Magic at Atlanta Hawks Game 4: Personnel, Philosophy and Payroll
Expanding my print edition story . . .
Personnel
If the Hawks are interested in moving forward instead of standing pat, that means they are chasing the Magic. The disparity in talent (basketball, not physical), depth and single-minded execution in this series has been apparent. In addition to Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, the Magic can send out at least seven additional players who effectively fill major roles.
To get to that level, the Hawks need more and better perimeter players, starting with a point guard. That’s true whether they re-sign J.J. or not, which I’ll get into more under the “Philosophy” heading. The Hawks need to see what they have with Teague, and sending him to summer league is a good start, but they also need a veteran other than Bibby who can possibly start or play big minutes.
The Hawks need more depth. Look at the bottom of the roster right now: Joe Smith, Jason Collins, Randolph Morris and Mario West. The Hawks need better players to fill those roles (backup center, power forward, and defensive wing) and either Woody or the next coach has to make it a point to work them into the rotation.
Philosophy
When the Hawks, including co-owner Michael Gearon Jr., say they are a better team when the ball is moving, what they mean is they are better when J.J. isn’t dribbling out the ball on one side of the floor while his teammates stand around. So before the Hawks even begin to ponder how much they think J.J. is worth, they first must decide if he can play a different style. If the Hawks re-sign J.J. and add a point guard who can get to the rim and create open shots, can J.J. thrive as a spot-up shooter and cutter? Or does he need to play his deliberate, slashing style? If the Hawks keep Woody, would he be able to get J.J. to change for the sake of the team? Can any coach do it at this point?
At first I defended the merits of Iso-Joe, which included the Hawks’ excellent efficiency numbers during the regular season. Slowly I came to realize the psychological toll it has on this team, which has several guys who need to be involved to stay sharp. And now we see that in the playoffs good defensive teams, which most of them tend to be, can neutralize Iso-Joe or Iso-Anybody. Actually, we saw that before the playoffs, when the Hawks kept losing those road leads with low-scoring second halves.
The Hawks’ need for a point guard ties into the defensive philosophy, too. Since two of the Hawks’ four primary perimeter players are weak defenders, Woody has had to use switches on screens (Woody is a big fan of Bibby but I think he’d use him as a reserve if he had a clearly better option.) If Woody stays and the Hawks acquire a couple more strong perimeter defenders, would he then scrap the switches? (I think he would.)
The chemistry issues also tie into philosophy. Perhaps if the Hawks ran an offense with more player and ball movement they wouldn’t suffer so many of those demoralizing scoring droughts. Surely a defense that keeps Al and Josh near the basket would help with the negative rebounding margins, fatigue and frustrations that can occur when big men are forced to defend on the perimeter.
Payroll
It’s easy to say ASG simply needs to go for it and start spending serious money. The Magic has three guys (Dwight, Rashard and Vince) making more than J.J., and those three guys have taken it to the Hawks. Still, none of the rest of the Magic are particularly high-priced, but there are lots of them. The Magic picked the right guys behind the stars and a coach who’s gotten them to buy into a defense-first approach.
So it’s not only about payroll. But the Hawks didn’t use either of their salary-cap exceptions this season, and that’s a major way to acquire solid, veteran players who can fill a major role. It’s what teams with real championship aspirations do even if they don’t go out and sign max guys. The Hawks’ $66 million payroll is well below that of the serious contending teams. They’ve gotten next to nothing from the minimum-salaries guys at the end of the bench.
But the reality is, there are only a few superstars ASG could acquire who would provide a reasonable chance at a return on their investment in this market. The list starts with LeBron, Wade, and Kobe and doesn’t go on much longer, if it all. Without getting into the many reasons offered for why people haven’t turned out for Hawks games, the attendance and revenues haven’t kept pace with the victories. The Hawks had to sell deeply discounted tickets (or in some cases give them away) for playoffs games. This is not an environment that would inspire any owner to take on payroll unless they can get a guy on that short list of box-office draws.
I saw that effect in Miami. The Heat traded for Shaq and suddenly they were the hot thing in Miami. Three years of sellouts and dramatically increased revenues followed. Then things went south, teh crowds and revenues started drying up again and Shaq was on his way to Phoenix. That’s how it tends to go unless a franchise is located in a rabid basketball town with deep ties to the local team.
You can offer an argument that the city would rally behind (and spend money on) a low-key, superstarless team that plays fundamentally sound offense and rugged defense. But, really, is that realistic? The Hawks sent out an exciting, athletic team that won 37 games at Philips Arena while scoring a lot of points and still had trouble drawing. Would it really make a big difference if the newly-constructed team ran less isos and fought through screens?
As it stands now, the Hawks’ payroll is projected at roughly $45 million next season. The salary cap is expected to be at about $56 million. That means if the Hawks let J.J. walk without a sign-and-trade, they can could possibly sign a free agent whose salary starts at $10-$11 million $9-$10 million (edit: reader Robert Dinterman emailed to note that this would require the Hawks to renounce several cap holds–see here for details). If they end up at the cap limit, they then could add a player using the mid-level (salary starting at about $5.5 million), bi-annual ($2.1 million) exceptions and/or minimum-salary exceptions.
Perhaps that plan might work in the short term if the Hawks got the Personnel part right and found good value for a starting point guard, defensive wing, center and whatever else they decide they need. Maybe losing an All-NBA talent like J.J. is offset somewhat by the change in Philosophy that presumably would happen with him gone and a point guard added. It’s doubtful it would be a team that can break through to the East finals but maybe it’s a small step back before something bigger down the line.
MC
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372 comments Add your comment
STEEL (Formerly VenomSpitter)
May 10th, 2010
10:41 pm
Charles is outta his DAMN MIND saying Woody needs a contract.
northcyde
May 10th, 2010
10:41 pm
Plastic ( aka Venom ) . . . just being real man. People are booing him now, but I saw a few fans clapping when he went out of the game. Those fans that were clapping, know what this franchise was like before he came here. Even though he sold us out in these playoffs, they do appreciate what he has done for the franchise, as I do.
I’m not even trippin off you though. I wore my JJ jersey proud in a city where NO ONE had any Hawk paraphenalia. I just hope that if the Hawks do a sign and trade, that they ship him to the West. No way I want him coming back to Philips, teaming up with D-Wade in Miami, Rose in Chicago, or Lebron in New York. I’d rather have him on my side, than against me.
Don!
May 10th, 2010
10:41 pm
Plans for next season:
1. Resolve the ownership issues. Management by committee leads to mediocrity … at best.
2. Find a new coach. One that can mesh with …
3. Build the team around JSmooth and Horford. If we can get a team to bite on a JJ sign-and-trade, great. If not, look to Crawford for a season to fill that hole. See what JChill’s value is, because he’s not signing here now. Find out if Teague can be a starting PG. Zaza is okay, but we need more big depth to make up for our lack of size at C. We’re going to have to run three folks deep at that position, and give Big Al some time to catch a breath.
53 wins, third in the East. That was the ceiling for this team, and a great season. But this team doesn’t have the heart of a champion, and this city isn’t going to support average teams for the long term.
Later,
Don!
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
10:43 pm
Hawks should change their name to the Pigeons.
Blast
May 10th, 2010
10:43 pm
Sad way for Hawks to flame out after a pretty decent season. Decent in the sense that they lost games they should have won, just like how they lost to Magic by not bringing it all, or bringing it at all. Just as how Bucks almost got them. We all know when Hawks bring it, they can beat anyone, but they chose to do that split personality thing, which comes to bite your butt at crucial moments.
Biggest problem I see is coaching. Woody has never adjusted to having other options apart from Joe, so he never had any plays to call but for the iso…
As a result, Joe got comfortable in that role and even when younger guys got better, Jamal came aboard, Joe was not ready to change his ways…
In a way, I’m kinda glad it came down to this. Will force ASG, Sund to make some hard decisions. Woody? Joe? Bibby? Marvin? Childress? List goes on and on….
vava74
May 10th, 2010
10:43 pm
my guess: ORL loses in the ECF.
the Hawks are a curse: we get sweeped on the second round and then the team that sweeps us thinks that they are better than what they really are.
And then they lose!
Najeh Davenpoop
May 10th, 2010
10:44 pm
Some idiot yelled at me during my FIRE WOODSON chant to “know my sh-t, Woodson’s contract expires”. No sh-t sherlock. “Don’t extend Woodson” doesn’t have the same ring to it.
Nice season Hawks. Could have been better, but 53 wins ain’t bad. Hope they have the balls to make the possibly difficult moves to get past this point, starting with…
FIRE WOODY
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
10:45 pm
A blind man could see the Hawks need a point guard and a center. A deaf man could hear it. A man with no hands could feel it…
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
10:46 pm
Put a wig on Reggie Miller and he’s Cheryl Miller…
BILLY KNIGHT
May 10th, 2010
10:46 pm
WELL WOODY IT’S OVER AND YOU STILL MY BUDDY BRO.
Hawk n the Ham
May 10th, 2010
10:46 pm
My Joe Johnson jersey is silently weeping in my closet right now.
2 FOR JOHN DREW
May 10th, 2010
10:47 pm
THANKS AND BYE WOODY
REALLY ‘PPRECIATE YOU … BUT BAH BYE !!
Derek
May 10th, 2010
10:51 pm
The way Orlando is playing right now, I honestly don’t see anyone in the East coming close to beating them. Cleveland is actually having trouble with Boston right now. They are underachieving a bit there. Also, even with all the weapons Cleveland has, I don’t think they are even close to Orlando at this point. Lebron is incredible, but you can’t expect him to beat a team by himself. Rashard Lewis is playing a lot better than Antawn Jamison, and Shaq is really showing his age. Additionally, Jameer > Mo Williams, and Vince Carter >>>> Anthony Parker. Then you look at the bench and its not even close there either. The Magic bench is league’s better than the Cleveland bench both offensively and defensively. The only team which will likely be able to stop Orlando now is the Lakers, and if they do meet in the finals, I see the Lakers frontcourt doing a number on Orlando for the second straight year, but it should be more competitive than last year.
bigdave
May 10th, 2010
10:52 pm
Ray..
i was saying last year that its a wonder that the predictability and overall principles of our coaching had not created frustration; it finally did.
Joe was physically and mentally depleted. it shouldnt be that easy to beat a team with so much individual acclaim. however, we saw the same Hawk effort give or take a few more made shots here and there. which yield the same results. our shot selection sucked. i fell like our starting talent was good enough to have at least competed, our coaching never gave us a chance.
Redemption
May 10th, 2010
10:53 pm
@robdawg08
Cheryl Miller probably outweighs Reggie by a good 80 pounds, lol
mykhalc
May 10th, 2010
10:55 pm
a HC, effort and on-the-court-team-chemistry…HAWKS lack all of ‘em…PERIOD!!! i hear it’s ugly at Philips once again. i hope WOODSON finally gets his papers!!! JOE was once the defacto leader of the team but never a leader that demanded accountability IMHO. i think there is probably someone more suited for the role that is currently on the team but hasn’t spoken up for obvious reasons…heirarchy/peckin’ order (Horford seems to fit the mold). real leaders WANT to and CHOOSE to lead. and the follow-me-by-example type of leader will ALWAYS command only so much. a leader will rally those behind him to march with him/her. Joe never fit that role. question is…is his time up too??? i know Woodson’s is…better be. this second round beat-down was absolutely needed for this team to move forward. the ability to see beyond the mirage of the 53 game win mark is now in clear view despite ORL bein’ clearly in a class above the HAWKS. can’t wait to see what the summer brings…aaahhhhh a real HC…NICE!!!
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
10:55 pm
Magic have best center in NBA (Howard), one of best shooters R.Lewis,and added V.Cater who can score from anywhere inside and outside. Hawks have a dribbler JJ,a lazy dunker Smoove,and a lazy point guard M.Bibby. Only holdovers I’d keep are Horford,Smoove,and Teague. Let the rest walk.
Grandad
May 10th, 2010
10:57 pm
Barkley:
“No D___ heart” [Hawks]
“Woody deserves a new contract”
“Break up the team”
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
10:57 pm
A drag Reggie and Cheryl would be twins !
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:00 pm
Yeah, Barkley toasts Woody for not getting mad then says he needs a new contract. Barkley must be drunk ?
That’s like calling a dude a prick then inviting him in for dinner.
STEEL (Formerly VenomSpitter)
May 10th, 2010
11:01 pm
Sund is a smart GM for the simple fct he knew not to sign Woody to a contract b4 the season.
South ga boy in the atl
May 10th, 2010
11:01 pm
One of the sad parts of all this now is the fact that JJ may have run himself out of so much money that we can actually afford him at the same time when I think we prob need to let him go
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:02 pm
Oh yeah, keep J. Crawford too.
Blast
May 10th, 2010
11:02 pm
Y’all cracking me up with this Reggie/Cheryl look alike Sh!t! They are brother and sister for Pete’s sake! Although one of my gay girlfriends did tell me in confidence about Cheryl a long time ago:
“Oh, she one of us, honey.”
For Hawks to pull that Jerkyll and Hyde stuff all season, and manifest it to the playoffs really made me start to believe there was dissention in the ranks. Not sure exactly if it’s b/w Joe and the younger guys, or Joe and Jamal on a sub level, but whatever it is, it has cost Hawks their season. Let’s see if Sund can realise and rectify that.
Night, Hawks fans. If Boston beat Cavs tomorrow? Then I will be a happy man.
Don’t get it twisted. Not going to bed yet, just getting off the blog. Got a new novel I want to read a little tonight.
Wabe
May 10th, 2010
11:02 pm
Barkley knows his hoops, but he obviously doesn’t know much about the Hawks inside operation.
It’s too much contradiction with those TNT guys when it comes to the Hawks. They criticize all of the things that the headcoach is responsible – getting the team motivated to play a playoff game; the “atrocious” half-court offense – but then they say we should re-sign the man that’s responsible for these shortcomings?
Mike Woodson hasn’t done a damn thing to prove he’s the guy that’ll get this team over the hump. People were saying that he could work his way into another contract had he made this a series, but we didn’t even come close to winning a game.
Grandad
May 10th, 2010
11:03 pm
Yawl are just messn’ around, ’cause they are twins aren’t they?
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:04 pm
Damn, I’m the typo king tonight… Go Lakers ! Kobe needs another ring !
Grandad
May 10th, 2010
11:04 pm
Never mind he’s her younger brother, yawl got me.
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:07 pm
Hey blast, just read the cliff’s notes version of that novel. A novel idea…
Chery, I mean Reggie is doing commentary with the pervert Marv Alberts tonight.
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:08 pm
Twin sisters or brothers or shims ?
dat super atl kush
May 10th, 2010
11:08 pm
the reason for mike woodson’s consistently bloodshot eyes and missing eyebrows
what bibby shares with woody to keep him in the starting lineup
what smoove will be puffin on tonight
what atl fans will need to cope with such a miserable, hollow, showing from the top down (other than Al)
SamOleMess
May 10th, 2010
11:09 pm
Dont get your HOPEs up… Hawks are shopping at Lennox on a Walmart budget. Hell they gonna let Sund coach and bring in Mateen Cleaves Ben Wallace and Antione Walker..
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:10 pm
Deron Williams is the first player since Dennis Rodman who you can tell cares how his hair looks.
ric
May 10th, 2010
11:10 pm
Blow it all up! Fire Woodson and let Joe Johnson go, this is as far as this group will take you. Keep Horford, Josh, Jamal and start Jeff Teague next year. Everybody else has to go and we need to bring in players that are hungry and a coach that has a system
South ga boy in the atl
May 10th, 2010
11:11 pm
I’m so dissapointed in Josh’s lack of consistant intensity. I really thought he had turned a corner, maturity wise, but the hard truth is hasn’t and I just don’t think he ever will, new coach or not. He’s prob at his peek right now as far as trade value and we need to get as much as we can. I love his highligts but can’t stand watching a guy with as little athleticism, in comparison to Josh, as reshard Lewis just run right by him. Josh could get max money and be the face of his hometown team if he just played smart all the time and gave max effort all the time. But he doesn’t, he won’t, and we need to move him for players who will.
Blast
May 10th, 2010
11:13 pm
Amazing that Hawks only started getting major mention by TNT and ESPN when they started losing and sucking it up, but when they were beating the Bucks, Hawks hardly got a squawk? This from home based TNT?
lewis
May 10th, 2010
11:13 pm
I’m so dissapointed in Josh’s lack of consistant intensity. I really thought he had turned a corner, maturity wise, but the hard truth is hasn’t and I just don’t think he ever will, new coach or not. He’s prob at his peek right now as far as trade value and we need to get as much as we can. I love his highligts but can’t stand watching a guy with as little athleticism, in comparison to Josh, as reshard Lewis just run right by him. Josh could get max money and be the face of his hometown team if he just played smart all the time and gave max effort all the time. But he doesn’t, he won’t, and we need to move him for players who will.
co-sign
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:13 pm
Get Amare Stoudamire or Chris Bosh ! 4-Real ! Dwyane Wade maybe ?
lewis
May 10th, 2010
11:14 pm
http://www.nba.com/playoffs2010/live1/ for those interested in watching post-game..woodson should be coming on shortly….they already did a few magic players and svg
lewis
May 10th, 2010
11:15 pm
oh you guys probably get that locally on fsn or whatever
lewis
May 10th, 2010
11:17 pm
they must be having some serious discussion in that locker room…
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:19 pm
I’d take a team of Horford,Wade,and Bosh over any current 3 players playing together right now (like Garnett,Rondo,Pierce or Kobe,Gasol,Odom).
Byron
May 10th, 2010
11:20 pm
Joe has been great and he’s very difficult to replace, but based upon what we’ve seen from him in the last couple of years, I think he may have reached his cieling. I think there may have been a slight issue in playing him and Jamal together. After all, they play the same position and both have similar habits (taking a lot of shots and creating on their own). When you have two players with a big time scorer mentality that play the same position, it can sometimes nullify both of them a bit when one is taking opportunities away from the other, and vice versa. There was enough Iso with Joe Johnson on the team, and bringing in Jamal only increased that, which is why I think we need to let one of those two go. My vote would be Joe, simply because Jamal is much more of a bargain salary-wise and he doesn’t mind coming off of the bench. With the money we free-up with Joe, I would go after a solid defensive, play-making point guard who is ready to run the point from day 1, no more rookies (and no more declining vets like bibby). With the remaining core players, we have more than enough offense to go around if the guys are given their shots (Horford, Smith, Williams, Crawford). I honestly think Marvin would be a lot more effective without Joe around. He showed what he could do last year when the team suffered with injuries during the second half of the season, and he still has a lot of upside. Horford is a stud, and I would not trade him for anyone. He’s a true diamond in the rough and a true all-around classy, talented player and natural leader. I think he could really continue to blossom in a system that revolved more around him than two scoring guards. Now, provided we keep Horford, Smith, Williams, and Crawford, and use Joe to pick up a solid point guard, the only void missing in the starting lineup is the SG position. I think we could get a good quality, solid SG for a bargain to play reasonable minutes at that position (Crawford would probably play at least 1/2 of those minutes). Salmons might be a nice pick-up if he’d be willing to accept a modest contract.
Then, we would be looking at a starting lineup of:
PG – Not yet known, but we need to get our money’s worth for Joe
(A defensive-minded guard with good play-making ability is a must)
SG – John Salmons (Wishful thinking)
SF – Marvin
PF – Josh Smith
C – Al Horford
Now, the bench definitely needs some bolstering, which is why I’d try to work something out with a bibby trade and make use of the free agency. I think we could continue to develop Teague and bring him off the bench at PG (with more consistent minutes), while Jamal remains as the backup SG. At SF, there is a serious void, since Mo will likely leave us. It would be great if we could either get Childress back on the team or sign-and-trade him if he no longer wanted to be a Hawk. Heck, if he could play near the level he is Europe right now, I would start him over Marvin and put Marvin as the backup SF. Now, at PF, I think we could use an upgrade over Joe Smith, but with virtually no money to spend, that is a tough one. Zaza is still solid as a back-up center also.
This isn’t a huge upgrade, but it could get the team more versatility, while improving defensively and not losing much offensively. It could also clear up a small bit of cap-space. The problem is finding a talented PG that would like to come to ATL, and whose team is willing to give him up.
robdawg08
May 10th, 2010
11:22 pm
Horford is a power forward not a true center. We need a big man to deal with Dwight Howard !
Wabe
May 10th, 2010
11:24 pm
I’ll say this, Chicago tryed John Salmons at the 2-gaurd after they let Ben Gordon go, and he was horrible…
They eventually moved him back to the bench. His play picked up, but they eventually let him go.
I’m not so sure if this means anything, but maybe worth considering.
Rick
May 10th, 2010
11:25 pm
Horford did as a good of a job, if not a better job than any “true” center against Dwight Howard. If you look at the statistics, Dwight did most of his damage in this when someone other than Horford was guarding him. Horford made the all-star team as a “center”, statistically he is the best post-defender at the “center” position, and overall, any other player at center other Dwight Howard would be a downgrade from Horford.
Byron
May 10th, 2010
11:27 pm
What I like about Salmons is the fact that he may be a bargain at the SG position, since I doubt he would ask for much salary-wise and he has that non-stop effort mentality. His playing ability isn’t spectacular but it’s as solid as any third or second-tier SG. Plus, I don’t expect that much from him offensively, but he does have a bit of what Joe had in his ability to post up and create his own shot, plus he is a solid defender.
Byron
May 10th, 2010
11:28 pm
If we focus on getting a high-quality PG, I don’t think there will be much left, salary-wise to do much for the SG position, which is why Salmons comes to mind. I can’t really think of anyone else right now.
lewis
May 10th, 2010
11:29 pm
dwight howard: “when we won last series…stan made us do a lot of running in practice. We do a lot of running. Stan don’t mess around with that.”
hawks were outmanned, outcoached, outconditioned, outplayed
James
May 10th, 2010
11:30 pm
Byron,
I kind of like the Salmons idea, plus Milwaukee would probably be willing to let him considering they should have a healthy Michael Redd back soon.