Bucks at Atlanta Hawks: Game 1
Finally, it’s time. Now that I’ve partially recovered from the emotional trauma of stupidly getting my Blackberry wet yesterday and quietly weeping as I drifted into a fitful sleep . . . I’m ready. (Advice: Backup your smartphone data. Now.)
Got on The Google to find as much Hawks stuff as I could:
ESPN.com’s John Hollinger is picking the Hawks in 5, based in part on this research:
It turns out that in the first round, when the home-court team has won the regular-season series, it also has won the playoff series 41 straight times.
I repeat: 41 straight. Forty-one and oh.
The last team to defy the rule was the 1997-98 San Antonio Spurs, who lost the season series to Phoenix 3-1 but topped the Suns in a 4 versus 5 series in the playoffs; each team had won 56 games that season. It happened three other times in the 1990s, so the odds are slightly better than the daunting 41-0 figure indicates, but in the big picture we’re looking at a success rate of about 5 percent.
Brett LaGree at Hoppinion says Hawks in 5 while admitting that’s a hedge. Before that, he offered his take on what the numbers say about the series considering the Bucks added Salmons and lost Bogut:
It’s a good thing the Hawks play a certain style of basketball regardless of the opposition. There’s simply not much tape on the short-handed Bucks to watch in order to formulate a game plan specific to their current makeup.
One possible downside of the Hawks playing a certain style of basketball regardless of the opposition is the specter of Scott Skiles figuring out a way to stifle Atlanta’s isolation offense. The Bucks haven’t stopped Joe Johnson yet this season (27.3 PPG, 56.1 TS% in the three games) but they are unlikely to see him used in a wide variety of sets. Only Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James had more plays run for them in isolation than Johnson and of the top five players in the league is isolation plays, Johnson was fifth at creating points off of isolations.
My man Charlie G at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel breaks down the series and picks the Hawks in six:
The Hawks are riding a wave of confidence into the playoffs and believe they can handle the Bucks and challenge Orlando in a possible conference semifinal matchup. The loss of Bogut to a season-ending injury on April 3 was a severe blow to the Bucks, who have relied on his leadership all season and will miss his defensive presence, low-post scoring and shot-blocking ability. The Bucks will need a sensational playoff performance from three or four players to have a chance to stay with the extremely well-balanced Hawks lineup.
At Peachtree Hoops, THHB and Drew conclude a conversation about the series with Drew picking the Hawks in five and THHB calling it Hawks in six. Says THHB:
While I truly believe the Hawks, especially playing the Bucks without Bogut, can take the series in four games given their talent advantage– their history of not remaining focused from game to game may cause the series to extend out beyond a sweep. Considering that, plus that the Bucks under Scott Skiles always bring the effort and energy, and the likelihood of the Hawks taking care of business in Games 1 and 2 at home might allow the guard to be let down and MIL to take advantage a couple of times.
ATL_Hawk_Luv at Hawk Str8Talk skips the analysis to predict the Hawks in 5 and lists the reasons it’s important they “dispatch with an inferior team.” One of them:
Are the Hawks mentally tough? No one talks about this, but it matters to this blogger greatly that in 2 years – we haven’t lost a game by less than 10 points. It mattered vs. the vastly superior Celtics in ‘08, but it mattered even more that we couldn’t keep a game close on the road and at home vs. the inferior Heat.
Soaring Down South’s Kris Willis leaves open the possibility of the Bucks “landing a haymaker and stealing” one of the first two games but predicts Hawks in five:
While some pundits out there think that the Bucks are capable of pulling the upset even without Andrew Bogut I ultimately think that this was the best match up for the Hawks in the first round. With me it is not about disrespect to the Bucks because I will admit that I laughed at the thought that John Salmons was going to help this Bucks team in any way when that trade was made. The fact is that trade did work and with a healthy Bogut then this is a scary team. They simply however don’t match up well with the Hawks.
Hawks blog legend Sekou says Hawks in six:
The Bucks have to play above and beyond their means to beat the Hawks four times without Bogut. They’ll be well prepared, no Skiles-coached team shows up any other way, but the Hawks are deeper, healthier and better.
As for me, I’m calling it Hawks in five but I admit to basing that largely on the game at Milwaukee on Monday. The Bucks gave the Hawks what might be their best shot and the Hawks countered it even without Jamal. I’m counting on the Hawks maintaining that level of play forward and winning Game 3 or 4 in Brewtown and not losing at Philips. I say this even though I realize the Hawks are quite capable of making me look silly for it but there it is anyway.
Have fun, Hawks fans.
MC
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267 comments Add your comment
VenomSpitter
April 17th, 2010
7:52 pm
See this is the sh.it im talkin about
northcyde
April 17th, 2010
7:53 pm
SMH @ Horford and Bibby . . . just shoot the ball . . you’re wide open.
Then JJ commits a bad foul at the other end.
JJ . .just get the damn ball next time on offense, and put it in the hole please.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
7:53 pm
defense ourselves.. .
haaha.a… no pressure getting us into a short clock. we do.. we just stand.. and hope the clock runs out..
he is TTTTTRAASH!
terrell
April 17th, 2010
7:53 pm
Damn Bibby! Lazy azz passes.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
7:53 pm
bail out… yet again.. from crap.
Melvin
April 17th, 2010
7:54 pm
Last 2 plays are a good example of why you can throw Bibby assist to turnover ratio out the window. When he force to handle the ball and make plays he struggles…
northcyde
April 17th, 2010
7:54 pm
Horrible shot . . but thank you JJ.
O'Brien
April 17th, 2010
7:54 pm
Wow. Bad possession by the Hawks. No ball movement. Nobody touched the ball except Bibby to pass it back to JJ.
But JJ makes an incredibly difficulty shot. Bad shot, but a great shot. And thats the good and bad of the ISO.
Big Ray
April 17th, 2010
7:54 pm
bigdave ,
In regard to Horford, I knew precisely what you meant. He has not developed that move yet, but I have faith he’ll work on it this summer. I don’t know if he’ll do it in this postseason, though. Now is not the time to work on that.
This is what happens when a guy has limited moves, and isn’t counted on to score all that much. I’m sure he’ll have it down pat for next year. As stated before, that doesn’t help us right now .
What’s bad is that teams have know about this for some time. I remember Hubie Brown talking about it a lot earlier in the season.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
7:55 pm
Joe has given us all he can … and this is game 1..
shots.. hustle.. looked to create… defend.. hit both glasses…
shouldnt have had to work this hard.. why didnt we keep an uptempo offense…?
northcyde
April 17th, 2010
7:55 pm
Bibby knows better. He should’ve just shot the ball when he was open. His entire career is based on making the 20 foot jumper . . so take the damn shot when open.
terrell
April 17th, 2010
7:56 pm
Marvin on the ground again. lol!
J.J.M.
April 17th, 2010
7:56 pm
dumb ass joe dribblin the ball all the way down to 3 secs
VenomSpitter
April 17th, 2010
7:56 pm
Why do the hawks look so stupid in crunch time
ignition
April 17th, 2010
7:56 pm
Can Woodson come up with a better play than a Joe Johnson ISO…
Gawd what happened to the great ball movement of the first quarter…
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
7:57 pm
Ray…
agreed.. but like i said earlier.. our whole entire front line.. minus Randolph Morris could use post work..
VenomSpitter
April 17th, 2010
7:57 pm
I don’t like Jon Barry but he is absolutely right. The Hawks are too inconsistent. Not just game to game but during the game. We play great in the 1st half and bad in the 2nd half. I’m sick of that sh.it.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
7:58 pm
Marvin.. i cant complain.. made some plays.. and still was lost in the shuffle…
Blast
April 17th, 2010
7:58 pm
Stupid they might be, but win this ball game they will.
Melvin
April 17th, 2010
7:58 pm
Good thing the Hawks scored 60+ pts in the 1st half b/c they will not break 40pts for the 2nd half…
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
8:00 pm
dammit Bibby.. u gave us big buckets sir.
O'Brien
April 17th, 2010
8:00 pm
Dont be too hard on the Hawks though.
Cavs were up huge on the Bulls, and then they went over 6 minutes without a point. Most important thing is a victory.
Hawks will have to play better game 2 though, because Bucks have confidence based on how they played the second half. And remember, after we blew Miami out in game 1 last year, they won game 2.
Blast
April 17th, 2010
8:00 pm
Doesn’t matter if they win by 1 or 20. A win is a win. Bucks did not come here to lay down tonight.
Why are Bucks fouling with 25 seconds to go and down 8?
drmaryb
April 17th, 2010
8:01 pm
Salmons busted that water balloon on the back of his neck. He gonna need to drain the fluid off that thing!
ignition
April 17th, 2010
8:01 pm
We dont play smart when its crunch time … They play tight and go back to the same tired JJ iso that leads to opponent getting back into the game or blowing us out completely…
VenomSpitter
April 17th, 2010
8:02 pm
The difference is the cavs have Lebron and the refs on his side WE DON’T. SO IT’S NOT THE SAME THING AS THE CAVS.
northcyde
April 17th, 2010
8:03 pm
It wasn’t ISO-JJ that got them back into the game. JJ was 3 – 4 FG in the quarter.
It was the defense in general and the bad turnovers.
Horford is 1 – 5 FG in the 4th quarter. He had a few shots go in and out.
kwooden1
April 17th, 2010
8:04 pm
If we hold on to this game, we’ve got to understand that the game isn’t over until the other team gives up. We’ve got to work on entry passes and better cuts for 48 mins. Overall GREAT WIN!!
GO HAWKS!!
sleepy
April 17th, 2010
8:05 pm
these announcers are nutz .Didnt the Bucks have confidence coming in that they could compete with us ? the second half means nothing but that they didnt lose by 20+ pts
kirkinga
April 17th, 2010
8:05 pm
A win is a win is a win. The first quarter and half count just as much as the third quarter and second half. The Bucks didn’t play well enough, long enough to win this game.
The Hawks lost intensity at both ends of the floor after building a huge lead. I don’t think anyone should act as if that is a rare thing in the NBA. That said, I don’t see any red flags that would indicate that the Bucks can win this series.
Go Hawks!!
drmaryb
April 17th, 2010
8:06 pm
Jon F#*kn Barry?
Calling us Jekyl & Hyde? But LBJ is the kIng? His team let Bulls hang around too! Same thing we did!
“A win is a win. All teams make runs!” That was Woodson’s qoute from sidelines on ESPN. Is he miked up?
ignition
April 17th, 2010
8:06 pm
Why we went away from Josh in the paint too.,.???
That is what built the lead play inside out not the other way around..
northcyde
April 17th, 2010
8:09 pm
While people will applaud Scott Skiles, he pretty much ICED Brandon Jennings in that 4th quarter. He had 30 points and had scored 12 points in that 3rd quarter . . . but only went 1 – 5 FG in the 4th.
Thank you Scottie, for resting Mr. Jennings, and preventing him from putting 50 on us. We appreciate that.
LOL . . this is the playoffs. He better be prepared to play that kid 44+ minutes, if he has it going like that.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
8:10 pm
a win is a win folks sure…
but same ole’ glaring deficiencies…
gotta clean it up..! focus.. its playoffs…!
Blast
April 17th, 2010
8:11 pm
Yeah, Cavs were up big vs Bulls and Bulls cut the lead down, just like tonight. I hope the team and Woody learn from this ballgame. You can’t get complacent and go away from what is working.
Folks saying Bucks are going to get confidence from this game. I don’t see it. I think Hawks are going to get a nasty jolt saying you can’t take this team for granted. This was a hard fought win.
Jamal played badly, in my opinion, even though he scored 17. He was tentative, turned the ball over when he should have shot it. I think it was just playoff jitters. Now he can relax and realize that it’s just another ball game, something I’m great at playing. He played great defence, though.
Great win, Hawks, despite the 3rd qrt meltdown.
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
8:11 pm
exactly Bob..
people.. dont act as if this game couldnt have been lost…
drmaryb
April 17th, 2010
8:12 pm
Hawks got tired in that 3rd
Big Ray
April 17th, 2010
8:13 pm
Jon Barry is a hater…
Hawks win by 10 despite offensive malfunctions.
1 down, 3 to go! I want a sweep!!!
drmaryb
April 17th, 2010
8:18 pm
Jon Barry is a hater because he sucked as a Hawk. Last I checked his jersey aint hanging from nodody’s rafters!
O'Brien
April 17th, 2010
8:22 pm
northcyde,
cosign. Bad move on Skiles leaving Jennings on the bench so long in the 4th. This is a playoff game, and game 2 is not until Tuesday.
Bucks fans should be upset at Skiles.
As for the media love of LbJ, I’ve some to expect nothing less. Cavs can do no wrong, but if the Hawks do it, you’ll never hear the end of it from these ESPN analysts…
RaJaH
April 17th, 2010
8:23 pm
Did anyone else just catch that shot at Atlanta by the announcers?
2009-2010 BLOG FANTASY CHAMPION!
drmaryb
April 17th, 2010
8:27 pm
Michael Beasly got some fresh new corn-rows! Will someone please send him the memo:
Corn-Rows are out of style & to check back in 20 years?
Blast
April 17th, 2010
8:29 pm
Jamal is only going to play better. Then it’s, Let’s Go, Hawks!
Bibby won the game for us tonight. His 10 points over his season average was the difference. I think he should have shot the ball more.
Still ain’t heard from those Bibby haters yet. I knew the old, fat coon still had something left in the tank. Playoffs is when it counts, baby.
Barry said Bibby was not happy about his minutes being cut in the reg season. Every report I saw or read speaks to the contrary. Is he trying to start another nasty Hawk rumor?
cdog
April 17th, 2010
8:30 pm
listen to those dummies at espn you would have thought the hawks had lost the first game.they expected the hawks to play a perfect game, something that no other team has done in the playoffs.oh well, jon barry still hates the hawks for getting rid of him.but we should take care of milwaukee then do the same to orlando or charlotte.
Grandad
April 17th, 2010
8:38 pm
*Only 11 off. reb.
[Deers had 11, this was supposed to be our advantage]
*Marv played well – [TEAM-ball]
‘We seemed to play better with him on the floor’ **TODAY**
*Beautiful half ct. ‘TEAM’ off. 1st half.
[2nd half ??? Iso] Why?
[because someone said that's the way a 'SS' does it.]
(”Joe involve teammates in 1st half, then take over in the 2nd”
e g / Jordan & Kobe)
*2nd half def. – Where did it go?
*Joe post-game interview – 2nd half / lost focus / How many times…?
*Congrats to Wdsn for havin’ them ready!
*Big Al – ‘Mad Hatter’ – Was it 5 or 6 blocks?
Big Ray
April 17th, 2010
8:39 pm
We beat them in every single category, except steals and turnovers (difference of 1).
Blast
April 17th, 2010
8:39 pm
Celtics might be in trouble. Hawks came charging out of the gates, and barely held on to beat the Bucks. Same with Cavs, Bulls. If Miami keep this game close to the end, Wade might pull out an upset!
bigdave
April 17th, 2010
8:40 pm
why they put all that make up on Eric Snow..? like they were about to put him in a casket…
Grandad
April 17th, 2010
8:40 pm
Big Ray – I was just havin’ fun.
I knew what you were doin’.
O'Brien
April 17th, 2010
8:42 pm
Another guy who migh be available this offseason is Udonis Haslem. I would love to see him as a Hawk next year.
For Miami to sign Wade and another max free agent, Haslem might have to be renounced (or resigned at a discount). So if I’m the Hawks, I’m keeping an eye on him.
I’m rooting for the Heat to beat the Celtics. Heat up 1 at the end of the first