Atlanta Hawks: Why ASG wants J.J. back (even for the max) UPDATE: Still waiting
UPDATE: Still no word on an agreement between J.J. and the Hawks. There’s been no indication that a deal won’t happen soon, with J.J.’s agent telling Marc Berman of the New York Post: “[H]e’s comfortable in Atlanta, happy, and they can offer him one more year.”
If J.J. likes the team and the money, all that’s left for the Hawks is to wait . . .
Talked to a person with insight into ASG’s rationale for offering J.J. a max contract. Basically, the plan is for the Hawks to re-sign J.J. and then add the necessary pieces to make them a true contender in the Eastern Conference.
Letting Joe leave would mean the Hawks would be worse in the short term, and the Hawks aren’t prepared to take that step back (the sign-and-trade options aren’t so appealing as to assure the team would maintain or improve). Once they made that philosophical decision, they took a look at the market for J.J. It quickly became clear that a few teams with cap space were ready to offer him the non-Bird max, so the Hawks made an aggressive play to re-sign him and hope that pays off with a commitment from J.J. soon.
Atlanta’s basketball people recognize that re-signing J.J. alone isn’t enough to improve the team (because, well, it’s basically the same team) and ASG is not opposed to exceeding the luxury-tax threshold to sign the right player. That’s a good thing since they don’t have much choice. If J.J. re-signs, the Hawks would have about $68 million in committed salaries when including Chill’s $4.8 million qualifying offer and Jordan Crawford’s rookie-scale salary. The NBA projects the tax threshold will be about $68 million, so the Hawks would be bumping up against it with only 10 11 players under contract.
That leaves a minimum of three two open roster spots. If Chills signs an offer sheet (Washington is interested) and the Hawks don’t match it (they haven’t ruled out matching or working out a sign-and-trade) then the committed salaries would be roughly $63 million with four three open roster spots. The Hawks want a bona fide center and ASG is open to using the mid-level exception to sign one. They also will explore trade opportunities, though there haven’t been any serious discussions about potential moves because Rick Sund is focused on J.J. right now.
Here is where the draft ties into ASG’s thinking. The Hawks traded down with the belief that Jordan Crawford (he needs a nickname, right?) would still be there at No. 27. They liked Kentucky’s Daniel Orton and would have taken him with the No. 31 pick but he went 29th to the Magic and they didn’t like any of the other centers available. So they sold the No. 31 pick for close to $3 million, and that money could help offset their potential luxury tax bill and also the hit they would take for missing out on the tax escrow rebate.
ASG rejects the view expressed by David Aldridge and others that a potential sell of the team influenced the max offer to J.J. Michael Gearon Jr. has insisted that he is not interested in selling his share. It’s expected that Steve Belkin eventually, finally, mercifully will be bought out and another investor will be sought. The Hawks are said to be one of the few teams with no debt on their franchise.
So a future sell of the team is not what’s driving the decision to max out J.J., according to the person privy to ASG’s plans. It’s about the belief that re-signing J.J., adding more pieces and improving their tactics and approach under L.D. will allow the Hawks to finally take the next step. As far as I know, all the speculation about using J.J. in a sign-and-trade is off base, perhaps a way for skeptical observers to rationalize what they see as a bad contract offer from the Hawks. It’s always possible, I guess, but I haven’t heard anything that leads me to believe they want to send J.J. along (a sign-and-trade obviously would require his permission) and everything to suggest they really want him back.
I understand why many of my blog people (and it seems pretty much everyone on the Interwebs) believe this was a bad move. As I said before, Hoopinion, Peachtree Hoops and HawksStr8Talk all offered reasonable, clear-headed explanations as to why they feel the Hawks should move on without J.J. if his price is too high. I’m just trying to offer you as much insight as possible into why ASG did made the decision to offer the max.
If J.J. re-signs and the plan doesn’t work, with J.J.’s contract becoming a burden and their other moves also falling flat, then the Hawks will be judged harshly.
MC
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444 comments Add your comment
Sautee
July 2nd, 2010
4:38 pm
Truth-serum,
So wait, you ASKED me to respond to your questions, but now you RUN from mine?
Here’s the question again, if you please:
Since Brook Lopez has, like Al Horford, never been named to the All-Star team, the All-NBA team, or the All-Defensive team, would you turn down a chance to acquire him?
I’ll wait.
Sautee
July 2nd, 2010
4:42 pm
Actually, I posed that question incorrectly. Let me do this again:
Truth-serum,
Since Brook Lopez has, like Al Horford, never been named to the the All-NBA team, or the All-Defensive team, would you turn down a chance to acquire him?
I LIKE TOAST
July 2nd, 2010
4:44 pm
so shaq a hawk i wish it were 10 years ago then i would be excited.
Truth-Serum
July 2nd, 2010
4:45 pm
Using strong words like ” you hate horford” are very childish and rather than address reality this is the type of responses I get from you. Ive had great exchange with people all morning long with people who disagree with my premises with out the downward spiral that always happens when engage in conversation with you.
At this time I will invoke the quality saving “Big Ray Rule” which is clear, if you recognize that conversation with a blogger is always negative and confrontational. Then ignore that blogger and move on to more rewarding conversation with other bloggers. – Hence no matter how you twist what I say or take it out of context, no matter how you attack me personally rather than the premises I present, I wont be responding to you. In fact I will save a copy of this blog and posted periodically. I have no interest in having conversation with you on the level you come from.
have a nice day
GeeMack
July 2nd, 2010
4:47 pm
Amare is close to a deal with the Knicks.
O'Brien
July 2nd, 2010
4:48 pm
TS,
Defense wins championships. No argument there.
Nate ArchiBALL
July 2nd, 2010
5:02 pm
@Grandad – Don’t worry, what’s posted on the blog stays on the blog.
jhan
July 2nd, 2010
5:06 pm
I’m no math wizard but:
2008-2009 – Horford made 312 baskets.
2009-2010 – Horford made 467 baskets.
467 – 312 = 155
312 x .5 = 156
That looks a lot like a 50% increase to me.
ryan
July 2nd, 2010
5:13 pm
What about Emaka Okafor or Tyson Chandler could we trade Josh Childress or Marvin Williams to get one of those guys.
Big Ray
July 2nd, 2010
5:14 pm
Jhan ,
Doesn’t take a math wizard. Just somebody with sense. Lacking in some parts…
Big Ray
July 2nd, 2010
5:18 pm
ryan
I like the way you think…
Melvin
July 2nd, 2010
5:19 pm
TS and Sautee Al Horford debate may extend after he retires…
doc
July 2nd, 2010
5:32 pm
truth, yes you can feel free to disagree whenever. nothing personal here. i did say i agree with you in principal but not in reality. for all your truth you are probably as hard pressed as i am to find the TRUE legit center out there that is obtainable and would do a better job than al h. again i have brought up the name of al j who truly may be available.
so in truth i would like to hear who you think is truly available. in the mean time i say that as soft as our underbelly is in defending the cutting/penetrating guards and defending the perimeter i like the idea of a guard with an attitude and a big who can severely punish the point guard that tries to take it to the hole on us without getting a flagrant every time, like zaza happens to get.
as for your point here:
.” I dont know of any efficient guard you can keep out of the paint.”
i can give you one in the name of mike bibby. the guy cant even make lay ups anymore. you really dont want to replace him? hmmm
Jeff D.
July 2nd, 2010
5:32 pm
darrell starks, sure that would be a great trade. why don’t yo go ahead and hit the accept button and add those guys to your fantasy team.
Steve
July 2nd, 2010
5:42 pm
Espn reports Joe offered max deal by Miami, leaning ATL however. If Amare signs his gargantuan deal, and with what Gay got, Joe is really not overpriced in this market. And contrary to many, I think he will age well. Look at Grant Hill at 37, D Fish at 35 and Nash at 36. Boston and the Mavs are signing Pierce and Dirk through their 36th b’day at 20+ mill per year. Joe’s contract expires when he is 34. And to this point in his career, he has been a fitness freak – that does help in most cases. Hey, even Ray Allen is wanting, and will probably get, 12-15m per for 3 years – and he’s 34 right now! And not worth that money in my opinion. I’d be getting some of these kids like Beasley and Yi – there trying to give them away, and they look to have big futures.
truthspitter
July 2nd, 2010
5:46 pm
Hopefully Marvin Williams and Zaza just quit or get traded ASAP
Grandad
July 2nd, 2010
5:47 pm
On -Hatter’s- behalf;
He’s absolutely correct in principle.
We need a BIG big.
I have said from day # 1, that I’ve been on this blog,
that we need a defensive presence, @ the rim, a goal-tender.
TS even said the other nite that he didn’t necessarily
need to be a scorer.
I contend that he doesn’t even need to start.
But perhaps play starter min./as did Jamal in the back-ct.
Now, he [TS] just needs to come around & realize Al’s true value.
bigdave
July 2nd, 2010
5:47 pm
lomao @ the NJ Nets.
“we wanna be more like a soccer team”.
lets wins some more games first guys.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
5:47 pm
” If Amare signs his gargantuan deal, and with what Gay got, Joe is really not overpriced in this market.”
Agree. The crazy long-term deals being handed out this offseason to other players — this includes 5 years $30 million for Channing Frye as much as it includes max deals for Gay and Amare — also means it may not be as hard as we think to trade Joe a few years down the road if necessary.
Clyde
July 2nd, 2010
5:58 pm
I think I’ve been banned from the blog. My last 3 posts have been eaten up.
Clyde
July 2nd, 2010
6:02 pm
Milwaukee added Jerome Jordan, Larry Sanders and Sean Williams to their summer league squad. I think either one of these players would be an upgrade over Zaza, Joe Smith, Jason Collins, or Randolph Morris.
JeJe
July 2nd, 2010
6:10 pm
How the hell is Cleveland only talking to LBJ tomorrow?
JeJe
July 2nd, 2010
6:13 pm
If a team is over the cap after resigning a player, are they free to spend as much money as they want, even though they are cognizant of the luxury tax? So, if Cleveland resigns LBJ, are they free to spend as much money to add other players since they passed the Birds Right hurdle or whatever it is that resigning players gets you through?
doc
July 2nd, 2010
6:14 pm
g dad on hatters behalf, he forgot that i was agreeing with him and stated it first, then i took the rational logical approach what he wants isnt out there so what is next? i havent seen alonzo cross the waiver wires, that type of guy isnt out there. better point guards are. wow, even a biedrens and ellis for bibby, mo and marvin would be cool; maybe not the BIG big we want but a very complimentary player to al h and josh. who could play 3 then? problems problems …. WWSD?
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
6:20 pm
“If a team is over the cap after resigning a player, are they free to spend as much money as they want, even though they are cognizant of the luxury tax? So, if Cleveland resigns LBJ, are they free to spend as much money to add other players since they passed the Birds Right hurdle or whatever it is that resigning players gets you through?”
No. If they are over the cap, they can only spend money using the mid-level exception and the biannual exception. Mid-level exception is worth about $6 million per year, and biannual is worth (if I’m not mistaken) about $2-3 million. Each team has one mid-level and one biannual exception. I’m guessing from the name that if you use the biannual exception one year you can’t use it the next year.
Those of you who know this stuff better than me, if I left anything out feel free to add on to this.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
6:22 pm
Re-signing your own players using Bird Rights is the only thing that is independent of a team’s cap situation. A team can be a billion dollars over the cap and still re-sign their own Bird Rights players. This is why Cleveland, despite being over the cap, can offer LeBron a max deal. If Cleveland wants to sign anyone who wasn’t a Cav last year, they have to use one of the exceptions.
James B.
July 2nd, 2010
6:33 pm
Now that the return of JJ to ATL is a done deal, don’t be surprised to see the Hawks trade Josh Smith to Denver for Nene Hilario.
Denver needs a PF because Kenyon Martin is a shadow of his former self, want Biedrins from Golden State even though they already have 3 Centers (Nene, the Birdman and Johan Petro) on the roster, and have to show Carmelo Anthony that they are trying to improve the roster.
Nene is a relatively young, legitimate-sized Center who plays solid defense, rebounds well and has strong offensive skills. His game/stats have improved every year and his acquisition allows Horford to move to PF.
I’m not saying–I’m just saying don’t be surprised.
doc
July 2nd, 2010
6:35 pm
najeh that sounds like what you said the last time.
seriously, nire and manny t have got this stuff down and i think that is what is out there to take to round out the roster. then there is the old man “restrictions” that dont cost us or something like where the league pays the freight on the guy that which we used last year to fluff out our roster to save money because management didnt quite think we were there yet. a quality big at mle our legit bench player might have done more than put us into luxury last year. maybe that is the lesson they are working under now. sad we were right there, but i really dont remember if there was value in a big to spend mle on anyway.
James B.
July 2nd, 2010
6:36 pm
For the record–i’ve not read or heard anything confirming the JJ signing but let’s be real. Any other teams max offer is still $20 million less than what the Hawks have offered and no one is going to leave $20 million on the table. So, IMO, JJ will be back with the Hawks.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
6:42 pm
Apparently Dwyane Wade is leaning towards signing with Chicago, which of course would take him out of the Hawks’ division.
I MUS WRITE
July 2nd, 2010
6:45 pm
Intresting ….Shaq maybe coming to town,just got a little info from a really good source. Shaq would work for me,all we would is 20 minutes a game,Clog the middle and rebound,done deal.
Melvin
July 2nd, 2010
6:51 pm
Imus,
I saw a mention of Shaq following a tweet from Sekou to Dennis Scott twitter page. 3D made mention on the 2stews radio show today that the Hawks and Celtics are in the lead for his services….
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
6:53 pm
Well, that’s one way to boost ticket sales I guess…
Melvin
July 2nd, 2010
6:58 pm
IMUS,
With intel like that, you must be trying to get your SuperSlyAgent nickname back…
ryan
July 2nd, 2010
7:04 pm
If the Hawks got Shaq that would be great way to sell ticket and jerseys .
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
7:18 pm
At least we know someone in ATL is thinking big. Buy out Belkin’s share, Tip!
i_am_soulstar
July 2nd, 2010
7:20 pm
Melvin and Imus,
Would one of you post a link on the Shaq rumor?
i_am_soulstar
July 2nd, 2010
7:35 pm
drmaryb,
His age and frequent injuries concern me. But if we could just use him for the playoffs, I think it might be a great investment.
i_am_soulstar
July 2nd, 2010
7:37 pm
But Cleveland paid him 20 million for 1 year, I wonder what the Hawks would be willing to put on the table. His value’s definitely not that high these days, but he’ll still command a substantial amount of salary.
i_am_soulstar
July 2nd, 2010
7:49 pm
drmaryb,
Would you take David Lee over Shaq?
(and i’m a guy)
Michael
July 2nd, 2010
8:00 pm
Other teams were prepared to offer the non-Bird max, so Hawks made max offer?
Uh, ever heard of Lemmings or the phrase “If everyone else jumped off a cliff, would you jump too? ”
If some other team was ignorant enough to offer a non-stud player a max contract, let them, don’t try to show you’re even more ignorant than they are (most league execs and agents already know Atlanta management and ownership is ignorant if not completely brain-dead).
Joe Johnson is NOT worth max deal. He is not the leader and stud you build a team around. JJ is worth about half that. 6 yrs and $70 or $80 million might work, but this is nuts.
Anyone who is a Hawks fan, be prepared to start rooting for team B as the Hawks will be stuck in mediocrity (sounds familiar, can you say 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s?) Idiots running the asylum. So sad.
drmaryb
July 2nd, 2010
11:15 pm
Grand-Daddy
That’s just somebody’s kid who got left at the bus-stop! Pockets turned inside out, somebody took his lunch money. I’ll be glad when the yellow bus starts running again .. So, we can get back to intellectual
blogging.
I’m ready for the FA period tp end, so we can get to Summer League Play and some
Football baby! I’m ready to see some “Matty Ice”. Baby!
Supposedly LeBron will announce his decision on Monday, I sure hope so – so the damn can break open.
I admire the teams that can chew gum and walk at the same time. You know, the ones
that are making their moves regardless.
D21
July 3rd, 2010
5:42 am
“James B.
July 2nd, 2010
6:36 pm
For the record–i’ve not read or heard anything confirming the JJ signing but let’s be real. Any other teams max offer is still $20 million less than what the Hawks have offered and no one is going to leave $20 million on the table. So, IMO, JJ will be back with the Hawks.”
Come on, it’s not hesitate between 1M and 1+20=21M
We are talking about 120M and 100M.
We are not talking about 120M, or maybe more chances at winning a title and only a 1M contract
We are talking about 120M, or 100M and more chance at winning a contract.
In this case, you can leave 20M on the table, like if you really wants to win, you can take “only” 15M, and leave 5M to use for add another player. And you still get 15M, with more chance to win. It’s better than getting 20M and never reach a ECFinals.
If even the fans act like that, then I understand why the guys are all on money and don’t care anything else.
“Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010 2:36 pm
It looks like the Knicks are about to trump the Hawks when it comes to offering questionable contract. 5 years and $100 million for a guy who has already had two major surgeries, can’t play defense, or rebound is just insane. Joe’s deal doesn’t look all that out of proportion now.”
Why do everybody always use the bad examples ?
In a smart world, you take good examples, not bad example to justify your work.
This not because some are stupid that it allows you to be stupid too. It just gives you the fact that you’re not alone as stupid guy.
We should look at good contract, because there are some good contracts, where players are not underpaid or overpaid, and where team can still use money to improve.
Chauncey Billups come to mind.
He signed at 31 for 60M/5yrs.
Joe is already 29, and the offer is 120M/6yrs. Does he have more impact than Billups ? No
Garnett, who have a title, took a pay cut to play with two all-stars. It’s just an example of where players don’t eat all that they could get like this 120M offer, and strangely they both Billups and Garnett reached the NBA Finals.
Gerald Wallace is at 10.5M/yr , is Joe worth twice the salary of Wallace ? No
Last point, the town : it’s NYK giving 100M to Stoudemire, they can, it’s a big market.
Even while loosing nearly all their games these last seasons, being in Luxury tax zone, they are making benefits.
It’s not ATL.
We have to come back to a smart world, not use bad example or examples from team with huge market difference.
The Next Move | Soaring Down South | An Atlanta Hawks blog
July 3rd, 2010
11:43 am
[...] Michael Cunningham of the AJC pointed out a couple of days ago that the Hawks are willing to add the necessary pieces to make them a contender in the [...]