Hawks at Thunder, AKA Could You Help a Beat Writer Out?
The debate over Iso-Joe got me to thinking, and that’s always dangerous. Wouldn’t it be cool to have some numbers that shed some light on the effectiveness of Iso-Joe?
So it’s my hope going forward to track the results of fourth quarter Iso-Joe situations, defined as any play where it appears the primary aim is for J.J. to take his man one-on-one in a set halfcourt. The possible results are a made shot, missed shot with defensive rebound, missed shot with offensive rebound, turnover, assist, foul with no free throw or foul that leads to a free throw, all by either J.J. or a teammate (holla if there is a possible result I’m missing).
Some of you stat types might know a better resource than me, but the best fourth-quarter numbers I could find are these ‘08-’09 breakdowns at 82games.com. They are interesting but they don’t say anything about this season, nor do they break it down by play type or possessions. So I think tracking this myself is the best way to go about it.
But I need your help tracking Iso-Joes for two reasons. One is transparency–I wouldn’t want you to think I’m juking the stats. Another is expediency-sometimes I’ve got a lot of things going on during games and maybe I miss an Iso-Joe here or there. If I post my Iso-Joe numbers and lots of you have something different, we can work that out, agree on the numbers and move on.
My goal is to have a quantitative way to evaluate Iso-Joe by the end of the regular season (that’s 36 more games counting tonight). Maybe no meaningful conclusions come out of it. It could be that we end up with a weak sample size. The inability to compare Iso-Joe numbers going forward to games already played is a drawback. It also might be more illustrative to compare the results of Iso-Joe to the other play types the Hawks run in the fourth quarter but, to be honest, I think that might just be too ambitious and time-consuming for me on deadline. But if any of you want to give it a shot, I’m down.
At the very least the numbers we come up with can be part of the Iso-Joe conversation. Even if that amounts to pointing out all the ways they aren’t useful, that’s something, right? Because then we are talking about what else should be considered and doing our best to analyze Iso-Joe. Anyway, let me know if you think I’m onto something and if you are willing to help me out.
– I’m not on the road with the team, so I’ll be watching it on television like most of you. It’s not the best situation, but is what it is, you know? I’m still going to do the best postgame blog I can even though it’s better to get locker room perspectives.
– Talk amongst yourselves, Hawks fans.
MC
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265 comments Add your comment
JeJe
February 3rd, 2010
12:22 am
THIS IS A SOFT BASKETBALL TEAM
NO ONE COMMITS A HARD FOUL ON DURANT? WHERE IS THE INTENSITY/THE PASSION
MARVIN 4 POINTS? ARE YOU SERIOUS? BIBBY LOSE SOME DAMN WEIGHT YOU FAT HUNK OF LARD. JESUS. I HAVE NEVER SEEN SOMEONE REGRESS SO BADLY.
HORFORD, ARE YOU GONNA LET KRSTIC GET EVERY REBOUND? ALL STAR MY ASS. ZAZA COULD’VE REBOUNDED BETTER THAN YOU
WE JUST GOT SWEPT BY A TEAM FROM FREAKING OKLAHOMA CITY. WHERE THE HELL IS THAT
okc_bornNraised
February 3rd, 2010
12:29 am
Obviously Oklahoma City is in Oklahoma…. idiot.
Dante Fitzgerald
February 3rd, 2010
12:39 am
FIRE MIKE WOODSON!!!
northcyde
February 3rd, 2010
12:55 am
I love how Ken S. always tries to come up with the absoute worst possible stretch of games record wise, to try to prove his point about how the Hawks aren’t this or that.
Earlier in the year, the Hawks had their first taste of adversity, losing 4 out of 6 games. Of course, Ken was screaming to the hills about the same thing he’s talking about now.
Even though we were a 13 – 6 ballclub after 19 games, all he wanted to focus on, was the 4 out of 6 game losing streak.
LOL . . . but now, he’s going back 22 games in which we’ve played .500 ball, to try to prove his point.
Of course, if you go back 29 games, I believe our record is 18 – 11.
As for the game, we lost because we gave up 17 offensive rebounds. If it weren’t for JJ, we wouldn’t even been close enough to steal the game at the end.
And for all of the people bagging on Marvin ( in which they should ), he was tied for the lead in rebounding . . . with 6.
Now the question is . . where was the effort on the defensive boards from Smoove and Horford? Those guys can’t afford to take nights off on the boards. They have to battle every game.
slick
February 3rd, 2010
1:22 am
OKC fan here.. thought you guys should have gone more to Josh Smith isolation against Jeff Green. By my count, Smith had four successful plays against Green (two ‘and 1’s) and one that would have been successful but Nenad Krstic stripped him at the basket. Joe Johnson was unbelievable tonight for you, but I don’t think he had any points in the last six minutes after Thabo Sefolosha came back in. Smith vs. Green was your guy’s best matchup down the stretch..
Ken Strickland
February 3rd, 2010
1:34 am
It seems when someone makes a valid, but unflattering statement about Woodson, some people get overly sensitive and start putting words in the mouth(s) of the one(s) making the valid point. PLEASE REPRINT ANY STATEMENT MADE BY ME THAT SAID ANYTHING ABOUT FIRING WOODSON BEFORE THE END OF THE SEASON? IN FACT, IN AN EARLIER POST I MADE A POINT OF SAYING IT WOULD BE UNFAIR TO THE TEAM AND THE PERSON REPLACING HIM TO MAKE A CHANGE BEFORE THE SEASON ENDED. However, acknoledging that fact would prevent you from venting your misplaced anger and burying your heads even deeper in the sand when it comes to Woodson.
WABE-if Boston isn’t improving they certainly will be. You see, their major issue can be traced to a series of serious injuries to key players. That hasn’t been the case with us. We’re now 30-17 after 47 gms, and last yr at this point, we were 27-20. Considering we have the same starting 5 as last yr, no injuries compared to last yr at this time, plus we’ve added more size, speed, experience, versatility and depth to our bench, wouldn’t you expect us to be further ahead of last yrs pace? Plus, neither Boston, Orlando or Cleveland are playing at last yrs pace.
Woodson’s hangups, overall coaching and limited OFF/DEF systems have started to take its toll and create inconsistency, which is starting to drag this team down. The inconsistency this team suffers seems to correspond with the inconsistent play of PG MBibby. When the team is sluggish and/or shooting poorly, he does absolutely nothing to energize the OFF, other than turn control of the ball and the OFF over to JJ and then float around the perimeter.
JJ is as big and as strong, if not bigger and stronger, than most players who try to defend him. Plus, when he has the ball, penetrating and getting into the lane is always his first option. As long as JJ’s been with the Hawks, Woodson has yet to figure out it would be better, as well as save time, to post him in the paint. What’s the advantage of having him pound the ball on the perimeter and going ISO and one on 5?
If he’s posted, he could, (1)draw double teams, (2)pass out of the double team so the ball can swing to the open shooter.
Hell, we need a HC that actually gives a damn about OFF and isn’t obcessed with playing MBibby extended mins.
vava74
February 3rd, 2010
7:06 am
My take on yesterday after sleeping over it:
1. Woody had it wrong when he did not adjust to the opponent again: when we are giving up too many offensive rebounds to OKC we should have stop switching and clamp down the rebounding.
2. Although JJ had a terrific game, it is not that frequent that when a player capitalizes the offense the team gets the win. We should have gone to Josh and Al even if that meant taking the risk of losing the game.
Players who are involved on the offense tend to work harder on defense and on rebounding.
3. The refs killed us. Simple examples? Charging foul by Westbrook on Josh converted in 2+1, Sefolosha hitting
vava74
February 3rd, 2010
7:18 am
Sefolosha hitting JJ’s arms when he was dribbling several times resulting in turnovers and on the other side, JJ’s defense on Durant resulted in fouls being called.
vava74
February 3rd, 2010
7:31 am
I think we need to shake up the line up.
I continue to thing that my suggestion of yesterday, made on the Hawks’ Nest should be tried:
Start Mo at the SG slot (his natural position and where he does not give up size). He is sufficiently good when plays significant minutes but is a poor performer with limited minutes. Also, this would not give up too much ground on defense.
Put JJ on the SF slot where he can play point forward with Bibby and Mo lurking around the 3 point line.
Crawford in for Bibby as soon as Bibby shows that either he is not shooting well or is giving too much ground on defense.
If Bibby is working well, Crawford can get in for Mo. Bibby should be limited to 22/28 minutes to keep him fresh and used as a steadying element and 4th quarter sniper.
Feature Marvin as the second team’s offensive focus – playing 20/22 minutes – against lesser opponents in order to see if he gets out of his slumber.
Get Teague to play around 16/20 minutes to close the 1st quarter and start the 2nd and to finish the 3rd and start the 4th.
Play Collins instead of Zaza in order to see if his bulk helps closing down the lane and get more rebounds.
Put Zaza in a suit for a couple of weeks watching video montages of russian soldiers invading Georgia wearing D12 jerseys.
terrell
February 3rd, 2010
8:06 am
Remember how everyone was praising Sund a while back? The trade for Crawford was an excellent move, I agree. But tying up nearly 12 mill a year for Zaza and Marvin, was a horrible move. Just horrible. Morris can give us as much production as Zaza can. And ANYBODY can take over for Marvin, and we wont miss a beat. Still dont know why we just didn’t let him play out his 1 year deal, before giving him a new contract??.
terrell
February 3rd, 2010
8:06 am
Pacers trying to move Troy Murphy. How bout Marvin and Zaza for Murphy and a player?
ltdbrave
February 3rd, 2010
8:18 am
I agree with terrell. Why Sund signed ZaZa and Williams is beyond me. Contribution to the team is minimal at best. Marvin is not a pro basketball player of any caliber nor is ZaZa. With ZaZa’s height, he should be clogging the lane and gathering in rebounds. Trade both of them and get someone who can and wants to play the game.
papason100
February 3rd, 2010
9:04 am
It boils down to this, Marvin,Bibby and ZAZA got paid and have no more need to play because it isnt a contract year. More incentive based contracts need to be used so players cant give a halfa@# effort..
ltdbrave
February 3rd, 2010
9:27 am
Amen papason100
Ken Strickland
February 3rd, 2010
3:16 pm
VALVA74-your 7:06am and 7:31am posts are dead on, and explain perfectly why Woodson isn’t the right HC for this team at this juncture of the teams development. He immediately snatches Teague out of gms and punishes him, by playing him very limited mins thereafter if at all, if he makes a mistake. If he has a good gm, Woodson refuses to reward his good effort by giving him adequate followup mins, and will often not play him at all.
Then we have the beloved MBibby, who can do no wrong in Woodson’s eyes, and the eyes of some of our more delusional fans. They have their cache’ of weak excuses for wanting to keep giving him extended mins and keeping Teague firmly routed to the bench. LIKE:
(1) The OFF runs much smoother when Bibby’s in the gm. THEN WHY ARE WE SEEING SO MUCH DAMNED ISO JOE AND ISO CRAWFORD, LONG PERIORDS OF SCORELESSNESS DOWN THE STRETCH AND LIMITED BALL MOVEMENT?
(2) He protects the ball and has few turnovers. WHY WOULDN’T HE HAVE FEW TURNOVERS, SINCE HE DOESN’T PENETRATE, SPENDS MOST OF HIS TIME ROAMING THE TOP OF THE KEY, AND TURNS CONTROL OF THE BALL AND THE OFF OVER TO JJ AND CRAWFORD MORE THAN HALF THE TIME.
(3) He makes key baskets. HE’S BEEN SO DOGGONE INCONSISTENT THIS YR HE’S HAD TROUBLE MAKING BASKETS PERIOD, LET ALONE KEY BASKETS.
THESE ARE THE ISSUES I HAVE WITH BIBBY STARTING OR PLAYING SO MANY MINS OVER TEAGUE.
(1) A quality PG makes certain the ball and the OFF continues to flow whenever he’s on the floor. BIBBY DOESN’T DO THAT.
(2) When the OFF is stagnant, and/or the outside shots aren’t falling, a quality PG redirects the OFF focus and goes inside by either penetrating and dishing or calling plays that will post up his Bigs inside. WE’VE SEEN BIBBY REFUSE TO DO ANY OF THAT, EVEN WITH WOODSON YELLING FOR IT TO BE DONE FROM THE SIDELINES.
(3) A quality PG applies pressure on the ball, or at least tries to do so. NO COMMENT NEEDED HERE, OR WHENEVER DEF IS MENTIONED IN REGARDS TO BIBBY.
(4) Whenever the team is sluggish, a quality PG does something to energize the team and get it going. WE’RE STILL WAITING FOR THAT TO HAPPEN WITH BIBBY. HELL, USUALLY IT’S BIBBY THAT NEEDS TO BE ENERGIZED.
Remember how often Hawk fans have talked about what this team would be like if we had drafted CPaul or DWilliams? There have even been recent discussion about us trying to trade for CPaul. Yet, these are some of the same delusional fans who insist on running MBibby, the complete antithesis of both CPaul and DWilliams, out on the floor for extended mins while getting limited results. They claim Teague isn’t ready, and then act like it’s his fault instead of Woodson’s. I firmly believe if we gave Teague the mins Bibby’s getting we’d not only get more overall production, especially on DEF, he’d become much more confident and improved, which would benefit the overall team in the longrun.
Over the last 22gms, in which we’ve won 11 of 22, Bibby has averaged 26.5MPG, 8.3PPG and 4.3APG. We have got to get better OFF production from our starting PG. That’s especially important when you considering he provides virtually no DEF, doesn’t breakdown DEF by penetrating, doesn’t consistently create easy scoring opportunities for others, doesn’t facilitate consistent ball movement, doesn’t consistently include all players in the OFF, and doesn’t consistently maintain control of the ball or the OFF.
Bibby can’t be blamed for all of this, since he’s limited in some areas by his physical limitations. But, to keep playing him extended mins inspite of these issues is on Woodson. He also continues to play Marvin even though he’s not producing on OFF, although he does provide good DEF. Woodson needs to wake up and recognize the need for some changes and adjustments.
Start Teague and let him know he’ll play most if not all of the 1st qtr, unless he gets into foul trouble, and do the same for the 3rd qtr. Start MEvans at SF and bring Marvin off the bench. Marvin, Bibby, Zaza, JSmith and Crawford would be a solid 2nd unit. Of course it won’t mean much as long as Woodson continues to insist on using his traditional 7-8 man rotation. AT LEAST HE NO LONGER COMPLAINS AND USES THE LACK OF DEPTH, EXPERIENCE, VERSATILITY AND EXPERIENCE AS EXCUSES FOR NOT USING HIS BENCH. HE JUST STANDS ON THE SIDELINES BARKING PROFANITY LACED CRAP AT THE OFFICIALS, WHILE CONTINUING TO IGNORE HIS BENCH.