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Atlanta Hawks: Attention on centers

2:59 pm June 1, 2010, by Michael Cunningham

Can Haywood really be had for the mid-level?

The Hawks say they are looking to free agency instead of the draft for frontcourt help. At this point it’s not clear if that need supersedes their desire for a starting-caliber point guard (in case the Jeff Teague thing doesn’t yield immediate fruits) or wing player (in case J.J. bolts in free agency). This is especially the case since the returning frontcourt (Al, Josh, and Zaza) might be a stronger group than the returning backcourt (Bibby, Jamal, Marvin and Teague).

But since the draft doesn’t look like it will yield a big man who can contribute now at pick No. 24, and Jason Collins and Randolph Morris both are free agents, the Hawks will need a center one way or the other. Let’s assume they won’t go the vet-minimum route this time and will actually use their mid-level exception to seek a starting-caliber center (neither assumption is safe, but let’s just say both are plausible). What kind of center could the Hawks expect to acquire in free agency this summer?

First, let me say that trying to predict the market for free agents this summer is tricky. With so many teams potentially having so much cap space (and presumably a desire to spend the money) so-so players might find a strong market for their services. Add in the fact that the focus here is free-agent centers in a league where “quality big man” is usually near the top of the list of wants for most teams in the league, and it makes things even more unpredictable.

(To illustrate that point, see this quote from Magic GM Otis Smith explaining why he used the full mid-level exception last year to re-sign Marcin Gortat, a backup center of modest accomplishment: “Like I said before, we’re in a league that probably only has 10 centers. We just happen to have two. It’s a luxury.”)

But we can look at what happened with free agent centers in years past to get some kind of feel for what the market might dictate. Then I’ll look at some of the free-agent centers for a clue as to what the Hawks might reasonably find available for the mid-level exception.

In 2008, centers Emeka Okafor and Andrew Bogut got the big money, with each signing five-year deals averaging $12 million . Bogut signed an extension before the final year of his rookie contract. The Bobcats signed Okafor to the deal after it had extended a one-year qualifying offer for $7.1 million and after DeSagna Diop turned down their contract starting at the mid-level.

Diop signed a comparable deal with Dallas, so he is the kind of center the full mid-level got you in 2008. But the market was different back then. There were only four or five teams with enough salary-cap space to add players with significant salaries, compared with eight or nine that could do so this summer. So if a salary starting at $5.6 million got you Diop back then, a salary starting at $5.73 million (Larry Coon’s estimate for the mid-level in 2010-11) may not get you even that much now.

Last summer the Cavs signed Anderson Varejao to a deal worth a bit more than the mid-level with five years guaranteed. The Magic matched the offer sheet Gortat signed with Dallas for the full mid-level. And Boston added Rasheed Wallace using their full mid-level exception (yeah, I know, ‘Sheed ain’t exactly a banger in the post but he’s savvy enough to play center as he showed against Dwight Howard). Once again the market was different in 2009, with not so many teams with significant cap space, but it’s a starting point.

That gives us a list of free-agent, mid-level centers (or in Varejao’s case, near it) over the last two years that includes Diop, Varejao, Gortat and Wallace. Looking at how they compared statistically in 2009-10, it seems the Celtics overpayed for ‘Sheed, but then again what they really paid for is what he’s doing now in the playoffs.

So with those four players as the baseline, which 2010 NBA free-agent centers compare as far as their production while also taking their age into account? After crunching the numbers and considering the market, my (subjective) list includes Brendan Haywood, Shaquille O’Neal, Joel Przybilla, Brad Miller and Darko Milicic. Now, like I said, perhaps interest from with salary-cap space drives up the price of these players, or maybe teams they aren’t even worth the full mid-level at this point, but I’m putting them out there for comparison and discussion (hey, it’s June 1 and things are quiet).

The best (realistic) option among the group might be Haywood, who made $6 million this season. He will be 31 in November, which makes him about three years older than Varejao was when he got his deal from Cleveland. So even if he finds his market value inflated he may not be able to attract more than the mid-level, particularly if he wants three years or more.

Haywood and Varejao have remarkably similar statistical profiles. Haywood has a comparable player efficiency rating, rebounding percentage, true shooting percentage and is a better shot-blocker. Varejao is a more effective passer and gets more steals.

Haywood is better than Diop, who turns 29 next January (though he should have plenty of tread left with an average of 14.3 minutes in 536 games). Przybilla (who has a $7.4 million player option for 2009-10) turns 31 before next season; he had a good year in 2008-09 but wasn’t productive during an injury-marred season in 2009-10.

Miller, 34, fell off this season. Shaq actually had a pretty efficient year but age, injury and motivation are concerns so his days of big money are over. Darko ($7.5 million) is still only 24-years old if you can believe that but he’s still mostly about size and potential and isn’t really a willing defender or rebounder.

Haywood, by the way, said he wants to re-sign with the Mavericks. Apparently, watching old and injured Erick Dampier start over him didn’t sour him on his experience in Dallas. The Mavs, who hold Haywood’s Bird Rights, apparently are high on him. Coach Rick Carlisle to NBA.com:

“It’s very important to get Haywood re-signed. I really liked what he did for us. He’s a guy that had an impact on both ends. At 30 years old, he’s relatively young for a center. Centers tend to play for a very long time…Brendan is very athletic. He’s got a good feel for the game. He’s got a good knowledge of the game.”

Some other potential free-agent centers who likely won’t get the full mid-level if they hit the market: Channing Frye ($2.08 million player option for 2010-11), Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Nenad Krstic ($5.4 million player option for 2010-11), Chris Wilcox ($3 million player option for 2010-11), Ben Wallace, and Theo Ratliff.

A full list of free agents by position is available at Hoopsworld.com.

– All appears calm on the coaching search front with ASG’s Michael Gearon Jr. away on business until next week. Mark Jackson interviewed over the weekend but he still looks to be a long shot due to his lack of coaching experience.

397 comments Add your comment

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:27 pm

“If Josh Childress comes back from Greece; how much trade value do you think he would have around the league? I think the Hawks can get a good piece for him”

that’s possible if the reports from Greece about his improved game are true. Childress would have to agree to a sign-and-trade. there’s also the change he gets an offer sheet the Hawks can’t mess with.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:30 pm

@Big Ray, Mike is back: Krstic was pretty good before the injuries. i remember he gave the Heat a little trouble in the playoffs in ‘05 and ‘06.

ILL-logical

June 1st, 2010
7:32 pm

@Daniel: My goal for the Hawks next season would be the Eastern Conference Finals. How would I get them there?
First, a sign & trade for Joe. Folks,he just ain’t that in to us,le’t get over it and hook him and the team up in a win-win( he gets the max and the Hawks avoid the tax).
Where : if Chicago, then Hinrick(sp) and Taj Gipson who I then package with Marvin to entice the Hornets to part with Chris Paul-the only superstar who would consider playing in the ATl.They need frontline players and we need a superstar to sell tickets ,one who just happens to meet the Hawk’s most pressing need .

If, New York is where Joe wants to be then I trade him for David Lee and Wilson Chandler who I then try to entice the Hornets to……

And on another tip. I would “ask” All-Star Al to get bigger and stronger and not wilt when the Dwight Howards of the world enter his territory. Come on people,if Ben Wallace could bang with the big boys at 6′ 7″, All-Star Al can do it at 6′ 9″. Then we can get a free agent big or trade for one while we wait for Dexter Pittman to become the “new” Big Baby”.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:34 pm

@ The Solution: M. Gasol is, as you say, a young and talented big man. it would take a very good package to get him.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:36 pm

@jroc: “Really MC are there any true centers in the nba.All the guys over seven feet are injury prone and are stiffs. Dwight has No post moves still a very raw talent for a true center.I think the hawks would get by with just having an acive 6′10 guy that can get a rebound or get a put back here or there and a few blocks here or there.”

there aren’t very many legit guys. if the Hawks can get a a guy with two or three legit, defined skills, with defending and rebounding at the top of the list, that would be an accomplishment.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:37 pm

@ntrigue: haven’t heard Steve Smith. don’t think i’ve ever heard him express a desire to coach?

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:45 pm

@Daniel: “MC- We always could use more front court help, and I actually like Pryzbilla (coming off injury and down year, might be cheaper) Ultimately, we NEED a playmaker at point. I like Teague, but like everyone else including the orginization, we have no idea if he is the real deal or not.”

if Pryz can give anything close to his 09-09 season he’d be a good pickup. Teague and J.J. are variables leave a lot of uncertainty.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:47 pm

@Prison Mike: “With all this talk about big men, what are they going to do with zaza. I can’t imagine zaza getting much if any playing time if haywood signs.”

Zaza would get time as backup 5 with Horford playing at 4. Zaza is a solid backup.

O'Brien

June 1st, 2010
7:51 pm

Not only is dampier an expiring contract, but it is only partially guaranteed. So they could trade his salary slot to acquire a big name free agent, and dampier’s new team can cut him/buy him out for salary relief.

So I think Haywood goes back to Dallas as the starter (instead of coming here to be a backup).

ILL-logical,

Hornets are not trading CP3. He is the face of the franchise, and very active in the community. Who they might be willing to trade is collision, if we can provide some salary relief, because they are into luxury tax territory.

However, we would probably have to take okafor off their hands to get collison, who would be our starting PG.

June 1st, 2010
7:53 pm

Najeh, Darko said he would play in the NBA next year if he is guaranteed some minutes. He said he was tired of sitting on the bench not playing.

June 1st, 2010
7:54 pm

The only reason I don’t see the Hornets trading Collison is because CP3 seems to always get hurt. I doubt they trade a young cheap back up when their starting pg has had the injury bug lately.

Michael Cunningham

June 1st, 2010
7:56 pm

@Najeh: “I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that Darko wants to go back to Europe.” that’s what he said for much of the season but he seemed to enjoy his time in Minnesota and said he would consider re-signing there. presumably he would also consider another team that offers him a real chance to play.

Najeh Davenpoop

June 1st, 2010
8:02 pm

From ESPN:

“SUMMIT HYPE: Despite insistence by Wade’s camp that there will be no “summit” of free-agents-to-be, Carlos Boozer is thinking of possible locations for such a meeting. “Maybe we’ll all go to the Bahamas and have a pow-wow,” he told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Another hot rumor: The meeting-that-still-isn’t-happening could go off in Atlanta during June 26-28. ”

If free agents can come here to discuss where they want to go, they can come here to actually sign a contract. Just throwing that out there, for those people who think free agents don’t want to come to our fine city. Nah, they just want to play for teams with owners and front offices that have demonstrated their competence, and in the history of this city, only Ted Turner, Arthur Blank, John Schuerholz, and Bobby Cox have demonstrated that on a long-term basis.

JoJo the Godfather

June 1st, 2010
8:03 pm

I like Johan Petro. Probably going to take 2 yrs @ $2.5M per. Says that he wants a multi-yr deal. Sund drafted him in Seattle. He just turned 24 and has been in the league 5 years. 7 ft 250 lbs. 3.4 pts & 3.6 rebs in 12 minutes a game this year. Quick feet but has a tendency to slap at the ball. Picks up alot of fouls (2.2 in 12 minutes). Will he get better?

I also think that Dampier gets cut at some point this offseason. His contract is non-guaranteed. Will probably take a contract starting at the MLE to get him.

tyger

June 1st, 2010
8:25 pm

I’d like to see Randolph Morris production per minute…every time I saw him play he did something good. Every young player that came thru here the last 5 years that wasn’t a top pick was in the dog house, so how can you say this kid has been fairly evaluated?

He dominated the SEC. Was a top recruit coming outta high school. Only mistake he made was declaring for the draft early. If not for that, he would’ve been a to 5-10 pick w/ guaranteed playing time to develop. Instead, he has had to backdoor his way into the league.

Give him a chance with someone with a rep for utilizing his bench properly. How can we discard a kid 7′0, 270 w/ his pedigree and honestly say we need BIGS!

Gearon is right on – “Woody didnt use what he had…”

Sautee

June 1st, 2010
8:27 pm

Weren’t there some bad feelings from Pryzbilla toward the Hawks?

Anyone remember?

Sautee

June 1st, 2010
8:31 pm

cdog,

Don’t rewrite history.

Woodson was quoted last year at this time saying something like:

“I’d like us to re-sign our core free agents (Bibby, Zaza, and Marvin) and then tweak the bench”.

That’s EXACTLY what Sund did. No Woody lover should have a complaint about Sund’s last offseason moves.

Woody sure didn’t.

Ken Strickland

June 1st, 2010
8:31 pm

I also like Przybilla more than Heywood, because he gives you everything Heywood gives you and is bigger and stronger. From a financial standpoint, which is a major consideration with the ASG, I’d look at acquiring MJ MBenga from LA. He’s 7′ and very athletic, which would be a perfect compliment to Horford, and I’d also resign RMorris. With C’s-Zaza/Mbenga, PF/C-RMorris, and a HC with enough sense and ability to utilize this depth and talent, we could match up with anyone’s front line.

Resigning JJ would make everything fall into place. I’d go all out to resign both he and Chills. We could have an outstanding roster without incurring significant payroll or roster changes.

SF-JChildress
PF-JSmith
C–AHorford
SG-JJohnson
PG-JTeague

BENCH
C—–ZPachulia
C—–DJ MBenga
PF/C–RMorris
SF—-MWilliams
SG/PG-JCrawford
Draft pick
SG/PG-MBibby

This starting lineup would give us excellent OFF, DEF, versatility, ball handling, penetrating ability, outside shooting and passing. This bench would give us size, height, versatility and depth. More importantly, it wouldn’t require breaking the bank or creating any possible chemistry issues, which could be a problem with a lot of trading.

If we couldn’t pry MBenga from the Lakers, we could still be solid if drafted that young 7′ stud from Europe. I’m also certain that last yrs 7′ feel good story will be in training camp. He could certainly provide us with addition size and height to battle the likes of DHoward and the Lakers twin towers.

I don’t know if we’ll be better than we were last yr without JJ, but I don’t think we’ll be any worse. With Bibby being relegated to the bench where he belongs, along with his inconsistency and porous DEF, and with a HC that has a clue, as well as giving a damn about OFF, we could match last yrs overall production. Not resigning JJ would certainly make resigning JCrawford a top priority.

Sund will have his job cut out for him over the next 2yrs. He has to try and resign JJ this yr, then try to resign Horford and Crawford next yr. The 1st step towards elevating us to elite status has already been made. The next step will be making the right choice in selecting the best HC for our team, then he can concentrate on resigning JJ. If Sund can successfully pull of the last 2, we’ll be on our way.

Dukester9

June 1st, 2010
8:41 pm

I say we package Joe and Marvin and send them to the 76ers for Iguodala and Sam Dalembert. We get a good frontline scorer in Iggy and a tough center in Dalembert. I think most Hawks fans feel either Joe is walking or either we dont want him anyway. But we still have a team to support so we might as well get something for him. I like it because we match Joe’s ability at the 2 spot and we get out from under Marvins contract.

PG Teague/Bibby
SG Iguodala/Crawford
SF Josh Smith/Iguodala/Mo Evans if he doesnt opt out
PF Howard/Josh Smith/Benchplayer
C Dalembert/Horford/Puchalia

fill the bench out but just make sure we have a deadly 3 pt shooter on it.

sam'l

June 1st, 2010
8:42 pm

MC…you deserve credit for pushing the story forward…..this is what I want to hear at least… cutting edge stories on where this franchise is today. Thank you.

cdog….don’t want to start a giant argument….but even the diehard Woody fans slunk away after the Orlando disaster….they finally got it…..and Sund did exactly what most people thought he would. Hawks beat the Celtics four times this season. How did the Celts beat the Magic?

Now I’m going to disagree with MYSELF on Sund. The Celts beat the Magic because among other things they have Rajon Rondo playing like a man possessed and also because they have a defense genius named Tom Thibadeau who came up with a five man human net. Sund’s most giant mistake is not calling up this tactician and at least interviewing him for the job.

Think I’m nuts…Try this….
NBA champs……2010….CELTICS
NBA champs…..2011 ???? but NEW ORLEANS will be in the final four

Sund should already have this guy wined and almost signed….so he can show Joe what kind of mojo he be dealing with next year. The other interviewees are lamo, lamo…..

As I stated before, Gearon and company have lost (what is it 250 million dollars in the last few years…can that possibly be correct?) millions upon millions. Why should it be hard to pay a quality coach a few of those millions if that is necessary to stop the bleeding?

Sorry, I won’t accept the GM position for those of you who understand I make sense.

To borrow a tag line that made me laugh….”Stay thirsty my friends.”

cdog

June 1st, 2010
8:44 pm

cp, no i’m not related to mike woodson.i just believe in during the right thing.in the end rick sund is going to be the one who suffers not woodson.you see, i never said woodson was a great coach.he proved he was a good coach by helping build the team into a playoff contender.in time he will get another job MAYBE THIS YEAR.at least he got to the playoffs.there’s coaches out there at golden state, la clippers,DETROIT PISTONS, sacremento kings, washington wizards just to name a few who would have love to have made the playoffs.woodson didn’t fail to defend dwight howard, miss layups or shots.he was not on the floor playing.the players on the floor did that.the coach can only put them in the right spots, its up to the players to perform once that happens.rick sund should have recognized as you and many others have also, that we were missing a quality set of big men to defend the good teams such as the majic, and celtics who we did beat but in a playoff series, the celtics would have beaten thge hawks without a quality big man.sund just plainly didn’t go out and give woodson what he needed to beat the good teams in a playoff series.like him or not sund is terrible.until the hawks get a quality GM, I DON’T CARE WHO THE COACH IS, THEY WILL LOSE IN THE PLAYOFFS.

cdog

June 1st, 2010
8:50 pm

SAM’I, SUND WILL NOT BRING IN A KELVIN GARNETT OR A KENDRICK PERKINS.THE CELTIC ASSISTANT COACH IS NOT THE ANSWER WITH THE HAWKS.DOC RIVERS WON’T BE COMING TO ATLANTA SO E ASSISTANT WILL NOT WORK COACHING THE HAWKS WITHOUT THESE INDIVIDUALS.AVERY JOHNSON IS THE LOGICAL PROVEN CHOICE TO COACH THE HAWKS NOT THE CELTIC ASSISTANT .RIVERS, GARNETT, PIERCE MADE THE CELTICS GO NOT THEIR ASSISTANT.

sam'l

June 1st, 2010
8:53 pm

MC…”zaza is a solid backup”

I like zaza…..I think it’s cool that he has the guts to go in and battle. I like his behind his back passes.

I don’t like his slowness, his inability to adapt on the court, and his prowess in grabbing an offensive rebound and somehow losing his grip on the ball before he can raise it over his head into the basket.

This disqualifies him from being a quality backup in my book.

You may find quality backups on the Phoenix suns….players who can actually dominate their opponents when they are on the floor. A quality backup is not the best you can do…..it is someone who adds to the potential of the team.

Why do I care? ZaZa is going to have to go somewhere else and be replaced if the Hawks are serious about advancing. He is a likable liability.

UGA

June 1st, 2010
8:56 pm

How bout looking into a trade for Ronny Turiaf? Energy guy, only has 2 years left at 4 million per year.

sam'l

June 1st, 2010
8:59 pm

cdog….I’ll think about what you said……watch New Orleans and think about what I said. I would go with Avery except I can’t get that loss to Golden State out of my mind…….Shouldn’t a competent coach have been able to do something to have won that series? Watch Boston…..when they are working the right way, their players just seem to collapse at the right time just enough bothering the shooter to make him miss…..the spacing…the results…..I have been thinking this was Thibadeau’s contribution….At least you’ll have a chance to judge for yourself….they’re still playing.

cdog

June 1st, 2010
9:00 pm

SAUTEE,YOU ARE RIGHT BUT THAT STILL DON’T JUSTIFY RICK SUND NOT ADDING A QUALITY BIG MAN. HE KNEW IN ORDER TO GET PAST THE EAST TEAMS WE NEEDED A QUALITY CENTER,AT LEAST I HOPE HE KNEW. EVERYONE ELSE DID EVERY TEAM IN THE EAST THAT MADE THE FINAL FOUR HAD QUALITY BIG PEOPLE EXCEPT THE HAWKS.BECAUSE OF WHO?, RICK SUND.I REST MY CASE..I BET A GOOD GM EVEN AN AVERAGE ONE WOULD HAVE DONE THIS.LOOK AT THE GOOD TEAMS, LAKERS,SUNS,MAJIC, CELTICS, MAVERICKS AND NUGGETS.WHEN THEY NEED A PLAYER, THEY GO OUT AND GET THEM, NO MATTER WHAT.SUND IS MORE CONCERN WITH MONEY THAN CHAMPIONSHIPS

Rufus1

June 1st, 2010
9:02 pm

Rod

I would agree with you that Turk is a better for this Atlanta team, but not at 3.5mil per year more.

I would like to pose this question to you…would Marvin only average 11pts in the Toronto run and gun offense, NO…He would average atleast 15pts and 7rbs per game..

No, They are not better players, you may think that, but they are not. A chicago radio talk host decribed Hinrich and Deng as ” average at best”.

Deng..can’t shoot the 3, average defender, average rebounder and always hurt. 12mil

Hinrich..inconsistant shooter and can’t defend the SG. 9mil

The talk host decribed anyone who thinks Deng or Hinrich are players as ” Out of Town Stupid”……Watch a couple of game or some highlights and think they are better, than they are.

If they are better than Marvin……How Much are they WORTH?

cdog

June 1st, 2010
9:03 pm

SAM’I GIVE THE MAN A CHANCE, MAYBE WITH THE HAWKS THAT WON’T HAPPEN.AVERY JOHNSON IS A GOOD COACH WHO IS A PROVEN WINNER

Grandad

June 1st, 2010
9:11 pm

Najeh + Everyone !

Larry Sanders [6-9.25] bare ft. [6-10.5] shoes [222]wgt
[7-5.75] w-span [9.75] hand length [11] hand width,
will be listed 6-11, *supposedly wide frame and shoulders,
therefore can easily add 20+ more lbs.(per NBA draft.net)
*measurements – DraftExpress.

Najeh I agree that we need a ‘Big’ that can ‘Bang’.
Especially (Orlando).
However, Sanders measures out almost the same as ‘Cousins’.
[except] the girth.
He’s *longer than Josh / although not nearly as **athletic.
*barefeet Josh 6-7+ (to) Sanders 6-9+
**athleticism – who is? [Josh]

I doubt Pittman will be around @ our # 2 pick.
If so = no brainer.

I readily agree that we should take the very best
“basketball player” @ 24. I’ve said before,
that G.Vasquez might be that man.

I would be disappointed if we took a defeatist
attitude and sold the pick or traded out of the
1st round or drafted a Euro & stashed him for
8 or 9 years.
Do something positive !

They wonder why fans don’t show?
No news
no trade spec
no info coach search
no good players available to be drafted
nothing coming out of Hawks offices [but silence]
Yet
Go to “Hoops Hype”
every NBA city
something going on
trade spec
FA spec
draft spec
Continuously generating interest.

I’m off my soap box…later.

sam'l

June 1st, 2010
9:20 pm

We beat Boston 4-0. We beat (a sometimes injured) Garnett, Perkins, Rondo, Ray Allen, Pierce…..

Al, Joe, Crawford, Josh are just as good as the Celtics. With a competent center and competent coach, I like our chances…..

Can Sund keep the core, add a real big man, and find a competent coach? That’s my question.

What I don’t understand is how the Hawks beat the Celts 4-0, the Celts beat the Magic 4-2 (even with Howard throwing elbows at everyone in sight), the Magic beat the Hawks 4-0? And where’s Cleveland? (right Ohio)

sam'l

June 1st, 2010
9:22 pm