Atlanta Hawks at Bucks Game 3: By The Numbers

Oh, how I wish this was around back when I started my Iso-Joe count.

As I stated at the time my goal was to try to create some good data to better illuminate the debate on isos so arguments could be based on statistics rather than perceptions. Not to say stats can tell the whole story of Isos or anything else–I’ve already said I initially underestimated the impact the isos can have on the Hawks’ psychology and chemistry–but the numbers obviously would be a tremendous analytical tool.

You might have noticed that I never did offer my final Iso-Joe count. That’s because there were three games or so where I wasn’t confident about my count and I couldn’t go back and check it due to problems with my garbage Comcast DVR. I heard Synergy Sports was going to offer a public version of the software it provides for teams soon. So I decided to wait until it was online so I could get an accurate count of J.J. isos, and not just for the games I counted but the entire season. Plus I also wanted to see data on the Hawks’ other play types so comparisons can be made, which makes the exercise infinitely more useful. Well, Synergy is up now and I signed up for it the other day but (of course) the computer problems I mentioned yesterday so far have prevented me from getting it up and running. But, once I do, I plan to examine Iso-Joes and more.

I see that super commenter Najeh and crew already have cited a Raptors blog that used some of the Synergy stuff. Just like that they have managed to to impeach the persistent complaints from Truth and others that Al is a weak post defender. According to Synergy’s numbers, he is one of the best despite being posted up more than almost any other center. That’s the beauty of this Synergy program–statements like “Al is a poor post defender” can be evaluated statistically instead of argued endlessly using isolated examples, hunches and perceptions.

Anyway, Synergy has some sample reports available for the first-round playoff series. The first thing that jumped out at me from the Eastern Conference playoffs summary is that the Hawks rank last among East teams in defensive points per play. They’ve been the worst East playoff team against pick-and-rolls (and ranked just 25th during the season) and third-best against isolations. On offense the Hawks not surprisingly have run the most isolation plays among East playoff teams but ranked just 12th during the regular season (”all they run are isos”). The Hawks have run the third-most post-ups after ranking 19th during the regular season (”Woody never adjusts”).

Those numbers have to be placed in context since, unlike with regular season stats, teams haven’t played common opponents. But they are cool to look at for some insight. Here are Synergy’s Hawks-Bucks series numbers and definitions for the stats. I’m looking forward to digging in once I figure out my technical issues.

hawksdawgs at Peachtree Hoops breaks down tonight’s “ball game ball game”. I think he hit on something here about what has become known as the Skiles Dilemma in this series:

One bright spot for the Hawks is our role players have sucked something awful this series. Maybe the road will provide just the reverse psychology they need to get things going. If Mo Evans, Jamal Crawford, and Zaza Pachulia can give average minutes, the front court dominance should continue in some form or fashion for the Hawks to win their third in a row. I have no doubt Skiles will throw something new at the Josh and Al, but I can’t help but think it will be at the expense of guarding Joe Johnson or Jamal Crawford. So that is fine by me.

– Have fun, Hawks fans.

MC

248 comments Add your comment

Blast

April 24th, 2010
6:11 pm

Go Hawks! Do like Orlando, win a playoff road game!

Lion

April 24th, 2010
6:15 pm

I think another healthy dose of ball-movement and inside-out play will serve the Hawks well in game 3. As the last quote in this post suggests, Skiles and the Bucks have go give up something on defense, with all of the mismatches the Hawks have. The Hawks frontcourt has pretty much had its way thus far, so I’m assuming there will likely be more attention on Al and Josh in this game. However, that attention goes hand-in-hand with inside-out play. More attention on Al and Josh in the post leads to more open shooters on the perimeter, along with less attention on cutters. That bodes well for the Hawks, since guys like Bibby (who tends to get little defensive attention these days) are deadly from the perimeter if given enough room. The Hawks just need to play smart tonight, make any adjustments early, and maintain their energy and focus

JeJe

April 24th, 2010
6:22 pm

What is wrong with these blogs? No one wants to read 3 paragraphs about Joe Isos

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
6:40 pm

Hawks Game 3 is on the LAM!

I’ve got my popcorn & beer. So, I’m ready! Let’s Go!

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
6:44 pm

JeJe

Then don’t read it! Better yet – stop blogging like a BIATCH in heat!

Do us all a favor. And, Get Your “Scroll – On!”

niremetal

April 24th, 2010
6:52 pm

Cosign drmaryb

Ree Roe

April 24th, 2010
6:52 pm

Hawks wearing red tonight & it’s a red out in MIL. The guys will feel at home in the Bradley Center tonight. Let’s get a win guys!

-REEgistered as Roe!!!

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
6:53 pm

Horford needs a Nick-Name:

I was thinking – “FUNDAMETALS”. But, that’s boring – like Tim Duncan (another PF who plays Center).
Besides, Horford is such an exciting player.

Big-Al is so boring. Anyone…Anyone?

What about this? “COLT-45″ (a malt-liqour). Then we just call Al who he is: a 45. (I.e. A 4 who plays A 5.)

Lion

April 24th, 2010
6:56 pm

Isn’t Al Horford’s nickname “the Boss”? Back in college, he used to “the Godfather”.

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:00 pm

Horford’s Nick Name:

Or if malt-liqour seems ghetto?

How about, “45 Caliber”. (Still a 4 playing the 5), but isn’t that 15 foot shot deadly? So, “.45 Caliber?”
Anyone…Anyone?

Colt .45 might also be a gun & not necc. (Malt-liqour), A Colt .45 is a deadly shot – though.

Just havin fun waiting for the game. Been waiting all day & week! I’m ready for some Basketball!

Lion

April 24th, 2010
7:05 pm

On the topic of nicknames. I think I once read about him being called “the Dominican Stallion”. I thought that one was kind of funny.

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:06 pm

Lion

I Like it…I like it! LOL! The Boss & Godfather is Kewl! I never heard those names before for Horford.
Al is surely becoming a BEAST in the NBA. He kind of reminds me of Karl Malone with that sweet new jumper. Al has a nasty streak too – remember the TJ Ford lynching in Toronto his Rookie year? I don’t think he wants that “dirty-player” label though. ( That’s Zsa Zsa’s role). LOL!

Thanks for the feedback – CP! I love your posts – All of them!

BTW what’s up with Dallas? Great in the regular – Not so much in the Post-Season.

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:10 pm

I meant LION in that last post & not CP. Even though I love CP’s posts too. (Beer-Fart.)

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:12 pm

Marvin has to make that base-line jumper or give it to “45 Caliber”

northcyde

April 24th, 2010
7:16 pm

Not surprised at the start. You knew the Bucks would come out ready to play. Hawks just need to survive the run and regroup.

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:16 pm

I knew Mil was gonna blow their load early

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:18 pm

Bucks doing what the home team has got to do! Hawks need to impose their WILL on the opponent now.
Let them get their fast start & then settle down and make that run.

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:21 pm

Marvin is garbage

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:22 pm

bout time…

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:23 pm

Man why are they missing so many easy shots DAMN

Cannon

April 24th, 2010
7:23 pm

Hawks have a 4 on 1 and Marvin is too stupid to dump it off. Thank god we still scored on that possession.

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:24 pm

can i get a better decision Mike.. that was a horrible.. laaaazy pass.. you saw the defender.

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:24 pm

Man seriously the hawks wanna be called elite YEA RIGHT

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:24 pm

EMBARRASSING

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:25 pm

Hawks look tentative.
1st Game: Adrenaline
2nd Game: Measured
3rd Game: Tentative

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:26 pm

Man the Hawks have no intensity.Pathetic.

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:27 pm

Like I expected the Hawks would be horrible on the road. Thankfully we have home court or we would be bounced in the 1st round

Blast

April 24th, 2010
7:27 pm

Bad start, Hawks. Wake up!

northcyde

April 24th, 2010
7:27 pm

LOL @ Bucks shooting 12 – 16 FG. They’ll come back to earth. We just need to be within striking distance when they do.

Sautee

April 24th, 2010
7:28 pm

Why don’t we go inside? We dominated the first two games on the inside and now we’re settling for jumpers?

northcyde

April 24th, 2010
7:28 pm

LOL @ the Raiders getting Jason Campbell . . . ., really?

Steven

April 24th, 2010
7:28 pm

It’d help if the Hawks would stop being lazy on D

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:30 pm

Do the Hawks expect to LOSE – or WIN?

Just because Cleveland & Lakers (Division Winners), lost game 3? Does not make it OK for the Hawks to lay TURDS!

We are not the Division Leader from the East!

Jody

April 24th, 2010
7:31 pm

Giving up this many points in a quarter is unacceptable.

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:32 pm

somebody needs to put a body on Jennings.. knock him down.. be more physical.. send a message.. he’s fouling everyone..

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:32 pm

as i send he recklessly fouls Josh.

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:33 pm

Swing the ball & play INSIDE-INSIDE-INSIDE damn it!

Jody

April 24th, 2010
7:33 pm

The Hawks need to be taking the ball inside first on every play.

VenomSpitter

April 24th, 2010
7:34 pm

Seriously do the Hawks wanna play defense.

I’ll tune in after halftime this is pitiful basketball

Steven

April 24th, 2010
7:36 pm

no fire…where have I seen this before?

sleepy

April 24th, 2010
7:36 pm

OMG !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I thought Woody was subbing to take the foul we had to give and then they dont WHY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

northcyde

April 24th, 2010
7:36 pm

I know who can spark the Hawks

JEFF TEAGUE

Put him in Woody . . . haha

Jody

April 24th, 2010
7:37 pm

This type run was bound to happen, although I didn’t think it would be this extreme. Now, the Hawks have to show some discipline and patience and work the ball inside.

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:41 pm

Joe telling Mo, “lets go Mo” to forget about the blown lay up..

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:42 pm

let him have it Jamal.. sheesh.

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:43 pm

seriously cant defend the pick and roll..

bigdave

April 24th, 2010
7:43 pm

Jamal had Joe in the post and forced 1…

Steven

April 24th, 2010
7:43 pm

The bench play has been disgusting so far

Jody

April 24th, 2010
7:44 pm

Jamal needs to settle down.

drmaryb

April 24th, 2010
7:44 pm

Hawks!!!!!!!! Uugghh!!!!! Let’s Go!