Atlanta Hawks: How much have injuries really hurt them?
Jerry Stackhouse figures he’s probably been on a team that’s had as many injuries, though he can’t recall exactly. “Over 17 years I’m sure it happened somewhere along the line,” he said, chuckling.
But Stackhouse says the bad run of injuries isn’t really a topic of conversation among Hawks players: “We say there’s more room over there on the bench. We aren’t all on top of each other. But other than that, we don’t really talk about it. This is the NBA.”
That’s what you expect players to say, especially with a team that’s as veteran as the Hawks. Injuries are a part of the game, no one feels sorry for a team that’s riddled with them and so the Hawks have to keep on grinding. They are professional athletes, supremely confident, and so they believe they can win anyway.
The circumstances are different for coach Larry Drew and general manager Rick Sund. Ask them to evaluate the team so far and they are sure to talk about the injuries. It makes sense because neither Sund nor Drew has a guaranteed contract for next season (Drew has an option) and their future with the team could depend how this season plays out. Can’t blame Drew and Sund for making sure the team’s injuries are part of that evaluation, like any of us would make sure our bosses know when circumstances outside of our control impacted our job performance. The process is just a lot more public for Drew and Sund.
Both men are always sure to note they are not making excuses, but of course that’s how some will take it. Most people don’t want to hear about how injuries contribute to a team not meeting expectations. That’s especially true for fans, who expect their team to win anyway.
My take has been that the Hawks have been pretty good in spite of the injuries especially with their intangibles. I think there’s little question the Hawks have shown some real growth in that area, from the 101-point beatdown from Orlando, to showing more moxie in the last year’s playoffs, to staying competitive this year in spite of the injuries. That’s not to give them too much credit for competing under trying circumstance but I don’t have to tell my blog people that’s not always been a given.
It’s difficult to objectively evaluate a team that’s had this many injuries. How much have the Hawks really been impacted by injuries? Do they have it any worse than the other teams in their peer group? I tried to find out in a way that goes beyond the “x amount of players have missed y amount of games,” an exercise that brings to mind that the Hawks included Pape Sy (never forget) in that count two seasons ago.
Inspired by a Basketball Proespectus blog post by Kevin Pelton last season, my goal was to quantify Atlanta’s injuries in a meaningful way and compare them to the other playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. (Pelton, ambitious as ever, evaluated all 30 teams in his analysis.)
Like Pelton, I looked at the games missed by players and also multiplied that number by their average minutes. To further measure the quality of players lost to injury, Pelton used WARP, a linear-weights formula he developed. I went with Basketball Reference creator Justin Kubato’s Win Shares to make a “Win Shares lost” projection based on average minutes played multiplied by win-shares per minute and games missed.
(Follow the links if you are interested in the details of how WARP and WS are calculated.)
“Win shares lost” is not the same thins as saying the injured players’ teams would win that many more games if they’d never missed time because obviously their minutes were replaced by players of varying quality. But it gives a sense of the quality of the players that have missed games with injuries. Also, this analysis doesn’t take into account players who remain in the lineup but are less effective because of injuries, the impact of having multiple injuries at one position, etc.
(Chart includes games through last Thursday.)
| Team | Players | Games | Minutes+ | Win shares^ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 8 | 107 | 20,287 | 5.54 |
| Bulls | 7 | 78 | 14,531 | 5.678 |
| Heat | 5 | 29 | 4,066 | 2.82 |
| Magic | 6 | 29 | 4,396 | 1.30 |
| Sixers | 5 | 38 | 4,788 | 3.54 |
| Pacers | 3 | 49 | 3,459 | 1.34 |
| Celtics | 10 | 84 | 21,386 | 3.76 |
| Knicks# | 6 | 50 | 8,395 | 2.55 |
+ Minutes per game when healthy * games missed
^ Win shares per minute * minutes per game when healthy * games missed
# Does not include Baron Davis’ injury before he played for the team.
You can see the Hawks have lost more games to injuries than any other East playoff team. They’ve also “lost” among the most minutes and win shares to injuries. Using these criteria, you could argue that only the Bulls have been hurt more by injuries than Atlanta among East playoff teams, which makes Chicago’s season even more impressive.
Again, these numbers can’t measure all of the factors that determine how much injuries affect these teams. But I think this analysis makes it clear the Hawks’ injuries have been significant in relation to their peer group.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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316 comments Add your comment
northcyde
March 27th, 2012
1:26 pm
Rod, those are his shooting % this year in Portland.
You act like the Jamal we saw in the Orlando series is the norm for him. Nope. He has never been a consistently good basketball player. He’s always been a hot and cold player. That’s why we need more people on the bench who have the opportunity to score the basketball. It’ll give us more of a chance to ride a hot hand, than to simply rely on the “roller coaster” every game for bench points.
Much better to split up 18 shots between Marvin, Green and Pargo, and feed the hot hand between those 3 …… than to give Jamal 18 shots, and see him only play well 35% of the time.
That’s why truly good teams avoid Jamal like the plague, despite his offensive skills.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
1:29 pm
hawkville
March 27th, 2012
11:34 am
Yeah, the “championship in 45 years” is getting old but you have the right to say what you want. Maybe someone can go back in time and change those 45 years. Just saying”
_________________________
Or maybe the team could just go ahead and win a championship for a change. That would be the best way to make those 45 years irrelevant.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
1:31 pm
Al injury supposedly takes anywhere from 6-9 months to fully heal..
Hes done…Next!
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
1:33 pm
Najeh: “I am guessing they will beat all the below .500 teams . . . but I’ll keep my expectations reasonable.”
________________________
Hm-m-m-m-m-m.
Astro Joe
March 27th, 2012
1:39 pm
doc, I dispise the dang if you do and dang if you don’t mindset. LD doesn’t get credit for keeping the team afloat because he stumbled upon a solution that works. Could you imagine if people who invented something useful by accident didn’t receive credit/income for their invention? Jed Camplett would have never moved to Beverly Hills because he didn’t intentionally uncover the oil on his land.
Seriously, there were other options worth exploring for each and every injury that took place. He opted for options that have resulted in a similar winning percentage as previous years (and likely one that will exceed his first year as the head coach). But several want to deny giving him credit? That’s BS in my book. Likewise, we have NO idea if option B (let’s assume he tried option A) would have been better. We don’t know because most head coaches aren’t paid to operate their team in the comfort of a lab. There are probably less than 1,000 people in metro Atlanta who would pay their hard-earned money to watch a basketball “scientist” explore various line-up changes, position changes, play-calling, etc. during an NBA season. If someone wants to tinker, they should pick up an EA video game and sit in their mother’s basement and see what happens when Ivan plays 36 minutes and TMac is the PG. Meanwhile, I’m ready to give LD (whose hiring I decried) full credit for this team’s unlikely success amidst injuries to key players (and an exhausting schedule).
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
1:40 pm
Spirited Banter!
Hey doc, sugar lumps … Said this:
“if anyone thinks he or it is any more than that, then that is their problem. we are all just jawing here, rather than down at the barber shop or service station over a cup of coffee like men used to do.” -doc-
__________
And, little girls too! My dad owned Barber Shops and I sat for hours waiting for the dollars to pile up, so I could head to the Mall and, do what I love – SHOP!!!!!!!!!
Good stuff was going on in the barber shop, of course the conversation cleaned up while I was there. LOL! The blog reminds of the Barber Shop – everyone has an opinion and will go down swinging – right or wrong, it doesn’t matter … It’s just fun stuff!
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
1:41 pm
Its just a hunch, but is it still holding up that our Hawks have a losing record against +.500 teams this season thus far?
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
1:42 pm
Worldwide Clyde: “I salute the Hawks for playing hard with all these injuries but its hard to see them getting out the second round. I hope it happens but I will believe it when I see it.”
_______________________
Now that’s the cold hard reality of it, which in this case means history will remain relevant–and basically repeat itself.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
1:43 pm
Vulcan mind meld:
99% of playoff teams= +.500 wining record….
Hmmmmmmmmm
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
1:47 pm
northcycle: “The ultimate goal is to still make a strong showing in the playoffs.”
__________________
That right there is the problem with this city’s pro teams–and too many of its fans. Why is “a strong showing in the playoffs” the ULTIMATE goal?! Until that attitude–which permeates, the city, its teams, and the teams’ owners, coaches, players, and fans–changes, we’ll continue to be Losersville.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
1:48 pm
Is the game on FSS tonight? I looked on the television schedule and I didn’t see it. Is it playing on another channel?
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
1:51 pm
Doin’ Werk!
Sometimes when you’re done working hard … you have to
work a little harder. That’s what our Hawks did on Sunday in that 4th OT.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
1:53 pm
Big Lou: “Is the game on FSS tonight? I looked on the television schedule and I didn’t see it. Is it playing on another channel?”
__________________________
The game’s on SportsSouth, Big Lou. That’s the channel/network carrying the vast majority of the Hawks’ games this season.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
1:57 pm
“The game’s on SportsSouth, Big Lou. That’s the channel/network carrying the vast majority of the Hawks’ games this season.”
Yeah, I checked the channel and it says: Classic Football. Oh well, I guess I will find out at eight.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
1:58 pm
2-12 in the 2nd rd the last 3 yrs=.143 wining %,
Is that a strong showing? Perception is reality? I guess..
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
2:08 pm
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:51 pm
Complain one really good time about the past 45 years, that I’m assuming you’ve been alive, and been a Hawks fan like I have (at least for about 40 years of it). Then live in the present dude, not in the past – can’t change it no how.
I’m living in the reality of we lost Al, and we’re competing better than at anytime since the late 90’s in my opinion. Better than the 53-29 season when we were great against bad teams, and pretty bad against most good teams.
____________________
You recommend that I “live in the present dude”–then immediately begin referencing the team’s past. Hello?
You cannot ignore or give token acknowledgment to the the past 45 years. Those are the years that made this franchise what it is–a MAJOR contributor to the city’s unfortunate nickname of “Losersville.”
If and when the Hawks claim an NBA title, then and only then will the past no longer be completely and totally relevant to the team’s present and future.
Astro Joe
March 27th, 2012
2:08 pm
OB, winning a playoff series against a higher seeded team would suggest that maybe LD knew how to utilize his assets properly (or at least in a manner that would provide better results). I know the new stadanrd is tolose better, but if you focus on the last series we actually won 9which few do around here), then maybe LD actually had a clue after all.
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
2:13 pm
Big Lou: “Yeah, I checked the channel and it says: Classic Football. Oh well, I guess I will find out at eight.”
_______________
On my guide (DirecTV), which has been pretty reliable, it says “Hawks @ Bucks” at 8 p.m. today. The pregame show, in case you’d like to tune in to our “announcers,” is at 7:30 p.m.
Najeh Davenpoop
March 27th, 2012
2:16 pm
Bob Rathbun @BobRathbunTV Close
Hey Joe! Congrats on the well deserved Eastern Conf POW award. You are amazing. @TheJoeJohnson2
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:19 pm
dmb, at some point i said guys and gals get together here. i was just giving an example of what it used to be like from a guy from east tn. me, though i come to this liar’s table frequently, i havent been to a barber since i was about 17.
this is fun and light hearted and nothing serious to get your heart rate up about. forty what ever it is, i took up the banner in the fall of ‘57 to be a hawks fan. so it has been a long time in between. sorry if i lose count. still love bill bridges though he wasnt a winner, sweeeet lou is on my list, too along with jumping jack white from druid hills high school and went to see warmups just to see him dunk it in the alexander, all of them. so, i have been around the block and have no need for someone to “warn” me about what it is like being a hawks fan and that i am nor be too concerned there are many nba meccas without the trophy in their cabinets.
slimj, last year the heat couldnt win against the best before the playoffs then almost won it. being a little over .500 at the right time will give you a championship, slimj, the last time i counted, 16/28.
aj first of all the info from mc doesnt say it equates to how many losses for play time because that is an unknown as the replacement parts may be better than the originals and we found that out or at least formidable replacements. we dont know until they are tried and injuries forced the hand. in ld’s defense he has been creative. not to his defense there have been many indications that he had more on the bench than he was willing to play up to and many of us here were giving him free advice to take along those lines which have played out correctly. i see, the greats like pops do it by choice, other coaches may get lucky or maybe they learn over time to play and trust your eyes. why did ivan sit so long, why teague, why not more of zaza? on and on. to his cred he has gotten a lot from green and pargo and i hope there is more where that came from. but overall i give cred to ld and the guys for a pretty good ride thus far better than last year where wheels were falling off before the unpredictables took down the magic in the first, just two years after they were in the finals. not bad.
shame to northcyde! there i said it. 0-45!!!!!!!
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
2:24 pm
Piped Down!
Mr. Davenpoop is the one blog leader icon that has taught me not to fight with trolls and to listen, embrace and respect other’s opinion on the fan blog.
I appreciate that, because I have changed my views from old ones to new ones and have learned more about the intangibles of basketball, plays run, what a “top of the key” is, statistics relevance and not, etc.
I even learned from the troll that you don’t have to be a troll to get attention. No one, I believe comes here because they don’t have a life, or need attention. Well, 99% of us fit that mold. But, you can even learn from a FOOL, how not to be a FOOL. So, it’s all good!
Iconic people that have changed my perceptions, besides Mr. Davenpoop are:
Blu-Ray
Nortycyde
O’Brien
Grand-Daddy
Astro Joe
Sautee
World Wide Clyde
Brigadier Jerry
Ken Strickland
SlimJr
Grandmaster JeJe
SteveW
Kevin M
Melvin
Doc
Vava74
No particular order there, and, many others. Basically, it’s the bloggers who consistently use one handle. You know who they are, because they don’t have time for games and silliness. In essence, you know who is saying what and can follow them for years and they never let you dopwn with all the great opinions that are convincing.
Hands down, we have the best and most intelligent blog in the world. I’ve been to other sites – it’s not even close.
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:28 pm
slimj, this is not an ordinary injury and suspect it should get the same respect an acl or a tommy j surgery on the elbow gets as far as healing time and getting full range of motion and strength back. this one is about getting scarification to seal the pec back to the chest wall then to build it back up. i hope for maybe his future’s sake he is done for the year. some footballers get it but they are usually to down lineman or linebackers who need less function that al will need to be at his best. it is a very unusual injury and amazing that i think it was also one of the injuries that a gsw had, maybe kwayme from savannah, traded recently, to dump salary.
Astro Joe
March 27th, 2012
2:31 pm
doc, I think fans watch a player perform well during a stint and almost immediately say “he should get more time”. I think what we are seeing is the reason that player is one of ~400 NBA players. because that guy is really, really, really good. But what makes someone worthy of concistent time isn’t just being good, it is being consistent and it is also doing the “right things” as dictated by the coaching staff. I like Ivan and I tend to focus on his positives. But last week, I watched that guy make a series of mistakes that had me wondering if he had brought his briain to the arena that day. LD isn’t in the same atmosphere as Pop… but some bloggers seem to believe they are as (if not more) smart as LD. Sorry, but just because player D shows himself to be a legit NBA talent (top 400 player in the nation) doesn’t mean he is ready to become one of the top 250 players who are part of the normal rotation of their team. Even the dumbest head coach is in a better position to make that judgement than the smartest blogger.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
2:33 pm
doc, I’ll give ld a small amount of credit for getting over the hump and finally defeating Orlando head to head… But Im going to give much more credit to that Genius GM for Orlando who let go of a two huge tenacious 6′8″ perimeter defenders that literally shut down ISO and da gang 7 of 8 games before last season begun in Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus!
Matt Barnes owned ISO JOCK!
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
2:35 pm
doc, you wouldn’t know a compliment if it was labled: COMPLIMENT. I just appreciate your Barber Shop Analogy, because it was a perfect example. I also, appreciate the blog fellas allowing me to come here and chime in on your forum. I feel fortunate and blessed.
Let’s Go Hawks! Who is our next prey?
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
2:35 pm
Matt Barnes sticks too ISO like black stripes on a zebra! lol
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:39 pm
clyde bro now that you are bcak from rio baby. got a new t-shirt for your entrepreneurial spirit for all the upcoming playoff games at the phil something along the lines of …..
u of loserville
0-45!
ill buy the first one, of course if you would accept my humble bucks. my son still wears the “fire woody” with pride i bought from you. maybe at least two here that might try to outbid me though. heh heh
0-45!
sounds a lot better than go hawks! that silly guy used to sign off with eh?
0-45!
Rod from College Park
March 27th, 2012
2:39 pm
northcyde,
“Rod, those are his shooting % this year in Portland.
You act like the Jamal we saw in the Orlando series is the norm for him.”
That’s why it’s called a playoff series. It’s not one game, it numerous games. He was the best player in that series. In the Chicago series, he struggled, but so did the 20 million dollar man and everyone else on the team including the coach. Jamal stepped up for the Hawks in the playoffs while other players did not including all star players. That’s the bottom line. Who cares what his numbers are in Portland. We know what his numbers were here. Can Willie Green, Pargo, and Vlad match those numbers this year in the playoffs? We will see.
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:42 pm
yes baby dmb, just wanted to make sure you were always included in my thoughts and intentions. heh heh
durn degenerate gdad is jealous about now. yes, she probably likes a man fight.
slimj the word was the lakers got barnes to make the magic weaker not them stronger. someone has read “the art of war”.
0-45!
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
2:42 pm
I appreciate the new guy: DawgNole too! He is insightful and fun.
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:44 pm
dmb, thanks for the hug, been lonely here, ya know?
0-45!
doc
March 27th, 2012
2:54 pm
aj, yes to what you say but play time makes em smarter. negatives only stop the flow. it is behavioral and some managers get the negative across in a more positive way and find people excelling because of it while others see em quit because they havent taught them anything except what not to do stressing the negative and not as much as what to do and let them have some room to explore. it is also very hard to do jt in front of 36 k eyes or more each night what these players do and not get a little gun shy and why all of these guys are cut differently. ultimately i have nothing but respect though they all test patience if you want to see em break free of 0-45.
0-45!
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
2:59 pm
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
2:42 pm
I appreciate the new guy: DawgNole too!He is insightful and fun.
____________________
Hey, a shout-out from drmaryb. Now that oughta earn me some cred on here. Thanks.
I’m not new on the blog, actually; I’ve just become more active in recent months since retiring after a lifetime of work. Most of the exchanges are enthusiastic and fun, and I’m grateful for that. It’s the mean-spirited, thinly veiled potshots that make my hair stand up. Of course, if it weren’t for those, I probably wouldn’t be on here as much.
Najeh Davenpoop
March 27th, 2012
3:03 pm
“Even the dumbest head coach is in a better position to make that judgement than the smartest blogger.”
Being in a better position to make a judgment doesn’t guarantee that they will actually make a better judgment.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
3:03 pm
Hey DawgNole, congratulations on your retirement Sir!
As Spock says on StarTrek: Live Long and Prosper!
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
3:07 pm
“On my guide (DirecTV), which has been pretty reliable, it says “Hawks @ Bucks” at 8 p.m. today. The pregame show, in case you’d like to tune in to our “announcers,” is at 7:30 p.m.”
*Sighs*
I got ‘ole reliable’ Comcast.
doc
March 27th, 2012
3:07 pm
yeah dmb i like him a lot too and learned a lot from him. just today:
you can’t write clearly, your research is flawed, and you don’t want to hear the relevant facts (no championship in 45 years) repeated, so you resort to insults? he forgot i cant spell.
yeah, i think i already knew all that. and i am really pretty light hearted for example…
i do numbers well….
0-45! heh heh
good day dawgnole. like you a lot as you are truly a contemporary long suffering hawks fan passing every test. shoot you are great, you even like tech most weeks of the year. after hershel, i softened on that one pretty hard when grandfather played for heisman at tech and in the 222-0 game and came close to being nole myself after high school at the school that later delivered chipper and now a great lineman to cmr, but ended up elsewhere or probably a drunk somewhere on the coast of fl.
be well.
doc
March 27th, 2012
3:09 pm
sorry for the run on sentence. heh heh
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
3:09 pm
Hey that mega million power ball is up to 336 large..Thats MILLIONS people..Tonight somebody is cashing in!
Guess I better run out and pickup 1 lucky ticket..If i aint blogging tomorrow, means I hit the big one and headed out to Bimini on a 100 footer with 3 Brazilian babes!!!!!!!!!! Yahoooo!
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
3:10 pm
“But, you can even learn from a FOOL, how not to be a FOOL. So, it’s all good!” drmaryb
My mom taught me that when I was younger all the time. It really did help me laugh at abrasive individuals.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:11 pm
DawgNole! Ha Ha! With that sneaky handle, I figured you must have two kids: one went to UGA and, the other FSU. Er go …. Dawgs and Seminoles. Or, you and your wife. Anyway, I’ve had fun wondering.
What a fun way to spend retirement. I work only MWF & alternate S. It’s good to be the boss lady! LOL
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
3:14 pm
Guess I better run out and pickup 1 lucky ticket..If i aint blogging tomorrow, means I hit the big one and headed out to Bimini on a 100 footer with 3 Brazilian babes!!!!!!!!!! Yahoooo!” Slimjr
I like your tastes in women. Just make sure you ’strap that helmet before you drive’. Brazil is the second largest country of AIDS. Just like the foreign food, you got to be careful with the exotic females.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
3:17 pm
“Being in a better position to make a judgment doesn’t guarantee that they will actually make a better judgment.” Najeh
Preach!
Good example: George Bush.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
3:18 pm
Thanks Big Lou!
BTW whose # one? USA?
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
3:18 pm
“Long suffering Hawks fan” is right, doc. And yes, I always pull for Tech except in the “big 2″ (against UGA & FSU).
0-45. 222-0. Just numbers. Hopefully the former will become irrelevant in our lifetime.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
3:19 pm
Bush Brain= Dick Cyborg Cheney
Astro Joe
March 27th, 2012
3:23 pm
Yep, no doubt about Najeh. But, of course, that isn’t the point. None of us is all-knowing and incapable of bring wrong. Regardless of the volume of information at our disposal. But again, that doesn’t change my opinion that LD is worhty of credit for keeping this team at the most recent standard level of achievement.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
3:23 pm
WorldWide better have taken your advise Big Lou! He just got back from RIO!
DawgNole
March 27th, 2012
3:23 pm
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:11 pm
DawgNole! Ha Ha! With that sneaky handle, I figured you must have two kids: one went to UGA and, the other FSU. Er go …. Dawgs and Seminoles. Or, you and your wife. Anyway, I’ve had fun wondering.
__________________
Spent most of first 18 years in Tallahassee (FSU), where father was head of history dept. Moved to Athens in ‘68 (the year the Hawks arrived in ATL) when he took a research job at UGA. I’m a Nole first and a Dawg second, while my wife of 41 years is a Dawg first and a Nole second. Fortunately for our marriage, the two seldom play each other.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 27th, 2012
3:26 pm
Biggie Lou, honey buns … I so miss talking dead with you. I’ve been surfing the TV Guide for marathons or re-runs from last season. I never saw season one, I may purchase the DVD collection if, there is one or, go to the website and see if I can watch season one online one day soon.
That barn burner was neat hugh? Not a bad scoop, but there was just too many walkers for that to work. It was fitting that Andrea, (the civil rights attorney) had to run through the woods to get out! She was perfect for that role, the other ladies were too soft for that kind of action.
Great writing by those guys! The best TV Drama I ever saw, who woulda’ thunk I’d love something so scary?