Atlanta Hawks: What should they do now (poll)?
Al Horford had surgery today and let’s go ahead and say he’s out for the year, regular season and playoffs.
I don’t know that for sure, of course, but out three to four months on Jan. 17 sure sounds that way. If he comes back at the end of the regular season, how long before he’s in game shape and ready to contribute? Could he really make a difference in the playoffs under those circumstances? Is it even worth it at that point for the Hawks to send out their All-Star center with four years left on his $60 million extension?
Loading ...The Hawks might have been able to make a good run at the East finals with Horford. It would have been interesting to see if they could do it, at least. Without Horford, the focus has shifted to whether the Hawks still can make the playoffs without him (yes) or win a playoff round if they manage to make the postseason (unlikely).
But shouldn’t the thinking go beyond that that now for the Hawks? Isn’t looking to the future the prudent thing to do once you accept that a) Horford isn’t coming back or b) he won’t have much if an impact if he does or c) even if he does come back healthy this team has maxed out?
When you look ahead, you see that the Hawks have roughly $61 million committed to six players next season. If it stays that way, Atlanta will have no cap space and would face the possibility of adding free agents around Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Jeff Teague with the mid-level, bi-annual and minimum-salary exceptions (or a higher salary through a sign-and-trade). With about $9 million of wiggle room beneath the luxury-tax line, could the Hawks build a true contender that way?
I suppose the Hawks could try to add a big now, either a stop-gap for this season or a legit center both for this postseason and next season. The free-agent pickings are slim but once Kirk Hinrich is healthy it’s possible his expiring $8.1 million contract could be flipped for a center. That most likely would mean the Hawks would have to take on more salary next season while keeping that $9 million tax wiggle room in mind.
Larry Drew, for one, is proceeding as if Atlanta will stick with the status quo.
“That’s the approach I have to take,” he said. “I don’t want to get my hopes built up about something possibly happening and it doesn’t happen. I would rather approach it as nothing is going to happen, this is the team and we will go out and do the best we can.”
If they best the Hawks can do with this roster still leaves them out of the playoffs, that would be disappointing for them considering their high hopes this season. But it may not be the worst thing in the world considering they could have a high pick in what’s supposed to be a deep draft. That player (or the pick) could be a valuable asset down the line, either as a trade chip or a promising young (and cheap) rotation player.
It’s difficult for me to guess how Hawks management would react to things coming to an end in that way for the core. The whole point of keeping this team together was to make a “make or break” run at it this year. The Hawks made the team deeper by adding minimum-salaried veterans but now the master plan has been undermined by losing one of their key cogs to a freak injury.
That’s bad luck, but does that bad luck mean the Hawks keep the core together another year for another run? If they decide this group has run its course, anyway, do they make another run at Dwight Howard even if he still doesn’t include them on his list? If they can’t get Howard, do they trade away a core piece and start building toward acquiring a different superstar or better complementary pieces around whichever part of the core is left behind after trades?
I don’t know what they should do. You tell me, blog people.
Notes
- Tracy McGrady (back) participated in a lengthy workout after practice along with Jerry Stackhouse and Jannero Pargo and looked pretty good. McGrady said he hasn’t consulted the team’s staff while dealing with his ailments: “I haven’t talked to them about it, but I feel pretty good where I’m at. I’m putting in extra work to see where I’m at coming off the back injury. I’m feeling pretty solid. I feel good, legs feel good. I’m ready to go. I wish they’d release me. And I don’t mean from the team.”
- Drew said the starting lineup could be fluid depending on opponent: “That could happen. We are looking at matchups. There are going to be some teams we play against where we are going to have to tweak it a little bit and then as the game progresses make a decision as far as other matchups. We’ve had some situations where started the game and haven’t felt totally comfortable with [matchups] but guys have played through it.”
- When Horford went down, Drew said he was concerned about the Hawks feeling sorry for themselves and letting up. That hasn’t happened: “One good thing that has happened was even when that happened, some of these veteran guys have spoken out and said these are the type of situations that show what a team is made of. These guys have been in this thing a while and they’ve experienced a lot of different situations. They are passing it on.”
- Josh on how the Hawks can keep winning without Al: “I think if Ivan keeps giving the energy and effort he’s giving off the bench and the physicality I think we will be good in the frontcourt. As long as we do that and the guards do that and play tough and make it hard to get into the paint and us being a force, we will be OK. We have to have an identity of being a scrappy team.”
- Josh on his recent tear: “I’m just being aggressive and confident but, in the same breath, playing within the offense and not forcing anything. I’m getting shots in the offense, getting open looks, and guys are finding me. Everyone is being unselfish.”
- Josh is now up to 42 percent on long 2s this season after shooting 39 percent last season. The league average from that range this year is 38 percent. “It’s really muscle memory, not fading on my jump shot and standing in there,” he said. “Whenever I do that I feel good about making shots.”
- Josh on the his slimmer frame: “I feel a little bit more explosive. I might have been winded after all these game last year.” He said it doesn’t help with his jumper, though: “There’s a lot of chubby guys out here that are strokers.”
- T-Mac on his talks with Josh: “I’ve been in his ear and telling him how he can be more effective on the basketball court. He’s one of the guys that has a high basketball IQ. He’s a good passer, he’s very athletic. At his position there are not too many guys like that. The thing about him is he has to really see the flow of the game and know what we need from him and that’s be aggressive and get to the free-throw line. That’s how you get your [scoring] average up in this league. A guy with his ability, he should shoot 8 to 10 free throws per game. I think he’s taking notice.”
- The NBA released its annual GM survey, which allows fans a chance to see that basketball executives don’t always know as much as you might think. Or maybe they just don’t care enough to fill out those surveys. Probably better for fans who care to go with the latter explanation.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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277 comments Add your comment
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
9:53 pm
AJ – I don’t think your hearing me.
You said, “if he truly had great Bball IQ, would there still be issues with his poor decision making?”
I have repeatedly said his BB IQ is a not applied to his game many times. That is his blind spot.
Does Phil Jackson not have a high BB IQ because he’s not on the court? How about Adelman, Nelson, Lenny, Doc? Catch my point? He knows how the game is supposed to be played, he just can’t apply it to himself, comprende’?
I’ve coached some guys like that. BB minds. Knew where everybody on the court should be. How to beat every team we played. Incredible insight. Then when they got on the court, everything they said on the sideline left them, and they would play a terrible game, going against what they said on the sideline.
That’s what I mean.
X factor
January 17th, 2012
9:53 pm
Jon Koncak was in Al Hofords ear saying fck these mother fckers. you done got paid. lets go down to Orlando and get us a couple hoezz
Al Horford
January 17th, 2012
9:55 pm
Ya’ll figure that chit out.
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
9:56 pm
Robin Lopez only 9 minutes tonite – Gortat and Frye are killing his minutes – We might could acquire him cheaply.
He’s a bum? Ok, but you need some semi-talented bums sometimes. It’s not like your going to acquire an All Star in our position without giving up alot..
steven a
January 17th, 2012
9:57 pm
” I am Sick and tired of people defending AL “scrub” Horford.” He is holding this fanchise back, both he and Marvin,”
John
January 17th, 2012
9:58 pm
Smith,Kirk,Marvin for Howard. He wants to leave ORL
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
10:04 pm
In defense of Leuer, he is up to 11 points and 1 rebound in garbage time in the 4th, as the Bucks are getting blown out at home by the Nuggets.
Jamal
January 17th, 2012
10:04 pm
Eric, I feel you, man.
The comments on here are garbage these days. I can sum it up pretty easily:
- TS will post under tons of identities insulting Horford in any and all ways that he can think of.
- SlimJr will pop in now and then and complain about something and talk about how the team is done and how we need to do something “YESTERDAY”.
- Smith.Leuer.Bogut will address the Hawks’ problems by fantasizing and sharing how much better he thinks we’d be with Leuer and Bogut (two guys who will never play here) and then try to twist the facts to make his argument sound more interesting.
- Sautee or Ken, or someone who actually understands basketball, will waste their time responding to the trolls and then there will be some back and forth argument.
- Depending on how the team played in the previous game, Section ___ will either call the team garbage and soft or talk about how we are better than people think.
- Someone will demand that we fire the coach..
- Drmaryb will pop in with some funny material starting with a random catch phrase, and if someone disagrees with her in a manner that isn’t respectful or questions her credibility, she’ll get explicit and start calling them out like it’s a street fight.
- Grandad will defend Drmaryb and then discuss his theories with a lot of asterisks and hyphens.
- Occasionally, Najeh will pop in and post something good.
Other than that, we’ll get some random people trying to be positive or talking about how they hate the team and how we are not going anywhere, or they’ll make fun of Sund.
Smith.Vlad.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:05 pm
MC never asked the question if the Hawks are better off building around Smith and Teague instead of Horford.
Smith is only one year older than Horford.
What players want to come here, to an ATL team without Josh Smith? If Josh went down instead of Horford you think Al would have dropped 30?
you guys are jokesters lol
Anyone who says it would be easier to take Al out the core is a hater?
Josh + true shooter PF + true center
Yeah we could use a center tomorrow vs. Lamarcus Aldridge. But why does that center have to be Horford.
He ain’t playing tomorrow. So we lose and then what. Strickland comes in and starts saying “OH YOU NEED HORFORD HATERS !!!”.
Oh really? Why not Bogut or Okafor or some other good man to man defender.
Its garbage the way people try to favor Horford and hook him up with superstars so he can be a winner.
Why isn’t focus on the stars we already have and complement them an option.
But go to the draft and hope the guy turns into a star before Horford gets old. This is stupid.
But I know some fans would love nothing more than to see Joe Johnson in a Bulls uniform.
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:10 pm
Does Phil Jackson not have a high BB IQ because he’s not on the court? How about Adelman, Nelson, Lenny, Doc? Catch my point? He knows how the game is supposed to be played, he just can’t apply it to himself, comprende’?
I’ve coached some guys like that. BB minds. Knew where everybody on the court should be. How to beat every team we played. Incredible insight. Then when they got on the court, everything they said on the sideline left them, and they would play a terrible game, going against what they said on the sideline.
That’s what I mean.
=========
Like Josh Smith trying to post up Bosh or Love and he ends up getting pushed off the block.
Or Horford twisting his ankle on a floating jumper.
Or Horford having worse FTA total than Marvin Williams despite getting more minutes and more touches.
Jamal
January 17th, 2012
10:11 pm
and I bet you cant guess who I am?
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
10:12 pm
Now of course the Bucks stage a comeback with both Leuer and Bogut on the pine.
Jamal
January 17th, 2012
10:12 pm
Ok Ill give you a hint
Im either ken or sautee…
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:14 pm
Jennings 2 points last game. 30+ this game. SG of the year.
X factor
January 17th, 2012
10:15 pm
Ok Jamal you got to be Sautee because ken is clearly an idiot and you like to compliment yourself for being the most clever of all the trolls and identities you use.
The only one you fool is the one you see in the mirror.
The Al Horford Ballad
January 17th, 2012
10:17 pm
Ding dong the witch is dead the witch is dead the witch is dead ding dog the wicked witch is dead.
X factor
January 17th, 2012
10:20 pm
Some lawyer ought to make Al pay back all that money by prorating (12pts 8 rbs / down time) – draft number.
Humanitary Aid
January 17th, 2012
10:22 pm
OK guys knock it off with the anti Al Hoford stuff. OK?
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
10:23 pm
You know SLB under Horford’s draftexpress page, it says his best case scenario is Emeka Okafor.
And after a slow start, Al was averaging 14.3 and 8 the last 7 games before he was injured. He had 4 multi-block games already. His last 2 games he had 4 assists and 6 assists. Shooting 56.5% in January, and 85.7% from the line. And he was mister consistency, and was at least trying to play more in the post.
Those are decent numbers. But nothing compared to the monster numbers Josh has been giving us 7 of the last 8 games. That dude has been on fire.
But Horford was consistently above average. Josh said he and Al were the bash brothers. I like it. Hope the Hawks can replace Al with somebody decent.
And did ya’ll notice MC’s rather negative assesment of the Hawks without Al? Lottery or 1st round loss, anything else unlikely in his words.
SteveW
January 17th, 2012
10:26 pm
The Hawks are going to have to fish or cut bait with Josh at some point. Unrestricted FA after next season. I hope they are already in talks to re-sign him.
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:30 pm
SteveW
No one’s saying Iso Bogut every game every play like Milwaukee tries to.
But SteveW you watched the game. Does Leuer also remind you of Horford? High IQ early, low ceiling, worse body for rebounding but more fluid jumper and more range.
Would you give his touches and corner spot to Marvin? It’s come to the point where Marvin is playing like a paraplegic.
If Leuer does nothing but draw PFs to guard him in corner. Then he’s better than Marvin.
Andrew Bogut takes Jason Collins spot
Josh Smith takes Al Horford’s spot (like he has been)
Jon Leuer takes Marvin Williams spot
And we get bigger. That’s all I’m saying. I’m not saying Iso Bogut every game every play like Milwaukee tries.
Give him Jason Collins or Pachulia’s touches or Horford’s touches. Give it to Joe, Josh, Jeff and play off them. Duh
the jury has returned a verdict
January 17th, 2012
10:32 pm
Its funny how in an effort to make Al look good people will scan his entire pro career looking for 5 or 10 minute segments where he made 2 blocks or had 2 good days across a 5 year career. Then they take those 2 good days and say, ” see, during this period Al was our most productive player.
Cut that chit out.
The man has 39 playoff game and has been a liability, Add up his numbers in big games and you will shake your head.
dont pick out minute capsule of Al’s career to try and present a false image of his work. Look at the whole picture.
AND STOP TRYING TO MAKE AL LOOK GOOD BY ATTACKING JOSH.
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:32 pm
” Me Was anyone creating doubles for Bogut to get some easy buckets or what? It feels like Bogut should get zero iso touches ala Tyson Chandler but in Milwaukee he has to draw doubles and be “the man”?
Milwaukee fan 1 – I’ve been saying this for years. I have no idea why they run any plays for dude at all.
Milwaukee fan 2 – Sometimes he has a match-up advantage and sometimes he doesn’t. The strategy of pumping it in to him in the post should be match-up dependent. It shouldn’t be a philosophy. Although the match-up might have to be near ideal now, because his post offense has regressed from a couple years ago.”
realgm – GT: Bucks v. Nuggets at 7:00pm CST (Undefeated at home) – page 32
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
10:40 pm
Miscellaneous
- Zaza Pachulia : voted one of the toughest players in the NBA by GMs
- Josh Smith : Tied at 3rd with Dwight Howard for most athletic in the National Basketball Association – McGrady “I’m in his ear, he’s too athletic, He can get 10 FTA per game.”
- Al Horford : Rnd 1, Pick 3 in 2007 by Hawks
Best Case: Emeka Okafor
Worst Case: Ronny Turiaf
-draftexpress
Now we know why people slurp on Horford. His measuring stick was Okafor and Turiaf.
cdog
January 17th, 2012
10:46 pm
convince dwight howard to come home to the hawks now. howard would be the missing piece to the puzzle.its hard to believe rick sund has had al horford a center instead of a power forward for the past years, unbelievable!
the jury has returned a verdict
January 17th, 2012
10:47 pm
“And did ya’ll notice MC’s rather negative assesment of the Hawks without Al? Lottery or 1st round loss”
I dont get it either. What will we miss and not be able to replace? the 12 pts or the 8 rebounds?
In the play offs what will we miss? the 10 pts or the 7 rebounds?
REALLY?
How hard is that to replace?
the jury has returned a verdict
January 17th, 2012
10:47 pm
Al is the same whether at center or powerfoward.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 17th, 2012
10:57 pm
There’s nobody they can sign who is going to make a huge impact, unless Rasheed Wallace or Joel Przybilla have a hot tub time machine at home. If they are going to upgrade the center position, it has to be via trade. If Sund hasn’t reached out to New Orleans to see what it takes to get Kaman — a solid center with an expiring contract — he isn’t doing his job.
Bigman needed
January 17th, 2012
10:57 pm
Bogut finished with 2pts tonight and his team was crushed at home. Let’s hear the excuses.
Crazy_88
January 17th, 2012
11:02 pm
I think Mgmt really didn’t expect for the lockout to end and now that there is a shortened season, they aren’t invested in winning a ring this yr. They screwed up and overpayed JJ thinking he was going to take his game to the next level and he is what he is – they spent the rest on Josh & Horford and now they are stuck with a better than average NBA team but not championship caliber. They have no choice but to trade either JJ, Josh, Horford or have a fire sell and start from scratch.
WIth Horford out, the spotlight is going to burn only hotter for Joe Johnson – mgmt is going to amnesty Joe Johnson regardless If they make the post season or not. Maybe If they make it past the first round they will judge that as an accomplishment..but I doubt it…the only way JJ can save himself is to take this team pass the second round and even then mgmt will probably look to clear his salary from their books.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 17th, 2012
11:11 pm
“I think folk confuse skill and vision for IQ. He has great vision and above average skills to complement outstanding athleticism and defensive instincts. With that package, if he truly had great Bball IQ, would there still be issues with his poor decision making?”
It is possible to have a great understanding of the game and still make bad decisions because you overestimate your own ability. I have always felt this is actually Josh’s problem.
Grandad
January 17th, 2012
11:12 pm
Under the precepts laid out by MC:
I wish to pose this question;
Do we trade Josh now ?
* His trade value will never be higher.
* He could get us a legit Center in return ?
* Do we have the jack to re-sign Josh when his contract expires ?
* Will he maintain his current production ?
_________________________________________________
Answer to MC;
Yes, we will make the playoffs as we are currently constructed.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 17th, 2012
11:12 pm
“Bogut for Heisman! Bogut for President! Bogut for UN General Secty! Bogut for Peace in the Middle East! Bogut for Santa Claus! Trade the whole team for these two, they can win it all 2 on 5!”
LMAO at that entire post
doc
January 17th, 2012
11:16 pm
najeh:
It is possible to have a great understanding of the game and still make bad decisions because you overestimate your own ability. I have always felt this is actually Josh’s problem.
amen to this.
Najeh Davenpoop
January 17th, 2012
11:18 pm
Based on what I know about Sund and the DASG, I am expecting them to sit on their hands, hope to squeak into the playoffs with the current roster as a 7 or 8 seed, hope for Al to come back, and then use his injury as an excuse if (when) the Hawks lose in the first round to Miami or Chicago. I can very easily picture them suckering themselves into thinking that if Al gets healthy for the playoffs, he can provide the needed boost to upset one of those two teams.
MattP
January 17th, 2012
11:20 pm
Grandad,
I agree, we will make the playoffs for sure the way we are constructed without Horford but the question is, will we make it out of the first round. It really depends on who we match up against but unless Zaza has a bunch of good games in the playoff series I don’t see us making it out.
Dept. Of Reality: Suck
January 17th, 2012
11:20 pm
Bogut finished with 2pts tonight and his team was crushed at home. Let’s hear the excuses.
Bogut’s a 4th or 5th option on a contender. Ala Tyson Chandler. Iso Bogut/Chandler = Garbage team.
jr
January 17th, 2012
11:26 pm
The Hawks need to make a trader for Howard or another stud C i love horford but he would be more effective with at PF. Howard would help this year and the future… Look C.Howard PF.Horford SF.J Smith SG. Joe PG. Teague or Hinrich i know it looks impossible but im sure it can be done just look at miami…. show Howard this line up and how would it not draw him to Atlanta I would take that line up over any in the league… im just throughin it out there and i think it would bring more revenue to the Hawks Franchise and fans… some draft pics marvin williams and get joe to reconstruct his contract to make Howard fit long term… i know i would do it to win Championships…
Smith.Leuer.Bogut
January 17th, 2012
11:33 pm
Horford’s defense:
He’d be better next to Dwight Howard… Oh thanks nobody knew that.
Except Dwight+Smith needs a shooter and Horford is not a shooter. He’d be fighting those 2 for 2 point shots. Or even worse move Smith to the perimeter in the corner.
Grandad
January 17th, 2012
11:34 pm
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Slimjr
January 18th, 2012
12:01 am
YESTERDAY! YESTERDAY! YESTERDAY!
kwooden
January 18th, 2012
12:27 am
Just watched the Raptors game again and for anyone that says the HAWKS are better without Horford is just a hater. Marvin can’t play like he did and expect for his team to win another game! We’re lucky that Josh was hitting his shots and Joe was playing the way he should. Tomorrow night could get really ugly if Marvin and Tracy don’t come to play some basketball!
GO HAWKS!!
SteveW
January 18th, 2012
12:31 am
Reading up on Horford’s surgery – Yuck!
They suture the tendons or muscles or whatever to the bone in the arm – many times making holes the arm to secure the tendons/muscles.
One Cambridge study said it took 8.5 months on average for an athlete to get back to his pre-injury level. We may be fooling ourselves – or being fooled by ASG into believing Al will be back this season.
There are Drs. on this blog who might could help with the prognosis.
doc
January 18th, 2012
12:39 am
steve w, muscle has no integrity when trying to suture it in place. it easily tears as well when there is the slightest movement. i would expect the rehab to go very slowly. it all depends on where, what and how much tissue was “torn” to know what to expect but it is a very tenuous connection they make to attach flimsy muscle to bone. of course there is the problem of muscle atrophy on top of the precarious attachments that has to be built back. i am sure they have very sophisticated measures to attempt to stimulate the muscle but returning to functional status could be very hard in a short time.
SteveW
January 18th, 2012
12:39 am
Grandad – The available Centers are slim pickings right now. I don’t think the Jazz would trade Jefferson for Josh, they’re loaded at PF. Most teams are really deficient in bigs. I really can’t find a fit right now that improves the Hawks in moving Josh, and that I think that team might be interested in moving.
I do see why Sund pushed so hard for Josh/Kanter. Kanter’s been garbage to this point pretty much, but he is only 19, and playing in a log jam. But he is 6-11 267 with skills, and would have allowed you to move Al to PF, with an athletic (semi) big at C. And of course he would have saved ASG 7+ Million dollars this year in the process.
You got any suggestions or possibilities? Again, I really can’t find one.
And if Josh keeps playing like this, you probably just need to offer him 15 mill per year for 5 years and forget about it. The Hawks can afford it. But it means you keep the core intact yet longer, unless you deal Al at some point.
SteveW
January 18th, 2012
12:41 am
Doc – Thanks! Good stuff
hawks fan down under
January 18th, 2012
12:43 am
only time will tell but really Sund HAS to do something. The main reason is because LD clearly doesn’t like Zaza so we won’t get much out of him. I wouldnt be surprised to see Zaza moved for another C
doc
January 18th, 2012
12:45 am
steve w, i wish i could be more optimistic, i tend to think hinrich will have a problem getting up to speed as well. these injuries are hard to forecast from afar because you really need to be there to know how extensive the damage was.
SteveW
January 18th, 2012
12:46 am
When I say the Hawks can afford to offer Josh 15 mill per year, for 5 years, after next season – I’m looking at:
JJ – 20-25 mill
Al – 12 mill
Teague – Probably about 6 mill per when his tender is up
ZaZa if we re-sign him – probably 5 mill per, because bigs are so tough to come by.
So with Josh, at our worst, we would have 60 mill committed to 5 guys. Get some first picks contributing, and the “junk” signings, and your at 10 + million for 8 more guys, and a solid core.
Marvin’s coming off the books eventually – unless he pulls a Koncak.
SteveW
January 18th, 2012
12:47 am
Grandad – But I haven’t looked real hard either on that Josh for a C thing you talked about.