Atlanta Hawks: Hawks vs. potential playoff foes
After looking at the numbers back on March 13, I concluded that the best outcome for the Hawks would be to draw Orlando in the first round and avoid Miami in the second. I updated the numbers for the Hawks today to reflect their rematches vs. Chicago and Philadelphia. I also added New York and Boston to the chart since it’s still conceivable the Hawks could face either of those foes in the first round.
Of the teams leading the Hawks in the East standings, the Magic still appear to be the best matchup, followed closely by Indiana. Every other matchup with the top 5 looks to be problematic.
The Sixers, currently seventh in the East but just a game behind Boston in their division, remain a terrible matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks have struggled to defend the Sixers even though they’ve managed to engage them in the low-possession games they prefer. Scoring against Philly hasn’t been easy for the Hawks, either, but at least they finally showed they could do it Saturday.
The one game against Boston showed that the Hawks labor to score against the Celtics like they usually do vs. good defensive teams. Maybe the Hawks figure it out in a series but probably best for them to avoid finding out.
Atlanta has only faced New York once twice, and it’s difficult to discount a team that puts the best player on the floor, but it looks as if work in the Hawks’ favor if they could somehow draw the Knicks. That’s especially true if Baron Davis and Mike Bibby will be absorbing Jeremy Lin’s minutes.
As for Miami and Chicago, that beatdown from the Derrick Rose-less Bulls last threw some water on the idea that Chicago might represent a better second-round matchup for Atlanta than the Heat. The defensive strength the Hawks showed against the Bulls in the first three meetings evaporated as they couldn’t slow Chicago’s space-the-floor, share-the-ball attack without Rose.
Here are Atlanta’s updated numbers against potential playoff opponents. Keep in mind they don’t take into account factors like injuries, schedule, etc.
Hawks (7-12 vs. peer group)
| Opponent | Record vs. | Off. Eff. vs. | Def. Eff. vs. | Avg. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 1-3 | 93.4 | 98.6 | -5 |
| Heat | 1-3 | 97.5 | 102.3 | -4 |
| Magic | 2-0 | 91.5 | 87.8 | +3.5 |
| Celtics | 0-1 | 83.5 | 86.8 | -3 |
| Sixers | 0-3 | 95.8 | 107.2 | -10 |
| Pacers | 2-1 | 100.7 | 99.6 | +1 |
| Knicks | 1-1 | 95.3 | 99.0 | -3.5 |
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180 comments Add your comment
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
2:45 pm
Melvin, I’m guilty of wanting to improve the team, no doubt about it. And when the most tradable asset wants to be traded, I think doing nothing with him is about as bright as trading Steve Smith for JR Ryder.
O'Brien
April 3rd, 2012
2:53 pm
AJ,
Josh has not changed his mind, but I think his mind can be changed. And I think the Hawks will have a harder time getting equal value for Josh, especially since he only has 100 regular season games left before becoming a FA, and demanding a raise, whereas Al is signed for the next 4 years at a reasonable $12 mil per.
Also, I think the team is better with Josh and Zaza at the 4 and 5 compared to Al and Zaza at the 4 and 5 (or Al and Zaza at 5 and whoever we trade Josh for at 4).
I think a lottery pick, a solid reserve big and someone on an expiring deal isn’t bad for Al, especially if we can flip that expiring for another asset.
Now whether or not Rick and the ASG are creative enough to make these kind of moves…that remains to be seen.
Obviously it all hinges on whether or not the ASG believe they can resign Josh though, because if they don’t think they can, then they need to move Josh this offseason (imo).
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
2:54 pm
Some of y’all think of trading a player as a way to get rid of a player. I think you should trade a player to improve your team. Horford’s value is at a career low. Marvin remains in a similar situation. If you trade a player at a career low, you aren’t likely going to bring in a player who actually improves the team over the long-run. The best teams trade when a player’s value is close to an all-time high, not when it is in the toilet.
If Josh wants out and can leave with nothing coming back in about 100 games, the only alternative to trading him is wishing as you brush your teeth with your Hawks #5 toothbrush that he suddenly changes his mind and decides that he wants to continue to receive your undying love in a Hawks uni. That and the tooth fairy will get you about a buck and plenty of opportunities to discuss the Hawks status quo.
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
2:56 pm
With this draft there are a lot of projects so I’d like to keep Horford to train these big men.
Kevin Garnett was available and could have been had for Marvin/Hinrich + Horford. His size, intimidation, and antics. Surely a 1st rounder could have been included as the Cs have 2 and they get younger.
Then he would have expired. And we could have signed Anderson. Now the Cs blew Miami out the @ss.
Oh well.
Rick should have explored trades of Al+filler for Garnett’s expiring. But now I don’t see who fits our team more than Horford outside of a veteran true center.
Chandler. Dwight. Bynum.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
3:00 pm
” If our best trade asset wants out (and can leave in about 100 regular season games), why would we suggest keeping him?”
Because he’s the best player on the team and for once I would like to see an Atlanta sports team keep their best players.
We need to stop letting the DASG off the hook. Hold them accountable for becoming the type of organization that can convince Josh to stay.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
3:02 pm
“No need to try to dodge a certain team, or jockey for a certain path to the finals, when you’re as average as we are. Lace ‘em up & go at it. If you get beat down by Boston, then you dang sure aint got nothing for Miami or Chicago.”
Co-sign.
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
3:05 pm
“Because he’s the best player on the team and for once I would like to see an Atlanta sports team keep their best players.
We need to stop letting the DASG off the hook. Hold them accountable for becoming the type of organization that can convince Josh to stay.”
Here here. I’m tired of the Atlantean Pessimist Syndrome.
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
3:18 pm
If the best your best player can do is get youto a place when a good portion of the fan base is disinterested or considers the team a “loser”, than what’s the point of that best player staying. Come on guys, lottery teams have a “best player”. That designation is like the cutest girl in a room of non-attractive ladies. The problem with Atlanta teams isn’t about keeping the best players, its about building an elite team.
OB, how may mega starts have been traded when all the world knew they wanted out? I’d rather get something than get a trade exemption (like the Raptors or Cavs).
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
3:21 pm
I am not letting go of the fact the 76ers swept us and the lack of PT Smith has gotten against Deng and Iguodala and Pierce.
Some GMs and coaches see Anthony Davis as a 3.
Yet LD let Elton Brand blast Josh Smith in the paint and the 76ers outrebounded us 41-35.
Brand was the only one to have a double double and LD’s adjustments were:
A) let Zaza guard him (led to Smith vs Spencer Hawes, oi vey)
B) double/help down on Brand like we do to Dwight (led to an Iguodala 3-Ptr)
C) let Josh cover Brand 1-on-1 (led to a foul on Josh’s part)
Well at least Josh got 30pts playing against big men! Next highest scorer 15 points from JJ who had Iguodala on him.
Even without the rebounding edge, defensively LD is playing right into opposing coaches hands.
Bulls Thibodeau wants: Best Perimeter defender (Lu Deng-SF) on Joe Johnson (SG)
76ers Collins wants: Best Perimeter defender (Iguodala-SF) on Joe Johnson (SG)
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
3:27 pm
If our best trade asset wants out (and can leave in about 100 regular season games), why would we suggest keeping him.
———-
OK and Josh Smith can’t leave the team he was traded too? He isn’t on a long term contract that can stay for a rebuild or easily be traded like Al Horford.
AND he has a trade kicker, making him around a $15 mil contract.
Horford and his long term $12mil per year is still our most trade friendly asset. Sorry!
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
3:27 pm
If our best trade asset wants out (and can leave in about 100 regular season games), why would we suggest keeping him.
———-
OK and Josh Smith can’t leave the team he was traded too? He isn’t on a long term contract that can stay for a rebuild or easily be traded like Al Horford.
AND he has a trade kicker, making him around a $15 mil contract.
Horford and his long term $12mil per year is still our most trade friendly asset. Sorry!
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
3:45 pm
PGSlim, teams are always willing to trade for a highly productive player with a year left on their contract. It happens all of the time. Again, Al’s value has NEVER been lower and Josh’s value has NEVER been higher.
It kind of comes down to a willingness to accept the same results with a fan’s favorite player. Josh is beloved so folk don’t want to see him leave. But those same folk can’t realistically suggest tha trading Marvin or a banged up Horford makes more sense to change the future of the team. There is a very, very real scenario that could have us trade Al AND Josh leaves in 100 games. Imagine if Horford becomes our best player next season? I wonder how many will be talking about “we can’t trade our best player”… because it won’t change the team dynamic regardless of which of the 3 captains has the better season.
Next season, folk will be bemoaning the choice of the “filler” that was signed to a minimum salary contract. Moving to the next level is not about the minimum salary players, its about the top 2-3 players. Isee similare problems for the Pacers and 76ers… teams that are appraoching their ceiling due to above average but not elite talent. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Granger get traded because he won’t lead a team to the ECF, neither will Iggy. And when those teams make that type of old move to truly get better, fans of Josh will rip Sund a new one. Ironic.
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
3:46 pm
Hearing it Loudly!
“Here here. I’m tired of the Atlantean Pessimist Syndrome.”
________
Can you “Hear – Hear” that over here as well?
Just thought I’d pick up the slack for the DUI man today.
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
3:59 pm
…type of bold move…
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
4:08 pm
“The problem with Atlanta teams isn’t about keeping the best players, its about building an elite team.”
OK, so how does trading Josh and letting Joe and Al take up $30 million worth of cap room help the team? Who are the Hawks going to get in a Josh trade who is going to propel this team to greater heights?
There are two choices for this team: either improve the current core or blow it up. If improving the current core is the move, I’d rather keep my #1 player and move my #3 player for someone better rather than vice versa. Not only do you end up with a better quality roster, but since the #1 expires after next year, even if he decides to leave it only hastens the blow up/rebuild that is all but inevitable.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
4:13 pm
I also don’t agree about Al’s value being low. If he comes back and struggles, maybe, but it’s not like he had a microfracture or something that has lingering effects. I am pretty sure if the Hawks tried to trade him right now and he could pass a physical, they could get full value for him in a trade. He started non-contact practice work already today.
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
4:23 pm
“It wouldn’t surprise me to see Granger get traded because he won’t lead a team to the ECF, neither will Iggy. And when those teams make that type of old move to truly get better, fans of Josh will rip Sund a new one.”
You skipped a few steps. You mean make a type of move that makes them worse.
Iguodala/Granger doesn’t lead a team to the ECF then who wants him? And for what return?
Stop speaking in hypotheticals. If you have a Honest to Goodness Josh Smith trade that makes us better then state it.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
4:31 pm
University of Washington combo guard and possible Rick Sund man crush Tony Wroten declared for the draft today.
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
4:36 pm
Silver Lining!
One good thing about Al’s injury is, it will force him to develop a left hand while re-habing’ and dribbling the ball on that side. Also, he’ll be focusing on the lefty layup and hook shoot too hopefully. That seems inevitable to me.
How else is he going to re-gain basketball moves from that left shoulder?
________
Speaking of silver linings, there are some really dark clouds over South Dallas Texas right now. What a huge size and number (4) of tornadoes ripping through Forth Worth, TX airport right now. Pray for them, I got a lot of friends out there and that is where I took the Part IV National Board Exams for my license. The 4th largest city in the USA with a huge dense population – (6M)?
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
4:41 pm
Looters!
Ha Ha the Dallas looters are out in full effect. Flat Screen TV’s – watch out! Here they come, hip deep in muddy waters. LOL & SMH!
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
4:46 pm
Tony Wroten, Jr! Yerah! Najeh, do you think he will fall to 19? I saw Fab Melo dropped to 29th going to the Cavs, IDK if Fab Melo will fall that far and, should we pass on a project center since we got Teague?
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
4:48 pm
Umm that’s funny. Common sense would say Horford actually favors his right side more than ever.
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
4:53 pm
Sorry but I posted more than 1 link not once but twice,so blog monster got me.
Tony Wroten, Jr…Jordan Crawofrd. Jamal Crawford and now Kirk Hinrich.
Unless we are rebuilding and looking to move Joe get Fab Melo and be done with it.
We don’t need a shooting guard with no jumper.
While there’s little doubt he could put up numbers on a bad team in the NBA if given the minutes and enough possessions, the bigger question is if he can do so efficiently, within a team concept, and in a way that helps his team win games, something that will likely be dependent on the development of his decision-making, right hand, and perimeter shooting ability. The fact that he was unable to lead his team to the NCAA tournament, even in the very weak Pac-12, is a major red flag, and evidence of his struggles playing winning, efficient basketball at this stage of his career.
From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1r0qDuTGD
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
4:55 pm
Global Warming!
A perfect storm of warm air, cold air and barometric pressure is an Act of God, perpetuated by American Greed and environmental abuse. Call the EPA!
Funny thing the Governor of TX: Rick Perry, presidential hopeful said he wanted to shut down three agencies, but could only name two: The EPA, The Board of Education and Commerce. LOL @ the EPA … Karma is a biatch!
Tractor Trailes flying like toothpicks and landing on SUV’s. Scary stuff. Looks like Arkansas and OKC are in the line of destruction from a neighboring perspective.
Hope everyone is ok, and all our sports teams out there too.
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
5:03 pm
Here’s the Full 76ers game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnS0E2e1Pc0
go to the 1:22:10 mark. That’s one hour and 22 minutes in. And tell me what happens and what the Philly announcer says.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
5:05 pm
To be clear I have seen exactly zero University of Washington games and all I know of Wroten comes from Youtube highlights. I am not saying the Hawks should or should not draft him. I am only mentioning him because two separate people on Twitter, at least one of which is pretty credible, has linked the Hawks to him.
drmaryb.[*_*].
April 3rd, 2012
5:06 pm
Simpleton!
“Umm that’s funny. Common sense would say Horford actually favors his right side more than ever.”
__________
Here is a simple mind hard at work. Horford is not re-habing his right arm.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 3rd, 2012
5:06 pm
For that matter, I only saw two Syracuse games this season before the tournament, so I haven’t seen enough of Fab Melo to know if he will be good or not. If he is 7 feet tall and blocks shots, I wonder why he would slip to #29. Typically players like that are hard to find and get drafted higher.
Astro Joe
April 3rd, 2012
5:10 pm
Najeh, any 2 captains will cost a minimum of $24M (and that assumes Josh doesn’t get a raise in ~100 games). If you let Al go, guess how much cap space Josh & Joe take? The best path forward is to trade Josh or Al, whichever will bring back the most and then use amnesty on Joe in a year or two. Absent the use of amnesty on Joe, there are no other great answers for cap relief… unless you sell off Josh or Al for fish-heads and rice (like we once did with Al Harrington).
Michael Cunningham
April 3rd, 2012
5:18 pm
new blog posted. shutting down this thread.