Atlanta Hawks: How much have injuries really hurt them?
Jerry Stackhouse figures he’s probably been on a team that’s had as many injuries, though he can’t recall exactly. “Over 17 years I’m sure it happened somewhere along the line,” he said, chuckling.
But Stackhouse says the bad run of injuries isn’t really a topic of conversation among Hawks players: “We say there’s more room over there on the bench. We aren’t all on top of each other. But other than that, we don’t really talk about it. This is the NBA.”
That’s what you expect players to say, especially with a team that’s as veteran as the Hawks. Injuries are a part of the game, no one feels sorry for a team that’s riddled with them and so the Hawks have to keep on grinding. They are professional athletes, supremely confident, and so they believe they can win anyway.
The circumstances are different for coach Larry Drew and general manager Rick Sund. Ask them to evaluate the team so far and they are sure to talk about the injuries. It makes sense because neither Sund nor Drew has a guaranteed contract for next season (Drew has an option) and their future with the team could depend how this season plays out. Can’t blame Drew and Sund for making sure the team’s injuries are part of that evaluation, like any of us would make sure our bosses know when circumstances outside of our control impacted our job performance. The process is just a lot more public for Drew and Sund.
Both men are always sure to note they are not making excuses, but of course that’s how some will take it. Most people don’t want to hear about how injuries contribute to a team not meeting expectations. That’s especially true for fans, who expect their team to win anyway.
My take has been that the Hawks have been pretty good in spite of the injuries especially with their intangibles. I think there’s little question the Hawks have shown some real growth in that area, from the 101-point beatdown from Orlando, to showing more moxie in the last year’s playoffs, to staying competitive this year in spite of the injuries. That’s not to give them too much credit for competing under trying circumstance but I don’t have to tell my blog people that’s not always been a given.
It’s difficult to objectively evaluate a team that’s had this many injuries. How much have the Hawks really been impacted by injuries? Do they have it any worse than the other teams in their peer group? I tried to find out in a way that goes beyond the “x amount of players have missed y amount of games,” an exercise that brings to mind that the Hawks included Pape Sy (never forget) in that count two seasons ago.
Inspired by a Basketball Proespectus blog post by Kevin Pelton last season, my goal was to quantify Atlanta’s injuries in a meaningful way and compare them to the other playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. (Pelton, ambitious as ever, evaluated all 30 teams in his analysis.)
Like Pelton, I looked at the games missed by players and also multiplied that number by their average minutes. To further measure the quality of players lost to injury, Pelton used WARP, a linear-weights formula he developed. I went with Basketball Reference creator Justin Kubato’s Win Shares to make a “Win Shares lost” projection based on average minutes played multiplied by win-shares per minute and games missed.
(Follow the links if you are interested in the details of how WARP and WS are calculated.)
“Win shares lost” is not the same thins as saying the injured players’ teams would win that many more games if they’d never missed time because obviously their minutes were replaced by players of varying quality. But it gives a sense of the quality of the players that have missed games with injuries. Also, this analysis doesn’t take into account players who remain in the lineup but are less effective because of injuries, the impact of having multiple injuries at one position, etc.
(Chart includes games through last Thursday.)
| Team | Players | Games | Minutes+ | Win shares^ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 8 | 107 | 20,287 | 5.54 |
| Bulls | 7 | 78 | 14,531 | 5.678 |
| Heat | 5 | 29 | 4,066 | 2.82 |
| Magic | 6 | 29 | 4,396 | 1.30 |
| Sixers | 5 | 38 | 4,788 | 3.54 |
| Pacers | 3 | 49 | 3,459 | 1.34 |
| Celtics | 10 | 84 | 21,386 | 3.76 |
| Knicks# | 6 | 50 | 8,395 | 2.55 |
+ Minutes per game when healthy * games missed
^ Win shares per minute * minutes per game when healthy * games missed
# Does not include Baron Davis’ injury before he played for the team.
You can see the Hawks have lost more games to injuries than any other East playoff team. They’ve also “lost” among the most minutes and win shares to injuries. Using these criteria, you could argue that only the Bulls have been hurt more by injuries than Atlanta among East playoff teams, which makes Chicago’s season even more impressive.
Again, these numbers can’t measure all of the factors that determine how much injuries affect these teams. But I think this analysis makes it clear the Hawks’ injuries have been significant in relation to their peer group.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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316 comments Add your comment
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:38 pm
DawgNole, wow! What an awesome story and life you had growing up. Your Father sounds like a really smart and intersting guy. What did you earn your degree in, and where did you study? So, you can root for two college teams now, I love Warrick Dunn from FSU, did you follow his college and pro career? He’s a great player and an even better guy.
Thanks for sharing that, I woulda’ never guessed that one.
Columbus
March 27th, 2012
3:50 pm
If not FOR the injuries we wouldnt have Teague playing and for the LIFE OF ME I cannot understand why Za ZA does not play more than he has the last several years! The more he plays the better he plays but gettign a few minutes a game a doesnt get you any flow or rhythm. I remember so many times when he just sits. I mean is this another stereotype thing similar to Lind? And Teague..It is like players get “labeled” in ATL and can NEVER shake it. Get OUT OF THE BOX. Play ZA ZA!
Columbus
March 27th, 2012
3:53 pm
I see Josh finally hit a 3 the other night after being 0-14, 0-18 or something. Heck he can hit 3’s SOMETIMES, we ALL can but that does not mean we SHOULD be shooting them so often! If you are in a groove, fine but if you ARENT, dont KEEP PUTTING THEM UP! Everything has its time and FORCING them anyway is STUBBORN, SELFISH, HARD-HEADED and DUMB BASKETBALL!
Grandad
March 27th, 2012
3:53 pm
Pompous, degenerate, anal, old fart:
finally;
someone who understands me.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:54 pm
I don’t gamble, but I’m so strapped … Even I bought a ticket with my “lucky” nimbers! If yawl don’t hear from me tomorrow … you know wassup!
I’ll leave season tickets, courtside far and near for the wntire blog crew at the will call window for the next ten years! Hey, why stop there? I’ll just see if Tiger Woods lost that yacht in the divorce and see if he wants to sell it!
I’ll personally get Worldwide Clyde over to Rio – permanently, he can pay somebody to negotiate the T-Shirt contracts! Whooppee!
With this plan, I’ll be broke by Sunset! Move over Spike Lee and Jack Nicholson … I’ll be the Hawks new biggest fan, courtside with my blog crew! LOL!
doc
March 27th, 2012
4:02 pm
grandad, trust me, i’m a doctor and laughs along with you. one out means three back. i think i only referred to you as 2/4.
funny, the instinct it is to scroll past three capped words in a row. kind of like a self protection mechanism.
doc
March 27th, 2012
4:04 pm
how timely is this:
http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/mega-millions-fever-tips-buying-lucky-lottery-ticket-233721999–abc-news.html
see you there.
get a feeling someone was holding out on us with the most salient info of the day rather than asking for buy ins to share?
doc
March 27th, 2012
4:23 pm
of course we could have fallen out of space and ended up clipper fans and deal with this:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/clipper-coach-vinny-del-negro-probably-count-front-194009018.html;_ylt=AjtrV6X8STQnWPZUkv.2ACi8vLYF
ill take my punishment here. four playoff series in 30 years and stern gives him paul and rapes new orleans. only in the nba.
pointguardslim
March 27th, 2012
4:29 pm
Knicks *YAWN*
Great win vs Utah. Go Hawks! Also Renardo Sidney says he’s tired of being fat and getting thrown under the bus.
Has gone pro and is on that IMG Dejuan Blair plan.
Chances he gets past us at the #42 pick?
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
4:37 pm
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:38 pm
DawgNole, wow! What an awesome story and life you had growing up. Your Father sounds like a really smart and intersting guy. What did you earn your degree in, and where did you study? So, you can root for two college teams now, I love Warrick Dunn from FSU, did you follow his college and pro career? He’s a great player and an even better guy.
_____________________
You bet I pulled for Warrick Dunn–a model citizen in every way. Only opposing player I ever heard Spurrier say something positive about. That was after the infamous “Choke in Doak” (1994), when the hated gators blew a 31-3 lead with a little over 10 mins to play against Dunn and the Noles in Tallahassee.
Degree – BA in Journalism/UGA
Lost my father a few years ago. He was an academic–spoke fluently in several languages–but fit comfortably with any crowd. Didn’t care much about sports, but made a genuine effort to learn because of my intense interest. A good man.
pointguardslim
March 27th, 2012
4:38 pm
Its just that in a town where the fans are maligned for being bandwagoners and imports and just all around bad/fairweather, I can’t believe frequent bloggers “slimjr’ and “drmary B” have the gall to come in and blog about the New York Knickerbockers…
SMDH… FOUR Overtimes! Talk about that!
And also Renardo Sidney plans to lose weight. He can be Marvin Williams with more Size Toughness and Rebounding when his shot disappears.
We get a big lineup option too and he can space for Al + Josh yet still crash glass and this creates all sorts of problems.
If all goes well he’ll be 270-280 lbs + 6′10 + a outside + inside matchup nightmare to complement Josh + Al. Remind of any PFs we used to have?
I called him Renard “Rasheed” Sidney.
Thoughts MC?
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
4:44 pm
Call em’ Out!
What a bunch of hypocrites in Congress on Capital Hill! Obama is boarding Air Force One from Seoul Korea to sign a new bill passed by Congress to ban:
Insider Trading of Congressmen from non-public information. In other words these congressional committees sit in on legislative meetings to approve corporate requests, (i.e. Lobbied by CEO’s with 10K campaign checks) to improve their profits and screw the people, employees, consumers.
Obama called them out and now he has a bill to sign into law just a few hours ago, when he returns to the White House. Yeah! Funny thing is, they locked up Martha Stewart for doing the very same thing they’ve down for centuries. Martha lied about doing it though, she went down for perjury to a federal investigator. When caught, she should have said, “Hell yeah! I did that!”. She would have gone home with a fine.
Talk about never the crime – always the cover up! She turned a misdemeanor into a felony – she lied, served a year in a prison, and, can never sit on a Corporate Board as CEO ever again, not even her own empire. Luckily, she has a daughter who can do that for her and follow Martha’s orders. Puppet Show?
Bottom line is the criminal lawmakers just got called out! My question is: What took so long?
____________
Problem is, they’ll find another way to make capital gains … Can you say, “Call a Friend?” (Who wants to be a Millionaire?). Congressmen may only make $175k/year … but, the perks are unbelievable and priceless. All that information leads to a lot of power!
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
4:47 pm
PGS: If I were a Hawks fan for 45 years I would leaped off the Golden Gate Bridge last summer when I was out there taking pictures in San-Francisco…Hehehehehehe
some nerve huh?
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
4:48 pm
* they’ve DONE for centuries …
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
4:49 pm
Friday Night Fights!!
doc
March 27th, 2012
4:52 pm
dawgnole – ba journalism – should have felt that one coming. at the time, one of the better degrees at uga or maybe nation in that field if memory serves.
dude, i will rub every raw nerve you got. sorry lost my perfectionism as a surgeon when i left that field so my style as relaxed as it is will hurt your eyes. no life or death here if you catch my drift and sometimes other pressing matters in life or work and i really struggle with typing. so apologies plus cant figute out how to review all of text on an iphone.
Grandad
March 27th, 2012
4:54 pm
doc
I know;
-but-
being grandiloquent and bombastic, if not pompous,
and certainly OCD rather than anal;
I still accepted the compliment.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
4:56 pm
Believe It!
PGS said, ” I can’t believe frequent bloggers “slimjr’ and “drmary B” have the gall to come in and blog about the New York Knickerbockers…”
_____
Believe IT son! I can post whatever I like – you did it! Its my turn now. My family roots are in NY, NY! I am not from Atlanta, GA … I just on a business, employ 7 people, pay payroll taxes, property taxes in GA for 25 years – AND, I can walk and chew gum at the same time!
If you don’t like it? Move to Afghanistan!!! I’ll buy you a one way ticket!
Grandad
March 27th, 2012
4:57 pm
doc
yes – I gathered your point – (2 of 4)
degenerate old fart … heh heh heh
AG
March 27th, 2012
4:57 pm
Why are we even talking about JC? He is a Blazer. Since his departure, JJ has grown a pair and is hitting the last shot.
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:00 pm
dmb: Talk about never the crime – always the cover up!
exactly what the nfl is about now as mv 7 and sean payton have come to find out. two things for sure dont lie to commish nor the feds. you dead, they good. it was what got those guys hurt, worst action against indivduals since horning and karras.
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:02 pm
heh heh heh heh to gdad seeing eye to eye.
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:05 pm
is that anything like a tranquiloquist or eloquent. notice i didnt choose transvestite.
Dept. Of Unintended Irony
March 27th, 2012
5:12 pm
“Lower the bar:”
“The Hawks in 45 years have never partook in an EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL!”
Have never partook? I think you just lowered the bar for grammar on the blog, lol
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
5:14 pm
doc: “no life or death here if you catch my drift and sometimes other pressing matters in life or work and i really struggle with typing. so apologies plus cant figute out how to review all of text on an iphone.”
___________________
Hell, I didn’t even own a cell phone (smart phone) until 3 months ago. I’m still trying to figure out how to answer it, and texting my name takes me about an hour, so I prefer my laptop for blogging and other communications.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
5:15 pm
Awesome Dude! I have joined the Hawks in lowering da Bar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
5:16 pm
DawgNole
So sorry to hear about your dad, what an awesome man he appears to be, now his spirit lives and thrives inside of you.
Being a historian and all, it really shows love for his son to show an interest in your passion for sports. It doesn’t surprise me that you have a degree in Journalism/UGA, it shows in your communication skills and superior writing style and, basketball opinions.
Again, this is the smartest blog from all walks of life. While having a college degree alone, doesn’t make you smart, being open minded, objective and an active listener – does!
DawgNole, thanks for sharing that. I admire your story.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 27th, 2012
5:16 pm
FIRE LD
Buddy Grizzard
March 27th, 2012
5:17 pm
“My question is: What took so long?”
Election cycle?
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
5:17 pm
Dept. Of Unintended Irony
March 27th, 2012
5:12 pm
“Lower the bar:”
“The Hawks in 45 years have never partook in an EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL!”
Have never partook? I think you just lowered the bar for grammar on the blog, lol
________________________
Didn’t think the blog grammar bar could get much lower.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 27th, 2012
5:18 pm
Fire gearon
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
5:21 pm
I believe your thong is too tight Dept. lol
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
5:23 pm
* I just OWN a busines …
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:26 pm
dawgnole, i went the smart phone route and am looking dumber and dumber. i know not hard. earlier today respecting my now retired elder i had a nice philosophical post going and tried to get cute to clean it up and lost the whole thing. never again!
really i thought i had figured out how to make the iphone scroll inside the box so i could review what had not gone as expected. man, no instructions, supposed to be intuitive and costs a fortune and i still cant do without it now to keep up with appts linking into my apple and still flail at using one. and nope dont have the apps to put on it except what was delivered and one of my daughters thought i needed and never have used.
yup as you would expect, i never could figure out the pc as i refused to learn how to turn one on or off until into the 21st century, literally. ah, misspent youth.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
5:26 pm
OKAY lets rephrase for you ladies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“The Hawks in 45 years have never participated in an EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL!”
Much better ladies……!@#$%^&*()_
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:29 pm
dmb, gdad, slimj everyone!,we got to shake up this journalism major sh!t before it gets real nasty.
not really ….
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:35 pm
slimj, what time was tea today or am i late?
organic lemon and some manuka hoeny, my usual please.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
5:39 pm
bout 11am doc! lol!
doc
March 27th, 2012
5:41 pm
just for the record sautee reminded me that white named herb was from decatur and kwayme was from brunswick
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
5:45 pm
MIA!
How could I forget:
Rod from CP
BigDave
GeeMack
Hands down, three of my favorite blog posters! I surely bumped my head. Love these guys! Sorry fella! I did a roll call and as always, forgot my manners!
Big Up! Fantastic comments today, I’m watching Good Times right now … JJ is a trip! LOL!
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
5:52 pm
MIA!
My BuddyG! I can’t believe I left your name off the All Start Blog Team earlier today. My bad,m how could I forget my “Buddy Love!”? LOL!
Election Cycle! I forgot about that … with all the shenanigans going on with contraception rights, I totally forgot. LOL!
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
6:07 pm
“Have never partook? I think you just lowered the bar for grammar on the blog, lol”
Where’s your punctuation at the end of that sentence? Making fun of grammar when you failed, too–talk about irony.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
6:15 pm
“My family roots are in NY, NY! I am not from Atlanta, GA.” drmaryb
I’m from queens, but I don’t cheer for another team on a blog for the Hawks. You could always post on Knick’s boards if you like them do much.
All jesting aside, I already have seasons one and two of the Walking Dead on my computer–pirated, of course. I’ve watched it from beginning to end after the season two finale. I love that show. Have you checked out Breaking Bad yet?
Ken Strickland
March 27th, 2012
6:15 pm
The Hawks have acquired one trait that goes into making a championship team, and that’s mind over matter. When a team is physically and emotionally spent after playing 3gms in 3nights and has to endure 4 overtime periods, and they don’t concede an inch or give up, it shows they’ve acquired a collective mental toughness.
I know how easy it is for some to think they’ll mail the next 4gms in, but I don’t think so. They’ll play the next 4 the same way they played the last 3. They might not win all 4, but they won’t lose all 4 either.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 27th, 2012
6:25 pm
FIRE RICK SUND
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 27th, 2012
6:38 pm
“I know how easy it is for some to think they’ll mail the next 4gms in, but I don’t think so. They’ll play the next 4 the same way they played the last 3. They might not win all 4, but they won’t lose all 4 either.”
Brilliant points.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
7:09 pm
KS: “I know how easy it is for some to think they’ll mail the next 4gms in, but I don’t think so. They’ll play the next 4 the same way they played the last 3. They might not win all 4, but they won’t lose all 4 either.”
_____________
Guess we’ll know in a week or so.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
7:11 pm
I went the smart phone route, too, doc (from never having owned a cell phone). Funny how the things make you feel so stupid.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
7:13 pm
RIP Ada Sharpton!
“Son, if you throw a rock into a pile of hogs, the one you hit – is the one that will holler.”. -Ada Sharpton 1925-2012
Thank you Al Sharpton for sharing that pearl of wisdom from your sweet Mother, she was buried today in Alabama.
_________
What I take from this quote is that, you must not only speak out against injustice, you must take action and, may even have to chunk a few rocks to get a knuckle heads attention.
The greedy people in this world are like a pack of hogs, as long as they are eating, getting fat and satisfied … they take no notice, nor give a rat’s azz about anyone else.
As long as their is food available they will eat, they will continue to glutton and, fill their own bellies – even while others starve. There is never enough satisfaction when you’re a hog. So, if you can hit one and make it holler … Just maybe, perhaps you can get a bite too – when he looks away or, come up for air.
There is no food for the timid and weak!
_________
I hope the Hawks stay hungry – I know I will! Let’s Go! Beat Milwaukee.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
7:14 pm
Herb White from Decatur brings back memories. He was at UGA when I was. At 6-2, he had springs in his legs–and the Stegman crowd used to get revved up watching his dunks during pregame warmups (as someone recalled earlier).