Atlanta Hawks: Hawks vs. potential playoff foes
After looking at the numbers back on March 13, I concluded that the best outcome for the Hawks would be to draw Orlando in the first round and avoid Miami in the second. I updated the numbers for the Hawks today to reflect their rematches vs. Chicago and Philadelphia. I also added New York and Boston to the chart since it’s still conceivable the Hawks could face either of those foes in the first round.
Of the teams leading the Hawks in the East standings, the Magic still appear to be the best matchup, followed closely by Indiana. Every other matchup with the top 5 looks to be problematic.
The Sixers, currently seventh in the East but just a game behind Boston in their division, remain a terrible matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks have struggled to defend the Sixers even though they’ve managed to engage them in the low-possession games they prefer. Scoring against Philly hasn’t been easy for the Hawks, either, but at least they finally showed they could do it Saturday.
The one game against Boston showed that the Hawks labor to score against the Celtics like they usually do vs. good defensive teams. Maybe the Hawks figure it out in a series but probably best for them to avoid finding out.
Atlanta has only faced New York once twice, and it’s difficult to discount a team that puts the best player on the floor, but it looks as if work in the Hawks’ favor if they could somehow draw the Knicks. That’s especially true if Baron Davis and Mike Bibby will be absorbing Jeremy Lin’s minutes.
As for Miami and Chicago, that beatdown from the Derrick Rose-less Bulls last threw some water on the idea that Chicago might represent a better second-round matchup for Atlanta than the Heat. The defensive strength the Hawks showed against the Bulls in the first three meetings evaporated as they couldn’t slow Chicago’s space-the-floor, share-the-ball attack without Rose.
Here are Atlanta’s updated numbers against potential playoff opponents. Keep in mind they don’t take into account factors like injuries, schedule, etc.
Hawks (7-12 vs. peer group)
| Opponent | Record vs. | Off. Eff. vs. | Def. Eff. vs. | Avg. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 1-3 | 93.4 | 98.6 | -5 |
| Heat | 1-3 | 97.5 | 102.3 | -4 |
| Magic | 2-0 | 91.5 | 87.8 | +3.5 |
| Celtics | 0-1 | 83.5 | 86.8 | -3 |
| Sixers | 0-3 | 95.8 | 107.2 | -10 |
| Pacers | 2-1 | 100.7 | 99.6 | +1 |
| Knicks | 1-1 | 95.3 | 99.0 | -3.5 |
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180 comments Add your comment
Slimjr
April 2nd, 2012
8:08 pm
Chicago in 4…..
Slimjr
April 2nd, 2012
8:17 pm
Hawks (7-12 vs. peer group),
Gearon, you call this entertainment?
Blast
April 2nd, 2012
8:27 pm
With Philly, their game plan is pretty obvious. Philly is one of the only teams that has double teamed Joe in every game all game long. They never let up. And they never let Joe get in a groove. That’s why he averages about 12 points a game vs them. And for the love of me, Hawks can never seem to slash or cut when Joe is doubled. That means at least one man is open, right?
Nooooooo. Hawks would rather stand and watch, like they expect Joe to pull out a miracle.
Joe has blame in this too. He holds the ball too long even when he can see the double coming. He has to be quick and decisive, give the ball up early and set up for a catch and shoot.
About Hawks beating the elite teams?
Simple answer. Hawks are not elite. They don’t have the payroll to be elite, and they do not have the personnel, from players, coaches, GM and ownership to be elite either. Hawks are what they are for now, playoff bound, second round exit at the best.
So those 45 year old fans gripping about Hawks futility in winning it all, get over it. Your team is not good enough. You should be happy we have an NBA franchise in town at all.
And until we get a good center, Jeff improves big time, Josh keeps putting up monster numbers while cutting down on turnovers and jumpers, Joe learns to be quick and decisive, we limit turnovers overall, LD becomes a better coach, and Hawks play persistent defence for 48 hours or more, Hawks will always be a good team, but not an elite team that can win it all.
Slimjr
April 2nd, 2012
8:32 pm
Jettison the Core Scottie…
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
8:40 pm
Blast – I agree with everything you said except they are not and elite team, this team has talent and could achieve a better goal if LD make line up adjustment, last year the HAWKS ALMOST went 2 ECF but lost focus in game 6 and lost the series.
If you look at this year team compare to last year they are much better and deeper team.
Last year Jamal was the only fire power of the bench, this year you have a collective players and veteran that can come in game and get the job done.
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
April 2nd, 2012
8:49 pm
This blog monster is a freaking joke. Does anyone at AJC enough to fix this damn problem? I am about done posting on here
F””’g A
Blast
April 2nd, 2012
9:04 pm
Big Dog,
Remember I noted LD as one reason why this team is not over achieving? Coaches have always been a problem for Hawks because management always choose to go cheap.
Then, I personally believe Hawks can beat any team in this league if they played and defended smartly. I stated that in my last rant paragraph. But when you make dumb plays like let your opponent get offensive rebounds after the other, Joe pounds the ball against good team that will surely adjust, Josh throws one of those on the break passes, LD takes out productive players….
I’m just saying, Hawks have enough to make big time noise in the league, but they just gotta want it, put in the effort, and go out there and snatch it. I just don’t think these bunch of guys have the mojo to do that, even though I believe they HAVE THAT MOJO!
Marcus
April 2nd, 2012
9:05 pm
Short term, I want us to do well and give it our best. Finish strong and ball hard in the playoffs.
In the intermediate future, things should get real interesting come draft time and when Boss gets well. Josh is showing out this year, and up until last weeks 1-3 fiasco, it looked like JJ was flourishing at times as the ‘3′ in the three guard lineup. Be reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal interesting to see who we pick in the 1st round and what we decide to do in FA with our cheap vets, Heinrich, and Marvin Williams. Some mocks have us taking the SF from Vanderbilt.
Sautee
April 2nd, 2012
9:06 pm
“Hawks (7-12 vs. peer group),”
“Gearon, you call this entertainment?”
If that is truly the Hawks “peer group” shouldn’t they at least have a .500% record?
Maybe we aren’t truly peers with a few of those teams.
Blast
April 2nd, 2012
9:07 pm
Sh!t! That’s why I watch every game they play, hoping they can get better and step it up!!!! I believe they can at least get to the ECF if they played right with the present squad.
But do they believe that?
O'Brien
April 2nd, 2012
9:24 pm
Hawks need to play Indy or Orlando in the first round, and Chicago in the second round. That is their best way of making it to the ECF.
Because of injuries to Lin and Amare, I think the Hawks could beat the Knicks too. Any of the other teams would be a dog fight (imo).
SteveW
April 2nd, 2012
9:47 pm
Doc – So after reading what you’ve posted about Al’s injury, it looks like 6-12 months rehab time – ie, he’ll be back in time for training camp next season if all goes well.
So we go into this postseason with what we have. Get everybody healthy, all hands on deck, and go for it.
If Josh plays out of his mind, we still compete with anybody. That guy has shown me he can be crazy good much of the time.
Hawks vs. Heat:
Teague/Pargo vs. Chalmers/Cole = Maybe Teague gives us a slight edge, but it’s close.
Hinrich/Green vs DWade/Miller/Jones = Ha
JJ/Marvin/TMac/Stack vs LeBron/Battier = Pretty bad matchup here also, but at least JJ can hang a little with LeBron
Josh/Ivan/Vlad vs Bosh/Udonis = Maybe about a wash if we’re fortunate – Haslem is good
ZaZa vs Anthony/Turiaf = We can take them here.
Bo
April 2nd, 2012
9:50 pm
Hey Hawks fans, I made this for y’all: http://twitpic.com/94uwo9
justahawkfan
April 2nd, 2012
10:09 pm
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
April 2nd, 2012
8:49 pm
This blog monster is a freaking joke. Does anyone at AJC enough to fix this damn problem? I am about done posting on here
Yeah We are all worried. You will probably have to check into rehab if you stopped posting.
Yawn....
April 2nd, 2012
10:10 pm
Wow, we have a pro basketball team here in Atlanta?? News to me….
So now when does football season start again??
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
10:26 pm
Teague VS Chalmers
Hinrich VS Dwade
JJ VS Lebron
Josh VS Bosh
Zaza VS Anthony
Heat win 4 – 1
Teague VS Chalmers
JJ VS Dwade
Josh VS Lebron
Ivan VS Bosh
Zaza VS Anthony
DOUBLE OT IN GAME 7
Hawks win 4 -3
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
pointguardslim
April 2nd, 2012
10:28 pm
Actually Josh Smith played out of his mind and Elton Brand still had a 169 Offensive Rating.
We’re undersized and need to take Hinrich out of the lineup for bigger Horford. Unfortunately we’ll have to make due with Ivan.
Take Hinrich out and commit to more big lineups and we sweep Philly this year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOIzJGqz784
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
10:34 pm
Doc – Them the same symptoms on back of Tylenol bottle.
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
cdog
April 2nd, 2012
10:36 pm
PLAYOFFS? PLAYOFFS? WITH KIRK HINRICH A LOSER? WITH JEFF TEAGUE AND HIS STUPIDITY? ZA ZA PACHULIA GETTING KNOCK DOWN BY A 6′1 GUARD, CAN’T MAKE A LAYUP? LARRY DREW? AND YOU STILL ARE SAYING PLAYOFFS? HINRICH WILL COST YOU A GAME A GRIN ABOUT ALONG WITH HIS BUDDY TEAGUE AND YOU STILL SAY PLAYOFFS?
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
April 2nd, 2012
10:36 pm
I’m done posting here for a while. So f’ing sick of this blog monster
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
10:41 pm
Grandmaster JeJe – PLEASE DON’T PASS THE VIRUS or homeland security be knocking on your door bro.
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
doc
April 2nd, 2012
10:49 pm
big dog pretty funny clown that you are and fos:
http://getreliefresponsibly.com/safely/label.php
not even close dude. btw that sh!t is lethal.
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
10:56 pm
Anthony Davis remind me of a light skin Bill Russell, JUST DAM.
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
SteveW
April 2nd, 2012
11:05 pm
Looking Ahead:
Do the Hawks have a shot at going 7-0 the next 7 games?
Charlotte
Detroit
@Charlotte
@Boston (After Boston plays a tough 6 games beforehand, while we play 3 patsy’s in the same time frame)
@Orlando
Toronto
@Toronto
I would say it is not out of the realm of possibility of us to go 7-0, but 5-2 is more likely. That’s still not bad, and would put us 11 games over .500
BIG DOG
April 2nd, 2012
11:06 pm
DOC – What is that Aspartame you just posted, JUST DAM.
BIG DOG IN THE HOUSE
SteveW
April 2nd, 2012
11:10 pm
I just don’t know how many wars Mike Miller, Battier, and Haslem have left in them. There all getting pretty old and have battle some injuries. And they will be vital for the Heat’s success this postseason.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
April 2nd, 2012
11:17 pm
Lol @ justhawkfan. Whatever dude. I am a legend.
High-sider
April 2nd, 2012
11:22 pm
“pointguardslim” uploads [his] videos to YouTube to prove his point[s]; you ["pointguardslim"] are hilarious. Check out “pointguardslim”’s post/comment @10″28pm and the link provided; now, check out the account name in the YouTube [uploaded] video. LOL
High-sider
April 2nd, 2012
11:23 pm
^should be “10:28pm”
doc
April 2nd, 2012
11:43 pm
just dam, big dog in the house, cant tell the dif between aspartame and acetaminophen. also kind of huge in the blog with both gm jeje and big dog posting so close together. large around here. heh heh
be well big dog and stay away from both.
High-sider
April 2nd, 2012
11:45 pm
Wildcats claw their way to victory over the Jayhawks, 67-59. Calipari gets his first NCAA championship. Kentucky has the best [men's] college basketball team [this year] that money can buy. And they say “cheaters never win” – yeah, right. [sarcasm]
Rufus1
April 3rd, 2012
12:03 am
“Hawks (7-12 vs. peer group),”
I bet only 2 teams have a winning record against their peers.
jeppz23
April 3rd, 2012
12:11 am
I think a scenario where the hawks get to the ECF would be
1st round- Orlando, Indiana, or Boston (Boston would be tough, but I think we would beat the Pacers or Magic in 6)
2nd round- Chicago..we’ve played well against this team the whole year! I think if the hawks play disciplined, smart ball they could run with them
ECF- Heat-Well, this would be tough..and our journey would more than likely stop here..
pointguardslim
April 3rd, 2012
12:15 am
Um yes High-sider those are my videos. Use Common sense.
If you are Coach Collins who would you rather have Iguodala and Turner match up with?
A) Joe Johnson and Kirk Hinrich
B) Joe Johnson and Josh Smith
Hawks need to match Smith with Iguodala(PHI) and Carmelo(NY), adding more size to the frontline, and getting Joe the SG matchup, to slow down these teams.
Franjly, I don’t think we would have lost versus Boston either.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuklWpNBhE0
kingd92
April 3rd, 2012
12:17 am
LD needs to take Tmac out of his doghouse and stop playing favoritism. We need Tmac in the 4th quarter instead of Hinrich. He excelled in this role when Kirk was injured. I know you all remember that 4th quarter against the Heat. This situation needs to get straightened out before the playoffs or we will definitely struggle against better teams.
Rufus1
April 3rd, 2012
12:47 am
I hope the Hawks draft him…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdYRh5oEJ4U
Royce White
High-sider
April 3rd, 2012
12:51 am
@pointguardslim
I have nothing against you but you tend to lose/diminish credibility in making/establishing your point[s] when you use your own material [articles, literature, videos, etc.] as reference[s] to back up or substantiate your argument/point[s]. If you were to use reference material not authored and/or created by you, pointguardslim, but someone else, in order to establish/make your point[s]/case, that would further enhance your credibility. Let’s keep it real; do you and others expect you, pointguardslim, to disagree with yourself when you cite videos, articles, literature, etc. created/authored by you as [a] reference or references? Again, I have nothing against you. I just thought it was [too] funny. LOL
Buddy Grizzard
April 3rd, 2012
12:58 am
“All it took was one fairly obvious coaching adjustment to turn Orlando from a terrible matchup to a great one. ” – Najeh
Bit of an oversimplification there. You may recall, Rashard Lewis averaged 17 ppg in the ORL sweep of the Hawks in 2010 and Vince Carter averaged almost 19.
All it took was for those two players to get a year older and Otis Smith to make some more panic trades. Also gone after that year were Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes, who hurt the Hawks, and Marcin Gortat, who didn’t do much in that series, but who has proven to be a quality starting center for PHX.
Grandad
April 3rd, 2012
1:15 am
To whomever gets the 1st pick in the lottery:
Any or all Hawks for the # 1 pick !
Suggested pkg;
Josh, Al, & Teague
-for-
Anthony Davis … `scuse me … the # 1 pick overall pick.
____________________________________________
Probly not enuff ?
____________________________________________
That kid is somethin` else !
Buddy Grizzard
April 3rd, 2012
1:59 am
“do you think its time to break it up for good?” – Mike
The rebuild is pending in the summer of 2013. Zaza and Josh are not under contract past next season. If the Hawks fail to extend Josh, this instantly becomes a lottery team.
Buddy Grizzard
April 3rd, 2012
2:05 am
“RUMOR HU, TMAC WANT TO BE RELEASE SO HE CAN SIGN WITH THE HEAT, JUST DAM.”
Big Dog, you are in the house, but the deadline for players to sign with a new team and be included on that team’s playoff roster has passed. In other words, NO could buy out Chris Kaman today, the Hawks could sign him, but he could not play in the playoffs for the Hawks because the deadline has passed. Same thing for T-Mac. We could buy him out, he could sign with the Heat and play the rest of the regular season, but he could not play for them in the playoffs.
Buddy Grizzard
April 3rd, 2012
2:25 am
“last year the HAWKS ALMOST went 2 ECF but lost focus in game 6 and lost the series.”
They didn’t lose focus. LD predictably started Collins and Chicago ate him alive. He started out guarding Boozer who floated out to midrange where Collins doesn’t have the foot speed to guard him. After Boozer made some buckets, the Hawks quickly switched Horford onto Boozer and let Collins guard Noah. Very next play they give it to Noah outside the three point line just to the left of the top of the circle. He put it on the floor and drove around Collins like he was a fire hydrant and made a layup. Just like that CHI was up 8 and never looked back.
Buddy Grizzard
April 3rd, 2012
2:26 am
PS, Collins has been one of the worst players in the NBA for the last 7 seasons:
http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2012/03/is-jason-collins-playing-too-much.html
vava74
April 3rd, 2012
2:43 am
Buddy,
Collins is a specialist and I am sure that Zaza’s new found ability to defend the post has been a direct consequence of observing Collins defend guys in the paint.
That makes his a valuable 12th man on the bench which can be inserted for spot minutes of post defense when someone is beasting us.
A quick example: Love was burning Zaza in the paint and Collins came in and bumped him for a couple of plays a missed hook shots.
The same was happening with Pekovic scoring on Zaza.
Love quickly went outside for face up basket and was harassed by Ivan into missing long jumpers and 3 pointers.
Collins also bumped Pekovic and made him feel less comfortable and shortly after we had the game under control.
That, however, does not mean that Collins can and should be used like LD does.
My guess is that LD – just like he did with Hinrich – is playing Collins just to get him in rhythm and back to game shape, however, it bewilders me that he is not doing the same with Dampier who seemed to be good in the spot minutes he was getting and actually getting us a few rebounds.
vava74
April 3rd, 2012
3:37 am
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/kobe-bryant-becoming-big-problem-for-los-angeles-lakers-033012
brigadierjerry
April 3rd, 2012
6:40 am
It would not suprise me if LD leaves Mcgrady off of the playoff roster.
Also sadly Ivan is going to get a bigger payday by some other team and the Hawks will absolutely do nothing to match the other teams offer. Would like to see if the Hawks offer the LLE, lower level exception to Ivan but probably wont happen
Rev in Tampa
April 3rd, 2012
7:18 am
Wow! The Magic have an easy schedule through the end of April. The two best teams, in terms of winning pct., are the Hawks and Celtics. They play Memphis and Denver as well, those two teams have worse records but are in the Western Conference.
STRETCH THIS YO
April 3rd, 2012
8:12 am
Is Al Horford going to play at all this year MC ?
STRETCH THIS YO
April 3rd, 2012
8:14 am
Sweep Philly ? Hawks haven’t come close to beating Philly this year. Man I hate ignorant bloggers.
Slimjr
April 3rd, 2012
8:29 am
Doug Collins in 4