Atlanta Hawks: Playoff preview bonanza
Finally, it’s almost time to end the talking and start the games. Here is my take on the match ups and below are some series previews from around the Inter Webs for your pleasure:
Jason Walker (aka THHB), Peachtree Hoops
My serious summary is this: The Hawks have proven, on the court, that they match up very well with the Magic, even when the Hawks don’t bring their “A” game. If the team is able to defend Howard one-on-one and maintain the defensive blueprint for closing out their shooters, as they have consistently this season, then they can win 4 out of 7 games against this team and move on.
I believe they can and will do just that.
Final Prediction: Hawks in 7
Now, back to my padded white room.
Evan Dunlap, Orlando Pinstriped Post
“[Team X] will only go so far in the postseason as [Player Y] takes them” is an axiom in professional sports, and almost invariably [Player Y] is indisputably the team’s best player. As it applies to the Orlando Magic in this year’s playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks–or against anyone–Dwight Howard is [Player Y]. And it’s equally popular to say, in life at large, that axioms become popular because they are true.
That axiom does not apply in this case.
What Howard does for the Magic–end opponent possessions, score inside, space the floor for his teammates–will be there every night, no matter the opponent, based solely on the consistency and reliability his reputation and skill afford him. No, for the Magic to do anything of note this postseason, the task falls to Jameer Nelson.
More than any other player, even Howard, Orlando’s diminutive point guard makes the team go offensively. Nelson’s skill in running the pick-and-roll, as either a driver or shooter, fits perfectly in coach Stan Van Gundy’s pick-and-roll-heavy approach, while his ability to hit jumpers off the catch helps space the floor and enables him to play off the ball if necessary. It’s true against all teams.
There will be elbows, there will be bruises, there will be complaints about the refereeing, there will be technical fouls. This series will be tucked away among the least-attractive television time slots, but it could be the tightest matchup of the first round in the East. Atlanta will make things ugly, but it can’t hold Howard down in every game, and Orlando has enough outside shooting to make the Hawks pay for giving Howard too much attention. Magic in six.
Kurt Helin, Pro Basketball Talk
Jamal Crawford: Put simply, Atlanta need scoring off the bench so they need Crawford. They really need last-season’s Crawford, who operated out of isolation sets and simple pin-downs to get him free. This season Larry Drew made the Hawks offense more complex and Crawford has been one of the guys struggling to adjust. They need him now.
The Magic aren’t much different from this Hawks team. The same Hawks team that’s two months away from auctioning off Josh Smith and conceding that the current roster just isn’t good enough to compete in the East. Orlando’s got Dwight instead of Joe Johnson, so things don’t appear quite as dire, but the pieces around Dwight are even worse than Atlanta’s supporting cast. So, split the difference, I guess? The Pick: Orlando in 6.
David Thorpe and Anthony Macri, ESPN.com/NBA Scouts Inc.
The Hawks barely limped into the postseason, playing under .500 basketball for a stretch coming in, and having lost six games in a row. While the Magic have not exactly been on a tear themselves, their recent results were significantly better than those in Atlanta. However, the way these two teams have matched up throughout the season would suggest an entirely different result. How these competing bits of conventional wisdom interact will yield the winner in this series, one that should be competitive and hotly contested.
Prediction: Magic in six
Video previews:
Trey Kerby, The Basketball Jones
Josh Robbins and Brian Schmitz, Orlando Sentinel
Dwight Howard and various media types, NBA.com
Michael Cunningham, Hawks beat
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191 comments Add your comment
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
3:24 pm
PYSCHO T AGAIN . . . haha.
Wow.
cp
April 16th, 2011
3:25 pm
Boozer getting owned
calihawks
April 16th, 2011
3:25 pm
wow tyler hansbourough just had a steal vs carlos boozer and then dunked it lol Didnt kno he could that..lol
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
3:27 pm
That was a hell of a pass by Rose.
cp
April 16th, 2011
3:28 pm
Boozer was beat again but Pyscho T missed an easy one.
cp
April 16th, 2011
3:31 pm
Dont understand why George is defending Rose
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
3:32 pm
@ drmaryb . . . not a lazy man’s game is right.
I know people expect a lot out of JJ. I know most fans hold him up to Kobe-like standards, mainly because of the contract. People want that superstar in ATL, and he’s just not that.
But the coaches around the league know what is up with that dude, which is why he keeps getting voted to the All-Star game. While other people who some think are better than JJ, keep getting passed over.
There’s no flash in JJ’s game. The dude is just fundamentally sound in just about all areas. I just hope he gets his 3 point shot back for about a month or two.
You see how Derrick Rose just took over this game? If JJ was on him, I would guarantee you that he wouldn’t get to the rim that easily. Not in this situation.
cp
April 16th, 2011
3:33 pm
Big shot Korver
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
3:33 pm
Devastating loss for Indy if they lose this game. They’ll be confident that they could play with the Bulls, but to let a game like this get away from them in the final 3 minutes is a killer.
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:33 pm
lol @ Larry looking like he wants to suit up..
smh. great game..
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:35 pm
i think Derrick Rose would torch Joe if he was on him right now..
dacheesecakeman
April 16th, 2011
3:37 pm
dang. the pacers just choked. but good going for them for at least showing up
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:37 pm
guy is sick.
LD better think long and hard about Jeff Teague if we make it past Magic.. otherwise Rose might avg 32.
Sleepy
April 16th, 2011
3:38 pm
Pacers shouldve went zone ………..
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:40 pm
smh.
that was a playoff basketball game..
ill say this.. Pacer bigs werent afraid to give hard fouls.. Rose made some amazing finishes.. but they didnt concede anything..
terrell
April 16th, 2011
3:43 pm
Pacers melted down like the Hawks.
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
3:44 pm
No he wouldn’t Dave . . . because JJ would make him take the jumper that he isn’t making right now.
Remember when the Hawks beat the Bulls? This is an exact quote that Ken Sugiura wrote about the end of that game:
- The very crucial play at the end where Johnson defended Derrick Rose with the tenacity of a college walk-on, leading to the bad pass to Rose from Carlos Boozer that led to Johnson’s dunk at the other end can be credited, in a way, to Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague.
In the past, as you well know, Johnson has logged plenty of minutes chasing point guards from the first quarter on. Hinrich had Rose most of the night, and Teague had him for a spell, allowing Johnson to go against Keith Bogans.
“That’s what I was telling Kirk and Jeff before the game,” Johnson said. “I was like, Y’all chase D-Rose around early and, come late, I’ll get him in the fourth and give it everything I’ve got. They did a great job. When I got my chance to guard him, I just wanted to make it tough on him.”
But like I said . . . keep believing that this dude is a “slouch”. It’s a classic case of confirmation bias when it comes to JJ. When you actively look for the guy “slouching”, even if it’s just for one play, it may skew the rest of the things you see.
We see this all the time about people talking about Josh Smith and his effort, knowing good and well that Smith is the one dude that will go all out at times.
And the same goes with JJ. He’s not Kobe or Wade, so when he doesn’t play like that, he gets clowned. If he plays bad, that’s one thing. But even when he doesn’t play bad, people still clown him because he doesn’t play great.
But dude is very good on most nights defensively, even if the offense looks like crap.
brigadierjerry
April 16th, 2011
3:47 pm
Goodplayoff game. Pacers have to go through what it is like first before you can conquer. So far sizers to a fast start
brigadierjerry
April 16th, 2011
3:50 pm
lots of empty seats in Miami even with all those white shirts
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:51 pm
Northcyde..
you’ve never heard from me that Joe was a slouch on either side of the ball, in fact to the eye he defends elite players better than any other Hawk..
now that Ken S quote came on a side inbound.. where Joe denied Rose. right now Derrick Rose is blowing by Devin Hester.. i do not want to see much of Joe isolated against Rose come 2nd round..
now what i did notice in our blowout loses was that Jeff Teague made Rose a perimeter passer.. he has the quickness and upper body bulk to present a nice defensive challenge..
we need Joe to be Joe on the offensive end..
@ least thats what they brought Kirk in for.. smh
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:55 pm
“The very crucial play at the end where Johnson defended Derrick Rose with the tenacity of a college walk-on, leading to the bad pass to Rose from Carlos Boozer that led to Johnson’s dunk at the other end”
side inbound play.. wasnt an iso set Rose going @ Joe. Joe did a great job denying ball.. Boozer through a prayer that was deflected by Joe, Joe sprinted ahead and finished w/ nice dunk over a contesting Rose.. of course Joe just took a couple hops when he landed and jogged over to the Hawk bench..
gotta love Joe.. even when he shines he’s cool as a fan. 1 exception.. when he was in the zone game 4, vs Boston.. he nailed that 3 when he crossed over and Posey tripped. sunk the shot ran down hand beat his chest..
BE SPECIAL JOE!
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
3:58 pm
*threw
lewis
April 16th, 2011
4:00 pm
Sixers could win this series.
Andre Iguodala one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
Elton Brand good at bullying soft players like Bosh.
Jrue Holiday vs Mike Bibby
lewis
April 16th, 2011
4:24 pm
maybe not
Grandad
April 16th, 2011
4:31 pm
northcyde
Upon further review:
Your stats cannot possibly take into consideration
obsevations I made with my own eyes.
-note- [ I never mentioned steals ]
*switches *failing to help *poor fundamental stance
*turning head, getting beat on back cuts * taking plays off
*not fighting through screens *not boxing out *etc.
Also:
scoring avg for shooting guards and small forwards:
(only 9 avg more than Joe gives up per game)
[half play in the West]
Therefore, Joe is giving up more points per than the avg [3, 4] pos avg.
How is that elite?
I’m not sure what is avg shooting % for shooting guard small forward ?
However, 46% seems high for an elite defender to be allowing.
Considering two thirds of the league are not elite scorers.
*(as mentioned earlier)
I really did not ask for stats, but I new you would provide.
I’m really glad you did,
as they [stats] prove the mediocrity of Joe’s defense !
Joe Johnson is not an elite defender / I Watch Him With A Trained Eye.
nc, really not trying to argue, please just watch him with an open mind,
As Will Eye. [pun intended]
hawkfan
April 16th, 2011
4:33 pm
geemack, yes for pride in the playoffs so no more embarrassment like an avg 25 point deficit each game in a 4-game sweep will not occur again
bigdave
April 16th, 2011
4:50 pm
Jason Collins noticeably limping this morning according to ABC..
lewis
April 16th, 2011
5:02 pm
Start Teague.
Section 303
April 16th, 2011
5:02 pm
I’m feeling it! May be the irrational fan in me, but I feel it! I think we see a Hawks win tonight.
By the way, went to the Select-a-Seat event at Philips this morning. As of next season, I will be going by the name Section 212 on here.
hawkfan
April 16th, 2011
5:09 pm
the polls on the homepage for ajc.com/hawks should say how many points will the hawks lose to the magic in game 1, now that’s the real question that is worth pondering, hopefully it won’t be by 25 points
Sautee
April 16th, 2011
5:16 pm
northcyde,
about this: “That’s what I was telling Kirk and Jeff before the game,” Johnson said. “I was like, Y’all chase D-Rose around early and, come late, I’ll get him in the fourth and give it everything I’ve got. They did a great job. When I got my chance to guard him, I just wanted to make it tough on him.”
But like I said . . . keep believing that this dude is a “slouch”.
If this was directed at me, it’s a straw man, since I CLEARLY posted this:
“I WILL say however, that due to the fact that Joe is mostly guarding smaller players, he is an effective defensive player WHEN HE DECIDES HE WANTS TO BE. Not elite, in my book. But effective when he wants to be.”
And, just as clearly, the play you were posting about WAS a time when he decided to guard ferociously. Those are not the plays I have problems with. Ever. Those are the plays I’m cheering for. I just don’t see enough of that consistently.
Maybe he’s “tired”.
Worldwide Clyde
April 16th, 2011
5:40 pm
Select-A-Seat. That was the funniest thing I heard all day. I’ll stick to my scalper that gives me 2 for $10.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 16th, 2011
5:50 pm
Gotta love the Gwinnett County Sixers. Mark Jackson is right. No quit in that team.
Melvin
April 16th, 2011
5:56 pm
I hope Josh is watching how Thad Young is playing for the Sixers. He is attacking goal not settling for the jumpshot….
hawkfan
April 16th, 2011
6:00 pm
so every playoff game today has been close, will the hawks keep up or change that pattern…
Buddy Grizzard
April 16th, 2011
6:12 pm
Here at Phillips Taco Mac… we using this for the game thread or Schultz’ thread?
northcyde
April 16th, 2011
6:21 pm
Grandad . . tell the truth. Do you even know how to interpret those stats? I mean, do you want me to list the SGs around the league that are currently in the playoffs, so that you can compare their Opponent Production, and see if they are better or worse than JJ? It’s easy to do.
I mean, people see what they see with their eyes, yet, ignore what people do at the end of the day. Like with Collins ALWAYS playing center. The “eyes” tell you that because he plays Howard well, that he should always play center. But the eyes AND stats tell you that Collins only does one thing well . . limit the field goal production of a center.
So if that center doesn’t get the ball much in the halfcourt, but crashes the boards, Collins is deemed ineffective because he doesn’t rebound well. And the stats will back both of those things up.
Even with Marvin . . as much as people ridicule him, watch what happens as soon as he goes out of the game, and someone like Jamal comes in. Marvin isn’t a stellar defender, but he is a decent one. Our 2nd best defender at SF, behind JJ.
Even the “great” Damien Wilkins doesn’t play better defense than Marvin. Overall, his Opponent Production numbers are horrible. But because of that confirmation bias, he gets praise when he does make one or two defensive plays, or if he has a decent game. Damien gets lit up far more than he stops people.
I just find it hilarious that the same stats could validate some people, but won’t be believed when applied to someone else. It’s not like the Hawks help out JJ on defense, like they do Jamal. Dude pretty much guards anyone he goes up against, whether it be Dwyane Wade or Deron Williams.
O'Brien
April 16th, 2011
6:21 pm
Najeh,
Pacers did not back down, Sixers did not back down. Will the Hawks back down?
northcyde,
Hard to believe that the previous Pacers coach (Jim O’brien) did not give Psycho T much PT early in the season. When he got fired, the new coach gave him lots of PT, and Psycho T responded.
O'Brien
April 16th, 2011
6:25 pm
Orlando wins this game 90-83.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 16th, 2011
6:33 pm
“Even the “great” Damien Wilkins doesn’t play better defense than Marvin. Overall, his Opponent Production numbers are horrible. But because of that confirmation bias, he gets praise when he does make one or two defensive plays, or if he has a decent game. Damien gets lit up far more than he stops people.”
And here is where stats are limited. Damien, presumably, has played a lot more garbage time minutes than Marvin. Stats don’t distinguish when it is garbage time and players are not playing with the same intensity, or when perimeter defenders are playing with Josh Powell behind them as opposed to Josh Smith. As far as stats are concerned, if someone drives by Damien with 2 minutes to go in a 20 point game and finishes with no resistance at the rim against Powell, it counts the same as if Marvin’s man misses a jumper over him in a 2 point game when Marvin has Smoove and Al waiting behind him to provide help and can afford to play tighter defense on the perimeter as a result.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 16th, 2011
6:38 pm
New blog up