Atlanta Hawks: What should they do now (poll)?

Al Horford had surgery today and let’s go ahead and say he’s out for the year, regular season and playoffs.

I don’t know that for sure, of course, but out three to four months on Jan. 17 sure sounds that way. If he comes back at the end of the regular season, how long before he’s in game shape and ready to contribute? Could he really make a difference in the playoffs under those circumstances? Is it even worth it at that point for the Hawks to send out their All-Star center with four years left on his $60 million extension?

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The Hawks might have been able to make a good run at the East finals with Horford. It would have been interesting to see if they could do it, at least. Without Horford, the focus has shifted to whether the Hawks still can make the playoffs without him (yes) or win a playoff round if they manage to make the postseason (unlikely).

But shouldn’t the thinking go beyond that that now for the Hawks? Isn’t looking to the future the prudent thing to do once you accept that a) Horford isn’t coming back or b) he won’t have much if an impact if he does or c) even if he does come back healthy this team has maxed out?

When you look ahead, you see that the Hawks have roughly $61 million committed to six players next season. If it stays that way, Atlanta will have no cap space and would face the possibility of adding free agents around Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Jeff Teague with the mid-level, bi-annual and minimum-salary exceptions (or a higher salary through a sign-and-trade). With about $9 million of wiggle room beneath the luxury-tax line, could the Hawks build a true contender that way?

I suppose the Hawks could try to add a big now, either a stop-gap for this season or a legit center both for this postseason and next season. The free-agent pickings are slim but once Kirk Hinrich is healthy it’s possible his expiring $8.1 million contract could be flipped for a center. That most likely would mean the Hawks would have to take on more salary next season while keeping that $9 million tax wiggle room in mind.

Larry Drew, for one, is proceeding as if Atlanta will stick with the status quo.

“That’s the approach I have to take,” he said. “I don’t want to get my hopes built up about something possibly happening and it doesn’t happen. I would rather approach it as nothing is going to happen, this is the team and we will go out and do the best we can.”

If they best the Hawks can do with this roster still leaves them out of the playoffs, that would be disappointing for them considering their high hopes this season. But it may not be the worst thing in the world considering they could have a high pick in what’s supposed to be a deep draft. That player (or the pick) could be a valuable asset down the line, either as a trade chip or a promising young (and cheap) rotation player.

It’s difficult for me to guess how Hawks management would react to things coming to an end in that way for the core. The whole point of keeping this team together was to make a “make or break” run at it this year. The Hawks made the team deeper by adding minimum-salaried veterans but now the master plan has been undermined by losing one of their key cogs to a freak injury.

That’s bad luck, but does that bad luck mean the Hawks keep the core together another year for another run? If they decide this group has run its course, anyway, do they make another run at Dwight Howard even if he still doesn’t include them on his list? If they can’t get Howard, do they trade away a core piece and start building toward acquiring a different superstar or better complementary pieces around whichever part of the core is left behind after trades?

I don’t know what they should do. You tell me, blog people.

Notes

• Tracy McGrady (back) participated in a lengthy workout after practice along with Jerry Stackhouse and Jannero Pargo and looked pretty good. McGrady said he hasn’t consulted the team’s staff while dealing with his ailments: “I haven’t talked to them about it, but I feel pretty good where I’m at. I’m putting in extra work to see where I’m at coming off the back injury. I’m feeling pretty solid. I feel good, legs feel good. I’m ready to go. I wish they’d release me. And I don’t mean from the team.”
• Drew said the starting lineup could be fluid depending on opponent: “That could happen. We are looking at matchups. There are going to be some teams we play against where we are going to have to tweak it a little bit and then as the game progresses make a decision as far as other matchups. We’ve had some situations where started the game and haven’t felt totally comfortable with [matchups] but guys have played through it.”
• When Horford went down, Drew said he was concerned about the Hawks feeling sorry for themselves and letting up. That hasn’t happened: “One good thing that has happened was even when that happened, some of these veteran guys have spoken out and said these are the type of situations that show what a team is made of. These guys have been in this thing a while and they’ve experienced a lot of different situations. They are passing it on.”
• Josh on how the Hawks can keep winning without Al: “I think if Ivan keeps giving the energy and effort he’s giving off the bench and the physicality I think we will be good in the frontcourt. As long as we do that and the guards do that and play tough and make it hard to get into the paint and us being a force, we will be OK. We have to have an identity of being a scrappy team.”
• Josh on his recent tear: “I’m just being aggressive and confident but, in the same breath, playing within the offense and not forcing anything. I’m getting shots in the offense, getting open looks, and guys are finding me. Everyone is being unselfish.”
• Josh is now up to 42 percent on long 2s this season after shooting 39 percent last season. The league average from that range this year is 38 percent. “It’s really muscle memory, not fading on my jump shot and standing in there,” he said. “Whenever I do that I feel good about making shots.”
• Josh on the his slimmer frame: “I feel a little bit more explosive. I might have been winded after all these game last year.” He said it doesn’t help with his jumper, though: “There’s a lot of chubby guys out here that are strokers.”
• T-Mac on his talks with Josh: “I’ve been in his ear and telling him how he can be more effective on the basketball court. He’s one of the guys that has a high basketball IQ. He’s a good passer, he’s very athletic. At his position there are not too many guys like that. The thing about him is he has to really see the flow of the game and know what we need from him and that’s be aggressive and get to the free-throw line. That’s how you get your [scoring] average up in this league. A guy with his ability, he should shoot 8 to 10 free throws per game. I think he’s taking notice.”
• The NBA released its annual GM survey, which allows fans a chance to see that basketball executives don’t always know as much as you might think. Or maybe they just don’t care enough to fill out those surveys. Probably better for fans who care to go with the latter explanation.

Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat