Atlanta Hawks: Is Joe Johnson simply slumping?
J.J. is forcing some shots but he's missing lots of open looks. (Hyosub Shin/hshin@ajc.com)
As J.J.’s offensive struggles have continued he’s started to force things. He’s still a willing passer but he’s also tended to fall back into his habit of holding the ball, setting up his man and going one-on-one. And it just doesn’t seem like he’s been as good as that as usual, a development that’s in stark contrast to how his teammates have taken to the L.D.’s more balanced offensive approach.
But beyond those issues, my perception is that J.J. simply has missed a lot of good, open shots, particularly spot-up 3-pointers. Those are the kind of shots that tend to have little to do with forcing things. By definition, they don’t require J.J. to create his own shot. A teammate already has already made the play to create space; all J.J. has to do is catch the ball in rhythm, square up and make an open shot.
I think J.J. just hasn’t been able to do it consistently this season, but that’s just my perception. So I turned to the Synergy machine, which smashes false perceptions with the cold facts of shot-type statistics and video evidence*. And the numbers confirmed what I’ve perceived: Joe has attempted 54 spot-up jump shots and made just 11 (20.4 percent), including 9 of 46 on 3-pointers (19.6 percent).
J.J.’s shooting percentage on spot-ups is worse than his shooting percentage on every other type of halfcourt play: isolation (24 of 62, 38.7 percent), pick-and-rolls (14 of 44, 31.8 percent), post-ups (11 of 23, 47.8 percent), off screens (9 of 20, 45 percent), handoffs (7 of 15, 46.7 percent), and cuts (18 of 23, 78.3 percent).
It seems there is some merit to the idea that J.J. is slumping. (He’s questionable to play against the Grizzlies due to a sore elbow that apparently has nothing to do with his shooting slump but developed overnight Monday.)
“He is getting some good looks,” L.D. said. “It’s not a concern. I know his hand is bothering him a little bit. But I am confident he will get on target. The fact [is] that he hasn’t shot it with consistency and we’ve been able to still win some games without him shooting the ball very well. When he does get back on track it will make us that more effective. I am not concerned with that. It’s just a matter of him getting out of that little slump.”
As a team, the Hawks have more shot attempts on spot-ups than any other play and have made 133 of 351 (38 percent). J.J. has been the worst spot-up shooter among the perimeter rotation players; Bibby has been the best (25 of 52, 48 percent, which Synergy says ranks No. 7 in the league ). Jamal has made 17 of 45 (37.8 percent) and Marvin 11 of 30 (36.7 percent). Anyone who has watched Al shouldn’t be surprised that he’s made 16 of 30 (53.3 percent) and even Smoove is 26 of 69 (37.7 percent).
So J.J. has been the worst spot-up shooter on what is the league’s No. 15 ranked team for that type of shot, according to Synergy. There’s not much L.D. or anyone else can do to help J.J. if he can’t make simple, open, shots. Putting the ball in J.J.’s hand risks bogging down what has shown signs of becoming a very potent offensive attack as the team’s turnovers decrease (H/T Hoopinion).
But L.D. keeps doing what he can to get his All-Star guard going.
“I try to put him in situations, some of the usual stuff, the pick-and-pops,” Drew said. “Against the teams that do double team, I try to keep him in the middle of the floor where it’s harder to double team him. He’s missing shots that he normally knocks down. It’s just a matter of time until he finds that groove, that stroke again.”
(*My plan had been to review all of J.J.’s spot-up jumpers to see if nearly all of them have been quality shots, as I suspect. Alas, though I tried all day I couldn’t get Synergy’s video function to work so I’ll have to do that some other time.)
MC
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120 comments Add your comment
ag
December 1st, 2010
5:48 pm
There have been several comments about our attendance, players not listing to coaches and bad ownership and front office. This is a very interesting article about our Hawks in the 70’s
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1093017/index.htm
JeJe
December 1st, 2010
5:59 pm
LOL @ people acting like Joe doesn’t not have heart.
The dude averaged like 10 ppg in the playoffs the last 2 years in the 2nd round
GTFOH
The guy would be the 2nd or 3rd best player on any other contender in the NBA
northcyde
December 1st, 2010
6:03 pm
And Sautee . . to add to that . . people know good and well that JJ isn’t a top 10 player in the league, despite the contract he got. Everyone knows why he got that deal, but want to act like he’s supposed to turn into Kobe because he got Kobe type money.
It’s funny though. People want JJ to play up to that contract and put up big “nimbers”, but they don’t want him to be a “ball hog”.
I hate to tell people this, but ALL superstar players are “ball hogs” that have usage % numbers above 25%. Your mega scoring stars like Kobe, Melo, Durant, and Lebron, have usage % numbers above 30%.
JJ is averaging 15.5 shots a game, almost 3 full shots less than he did last year. He understands that when he is cold, he shouldn’t be looking to shoot more.
With JJ struggling with his outside shooting, Drew can call more ISO plays for JJ either out on the perimeter or in the post.
A lot of people trip out over ISO, but the only thing that matters is if the possession is profitable or not. I’d much rather see him go ISO, than him taking a wide open 3. At least until he gets his shot back.
JeJe
December 1st, 2010
6:05 pm
LOL @ Joe with this “hand” injury, and now it’s the elbow which we heard nothing about.
and LOL @ ASG for offering this guy the MAX CONTRACT AT MIDNIGHT ON JULY 1. THEY DIDN’T EVEN TRY NEGOTIATE OR SEE IF HE’D TAKE LESS
WORST OWNERSHIP IN SPORTS
WORST GM IN SPORTS
FIRE SUND
Rev in Tampa
December 1st, 2010
6:05 pm
Enter your comments here
DTC
December 1st, 2010
6:06 pm
Terrell, ever heard of the draft? We passed on at least 3 of them. If I am not mistaken, we drafted one and then traded him. We needed and still need a center much more than we needed Joe. And by the way, any center in the NBA that was worth the same money that Joe was making the previous year, would have been an improvement over Joe, I say this because I realize they can increase the players contract, if he signs with the same team.
DTC
December 1st, 2010
6:09 pm
Also, JOE JOHNSON IS NOT AND NEVER WASS WORTH THE KIND OF MONEY THEY SIGNED HIM FOR. They would have been better letting him go. Period. Now the money they could have used in a future year, this year for example, is tied up with JOE JOHNSON. He is not and never was worth this kind of money. His contract hurts this team more than it helped it. Improper way of using the money.
ag
December 1st, 2010
6:32 pm
DTC okay waht center do we need? Who should we trade for? What center is more productive than Hortford..not named Howard. What team will trade a center?
ag
December 1st, 2010
6:58 pm
The only impact centers drafted since 2005 are Channing Frye and Jakim Noah (we could have drafted him instead of Hortford: Andrea Bargnani and Adrew Bogut (1st pick overall), This year we could have drafted Solomon Alabi. My point is since 2005, we were not in position to draft them and everyone we could have got, sucks. So stop acting like Hortford is Sheldon Williams!
L-QUE
December 1st, 2010
7:12 pm
I have not read so much bulls**t since you ran Vick out of town . Atlanta, like D.Justice said is not a sports town.You have to be dumb as a turnip not to take the money.The Hawks wasnt nothing until JJ got there. He has carried them on HIS back to where they are now. ATLANTA HAD TO PAY HIM to keep the team from falling back to where a lot games I didnt know if the HAWKS would win 10 games. FOR years. HINRICH cant break the lineup on a 20 win team.ELLIS is not a point,he’s having a good first half ,you would say the same thing about him if he missed a shot next year. Cant you see Atlanta dont have a fan base .THE only sport in town will always be Bulldogs football and you want to get rid of that coach. ITS sicking for our players to have always go thur this hateful fan base. One week Josh’ Marvin ,Joe , I have been a fan for a long time thur thick &thin from SWEET LOU to BIBBY. We all want them to win show some love we have been worst with less. Enough with these dump ass trade ideal . it clearly show a lack of basketball knowledge .MSDEE&SCOOP you made some good am posts help hold the fort
bonquesha
December 1st, 2010
7:18 pm
Wow. Joe is out 4 to 6 weeks. I guess we’ll get to see what these Hawks are made of.
Rev in Tampa
December 1st, 2010
7:25 pm
ESPN is only saying JJ is out for Wednesday’s game. Where are you getting this bonquesha?
bonquesha
December 1st, 2010
7:35 pm
I’m watching the game. He went to see a doctor in Birmingham and made it to the game about 10 minutes before tip-off. He is scheduled to have surgery on his right elbow (shooting arm) on Thursday. Apparently, he is having problems bending it and they have to remove some type of “growth”. So, 6 to 8 weeks says Jerome Jeronovich.
jlewis
December 1st, 2010
7:48 pm
Interesting, no one gave the guy any credit for playing hurt, he’s always played hurt, sick or whatever, thats why the Spirit paid him. Joe doesnt cry or whine, so its said he has no heart, just pitiful.
tom
December 1st, 2010
9:53 pm
get well soon joe!
J-bone
December 2nd, 2010
9:17 am
I guess the answer is no, he’s not simply slumping.
DTC
December 2nd, 2010
10:36 am
AG and Terrell, we passed on three centers in the draft. No, I do not remember any of their names, but the only way we are going to get a center, is to draft one, that is the only way anybody gets a good center. As you say, who in the world would trade a good center. NO ONE. So we should have drafted one, I watched every draft spot they had and there was a good enough center available to draft each time. Even in a later round. Why did we not draft a center and develop him. Again, that is the only way we are going to get one. To get one, you have to draft one – and then develop him. I remember the commentators ask “Why is no one drafting this guy?” He was a center.
By the way, I have said nothing against Horford (not Hortford). I totally agree that Horford is great, he is one of the most phenominal players I have seen in a long time. I am so glad we do not have Noah, Horford was the star of those Florida teams. Noah was good, but he is no Horford. Horford is probably the best single individual player drafted by the Hawks since Wilkins. However, can you imagine how good he could be, and the team could be, at his natural position, forward, and then playing center only as backup, if needed? He is that skilled of a player. I had no problem with signing Joe, for less money, but my argument is we paid too much for him. Your argument is we had to sign him, because he was the only player available worth giving that kind of money to. We paid too much for Joe. Now, if after he has his surgery, and he comes back and I need to eat my words, I will gladly take them back. But, I said when he signed that blasted contract, “it will not be long before we realize we paid way too much for this guy, because the cap money we paid him, keeps us from getting a quality gut to come here.” My problem is with the domino effect, it keeps roling over to the next year. We do not have the money to sign this particular player, that the Hawks need. Bottom line, Joe was paid way too much money, He is nowhere of the quality of a player as Lebron James and Kobe Bryant, and the others who are paid the kind of money Johnson is being paid. Again, I am not against Horford. That is not my argument. My argument is the money issue. Your turn.
ant banks
December 2nd, 2010
10:51 am
the problem that i have wit’ joe is that he was sooo dam greedy that he would not leave money on the table so that the hawks could remain competitive by signing free agents. is their really a diff between 119 mil or 109 mil? i mean really.
this says a lot about jj character to me. leave some change on the table so that we can field a championship team.
DTC
December 2nd, 2010
1:10 pm
I agree ant banks. That is the point I have been trying to make. He is way overpaid.
ant banks
December 2nd, 2010
4:58 pm
ok, i am convinced that dan gilbert, owner of the cavs has gone MAD!! LE BRICK was a free agent and had every right to sign with whateva team he wanted. how was there tamperin’? anyway, gilbert is willin’ to throw millions at lawyers to see if they come up with anything
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/news/story?id=5872747