Atlanta Hawks: Why ASG wants J.J. back (even for the max) UPDATE: Still waiting
UPDATE: Still no word on an agreement between J.J. and the Hawks. There’s been no indication that a deal won’t happen soon, with J.J.’s agent telling Marc Berman of the New York Post: “[H]e’s comfortable in Atlanta, happy, and they can offer him one more year.”
If J.J. likes the team and the money, all that’s left for the Hawks is to wait . . .
Talked to a person with insight into ASG’s rationale for offering J.J. a max contract. Basically, the plan is for the Hawks to re-sign J.J. and then add the necessary pieces to make them a true contender in the Eastern Conference.
Letting Joe leave would mean the Hawks would be worse in the short term, and the Hawks aren’t prepared to take that step back (the sign-and-trade options aren’t so appealing as to assure the team would maintain or improve). Once they made that philosophical decision, they took a look at the market for J.J. It quickly became clear that a few teams with cap space were ready to offer him the non-Bird max, so the Hawks made an aggressive play to re-sign him and hope that pays off with a commitment from J.J. soon.
Atlanta’s basketball people recognize that re-signing J.J. alone isn’t enough to improve the team (because, well, it’s basically the same team) and ASG is not opposed to exceeding the luxury-tax threshold to sign the right player. That’s a good thing since they don’t have much choice. If J.J. re-signs, the Hawks would have about $68 million in committed salaries when including Chill’s $4.8 million qualifying offer and Jordan Crawford’s rookie-scale salary. The NBA projects the tax threshold will be about $68 million, so the Hawks would be bumping up against it with only 10 11 players under contract.
That leaves a minimum of three two open roster spots. If Chills signs an offer sheet (Washington is interested) and the Hawks don’t match it (they haven’t ruled out matching or working out a sign-and-trade) then the committed salaries would be roughly $63 million with four three open roster spots. The Hawks want a bona fide center and ASG is open to using the mid-level exception to sign one. They also will explore trade opportunities, though there haven’t been any serious discussions about potential moves because Rick Sund is focused on J.J. right now.
Here is where the draft ties into ASG’s thinking. The Hawks traded down with the belief that Jordan Crawford (he needs a nickname, right?) would still be there at No. 27. They liked Kentucky’s Daniel Orton and would have taken him with the No. 31 pick but he went 29th to the Magic and they didn’t like any of the other centers available. So they sold the No. 31 pick for close to $3 million, and that money could help offset their potential luxury tax bill and also the hit they would take for missing out on the tax escrow rebate.
ASG rejects the view expressed by David Aldridge and others that a potential sell of the team influenced the max offer to J.J. Michael Gearon Jr. has insisted that he is not interested in selling his share. It’s expected that Steve Belkin eventually, finally, mercifully will be bought out and another investor will be sought. The Hawks are said to be one of the few teams with no debt on their franchise.
So a future sell of the team is not what’s driving the decision to max out J.J., according to the person privy to ASG’s plans. It’s about the belief that re-signing J.J., adding more pieces and improving their tactics and approach under L.D. will allow the Hawks to finally take the next step. As far as I know, all the speculation about using J.J. in a sign-and-trade is off base, perhaps a way for skeptical observers to rationalize what they see as a bad contract offer from the Hawks. It’s always possible, I guess, but I haven’t heard anything that leads me to believe they want to send J.J. along (a sign-and-trade obviously would require his permission) and everything to suggest they really want him back.
I understand why many of my blog people (and it seems pretty much everyone on the Interwebs) believe this was a bad move. As I said before, Hoopinion, Peachtree Hoops and HawksStr8Talk all offered reasonable, clear-headed explanations as to why they feel the Hawks should move on without J.J. if his price is too high. I’m just trying to offer you as much insight as possible into why ASG did made the decision to offer the max.
If J.J. re-signs and the plan doesn’t work, with J.J.’s contract becoming a burden and their other moves also falling flat, then the Hawks will be judged harshly.
MC
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Big Z for the MLE? | Soaring Down South | An Atlanta Hawks blog
July 1st, 2010
11:08 pm
[...] Cunningham over at the AJC is reporting that when the Hawks made the commitment to sign Joe Johnson, they committed to building a team around him that can contend for a championship soon. Here, it [...]
Adair
July 1st, 2010
11:10 pm
“northcyde, both najeh and i on different blogs about a couple hours apart independently said about the same thing exactly, jj by the numbers is in the range of the 1a stars if he got to the line as much as the 1a protected players do. maybe the max contract will allow the refs to see him in a different light. his numbers would easily push to 25 ppg if he got the type of calls d wade, kobe or the queen get, easy, because all of a sudden guys have to give him some more space and he has 4 points a night more in free throws made not attempted. maybe stern will send out his posse to see it happen.”
Yea, because that’s how it works. Or maybe Joe Johnson just isn’t that good?
Jody
July 1st, 2010
11:10 pm
Actually, this is the first time I’ve heard the Hawks mention they a want for a “starting-caliber” center. Last year, Sund felt that Horford was a center and said as much. It seems the series with the Magic changed that thinking. It really should have been clear from day one that Horford was/is a power forward.
JeJe
July 1st, 2010
11:13 pm
This isn’t that difficult. If you resign Joe, you have about 10M to sign FA’s before the Lux Tax (not sure on a definite figure). That’s plenty to sign our scrub bench players and get a Haywood (would have to go a bit into tax to get him)
tckr83
July 1st, 2010
11:18 pm
Big Z isn’t taking the Hawks to the promise land…
There’s gonna be a trade with one of the starting five, probably two of them.
JSS
July 1st, 2010
11:26 pm
I really don’t think they’re looking at Ilgauskas and Haywood (simply because I think he is going to get a huge inflated deal somewhere) anymore unless the other UFA simply aren’t available.
drmaryb
July 1st, 2010
11:33 pm
From 1040 PM down the list:
Great posting! Very smooth, insightful, thoughtful and most of all constructive!
Thanks.
I Heart Atlanta
July 1st, 2010
11:35 pm
Hoopshype and rotoworld say we are shopping marvin
Grandad
July 1st, 2010
11:42 pm
Any & All who fall for the propaganda
-released-
by our Northern oppressors whose
-media outlets-
just happen to be centered in:
the notheast, e g:
*New York & New Jersey, i e,
[espn]
* & Chicago.
**Propaganda, such as, the Hawks signing Joe, = worst contract
in NBA history. Now, who is hurt by Joe signing with the Hawks?
New York, New Jersey, & Chicago. [+ maybe 1 other]
-SO-
***Think before you listen to the, so called experts, calling
this signing a bad signing.
****If you buy a car & you like the car, then who cares what
your jealous neighbors think.
editorial by G-dad.
bigdave
July 1st, 2010
11:43 pm
i wonder how much a rhino like Craig Smith is willing to play for..
Truth-Serum
July 1st, 2010
11:44 pm
JeJe im trying to keep an open mind with Sund…. Keep hope alive!… But I feel you. The history does tell a tale.
Adair JJ is as good if he got the calls. If you take away the foul calls from lebron, Wade, Kobe, Mello, wed be talking JJ.
Absolutely the difference between JJ and the rest of the superstars is the foul calls. With this contract I think the refs have to give him that ‘prop’ because hes got it like thatl!
JSS I do recall Blue Ray saying he would love to see Heywood here and I believe I understood him to say its do-able.
Whopper Dawg
July 1st, 2010
11:44 pm
This contract is widely considered the worst in NBA history and it is. It is not remotely defendable and will handcuff and drag this franchise down. With this group we have already peaked and we would have gotten beaten by the Bucks if they had been healthy. The showing against Boston two years ago has led to a completely out of scope view of this team by management, and now all the money is gone to a guy who has to have the ball half the time to score 25% of the points. What a tragic error. The easy things they can’t do, draft Paul, it was staring you in the face, and something that you had much time to analyze and also stares you in the face, let Smith walk, you blow. This can’t be about Bball, it has to be about selling this team to another idiot and Smith is part of the window dressing.
Truth-Serum
July 1st, 2010
11:46 pm
Poppa Smurf (grandad) cant wait to here your thoughts on the Blogs subject and today’s activities.
Truth-Serum
July 1st, 2010
11:48 pm
G-Dad I think you nailed it! B u l l z e y e!
tckr83
July 1st, 2010
11:48 pm
G-Dad
Sorry man. It’s a bad contract no matter how you look at it.
But apparently the ASG has other things up their sleeves besides the hopeful/probable signing of JJ.
Anyone think the Hawks could work Biedrins (sp?) back in a trade from Golden State (new logo is one of best in the NBA btw)? Since the Warriors are interested in Marvin… probably have to be a bigger trade than just the two of them to make everyone happy. But wouldn’t be a bad pickup at all…
JSS
July 1st, 2010
11:50 pm
@ Serum…
Yeah, but the way the day has played out, I think Heywood might come off the board. That Gooden deal really shocked me.
JeJe
July 1st, 2010
11:51 pm
2 years ago we all wanted Biedrins.- not after he got his new contract. The guy sucks now. His confidence is low, he can’t stay healthy, and I believe he was shooting 16% on FTs for a while.
Get Monta Ellis. 11M/yr for 25/5/4 (his 09-10 averages) is great, even though he probably doesn’t play D and it was in the GS system. If you do that, you can start Joe and Jamal at the 2 and 3. This 1 – 3 is so powerful that they can take turns lighting up the scoreboard
Nique
July 1st, 2010
11:52 pm
Not sure I would feel good about the Marvin for Ellis move. Although its a “sexy” proposition, I don’t know how much that deal helps the team with its current problems. Someone mentioned earlier how Joe should stay at the 3 and I definitely agree. And Ellis isn’t a point by any means.
I like what ownership is saying but don’t think we have that much time to just sit back and act slowly. The list for decent veteran bigs is not that long. I’ve been suggesting Haywood for a while now but the Mavs promised to make him the starter and would give him a decent contract….Kurt Thomas, Big Z, and Ben Wallace are a few names that come to my mind that would really help out in my opinion (defense and rebounding). As long as Smith and Horford both play for us, we are going to need bodies with length and size coming off the bench to be successful.
Whether JJ resigns or not we are most likely going after (inexpensive) bigs, I’m just hoping the guys they have in mind (whoever they are) will still be there.
tjhook
July 1st, 2010
11:53 pm
The Spurs’ Richard Jefferson just opted out of his contract. I say we can send Marvin Williams to the Spurs for multiple draft picks (or for George Hill and a expiring contract -McDyess?) Marvin has no reason to be with us. Hell, I’d trade Marvin for McDyess and pics! It would give the Hawks a chance to have money available for Horford in the future (McDyess’ contract coming to an end)
Also, I can live with Bibby on the team- he can shoot.
Grandad
July 1st, 2010
11:54 pm
-Hatter-
Well Spoken,
You have been granted absolution.
We will work on the Al thing if the Hawks
actually get you a center.
remember…”the Secret”
Down the road when all this FA stuff winds down
&
summer league is over.
In the mean time;
keep up the fine commentary.
fegatello = (1)Nf3 (2)Nc6
tjhook
July 1st, 2010
11:55 pm
Also, why is no one talking up AL Harrington?! What did he do so wrong in Atlanta. He’s a good player, just not a dominant one. And we traded him on good terms
Nique
July 1st, 2010
11:57 pm
I meant Joe should stay at the 2!!
Grandad
July 1st, 2010
11:57 pm
-Hatter-
Thanks – That means alot. [11:46 & 11:48]
Grandad
July 2nd, 2010
12:00 am
tckr83:
How do you figure?
-seriously-
I haven’t read all post’s today
SO
please explain, then I’ll attempt a rebutt.
Wabe
July 2nd, 2010
12:01 am
Bottom line, the only way the Hawks land a player with the abilities of JJ would be if they were lucky enough to walk away with a guy through the draft. However, seeing how poorly we’ve drafted in the past, and considering how much luck would be involved in that, I don’t think you can look at this deal as some have and suggest the Hawks are “outrageous” for offering him the big bucks.
JJ may not be the max-salary player that many of you would like him to be, but he’s pretty damn good. I think some of the things that people tend to fault him for (the non-stop dribbling) are all just lumped into the complete failure of a flawed system that was installed when Woody got here. Pair that with no floor general on the floor to run the PG position and two relatively young frontcourt peices, and you’ll see the type of performance that JJ displayed in the playoffs.
I wasn’t thrilled the Hawks threw the max at him, but I’m not jumping out of my seat pullin’ my hair out because they did. I honestly think it was the right move, despite the fact that we may have overpaid. I don’t think you can criticize ASG for overpaying JJ a couple million more a year compared to what guys like Marvin and Bibby are making for playing “bench-player roles” on this team. Neither was productive enough to be starters last season, but all failures for the Hawks seem to be pointed at one of two things:
1 – JJ’s overrated
2 – Horford’s undersized
It seems some completely disregard all of the factors that must go a teams way to win a ring. I personally think JJ’s more of a solution to the problem rather than the problem itself. The outcry that we’re hearing now may be justified, time will tell. But, nobody can honestly say that the Hawks would’ve been better off minus JJ. 53 wins and a 2nd round playoff exit is better than mediocrity. I mean, it’s not as if FA’s are staying up at night waiting for the Hawks to give them a call. Pull a few more peices like we did in the previous offseason with Jamal – guys who think of themselves as coming into a good situation and being that peice that gets us over the top – and we might have something here.
I will say this though, re-signing JJ can’t be it. ASG acknowleged the fact that we do need to add peices around JJ that we lacked last year. I’m looking forward to seeing how they carry on with this “plan” if JJ re-signs.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
12:01 am
“Not sure I would feel good about the Marvin for Ellis move. Although its a “sexy” proposition, I don’t know how much that deal helps the team with its current problems. Someone mentioned earlier how Joe should stay at the 3 and I definitely agree. And Ellis isn’t a point by any means.”
You’re missing the point. Yeah, Ellis isn’t an ideal fit for the Hawks, but if you have a chance to make that big of a talent upgrade, there’s no excuse not to do so. Marvin is an average at best player while Ellis is a borderline All-Star and one of the league’s best scorers. If he doesn’t fit in with the Hawks, you can always trade him for someone valuable, because his trade value will always be much higher than Marvin’s.
In this case, it’s not so much about how well the player fits. It’s just about trading a mediocre asset for a very good one.
In any case, a Marvin-to-GS deal is probably going to net the Hawks expiring contracts and draft picks, not legitimate talent like Monta. The rumors have all said the Hawks are trying to move Marvin to create cap space.
nes
July 2nd, 2010
12:02 am
WELL IF THE HAWKS LIKED DANIEL ORTON, WHY DIDN’T THEY DRAFT HIM WITH THE 27TH PICK AND MORE THAN LIKELY J. CRAWFORD FALLS TO THE HAWKS AT 31. GENERAL MANAGERS GET PAID TO VISUALIZE THE DRAFT AND ACT CORRECTLY IN DRAFTING PLAYERS, THIS CASE SUND GETS AN “F” GRADE IN NOT SWITCHING THE PICKS AND GETTING BOTH PLAYERS. THAT IS WHY THEY WILL FLOUNDER THIS YEAR, AND ALSO BRINGING JJ BACK FOR MAX CONTRACT WILL RUB PLAYERS WHO KNOW HOW JJ QUIT IN PLAYOFFS.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 2nd, 2010
12:05 am
By the way, with Channing Frye getting $30 million over 5 years, you can bet Haywood — and any other useful big man free agent for that matter — is now priced out of the Hawks’ range. Haywood is probably going to command at least $2-$3 million more per year than the mid level exception.
I still think the Hawks’ best bet to get the “true center” they want so badly is by trading Jamal.
tckr83
July 2nd, 2010
12:08 am
Grandad-
Haha… Ok, humor me. I’d like to hear your reasoning as to how it isn’t a bad contract? Hawks overpaid… did they not? Big time. Thats good enough for me to call it a bad contract.
I’m a lifelong Hawks fan… but be honest here. ONLY reason JJ is here is because the ONLY thing worse than overpaying for JJ is to let him walk for nothing in return. Zilch.
Nique
July 2nd, 2010
12:09 am
Najeh,
I definitely agree the move would be a talent upgrade. I was only contemplating how the lineups would be afterwards IF thats the only trade for us. However, just to make myself clear, I love the idea of getting another trading chip if it leads to a deal that would be the right fit for the Hawks right now.
tckr83
July 2nd, 2010
12:13 am
Wabe -
Bibby 6M/yr
Marvin 7.5M/yr
Joe Johnson 20M/yr based on this contract
Thats not a few million difference per year between JJ and Marvin & Bibby.
darrell starks
July 2nd, 2010
12:13 am
What is taking the hawks so long maybe marvin is on the air plane now 2 goldenstate him and bibby for ellis.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!
tckr83
July 2nd, 2010
12:15 am
Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford and Monta Ellis on the same team? There aren’t enough shots to go around in an entire season for those 3. Hawks need help down low. The Magic series showed us that…
darrell starks
July 2nd, 2010
12:16 am
Can ellis play defense, larry drew will have 2 buckle down and command defense win championship along with a solid rotation of ball movement.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!
darrell starks
July 2nd, 2010
12:19 am
ATLANTA HAWKS
STARTER ELLIS, JOE, CHILL, JOSH, HORFORD.
BENCH TEAGUE, JAMAL. MOE, ZAZA, HAYWOOD.
RESERVE CRAWFORD, MORRIS.
GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!
Grandad
July 2nd, 2010
12:20 am
*Amir Johnson, UNrestricted FA, *listed 6-9,
*has supposedly grown to 6-11 since he was drafted out of HS.
Shot Blocker, plays with intensity, has not been a starter.
Would not start for us initially. *perfect rotation player,
*with J & A, not much on offense [YET]. * LD’s offense ??? *
18 min, 6pts, 5 rebs, 1 block (rounded), 62% fg%
Might not need all mid-level to get him.
-KEY-
Plays With Intensity !!!
The Skinny: Amir Johnson, at this stage, is everything right with basketball. He’s a defensive role-player with bombastic athleticism and a fantastic motor. He has almost no offensive game. But unlike so many other young bucks looking to make money and a name from themselves, Amir knows he has no moves, and thus rarely shoots. *[NBA FanHouse]
** I love this kid ** I’ve watched him when @ Det **
Grandad
July 2nd, 2010
12:21 am
Oh yeah – this kid could be our BIG ! from above, 12:20 AM
doc
July 2nd, 2010
12:22 am
due to recent acquisitions al jefferson is expendable, does anyone ant to do the trade for josh now and throw in ellis for marvin. geez samuel would show up proud for sure and maybe give a little more cred to “my boy rick”. MBR i guess is a bit out of favor with samuel now that he has let woody go and signed woody’s guy to a long term contract. now does bibby go as well?
Nique
July 2nd, 2010
12:23 am
Grandad,
I really liked Amir too, but he agreed to terms to stay with the raptors. And he’s getting paid well…5 yrs $ 34 mill.
dll
July 2nd, 2010
12:31 am
why are we chasing after some one who doesn’t want to be here. he told us that in the playoff. the hawks need to go and get a big man and a power forward to back up big all. trade marvin and bibby. and stop playing . joe is not the anwser. we all saw it in the playoff. he is not a leader
I Heart Atlanta
July 2nd, 2010
12:34 am
Im too lazy and scroll up to see who said it but i would be SUPER happy if we got ALharrington back
Truth-Serum
July 2nd, 2010
12:35 am
JSS Ill bet by this time next week all the chip will be in and all the cards on the table. We may catch a small move or 2 at the beginning of preseason but the franchise moving acquisitions we be done.
hawks & spirit get what they deserve
July 2nd, 2010
12:39 am
Enter your comments here
hawks & spirit get what they deserve
July 2nd, 2010
12:40 am
How ironic, the player that caused the split is at it again? What a waste of money this would be…IRONIC to say the least. Maybe with all the money he will just become the owner?
Melvin
July 2nd, 2010
12:40 am
doc,
Comeon, Josh for Al. Hawks lose out on that trade big time. Al does absolutely nothing without the ball in his hands. Besides, him nor Al are true centers and both same to play in the same area on the floor.
Truth-Serum
July 2nd, 2010
12:42 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHo7EpwUvnk
Melvin
July 2nd, 2010
12:44 am
Hawks better go after Jermaine O’neal before the teams with all the cap space get him….
dll
July 2nd, 2010
12:48 am
we need some role players and a center
Truth-Serum
July 2nd, 2010
12:48 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NP4ChnLAx0U&NR=1&feature=fvwp
Grandad
July 2nd, 2010
12:51 am
tckr83
In his prime = Joe.
*ASG could not let him walk.
*He essentially cost them the whole *Belkin ordeal
[letting him walk would have seemed as if the whole
thing was fruitless].
He will still be in late prime @ end of contract.
Paul Pierce opted out & will be given a 4 yr. ext.=
P.P. will be 36 @ the end.
Kobe is 31 would it be a bad contract to give him 6 yrs.
Dirk already making $21 mil, opted out for more yrs.
now
Dirk scores but really, what else does he do???
Not a center, not a shot blocker, doeesn’t guard anyone,
doesn’t rebound, what /?? yet he’s max guy !!!
It’s all perception.
Value is relative.
It’s is he more or less valuable to the Hawks than
other teams. answer = yes. Answer is not ambiguous.
-Continuing-
the Hawks have a 5 year window @ best. [to win a championship]
Joe’s prime yrs.
J & A, whom we are really building around,
is the key for that 5 year window.
Once again, Joe = prime yrs.
-Shall I continue-
Okay – Now it’s up to Sund [ whom I've lost confidence]
after the draft, to continue to build a champion.
ASG must fund or look like fools.
-NOW-
had they not signed Joe they would have been accused
of running fanchise on the cheap, which is what they did
to ‘Belkin’ & that may not have went over well in ct.
if he came back and counter-accused them of doing the same
thing involving the very same player 5 years later.
Not to mention, it would have been dumb.
have you been humored enough?