Atlanta Hawks: How much have injuries really hurt them?
Jerry Stackhouse figures he’s probably been on a team that’s had as many injuries, though he can’t recall exactly. “Over 17 years I’m sure it happened somewhere along the line,” he said, chuckling.
But Stackhouse says the bad run of injuries isn’t really a topic of conversation among Hawks players: “We say there’s more room over there on the bench. We aren’t all on top of each other. But other than that, we don’t really talk about it. This is the NBA.”
That’s what you expect players to say, especially with a team that’s as veteran as the Hawks. Injuries are a part of the game, no one feels sorry for a team that’s riddled with them and so the Hawks have to keep on grinding. They are professional athletes, supremely confident, and so they believe they can win anyway.
The circumstances are different for coach Larry Drew and general manager Rick Sund. Ask them to evaluate the team so far and they are sure to talk about the injuries. It makes sense because neither Sund nor Drew has a guaranteed contract for next season (Drew has an option) and their future with the team could depend how this season plays out. Can’t blame Drew and Sund for making sure the team’s injuries are part of that evaluation, like any of us would make sure our bosses know when circumstances outside of our control impacted our job performance. The process is just a lot more public for Drew and Sund.
Both men are always sure to note they are not making excuses, but of course that’s how some will take it. Most people don’t want to hear about how injuries contribute to a team not meeting expectations. That’s especially true for fans, who expect their team to win anyway.
My take has been that the Hawks have been pretty good in spite of the injuries especially with their intangibles. I think there’s little question the Hawks have shown some real growth in that area, from the 101-point beatdown from Orlando, to showing more moxie in the last year’s playoffs, to staying competitive this year in spite of the injuries. That’s not to give them too much credit for competing under trying circumstance but I don’t have to tell my blog people that’s not always been a given.
It’s difficult to objectively evaluate a team that’s had this many injuries. How much have the Hawks really been impacted by injuries? Do they have it any worse than the other teams in their peer group? I tried to find out in a way that goes beyond the “x amount of players have missed y amount of games,” an exercise that brings to mind that the Hawks included Pape Sy (never forget) in that count two seasons ago.
Inspired by a Basketball Proespectus blog post by Kevin Pelton last season, my goal was to quantify Atlanta’s injuries in a meaningful way and compare them to the other playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. (Pelton, ambitious as ever, evaluated all 30 teams in his analysis.)
Like Pelton, I looked at the games missed by players and also multiplied that number by their average minutes. To further measure the quality of players lost to injury, Pelton used WARP, a linear-weights formula he developed. I went with Basketball Reference creator Justin Kubato’s Win Shares to make a “Win Shares lost” projection based on average minutes played multiplied by win-shares per minute and games missed.
(Follow the links if you are interested in the details of how WARP and WS are calculated.)
“Win shares lost” is not the same thins as saying the injured players’ teams would win that many more games if they’d never missed time because obviously their minutes were replaced by players of varying quality. But it gives a sense of the quality of the players that have missed games with injuries. Also, this analysis doesn’t take into account players who remain in the lineup but are less effective because of injuries, the impact of having multiple injuries at one position, etc.
(Chart includes games through last Thursday.)
| Team | Players | Games | Minutes+ | Win shares^ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 8 | 107 | 20,287 | 5.54 |
| Bulls | 7 | 78 | 14,531 | 5.678 |
| Heat | 5 | 29 | 4,066 | 2.82 |
| Magic | 6 | 29 | 4,396 | 1.30 |
| Sixers | 5 | 38 | 4,788 | 3.54 |
| Pacers | 3 | 49 | 3,459 | 1.34 |
| Celtics | 10 | 84 | 21,386 | 3.76 |
| Knicks# | 6 | 50 | 8,395 | 2.55 |
+ Minutes per game when healthy * games missed
^ Win shares per minute * minutes per game when healthy * games missed
# Does not include Baron Davis’ injury before he played for the team.
You can see the Hawks have lost more games to injuries than any other East playoff team. They’ve also “lost” among the most minutes and win shares to injuries. Using these criteria, you could argue that only the Bulls have been hurt more by injuries than Atlanta among East playoff teams, which makes Chicago’s season even more impressive.
Again, these numbers can’t measure all of the factors that determine how much injuries affect these teams. But I think this analysis makes it clear the Hawks’ injuries have been significant in relation to their peer group.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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316 comments Add your comment
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:06 pm
I mean last I checked, isn’t Denver pounding on the Bulls tonite – the same team we lost to in Denver by 1 point, and only lost on a blown layup? (Chicago may be ahead by now, haven’t checked in a while, just sayin’…).
High-sider
March 26th, 2012
10:07 pm
Knicks is/are 7-1 with Woody as head coach. Knicks beat Bucks, 89-80.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 26th, 2012
10:08 pm
“A shame that we’re still talking about the strategy for building a champion 45 years after this “project” began.”
DawNole, your quote is a “CLASSIC” dude.. It is beyond belief that this franchise has not even been to a freaking Eastern Conference Final???????????????? Forget Championship? WOW!
At least others here want to win a ring and aren’t just grateful we have been beating up on wack teams like we do every year.
Yo Worldwide Clyde, are you distributing FIRE WOODY shirts Friday? I’d like 1
Slimjr
March 26th, 2012
10:08 pm
You forgot one other quote SteveW: ITS A TRAP!
Knicks WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7-1 under Woody! Carmelo went for 28/12.. 12-12 from the line!
Go Woody! Huge Win!
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:08 pm
If we would have lost like the Heat have on back to back nites, there would be panic and gore all over this blog…
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 26th, 2012
10:09 pm
Honestly we would be assaulted in the West.
Denver Utah Dal SAS LAC LAL PTL OKC MIN. Can’t even beat Houston
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:09 pm
Slim – Great! That is hilarious.
Slimjr
March 26th, 2012
10:13 pm
With Amare’ gone, I believe the Hawks should pullout a win against the Knicks Friday night..4th quarter execution will make a difference..Big game for both ball clubs!
TMACfan
March 26th, 2012
10:16 pm
We are back at 6th in the standings… dang
DawgNole
March 26th, 2012
10:21 pm
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:05 pm
One thing it seems to me on this blog – No matter if the Hawks won the NBA Championship this season, some would still complain.
______________________
Why don’t you wait to see the reaction if and when the team actually does win a championship, instead of predicting what you think the negative posters will do in light of said championship? Hell, I’m a negative poster because it’s been 45 years–the entire Hawks’ existence in ATL–without a single title. But last night, at the end of 4 OTs, I was fawning over them with everyone else. Happy to admit it. I want ‘em to win–really, really bad–but after nearly a half-century of futility, they’ve got a lot to prove before I’ll blindly predict anything beyond a first-round series win. Or before I’ll quit giving ‘em hell when they struggle against any team.
DawgNole
March 26th, 2012
10:26 pm
Grandmaster JeJe (GM): “At least others here want to win a ring and aren’t just grateful we have been beating up on wack teams like we do every year.”
__________________________
Yeah, there are a few of us on here, thank goodness, although we’re usually drowned out by the indignant (and ignorant) ones who just can’t comprehend our “negativity” when we take the team to task for doing dumb things.
drmaryb.[*_*].
March 26th, 2012
10:28 pm
Backed Out!
“drmary, how long do you believe Amare’ will be out with this bulging disk? Is it a possible season ending injury?”-SlimJr-
_______
You see Baron Davis has been more out than for almost two seasons now. Since this is a re-occurring injury for Amare and, from what you reported he was out three months last season? It may be longer than three months this time, because each future episode is progressively worse as the disc bulge typically will not re-absorb it’s nuclear material.
The stages of degenerative disc disease is wide from:
Bulge
Rupture
Prolapse
Extruded
Sequestered
Dessicated
Rudimentary
Obliterated
IDK if Amare’ has gone from bulging to ruptured. If it is bulging into the spinal canal and, causing stenosis (narrowing of the canal space), I would personally opt for a surgical procedure. Shut Amare’ down.
doc
March 26th, 2012
10:29 pm
gm jeje, i know it is part of your grand scheme to under mine the hawks accomplishments only the discerning eye wees clearly that there are only two teams in the east that could hold up in the west based on their play thus far this year, the bulls and the pacers, the only teams with less than 5 losses in head to head competition. fortunately, none of the teams in the east have to worry about the west until the very end and hope they have worn themselves out by then. so, what is your point if it is true for all teams in the east really except the bulls?
doc
March 26th, 2012
10:49 pm
i dont think the team is who should be taken to task over the trips to the finals, which for the record hasnt occurred since 69-70 season, but the owners. who the players get beside them is not theirs to decide just to give the effort going forward and thus far it has been beyond expectation.
i get how pitiful the basg is and have been recorded many times about how damaging they have been to the community as a whole. that is a separate story to the effort put forth as they “struggle” to win. there is a lot of struggling going on as well in other first rate cities.
i hope okc continues to break the trend against the big advertising cities getting passes, maybe durant is enough to get them over the hump.
MC can you rescue a bite of the blog monster?
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
10:51 pm
Dawgnole – I want a Championship if you’ve followed this blog for any length of time at all, you know that. So ok, you complain about the past. Why not wait until we’re bounced from the playoffs to complain.
Complain one really good time about the past 45 years, that I’m assuming you’ve been alive, and been a Hawks fan like I have (at least for about 40 years of it). Then live in the present dude, not in the past – can’t change it no how.
I’m living in the reality of we lost Al, and we’re competing better than at anytime since the late 90’s in my opinion. Better than the 53-29 season when we were great against bad teams, and pretty bad against most good teams.
‘Nique never won a championship. But i still liked the ‘Nique years. Same with Mutombo, Smith and Blaylock.
But reading the same bloggers month after month predicting blowout after blowout, which rarely comes to pass, and saying 46 years and no ECF blah, blah blah – Just get it out 1 good time – Can’t change the past – no need to be bitter about it – let’s just see if they can win it this season or next.
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
11:01 pm
The blogmonster is eating salient parts of my post tonite
SteveW
March 26th, 2012
11:04 pm
Dawgnole – I guess we can both agree we want a Championship in the ATL! With the Hawks!
The rest is just repeating we haven’t been to a ECF in 46 years dozens of different ways, dozens of different times, but with the same result.
So I just enjoy the team, and root for a Championship – the rest is out of my hands. And yours to.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 26th, 2012
11:20 pm
SteveW
“The rest is just repeating we haven’t been to a ECF in 46 years dozens of different ways, dozens of different times, but with the same result.”
The problem is people here think we should be satisfied about this team, EVEN THOUGH OUR FRONT OFFICE REFUSES TO TAKE THAT NEXT STEP
I have never ever ever ever ever seen a team keep the same core 5 years and not contend.
If it doesn’t fit you MUST acquit
cdog
March 26th, 2012
11:27 pm
easy schedule helped but team still needs improvement if they are going to win a playoff game or series.thats why players such as a quality center should have been added.rick sund has done nothing to improve the team.it’s been 5 years and the hawks have gone backward and are still struggling, nuff said, long way to go to compete with the playoff teams.
Hawks Blog Legend Worldwide Clyde
March 26th, 2012
11:30 pm
SlimJr = The Ghost of Samuel
Big Lou
March 26th, 2012
11:30 pm
“ETHER!!!! Damn. Plus you are ARTICULATE.” JeJe
I’m strangely turned on by the blooming bromance between you two.
Big Lou
March 26th, 2012
11:34 pm
“Bulge
Rupture
Prolapse
Extruded
Sequestered
Dessicated
Rudimentary
Obliterated” drmaryb
Sounds like one heck of a night for my dangling, best friend–the one with the mind of its own.
Big Lou
March 26th, 2012
11:37 pm
“Knicks WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7-1 under Woody! Carmelo went for 28/12.. 12-12 from the line!
Go Woody! Huge Win!”
Slimjr
You’re turning into that 76ers troll. Nobody cares about the Knicks on a HAWKS blog–only Woody sympathizers do.
Grandmaster JeJe (GM)
March 26th, 2012
11:40 pm
Big Lou
March 26th, 2012
11:30 pm
“ETHER!!!! Damn. Plus you are ARTICULATE.” JeJe
I’m strangely turned on by the blooming bromance between you two.
LinkReport this comment
It’s rare to find Hawks fans who actually want to win rings. Most people here are raving about a winning streak against mostly the worst teams in the league. Others see the big picture.
It’s also nice to see some people here actually know how to write and take the time to articulately convey a point rather than spewing out garbage a 2nd grader could’ve written more properly.
Grandad
March 26th, 2012
11:41 pm
Mary Ellen & doc
Yawl make sure and don`t make any typos when dicussing
Amare`s bulging diks.
Grandad
March 26th, 2012
11:44 pm
dang`it … *[disk] … there I went and did it … * not [diks]
I`m sorry `bout that – I should know better.
Grandad
March 26th, 2012
11:47 pm
*disk
Slimjr
March 26th, 2012
11:49 pm
Sounds like Big Lou missed his callin…You ever tried standup?
Slimjr
March 26th, 2012
11:51 pm
Big Lou speaks for nobodys….Drum roll please…….
doc
March 26th, 2012
11:51 pm
big lou and granddad very funny observations, from bromancing the rings to bulging diks.
Slimjr
March 26th, 2012
11:52 pm
World Wide= what you talkin bout Willis?
doc
March 26th, 2012
11:52 pm
umm try disc.
doc
March 26th, 2012
11:55 pm
as an older guy i dread going from dessicated to rudimentary to obliterated. nothing left except excinerated.
Big Lou
March 26th, 2012
11:57 pm
“Sounds like Big Lou missed his callin…You ever tried standup?”
Your sarcasm only amplifies my need to lighten up this blog–too much seriousness. Everybody needs a hug.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
12:00 am
“It’s rare to find Hawks fans who actually want to win rings. Most people here are raving about a winning streak against mostly the worst teams in the league. Others see the big picture.
It’s also nice to see some people here actually know how to write and take the time to articulately convey a point rather than spewing out garbage a 2nd grader could’ve written more properly.” JeJe
Hey man, why do you think I was aroused? I agree with you. In all serious, I’m just giving friendly banter. We agree on most things; I’m just more humorous with it.
Najeh Davenpoop
March 27th, 2012
12:10 am
“Maybe if a native Atlantan or someone who actually cares about the city were to buy the Hawks things would be different”
The sad thing is that Gearon is a native Atlantan who cares about the city. Things are not different because caring about the city does not = managing the team properly.
Najeh Davenpoop
March 27th, 2012
12:11 am
“No matter if the Hawks won the NBA Championship this season, some would still complain.”
Haha I wouldn’t go that far. To be honest if they make the ECF I think about 90% of the negativity would stop, at least for about a year. Until they do that, though, some amount of negativity is justified.
Michael Cunningham
March 27th, 2012
12:12 am
@SteveW: “MC – Any word on Al? According to the initial prognosis – he may be back in less than a month. 3 months minimum from the Jan. 19th (I think) surgery.”
he’s out for the regular season, remote possibility to return for playoffs. i’m thinking he’s done.
Big Lou
March 27th, 2012
12:15 am
“he’s out for the regular season, remote possibility to return for playoffs. i’m thinking he’s done.” MC
Another year of elimination within the first couple rounds of the playoffs. Womderful…
Michael Cunningham
March 27th, 2012
12:16 am
@doc: “MC can you rescue a bite of the blog monster?”
didn’t see any posts by you in the filter.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
12:19 am
9/7(39-games) in playoff competition was not going to get them out of the 2nd round anyway….Comp too good..
HawkEye
March 27th, 2012
12:21 am
Najeh, I’d rather call it cautious optimism than negativity and I completely understand that stance. That being said, it is great to know that when these Hawks show flashes of brilliance (except Collins lol) like last night that even negative (cautiously optimistic) minded bloggers can give this team the props they deserve.
Slimjr
March 27th, 2012
12:24 am
HawkEye= A mind of Reason!
HawkEye
March 27th, 2012
12:48 am
Furthermore, I understand the 45 years without a conference finals appearance referenced on this blog frequently. Haven’t been around that long, but it is a part of the Hawks history and you can’t avoid history. If the Hawks do happen to make it to the Conference Finals and/or NBA Finals, that will become a part of their history and it will be worth mentioning, but I don’t think that the cautious optimism will completely end until the Hawks win it all.
That said, I’m looking forward to the playoffs. I think that DRose being injured could be bigger than most are making it. It is mandatory that they rest him and make sure he’s as close to 100% for the playoff run or else the Bulls might not make it out the East.
Also, the Thunder will be a load for anyone out West. I think it is Finals or bust for them.
doc
March 27th, 2012
12:49 am
thanks for checking but it gave me the dreaded duplicate for a long post. once there there doesnt seem to be any escape.
Rusty
March 27th, 2012
1:32 am
Watched MB trying to play defense in the Milwaukee game.we gave 2 first rounders to get rid of him.do any of you bloggers think we could get 2 first rounders for KH. This also all on LD. Do you think JT or any of the bench players would open their mouth & dare say anything against him,they would never get off the bench again. I would love to really heat what JT or JC2 would say.I would really think he is not very happy playing under LD.grandad thinks that LD is a good coach & runs good plays ,the only thing I see is one on one basketball. Under woody in his last year we had a much better record than LD had last year. LD has a poor record on who he plays,he cost us a victory against Chicago last year & has cost us victories at least 6 games this year. I really don’t think he makes smart decisions ,really there are to many to list & everybody knows what they are.
Rusty
March 27th, 2012
1:43 am
I really think Sund has never accomplished much in his career but have to give him credit on creating a decent bench on the cheap,now if LD used the bench like he should we would be better off. I give JS & JTa lot of credit.JJ has played better but is inconsistent & usually disappears against the better teams.
vava74
March 27th, 2012
2:21 am
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2012/03/26/news-notes-and-rumors-from-around-the-nba-march-26-2012/
Apart from JJ’s weekly player honors, some recognition of the Hawks’ OT increased efficiency.
vava74
March 27th, 2012
2:25 am
From previous blog:
Rod,
Tell me something:
Apart from the first round where we faced a team (ORL) we had already beaten in the regular season without Jamal last year AND that we beat again this year, making it now – as you well said a couple of days ago, a potentially good match up for us – where did Jamal’s offensive prowess, and that will be sore rely missed, help us against the Bulls?
You said that we will lose in the first round because we will miss Jamal BUT at the same time said that the best possible opponent for us would the very same team (ORL) which you use as the measuring stick of Jamal’s playoff worth?
I say that Jamal’s playoff worth was what he showed against CHI.
Streaky guy who had one good game and another decent/good in six whilst being thoroughly beaten on D by every guy he faced from Rose to CJ to Brewer to Bogans to Korver.
Jamal was no more the focus of the CHI defense than were Al, Josh and JJ. That’s what CHI does to win games. THEY PLAY D.
And that is what we are now playing even when we have sub-par talent on the floor.
That is how we beat CHI, MIA and OKC this season. With D not by trying to outscore those teams.
CHI and MIA rely heavily on D (that’s why they continue to win even when they miss key players) and none of these two ball clubs give substantial minutes to completely one dimensional players.
Yes, guys like Jamal, JR Smith, Louis Williams can be effective and important but you cannot rely on them.
Reliance on D is paramount for playoff success, then you need brilliant coaching to use offense-only players in the right usage levels.
By the way – Jamal seems headed yet again to an early holiday and playoffs on TV and got NO interest from major players at the deadline even with POR shopping him hard.
If we fall on the first round it will not prove anything about us missing or not missing Jamal.
If that happens the main reason will probably be Josh eventual regression / re-emergence of his immaturity.
vava74
March 27th, 2012
2:40 am
And, we will obviously miss Al as another eventual factor hindering our ability to get past round 1.
Not that I consider Al THE FUNDAMENTAL player in this roster that many do (did?).
For me it’s clear that Al should be assigned a #4 role in this team’s offense behind Josh, JJ and Teague, but it absurd to think that we will not miss him in the playoffs.
Al is a disciplined defender – albeit unable to defend lengthier players in the post effectively – and a pretty good rebounder (much better than many players receiving accolades around here like for instance Nené) and we will be certainly shorthanded on the rebounding department in the playoffs.