Atlanta Hawks: ASG vs. Russian mogul for Avery Johnson? (UPDATE: Mark Jackson gets a shot)
Might take a lot of cash to get him. (AP Photo)
(Friday update: Mark Jackson will get a chance to convince Hawks owners he should be the next head coach. He’ll have some work to do to persuade everyone in the Hawks’ hierarchy he can do the job with no prior coaching experience but it’s significant that he will get to make his case. Part of Jackson’s pitch includes this 2008 academic study on successful NBA players also doing well as coaches.)
When the Hawks started their coaching search it looked like Avery Johnson was the hot, big-name candidate. As it turns out, Celtics assistant Tom Thibodeau seems to be the key horse in the coaching carousel.
Now that Thibodeau reportedly turned down the Hornets and favors Chicago’s opening, it looks like Johnson is the favorite in New Jersey. When Johnson’s name first surfaced with the Hawks, the perception was that they wouldn’t spend the money to hire him. The Hawks dispute that notion, but if they really want Johnson they might have to put up the cash to prove it since Nets billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov is so free-spending that he might be willing to lure Phil Jackson by topping his $12 million salary with the Lakers.
Getting back to Thibodeau, it’s interesting how he’s become a hot commodity. Obviously a lot of that has to be due to his reputation as a defensive specialist and his role in Boston’s success. But I’m also guessing that it’s because teams feel like they can get a good coaching prospect relatively cheaply and, as a bonus, gain the kind of buzz that gets fans excited even though he’s never been a head coach.
Dwane Casey has been a head coach before but he hasn’t generated the same kind of enthusiasm from the masses. Though Casey is said to stress developing a defensive culture , it’s hard to draw firm conclusions from his results as head coach of Minnesota. The T-Wolves were roughly the same in defensive efficiency during his first season of 2005-06 as they were the year before though they made significant improvements in effective field-goal percentage allowed and rebounding percentage. But it’s not really an equivalent comparison since only four of Minnesota’s top eight players in 2005-06 were the same as from 2004-05: Kevin Garnett, Trenton Hassell, Wally Szczerbiak and Eddie Griffin.
In Atlanta, Casey would inherit a group that has the physical talent to be a good defensive team but lacked the commitment. Woody talked a lot about defense and tried to create an atmosphere where players valued it as much as him but, from what I saw in my short time here, they never bought into it consistently. The assumption seems to be Atlanta will be a better offensive team simply by virtue of a change in approach and accountability but I think the defensive end is going to take a lot more work. The team’s personality is such that it’s going to be a challenge for the new coach to demand good defense and get it all the time.
Anyway, I’ve heard Garnett and Rashard Lewis both swear by Casey. Lewis, whom Casey tutored while an assistant in Seattle, recently endorsed his old coach. From Steve Aschburner at NBA.com:
“He’s a great coach. He’s a gym rat. He made sure I worked on my game all the time. He knows the X’s and O’s. He was a great assistant coach when he did the scouting report. He’s just one of those guys who eats, sleeps basketball.”
MC
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408 comments Add your comment
Ramon
June 7th, 2010
1:16 pm
I wish the Hawks could have signed Hubie Brown to a one or two year contract, while waiting for Rivers to take a year or two off and then pursuing Rivers to take over. Hubie Brown is a better coach than ANY of the candidates. So to have him for a season or two, while you build up a case for Rivers would’ve been a great idea!
lewis
June 7th, 2010
1:50 pm
Travis Outlaw: Age: 25 | Height: 6-9 Experience: 7 years | ‘09-10 Team: Blazers/Clippers
2009-10 Stats: 9.1 pt | .381 3P% Status: Unrestricted free agent
The Skinny: Outlaw, who went to L.A. in the Camby deal, made enough true believers in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 (13/4 in limited minutes each season) to survive an iffy 2009-10 campaign. Better yet, he’s young and suitable as a sixth man. After LeBron and Gay, this is free agent market light on young small forwards. With shooting range and athletic defense always at a premium, Outlaw really is a name to watch. If he doesn’t stick in L.A., there should be a job in Minnesota waiting for him.
Rudy Gay: Age: 23 | Height: 6-9 Experience: 4 years | ‘09-10 Team: Grizzlies
2009-10 Stats: 19.6 pt | 5.9 reb | Status: Restricted free agent ($4.4 million qualifying offer)
The Skinny: Gay was maligned enough by fans and media heading into 2009-10 that his demands for an extension with an average salary greater than $10 million met with guffaws. But it’s Gay laughing now, as a much-improved game for a much-improved Grizzlies team has left Rudy in position to get such a contract offer this summer. Memphis can match any offer sheet Gay signs, and the circumstances of restricted free agency will likely make Gay one of the August signings (assuming Memphis doesn’t quickly meet his demands). If not Memphis, the Wizards or Clippers seem like appropriate suitors. Minnesota could be a dark horse, likely requiring a sign-and-trade to get something done.
Josh Childress: Age: 26 | Height: 6-8 Experience: 4 years | ‘09-10 Team: Olympiakos (Greece)
2007-08 Stats: 11.8 pt | 4.9 reb
Status: Restricted free agent (Hawks; $4.8 million qualifying offer)
The Skinny: Childress hasn’t played NBA ball in two years now after fleeing in the False Alarm Foreign Flight of 2008. As troubling stateside finances and an infusion of cash in Eastern Europe heaved the summer into rumors of a mass exodus of America’s star players, Childress ended up being the only American-born player of note to take the loot. Chills flirted with a return in 2009, meeting with the Bucks but finding himself unable to secure a deal in a skittish market in time to opt out of his Olympiakos pact. I suspect Childress will at least test NBA waters again this July, perhaps with more success. A rangy, hyper-efficient defender like Chills certainly has a place in the NBA.
Ronnie Brewer | Age: 24 | Height: 6-7
Experience: 4 years | ‘09-10 Team: Jazz/Grizzlies 2009-10 Stats: 8.8 pt | 1.6 stl
Status: Restricted free agent ($3.8 million qualifying offer)
The Skinny: Brewer never made a huge splash as a scorer with Utah, but he did make a name for himself as one of the top perimeter defenders in the league. That’s the scouting report he’ll tout in a free agent market heavy on scorers. Brewer is also near the top of the list in steal rate (percentage of opponent possessions in which Brewer gets a steal), finishing second in 2007-08 and seventh in 2008-09. He’s also quite efficient from the floor with his infrequent shots, and a decent rebounder at the two (but bad for a small forward).
lewis
June 7th, 2010
1:50 pm
Udonis Haslem | Age: 29 | Height: 6-8 Experience: 7 years | ‘09-10 Team: Heat
2009-10 Stats: 9.9 pt | 8.1 reb Status: Unrestricted free agent
The Skinny: Haslem is a Shane Battier All-Star — little in the way of stats, but a big impact on games. Udonis is undersized at the power forward position but a plus defender (Dirk remembers ‘06) and a good rebounder. He plays under control and unselfishly on offense, and he’s considered a good leader in the locker room. His minutes have been pinched by the drafting of Michael Beasley, and his effectiveness perhaps limited by the odd big man rotation in Miami. But he’s got plenty of basketball left, and he could really help a team on the upswing.
Jermaine O’Neal | Age: 31 | Height: 6-11 Experience: 14 years | ‘09-10 Team: Heat
2009-10 Stats: 13.8 pt | 7.1 reb Status: Unrestricted free agent
The Skinny: O’Neal, long sighed upon due to a slipping game and a rising salary, had a decent bounceback season for Miami, scoring more efficiently than ever before, thanks no doubt to a smaller offensive role than ever before. Miami really provided a blueprint for how teams can effectively utilize O’Neal in the final years of his NBA career: pair him with a high-usage perimeter player and let him focus on defense. J.O. remains one of the league’s better interior defenders, but his age and injury history should muzzle his value this summer.
Amir Johnson | Age: 22 | Height: 6-9 Experience: 5 years | ‘09-10 Team: Raptors
2009-10 Stats: 5.5 pt | 4.8 reb Status: Unrestricted free agent
The Skinny: Amir Johnson, at this stage, is everything right with basketball. He’s a defensive role-player with bombastic athleticism and a fantastic motor. He has almost no offensive game. But unlike so many other young bucks looking to make money and a name from themselves, Amir knows he has no moves, and thus rarely shoots. He’s like a regular Jarron Collins! Actually, he’s not, because he’s actually good. Johnson is a great rebounder at the power forward spot, a fine shotblocker (though better in years past with Detroit) and an all-round exciting defender. He could be a future two blocks/two steals player, joining fairly exclusive company. This is a kid who deserves the attention some fellows further up the list will grab.
Anthony Morrow | Age: 24 | Height: 6-5 Experience: 2 years |
‘09-10 Team: Warriors 2009-10 Stats: 13.2 pt | .454 3P%
Status: Restricted free agent ($1 million qualifying offer)
The Skinny: Morrow is undoubtedly one of the league’s best shooters — he shot almost 47 percent on threes as a rookie, and just about 45 percent this season, all while taking almost 40 percent of his FGAs from long-range for a team that lives behind the arc. Morrow is also a solid rebounder at the two-guard (below average at SF — Don Nelson is the only NBA coach who would play Morrow there),and a effort-giving defender. He’s a much better Daniel Gibson in other words, and deserves attention from contender and rebuilder alike.
lewis
June 7th, 2010
1:52 pm
technical fluidity of the actual forum here is lacking.
please fix it ajc.
Melvin
June 7th, 2010
2:25 pm
Lewis,
If we could resign Chills, then I’m all for signing Jermaine O’neal (who I spoke to at a resturant yesterday) and Amir Johnson. Maybe sign Kwame Brown to a vet min contract if he’s still available late in the summer.
O'Brien
June 7th, 2010
2:34 pm
Lewis,
Thanks for the player recaps.
The hawks need a shooter. The 3 best shooters available are probably ray Allen, Mike Miller and Kyle korver. However, I think they will all be out of the hawks price range.
I have suggested JJ redick, but his qualifying offer is $3.8 mil, and you don’t know how much of his good looks was due to Howard.
So I have changed course. I would go after Anthony morrow. He is a former Georgia tech Guy, and his qualifying offer is $1 mil. I the hawks offer him 3 years, $9 mil, is that a good deal? An would golden state match?
O'Brien
June 7th, 2010
2:40 pm
As a side note, I think the hawks should trade Crawford if jj resigns. Crawford is an expiring deal And could bring us some much needed depth.
As a matter of fact, if jj walks away, I am still open to trading Jamal, and signing john salmons. Crawford is making $10 mil this year, and may want a pay raise next year.
Trading crawford (and maybe a lesser piece) should bring a decent return). Salmons can probably be had for $8 mil per. And then add a shooter (like morrow) to back up salmons.
Ken Strickland
June 7th, 2010
7:10 pm
GEEMACK-I hope JJ doesn’t allow the friendship and comradery he developed with Bibby to cloud his judgement. Starting Teague will vastly improve our overall DEF automatically, especially our on the ball DEF. His ability to penetrate and break down DEF’s will allow him to either score, and/or get to the FT line, or create easier scoring opportunities for others. There’s absolutely no way Teague can’t duplicate Bibby’s meager 9.1PPG and 3.9APG if given the same 27.4MPG, along with bench and player support.
Adding a new HC will also be an upgrade, especially if he’s open minded, flexible and progressive. His willingness to utilize his bench will also make a positive contribution to the teams progress. What I’m trying to say is, with a few adjustments, changes and additions, the Hawks will be better able to provide JJ with a chance at a championship ring than any of the teams with the salary camp to sign him to a max contract.
There’s no way JJ can make the Knicks, Bulls or Pistons into a more viable title contender than the Hawks. However, if the Heat do manage to acquire CBosh, then adding JJ could make them a title contender by giving them the additional DEF and outside scorer they need to go along with DWade. But, signing CBosh and JJ to max, or near max contracts, along with DWades contract, would be a really serious financial nut for them to swallow. I think they would opt to sign a much cheaper player, like Ray Allen, to fill that role.
And why think the ASG can’t or won’t spend the money to resign him? After all, didn’t they manage to pay both he and Bibby close to $15M apiece before this season? Since our payroll already included paying JJ $14.975M, all we have to do is increase that amount by a few extra million per yr to give him a max contract. The ASG can certainly afford that, since Bibby’s salary was drastically reduced.