Atlanta Hawks: If not Josh Smith, then who?
Josh Smith says he’s a game-time decision tonight for Game 3. If Smith can’t go, which lineup should Larry Drew use in an attempt to somehow win without him?
My (meaningless vote) is for sending out Marvin Williams alongside Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, Joe Johnson and Jason Collins. (Ivan Johnson has done all that can be expected in this series but the second unit needs his zip, toughness, post defense and rebounding.)
From a matchup perspective, I like this lineup because Marvin can defend Paul Pierce instead of Joe. This would theoretically allow Joe to play more overall minutes (more on that later) and have more energy left at the end because Brandon Bass is a much easier defensive assignment. Bass’ game generally is limited to making mid-range and long 2s . Joe would have to keep Bass off the boards but Bass is a fellow blah rebounder.
I also like Marvin with the starters because, according to basketballvalue.com, the only positive plus-minus lineups that have included Marvin in this series are those that also included Joe, Josh and Hinrich. It seems the aggressive, confident, scoring Bench Marvin from the regular season has disappeared so maybe it’s best he run with the starters and focus on defending and rebounding.
Larry Drew hasn’t given any indication which lineup he favors without Josh. If the alignment at the end of practice Thursday is to be believed–and maybe it should be after I wrongly figured the Collins lineup at practice before Game 1 was a smokescreen–Tracy McGrady would replace Josh in the lineup.
It’s not the worst idea. The sample size obviously is miniscule but you can see McGrady’s best on-court, off-court numbers were produced during the 8 1/2 minutes and 14 offensive possessions he was on the floor with Joe, Josh and Twin. And it’s reasonable to believe that’s not a fluke because McGrady generally had positive plus-minus numbers during the regular season when he played in lineups that featured Josh, Joe, either or both.
But if McGrady starts he can’t defend Pierce like Marvin can, and thus the Hawks lose the benefit of moving Joe away from chasing Pierce.
One of my tweeps offered another lineup: Teague, Joe Johnson, McGrady, Williams and Collins. The reasoning: “[J]oe could could exploit [Avery] Bradley in the post.”
I follow the logic but can see a few potential issues. One is that Rivers could counter by simply replacing Bradley with Mickael Pietrus, who has the size and defensive talent to defend Joe. That was a a good offensive alignment but a poor defensive lineup for the Celtics over 30 offensive possessions during the regular season but it came against some good offensive players.
Another potential negative for the Teague-Johnson-McGrady-Williams-Collins lineup is it sends Hinrich to the bench after he’s produced (by the standards of this series) and played well alongside the starters. It also leaves a probable second unit of Hinrich, Jannero Pargo, Willie Green, Vladimir Radmaonvic and Ivan Johnson. That’s a smallish unit with one solid rebounder, one decent rebounder, and no true set-up guy.
No matter which starting lineup Drew uses, he’s not going to have many good options on his bench unless someone, anyone from that unit scores points. Drew might be able to mitigate the offensive struggles of his reserves by staggering the rest periods for his starters. This is essential, as Bret LaGree notes at Hoopinion:
Smith, Johnson, and Teague have joined Drew on the sideline for 17 possessions of this series during which the Hawks have been outscored 19-7.
The makeshift starting lineup? +20 over 71 offensive and 68 defensive possessions.
Swap in Marvin Williams for Jason Collins? The Hawks are still +1 over 12 offensive and 15 defensive possessions.
Remove all your above average players from the floor at once? Disaster, not so surprisingly, strikes.
LeGree adds that Rivers never had both Pierce and Garnett off the floor at the same time during Games 1 and 2. It goes deeper than that: Before Rajon Rondo’s ejection from Game 1 and subsequent suspension, Rivers always had at least two of his three best players on the floor at the same time. Presumably Rivers will continue with that plan now that Rondo is back in the fold for Game 3.
My tweeps and blog people quickly pounced on Drew’s comments that he’s saving his starters “for a long series.” The reaction is understandable. The statement suggests Drew is unaware that playing his best players more minutes could shorten the series in his team’s favor, and that losing games because he’s saving them would shorten the series (and thus the season) to the detriment of the Hawks.
If Josh doesn’t play, Drew won’t have the luxury of having even two players as good as Rondo, Pierce and Garnett. Most likely that’s too much for any coach to overcome. But Drew could give the Hawks their best chance by always having one of Teague and Johnson on the floor at any time and riding those two for as many minutes as possible for as long as the game is still competitive.
That could end up being more important than who starts if Josh can’t go.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
167 comments Add your comment
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
1:56 pm
Jeff Teague finishes 10th in MIP voting. They really need to fix the way this is decided. Ryan Anderson winning that award is a joke, as that article says.
zgoldatl
May 4th, 2012
1:57 pm
I’m with Vava
northcyde
May 4th, 2012
2:10 pm
LOL @ Anderson being the MIP, when Bynum has essentially elevated his status to the best center in the league ( or at least equal to Dwight ). Bynum will be 2nd team All-NBA this season, but Ryan Anderson is most improved?
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
2:12 pm
Ersan Ilyasova plays the same position as Anderson, has roughly the same skill set as Anderson, and improved his game more than Anderson despite not having Dwight getting him wide open looks. And I don’t even think Ilyasova should be the MIP. It should be Bynum or Harden.
northcyde
May 4th, 2012
2:18 pm
And Marvin pretty much has to play folks. He’s had two horrible games, but he’s still a better option in the lineup than Vlad. Without Josh in the lineup, we’re going to need all the rebounding help we can get. Instead of trying to get instant offense from guys like Willie Green, Drew simply needs to play T-Mac more, alongside JJ and Teague . . and Marvin.
I still prefer Ivan to get the start tonight, but “Scary Drew” is probably of the mindset that he needs to protect Ivan from getting in foul trouble. I’m sure Drew will probably play 10 – 11 players tonight, regardless of how the game is going. Hopefully the guys will play up to their abilities.
MJ49
May 4th, 2012
2:24 pm
So it was obvious to everyone that Marvin played scared last game, I dont understand how after all the battles the Hawks have been through he plays scared, I also dont understand why Joe continues to not get any rebounds, everyone on the floor gets more rebounds than Joe except for Jason Collins, so now the Hawks may only have one Captain playing, the one thats struggled thus far, the one that doesnt catch alley oops, everyone on the team has caught an oop except for Joe and Hinrich and Collins, I theres nothing wrong with resting your players, but when the other team cuts your lead down to 2, you have to abbort that strategy, you dont want our players well rested for an early vacation. Does management think we need a Center now? Will Joe score above or below 30? Will Teague have a double double? Will Joe have at least 7 rebs? Will Marvin score above or below 20? Will Marvin get more than 10 rebs? Will TMac score above or below 20? Will The Hawks step up and earn respect or will Sund & Drew get fired, & due to injuries give this team 1 more go at full strength just with a better coach, gm, and reserve big men? Is this Marvins last chance to step up?
Beantown
May 4th, 2012
2:25 pm
Without J Smith, there’s zero chance of an ATL victory tonight, rest him up. C’s by 20-25, will be over by the third. Good luck with Dampier/Collins/Ivan frontcourt.
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:30 pm
F what them haters think!!!!!!
BIG IVAN WILL COME UP BIG FOR THE HAWKS TONIGHT
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:31 pm
I don’t see why there is a debate here.
Big Ivan has done more than Marvin in one year.
MJ49
May 4th, 2012
2:33 pm
If bos has its on espn, like espnboston or whatever, why would someone supporting bos be on the Hawks blog, I know for a fact if they had an EspnAtl I would never vistit Bostons, The Saints, The Giants, The Packers, The Lynx, The Heat, The Yankees, The Bucs, The Panthers, or The Phillies blog, not never Rhetorical ques
FIRE LARRY DREW IMMEDIATELY!
May 4th, 2012
2:37 pm
Its laughable that a person like cunningham who is around the hawks everyday made the statement that Tmac can’t guard Pierce like Marvin can????!!! what game was he watching Pierce scored on Marvin everytime he touched the ball in game 2… Larry drew looking for more scoring??? Well how bout play the only other perimeter player besides Teague and Joe who can create his own shot…(Tmac)… If Larry Drew blows this series for the Hawks then he should be fired pronto.. Why was pierce allowed to even play one on one on a team missing the likes of Ray Allen and Rondo… This is the worst coaching job I have ever seen.. But hey thats what you get when you only pay a coach a million bucks..
northcyde
May 4th, 2012
2:40 pm
I guess people don’t want to get their hopes up without Josh, so they’re going the reverse route, and predicting the worst.
I still don’t see how people are not seeing that this is NOT a great Celtics team. Even at full strength, that team was struggling to beat us. I personally don’t see a blowout at all tonight. As much of the things Josh brings to the table, he does other things throughout the course of the game that we may not see tonight
- 22 foot jumpers by the PF
- not passing the ball to Teague after a defensive rebound
- slightly better “on the ball” defense
So their are Pros and Cons to Josh being out. More Cons than Pros, but if we can turn some of those Pros to him being out into major positives, that will go a long way in keeping this game competitive.
It’s just like when JJ was out during the season. It’s not like this team just rolled over and died. And I don’t expect them to do it tonight.
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:41 pm
LOOKS LIKE WOODY AND LD WILL BE LOOKING FOR A NEW JOB NEXT YEAR
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:44 pm
MY LINEUP
TEAGUE
HINRICH
JOE
TMAC
BIG IVAN
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:45 pm
ONLY THING I LIKE ABOUT MARVIN IS HE GET TO THE FOUL LINE. WHEN HE DRIVES TO THE BASKET HE JUST TRIPS ON HIS OWN FEET AND THE REFS CALL A FOUL.
BIG IVAN FOR PRESIDENT
O'brien
May 4th, 2012
2:50 pm
If the ASG have no plans of amnestying JJ, shouldnt they Hawks beat the celtics with rondo. And now we are only leading by 2 in the 4th with no rondo. Like I said, hawks are very inconsistent Hawks beat the celtics with rondo. And now we are only leading by 2 in the 4th with no rondo. Like I said, hawks are very inconsistent amnesty Marvin? Marvin’s $7.5 mil salary can be used to bring in 2 solid bench players (IMO).
Irregardless (LD’s favorite word) of what his per 36 minutes statistics say, Marvin shrinks in crunch time. We could have had pietrus, Damien, plenty other wings who would do what Marvin does (except for rebounding maybe), at a much lower price.
Greg Carter
May 4th, 2012
2:59 pm
Guys stop it! The Hawks will not win this series. I’m sorry. Listen it might go to 6 games, but we (the C’s) have homecourt. Sorry but who’s your closer again? Like I said, Rondo is the best PG in the league and we have the best defense in the league. You all better be glad you got lucky in game one. The officiating was ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE ergo the reason you won that game. Thanks for giving Rondo the motivation he needs to rip you guys.
Buddy Grizzard
May 4th, 2012
3:02 pm
T-Mac’s last chance to see round 2?
deebo
May 4th, 2012
3:04 pm
i hope the hawks win, but man do they look like a high school team at times.
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
3:06 pm
” slightly better “on the ball” defense”
Seriously? You think the on the ball defense will be better without Josh? Something about Twin or Marvin tells you they can contest KG’s shots better than Josh has this series? Come on, man.
samson
May 4th, 2012
3:07 pm
NEWS FLASH: With the exception of Josh Smith, Jeff Teague, and Al Horford, the Hawks suck. We need to blow it up and build around those three guys…
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
3:08 pm
And a lot of those 22 foot jumpers, at least in catch and shoot situations, have gone in. I’d rather have Josh shoot catch and shoot jumpers than Joe go one on five in crunch time. Straight up.
Beantown
May 4th, 2012
3:11 pm
Josh Smith is your best, and really only player (exception possibly Teague). With Smith, you lost game 2, at home (great homecourt btw, ATL really brought it!). Without him, on the road, with the C’s playing with there full squad, you’ll be lucky to score 75 tonite……….94-72…….Book it.
Shamrock
May 4th, 2012
3:19 pm
Be nice Beantown, picking on Hawks fans is like teasing the kids on the special short bus, they are trying to do the best they can with what they have.
Big Lou
May 4th, 2012
3:20 pm
“Based on the first two games of this series I totally disagree. Marvin has been roasted by Pierce while he has guarded him. T-Mac can’t be much worse. He has been more active on D (albeit not on Pierce) than Marvin has in this series.”
That’s inaccurate, Najeh. Most of the time that Pierce is out there, Joe is guarding him. Joe guarded him when he shot that dagger three in the fourth quarter in game two, or when he was too slow to get through the screen. Marvin always does a good job on Pierce. I know that Marvin sucks on offense, but don’t let the bias cloud your judgement.
Big Lou
May 4th, 2012
3:23 pm
“It’s just like when JJ was out during the season. It’s not like this team just rolled over and died. And I don’t expect them to do it tonight.”
Josh is the heart and soul of this team. Without him in there, I expect the Celtics to win by at least 10. Actually, I wagered that they would lose by at least that much.
Buddy Grizzard
May 4th, 2012
3:27 pm
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
2:41 pm
LOOKS LIKE WOODY AND LD WILL BE LOOKING FOR A NEW JOB NEXT YEAR
LinkReport this comment
What makes you think that? I heard Sund has already been offered an extension and LD is safe too. He’s the cheapest option and they aren’t going to just start over in Josh’s final year.
bigdave
May 4th, 2012
3:30 pm
U can go back to the game 1 win. Boston made their first cut into the lead when marivn defensed paul. This was mid 2nd qrt. Marvin simply couldn’t stay in front. Nearly fell one time, but that shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
3:32 pm
Celts win easy without Josh, unless TMac or Ivan have big games. No way the refs let Ivan have a big game in Boston. He will be in foul trouble early because Boston’s coach is smart, and he will attack that matchup. TMac is our only hope.
Marvin has no chance guarding Pierce. Matter of fact anytime the Celts see that matchup they isolate Marvin an attack him, and Pierce has scored almost every time. Marvin has been totally useless on both sides of the floor.
tyger
May 4th, 2012
3:35 pm
Plus-Minus don’t mean diddly…scared money dont win!
Drew has to play the guys who are playing well…
This fixation on JJ/Smoove/Marvin is our achilles heel…
Why play them more min. when they’re walking up floor?…
Just not good basketball…You cant win walking up floor…
Our guys are fatigued…You cant get around that…
You have to adjust…Cant just say tough it out…they’re tired…
JJ even said it – he’s ridden them like mules all season…
It catches up with them every 3Q…just a fact…
Fortunately, we have the formula, we did it all year…
But pressure busts pipes…now, with the world watching…
LD playing scared…all season, he mixed-matched, went deep…
Into the bench and found gems…Vladi, Tmac, Pargo, Green…
Everybody contributed to the success we had this season…
Now, he’s scared outta his game, resorting to the Woody-zone…
Play 8 guys, rely on Iso-Joe, play not to lose…
And how can you say we’re any smaller without Josh?…
You have 6′9 TMac, 6′11 Vladi, 7′0 Dampier sitting…
All you have to do is use them, they have 30 yrs combined exp…
If we dont use our assets and lose this series…
Heads should roll…we have former All-stars sitting….
Granted they’re 35 yrs. old, but they can give 5-10 min…
And who’s played KG/PP more than Tmac, Stack?…
Watching JJ walk up the floor and jack 3’s from the timeline…
Is just stupid, get some fresh legs so we can compete…
Buy JJ some time for a dagger in 4Q…
LD lacks confidence in bench – his savior all season…
Scared money dont win!
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
3:36 pm
“That’s inaccurate, Najeh. Most of the time that Pierce is out there, Joe is guarding him. Joe guarded him when he shot that dagger three in the fourth quarter in game two, or when he was too slow to get through the screen. Marvin always does a good job on Pierce. I know that Marvin sucks on offense, but don’t let the bias cloud your judgement.”
It’s actually not inaccurate Big Lou. As the resident Marvin hater, I have watched carefully when Marvin has guarded Pierce, and Pierce has destroyed him almost every time. Obviously by most of the post saying the same thing, you might need to have your eyes checked.
Big Lou
May 4th, 2012
3:40 pm
“As the resident Marvin hater, I have watched carefully when Marvin has guarded Pierce, and Pierce has destroyed him almost every time. Obviously by most of the post saying the same thing, you might need to have your eyes checked.”
I was at both games personally, and all I remember clearly is Joe getting nuked on defense when he was guarding Pierce. I am not saying Marvin will prevent Pierce from making shots, but he’s a better defender than Joe.
“As the resident Marvin hater…”
This is why your comment is pointless.
O'brien
May 4th, 2012
3:40 pm
In one of the games, pierce drove right by Marvin like he wasn’t even there. And what did Marvin do? Commit a silly foul, giving pierce the And One.
And if I’m not mistaken, the dagger 3 from pierce in the last game came in transition. The defender didn’t expect him to pull up and take 3, so I don’t think you can blame the defender for that.
O'brien
May 4th, 2012
3:41 pm
Big Lou,
Joe’s defense was one of the reasons pierce struggled in game 1.
cdog
May 4th, 2012
3:41 pm
the hawks need to go into boston and listen to noone.they need to know they are the better team and win no matter what.they can get 1 or both if they believe and play hard no matter what.
cdog
May 4th, 2012
3:42 pm
they need to clamp intense defensive pressure on the celtics and they will win going away
Melvin
May 4th, 2012
3:43 pm
This would’ve been a no brainer as what to do if Josh couldn’t play, if Marvin could take his guy off the dribble. No way should Bass be able to guard Marvin off the dribble. Bass is a banger who does not have the lateral speed to defend SF but b/c Marvin is so uncoordinated. He will not be able to take advantage…… Ughhg
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
3:47 pm
“I was at both games personally, and all I remember clearly is Joe getting nuked on defense when he was guarding Pierce. I am not saying Marvin will prevent Pierce from making shots, but he’s a better defender than Joe.
“As the resident Marvin hater…”
This is why your comment is pointless.”
Anyone who says Marvin is a better defender than Jose needs their head examined, so there is no need to continue to debate with you. I was at both games also, what does that mean. LOL
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
3:49 pm
Josh is officially out for Game 3 according to Adrian Wojnarowski.
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
3:50 pm
“I was at both games personally, and all I remember clearly is Joe getting nuked on defense when he was guarding Pierce”
As someone pointed out earlier, Joe defended Pierce very well in game 1, when Marvin was put on him is when he got hot, so as I stated earlier, might be time for some new glasses.
Rod from College Park
May 4th, 2012
3:51 pm
“Josh is officially out for Game 3 according to Adrian Wojnarowski.”
Game Over!!!!!!
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
3:51 pm
” Most of the time that Pierce is out there, Joe is guarding him. Joe guarded him when he shot that dagger three in the fourth quarter in game two, or when he was too slow to get through the screen. ”
All this is true, but it doesn’t change the fact that when Marvin did guard Pierce, he got roasted. I never said Joe did a great job (although he was pretty good in Game 1). I just said Marvin has done a terrible job on him in the first two games of this series. Marvin may or may not be a better defender in general (I don’t really agree that he is) but he definitely hasn’t been a better defender on Pierce so far in this series. He has sucked at pretty much everything except rebounding in this series.
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
May 4th, 2012
3:52 pm
Hawks in 6
I got my baddest chick in Rio on it.
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
3:53 pm
Plenty of time to bash LD, but for now, we need to find a rotation that plays well together. LD will go with the normal lineup in this series, anc IMO he should bring in Dampier early to see what he can give us. I was at the Orlando game we won after the AS break and Damp held his own in his first game. We’ve already conceded any offense he or Jason will give us, so 4 on 5 for the most part for the entire night.
Is anyone thinking that Josh will give it a try tonight? That in itself would have me praising him over Al and his rehab. And yes, Al is not going to be banging with anyone when he does come back.
MC just tweeted that it looks doubtful that Josh will go tonight. I at least hope he dresses and maybe he gets the adrenaline going to forget his ’strain’.
Najeh Davenpoop
May 4th, 2012
3:55 pm
I had the Hawks losing this game even if Josh played. I will be surprised if they are able to lose by less than 10 points.
Needless to say, Game 4 is a must win.
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
3:55 pm
“MC: @ajchawks: @TSpears Game-time decision but doubtful” @ 3:53PM
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
3:59 pm
“We’re playing guys out of position and everyone has to help.”
Wasn’t LD the one who wanted versatile guys who played multiple positions? Wasn’t that a strength that we brought to this season?
It’s all about rebounds and FTs tonight.
KevinM
May 4th, 2012
4:02 pm
I backtrack my wishes from a summer or 2 ago: I don’t want any part of Al Jefferson on my team:
“Al Jefferson: “San Antonio knows our plays better than we do.”
Nice comment to make.
cdog
May 4th, 2012
4:12 pm
MARVIN WILLIAMS NEED TO STEP UP HIS GAME TONIGHT. HIS LACK OF PLAYING HARD, SMART AND NO DEFENSE HAS KILLED THE HAWKS.IF HE STEPS IT UP, THE HAWKS WILL WIN GOING AWAY.
Bravesfan79
May 4th, 2012
4:15 pm
The Hawks will have to hit a ton of 3’s tnight to win, but its possible! If not, lets get Josh back for game 4, and win that one and try to make it a 7 game series. Hawks in 7!