joe
May 10th, 2012
5:24 pm
Instead of saying who’s better between Al & Josh, why not just root for them to win, both are big pieces for this team as of TODAY!! Lets worry about getting this victory TONIGHT instead of hating on either, DAMN People!
Jay Dubu
May 10th, 2012
5:27 pm
The Hawks wanted home court advantage in round 1, earned it, and lost it to the Celtics in game 2. They have to take it back tonight, and move on to what will be a thrilling game 7 in the Highlight Factory!!!
Let’s Go Hawks!!!!
ctrim
May 10th, 2012
5:31 pm
Heard Jonathon Vilma put a bounty on Pierce and Rondo. Go Hawks
Jay Dubu
May 10th, 2012
5:33 pm
JJ has played some really good defense on Pierce. Hope that Josh is able to elevate a little better tonight than he was on Tuesday.
With he and Al, it gives the Hawks a game around the rim.
ctrim
May 10th, 2012
5:36 pm
Would like to see Pierce make a “Josh” face tonight after things don’t go well. Go Hawks
Slimjr
May 10th, 2012
5:38 pm
I will SteveW if All helps get it done..
When was the last time the Hawks won up in Boston? Sometime last century?
ctrim
May 10th, 2012
5:39 pm
Horford “Tebos” after a win at the Gardnen tonight. Go Hawks
Heisenberg
May 10th, 2012
5:43 pm
I will believe Paul Pierce is hurt when he is sitting next to Doc in a suit. He does this all the time. Acting like he got hurt so he can make a dramatic return. Does anybody remember him be rolled off the court in a wheel chair only to come bouncing out of the locker room a short time later? Pierce is a punk. He cannot get his shot off with out pushing off and he cannot drive without hooking the defender. I wish someone would foul him the way Blake Griffin gets fouled. That being said I still hate LeBron more.
Slimjr
May 10th, 2012
5:45 pm
Hey SteveW, how about this:
Old school, Magic to Worthy for the dunk
New school, Teague to Horford for the dunk
These two could become a dynamic duo? Yes way!
Larry unleash the new secret weapon on National TV Sir!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
5:50 pm
KevinM
Those trends are interesting however, they don’t account for injuries. Still, they are intriguing.
O'brien
May 10th, 2012
5:52 pm
KevinM,
I think Marvin will be under. But I think Hawks win tonight. Willie Green or Pargo will make some big shots (imo).
As for Gearon’s comments, am I the only one who thinks the main reason he spoke up and said what he did, is because even if the Hawks lose tonight, Gearon will bring Rick, LD, and all the players back.
By speaking out, he will have laid the foundation for all the justification for losing the series, and bringing everybody back.
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
5:54 pm
Teague has never really had a good sample of playing with a legit Big Man like Horford to pass to in the paint. Only last years run versus The Bulls, and 12 games to start the season. I guess that is okay but, they have to get re-acquainted now and, again it is the post season.
If those two get in rhythm, we look real dangerous tonight.
Slimjr
May 10th, 2012
5:58 pm
Sorry, my previous post was meant for KevinM! Multitasking with more than one computer..Yikes…
The Jones
May 10th, 2012
5:59 pm
Where is MC?
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
6:04 pm
“By speaking out, he will have laid the foundation for all the justification for losing the series, and bringing everybody back.”
______
Yeah Obie, but if Gearon, Jr is doing this, then I don’t see how that rationale will change the two facts:
KG will still be a dirty player.
The refs will still swallow the whistle.
Neither of these facts make one scintilla of a difference re: there are fundamental and timely changes that must be made to this organization to press forward. e.g. We could really use a more disciplined and structured coach, better role players (Marvin included), a back up SG and PG.
Looks like we are set at Center now, with Horford and Zaza. We just need rotational players behind the PG,SG,SF. Ivan can back up any PF in this league, a third Center would be wise. We are almost there man.
DawgNole
May 10th, 2012
6:05 pm
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
4:58 pm
MC
Are you setting up interviews for a new gig. If so, can you ask some Larry King type questions next time you get in front of Sund & ‘Nem?
______________________
Too bad you won’t get a reply–again.
DawgNole
May 10th, 2012
6:06 pm
ctrim
May 10th, 2012
5:36 pm
Would like to see Pierce make a “Josh” face tonight after things don’t go well. Go Hawks
___________________
He did exactly that when he almost airballed that jumper late in the game Tuesday night.
Astro Joe
May 10th, 2012
6:31 pm
If I owned the Hawks and just watched the team win the equivalent of 50 games while missing my All-Star center, Iw ouldn;t hesitate to return my GM and head coach nor would I feel compelled to have to lay the foundation. Add missing Josh for a playoff game and I surely wouldn’t feel like risking an unfortunate hire was the right move.
brigadierjerry
May 10th, 2012
6:40 pm
last hawks playoff win in boston game 5 the year nique and bird went to seven games i believe
bigdave
May 10th, 2012
6:42 pm
“Sure, there is video of howe to defend the Hawks with a healthy Horford, but there is also video of how to defend the Celtics. Heck, SVG had video of how to defend the Pacers. Studying is good and it obviously helps the coaching staff develop a game plan… but execution is more important. Celtics are almost as depleted as the hawks at hte big position. The addition of Al should also mean that we should NOT lose the rebounding battle against a poor rebounding team.”
indeed… and most importantly if they’re going to play tight on Al, that means everyone is man up. hence, KG out of center field. hopefully Josh can show the ability to take him off the dribble as demonstrated in game 1..
wow.. i always thought that ref had a lil sugar in his tank. may be a wash though, cause he isnt too fair to Hawks either, but who really is.
http://www.redsarmy.com/home/2010/05/donaghy-claim-bill-kennedys-sexuality-at-root-of-hatred-for-doc.html
Sautee
May 10th, 2012
6:45 pm
“As for Gearon’s comments, am I the only one who thinks the main reason he spoke up and said what he did, is because even if the Hawks lose tonight, Gearon will bring Rick, LD, and all the players back.”
No, you are not the only one. Everything is spin with Mikey.
Walt Frazier
May 10th, 2012
6:48 pm
A team victory will happen on the road, if the Hawks move the ball without turning it over. That’s the key. Ball control and that’s starts with Teague will make the difference. Teague is the only Hawks player that has the speed and quickness the overcome the Celtics defensive presence. Here’s my lineup: Teague, Hinrich, Josh, Al, and Ivan. Let Marvin come off the bench. Get Hinrich off early with the 3’s; he’s shooting 3’s at a high percentage as of late.
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
6:48 pm
Astro Joe
“If I owned the Hawks and just watched the team win the equivalent of 50 games while missing my All-Star center, Iw ouldn;t hesitate to return my GM and head coach nor would I feel compelled to have to lay the foundation. Add missing Josh for a playoff game and I surely wouldn’t feel like risking an unfortunate hire was the right move.”
_________
So, you recommend standing pat? You don’t want to reach for higher ground? If your was new Caddy was 7-8 years old, you wouldn’t trade up for the 2013 model, even if the older engine needs new parts? Hmmm … now that’s old skool. (smiles)
Najeh Davenpoop
May 10th, 2012
6:48 pm
“If I owned the Hawks and just watched the team win the equivalent of 50 games while missing my All-Star center, Iw ouldn;t hesitate to return my GM and head coach nor would I feel compelled to have to lay the foundation. ”
If I owned the Hawks and just watched the team win the equivalent of 50 games anchored by my power forward whose contract is expiring next year, I would try to re-sign that power forward and upgrade the talent around him instead of trading him for 50 cents on the dollar.
Sautee
May 10th, 2012
6:50 pm
LOL @ Walt Frazier forgetting that JJ is on the team, LOL. Or maybe he didn’t.
drmaryb.(*_*).
May 10th, 2012
6:55 pm
bigdave
Great job on digging up some dirt, I love the behind the scenes stuff. Is Billy Kennedey officiating this game tonight? I sure hope so. We Hawks need a biased whistle for once in our lives, we’ll take whatever edge we can get. (smiles)
Walt Frazier
May 10th, 2012
6:55 pm
Sautee
May 10th, 2012
6:50 pm
LOL @ Walt Frazier forgetting that JJ is on the team, LOL. Or maybe he didn’t.
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Oops, I did!