Atlanta Hawks: Tax strapped
You can read about the how the union’s decertification strategy “could signal the breakdown of collective bargaining talks,” would “be like taking a poison pill for the 2011-12 season” and take a look at the list of star players who are “leading the charge of decertification.”
Or you can just pretend that everything is going to work out and there will be NBA basketball soon. Unfortunately for my blog people, that leads to pondering the Hawks’ financial issues. . . .
The other day I assumed the salary cap would hover around $60 million and the luxury-tax level would stay at about $70 million. Cap expert Larry Coon, in a chat at hoopsworld.com, offers the first solid info I’ve seen on cap and tax levels:
Anthony Sanchez
It’s been said the salary cap for the 2012-2013 will be around $61 million. If that were the case, were would the tax threshold be?
Larry Coon
The best info I have right now is that the cap will be frozen at $58 million and the luxury tax threshold will be frozen at $70 million for two years. After that they will be tied to average team spending levels — the cap about five BRI points below average team salary levels, and the luxury tax about three BRI points above.
Take a look at the Hawks’ committed salaries for the next two seasons and you can see their problem. The Hawks have roughly $65 million in guaranteed contracts committed to seven players in 2011-12. They will need to add six more players to get to the minimum of 13. I’m assuming the Hawks still don’t want to be a taxpayer–they didn’t want to do it under the old CBA and it’s doubtful they will be willing to do it in what’s certain to be a more punitive tax system.
Let’s say all six of of those players the Hawks sign are minimum-salaried vets that meet the requirements for their salaries to count as two-year players for cap purposes. That still would add roughly $5 million to Atlanta’s cap figure. And that would mean pushing up against the $70 million luxury-tax threshold while adding nothing but bargain-basement vets and sticking with a roster of 13. The situation gets a little better in 2012-13, when the Hawks have roughly $61.5 million in guaranteed salaries committed.
The Hawks could get a tiny bit more wiggle room this year by including younger, cheaper players like Pape Sy and Keith “Kito” Benson among those six players. But they can forget about (finally) using the mid-level exception if it will start at $5 million as most reports indicate. The bi-annual exception is probably out, too, if it still will start at around $2 million (and the owners reportedly want to get rid of it completely).
It’s possible that the new CBA would have mechanisms in addition to the amnesty and the “stretch provision” to help teams shed cap salary. But if the Hawks still do not want to be a taxpayer, they may have to use one of those provisions just to clear enough salary to make some real improvements.
Speaking of which . . .
ESPN.com’s 5-on-5 riffs on Marc Stein and Chad Ford’s likely amnesty candidates story to identify the five most desirable targets if they are let go. Marvin makes the list twice.
Jovan Buha of ClipperBlog says Marvin would be the fourth-most desirable amnesty free agent:
Even though he’s only 25 years old, Williams’ productivity has regressed over the past two seasons. He’s been the odd man out in Atlanta, as he’s seen Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford eat away his minutes. But with loads of potential coming out of college, he might just need a change of scenery (just hope for the opposite of the Jeff Green effect).
And Nick Friedell of ESPN Chicago says Marvin would be the most desirable amnesty free agent of the bunch:
Has he lived up to the expectations he had coming out of the draft? No. But he’s still just 25 and has more time to get better. This list is full of guys who are past their respective primes. Williams may not have hit his … whatever that may be.
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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71 comments Add your comment
Grandmaster JeJe
November 4th, 2011
7:20 pm
This team will have the same roster this season it’s had for the last 7 years, save for 1 or 2 relatively new core players (every year there’s a little tweak. We have Kirk now)
Almost half our roster will be guys like Pape Sy, Keith Benson, and Magnum Rolle, all of whom are ranked 495-500 in ESPN’s ranking of 500 NBA players. The other scrubs will be Cheeseburger Collins, Hanno Mottola, and Matt Freije. *Yawn*
Grandmaster JeJe
November 4th, 2011
7:25 pm
The player Joe has been missing all these years is Danny Granger. If we had him, an established Small Forward who can score 25 any night and 35 on some, Joe would not have to work as hard and he would be in fresher shape.
If BK had passed on Marvin that night and had insisted on a SF, Granger would’ve been right there
FIRE LD
Mike is back
November 4th, 2011
10:23 pm
MC, when you see Mr.Levenson…tell him I never meant none of that stuff I said…it was Shultz and Bradley that put me up to it…Hey, I always like ASG…I think they all a bunch of smart guys. heh heh
Mike is back
November 4th, 2011
11:07 pm
OB, how do you de-emphasis the highest paid player on your team…without trading him…ala go away from ISOs.
How do you make the highest paid player on the team…a second or third option in your rotation…without farther under valuing the sh*t load of money you paying him.
So even after you trade Marvin…what’s your next move.
Grandmaster JeJe
November 4th, 2011
11:39 pm
Someone like Roy, if amnestied, would never come here. Would the better players just sign for dirt cheap knowing they’re already getting paid mad bills from the team that amnestied them?
Hope that’s a word
David Stern
November 4th, 2011
11:53 pm
Don’t kid yourselves, if the money is right, most players would still sign here, and ASG has the money to do it. The problem is: None of the suits knows how to build a contending roster. We’re more like the NY Mets than the Tampa Bay Rays.
Woody
November 4th, 2011
11:57 pm
Here’s the plan: Package Josh and Joe to a contender for expirings and picks. Miss the playoffs, maybe get in the Top 10, select a wing and a big, start fresh in 2012-2013. Done and done.
EmirS.
November 5th, 2011
12:01 am
It’s really not that simple…..
Grandmaster JeJe
November 5th, 2011
12:39 am
Our head coach and I’m sure at least half the owners don’t even live in the city in which they are employed.
Amnesty DKASG
Buddy Grizzard
November 5th, 2011
3:23 am
Any more comments about how Marvin Williams has no trade value?
Grandmaster JeJe
November 5th, 2011
10:03 am
Buddy Grizzard
November 5th, 2011
3:23 am
Any more comments about how Marvin Williams has no trade?
Yeah – Amnesy Marvin
Grandad
November 5th, 2011
11:11 am
Andy Rooney has passed at 92, R.I.P.
born in 1919, same year as my father.
________________________________________________________
Joe and Josh could be traded independently for
two [one each] young up and coming SuperStars.
Honestly this is the way to go.
However, we’re stuck in never never land,
due to – ASG *(lame ducks) … Sund *(retired on the job) … & LD *(IP);
* # 1. [no explanation necessary]
* # 2. [courtesy Big Ray]
* # 3. [Ill Prepared]
Until we solve #’s 1, 2, -&- 3 it don’t matter.
I realize I’m echoing Big Ray, but it’s a fact.
Right now it is very difficult to remain a fan of the NBA at large;
but to remain a Hawks fan takes resolve beyond all measure.
Go Dawgs !
*and I mean Fox’s Hounds as well.
How ’bout them Hounds !
-Nemanja Djurisic- anybody know who he is ?
skyhawk1
November 5th, 2011
12:06 pm
Marvin, there’s hope. Even K. freaking Brown is in the NBA.
northcyde
November 5th, 2011
6:21 pm
Hawks should have three late 1st round picks on the roster right now ( Jordan Crawford + someone else in 2010 + 1st round in 2011 ), and an extra 2nd round pick, to at least give us young talent that we could possibly develop in future years. We would’ve had a plethora of guys on their rookie contracts, which could’ve made trades more doable in the near future.
You see how a team like Washington coveted Jordan Crawford ( while wanting to get away from Hinrich’s contract )? That scenario could’ve played out a few more times with the other 1st round picks.
Bibby would be in the last year of his deal, and probably be the main guy that the amnesty clause would be used on.
Hawk ( should’ve have been ) salaries in 2011 – 12
Johnson – 18.04 million
Smith – 12.4 million
Horford – 12 million
Williams – 7.5 million
Bibby – 6.2 million ( I believe . . and would be the prime amnesty candidate )
Zaza – 4.75 million
Teague – 1.58 million
1st round #18 pick 2011 – 1.57 million ( using Eric Bledsoe’s salary in 2010 )
1st round #24 pick 2010 – 1.24 million ( using Damion James salary )
Jordan – 1.12 million
Pape Sy – .79 million
Rolle – .79 million
2nd round 2010 – .79 million
Benson – .79 million
At the maximum, that’s 14 players on the roster at 69.58 million. Maybe a SMART organization would forego the Benson 2nd round pick, and leave it open to sign a cheap veteran player on a year by year basis. Maybe they do the same for that for the 2010 2nd round draft pick, leaving 2 slots open. And maybe they don’t even pick up Magnum Rolle at the end of last year, giving us 3 slots open.
The Hawks may have been up against the Luxury Tax. But the BIG THING is that we would have a nice pool of young 1st round talent to choose to develop, or trade for an upgrade in player. And if some of those young players could ball, we’d have them in their rookie contract years, getting much more over their value.
Honestly, the 2011 Hawks should look something like this:
PG – Teague
G – Johnson
F – Williams
PF – Smith
F/C – Horford
6th man – ( G ) – Jordan C.
7th man – ( C ) – Zaza
8th man – ( G ) – Bibby
9th man – ( F ) – Chris Singleton ( 2011 1st round )
10th man – ( C ) – Jason Collins
11th man – ( PF ) – free agent vet minimum big man
12th man – ( G/F ) – Damion James ( 2010 1st round ) . . although I would’ve taken PF Jarvis Varnado
Not dressed
- free agent Center
- Sy ( ? )
- Benson ( ? )
Bibby’s 6 mill would’ve fallen off the books going into the 2012 – 13 season, and we’d still would’ve been in good shape number wise, with the ability to tweak the roster via trades. The 2012 season would also be a prime time to either extend or trade Smith.
If Teague turns out to be 75% of the player we saw in that Chicago series, we’re looking a a new core of Johnson – Horford ( or Smith ) – Teague . . with one of the younger guys like Jordan or Singleton stepping their games up. Heck, maybe even Marvin awakens from the dead, and be that 3rd/4th main guy.
northcyde
November 5th, 2011
6:37 pm
And I forgot to add . . . if the Hawks did decide to use the amnesty on Bibby, there’s your mid-level free agent contract right there . . . probably for a PF or C.
But i doubt the ASG would even go that route, because they wouldn’t want to pay 6 million to make Bibby disappear in the last year of his deal.
As for Marvin, if the ASG REALLY wanted to get rid of his contract, all they’d have to do is just give him away. Trade him for a 2nd round pick if things are hopeless for Marvin. No need to amnesty the dude. Just give him away.
CrazyDiamond
November 5th, 2011
10:11 pm
New ownweship deal quashed. CBA changes. We are so screwed.
Melvin
November 6th, 2011
1:51 pm
northcyde,
Good breakdown on the roster above but i see one issue. The Hawks wouldn’t have Damon James and Jordan Crawford on the roster. I thought the the Hawks traded James for Crawford and 1st pick in the 2nd round in 2010.
northcyde
November 7th, 2011
9:35 pm
Melvin you’re right.
They traded James at #24 for the #27 and #31 pick. When I said that I would take Varnado instead of James, I would’ve taken Varnado at #31 ( from the James trade for the additional draft pick ).
So in addition of the 1.57 million contract, which was slotted at #24 for James, we’d still have Jordan’s #27 slotted contract, and the #31 slotted 2nd round contract, but not the #24. So subtract 1.57 million off of the total I came up with and an extra player.
That would leave us with 13 players at 68milion, with the option to use or don’t use the three 2nd round picks.
Buddy Grizzard
November 8th, 2011
7:20 am
“You see how a team like Washington coveted Jordan Crawford ( while wanting to get away from Hinrich’s contract )?”
Right, and the Hawks wanted to get away from Bibby’s contract which was attached to a player who, as the playoffs for the Heat showed, is no longer a factor in the NBA. Hinrich was a factor in the playoffs. SVG credited him with helping the Hawks defeat the Magic. The Hawks are trying to win now, not develop inefficient scorers who can’t play defense (Jordan Crawford). Losing Singleton hurts… I think that was a great pick for WAS.
Hano
November 8th, 2011
7:47 am
I can still play.
Hawks are looking good for the future. Get well and in shape guys, take advantage of this downtime and come back ready!
Hawks finally have the ownership thing settled and they don’t have to mess with hockey in the south anymore. things are looking up for the Hawks, mark my words. just have to get this strike busted.;(
Sideline Dude
November 8th, 2011
10:33 am
Have the Hawks left town yet? The sooner the better. Nothing but a bunch of hoodlums as is the whole NBA bunch.