Atlanta Hawks: On Magic Tricks and Josh’s Jumpers
Nice write-up by Ken S. today on the Hawks’ issues stopping Dwight Howard and the Magic. Also a compelling counterpoint at Hoopinion (thanks to commenter GMAN013 for pointing it out) stating that the Hawks’ problems against the Magic have “less to do with defensive game plans than Atlanta’s complete and utter inability to score against the Magic.”
Josh Smith shooting from where he's most effective. (Curtis Compton, ccompton@ajc.com)
But instead of adding my two cents to those takes, I’m going back to something I wrote about on Monday and have been trying to get my head around since. Why does Smoove continue to take jump shots when he’s only making them at a 37 percent clip at 28.3 effective field-goal percentage? Emailer Aaron, citing Hoopdata.com, broke it down even further: “Josh Smith is shooting 28.5% (28% after the Bucks game) on jumpshots in the 16-23 feet range. His career 3 pt% is 26.6%, meaning the decision to take long 2pt jumpshots over 3pt shots has cost the Hawks 21 points this season.”
Clearly Josh is just not good at shooting jumpers. Apparently everyone but Josh can see that he should stop taking them. How can he say he doesn’t notice when fans groan as soon as he catches the ball on the perimeter and looks at the basket. Heck, they dang near yell at him when he starts his windup. Why would he think “it will get better” when it’s not? How can he say he takes jumpers because they are available when the reason they are available is because opponents want him to shoot them? They get a double bonus because he’s very likely to miss and he’s nowhere near the rim for the rebound.
Then again, how can I be asking all these questions about a guy who’s been the most consistent Hawks performer all season? (Though I noticed Al lately has overtaken Josh to lead the Hawks in both on-court, off-court influence and adjusted plus-minus.) Honestly, I felt kind of jerky asking Josh why he takes jumpers. It felt like nitpicking at what might be the only consistent, glaring negative in his game this season. But because it’s so glaring and consistent I had to find out his thinking on the subject but instead of clearing things up it only confused me more.
Woody doesn’t really harp on the issue when I ask him about it. At first Smoove said Woody tells him to drive to the basket “all the time” but then added he doesn’t get on him too much “because he knows I play hard at both ends.” And I understand that but it’s got to be hard watching plays like that 20-footer he missed when the Hawks trailed San Antonio 101-97 the other night. Are decisions like that going to cost the Hawks in close playoff games?
I don’t understand why Josh keeps shooting jumpers but maybe it’s as simple as the more everyone thinks he can’t the more he thinks he can.
“I’m a confident player,” he said. “I believe in myself, not what somebody else believes in me.”
At this point, the Hawks might just need to hope Josh watches film again this summer and decides on his own he needs to quit taking those long jump shots.
– Ken S. has the game tonight.
MC
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559 comments Add your comment
dstdeelite
March 24th, 2010
4:57 pm
@Westurd…..ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dstdeelite
March 24th, 2010
4:58 pm
Venom…..have you been watching Skip Bayliss? too funny.
Hawk n the Ham
March 24th, 2010
5:05 pm
@Westurd – I think it should be the other way around. Could you imagine how slow Bibby would be with someone on his shoulders?
newkid
March 24th, 2010
5:11 pm
Hey wait a minute. VenomSpitter, is that moniker a take-off on a post from yours truly last week? How dare you.
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
5:14 pm
newkid if u used that b4 then I must not of saw it. Besides people use to call Jason Kidd, Ason becuz he couldn’t hit the ocean with a rock if he was in a boat.
HawksFan11
March 24th, 2010
5:17 pm
Who’s going to the game tonight. See you there.
GO HAWKS!
Rod from College Park
March 24th, 2010
5:19 pm
From the last blog……
Wabe,
Not saying we should phase Horford out, but obviously Horford has problems scoring over Howard in the post. He needs to take advantage of the pick and pop jumper. Going in the post will not work for him against Howard on a consistent basis.
Ken Strickland,
Miami, and other teams are successful going in the post against Howard because the have players who have polished post moves (O’Neal) in the paint. Horford has not developed that part of his game yet. They also have guys who are bigger or just as big as Howard. Al is shorter and weighs a lot less. If you ever played any organized ball, you would understand that that is not a good matchup for Horford in the post offensively or defensively. Horford might be successful down there if he had a polished post game like Hakeem, but he does not have that yet. His best bet will be to pick and pop. Howard is a much bigger stronger and longer Josh Smith on the defensive end. NBA is about exploting bad matchups, not trying to post the best defensive center in the league with a guy who has no post moves. Take advantage of what you are good at, don’t try to disprove something that is proven.
HarveyPritchard
March 24th, 2010
5:20 pm
Josh has taken quite a bit of criticism in his career (most of it constructive) but you can rest assured that if smoove dedicates himself to excellence this off-season (whether the hawks win the nba championship or not) (I personally think they are going to win the championship), however if they dont, should josh take my suggestion and practice shooting 10 thosand jump shots per day during the off-season, when next regular season rolls around JOSH SMOOVE WILL BE THE EQUIVALENT OF LABRON JAMES. I hope josh goes ahead and moves his game up to the next level because HE WILL BECOME A SUPERSTAR IF HE DECIDES TO DO IT.
Michael Cunningham
March 24th, 2010
5:21 pm
@newkid: i think he feels the love. it’s not like he’s getting booed for the long jumpers. it’s more like nervous grumbling.
@OMac town: you think that duck-in running hook from the right block is horrible? i think it’s dang near unblockable.
newkid
March 24th, 2010
5:22 pm
I meant the moniker ‘VenomSpitter’. Could be I subliminally plagiarized your moniker last week. If so, sorry.
Nick S
March 24th, 2010
5:24 pm
Does anyone remember the Thanksgiving game against Orlando when we were beating the brakes off them in the first half?? Does anyone remember what strategy we used then because obviously we need to try and do that again. Also if “THE BOSS” plays like he did in the second half of the San Antonio game D.Howard will have his hands full on both ends of the court. And can someone explain to me why JSmoove cant get to the rim against Rashard Lewis, is he that good of a defender? If JSmoove plays “his” game tonight we should be fine. Finally i would like to say to any of the hawks players that are reading this blog: Please don’t be afraid to cause a ruckus tonight period. Get in their face, throw some elbows if you have to. That way even if you lose they will realize they are going to have to fight in the playoffs. GO HAWKS!!!
WonderDawg
March 24th, 2010
5:47 pm
I’d rather Josh shoot 20 footers than free throws. At least I can rationalize that a lot of NBA big men can’t make 20 footers. But most everyone makes at least 70% of free throws. That being said, we wouldn’t have won 20 games this season without Josh. We got to take the bad with the wonderful.
Go Josh! Go Hawks! Wipe the smirks off the Magic tonight!
northcyde
March 24th, 2010
5:50 pm
@ Rod
Right on the money about Horford’s post up game. It’s simply not polished enough to be effective against Howard. I want to see if Al does what he said he’s going to do in that AJC article yesterday. He said that he was going to go at Howard a little faster wen he got the ball in the post. I want to see if he does that, to see if he can pick up a cheap foul or two on Dwight.
@ O’Brien
You’re right on the money too. Those missed FTs, coupled with both Marvin and Crawford now showng up as outside shooters, have killed us against Orlando.
A lot of this vs Orlando simply has to do with us not executing . . . not because Orlando is vastly superior. I don’t know why our jumpshooting goes extra cold vs the Magic, but it does.
- The Thanksgivng night game, we play an excellent 1st half, only to go ice cold in the 2nd half, only scoring 25 points.
- The 1st January game, our starters play them even, but their 2nd team completely outplays our bench and then our starters, to blow that game open.
- The 2nd January game, we play them virtually even for a half, then Dwight turns into Superman and takes the game over. Meanwhile, just like in the Thanksgiving game, no one can make a shot for a 6 minute stretch, which allows them to balloon the lead to double digits, and not look back.
People may not like this, but JJ may very well have to take 25 shots again tonight, just to keep us going offensively. If our frontcourt sows any signs of struggling, he and Crawford have to look to take the game over, to keep the game close.
northcyde
March 24th, 2010
5:56 pm
LOL . . I hate trying to speed type on my phone/PDA. So many typos.
KevinA
March 24th, 2010
6:31 pm
On the subject of jump shots, I hope Al takes many of them. If he is hitting, Howard will come out to guard him. ZaZa also. Feed a big – get a win.
bigdave
March 24th, 2010
6:34 pm
i think a lot of peoples perception of Josh is outdated…
truthfully i dont see the “Rasheed Wallace” in him, he could’ve potentially gone that route but has chosen otherwise. he’s simply Josh Smith. i value the progression w/ in his game. he has illustrated that he is not just an athlete, but a skilled player. you dont bottle his talent up and ask him to due what others do because that creates ceilings for his potential. im guilty of wanting him to be more of a Gerald Wallace but Josh is not of that cloth. Josh can be elite. even his decision making has gotten better and is a pass first player who always looks for his teammates versus the forced attempt. i think a lot of the forced jumpers stem from frustration due to a lack of touches. he forced a jumper late against the Bucks simply b/c he didnt get the ball when he asked for it in the post a possession before. if we had a system that did not promote selfish play and more ball sharing and player involvement you would probably would see a lot less of the jumpers from Josh. rather if its by choice or due to a forced situation. Josh shooting or having to shoot long jumpers support why i often say that by (design) our players arent put in positions to succeed or play to their strengths. however, i do credit Woodson for giving Josh range to grow. id like to see Josh continue to work on his shot, shoot it with confidence, and never limit his game just to play w/ in himself.
he cant simply drive the ball each time he touches it…
Joshfan
March 24th, 2010
6:47 pm
Does anyone know how many attempts he takes per game outside of the paint? I think the number is low, but I have to admit I do not know that for sure. I believe he would say that he is only shooting from outside when his man is sitting in the paint waiting for him or doubling down on Joe. He is trying to set up his inside game.
Dominique was not a great shooter until about year three. I remember cringing as hoisted up the threes. He really worked during the offseasons. Josh is a much better player this year than in previous years.Maybe he will develop the jumper during this offseason. He is still young.
O'Brien
March 24th, 2010
6:47 pm
northcyde,
And thats the problem for the Hawks. We need Crawford to have a big game to help JJ out, but for some reason, he has struggled against the Magic.
If we give Al a few chances against Howard, and he misses or gets blocked, and Josh is not able to help him out either, then I am ok with JJ taking 25 shots (assuming he’s shooting a good percentage). Plus that might open things up for Al and Josh a little bit.
I dont care how we win this game, I just want to win and beat the Magic.
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
6:54 pm
I hate to see Josh Smith take a jumper and miss it. But it happens.
I think Josh should take less jumpers in games, but I cannot advocate him abandoning the jumpshot altogether. He needs to work like a demon on it over the summer, then come back and start hitting them in games.
It’s all well and good for him to hit jumpers during shootarounds. D-leaguers can do that. Hitting them in scrimmages/practices and then hitting them in games is a different story.
I don’t hear anybody complaining about Horford developing his jumpshot and shooting it, and he’s the center. One day, Josh won’t be the most athletic player on the floor. One day, he won’t be able to run past or jump over everybody. One day he’ll come up against a team (wait until the playoffs) that will take away the driving lanes. What then? Oh wait, I forgot, we have guards for those shots, and they are guaranteed to be open every single time. And we shouldn’t be disappointed when they miss, even if other guys are open and they’re trying to shoot over a double team.
I want to see Josh Smith grow and expand his game. Not at the cost of the team, that’s not what I’m saying. I repeat again: he needs to take far fewer jump shots in games, and work on that jumper in the offseason. Never shoot a jumpshot again in his life? NONSENSE. Only if you are an unstoppable force in the post or driving to the hoop. And guess what? 15ppg does not indicate an unstoppable force. If it does, then you’ve been swimming in all those nicky neat little stat sites for way too long.
One more thing. Why in the world do people yap all day about Josh needing to drive to the hole every single time he gets the ball……only to turn around and say he can’t dribble? Make up your damn minds!
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
6:55 pm
I also think Astro Joe and Bigdave have had some of the most reasonable and cognitive posts on this subject.
KevinA
March 24th, 2010
7:04 pm
Guards shooting jumpers should be our reward for attacking the basket, feeding our big’s and good team ball movement. Not the other way around.
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:08 pm
How bad we getting beat tonight?
northcyde
March 24th, 2010
7:09 pm
I’ll just say this before this game really cranks up. I think if we beat them, we’ll beat them convincingly. It won’t be any doubt who was the better team on the floor tonight.
So if we win, the score will be something like:
Hawks 108
Magic 95
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
7:11 pm
I think Al Horford has it right: we must attack Orlando, instead of waiting to see what they do, then trying to defend it. It’s what our mentality has been all this time, and we can’t keep this up.
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:12 pm
good start lol
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
7:12 pm
KevinA,
Quite a concept, eh?
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:13 pm
Barnes is a nasty looking dude
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:13 pm
Here we go lol. Howards first fts
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:14 pm
Didn’t take long
O'Brien
March 24th, 2010
7:14 pm
Did I just see Horford on Vince Carter?
And we can’t get the rebound. Come on Hawks. We have to crash the glass.
But thats why you foul Howard. he shoots .60% from the Ft line
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:15 pm
See Josh witha stupid jumper
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:15 pm
So I see we’re still switching. Alright then this is another loss
o.O-Mac-Town -Macon, Georgia- Westsider-O.o
March 24th, 2010
7:16 pm
1017 Brick Squad so far out there
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:16 pm
LOL this game is over in the 1st 2 mins
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:16 pm
People need to just sit down lol
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:16 pm
lol howard just pushed horford big time
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:17 pm
finally
o.O-Mac-Town -Macon, Georgia- Westsider-O.o
March 24th, 2010
7:17 pm
lol barnes on bibby in the paint
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:18 pm
brick fest
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:18 pm
Pathetic. Here’s woody with some great coaching NOT
Taylor
March 24th, 2010
7:18 pm
hawks on fire
Hawk n the Ham
March 24th, 2010
7:18 pm
Hawks 1 for 8. Niiiiicceee!
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
7:18 pm
So, ummmm….out of all the missed jumpers we’ve taken in this game so far, how many were by Josh Smith?
What’s that? Just one? Huh….
Hawk n the Ham
March 24th, 2010
7:20 pm
I hope Woody draws a pizza on that dry board.
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:20 pm
Big Ray the point is that Osh Smith doesn’t need to take any LONG JUMPERS. Why don’t ya’ll get that????
Ree Roe
March 24th, 2010
7:20 pm
I don’t understand why we shoot so poorly against this team…it’s baffling, but we need to get the ball inside & get to the FT line
-fREE Roe!
VenomSpitter
March 24th, 2010
7:20 pm
Hawk n the Ham If Woody drew a Pizza Jason Collins would eat it
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
7:21 pm
VenomSpitter ,
I do get that. I’m not telling him to shoot those, and I agreed that he shouldn’t take so many.
But you missed MY point.
o.O-Mac-Town -Macon, Georgia- Westsider-O.o
March 24th, 2010
7:21 pm
Manhandled
Big Ray
March 24th, 2010
7:21 pm
Nevermind…