Atlanta Hawks: If not Josh Smith, then who?
Josh Smith says he’s a game-time decision tonight for Game 3. If Smith can’t go, which lineup should Larry Drew use in an attempt to somehow win without him?
My (meaningless vote) is for sending out Marvin Williams alongside Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson and Jason Collins. (Ivan Johnson has done all that can be expected in this series but the second unit needs his zip, toughness, post defense and rebounding.)
From a matchup perspective, I like this lineup because Marvin can defend Paul Pierce instead of Joe. This would theoretically allow Joe to play more overall minutes (more on that later) and have more energy left at the end because Brandon Bass is a much easier defensive assignment. Bass’ game generally is limited to making mid-range and long 2s . Joe would have to keep Bass off the boards but Bass is a fellow blah rebounder.
I also like Marvin with the starters because, according to basketballvalue.com, the only positive plus-minus lineups that have included Marvin in this series are those that also included Joe, Josh and Hinrich. It seems the aggressive, confident, scoring Bench Marvin from the regular season has disappeared so maybe it’s best he run with the starters and focus on defending and rebounding.
Larry Drew hasn’t given any indication which lineup he favors without Josh. If the alignment at the end of practice Thursday is to be believed–and maybe it should be after I wrongly figured the Collins lineup at practice before Game 1 was a smokescreen–Tracy McGrady would replace Josh in the lineup.
It’s not the worst idea. The sample size obviously is miniscule but you can see McGrady’s best on-court, off-court numbers were produced during the 8 1/2 minutes and 14 offensive possessions he was on the floor with Joe, Josh and Twin. And it’s reasonable to believe that’s not a fluke because McGrady generally had positive plus-minus numbers during the regular season when he played in lineups that featured Josh, Joe, either or both.
But if McGrady starts he can’t defend Pierce like Marvin can, and thus the Hawks lose the benefit of moving Joe away from chasing Pierce.
One of my tweeps offered another lineup: Teague, Joe Johnson, McGrady, Williams and Collins. The reasoning: “[J]oe could could exploit [Avery] Bradley in the post.”
I follow the logic but can see a few potential issues. One is that Rivers could counter by simply replacing Bradley with Mickael Pietrus, who has the size and defensive talent to defend Joe. That was a a good offensive alignment but a poor defensive lineup for the Celtics over 30 offensive possessions during the regular season but it came against some good offensive players.
Another potential negative for the Teague-Johnson-McGrady-Williams-Collins lineup is it sends Hinrich to the bench after he’s produced (by the standards of this series) and played well alongside the starters. It also leaves a probable second unit of Hinrich, Jannero Pargo, Willie Green, Vladimir Radmaonvic and Ivan Johnson. That’s a smallish unit with one solid rebounder, one decent rebounder, and no true set-up guy.
No matter which starting lineup Drew uses, he’s not going to have many good options on his bench unless someone, anyone from that unit scores points. Drew might be able to mitigate the offensive struggles of his reserves by staggering the rest periods for his starters. This is essential, as Bret LaGree notes at Hoopinion:
Smith, Johnson, and Teague have joined Drew on the sideline for 17 possessions of this series during which the Hawks have been outscored 19-7.
The makeshift starting lineup? +20 over 71 offensive and 68 defensive possessions.
Swap in Marvin Williams for Jason Collins? The Hawks are still +1 over 12 offensive and 15 defensive possessions.
Remove all your above average players from the floor at once? Disaster, not so surprisingly, strikes.
LeGree adds that Rivers never had both Pierce and Garnett off the floor at the same time during Games 1 and 2. It goes deeper than that: Before Rajon Rondo’s ejection from Game 1 and subsequent suspension, Rivers always had at least two of his three best players on the floor at the same time. Presumably Rivers will continue with that plan now that Rondo is back in the fold for Game 3.
My tweeps and blog people quickly pounced on Drew’s comments that he’s saving his starters “for a long series.” The reaction is understandable. The statement suggests Drew is unaware that playing his best players more minutes could shorten the series in his team’s favor, and that losing games because he’s saving them would shorten the series (and thus the season) to the detriment of the Hawks.
If Josh doesn’t play, Drew won’t have the luxury of having even two players as good as Rondo, Pierce and Garnett. Most likely that’s too much for any coach to overcome. But Drew could give the Hawks their best chance by always having one of Teague and Johnson on the floor at any time and riding those two for as many minutes as possible for as long as the game is still competitive.
That could end up being more important than who starts if Josh can’t go.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
167 comments Add your comment
ThatBengaliGuy
May 4th, 2012
4:15 pm
I am no Marvin fan but I have a feeling Marvin is going to have a good game today.
Adams
May 4th, 2012
4:16 pm
Any chance Horford will get into this series?
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
4:19 pm
“I am no Marvin fan but I have a feeling Marvin is going to have a good game today.”
What’s your definition of a good game?
Playoff Talk, Atlanta Sports and Mailbag: Georgia Kickers « Mostly College Football Blog
May 4th, 2012
4:25 pm
[...] Celtics, lost Tuesday night. The Hawks play at Boston tonight with the series tied 1-1, with Josh Smith a game-time decision. There’s Atlanta sports for [...]
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
4:25 pm
Only way the Hawks win tonight is if Ray Allen doesn’t play and either Marvin or Ivan have the game of their life. That means one of them going for something like 25 and 10.
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
4:27 pm
C Jason Collins 2012 Playoffs Statistics
PPG 4.0 RPG 4.00 APG 0.0 EFF + 5.50
F Marvin Williams 2012 Playoffs Statistics
PPG 2.5 RPG 3.50 APG 0.0 EFF + 1.50
G Kirk Hinrich 2011-12 Statistics
PPG 6.5 RPG 2.10 APG 2.8 EFF + 7.27
These ‘nimbers’ aren’t going to get it done.
LD’s playoff record so far: .500 7-7
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
4:28 pm
I am still waiting for the day Larry Drew calls out Marvin Williams for severely underachieving. How can a guy making over 7 million dollars a year and who has only 5 points in 30+ minutes not even get get mentioned by the coach?
I will be here every day waiting for justice to be served, waiting for Marvin to be held accountable for his piss-poor performance, severe underachievement, and blatant incompetence in all facets of the game. This is while others such as northcyde (actually, other – he is the only person in this entire city who actually defends Marvin) consistently defend him and post PER stats which don’t show the whole story. Still waiting on you to post Marvin’s PER for games 1 and 2.
vava74
May 4th, 2012
4:28 pm
Marvin has been absolute crap on both ends of the floor and he has not stopped ONCE Pierce in the times they were matched up.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
4:29 pm
From a few blogs ago:
ROTFLMAOLOL @ Northcyde calling me a “Fan” of his when this dude spent half an hour the other day typing up an 8 Mile rap featuring thoughts I allegedly was running through my head. Get real, dude.
“Dear JeJe, I wrote you but you still ain’t calling. I left my cell, my pager and my home phone at the bottom. I sent 2 letters back in Autumn, you must not’ve got’em”
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
4:30 pm
MARVIN HAS 5 POINTS IN THIS SERIES. He is the worst player on this team and one of the worst in this league – I am glad Rod, myself, and High-sider (I believe) are the 3 most adamant Marvin realists here. This guy has not made a single jumpshot in the series. Look at his game log – it is a JOKE. 5 POINTS WHEN YOU ARE MAKING 7-8 MILL A YEAR GOING AGAINST BENCH PLAYERS ON THE OTHER TEAM. AND YOU ALSO INJURED OUR STARTING CENTER. SMH
Mr Mojo
May 4th, 2012
4:47 pm
Report from Yahoo saying Smith is out tonight. Wanna hear it form the Hawks hoping its not true.
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/nba–hawks–josh-smith-to-miss-game-3.html;_ylt=AmjQwOKG5mM1aYP_HpB5omrqbwM6
Beantown
May 4th, 2012
4:49 pm
“Only way the Hawks win tonight is if Ray Allen doesn’t play and either Marvin or Ivan have the game of their life. That means one of them going for something like 25 and 10.”
Ivan couldn’t go off for 25/10 in my Work League, honestly.
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
4:50 pm
“I am still waiting for the day Larry Drew calls out Marvin Williams for severely underachieving. How can a guy making over 7 million dollars a year and who has only 5 points in 30+ minutes not even get get mentioned by the coach?”
It’s been almost 7 years, and no GM or coach for the Hawks has ever called his sorry a@@ out. I have never once heard an Atlanta coach call Joe, Marvin or Horford out. They have bashed Josh, Teague, Tmac, Jamal, Ivan, Zaza, but never once these players. the most I have heard is that well he know what Joe can do, he just had a bad game. These three guys are the three that are least likely to step up in a big playoff game, but they never get called out. I don’t understand it.
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
4:54 pm
Josh is a warrior. The guy never misses game. I can honestly say I only remember a handful of games he has missed since he became a Hawk. That being said, if the diagnoses is correct, no way you play him tonight. You only hope he can go on Sunday. If he does, his explosion will be limited, and he will teansform into Josh Bird (all jumpshots). We are in trouble.
Section 212
May 4th, 2012
4:54 pm
Take the game out of LD’s hands. LD does not have a playoff coaching mentality. Most coaches shorten their bench and play their starters more minutes and almost never have all the best players on the bench. Rivers saw an opportunity and went for it by keeping Garnett and Pierce on the floor against our second unit. That is what you call COACHING aDJUSTMENTS!!!! Longs series…resting players when the playoff schedule has rest built in. LD get your head out of the sand.
Section 212
May 4th, 2012
4:56 pm
Smoove is a warrior but he probably needs to sit this game out, or keep his minutes to <20 for situational plays…oh yeah, LD does not have any situational plays
Section 212
May 4th, 2012
4:59 pm
Our offense should be: JT drive to the hole, shoot or kick out, ISO Joe with shots early in the clock, nothing under 5 seconds.
Section 212
May 4th, 2012
5:00 pm
Marvin lads the league in missed wide open shots!!!!!!
High-sider
May 4th, 2012
5:00 pm
Grandmaster JeJe (GM) and Rod from College Park,
Co-sign on all your posts regarding Marvin Williams’ week performances.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM), thanks for the shoutout in your earlier post.
High-sider
May 4th, 2012
5:01 pm
^should be “…weak performances”^
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
5:12 pm
http://www.790thezone.com/instantreplay/Episodes.aspx?PID=2446
Interview with Bob Rathmun done that bought up some good points. He states that since the 1st quarter of game 1, the Hawks have shot 35% from the field. He also states that in the second game, once we went up by 11, from that point on we shot 4-19 from the field, and were outscored 33 to 15. But, there are two idiots who continue to post 3 page post talking about how we need to defend better (LOL). HELLO. WE CAN”T SCORE.
Another point he made is that once a Boston player shoots, 4 guys run back on defense to prevent any fast breaks. He states that they don’t even care about offensive rebounds. Interesting point, I will watch for that tonight.
bigdave
May 4th, 2012
5:16 pm
If josh can’t go tonight u can bet they hit the offensive glass…
NUNNA!
May 4th, 2012
5:17 pm
Yall gonna see.. If Marvin is turned loose and starts,he will be on fire and he will show yall what he can do when given the role as an offensive option,1st or even 2nd..
But,LD is so out of touch that he is gonna sub Marvin for a long time and Marvin will come back in being the 4th or 5th option behind twin..
Hey Marvin!!
DO YO THANG!!! LOL..DO IT MARVIN!!
Mac-Town (478)™
May 4th, 2012
5:20 pm
no excuse for T-Mac not to get major burn tonight.
NUNNA!
May 4th, 2012
5:21 pm
Beantown
“Only way the Hawks win tonight is if Ray Allen doesn’t play and either Marvin or Ivan have the game of their life. That means one of them going for something like 25 and 10.”
—————————————————————————
Ivan may have a game close to that but if either one does it,it will be Marvin!!
Im gonna make a prediction right now..
If Marvin starts and is either the 1st or 2nd option on offense,he will score at least 10 or more points before he is replaced in the 1st qtr…
I SAID IT!! AND IT WILL BE DONE!!
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:22 pm
Co-sign Rod.
My only major knock on Josh is the jumpshots. I swear, if he cut back on those and turned those into post-ups, he’d be damn close to leading the league in FG%. That, his passes, and his dislike of passing the ball to Teague.
He is by far our best player right now.
ntrigue
May 4th, 2012
5:23 pm
Marvin can’t check Paul pierce Joe just has to suck it up!
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:24 pm
Marvin really is The Invisible Man (what the Magic announcers call him).
Can someone in this pathetic front office please tell this guy to wake up?
To not “be upset” and to say that the other team “did what they had to do” are the two most frustrating things a fan can hear after a loss
yodaddybrother
May 4th, 2012
5:24 pm
Teague, joe, Tracy, Marvin and Collins works
As long as Stupid Drew doesn’t sub out the starters at the same time and strategically staggers the lineup.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:25 pm
Najeh,
Any chance Ray returns and is rusty/misses shots/defense sucks so Joe can expose him? That is, if Joe wants to…
My interpretation of Stackhouse’s comments is he has us going to the Finals, but looking at the rest of the teams in the Playoffs, the team playing the best is Miami. He of course wants to go to the Finals and is “planning” on it, but Miami is playing better than us. So what? The dude has begged to be on this team for 2-3 years. He loves the city, loves our team. Nothing to be mad about. I think we all know here that Miami [probably] will be going to the Finals
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:27 pm
I hope those Rondo remarks were forwarded to the team. I know Rondo and Josh are tight, but I could see Josh having a huge game after hearing that. We need everyone to step up tonight. Would be nice to have a lead at halftime. If we are down 46-39 at halftime and Boston starts the 2nd half with a 6-0 run, it will be a looooooooooooong half. Just look at NYK from last night. I think we all knew what was coming to them LOL.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:28 pm
Such a nice blog above but not even one mention about the T-Mac situation…C’mon MC
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
5:43 pm
I think a big reason Rondo made those comments is because he knows we are a nice quiet team and we are less likely than any teams [with actual leadership] to strike back
yodaddybrother
May 4th, 2012
5:46 pm
I just saw Rondo say they already won the series! Lol…in response the Hawks will bow down guaranteed
TMACfan
May 4th, 2012
5:46 pm
Ray Allen is back….
yodaddybrother
May 4th, 2012
5:47 pm
Joe Johnson….the hero that we don’t want and the one that we don’t need
yodaddybrother
May 4th, 2012
5:48 pm
“Ray Allen is back…”
Hopefully he messes up chemistry…..most likely not though
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
5:59 pm
“I think a big reason Rondo made those comments is because he knows we are a nice quiet team and we are less likely than any teams [with actual leadership] to strike back”
Agreed. Who would he be scared of Marvin Williams? LOL Joe Johnson?
SteveW
May 4th, 2012
6:02 pm
Even Charlotte won 7 games this season. Point?
Sometimes you play a game and everything is falling, and nothing is falling for the other team. Maybe the Hawks have one of those games in their favor tonite.
I saw a pretty mediocre Indy team hit like 19 shots in a row in the 3rd quarter of a game last season, really beat somebody bad, can’t remember who
So you never know – that’s why they play the games
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
6:03 pm
We are wearing red uniforms tonight. Wow haven’t been on the road in ages.
Hopefully we come out firing with the red unis. I think the players enjoy wearing them and play better No Homo
SteveW
May 4th, 2012
6:05 pm
Ray Allen is good, and when he get’s hot, it’s amazing. But he’s not the same Ray Allen of even 2-3 years ago.
I’m more concerned about our guys, Josh, ZaZa, Al and their health, and how the healthy guys play than I am about Ray Allen.
Watch him torch us for 30 tonite.
DD
May 4th, 2012
6:05 pm
Josh Smith will not play tonight vs. Boston (knee). Marvin Williams will replace him in the starting lineup
SteveW
May 4th, 2012
6:09 pm
MC – Thanks for the great article btw
Shamrock
May 4th, 2012
6:10 pm
Rondo goes for a triple double tonight.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
6:12 pm
Wonder if Marvin goes into hiding now that he’s starting. Haven’t seen much from his career to indicate otherwise.
Hawks2012
May 4th, 2012
6:12 pm
this is why we needed to win game 2. i say its time we take a dirty shot at rondo or kg or pierce and try to injure one of their players to even things up. no way we lose this series if josh, al, and zaza were all healthy
Shamrock
May 4th, 2012
6:13 pm
Marvin Williams goes out for a double cheeseburger tonight after the game.
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
6:19 pm
You contain Rondo, you contain the C’s.
That was the mantra heading into the series.
Its Joe and Jeff, but our interior has to overachieve.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
May 4th, 2012
6:30 pm
“Marvin Williams goes out for a double cheeseburger tonight after the game.”
Erick Dampier goes out for a triple cheeseburger tonight before the game.
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
6:36 pm
Ray Allen is active. Josh Smith is not.