Al Horford had surgery today and let’s go ahead and say he’s out for the year, regular season and playoffs.
I don’t know that for sure, of course, but out three to four months on Jan. 17 sure sounds that way. If he comes back at the end of the regular season, how long before he’s in game shape and ready to contribute? Could he really make a difference in the playoffs under those circumstances? Is it even worth it at that point for the Hawks to send out their All-Star center with four years left on his $60 million extension?
The Hawks might have been able to make a good run at the East finals with Horford. It would have been interesting to see if they could do it, at least. Without Horford, the focus has shifted to whether the Hawks still can make the playoffs without him (yes) or win a playoff round if they manage to make the postseason (unlikely).
But shouldn’t the thinking go beyond that that now for the Hawks? Isn’t looking to the future the prudent thing to do once you accept that a) Horford isn’t coming back or b) he won’t have much if an impact if he does or c) even if he does come back healthy this team has maxed out?
When you look ahead, you see that the Hawks have roughly $61 million committed to six players next season. If it stays that way, Atlanta will have no cap space and would face the possibility of adding free agents around Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Jeff Teague with the mid-level, bi-annual and minimum-salary exceptions (or a higher salary through a sign-and-trade). With about $9 million of wiggle room beneath the luxury-tax line, could the Hawks build a true contender that way?
I suppose the Hawks could try to add a big now, either a stop-gap for this season or a legit center both for this postseason and next season. The free-agent pickings are slim but once Kirk Hinrich is healthy it’s possible his expiring $8.1 million contract could be flipped for a center. That most likely would mean the Hawks would have to take on more salary next season while keeping that $9 million tax wiggle room in mind.
Larry Drew, for one, is proceeding as if Atlanta will stick with the status quo.
“That’s the approach I have to take,” he said. “I don’t want to get my hopes built up about something possibly happening and it doesn’t happen. I would rather approach it as nothing is going to happen, this is the team and we will go out and do the best we can.”
If they best the Hawks can do with this roster still leaves them out of the playoffs, that would be disappointing for them considering their high hopes this season. But it may not be the worst thing in the world considering they could have a high pick in what’s supposed to be a deep draft. That player (or the pick) could be a valuable asset down the line, either as a trade chip or a promising young (and cheap) rotation player.
It’s difficult for me to guess how Hawks management would react to things coming to an end in that way for the core. The whole point of keeping this team together was to make a “make or break” run at it this year. The Hawks made the team deeper by adding minimum-salaried veterans but now the master plan has been undermined by losing one of their key cogs to a freak injury.
That’s bad luck, but does that bad luck mean the Hawks keep the core together another year for another run? If they decide this group has run its course, anyway, do they make another run at Dwight Howard even if he still doesn’t include them on his list? If they can’t get Howard, do they trade away a core piece and start building toward acquiring a different superstar or better complementary pieces around whichever part of the core is left behind after trades?
I don’t know what they should do. You tell me, blog people.
Notes
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
277 comments Add your comment
Astro Joe
January 18th, 2012
10:47 am
Assuming the old head can run up and down the court for at least 20 minutes AND in consecutive games without passing out.
just SHOOT me
January 18th, 2012
10:49 am
Is anyone familiar with the Chinese standout Will Lavigne who plays in the Oklahoma D-League? He’s been impressing quite a few folks. He’s at least worth a look.
Ra'mon
January 18th, 2012
10:54 am
Doesn’t it seem like with the loss of Jamal, and now Horford, Josh and Joe are playing at a higher level, because they’re able to have more touches to be in better rhythm?
Ra'mon
January 18th, 2012
10:58 am
You know to be serious, if in shape, Rasheed Wallace would be a huge addition to the Hawks. His stretch game, would go great with Josh and Joe posting up, and Teague penetrating. And Wallace is one of the most underrated defending bigs in the history of the league. He’s an anchor on the block. I would say cut Sloan, and offer him a spot.on the roster. They can use Jerry Stackhouse to recruit him, lol.
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
10:59 am
“vava74
January 18th, 2012
6:30 am
From previous blog:
KevinM,
Stop being an @ss.”
You take it personally when I had no clue what you are referencing…..mistype or not, all I asked was why was Collins starting? Is it your agenda to tell others how to think? Get over yourself.
I will say it again; if it weren’t for Sund, Collins would not be in the league. Is that good for him? Yes, it is. Does he do things good?
Every once in a while….you can admire that, but being part of the best players in basketball, shouldn’t you do good things every once in a while?
Did he just shut down Minnesota on his own? No, and neither did Ivan.
LD put him in there to see if he could do anything about him driving the lane…..obviously it worked. Again, I asked why was Collins starting against Toronto? All you had to say was because of his performance the previous night. You act like it is obvious and everyone is watching every minute of these games.
A simple response to a question works better than your approach, but you do as you see fit.
I still say the Hawks should have a better option in the middle to make a run, but if you think Collins is enough, good for you.
Collins does very little to build enthusiasm for an ECF run.
Melvin
January 18th, 2012
11:03 am
HoosierHawk,
Why should the Hawks (or any team trying to be competitive) help the Mavs land Howard? The Mavs will have to amnesty either Marion or Haywood and renounce some of their free agents if they want to land Howard and Deron Williams this summer. So why not let them gut their team to land two superstar players and sign their other guys to reasonable contracts. Besides, Haywood contract is back loaded so the Hawks probably don’t want any parts of that considering that JJ contract increases every year along with possibly resigning Josh.
Rufus1
January 18th, 2012
11:05 am
-Andrew Bogut
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick 1 in 2005 by Bucks
Best Case: Brad Miller Meets Vlade Divac
Worst Case: Chris Kaman
That sounds like HOF to me…
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
11:06 am
How about no more former Hawks coming back? That makes the most sense.
You bring Rasheed in here, you basically accept the concept of not knowing if/when he will decide to play.
I’ll admit, I wanted to bring Shaq in here, especially if it was for a Marvin swap and $5M off the cap. I thought he was in shape enough in Cleveland to want to make another push. Based on the results, it would have been money not worth spending, but since we are throwing it away on Marvin, it would have been cheaper to bring him here no matter the results.
Point is, if you aren’t motivated to get it done in Boston, you probably aren’t coming to Atlanta more motivated.
I’m still surprised T-Mac came here to join the bench. I still think he has something left, but that remains to be seen if he is together mentally.
Melvin
January 18th, 2012
11:10 am
If Diaw contract expiries at the end of this season (or next), I would definitely approve the Marvin for Diaw trade. At least it would help the Hawks get rid of Marvin 1 or possibly 2 seasons earlier. Besides, Diaw is a serviceable player although he’s overweight. Maybe we could have him workout with Josh or Collins in the offseason to shed some pounds…LOL
Ra'mon
January 18th, 2012
11:11 am
KevinM, what’s the difference in paying Sloan the minimum or paying Rasheed Wallace the minimum? When Kirk returns you will have three pgs on the roster, so what use is Sloan? In the playoffs Rasheed will play as much as you need him to. From now until then, its just him getting into shape. Easily right now, an out of shape Rasheed is still the best FA center.
vava74
January 18th, 2012
11:12 am
KevinM,
The comment about Collins starting was not the only comment about him that you posted.
There were several others before.
Collins starting is not a Collins’ related problem, it’s an LD related problem.
MattP
January 18th, 2012
11:16 am
Ra’mon,
Sloan is on Rookie Min and Wallace will be on Vet Min, that is the difference.
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
11:22 am
Ra’mon, Rasheed’s minimum and Sloan’s minimum are not the same. If you said Stack, then yes, they’re closer to the same, provided Rasheed would settle for the minimum. You think he has something left to help this team? He didn’t play last year and wasn’t in shape for Boston.
He sounds like AI to me..he wants his minutes and don’t fill the role we need you for. I say no thanks as we need a defensive presence in the paint, like a D12 or Chandler. That’s where my mindset is.
And when Kirk comes back, its probably Sloan that is leaving…could be Stack also. You have to see if Kirk is ready to contribute as well.
I’m okay with that.
Our problems are the contributions of Zaza and Marvin more than the minimum guys. I’m still asking if Collins is the best we can do? Obviously, it is.
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
11:29 am
Vava,
Agree, Collins starting is a problem. Does he do more than Marvin? Well, depends on what your expectations are…..
I want Joe and Josh to have more legitimate help that can handle more than 13mpg in the paint. Works against some teams, but not consistently enough.
LD doesn’t have enough quality talent to deal with at the present.
The Truth
January 18th, 2012
11:32 am
It’s possible that Sloan is still on the team because Kirk is gone after this season or part of an upcoming trade.
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 18th, 2012
11:34 am
“Doesn’t it seem like with the loss of Jamal and Horford, Josh and Joe are playing at a higher level, because they’re able to have more touches to be in better rhythm?
You know to be serious, if in shape, Rasheed Wallace would be a huge addition to the Hawks. His stretch game, would go great with Josh and Joe posting up, and Teague penetrating.”
———
Ram’on with all that analysis what does Horford bring? Basically we got a non ball hogging Jamal that can go 5 for 5 on some nights with few touches and that can rebound and defend SFs and some PFs. In Vlad Space Cade Radmanovic.
So that pisses me off that Horford said that Smith could play the 3 and move over for him and a center.
Knowing full well that if Smith could not be a 3 point shooter he’d be worthless and expendable. Or maybe people will say “Al’s IQ is not that high and he did not know that adding a non-stretch big man would push Smith to perimeter”.
Combine that with saying he could iso and create at the top of the key if the coach told him too and Horford is a d-bag.
His 2 All Star Games is the worst thing that could have happened to this franchise. We should have been searching for a true shooter and a true center the whole time. Instead we settled for a shooting-center. And he shoots because he is terrible off the dribble. Let someone else go fishing for a superstar to carry him.
ATL can’t play that game any longer. Make the move now. He’s a distraction from what complements the team (shooting PF with defensive ability, steals, blocks, and or rebounds + big defensive center, rebounds, defense).
————–
-Andrew Bogut
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick 1 in 2005 by Bucks
Best Case: Brad Miller Meets Vlade Divac
Worst Case: Chris Kaman
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick 3 in 2007 by Hawks
Best Case: Emeka Okafor
Worst Case: Ronny Turiaf
Sounds like same old Hawks to me…
—————–
ryan
January 18th, 2012
11:37 am
I heard something the Hawks were interested in Boris Diaw the former Hawk imo i wish we would look at Okafor .
burntpoptrtz
January 18th, 2012
11:39 am
Just saw where JSM mentioned Will Lavigne in the D league. I had read that he was going to play in France this year. The developmental league would be perfect for this kid. He’s got a great jump shot but needs to put on weight. He’s 6′9″ but when I saw him play at Nova, he onlly weighed 205. He scored 24 points though.
Rev in Tampa
January 18th, 2012
11:40 am
@kwooden – “Just watched the Raptors game again and for anyone that says the HAWKS are better without Horford is just a hater. Marvin can’t play like he did and expect for his team to win another game! We’re lucky that Josh was hitting his shots and Joe was playing the way he should. Tomorrow night could get really ugly if Marvin and Tracy don’t come to play some basketball!”
This is my feeling exactly. The Hawks need to find a replacement for Al if they are to have any hope of maintaining a 5th or 6th seed going into the playoffs. (I don’t see the Cavs, Knicks, Celts, or Bucks overtaking us if we find a decent replacement).
But if the Hawks simply ‘ride what they have’ or pick up a scrub from the garbage heap they will struggle to make the playoffs.
I say this because Al is very important to the Hawks. He fits what the Hawks are trying to do – be an athletic, active, physical (Drew’s word is physicality) team that uses its shooting ability to open up the inside game.
A big, lumbering, slow center does not fit that mold. Nor does a tall, quick, string-bean center. Al fits the niche quite snugly.
Without Al the Hawks will certainly struggle. I’m afraid we will find out just how much beginning tonight.
The Truth
January 18th, 2012
11:42 am
If the Hawks don’t balance the team with youth, they will soon resemble the Celtics and their current aging problems.
MattP
January 18th, 2012
11:46 am
The only way I would like Diaw is if the Hawks trade Marvin for him.
Rufus1
January 18th, 2012
11:50 am
The personal hate for certain players is crazy…
Some of you want to trade for WORSE PLAYERS, just to get rid of the player you don’t like…REALLY?
We need to save money, so we can sign this MAGICAL SUPERSTAR that doesn’t exist or won’t COME to ATL.
What we need is our COACH, to get these players, to play upto their potenial. We need our GM/ OWNERS to ensure our COACH has the right TALENT on the roster.
Buddy Grizzard
January 18th, 2012
11:50 am
High draft pick? MC has given up on this team.
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
11:52 am
Rev, you think Al has changed his stance about playing center or does he still want us to bring in a big man to take those minutes?
To me, when Al comes back, he will put more emphasis on saying slide me to the 4, Josh to the 3, and give us some defensive size…..but, I’m not sure there are any options to find that given the current salary structure we have here.
-If you can move Marvin and give someone a 2nd to go along with it for cash, do it!
-If you can move Zaza in the same manner, do it!
I don’t think you can any better for those 2.
You have to find a way to free up those 2 contracts. I’m convinced the rest of the bench can fill their roles.
Too many tweeners, Trade Horford
January 18th, 2012
11:54 am
You do realize that despite being a 6′10 European, Ersan Ilyasova can’t shoot and lost his starting position to some 7 footer named Jon Leuer.
Predictably.
Grandad
January 18th, 2012
11:56 am
It makes no sense that we did not keep Benson
and ay least pretend he was worthwhile;
that way he would be an asset now in order to be filler
in possible trades.
By cutting him we diminished his value.
Now if we were to bring him back, he is tarnished as a trade chip.
What good did it do to keep Sloan ?
We had this kid; [Benson]
even if we did not wish to keep him;
why not manage him as an asset so as to enhance his value.
Sund for GMOY
Grandad
January 18th, 2012
11:56 am
* at rather than *ay
vava74
January 18th, 2012
12:03 pm
Grandad
January 18th, 2012
11:56 am
Agreed Grandad. A second round pick with a discernible NBA skill could always fit in a trade.
Just Joe
January 18th, 2012
12:06 pm
You take any expiring contract for Marvin. Diaw? Sure, but Bobcats say they are not willing to take back a bad contract. Does Marvin have a bad contract?
vava74
January 18th, 2012
12:08 pm
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine
Marvin for Diaw is not possible. Not with ASG paying 1.4 million in luxury tax.
Mr Mojo
January 18th, 2012
12:11 pm
If this ownership doesn’t make a move they show how pathetic they truly are. You can’t lose your allstar center and say we gonna just go with what we got and feel good about it. Enough of this penny pinching crap go get some help for this team. they are not far off but need ownership and gm to help them out. Guys are out there for salary dumps guys like Okur went for a 2nd rd pick they can get someone if they want to spend the money.
jimmie jet
January 18th, 2012
12:19 pm
Stay with this lineup,but give Collins a little bit more playing time. Also it seems as though when Josh Smith drives to the basket in the early stages of the game his jump shot falls easier.
Section 303
January 18th, 2012
12:22 pm
vava, PHEW! That trade would not have been a good one. Never make a trade when you are giving up the better player.
I just think the Hawks should stay put. I still think this team could be alright. We’ll find out soon enough. Tonight will be a great test. I am really anxious for tonight’s game. Hope I’m not alone and we actually have fans in the seats.
Buddy Grizzard
January 18th, 2012
12:22 pm
1 Marcus Camby, POR
2 Dwight Howard, ORL
3 Andrew Bynum, LAL
4 Joakim Noah, CHI
5 Kevin Garnett, BOS
6 Carlos Boozer, CHI
7 Tyson Chandler, DAL
8 Tim Duncan, SA
9 Zaza Pachulia, ATL
10 Brendan Haywood, DAL
11 Tiago Splitter, SA
12 Marc Gasol, MEM
13 Zach Randolph, MEM
14 Aaron Gray, NO
15 Nene, DEN
16 DeJuan Blair, SA
Gerald Wallace, POR
18 Carmelo Anthony, NY
Al Horford, ATL
20 Kenyon Martin, DEN
21 Jeff Foster, IND
Roy Hibbert, IND
Serge Ibaka, OKC
24 Tony Battie, PHI
25 Lamar Odom, LAL
26 Josh Smith, ATL
27 Taj Gibson, CHI
28 Mike Miller, MIA
29 Nick Collison, OKC
30 Pau Gasol, LAL
31 Matt Barnes, LAL
32 Jared Jeffries, NY
33 Amare Stoudemire, NY
Nenad Krstic, BOS
35 Evan Turner, PHI
36 Chris Bosh, MIA 21
Josh McRoberts, IND
38 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
39 Omer Asik, CHI
Thaddeus Young, PHI
KevinM
January 18th, 2012
12:23 pm
GDad, say Benson would have made the cut…..you think the odd man out would have been Ivan?
I see it as LD looking for guys who could help now and like someone else said earlier, his job is to get the most out of what he has.
Sund has to pull the trigger here, and soon before it gets more expensive.
Buddy Grizzard
January 18th, 2012
12:24 pm
Guess what stat is listed above. Hint: It’s rankings for all players who participated in the 2011 NBA playoffs. As you can see, Zaza is ranked 9th ahead of guys like Zach Randolph, Chris Bosh and Pau Gasol. What stat is this the 2011 playoff ranking for?
Astro Joe
January 18th, 2012
12:25 pm
How many young, raw bigs are available to be signed as FAs to develop as long-term projects? Are you serious that Benson would be a trade chip when gyms are littered with “orphaned” big men waiting to get adopted? After 3 months and no practice time, why would Benson be a trade chip? Has any team signed him in the past few momnths if he is considered a viable NBA product?
The Truth
January 18th, 2012
12:25 pm
With all the coaching staff and experience role players on the team, I find it amazing that (after all these years); no one has helped Marvin with his shortcomings in the paint. Marvin’s length at his position (his greatest asset) is useless if he doesn’t know how to us it which is his greatest problem.
Marvin’s version of making a strong move to basket is to mildly jump, stretch (with no conviction) and put the ball in the basket with no hang time to draw contact. It seems he never considers defenders might block his shot in the process. Blocking Marvin’s shot is so simple; a midget caveman can do it with little effort. He’s always falling because he jumps awkwardly; therefore he lands awkwardly and prone to injuries often.
As much as it bothers me to state the obvious, it is “The Truth”.
It’s hard to defend when you can’t comprehend.
Too many tweeners, Trade Horford
January 18th, 2012
12:27 pm
No bench Marvin for Vlad. Marvin benched the entire 4th.
BTW who is POR starting?
Felton
Wes, Jamal
Gerald Wallace, Batum
Aldridge
Kurt Thomas
Teague
Joe Johnson
Josh Smith
Rasheed (Leuer, Vlad)
Okafor or any bum center
I finally see what people are trying to say about Al. Yeah we can without Horford.
But we can’t win without a quality starting center. And I don’t see one on the roster.
PS Bogut destroyed Hawes and Elton Brand. Thad Young is playing garbage. Celtics are done. Wade is injured. Rose is injured.
And we could easily win the East if ASG made a f*** ng Horford move.
Buddy Grizzard
January 18th, 2012
12:30 pm
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=reboundRate&year=2011&seasontype=3&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fhollinger%2fstatistics%3fsort%3dreboundRate%26year%3d2011%26seasontype%3d3
Rufus1
January 18th, 2012
12:30 pm
“I say this because Al is very important to the Hawks. He fits what the Hawks are trying to do – be an athletic, active, physical (Drew’s word is physicality) team that uses its shooting ability to open up the inside game.
A big, lumbering, slow center does not fit that mold. Nor does a tall, quick, string-bean center. Al fits the niche quite snugly.”- REV
Co-sign…It is called basketball common sense.
Too many tweeners, Trade Horford
January 18th, 2012
12:31 pm
Buddy is it rebound %?
Too many tweeners, Trade Horford
January 18th, 2012
12:38 pm
How is Horford fitting in right now.
And quit the athletic crap. When Smith goes to the bench Hawks play Pachulia and move Al to the 4.
That is not athletic. And as stated by Buddy Horford and Smith/Zaza rank average rebounding% wise.
Hawks are trying to be average. average.average.average. Horford is Mr. Average. to a team with Below Average alternatives.
Would a true center have ripped his arm off getting a layup blocked by Roy frikkin Hibbert
doc
January 18th, 2012
12:39 pm
ditto sautee at 10:12.
the real question MC is not yours but why they never addressed this issue; rather than wait until it can deep six the whole season or ruin our wonderful season of entertainment.
Too many tweeners, Trade Horford
January 18th, 2012
12:40 pm
This win would make 4 in a row. So right on cue. Sund does nothing.
Just Joe
January 18th, 2012
12:40 pm
Marvin for Diaw works. Roughly $7.5M to $9M.
Whether the Hawks pay the tax depends on them making another trade.
My choice:
Atlanta gets Kaman
Lakers get Hinrich
New Orleans gets Diaw & Lakers’ 2013 1st rd pick (Odom trade exception)
Hawks save $1.5M and open a roster spot.
Now go dump Joe Johnson in a similar trade.
Rev in Tampa
January 18th, 2012
12:41 pm
KevenM,
I’m not all that concerned about what Al wants. I want to preach a minimum of 45 minutes and sing at least 5 hymns each Sunday but my leadership won’t stand for it. Neither will the congregation. To do what I want would undermine the strength of the overall worship service. So I do what is best for everybody.
The Hawks are not asking Horford to do anything unreasonable. They are specifically asking him to play as a tweener C/PF to out maneuver the traditional centers. He is quicker than the traditional centers and can outmuscle the string-bean centers.
Al becomes very pedestrian when he plays PF. The Hawks tried that expierment last year with the ‘Big Line-up’. With the exception of the Orlando series I saw nothing special out of Al at the PF.
Summer Sautee
January 18th, 2012
12:44 pm
“In Al’s absence, we need a tough, defensive minded center. He don’t need offensive skills, just defense for a few minutes of contribution each night.”
Actually, we have needed that for 3 years now, and that’s WITH Al. That’s the kind of center Horford said he wasn’t and was asking for a trade because he’s not that type of player.
Should have traded him for that guy because as we see Josh is quicker, more dynamic and easier to build around.
Sucks we have to lose because we thought Al’s problems for the position were mental. Should have traded him.
Summer Sautee
January 18th, 2012
12:48 pm
“The Hawks are not asking Horford to do anything unreasonable. They are specifically asking him to play as a tweener C/PF to out maneuver the traditional centers. He is quicker than the traditional centers and can outmuscle the string-bean centers.”
Except he just injured himself against a traditional center and the stringbean centers don’t make it to the playoffs Rev.
Should have traded him for traditional. What if we had Hibbert and they had Horford. I know Hibbert’s 7′2 and probably injury risk but.
Who would not do that trade right now?
Traditional vs Tweener. It’s not unreasonable to expect more injuries from Horford. Blake Griffin, the 2 Miami ankle sprains, and now this.
Why do you think he started shooting jumpers in the first place. To COMPENSATE.
doc
January 18th, 2012
12:48 pm
rev, hate to tell you but after 20 minutes, you are the only one still listening. it is kind of like someone here who cant stop either. tune out into a trance at church or scroll, same thing. heh heh