Atlanta Hawks: Should Smoove really keep shooting jumpers?
He's so good at this should he really shoot jumpers?
Maybe it’s getting to the point where all those fans who groan when Josh Smith winds up to take a jump shot (or even just gets the ball on the perimeter) should bite their tongues. Perhaps all those media types who call a Smoove shot attempt a bad one solely because it’s a jumper (*cough cough*) should become a bit more nuanced in their analysis.
A look at the Hoopdata shot location numbers shows that Smoove is making 43 percent of his shot attempts (20 of 47) from 16 to 23 feet and has a 70 percent effective shooting percentage (7 of 15) on 3-pointers. That’s compared to league averages of 40 percent and 54 percent on those shots, respectively. Over his career, Josh has never shot better than 34 percent from 16 to 23 feet or recorded an effective field goal percentage greater than 45 percent on 3-pointers.
All of the usual caveats apply here. It’s early in the season and the sample size is small. There is a mountain of numbers that says Josh Smith is a very inefficient shooter from beyond 15 feet (or from 10 to 15 feet, for that matter) compared to a tiny snapshot that says that may be changing. It creates a great deal of cognitive dissonance to believe that Josh has improved his jump shot so much that he should go ahead and take them.
This is particularly true since, though he’s still only 24, he’s in his seventh pro season and by now you usually are what your numbers say you are. Is it really possible for a veteran professional basketball player to turn a weakness into a strength (or at least not a liability) in such a short period of time?
“I think it is possible to improve certain aspects of your game if you put the time to it,” said Al, who should know since he hit the gym for two straight summers to work on his jump shot and now is devastatingly effective from mid range. “It’s all about practice.”
And there’s the rub with Smoove: He did put the time in over the summer. He hit the gym with Marietta’s Dion Glover and The Hoops Whisperer Idan Ravin for sessions. There was a heavy focus on tuning his jumper but Josh said Glover and Ravin mostly just shored up his confidence.
“I got a lot of reps up,” Josh said. “We would be in there for about an hour and 15 minutes. What I concentrate most on is stepping in to every jump shot and being confident in myself and not getting discouraged. I miss a couple, I get frustrated and get down on myself and then it’s second-guessing.”
No need for Smoove to do that when so many others are willing to do it for him. No doubt they’ve had good reason to do so considering the evidence but, again, perhaps it’s time to keep an open mind and see if he can keep this up. Josh certainly has looked better when he shoots them, and he’s taking more of them in catch-and-shoot rhythm rather than stopping and thinking about it, which seems to throw him off.
When L.D. keeps saying he isn’t strictly against Josh shooting jumpers and only had a problem with the timing of them, I figured it was just a tactical ploy. I assumed he wasn’t just coming out and saying “Smoove can’t shoot” because, knowing Smoove’s prideful streak, that could be the surest way to make him jack up even more bad shots.
But maybe L.D. was just quicker to see what the rest of us couldn’t.
“When you watch him shoot, he has a nice stroke,” Drew said. “He really does. His lower body is in sync with his upper body when he shoots the ball. He’s got good rotation on his follow-through. My whole thing with him is when he takes them. I don’t want them early in the clock, and I don’t want him camped out on the perimeter when it calls for him to dive to the basket and all of a sudden it swings around the perimeter and he’s out there.”
That’s the concern with Smoove’s growing confidence in his jump shot. He’s been very efficient scoring around the basket in his career, and the Hoopdata numbers show that so far this season he’s taking a whopping 2.4 less of those shots per game and more attempts beyond 10 feet.
But there could be a long-term benefit to the approach. Right now opponents still are pretty much giving Josh jump shots. If it gets to the point where they must respect his ability to score from out there, wouldn’t it eventually allow him to drive to the hole more effectively and either score or set up his teammates, which he’s very good at doing?
“That’s what really helps me open up my whole game, when I am able to knock them down, not just shooting them,” Josh said. “I’m pump-faking and driving to the hole. I’m such a good passer, I find my teammates open on the perimeter. It opens up the dribble drive and definitely opens the cuts for my teammates.”
Said L.D.: “A four would definitely have to get out and play him. He does have the ability in midrange where he is one bounce and to the basket. With Al stretching the bigs out now, if Josh gets to the point where they have to respect him out on the perimeter, it opens up weakside backdoor cuts for us as well.”
So, for now, as long as it’s not early in the shot clock or the Hawks aren’t trying to get something in the post, L.D. is fine with Josh shooting the jumper (and the shot selection remains a work in progress). Smoove’s career numbers say it’s folly to allow him to do so but if Josh keeps making them at a respectable percentage and doesn’t stray from his post game–or becomes an even more effective offensive player once defenders realize they can’t just give him jumpers–then why not?
“I tell all of our players: ‘If it is a shot that you work on in practice, you spend time after practice on it, and its’ your shot, I want you to shoot it and feel confident about shooting it,’” L.D. said.
MC
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89 comments Add your comment
doesnt matter, i'm first!
November 19th, 2010
3:35 pm
FIRST !!
I_am_soulstar
November 19th, 2010
3:36 pm
I’m definitely one of those that bites his tongue when Smoove shoots now. He’s earned it.
Khao$
November 19th, 2010
3:42 pm
MC this is an EXCELLENT READ and good information on a topic that has been run on the ground on this blog. Honestly, he has really improved…in the small sample of games we’ve seen. Here recently, I feel more comfortable with him taking long jumpers than Marvin (who’s shooting an awful percentage).
As long as he improves and he’s SMART with his selection, why strip the team of a weapon that is useful? Do you really believe Al Jefferson, Carlos Boozer, or Gasol (when Bynum is in the line up) wants to be dragged out to the perimeter to guard Smith? Nah. Cause if they have to respect his jumper, he can take them off the dribble and get easy layups and beat them to spots of the floor for easy jumpers.
Great blog.
hbcuclassics
November 19th, 2010
3:48 pm
Black Power Poll TM
Week 11 2010
1. Bethune (9)
2. S. Carolina St (13)
3. Albany St (5)
4. Grambling (22)
5. FAMU
6. Texas Southern
7. FVSU (22)
8. Morehouse (23)
9. Shaw (25)
10. Tuskegee
(#) – Top 25 Ranking Coaches Polls, FCS, AFCA
http://www.hbcuclassics.com
Astro Joe
November 19th, 2010
3:56 pm
I appreciate the hard work that he put into his jump shooting and I am glad that he is seeing the fruit of his labor. It would suck to work hard at something only to get the same poor results (see Shaq and his attempts to improve his free throw shooting). At the same time, this team has a greater skill gap in effective low-post scoring than it does in jump shooting. With both Al and Josh expanding their offensive arsenal away from the basket, it feels like we’re collectively moving in the wrong direction. But I guess “chicks love the long ball”, so a Karl Malone post-up game simply isn’t going to compare with drilling a 20-footer.
Jody
November 19th, 2010
3:56 pm
Great blog MC. I’ll say this. Even though Josh is only 24, his athleticism won’t last forever (especially since he’s already played six full seasons already). In order for him to become a truly complete player, he’s got to continue to develop the ability to be effective from the perimeter. When the athletic ability declines at some point, the ability to make shots from the perimeter will help his game remain relevant.
jg
November 19th, 2010
4:04 pm
why would one seek out dion glover to help with a jump shot. let’s see i could think of about 100 people right off the top of my head–and haven’t thought about dion glover since he left the team. wow!!!!
i love josh–but i’ve yet to watch a game and thought hey josh is open from the perimeter–get him the ball.
I played high school ball and my best friend and teammate was a force on the block–but he too liked to dabble around the 17 foot mark–i told him as the point guard that i didn’t care how open he was on the outside–he wasn’t getting the ball until he established him self down low. if were bibby, teague, crawford or for that matter anyone else on the team–josh wouldn’t get the ball on the perimeter unless it was a last resort. he’s improving but drew is right about one thing–he fires these shots at very inopportune times.
continue to work on this after practice and hire someone that could shoot in the first place and then listen–mark price was here for a few years–did he ever work on smoove’s shot–how about jj–what about al–his jumper is right on..props for working on it-it is better but it still has a long way to go.
MsDee
November 19th, 2010
4:04 pm
I love that Josh as improved on his game every single year he has been in the NBA!! Those kind of players dont come around very often so I am glad to have him on our team. Now if he could get Marvin to work on his jumper more, WE WILL BE COOKING WITH GAS!
ATL RAISED, INDY LIVING
November 19th, 2010
4:08 pm
Tuskegee sucks and morehouse is quite homosapien-ish….GO RATTLERS !!
Ken Strickland
November 19th, 2010
4:09 pm
Now this is the kind of flawed logic that burns me up. First, sports writers and fans alike said he needed to work on his ball handling and inside moves, which he did. Then they criticized and cringed everytime JSmith shot a jumper, and said he needed to develop a consistent and/or midrange jumpshot, which he’s done. Now these same people seem upset that he’s taking and making the very consistent, midrange jumpshot they insisted he needed to develop in the first place. WHERE’S THE DOGGONE LOGIC?
Didn’t most of these same people have simular issues AHorford after his rookie yr, and also suggested that he needed to develop an inside gm and midrange jumpshot? And didn’t he do just that, and earned All Star honors? Why is there so much concern about Smoove taking his gm to the next level and earning what is certain to be an All Star birth.
What we’re seeing is a perfect exampt of what I mention during training camp and preseason, and that’s ORGANIC GROWTH. While MBibby hasn’t gotten better, he’s certainly playing better. He knows he’s not going to get the preferential treatment from LDrew he got from Woodson, and be allowed to sink up both ends of the court without being held accountable. JTeague knows he won’t be snatched out of gms and cursed out everytime he makes a mistake, nor will he receive any DNP coaches decisions next to his name as punishment. He’ll continue to improve.
In the past we relied heavily on shooting 3’s, because the limited OFF we ran didn’t consistently create open scoring opportunities below the 3pt line. But with our new multiple OFF systems, everyone is consistently getting open scoring opportunities from the 3pt line in. All of these elements are contributing to our overall improvement, especially our new found ability to be more competitive and win consistently on the rd.
For the 1st time in 5-6yrs, teams can’t expect to win just by stopping JJ, JaCrawford or MBibby, or take advantange of them having subpar performances. We now have 5 starters, and the reigning 6th MOY, that can take control of a gm for varying periods of time.
niremetal
November 19th, 2010
4:14 pm
I miss a couple, I get frustrated and get down on myself and then it’s second-guessing.
My fear is that if this surge in accuracy is temporary, and he goes back to being ~25-30% from midrange again, his newfound confidence will lead him to keep jacking them up no matter how often he’s missing.
Ken Strickland
November 19th, 2010
4:19 pm
ATL RAISED-I attented Tennessee State, and I remember us playing FAMU in 1966 when QB Tillis, and RB’s Bob Hayes and Bobby Felts were your stars. That had to be the fastest backfield ever. Those were the days of HC Jake Gaither and his famous BLOOD, SWEAT AND TEARS teams.
After we defeated your butts, our fans left the stadium shouting “F–K YOU FAMU.
ClassicHawks
November 19th, 2010
4:27 pm
I’ve Been Saying It All Along, If Josh Can Get An Above Average Jump Shot, He Would Be An All-Star Every Year! Hands Down!! You Can See He Has Worked On It. The Easiest Thing To Work On And Become Better At Is A Jump SHot! I Really Like This Team! I Was Totally Wrong About LD. He Is Going To Be A Star Coach! Michael Jordan Didn’t Have A Jump Shot That Was That Great When He First Got Started. Josh Is Only 24 and I Promise You, It does Not Matter How Long You Have Been In The League, Confidence Grows Has You Age. LeBron Is Just Now Getting A Reliable Jump SHot! Think About That! GOOOOOO HAWKS!! TRADE JAMAL CRAWFORD, HE DOESN’T FIT L.D.’s SYSTEM AT ALL!!!!
doc
November 19th, 2010
4:48 pm
absolutely, if it is in the context and flow of the game.
MC you say; “he’s taking more of them in catch-and-shoot rhythm rather than stopping and thinking about it, which seems to throw him off.”
that has been my awareness of the situation was that if he didnt have time to think he was more apt to make them. he did shoot it well under pressure in those close game situations. i have never really thought his stroke was that bad only his head out there. you saw it at the line especially last year when he couldnt throw it in the ocean from the foul line at times.
MC, i dont know about you, it is a pleasure to read LD quotes. does LD make your job a lot easier with his quotes? he really articulates so well and gets his points across. it is truly fun to read his comments and assessments like those above. first of all regarding josh’s shot describing it in detail, then to point out the strategy of how it will open the game up for his type of offense and getting the ball to others.
nice stuff there.
guesswhosthis
November 19th, 2010
4:53 pm
how about some props for his free throw shooting improvement as well.as his perimeter game continues to improve, there is no telling how good he could really become. cant wait to s see garnetts face when smoove starts lighting him up.we’ll see who does the chest pounding in that game.
Fundamentals
November 19th, 2010
4:55 pm
niremental – that’s the test of Smoove’s growth. When they don’t fall, what will he do? I think the kid is maturing, he’s learning and he’s showing he worked hard this offseason. I’m proud of him. I too don’t want all the shots, but he needs to prove he has it to add that facet to his game. When they don’t fall he’s got to go inside or defer to other players. That’s the beauty of the new offense. Let the hot hand take the shots. Defer when it’s not your night.
Smoove’s got to prove he’s got the ability to make intelligent shots in the flow of the game or hold off when he’s cold. If he does he’s definitely an All Star!
Fundamentals
November 19th, 2010
4:58 pm
LD is firm in his thoughts and his desires for this team. He’s holding kids accountable, but praising them when they need it. He’s saying and doing everything we need. I’m hoping the team will continue to grow and gel. If they do LD will have nothing but good things to come.
Keep up the good work Hawks. Good things will come.
Grandad
November 19th, 2010
5:03 pm
Every shooter, just like hitters in baseball, need to constantly
keep their confidence up. Shooters can have a slump. As Yogi would
say; hitting [shooting] is 90% mental and the other half is physical.
My point is twofold;
(1) Josh has changed his shot form/mechanics. It is perceptible.
(2) Rhythm or “catch & shoot”, “stepping into shot” is requisite.
* both physical improvements.
My question is; why wouldn’t he, continue to take open shots?
J from the A
November 19th, 2010
5:25 pm
As long as he is taking smart, rhythm jumpers, I am all for Josh mixing it up.
Mixing it up, of course, implies he still plays around the rim a lot, either by playing
in the post or driving hard to the goal.
I’ve said since preseason (with the exception of, I think the 3rd game of the reg season*)
that I liked seeing him take a few jumpers a game. For the most part, he looked better
taking them, and if he could start hitting them with some consistency, it would open up
beautiful things for the Hawks.
* In that 3rd game (maybe it was the 4th cannot remember), he was taking too many
long jump shots that either were not in rhythm or came very early in the shot clock.
That is meant to be an inclusive ‘or’ as many of his shots were both not in rhythm and
early in the shot clock. Additionally, in the first few games, he wasn’t “mixing it up” enough.
I like the more balanced approach of the last few games.
J from the A
November 19th, 2010
5:28 pm
And this:
“That’s what really helps me open up my whole game, when I am able to knock them down, not just shooting them,” Josh said. “I’m pump-faking and driving to the hole. I’m such a good passer, I find my teammates open on the perimeter. It opens up the dribble drive and definitely opens the cuts for my teammates.”
That’s exactly what I’ve been saying … and in the last few games, this has come to fruition.
Bravesfan79
November 19th, 2010
5:32 pm
Nooooooooo dont tell Josh Smith hes a 70% 3 pt shooter because he might really think he is and start jacking up stupid shots again.
ignition
November 19th, 2010
5:51 pm
I don’t mind Josh shooting from the outside .. I mind him missing shoots..
As long as he is over 40% from the field I’m cool….
I would rather see him drive more and play in the paint but ever Great forward developed a great midrange.. If we could get a solid fade away game then he really cooking..
JustAThought
November 19th, 2010
6:34 pm
Chances are Josh will never be a better midrange shooter. His jump shooting mechanics is about the saddest I seen in a while. Unless he can change his mechanics, he won’t be getting better. and at this late stage in the game I would be will to bet against it.
Astro………I agree with you, it seems like everybody on this team is getting farther and farther away from the basket (like they don’t have enough jump shooters). It would be nice to see Josh work more down low (Al is going to need all the help he can get). I think with him shooting jumpers, it helps the other team more than it help the hawks IMO.
Section 303
November 19th, 2010
6:38 pm
Have to pat myself on the back a bit here. Called this after the open practice. Easy to see that Josh had improved his jumper. Not just because most of them were going in at the practice, either. His shot did not look so robotical (is that a word?). It was fluid. I think that is the biggest reason for his massive improvement shooting the jumpers.
However (in my best Steven A. Smith voice), he does settle too much. Instead of driving to the hoop, he will pull up and shoot the J. I still think Josh is at his best when he attacks the hoop. Good things usually happen.
I don’t have a problem with him shooting the jumpers. Just can’t let it make him lazy. And, if it is true what he said last week, about having the green light to shoot, I question whether he can handle that. I still do not think he is the sharpest knife in the drawer.
I do think he is the team MVP, so far, though.
Blast
November 19th, 2010
6:53 pm
Long as Josh continues to knock those jumpers down at a nice clip, he can shoot all he wants. I’ve been amazed at his and Al’s improvement. Also, teams are packing the lanes and Josh usually gets the ball as the clock winds down. In the flow of the game, he must take them.
And yes. Smoove’s free throws have much improved.
Go Hawks, hope I see this post posts. Love the motion offence, hate the new blog format.
Native Son
November 19th, 2010
7:05 pm
I’ve had this conversation with a friend of mind who just isn’t a fan of this guy. I’ve heard it all; his ugly shot; he’s immature; can’t dribble( I agree), and he whines a lot (again I agree) Trade Josh(I dis agree). I tell him; as long as he makes the shots, let him be. Sooner or later somebody is going to have to come and guard him, and that will open up the drive lane. At first I thought he was Dominique;” BUT NOW!!” I believe he’s a lot more than that. I am waiting on the day when he, and Dwight Howard team up again. Yeah, it’s going to happen.
L-QUE
November 19th, 2010
7:14 pm
I THINK JOSH SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPING HIS GAME JUMP SHOTS AND ALL HE IS MOVING INTO THE BEST POWER FORWARD BRACKET IN THE LEAGUE BOSTON ORLANDO MIAMI WOULD LOVE TO HAVE HIM D.HOWARD WORKING ON A JUMPER TO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM PLAYERS TAKEN OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL.GO BOY YOU LOOK GOOD TO ME
northcyde
November 19th, 2010
7:22 pm
The same logic that people apply to Joe Johnson and his cold shooting thus far, has to apply to Josh Smith and his hot shooting. And that logic is at some point, those guys will revert back to what they’ve historically been.
In November 2008, most Hawks fans thought that Marvin Williams had finally turned the corner as an outside shooter. After only attempting 10 threes ( making one ) in 2007 – 08, Marvin came out like he was the 2nd coming of Dale Ellis, making 47% of this threes that month ( 18 – 38 ).
Everyone was happy that Marvin had finally extended his range and become a great 3 point shooter.
The next month, he shoots 9 – 29 FG from three, and hasn’t come close to being a good 3 point shooter ever since.
Right now, LD is telling Josh the right things. And as long as Smith is shooting this well from the outside, he almost has to let him keep shooting.
But when the slump comes ( and we all know it’s coming ), I hope that Smith will take the ball to the hole, or set others up for open shots.
35% from 16 – 23 ft would be my stop sign number. If his outside shooting dipped at or below that number, it’s time for him to lay off the jumper and go to the hole.
MC noticed the correct thing, when he cited that Smith’s attempts at the rim had dipped a dramatic 2 shots per game. Drew’s offense doesn’t give Smith many ISO opportunities to take his man off the dribble, like the previous offense did. So that’s part of the reason for the shot decline.
As long as Drew stays on him about shot selection and being aggressive ( i.e. – attack the rim ), we should be OK.
lewis
November 19th, 2010
7:23 pm
If Al and Josh and Marvin could learn to draw fouls….
drmaryb
November 19th, 2010
7:30 pm
Shoot Em’ Up – Bang!
I say shoot ‘em till the sweat rolls of them balls! Organic Growth is the Hawks key to improving, I don’t see NOBODY walking through that door!
The Truth
November 19th, 2010
7:31 pm
““I got a lot of reps up,” Josh said. “We would be in there for about an hour and 15 minutes. What I concentrate most on is stepping in to every jump shot and being confident in myself and not getting discouraged”
This is what Marvin needs to do in the off-season. Spend time with a professional trainer instead of playing pick-up games with his dad in the game or his colleagues in NC Chapel Hill. His inconsistencies are a direct result of a lack of practice reps and time with a professional during the summer. Apparently, he tried to develop himself in an ad hock-way instead the right way. If Josh can take his game to another level using this approach, imagine what effect this same approach could have on Marvin who naturally has a “sweet stroke” anyway.
Marvin inconsistency is the reason he gets criticized so often. He keeps falling short of reaching his full potential instead of progressing. Josh Smith is testimony of what could happen when a player get serious about his profession and put in the work. I suspect Marvin is still behind the curve in this regard.
kwooden1
November 19th, 2010
7:40 pm
If he wants to be a true All-Star he has to make his jump-shots. To be great you have to be a complete player and jump-shooting is part of it. Josh will probably not keep shooting this well for the entire season and have some poor shooting games, but once people believe he can make that shot that will be all he needs. If he can keep making the jumpshot, he’ll basically be a 20 and 10 guy by the end of the season.
GO HAWKS
L-QUE
November 19th, 2010
7:56 pm
LEWIS IF OUR POINT WAS PENETRATING THEY CAN DRAW MORE FOULS .JOSH AND MARVIN WOULD BE IN THEIR THIRD OR FOURTH YEAR OUT OF COLLEGE. BUT THEY ARE .NBA VETS NOW WITH YEARS OF YOUTH LEFT TO DEVELOP. BUT THEY ARE LEARNING HOW TO WIN NOW. THAT MAKES IT A GREAT FUTURE FOR HAWKS BASKETBALL THEY ARE STARTING TO LEARN .THATS WHY ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP THE CORE TOGETHER
ant banks
November 19th, 2010
8:07 pm
i think that FREE THROW is more important than him makin’ jumpshots from 23ft out. if josh bangs in the post, like he is built to do, he will get fouled. if he ain’t shootin’ 85% from the line, wtf?
ATL FAN
November 19th, 2010
8:22 pm
YES, if we plan to go bigger in the future and deal Jamal, bench Marvin due to his continued poor performance, Smoove HAS to learn how to shoot, and he’ll improve over time.
Michael Cunningham
November 19th, 2010
8:26 pm
@ niremetalk: “My fear is that if this surge in accuracy is temporary, and he goes back to being ~25-30% from midrange again, his newfound confidence will lead him to keep jacking them up no matter how often he’s missing.”
this is a legit concern. he probably would have to miss a bunch before he can be convinced that it’s still not his shot. in the meantime, you can just hope he keeps making them at a good percentage.
Michael Cunningham
November 19th, 2010
8:29 pm
@doc: “MC, i dont know about you, it is a pleasure to read LD quotes. does LD make your job a lot easier with his quotes?”
he is very expansive with his answers. he doesn’t take offense when his methods or approach are questioned, he simply explains why he does what he does. he has been professional and responsive and that’s all i can ask.
hawks fan ddew
November 19th, 2010
9:25 pm
Who is our worst starter in the lineup? most would say marvin williams. we need a small forward. the answer: shan foster vanderbilt university 42 points in a game. he was drafted by the mavs and now plays internationally but i believe he can get the hawks to championship calibur
E43
November 19th, 2010
9:32 pm
YUP!!! feed him n fan him.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 19th, 2010
10:48 pm
As long as he’s making them, he should keep taking them. I am not at all surprised that his shooting efficiency is higher this year; he has shown a new wrinkle in his game in every season he’s been in the league. The important thing is that he uses jump shots as a PART of his game, and not the FOCUS of his game — and based on his quotes, he seems to understand this.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 19th, 2010
10:57 pm
“The same logic that people apply to Joe Johnson and his cold shooting thus far, has to apply to Josh Smith and his hot shooting. And that logic is at some point, those guys will revert back to what they’ve historically been.”
You are making the assumption that any statistically outlying stat is going to revert back to what it has historically been, regardless of the age or history of the player. Joe Johnson is 29 and has mostly been the exact same player statistically since he became a Hawk. The odds that any one statistical outlier is going to last for him are slim, and that’s backed up by history. Smoove is 24 and has improved one aspect or another of his game pretty much every season he’s been a Hawk. His 3-pointers attempted per game went from 1.3 to 0.1 last year; using your logic, one would have assumed after the first month of the season that he would continue jacking up 3’s and that stat would revert to its average. His rebounding average took a significant leap last year as well, and that stat didn’t revert either. Similarly, in 2009 he went from having a nonexistent post game to at least a passable one.
The man has clearly worked on his jumper. And to be honest, 15% of the season has been played already; I think this is a large enough sample size to say that even if he doesn’t continue shooting 70% eFG from 3, his shooting has clearly improved from abysmally pathetic to worthy of respect.
Hawks look for that first credible win | Atlanta Hawks: Fan Nest
November 20th, 2010
12:19 am
[...] he tries to do too much, Smith has managed to improve areas that seemed all but lost last season. Believe it or not, the man’s shooting stroke has improved, even if we still think we’re daydreaming after 12 games. The unexpected prowess from beyond [...]
Grandad
November 20th, 2010
12:48 am
JustAThought
“His jump shooting mechanics is about the saddest I seen in a while. Unless he can change his mechanics, he won’t be getting better. and at this late stage in the game”
Have you even watched a game this season?
He has totally changed his form & mechanics;
which by the way are quite sound.
Whomever you are, you are either misinformed,
antediluvian, or nescient.
Grandad
November 20th, 2010
12:57 am
nc
You know better.
According to your premise no-one can improve.
Eventually, one reverts to old habits.
Regardless of effort or education.
Nothing really ever changes.
Well, as a lifelong educator, I must strongly disagree!
I will say (what an old Coach once told me) that “any change
that is worthwhile comes over time”.
In other words;
change is a process.
lewis
November 20th, 2010
1:33 am
Here are my T-Mobile NBA 2011 All-Star Ballot Picks:
Western:
Pau Gasol LA Lakers Forward
Al Jefferson Utah Forward
Manu Ginobili San Antonio Guard
Chris Paul New Orleans Guard
Emeka Okafor New Orleans Center
Eastern:
Paul Pierce Boston Forward
Josh Smith Atlanta Forward
Joe Johnson Atlanta Guard
Rajon Rondo Boston Guard
Al Horford Atlanta Center
write in: paul millsap
i’ll be voting every day. west guards are subject to change. yesterday I had Camby as my center because the west center selection is horrid
superiorblogman
November 20th, 2010
2:18 am
This team is a farce just like Josh Smith’s jump shooting. I wonder if Monta Ellis would be available for a trade since most feel like we don’t need a traditional PG anyway. Really doesn’t matter since Sund and the ASG only really care about the bottomline which is money anyway. They had every chance to improve the team in the summer after signing JJ but chose not to and they will do the same during the season even though they have Jamal and Mo Evans expiring and the trade exception available. They will just lie like they like a mediocre team and sell you idiots a dream of making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. It’s crazy how the general public are such idiotic sheep. The TSA strips you, your spouses and kids like animals during every airport visit and you go for it. They will eventually get those chips into your bodies. I use to laugh when people talked about some magic chip now I see just how possible it is because the general public will go for anything. What idiots you people are. The Hawks are not Eastern Conference Finals material.
scrappyav
November 20th, 2010
3:46 am
7 of 15 = 46.6%, a good percentage for 3’s but certainly not 70%.
bjrufino
November 20th, 2010
4:39 am
Yes, Josh needs to hit those type of jumpers… but first be consistent is free throw shooting
vava74
November 20th, 2010
5:26 am
This blog keep getting better and better, now that we have the superioridiotman to guide us in the dark we don’t even have to watch games and think for ourselves!!!
Thank you superioridiotman for your unsurmountable wisdom!
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
5:47 am
“7 of 15 = 46.6%, a good percentage for 3’s but certainly not 70%.”
Effective FG% and regular FG% are not the same thing.
Here is how basketball-reference.com explains it:
Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).
doc
November 20th, 2010
8:33 am
thanks najeh for elucidating further on that one. folks dont understand it very well that, hypothetically, because i am not checking the math, 40% from three may be better than 55% from two.
JeJe.
November 20th, 2010
8:48 am
FIRE RICK SUND
mark
November 20th, 2010
9:20 am
josh smith is the bomb and so is al horford. we need to play better defense. go hawks
Guido
November 20th, 2010
9:50 am
Trade Marvin , 3 Mil trade exception and Thomas for Garcia and Dalembert
darrell starks
November 20th, 2010
9:52 am
As long josh play with in him self and under control there shouldn’t be a problem, and with marvin underachieving at SF josh should be starting at the 3 position.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!
darrell starks
November 20th, 2010
9:58 am
Josh would be hard 2 guard at the 3, all he have 2 do is post up the smaller forward in the box all day he may score 50points.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!
darrell starks
November 20th, 2010
10:02 am
TEAGUE AND TWIN SHOULD STARTE, AND BIBBY, MARVIN OFF THE BENCH.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!
darrell starks
November 20th, 2010
10:07 am
STARTER TEAGUE, JOE, JOSH, HORFORD, TWIN
BENCH BIBBY, JAMAL, MARVIN, POWEL, ZAZA
RESERVE MOE, JC2
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hawks need a center
November 20th, 2010
10:34 am
FIRE RICK SUND and MIKE CUNNINGHAM
Hawks need a center
November 20th, 2010
10:35 am
LEAVE SMOOVE ALONE
Sautee
November 20th, 2010
10:40 am
From the last blog…
Straw Man Alert:
Astro Joe said this:
“I thought that we were 8-4, running a great offense and destined for unprecedented success? Why do we need to revisit past drafts and roster moves when LD has corrected every previous mistake and healed all wounds?”
Now has ANYBODY on this blog said we were destined for “unprecedented success”? Perhaps I missed that.
Has ANYBODY on this blog said LD had “corrected every previous mistake and healed all wounds”? Perhaps I missed that, too.
No, that was just Astro throwing out another straw man.
What’s up, AJ? Why are you so down on LD if it was the HIRE you objected to and not the man himself? Shouldn’t this negativity be directed toward the ASG and not toward bloggers who like what Drew is doing? Are you somehow threatened by others approving of a hire you disapproved?
Your negativity toward LD makes no sense to me. Aren’t we on a pace to win 54 games? And weren’t you happy enough LAST YEAR to blast everyone else for not “enjoying what we have” when we won 53?
CajunStorm
November 20th, 2010
10:44 am
I too believe Josh should be our Starting Small Forward. That’s what he is best suiited for. His Post GAme is Non Existent against league Power Forwards. He would demolish other small forwards and AL would finally be able to demolish other Fours. I’d obviously look for a trade of Marvin and Jamal (attractive cap relief) for Kaman, Camby, Nene or similar big body or roll with what we got and slide ZAZA in to the starting 5 spot and increase our bench depth.
O'Brien
November 20th, 2010
11:33 am
Is there anyone who would object to Marvin Williams taking 3 pointers? He is our starting SF, and he has a nice shooting stroke.
However, the numbers dont lie. He is 2-14 (14%) this year, from behind the arc.
Josh Smith, on the other hand, is 7-15 (47%) from behind the line. Wow.
Speaking of marvin, does anyone think he has improved this year, compared to last?
ICECOLD
November 20th, 2010
12:04 pm
Josh smith could be in the hall of fame if he just keeps up the shooting as a regular.. it will definitely open up the rest of his game for him. in the old days, they use to let him literally sit up their at the top of the key wide open.. now somebody has to get on him and play honest defense.. if they play honest defense, that open up the back door cuts, the pick and rolls, more alley oops, and of course more assist for josh smith…
he also was averaging only 15 a game last year.. a few more jump shots, it would go up at least 6 or 7 more points a game.
also, by the all star break. if marvin is still not producing like he should, then josh can slide into that small forward position for good, al can slide to that power forward, then we can trade marvin , and jamal crawford for a true big men, between the ages of 26-29…
but overall josh smith is the key to the hawks getting better or getting worst.,.. that jump shot had to get better, or the offense couldnt open up like it suppose too.
ICECOLD
November 20th, 2010
12:05 pm
to me, this so called core should only consist of josh smith,. al horford , and joe johnson.. ( mike bibby and jamal too.. but they can be traded if it means getting a true true big man, a all star. ) everybody else can be traded and this team still have a shot at winning a title
Rev in Tampa
November 20th, 2010
1:08 pm
O’Brien, I have been pretty critical in the past of Marvin, but I have seen him playing with heart this season before the injury. Its not completely fair to single out his 3-pt % because he had a few really solid games before he got hurt. He held the starting SF in Philadelphia to 0 points. He also had a 22 point game against Cleveland.
I would love to see him make the strides that Al & Josh have made from year to year, but I haven’t seen it. Seems like he plays basketball over the summer but does not work on his game specifically (my impression). I believe he will be better simply because of the offensive & defensive changes that LD has brought to the team.
cp
November 20th, 2010
1:20 pm
I’m glad to see his hard work pay off. As long as he doesn’t settle for them all the time he should be fine…. I saw a youtube video of Dion Glover helping some other guys with their game. He was never the same player after those injuries. I remember him looking like a beast during the summer leagues but looking very ehhh during the regular season………And no O’Brien Marvin has not improved. He might be worse than what he once was.
Mz. Hawkdafied
November 20th, 2010
2:16 pm
Should Smoove really keep shooting jumpers?
YES!
Ramon
November 20th, 2010
2:28 pm
Well that’s it for trade scenarios including Jarrett Jack. He was just traded to NO Hornets in a 5 player deal.
atownhawk23
November 20th, 2010
2:29 pm
Whatever. Who cares about if he takes jumpshots. Just Win and VOTE JOE JOHNSON.
♥Joe, Marvin, Jamal, Josh P, Jeff, Jordan
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
2:51 pm
“thanks najeh for elucidating further on that one. folks dont understand it very well that, hypothetically, because i am not checking the math, 40% from three may be better than 55% from two.”
I just cut and pasted that definition from basketball-reference. I don’t think eFG% is a perfect stat, because a missed 3 and a missed 2 are not the same thing. Generally speaking, a missed 2 is more likely to be offensive rebounded and less likely to start a fast break for the other team.
So while a 70% eFG on 3’s sounds amazing, the fact is that on those 8 misses, the chances that the Hawks were able to get something positive out of that possession are less than they would be for any given missed 2.
All that said, 70% eFG from 3 is still very good, and as long as Josh uses it as just one of many parts of his game it can only benefit the Hawks.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
2:55 pm
And by the numbers, 40% from 3 would result in 24 points on 20 possessions while 55% from 2 would result in 22 points from 20 possessions. However, this doesn’t take in to account that the 2-point misses are more likely to be offensive rebounded, or that the 3 point misses are more likely to result in long rebounds that start fast breaks for the other team, or that the 2 point makes are more likely to create and-1 opportunities.
doc
November 20th, 2010
3:04 pm
najeh, actually i dont know if it as easy to say this:
Generally speaking, a missed 2 is more likely to be offensive rebounded and less likely to start a fast break for the other team.
from what i watch, when the three goes up there is more room and maybe a chance the guards get into the rebound category if they are quick enough. i think that explains how some point guards rack up more rebounds than expected like nash sometimes, deron w, rondo, and jason kidd who avg about as many rpg as marvin. the floor is more spaced, looser and long bounds go over the defender ready to gather one in. it happens a lot to us when we see this as josh and al h watch it go over their heads onto someone waiting on the wings. saw it over and over in the phoenix game and to some extent in the utah game and against the magic. the bigs are boxing out and get “boxed in” in a way.
is there data on this?
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
3:24 pm
Enter your comments here
Don V
November 20th, 2010
4:19 pm
Michael,
Your article made me curious. Whatever happened to Neon Dion Glover?
northcyde
November 20th, 2010
4:57 pm
@ Najeh . . . Niremetal and I went at it for about 3 days, starting on Hawksquawk and ending up on here, about that very issue. He took the simplified approach that 3 pt shot > 2 pt shot, so a player is better off taking a 3, than a long 2. A lot of stat people agree with Nire’s assessment.
But my take on it was that the eFG% deceives people. A 50% eFG shooter from 3 point range is actually a 33% FG shooter from that range.
So if given a chance on a particular possession to get the ball to a guy that shoots 45% from 16 – 23 feet, compared to a guy that shoots 50% eFG ( or 33% FG ) from three . . which guy do you want taking a shot on that particular possession?
And that’s why I’m almost against a guy like Marvin taking ANY threes, if he can’t even make 30% of them. I would much rather have the Marvin of 3 years ago, when he was a 45% FG shooter from 16 – 23 feet. At least then, I know he’ll have slightly below a 1 in 2 chance of making a long 2, instead of below a 1 in 3 chance of making a three.
******
@ doc . . . I think a study was done on that, and long 2s are rebounded less than 3 point shots. That still doesn’t mean that a guy who is a schizophrenic 3 point shooter, shoud have the green light to shoot 3s.
Jamal Crawford is the perfect example of this.
From 16 – 23 feet, he shoots 46% FG
From 3 point range, he shoots 50% eFG ( 33% FG )
That dude is damn near automatic from that 18 – 21 feet range, but he’ll continue to jack up threes, even when he’s cold. That’s why he’s been a notorious streak shooter throughout his career. That 50% eFG value does NOT mean thathe should opt to take the 3, before the long 2, regardless of the point value of the 3.
And this year, Joe Johnson is even worse. If you’re not making threes, stop taking so many. Botu guys are wasting possessions when they’re already 0 – 3 from 3, but still keep shooting them.
Rufus1
November 20th, 2010
5:22 pm
DID YOU NOTICE?????
Mavs
Did anyone notice…The Great and Brilliant owner Mark Cuban is paying Hayward 22mil(11mil salary and 11mil in Lux tax) a year not to start. The best center on the team is going to be a free agent next year…Wow.
Heat
The Hawks have 2 PF better than Bosh for 1/2 the price…What would the Heat give for the Hawks BIGS.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
5:28 pm
“He took the simplified approach that 3 pt shot > 2 pt shot, so a player is better off taking a 3, than a long 2. ”
I actually agree that a player is better off taking a 3 than a long 2, since long 2s come with a lot of the same problems as 3s. I just don’t think that a 3 is better than any 2, which based on your post is what niremetal said. I think in pretty much any situation, a 2 point shot within 15 feet is better than a 3.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
5:36 pm
“najeh, actually i dont know if it as easy to say this:
Generally speaking, a missed 2 is more likely to be offensive rebounded and less likely to start a fast break for the other team.
is there data on this?”
I made that statement mainly based on what I have observed and what I have heard stat people say, but I’m sure there is evidence for this on 82games or basketball-reference or somewhere like that. As an example, I looked up stats for the Nash-era Phoenix Suns, and in nearly every season since they instituted the 3-heavy 7 seconds or less offense, they have taken more 3s than their opponents while taking fewer field goals overall. I think this backs up the idea of missed 3s being less likely to result in an offensive rebound at least somewhat; the propensity for the Suns to take 3s reduces the number of offensive rebounds they have a chance to get, and thereby means that most other teams will take more shots than them. Again, I don’t have hard evidence to back this up, mainly just observation, but I’m sure some of the more statistically inclined people here know where to prove or disprove this.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
5:42 pm
“But my take on it was that the eFG% deceives people. A 50% eFG shooter from 3 point range is actually a 33% FG shooter from that range.
So if given a chance on a particular possession to get the ball to a guy that shoots 45% from 16 – 23 feet, compared to a guy that shoots 50% eFG ( or 33% FG ) from three . . which guy do you want taking a shot on that particular possession? ”
Exactly… the problem with niremetal’s argument is that comparing eFGs makes the assumption that both teams are taking the same number of shots. If taking more 3s results in fewer overall shot attempts, like I think it does, then the team that attempts fewer 3s will still score more points if they have sufficiently more shot attempts overall, even if they shoot a lower eFG%.
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
5:43 pm
^^ That should say “the team that attempts fewer 3s will still score more points in one game if they have sufficiently more shot attempts overall”. Games are limited by time, not by shots attempted; a team that puts up more shots at a lower eFG can score more points within a fixed time period than a team that puts up fewer shots at a higher eFG.
northcyde
November 20th, 2010
5:49 pm
To me, it’s always depended on who is taking the shot, and what the game situation is.
If the Hawks have been outscored 8 – 0, and we need a basket to stop the run, and we can’t get ( or won’t look for ) anything close, which shot would you rather see if we have Jamal – JJ – Marvin – Smith – Horford on the floor?
- an open Crawford three
- an open Smith three
- an open 20 foot jumper from Marvin
- an open 18 foot jumper from Horford
- JJ taking a 17 footer off the dribble
Of course, you have other variables, like if a guy is hot or cold or not. But possessions at certain points in NBA games are precious.
Which shot would you rather see?
niremetal
November 20th, 2010
5:50 pm
To clarify, Najeh – I never ever said that a 3 is better than any 2. Just that a 3 is better than a long 2. My preference would be At Rim > In Paint > 3-ball > long 2.
Not incidentally, teams are less likely to get an offensive rebound from a long 2 than they are from 3-land. So even in that respect, the 3 is better than a long 2:
http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/03/29/rebounding-by-shot-location/
niremetal
November 20th, 2010
6:00 pm
And if you want the full argument thread on Hawksquawk, so you can see the full argument (where northcyde shouted into the wind against me, dlpin, and a few others), go here:
http://www.hawksquawk.net/community/index.php/topic/342466-why-wont-woodson-make-smoove-quit-shooting-jumpshots/
Anyway, I’m not sure if northcyde was intentionally misstating my argument so that he could knock down a straw man, or if he just forgot. The context of the argument was that Josh had stopped taking 3s but was taking more long 2s than before. I brought up the now widely recognized view that the midrange jumper (ie from ~13 feet out to the 3 line) is the least efficient shot in the game, since the accuracy of those shots is only slightly better than on 3s but are worth 33% less. There are countless statistical and logical bases for that argument, and there truly are not many people who follow the game closely who don’t recognize that the midrange shot is the least desirable shot for an offensive player to take.
niremetal
November 20th, 2010
6:08 pm
For more statistical data on this, see here:
http://82games.com/nbashots.htm
Like the OReb chart, that link was provided by dlpin during our back-and-forth with Northcyde. The short version is that these are the FG% and eFG% from each range:
FG%
0-5ft – 57%
06–11ft- 37%
12-17ft- 38%
18-line- 39%
3 point shots – 35%
in eFG% terms:
0-5ft – 57%
06–11ft- 37%
12-17ft- 38%
18-line- 39%
3 point shots – 52%
So really, every shot outside somewhere between 6 and 11 feet is less efficient on a points-per-possession basis than the 3 point shot. Obviously, however, that does not take into account likelihood of drawing a foul, likelihood of getting an offensive rebound, or other related factors. That’s why I place the “line” for when the shot becomes a “poor” one back to about 13 feet instead of 6 feet. I think anywhere outside of about 13 feet, you’re going to be out of position for the OReb, are not likely to draw a foul, and are still shooting only a very slightly lower absolute FG% than you would if you took a 3, which is worth 50% more.
There, I’ll leave this be again for now…
O'Brien
November 20th, 2010
6:20 pm
Rev, cp,
A lot of fans wondered if Marvin would be better under LD than he was under Woody. So far, Marvin had one really good game, and he has made a couple nice plays in other games.
But overall, I havent seen that much improvement from him compared to last year. He does a good job defending his position, but I would like to see him become a lock down defender.
So Jarrett Jack will be CP3’s backup? Thats a good PG combo. And I see our old draft pick David Andersen is on the move again.
northcyde
November 20th, 2010
6:33 pm
Yeah, that’s the link that he posted last year.
I do think there is a logical explanation as to why long 2’s aren’t rebounded as frequently as 3s.
When you talk about 3s, those shots are mainly taken by guards and small forwards. But the long 2, especially from 16 – 20 feet, are also taken by power forwards ( like Horford and Smith ), and by a few centers.
When that shot is missed by a power forward or center, you have one less big man around the rim to rebound the miss. On a 3, both the PF and C are more than likely going to be around the rim to rebound a miss from a guard or the small forward.
That’ll be something to look at tonight. When the guards take a midrange shot and miss, does it get rebounded more than when a big takes a midrange shot, but miss?
Najeh Davenpoop
November 20th, 2010
7:48 pm
“To clarify, Najeh – I never ever said that a 3 is better than any 2. Just that a 3 is better than a long 2. My preference would be At Rim > In Paint > 3-ball > long 2.”
That makes sense. I can agree with that.
jlewis
November 20th, 2010
11:10 pm
Everyone has what they wanted, ball sharing, less Joe and Jamal, but its translating into less quality wins. Josh looks better, but if he’s your main guy, we are in TROUBLE. JJ is not gettin the ball in his spots in the new offense, thats not a good thing. LD needs to fix this, soon.