Atlanta Hawks at Bucks Game 3: By The Numbers
Oh, how I wish this was around back when I started my Iso-Joe count.
As I stated at the time my goal was to try to create some good data to better illuminate the debate on isos so arguments could be based on statistics rather than perceptions. Not to say stats can tell the whole story of Isos or anything else–I’ve already said I initially underestimated the impact the isos can have on the Hawks’ psychology and chemistry–but the numbers obviously would be a tremendous analytical tool.
You might have noticed that I never did offer my final Iso-Joe count. That’s because there were three games or so where I wasn’t confident about my count and I couldn’t go back and check it due to problems with my garbage Comcast DVR. I heard Synergy Sports was going to offer a public version of the software it provides for teams soon. So I decided to wait until it was online so I could get an accurate count of J.J. isos, and not just for the games I counted but the entire season. Plus I also wanted to see data on the Hawks’ other play types so comparisons can be made, which makes the exercise infinitely more useful. Well, Synergy is up now and I signed up for it the other day but (of course) the computer problems I mentioned yesterday so far have prevented me from getting it up and running. But, once I do, I plan to examine Iso-Joes and more.
I see that super commenter Najeh and crew already have cited a Raptors blog that used some of the Synergy stuff. Just like that they have managed to to impeach the persistent complaints from Truth and others that Al is a weak post defender. According to Synergy’s numbers, he is one of the best despite being posted up more than almost any other center. That’s the beauty of this Synergy program–statements like “Al is a poor post defender” can be evaluated statistically instead of argued endlessly using isolated examples, hunches and perceptions.
Anyway, Synergy has some sample reports available for the first-round playoff series. The first thing that jumped out at me from the Eastern Conference playoffs summary is that the Hawks rank last among East teams in defensive points per play. They’ve been the worst East playoff team against pick-and-rolls (and ranked just 25th during the season) and third-best against isolations. On offense the Hawks not surprisingly have run the most isolation plays among East playoff teams but ranked just 12th during the regular season (”all they run are isos”). The Hawks have run the third-most post-ups after ranking 19th during the regular season (”Woody never adjusts”).
Those numbers have to be placed in context since, unlike with regular season stats, teams haven’t played common opponents. But they are cool to look at for some insight. Here are Synergy’s Hawks-Bucks series numbers and definitions for the stats. I’m looking forward to digging in once I figure out my technical issues.
– hawksdawgs at Peachtree Hoops breaks down tonight’s “ball game ball game”. I think he hit on something here about what has become known as the Skiles Dilemma in this series:
One bright spot for the Hawks is our role players have sucked something awful this series. Maybe the road will provide just the reverse psychology they need to get things going. If Mo Evans, Jamal Crawford, and Zaza Pachulia can give average minutes, the front court dominance should continue in some form or fashion for the Hawks to win their third in a row. I have no doubt Skiles will throw something new at the Josh and Al, but I can’t help but think it will be at the expense of guarding Joe Johnson or Jamal Crawford. So that is fine by me.
– Have fun, Hawks fans.
MC
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248 comments Add your comment
Wabe
April 24th, 2010
9:42 pm
I usually don’t make too much of one game. I’ll be more concerned if we came out and saw a repeat performance in Game 4.
But, it still sucks that we played with absolutely no intensity.
Joey
April 24th, 2010
9:43 pm
Woody Harrelson looks content at the podium for his post-game interview.
ant banks
April 24th, 2010
9:43 pm
that SWITCHIN’ sh!t on defense is workin’ my nerves. it doesn’t work. why do you think that no other effin’ team in the league uses it? horford on jennings? omg!!
and if you are goin’ to SWITCH don’t do it every single effin’ play. switch it up to keep team of guard. the hawks are so predictable. psychologically there are not into road game, bibby won’t drive, jj dribbles up 22 seconds of the 24clock, smoove wants to be a 2 guard and the hawks will give you a mix match every time you bring it down the court.
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
9:44 pm
Skiles!
(to the fumbling reporter), ” You’ve Got to be Smarter than the Microphone.”. LMAO! That was Great – Coach!
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
9:47 pm
northcyde..
is that how you interpreted that? im not sure a series sweep implied. Hawks winning the series, sure.. however, i got more of scheme, strength/weaknesses analysis of 2 probable next rd combatants.
as far as a sweep is concerned. i was one who thought that it was more than obtainable. see given this team knows that they can play with anyone in this league, i thought that they would approach this tournament with a championship level of focus and play. the Bucks should not have one a game. period. the head coach should instill that kill in his unit. assure his ball club that their opponent is inferior. if he did attempt that message. only 1 player got the memo.
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
9:49 pm
* “was implied”
lewis
April 24th, 2010
9:52 pm
fire mike woodson and fire mike bibby. bibby’s regressed too much this year we can’t beat teams 4-5 on a switching defense. mike woodson fails. 0 adjustments in 48 minutes. 0 motivation. 0.
O'Brien
April 24th, 2010
9:53 pm
07-08 Playoffs against Boston:
Game 1 in Boston, Lost by 23,
Game 2 in Boston, Lost by 19,
Game 5 in Boston, Lost by 25
Game 7 in Boston, Lost by 34
08-09 Playoffs against Miami:
Game 3 in Miami, Lost by 29,
Game 4 in Miami, Won by 10,
Game 6 in Miami, Lost by 26.
Game 1 in Cleveland, lost by 27,
Game 2 in Cleveland, lost by 20
09-10 Playoffs:
Game 3 in Milwaukee, Lost by 18.
Very disturbing trend for the Hawks. Except for game 4 against Miami, we have been blown out on the road in the playoffs 3 years in a row (so far). How often can we blame it on being young? Or lack of focus? I don’t know what the problem is…
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
9:59 pm
“we didnt match any of there physcialness”
what kind of personnel adjustments did you make and stick with to match there physicality or as you call it “physcialness”? Za Za still in the dog house? what happened to that Jamal, Joe, Mo, Al, Za Za lineup that worked well for us late in the year on the road?
Mike Woodson
“its my job as a coach to get them playing at a high level”
k, so why dont we ever come out with intensity on the road coach, since you say this every time, are you failing at your job?
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
10:01 pm
i wonder what our playoff goals are? where is the bar excactly? what is expected and unacceptable..?
ant banks
April 24th, 2010
10:07 pm
STEVE SMITH, predicted a swee. what hawks team has he been watchin on the road? lol.
ant banks
April 24th, 2010
10:08 pm
please get rid of woody and let jj walk. these two guys are the heart and brains of the team, but we can’t win on the road and we have these mental lapses. what advantage will we have by bringin’ them back?
nunna!!
April 24th, 2010
10:09 pm
Inconsistently inconsistent..
I know you all were not suprised that we lost,right??
Joe showed up,jamaal was in da room,and woody and the rest of da boys were downstairs in the lobby…
FIRE WOODY!!
Grandad
April 24th, 2010
10:13 pm
I haven’t read the entire thread so I may be repeating something or an
original thought from someone else, if so I apologize.
POST GAME INTERVIEWS:
Wdsn:
‘We didn’t play defense, we didn’t get into our rotations, I don’t know what the problem was’.
‘As for offense I don’t worry about that, it takes care of itself’.
Joe: ‘I don’t know, we just wern’t ready’.
Al: ‘We have to come out with more energy’.
Josh: ‘We just didn’t have our focus tonight’.
Bibby: ‘No comment’.
Jamal: ‘We came out without our focus’.
Mo: ‘Man, we just didn’t have any focus.’
Marvin: ‘As usual, it’s all my fault. Oh yeah, and [I] didn’t have any focus’.
Lion
April 24th, 2010
10:14 pm
Well, that game was disappointing. You can’t take any opponent lightly. As Charles Barkley always says “Everyone in the league can play”. The Hawks know that they have an advantage over this team in terms of talent, but they can’t buy too much into that and allow it to effect their play. The Hawks definitely didn’t give it their all tonight, you could see the difference in their body language. I think the team felt like they could win on 50% effort since they are just plain better than their opponents. You have to give Milwaukee credit though, they played a great game. Honestly, this may have been their best performance of the year. While I doubt they are capable of this on a nightly basis (especially the 10-23 shooting from deep), it is something for the Hawks to think about.
On a positive note, the Hawks typically respond well to losses, especially embarrassing ones. This may be a good thing for them as it should help spark the team make them realize what is at stake and how they desperately need to get these road woes under control. Hopefully this will get the Hawks fired up and make them play with something to prove on Monday.
Section 303
April 24th, 2010
10:18 pm
Lion, I agree, the Hawks do usually play well after losses. However, at some point, we have to stop seeing games like this. I can take losing a playoff game, but not like this. No energy, no effort, no anything, really. Sorry performance. The team should be ripped up and down for this.
Almost makes the whole season meaningless. This team is no different than they were last year or the year before.
I would love to see Ric Sund go into the locker room, ask Joe to leave, and then just blast the guys (players and coaches) that were left behind. No excuse for such a sad outting.
sam'l
April 24th, 2010
10:21 pm
1. The Hawks will win next game but only because they’re scared to find out what will happen if they lose. This formula has worked throughout the season.
2. Ain’t gonna jump on no one because it’s already been done.
3. Bad idea to let Orlando rest up while we play on. .
4. The playoff bar is getting into the conference finals…..from management’s perspective.
5. Joe’s bar is to get out of this round and compete intelligently and with desire for the rest of the playoffs.
6. Given the unpredictability of this team, this simply means you can’t trust the Hawks on any given night. Never bet the mortgage on the Hawks.
7. Scoffers…..I will attempt to communicate with you in a manner you can understand..The Bucks will score 16 points (give or take two) in the first quarter of next game………
Go Hawks…….
Maavelous
April 24th, 2010
10:23 pm
Ah wuz maaavelous — as useyouall. But the other doodes suckt.
Disappointing but . . .
April 24th, 2010
10:24 pm
not tragic. Lose the next game & then I’d say why are we even wasting our time.
But the Hawks bigs just need to dominate in Game 4 and this series will be done in 5.
Lion
April 24th, 2010
10:24 pm
Nicely put, sam’l. The majority of those points were right on.
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
10:34 pm
Grand-Daddy
(Pure – Perspective!)
Great Post @ 1013pm.
Co-Sign That!
JSS
April 24th, 2010
10:34 pm
@Big Dave…
It is the proverbial “putting the cart before the horse” aspect of doing such a thing. This franchise has shown NO SEMBLANCE of being able to put anyone with ease since 1969! That is 41 years, and I had the good fortune to see a game when they dispatched the Bulls that year. I’m as loyal and proud of this team as the next person, but taking a series in progress (but not completed in victory) for granted is not a part of its playoff DNA!
ant banks
April 24th, 2010
10:34 pm
WHAT IS IT WITH THE ROAD GAMES? boston, clev, orlando, lakers, dallas don’t have the road woes that we have. they are all professional basketball players. if you can make a shot, set a screen, and play defense why does it matter if you do it at HOME or the road?
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
10:37 pm
IMMATURE – HAWKS!
We’re NOT full-grown yet! We NEED more Veterans on this team. No more youngi’ns!
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
10:43 pm
SHOW-WELL!
In Round #1 & #2.
Make adjustments Mr. Sund! Help your Coach & Don’t use him as an “Azz – Cover” for YOUR mistakes!
Why couldn’t you bring in – Caron Butler, Jamison or Heyward? They went to contenders in excahange for salary & Scrubs! We NEED a bench damn-it!
I am very concerned @ our road play off record & the way we LOSE in blowouts! Someone has to fall on the sword for that!
Maybe Mr. Woodson or the GM? I’m NOT there, so I don’t know?
northcyde
April 24th, 2010
10:44 pm
In retrospect though . . . the Hawks did exactly what this fan base did . . . take the Bucks for a patsy that would just lay down and die for them.
Meanwhile, the Lakers are getting their ish handed to them by the Thunder . . . down 16 with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter.
But I guess this night was set up for failure.
- JJ came to play . . . no problem out of him
- Smoove got all kinds of love the entire week . . and looked as if he started to believe he was the offensive star that people were hyping him up to be. Just play your game Smoove, and don’t try to be the offensive star of the team.
- Horford only grabbed 3 rebounds. Three. That can’t happen under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Focus or not, you have to rebound on a nightly basis.
- Crawford . . . wow . . . so I guess he’s Flip Murray all of a sudden.
I keep saying that this team has been mentally though all year. So we’ll see how they’ll respond in Game 4. If they don’t win Game 4, I seriously doubt they’ll win a Game 6. So if they lose Monday night, this series may go 7 games.
bonquesha
April 24th, 2010
10:44 pm
It is indicative of our Hawks to have double digit losses on the road in the playoffs. It is what we do and who we are. Don’t ask surprise. And why is Joe Johnson the blame for everything? I’m getting so tired of this leadership bull. If you’re a professional, then act like one. Someone has to motivate you and give you pep talks to play hard? That’s so high school. These are grown men making millions of dollars and someone has to stroke them to get them going for a game? Maybe Joe should read them bedtime stories. I hear the “The Little Engine That Could” is a classic. He can tuck them in and kiss them goodnight. Then maybe they’ll be good little boys for the next game. And if they’re really good, Joe will bring them milk and cookies.
Grandad
April 24th, 2010
10:50 pm
drmaryb:
Thank you, my dear.
I’m gonna’ check back later & see how many I had correct.
[for those that didn't know...those quotes were 'ahem' speculative.]
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
11:03 pm
JSS …
absolutely, but since when did Michael Cunningham, or any of us that i know of play or coach the Hawks? what we discuss here has nothing to do with the outcome of these games. thats why they play.. no matter how sensible our theories, coaching philosophies, trade/free agent talk, etc seem they matter none its still Woodson/Sund/ASG. therefore its tough for me to understand how some can feel that we fans discussing Orlando matters this Bucks series? it really is a good read b/t game played 3 days apart. i for one have no problem with rapport as it relates to the Magic and there command over us.
ant banks
April 24th, 2010
11:05 pm
BONQUESHA,
they are blamin’ jj ’cause he wants to have the fattest knot. he wants all of the money and that comes wit’ bein’ the big fish. kobe, lebron, d wade, who jj is oft compared to, all want the money, but they welcome the pressure. jj wants the money, but he shrivels up when it gets hot.
yeah someone else needs to step up, but if jj was a real jigga, he wouldn’t let guys take plays off. do you think jordan woulda let pippen or rodman do some bs? hell to the naw. jj ain’t no killa, that why the team don’t show up durin’ road games. they don’t have a real jigga to answer to
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
11:19 pm
Ant Banks
Very interesting point made. But, who do we get to replace Joe? I mean right now, who is bettet & availabe?
I’m all for it! But, we have already built TEAM @ Joe, so, what now? How about his teammates step up for starters. Or, I can’t believe I am gonna say it – “make a coaching change!”
But, letting Joe walk? Means starting all over again! & “I can’t go for that! No Can Do!”
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
11:24 pm
OKC is embarrassing the LAKERS? Two games in a row? & May even the series?
WOW! Who would have thunk it?
That’s still no excuse for the Hawks to play like this. We are NOT the LAKERS! Just look in the RAFTERS!!!!!
Najeh Davenpoop
April 24th, 2010
11:25 pm
Co-sign every word of Scoop’s post.
There are no positives to take from this game. Other high seeds have lost road games, but none got thoroughly embarrassed by a team missing its two best players. And regardless, the struggles of other teams don’t make the Hawks’ debacle any better. Plain and simple, the Hawks played like sh-t. You can blame whoever you want, but as far as I’m concerned every coach and every player is guilty of not showing up. Can’t blame the schemes alone, since the effort was nonexistent; can’t blame the effort alone, since the schemes were nonexistent.
This team needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask themselves if they are really interested in showing any progress in these playoffs. If they are, they better realize that real contenders put away teams decimated by injury, and that they gotta do a lot better if they want to give the Magic a competitive series in Round 2. So far, to be real, the Hawks have played six really good quarters this series and have been mediocre the rest of the time. That ain’t progress.
Najeh Davenpoop
April 24th, 2010
11:32 pm
Oh yeah, and J-Smoove needs to issue a public apology for his travesty of a game today. Talking sh-t and backing it up makes you a G, and earns my respect. Talking sh-t and following it up with one of your worst games of the season makes you a f-cking clown. Smoove is my personal favorite Hawks player, but considering the magnitude of this game and what he said before it, this was probably one of the worst games he has played in a couple of years.
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
11:34 pm
Najeh Davenpoop!
Co-Sign that Sh-iat.
bonquesha
April 24th, 2010
11:35 pm
@ant banks – Maybe I should bring you some milk and cookies for Kobe, D Wade and Lebron. Let’s see. Kobe is leading his Lakers to a blowout loss in OKC and D Wade is leading his team to an 0-3 start against the Celtics (my bad, he had cramps). So, I guess you want Joe to be a true “jigga” and shuck and jive like the classless and narcissistic LeBron (who unleashed a new monster that loss in CHI). Maybe he could gather the team together for a rendition of the electric slide.
bigdave
April 24th, 2010
11:39 pm
OKC Basketball transition game at its finest..
rusty
April 24th, 2010
11:40 pm
lebron played a monster game,joe did not
Najeh Davenpoop
April 24th, 2010
11:41 pm
There was a spot in the 3rd quarter when the Hawks, after slowly chipping away throughout the 2nd quarter, were able to cut it down to a 9 point game.
If this year’s Hawks were better than last year’s Hawks, they would have continued that run, gotten back into the game, and at least made the Bucks have to pull out a close victory. Instead, just like they would have done last year, they decided that was all the fight they had in them, and allowed the Bucks to go on a run of their own which effectively iced the game. That is the antithesis of mental toughness.
Game 4 is going to be huge. A loss in that game means this series likely goes 7 games and the next one likely goes 5 or less.
Oh yeah, and if you want to bring up the Thunder’s in-progress azz-kicking of the defending champion Lakers in OKC, well, this is why the Lakers won’t be defending that title. Other teams’ inadequacies are no excuse for a healthy Hawks team getting blown out by a team missing its two best players.
rusty
April 24th, 2010
11:41 pm
woody is pure garbage,how could this team learn from him
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
11:48 pm
Bonquesha!
You are crackin’ me up gurl! Or – Clyde? Either way that shiat is funny! Lmao!
northcyde
April 24th, 2010
11:50 pm
Here’s a question:
If people say that Josh Smith is the heart and soul of this team when it wins . . is this the result when his “heart and soul” isn’t in a game, when they lose?
bonquesha
April 24th, 2010
11:51 pm
@rusty – I’m not saying that LeBron didn’t have a monster game, but it was all a waste when you don’t get the victory. Sometimes he gets so caught up in his own ego, he doesn’t make the best basketball decision for his team. Instead, he makes the best basketball decision for LeBron and no one on the Cleveland staff criticizes him for it the same way it seems Joe never gets criticized by Woody for some of the ill-advised shots he takes out on the court. A true leader makes his teammates perform better as well as themselves.
drmaryb
April 24th, 2010
11:57 pm
The Hawks imposed their WLL to LOSE against the Bucks today!
bonquesha
April 25th, 2010
12:11 am
@drmaryb – Thanks, but I’m not Clyde.
Blake
April 25th, 2010
12:15 am
Lets get something straight, this talk about the Hawks not being better than they were a year ago is pure foolishness, and comments stating this simply take away from the credibility of the commenter.
In a basketball sense, the Hawks, collectively, are undeniably superior to their team from a year ago. That is so blatantly obvious that even ESPN analysts have noticed. The statistical numbers, the addition of actual offensive sets and plays rather than impromptu isolation plays for Joe (yes, those still exsits, but they are run far less often), the improved post-offense, and improved individual play. Anyone who has truly followed the Hawks can see the difference.
I think the problem that some of you are eluding to is the mental preparation and mental aspects of the game where the Hawks have not shown significant progress, but they have progressed in that aspect as well. The Hawks pulled off some very impressive road wins this year. Think back to when they defeated the blazers in OT, the Utah Jazz who had been nearly undefeated at home up to that point in the season, the celtics (twice) at the Garden. This team has shown dramatic progress over the year. 53 wins is no easy feat, and there is a big difference between 47 and 53 wins, especially when you consider how much more competitive the East has been this year. The defending NBA champions (who are currently being blown out, by the way) have only 4 more wins on the season than this team.
At any rate, this team deserves credit for what it has done already and it continues to improve more and more. One fluke loss on the road in the playoffs does not take away from that. I understand this has been a problem in the past, but we are not in the past, we are in the present, and right now, the Hawks lead their first round series 2-1. Obviously, they are disappointed with the loss today, but they will not be the first team to have a letdown in one of their playoff games. That does not justify their accomplishments being overlooked.
Let the team handle their business and right the ship for Game 4. No contender has ever gone all the way without taking some bumps along the way, and it’s games like this that make you stronger as a team and teach you what you need to go all of the way. So although this loss was disappointing and disgusting to many, don’t make too much of it. It is only one game and it should provide a much-needed eye-opener for the Hawks to correct their road troubles.
Look for the Hawks to bounce back in game 4 just as great teams do.
kwooden1
April 25th, 2010
12:27 am
I’m sure this loss will wake the team up and they will come out with better defensive next game, but even so they need to be embarrassed. The Bucks were dancing and laughing because we didn’t stop them! But in the end a loss is a loss, whether its by 1 or 30. The Bucks will also come back to earth, because that is what they do. They really can’t shoot and Salmons/Delfino can’t defend their men. My only really problem with this game is, the guys can’t understand that you have to just play hard and forget talking about energy/effort. Close out on shooters, put a body on your man and get over screens. If the HAWKS do these things they will be in every game they play. I don’t like the post-game comments about the lack of focus and effort. I didn’t hear all of the comments, but I’m going to assume that no one said they did a poor job of getting around screens, or that they stood around and watched Joe shoot. I’m sure no one said, “I played good defensive but my guy just played better offensive”. I know they didn’t say that because that didn’t happen (accept for JJ)
GO HAWKS!!!
JSS
April 25th, 2010
6:46 am
@Big Dave…
It is an “apples” or “oranges,” games are run or played on the field, track, ice or court. My old college track coach told me something when I was a frosh and lacked confidence in my talents since I came from Georgia where my PR’s were nearly a minute slower than all of the Midwestern, European and Africans on our XC and middle distance teams. “You would not be here if you did not belong. I guarantee that you’ll beat one of our star runners if they are not at their best.” I ran badly my first 3 races, then just before the NCAA regionals, we went to Notre Dame. They disrespected our team from the time we reached their campus. A newspaper article said we were below top flight talent. They taunted us when walked on the race course. We cleaned their clocks that day. It was no “fluke,” we placed 5 guys into NCAA XC Championships 2 weeks later. I didn’t make the nationals that season, but I ran PR’s and 4 of the fastest times by native born American the next two seasons in the Steeplechase.
So the moral is, that is a PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL TEAM on the other side of the court. We are only 2 years removed from being them. If the mighty Celtics team that we defeated 3 times on our home floor could be defeated, then who in the hell (beat writer or fan) to think that we are: 1. predestined to walk over any opponent, or 2. to look ahead of the task at hand, Win the the series first, they’ll be plenty of time to opine about the next opponent if you are fortunate enough to advance. I said Game 3 was going to be huge, and boy was it!