Superman’s return!
Superman has put the entire league on notice with his performance in these playoffs.
HAWKSVILLE - Next time I’ll listen.
In the wake of the Hawks’ being swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals against Cleveland, people that watch NBA basketball as much and as hard as I do kept warning me that Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic would end the reign of the King (LeBron James).
No one was more vocal about it than Tracy Johnson (Joe Johnson’s uncle) of Little Rock, Ark. He warned me several times, and he actually started during the Magic-Celtics series, not to put too much stock in Cleveland’s four-game demolition of the Hawks in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
The “matchups” would carry the Magic, he said. And he was right. The Cavaliers never did find an answer for Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. I’m not sure they made a sincere attempt to find an answer.
Well, there is no answer, at least not a one-man answer, for Howard, who has stolen James’ thunder as the youngest and most promising NBA talent in these playoffs.
Tracy’s warnings went beyond the playoffs, though, extending to the Hawks’ issues in the Southeast Division – if you haven’t noticed already, there’s a big bad bully on the block now in the division and the Eastern Conference and it’s not the King (who remains the most mercurial talent of his generation).
It’s Howard.
Even worse for the Hawks and everyone else, there is no Mickael Pietrus for Howard. Pietrus effectively harassed James long enough on the defensive end to allow the Magic’s other matchup advantages to swing the series. And when given a choice between defending the Magic’s 3-point shooters or double-teaming Howard … the phrase pick your poison doesn’t do it justice.
Now, the rest of the division, the Eastern Conference and perhaps the league (depending on what happens in the NBA Finals) must figure out how to build a team capable of beating Howard’s Magic.
YOU WON’T FIND A SOLUTION FOR HOWARD IN THE NBA DRAFT. No one stacks up physically, shoulder to outlandishly buff shoulder to the former Southwest Atlanta Christian star.
And the measurements from the NBA’s pre-draft combine in Chicago made that abundantly clear. Our friends at DraftExpress (one stop shopping for all things draft) were kind of enough to compile and share this handy chart for our viewing pleasure. To say this draft is light on big bodies would be an extreme understatement.
By my count, there are only 12 players that measured a legitimate 6-9 or taller. Just 12. That’s not exactly a smorgasboard of options for teams in need. The bigger question is where have all the big boys gone?
That shallow pool of bog bodies makes the prospect of locating a quality big man in this draft extremely difficult for teams picking outside of the lottery (teams like the Hawks).
Chasing a big man in the draft can be a dangerous proposition. Exhibit A, Shelden Williams.
Still, I’m hearing rumblings that North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough is one of this draft’s risers right now. The Hawks are in need of help along the frontcourt but I was thinking someone bigger than Hansbrough. Still, if they’re on the board at 19 and have Hansbrough rated higher than any of the point guards available …. it’s happened here before folks (Shelden Williams over Brandon Roy ranks up high in the draft gaffe Hall of Fame). You know it as well as I do. NBA executives always tend to value size over anything else, to their own detriment most times.
My two favorite point guards in this draft, North Carolina’s Ty Lawson and Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn, are nearly identical in every department (a shade over 6-foot, a couple ounces over 195 pounds depending on what they ate for breakfast that day). I’m a lot less interested in their combine numbers than I am in what they do when the big lights come on. And both of these guys get it done come game time.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRAFT CHATTER, FREE AGENT AND TRADE TALK IS HEATING UP around the league. That’s always a good thing for us, since the prospect of something that’s virtually impossible always seems to generate a greater response than anything remotely possible.
The Hawks won’t be the only team scouring the NBA landscape for frontcourt help this summer. Apparently the team that vanquished them in the playoffs is in need of a little updgrde up front as well, per my man Bob Finnan of the News Herald in suburban Cleveland.
One player mentioned in Bob’s story that will no doubt be mentioned in many others as the summer drags on is Hawks reserve center Zaza Pachulia.
Every playoff team in need of a depth along the frontline is going to be interested in a player like Zaza, for obvious reasons (he has the size, experienced and ability needed to play a vital role for a contender plus he’s going to be affordable for most teams because he’ll command a salary around the mid-level exception over the course of the next three or four years – similar to the four-year $16 million deal he just finished up with the Hawks).
The Hawks can ill afford to lose a quality big man like Zaza Pachulia in these trying economic times around the NBA.
Pachulia’s an unrestricted free agent, meaning the Hawks will have to compete to keep him. And I’m not sure he isn’t there most crucial free agent they need to retain because of the dearth of quality and affordable bigs on the market.
I know several of the Hawks’ competitors in the Eastern Conference are interested, I’ve spoken to executives from four teams that have brought his name up in our conversations over the past two weeks.
There are other guys in that realm with higher profiles (guys like Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Chris Wilcox, Joe Smith and others) that are a bit of a risk compared to Pachulia because they’re older and perhaps will command a bit more money (in the case of Wallace).
I thought Pachulia was a monster bargain when the Hawks snagged him initially. The expectations were raised after his first season with the team, when he was thrust into a starting role and flourished after Jason Collier’s sudden and tragic death. Pachulia for anything near the same price right now is an equally monstrous bargain.
I know everyone is always interested in upgrading. But sometimes it’s not nearly as easy you might think to get a better bang for your buck. And whatever you think of Pachulia, he’s a good bargain for a player with his credentials.
BACK TO THE DRAFT BUZZ, the one player’s name that keeps coming up in all the conversations I’m having with people is Jrue Holiday. The UCLA point guard, who has yet to cement his draft situation by hiring an agent, is following in the footsteps for former Bruin and Oklahoma City standout Russell Westbrook.
Both players played alongside a pretty good point guard in his own right (Darren Collison) and both played in the ultra-structured system of Bruins coach Ben Howland, so like Westbrook, there’s likely a lot more to Holiday’s game that we haven’t seen yet.
Holiday’s work at the pre-draft camp, coupled with his fantastic size (6-4 and change and a solid 200 pounds) and tremendous ceiling (he’s just 18) has done wonders for his stock with NBA types. If he decides to stay in the draft, he’s all but worked his way out of the Hawks’ range at 19.
Holiday's stock is on the rise after impressive showings in workouts and at the Chicago pre-draft camp.
While the buzz about Holiday intensifies, the buzz about fellow California teenage point guard Brandon Jennings appears headed in the opposite direction. A less then stellar showing in Italy this past season didn’t help the preps-to-Europe trailblazer’s cause, though I can’t imagine what anyone expected of him making that kind of transition (I’ll be curious to see if their are similar, oversized expectations placed on Ricky Rubio if his first year in the NBA is next season).
Jennings reportedly spurned an offer to work out at the Reebok Eurobcamp (their version of the pre-draft camp), sending NBA executives scurrying to find answers as to why he would pass up an opportunity to “compete” in front of the assembled brass. But what more do you need to see from Jennings to make an adequate assessment of his game?
If you need more on the draft crop, though, check out the athleticism test results from the pre-draft camp (courtesy of our friends at nbadraft.net, yet another fabulous site devoted to all things draft).
SPEAKING OF EXPECTATIONS GONE AWRY, I CANNOT BELIEVE FOLKS ARE STILL groaning about the Marvin Williams-is-not-Chris-Paul madness.
I know it hurts for some of us to do this, even after all these years, but it really is time to let go. Just throw darts at your Billy Knight poster for the rest of your life. But let it go.
And for the record, Marvin wasn’t the No. 1 pick in that 2005 draft. That honor belonged to Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut, who has yet to distinguish himself as anything other than a wanna-be-dominant NBA big man (I’d argue that Toronto’s Andrea Bargnani is looking like a better pick these days).
Marvin’s first four years have been respectable and far from bust material (anyone seen Darko Milicic in a uniform lately? Anyone. Anyone. Bueller?).
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552 comments Add your comment
Ariose
June 6th, 2009
11:05 pm
How many gmaes do we win without JJ then? Exactly, and how succesful have the Raptros been with Bosh? Post-VC? Two playoff berths, same as us. Except, we’re on the rise and they’re underachieving. Melo, can’t be doubled because denver is full of capable weapons, Leboron carried his team sa far as he could. We eliminated D-Wade. As for us? wE were injured and underachieved. If we were at full strength, I don’t see us getting swept and I don’t see the Heat taking us to Seven games.
Ariose
June 6th, 2009
11:18 pm
In My 4:44 pm post I give you this big diatribe about how It’s COACHING and not JJ and you guys STILL want to blame our BEST PLAYER? Come on. Can we be serious. We’de be lucky to win 25 games without JJ. If it weren’t for injuries to Marvin, Josh, and Horford we could’ve won 50+. Butler????? McGee??? Horford has his lunch money, and he’s keepin’ it. If we simply re-sign everybody Add Rasheed, Gerald Green, Our two draft Picks, and possibly Chills or someone else, we win close to 60+ games.
Clyde
June 6th, 2009
11:40 pm
darrell starks I like that team but Dalembert has to start over Horford. It sounds good but I don’t think Woody would like that team that much. I say fire him and lets make it happen.
Ariose our ownership team is too broke to re-sign everyone and add Rasheed and Gerald Green.
FIRE WOODY
G-Man
June 7th, 2009
12:04 am
Hey, I just fired up the trade machine and a Joe and speedy trade for iggy and dalembert worked. Do you think it would work if we threw in out draft pick?
Big Ray
June 7th, 2009
12:33 am
Interesting arguments about trading JJ. Sund would do well to entertain such thoughts, if he hasn’t already. The reason being two-fold at least. If you can get better (and it’s worth the investment), then you do it, particularly if you get SIGNIFICANTLY better and can STAY that way. No one-year rentals, please. Also, as others have noted- JJ is not precisely a lock to stay in town, and while Billy and the ASG were knocking down walls to acquire him….the sentiment may not be the same this time around.
So, better to be prepared for as many scenarios as one can, with more than one (or even two) plans for each. I’m sure somebody will suggest that JJ stands the best chance of making the most money here, with the Hawks. That’s probably true. And as much as this is about money, that’s not ALL it’s about with ALL players. He might want to win more than 40-something games without having to play 40-something minutes every night (an exaggeration, I know, but not far off the mark).
Having said that…Besides the max contract and what not, what makes JJ want to stick around? Something must improve. This past season was the best of the last 5, but is the best yet to come, or have we seen it already? If we have, then the only point in him sticking around is the best chance to make the maximum he can make. At this point, is the guy still as motivated to win?
We can’t judge somebody solely on what they do in the playoffs. But we can’t ignore it, either. The best player on a 47 win team didn’t even come close to his season average. I understand the usual refrain: “He’s tired.” A couple thoughts on that, if I may. One, I recall Woody saying that he rode JJ for so many minutes, so that he could make the all-star team. Okay, so what are we doing here, setting an individual goal in front of a team goal?
Two, there’s JJ talking about how he doesn’t want to come out of the game, and he always wants the ball in his hands, and always likes getting more shots.
Ok, between them, somebody better figure it out. At this point, the two guys who have the most influence on JJ are the same two guys who are contributing the most to the problem. They’re also the two guys most capable of fixing the problem. If you can’t figure it out, the two guys are Woody and JJ.
Woody swears he can’t take JJ out, and JJ doesn’t want to come out. I don’t want to hear anymore about him being damn tired. They can fix this. But they have to want to fix it, and be willing to think outside of that matchbox-sized offensive concept.
Big Ray
June 7th, 2009
12:45 am
Which brings me to another point.
One line of thinking is that we get to the next level by acquiring another high level player of JJ’s caliber, or thereabouts. Let’s put aside what we think it takes to get such a guy. Just concentrate on acquiring such a player, a person who presents as consistent a threat as JJ.
What happens if we can’t go out and get that guy? Does the world end? Will we be cursed to remain a 4th seed at best, forevermore?
If you can’t get a Bosh, Amare, or whomever you fancy, and still have/want to extend JJ, what do you do? You start thinking really hard about dancing with the one you brought. We can add all the “glue guys” and perfect little bench pieces we want. The biggest changes will still need to take place in the starting five, period.
That 1st or 2nd offensive option (and hopefully a solid 3rd) must come from guys in your starting five, although an electric sixth man also fits that bill as the solid 3rd option.
In all honesty, I think this is the way it has to work. Whether it’s a blockbuster trade or a change in roles of the starters (something many of us have screamed about for years) is another story. We’ll find it which way this goes as the summer wears on.
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
12:01 pm
Nire,
Here, as promised, is a comparison of the 5 players whose salary is closest to what we pay Joe Johnson (within $250,000), and a comparison of their production. I’m fully aware that different players, positions, etc. have differing responsibilities, but this is just a “blind test” so to speak. Not making judgments, just comparing production per dollar spent.
Player Sal. Min Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
Dwade 14.4 38.6 30.2 5.0 7.5 2.2 1.34
LeBron 14.4 37.7 28.4 7.6 7.2 1.7 1.7
Melo 14.4 34.5 22.8 6.8 3.4 1.1 .36
Cbosh 14.4 38.0 22.7 10.0 2.5 .87 1.0
JJ 14.2 39.5 21.4 4.4 5.8 1.0 .24
Kmart 14.4 33.6 10.9 5.9 2.1 1.1 .63
Of these 6 players, one (Kmart) is older (31) and on the downside of his career. All of the others, if I’m not mistaken, were given max contracts at roughly the same time.
So here’s the question for you: Who’s getting the best bang for their buck?
How does Joe match up in production with his closest peers?
Remember that he plays more minutes than any of them.
I also said I’d recall a few guys who were giving production near to JJ’s for “a few dollars less”
Here you go:
Caron Butler $9M 20.8 pts. 6.2 reb.
Al Harrington $9.2M 20.7 pts. 6.3 reb.
Devon Harris $7.8M 21.3 pts. 6.9 ast.
Jason Terry $9M 19.6 pts. 3.4 ast.
Andre Iguodala $11.3M 18.8 pts. 5.7 reb.
My contention is not to just “get rid of Joe”, but to look closely at whether or not we’re getting our money’s worth for that big contract. We need to have the clearest possible view of that before we talk about re-signing and for how much.
It was a near consensus on the blog that Joe is a star, an all-star, but NOT a superstar. But right now, he’s getting virtually the same pay as LeBron and DWade. Shouldn’t we question that?
And doesn’t the organization have a RESPONSIBILITY to question it?
terrell barron
June 7th, 2009
12:14 pm
According to the Boston Globe, Donnie Walsh is seeking a sign-and-trade for David Lee.
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
12:14 pm
Wow that was hard to decipher. I’ll try to reformat:
Player Sal. Min Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk
Dwade 14.4 38.6 30.2 5.0 7.5 2.2 1.34
LeBron 14.4 37.7 28.4 7.6 7.2 1.7 1.7
Melo 14.4 34.5 22.8 6.8 3.4 1.1 .36
Cbosh 14.4 38.0 22.7 10.0 2.5 .87 1.0
JJ 14.2 39.5 21.4 4.4 5.8 1.0 .24
Kmart 14.4 33.6 10.9 5.9 2.1 1.1 .63
Big Ray
June 7th, 2009
12:45 pm
Terrell,
That is interesting news. Of course, it could be mis-information, but I kind of doubt it. Lee is a valuable player, but not someone that really fits D’Antoni’s system the way they’ve used him.
Big Ray
June 7th, 2009
12:49 pm
Sautee,
To stir the pot further, another question would be “Is he making his teammates better?”
When you’re paying this kind of money for a guy, he’s either making his teammates better, or simply being the relied-upon big time player who can take over when needed, regardless of what the opposing team does to stop him. Does JJ fit either description?
terrell barron
June 7th, 2009
12:49 pm
1.Trade Josh Smith(10.8 mill), Mo Evans(2.5 mill), Acie Law (2 mill), and Craig Claxton’s contract(5.2 mill) for the Big Aristotle(20 mill).
2.Draft Patty Mills in the 1st, and Jeff Pendegraph in the 2nd.
3.Bring back Chills
Bibby/JJ/Marvin/Horford/Shaq
Patrick Mills/Flip/Chills/Pendegraph/Solo
SE Division Champions!!! It’s that simple. lol!
Melvin
June 7th, 2009
1:33 pm
“The team that made the biggest push for Amar’e back in February was the Memphis Grizzlies in a deal that would have centered around Rudy Gay and providing salary cap relief for the Suns.” – Hoopsworld
Uh, wasn’t it debated on this blog that Gay wasn’t untouchable. Man, I would like to see this guy play alongside Joe, Josh and AL… Hint,hint
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
1:58 pm
Ray,
No doubt.
When we signed Joe, everybody (Joe included) thought that he would be “the man” in the ATL. What we (and mainly the BASG) failed to see was that Joe had the personality of a “born second in command” player. I don’t even think Joe realized at THAT point that he wouldn’t (or couldn’t) be the outright leader that this team needs.
C’est la vie, BUT we see from the extreme ups and downs of this year that we still have a leadership void that obviously Joe (and even Bibby) weren’t able to fill. A true leader would have kept his team from yo-yo-ing up and down to THAT extreme.
And I guess part of our frustration as fans is that AT TIMES……. Joe would be that player (Game 4 against the Celtics). At other times….er, not so much.
O'brien
June 7th, 2009
2:00 pm
tb: A big man who commands a double team and is a good passer would do wonders for Woody’s (lack of) offense. But Shaq for $20 mil? plus before he got to Phoenix, he was injured on and off (and Phoenix gave him nights off suring the season, I dont see Woody doing that). I think thats too much to pay.
I would prefer trading Josh and a couple others for Bosh ($14.4 this year). He is younger and healthier, and if we are wiling to pay him $18-$20 mil when his contract expires, I think he will stay (especially if JJ resigns as well).
Speaking of Joe, do we offer him an extension now (5 years, $80 mil), or do we wait and see how the season goes? JJ and BK were tight, but how is the relationship between JJ and Sund? Maybe Sund doesnt value him as highly as Woody does.
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
2:03 pm
Devin Harris is the featured guard in the system he plays in. That sstem is alos geared twoards his abilites by Lawrence Frank. Obviously, he didn’t have that kind of production in Dallas. You are not taking in to account Coaching and other situational factors (supporting cast, physical capabilities etc.)
Sautee, so if we do an even swap JJ for either Caron Butler, Al Harrington, Devon Harris, Jason Terry, Andre Iguodala.
Igoudala isn’t that great of a shooter and isn’t really a shooting guard. Philly tried that expirement earlier this year and it failed, Iggy wnet back to playing SF. I think we already have enough of those. I’m also pretty sure that Igoudala uderachieved cantractually based on the amount of money he is getting paid. Smoove’s numbers were down but we won 10 more games this season.
Two of the gus on that list Jasin Terry and Al Harrington, we’ve had here in Atlanta before(I’m sure no one wants to remeber those times) So how is that even a valid argement. HERES AN IDEA!!!! LETS TRADE JJ FOR HARINGTON STRAIGHT UP!!!!! YEAH EVEN THOUGH WE’VE ALAREADY SHIPPED HIM OUTTA TOWN FOR SUCKING AND NOT PLAYING ANY DEFENSE. WE OBVIOUSLY DIDN’T GET BETTER WHEN JJ ABSORBED HARRINGTONS TOUCHES RIGHT? OH YEAH I’M SURE OUR RECORD GOT WORSE RIGHT? YES I CAN SEE IT NOW, WE WOULD DEFENETLY WIN 47 GAMES THIS PAST SEASON WITH HARRINGTON INSTEAD OF JJ ON THE ROSTER. EVENTHOUGH WE DIDN’T EVEN COME CLOSE TO WINNING THAT MANY GAMES WITH HIM STARTING ALONGSIDE JJ. IT’S PRETTY EASY TO PLAY FOR DON NESON. NO DEFENSE INVOLVED AT ALL, SO I’M SURE NELLY DIDNT HAVE A VALID REASON FOR WANTING HIM GONE….
Terry is a chucker(like all Arizona Guards brought up under Lute Olsen), and Butler for JJ is such a joke i’m throwing up in my mouth right now from laughing so hard.
How about Billups for JJ, Ginobili, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Kobe, Amare, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, Monta Ellis + Beidrins, Ray allen + Rondo etc. etc.
AND YOU CAN’T SAY JJ IS NOT ON THAT LEVEL BECAUSE HALF OF THE TEAMS THAT OWN THESE PLAYERS WOULD NOT HESITATE TO PULL OF A DEAL LIKE THAT.
G-Man
June 7th, 2009
2:05 pm
Sautee, way to do your homework man!
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
2:15 pm
Sautee, i’m not really yelling at you or anyone else, i’m just trying to prove a point. You say he’s a “second in command” type of Player. I agree with that. In fact, I’d say eveyone in our starting lineup are probalbly “second in command type of players”.
I don’t think that means we get rid of those players though. Nor does it mean we need a superstar. We just need a leader(Chauncey Billups). And it starts at the PG position. I think Patrick Mills is that gup, but thats just my opinion(I guess embarrising some of the most popular superstars in the NBA(in the olympic games) just doesn’t cut if for you guys).
I beleive we can be modled after that 04′ Pistons squad. Realistically we’re almost there. Resigning out Free agents and adding a few more pieces(Sheed/Harris/Heinrich/Gordon, Green, Mills/Ellington/Hansbrough) we will be right there IN SPITE of a lame duck coach.
G-Man
June 7th, 2009
2:15 pm
What about a Kevin Martin and Andres Nocioni trade for Joe and our 19th pick? km could easily replace joe’s production for close to half the money, and andres would be a great player to bring off of the bench.
c- al
pf- jsmooth
sf-marvin
sg-kevin martin
pg- bibby
c-solo
pf-zaza
sf-nocioni
sg-flip
pg-acie
ILL-logical
June 7th, 2009
2:26 pm
Well one area that Mr. Sund and Woodson seem to agree on is that the Pistons of the Chauncy,’Sheed, Ben Wallace years is the model that they are using to build this franchise. Sounds good but is today’s NBA championship attainable using that approach?
Don’t know but if the Lakers hold serve and win this year, I don’t think so. In fact, there will be a run on solid bigs who can run,shoot and defend the paint whoever wins because of the emphasis on post play in the serise so far.
So how will our designated geniuses deal with that state of affairs?
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
3:19 pm
Ariose,
Man go back and read what I actually posted. At NO time have I proposed swapping Joe for ANY one player. Never.
Once again, I’m questioning the production we’re getting from him relative to the money paid out. If the BASG does NOT do this before re-signing Joe than they are even more lame than we all thought. It’s basic business practice.
I’m not saying I WANT any of the players on that list (though I’d take Devon Harris in a heartbeat, but NOT for Joe straight up). I’m pointing out that production relative to cost can NOT be ignored. And that other teams are getting something close to the same production for MANY fewer millions of dollars.
It’s the same as niremetal not wanting (correctly in my opinion) to trade Horford while he’s on a rookie contract. It’s asset management, from a cost perspective.
You saw the figures. If we’re gonna pay JJ that much, then we either need to get more production from him, or he needs to do more to raise the level of his teammates. Once again, we’re paying him virtually the same as LeBron and DWade. Can you sit there and tell me with a straight face that he’s producing like them, or making his teammates better to the same degree?
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
3:43 pm
G man,
Thanks.
And about your trade idea with SAC, 2 things. One, you assume Bibby will be back (which is NOT a certainty) but assuming he is, did he and Martin have any issues in SAC?
And secondly, in Woody’s offense Martin would have the ball in his hands a LOT and he’s much more turnover prone than JJ.
But I like that way of thinking, and I DO like Nocioni off the bench.
terrell barron
June 7th, 2009
3:47 pm
Obrien, Shaq’s contract ends after next season, while Bosh is going to command a longterm deal. Will the ASG be willing to pay both Bosh and JJ longterm? I doubt it. Plus when Shaq comes off the books, we can go out and sign a big time free-agent in 2010. We could then go after Bosh.
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
3:47 pm
Sautee,
I gotta laugh at anyone who puts up stats as the measure of what a player brings to the table. Come on.
How about Isaiah Rider? In his only season with us, he put up numbers that actually were slightly BETTER than what Steve Smith had put up the year before we traded him. Did that mean trading for Rider’s “production” made us better? Of course not. Rider was an awful defender, which the stats didn’t show. And he was a much more selfish player than Smitty, despite the fact that he averaged more assists per game in 99-00 than Smitty had in 98-99.
How about Shane Battier? He doesn’t put up gaudy defensive numbers. But he makes the whole team better defensively because whoever he guards pretty much never needs to be double teamed. JJ has a mirror image of that effect on defense – he ALWAYS needs to be double teamed, which makes the rest of the team more efficient offensively (albeit the overall efficiency is very limited by Woody’s system). To quote a great article on Battier:
For most of its history basketball has measured not so much what is important as what is easy to measure — points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots — and these measurements have warped perceptions of the game.
Of all the guys you mentioned as “bargains” in terms of production, how many of them get double or triple teamed every time they touch the ball? How many of them are even the first option on their team? Terry is option 3 or 4 on a better team. Butler is option 2 or 3 on a far worse team. Harris is option 2 on a far worse team. Iguodala is the only one who is the first option…but he’s on a worse team and is not asked to handle the ball nearly as much as JJ is nor is he ever tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best defender. Still, he is the ONLY one in that bunch who I’d consider trading JJ for. And even then, I probably wouldn’t do it unless I was pretty damned sure we were gonna lose JJ in free agency next summer.
Al Harrington? Please. Ariose covered that. I’ll just add that anyone who plays under D’Antoni and Nellie will put up gaudy stats.
Also, none but Harris is assigned lead guard duties even 10% of the time that he’s on the floor (I’d say JJ is assigned it 40% of the time). Not a single one of the guys you listed is asked to guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player.
To paraphrase Jerry Maguire, none of them are even asked to do anything that’s even remotely close to being in the same vicinity of what JJ is asked to do. And with the exception of Terry (who is asked to do the LEAST of all the people you mentioned), all of them are asked to less on worse teams.
JJ EARNS his 21ppg. His presence on the floor opens things up for everyone else. I admit that he’s not LeBron, Kobe, D-Wade, or even Melo. But I put him easily on the same footing as Bosh and well above guys like Kmart, Rashard Lewis, Iverson (the model that got his most recent extension, not the ‘00 model), Bibby, and most other people who make as much or more than JJ does.
The Magic are overpaying Rashard Lewis, but he’s playing for a ring now. The Celtics are overpaying Ray Allen, and they won a title. If you want to contend for titles, you don’t do it by subtracting guys like JJ just because they come with a hefty price tag. You do it by surrounding them with other guys who play at an All-Star level.
I hope you’re still just playing Devil’s Advocate. Because otherwise, you sound a lot like Clyde, who can’t see past the numbers when he evaluates players.
terrell barron
June 7th, 2009
3:49 pm
Obrie, maybe the ownership situation will be settled by then. By 2010, I mean.
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
4:10 pm
Sautee,
“Man go back and read what I actually posted. At NO time have I proposed swapping Joe for ANY one player. Never.”
I know you didn’t, that was just my arguement. Although stats may be the same from a production standpoint, the end result(wins and losses) will not.
No, I cannot honestly say that Joe does more for his team than those superstars that you listed, but every player has his/her limitaions. Historically, Joe’s is 25ppg. In 2010 when the rest of the young supertars get a significant cash upgrade, I don’t think Joe desrves a FULL upgrade. I do beleive he sould stay within the 14-18 Million dollar range. I also don’t think he will have a problem with this if he is committed to the franchise and wants the organization to add more pieces in order for the Hawks to be successful in the future.
I also beleive that coaching has/is hindering our teams performance at the moment. I do not beleive that our players are being put in the best positions possible in order for them to be successful. That is not Marvin, Josh, or JJ’s fault by any means. Something has got to change. One thing that won’t is the leauges perception of Joe Johnson. The guy is a stud. First one on the court every day in practice and one of the last to leave. He is a true professional, and i’m sure his high character rubbes off on the young guys.
It wasn’t all about the money with Joe. Pheonix played the waiting game with Joe like Sund did with Childress. Joe was offended by this and felt like if the oganization really valued him, they would have offerd him a contract instead of waiting for someone else to name Joe’s value. So when Billy Knight came knocking, Joe felt appreciated and jumed ship. I am of course refrencing the sports south special “Spotlight Joe Johnson”.
I’m sure if Sund puts a reasonable offer on the table EARLY, Joe will not have a problem negotiating a REASONBLE price for his next contract.
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
4:26 pm
Nire, EXACTLY…….Amen….CAN I GET A WITNESS!!!!!!!!
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
4:37 pm
We need a better coach(or a change in his philosphy) and a stronger supporting cast for JJ. Thats it. Like nire said, JJ EARNS his money.
In the games that Joe missed this season, even though we won them, we had to come back from HUGE(20+ points) defecits in order to win, and those we against the bottomfeeders of the leauge.
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
4:38 pm
Nire,
OF COURSE I’m playing Devil’s Advocate. It’s the offseason!
That said, I STILL think that the BASG needs to look at exactly what they are getting for their $14.9M BEFORE offering a max extension.
And of course I agree that Joe gives us some intangibles. Of course he does. Not all positive, but of course he does.
Look, everybody keeps talking about the 04 Pistons as a model. But when Sheed re-signed with them after that season, his pay went DOWN from $16.9M to $9.72M. And that was after winning a championship! That gave Dumars the flexibility to sign McDyess and continue their run for 4 more years.
So if THAT is our model, do you reckon Sund will be asking Joe to take a pay cut? We didn’t even get out of round 2.
“I admit that he’s not LeBron, Kobe, D-Wade, or even Melo.”
But we’re PAYING him virtually what they get paid, right?
Once again, shouldn’t we question that? Or is your manlove for Joe so awesome that you can’t see a valid question when it smacks you in the face?
If he’s PAID like them, but you admit that he’s NOT like them, where does that leave us? Is it not valid to question his pay?
One more question. Do you think it’s likely that Joe will continue to improve, playing the minutes he’s asked to play, or will there be a ceiling to his production?
And WHEN, (once again being mindful of his minutes,) will there be a tailing off?
Doesn’t this NEED to be taken into account by management?
Astro Joe
June 7th, 2009
4:54 pm
If the Hawks have to wait for a proven superstar to join their team before signing someone to a max contract (as opposed to rolling the dice for a player on the come), well, let’s all get comfortable watching the draft lottery each and every year.
O'brien
June 7th, 2009
5:03 pm
Sautee, you raise a very good point. Its all about getting the most bang for your buck. And I agree with Ray. I hope Sund is looking at it from now. Do not wait until next offseason when you might have a bidding war.
Nobody (around the league) is talking about JJ being a free agent next year. All you hear about is Bosh, Wade, LeBron (even Nash). But I think Sund should talk to JJ about an extension (because if he waits until after next season, Joe’s value might go way up. If His value goes down, then that would mean that the Hawks did not have a good year).
Cleveland might need another Robin to go with Lebron in 2010. What if Wade leaves Miami and goes to Chicago? Then Miami needs a SG. Maybe Toronto convinces Bosh to stick around while they go after JJ. If I am Sund, I offer JJ a contract close to what he makes now, and convince him that the money we save on his contract will go towards upgrading the team.
It’s hard to put a number on Joe’s value, because how much of it is due to lack of coaching/lack of an offense/lack of a defensive PG? But I am worried about all the minutes he is playing, and when does his body start breaking down (if Woody continues to ride him)?
My max figure for Joe is 5 years, $80 mil. Sign a PG for less than $6 mil per year (Jack or Sessions), and we should be able to afford to give Bosh $18-$20 mil per year.
Astro Joe
June 7th, 2009
5:04 pm
Sautee, is Joe’s average production below the average production of the maxed-out player? That would be the fair analysis. You can’t take the players at the top end of production and ignore the Marbury’s, Stevie Franchises and Szcerbiak’s at the bottom of it. I don’t know the answer but I do know that if we lose Joe because we don’t want to give our 3-time All-Star and guy who led the team out of a nine year playoff drought an extra $2M/year when he turns 28 or 29, well, I wonder what proven superstar will be anxious to join us to keep us out of the lottery. I suspect that teams hurt themselves more when they give a guy double his production (like AK-47, Dampier or Shaq) as opposed to maybe 15-20% more than he deserves.
ant banks
June 7th, 2009
5:07 pm
i say pull the trigga on a one year rental for bosh!! trade the rights to smoove or and some picks, etc. yeah, there is no guarantee that we can get him to re-up, but what the worst case scenario if he doesn’t? we get 15mil off the books for 2010 season at worst.
jj, bibby (if we can get him), marvin, bosh, horford. you mean we can’t get out of the 2nd round with this line-up? besides, we may be able to re-sign bosh, he does love atlanta and he went to college hear.
Dennis
June 7th, 2009
5:09 pm
Hawks need to take Johnny Flynn if he’s available, or trade up for him. He’s like Chris Paul in a lot of ways, and possibly a better athlete with a better(6′4″) wingspan, & hops. They need to package someone w/their pick to get this guy. He will be the real deal. He’s got the leadership skills. Hawks, listen up!
G-Man
June 7th, 2009
5:14 pm
Dennis, I agree with you 100%. Flynn is the real deal.
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
5:26 pm
AJ,
I took the 5 salaries closest to Joe’s. It COULD have been a Marbury or a Francis, but it wasn’t. I don’t think that’s an unfair way to compare. I didn’t go LOOKING for high production to compare him to. That’s where he fell in the salary scale. So I think it’s absolutely fair to compare his production to players he’s paid the same as. Doesn’t that happen at your place of work?
Look, when we signed Joe to a max contract, we thought we’d get something along the lines of DWade. We didn’t. That doesn’t make Joe a failure in my eyes, it just means that Billy was so eager that he slightly overpaid. But just slightly.
It happens every day in the NBA. The trick is, to correct without over correcting for the NEXT contract.
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
5:39 pm
From Ariose:
“It wasn’t all about the money with Joe. Pheonix played the waiting game with Joe like Sund did with Childress. Joe was offended by this and felt like if the oganization really valued him, they would have offerd him a contract instead of waiting for someone else to name Joe’s value. So when Billy Knight came knocking, Joe felt appreciated and jumed ship. I am of course refrencing the sports south special “Spotlight Joe Johnson”.”
Thanks, Ariose, for the memory.
Poor Niremetal.
Here he is, one of the biggest JJ defenders in the Northern Hemisphere, but HE thinks that “hurt feelings” as a cause for signing a contract is, as he puts it, BS (or at least as it pertained to Childress)!!!!!!
Oh the irony here on the old blog.
It’s delicious!
Nire, is it still BS when it’s your boy Joe saying it?
cp
June 7th, 2009
5:39 pm
I was just reading about how Patty Mills is slipping in the draft. They say he did little in this tournament to change most gm’s mind about his game. They pointed out he did more shooting than actually setting his teammates up. Take it for what its worth.
When Joe was hurt our offense looked better in my opinion. Woodson wasn’t relying on Joe so much so it got other guys involved. I know Joe is the number one option here but those stats Bradley put up of him a few weeks back said a lot. He takes more shots than some NBA stars and Joe is not even close to being a star. I know he is doubled and yada yada yada but people fail to mention how slow he reacts to those double teams, or how he pounds and pounds the ball, or the bad shots he takes. Maybe it is the offense but Joe has to take some blame as well. We really need to get an offensive minded coach in here to get us a real system that way Joe is not asked to do everything and other guys can get involved in the offense. As I said before I just don’t see Joe getting any better. Woodson has ran him down. His shooting percentages are nothing like they once were and for a guy who plays as many minutes and takes as many shots one would think he would produce more. Trying to get the guy into all star games, forcing him to defend other teams pg’s , and running everything through him will catch up to Joe soon if it already hasn’t.
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
6:32 pm
Uh…ok. Way to twist my words. Not even gonna go there. My argument wasn’t that hurt feelings was never the reason for a player to leave a team. My argument was that it wasn’t the actual reason that Childress left. But nice try. I think JJ left Phoenix because he didn’t see himself as a fourth option on offense and thought he could play a bigger role on a winning team than he could if he took lower pay to stay in Phoenix (and four years out, whaddya know – JJ was scoring 21ppg and was the only member of that Suns starting 5 that was still playing in May). I think Chill left because he couldn’t find any NBA team in a position to sign or trade for him to offer him anything close to what he could make in Greece, and so he said “Hey, I’m 25, unmarried, and love to travel – why not take the extra pay, avoid the income tax, and go to Greece for a year or two and hope that some team is willing and able to pay me more when I get back?”
But to answer your “question” anyway, I think that disrespect from the GM is a BS reason to leave a team. If you want to play for a winning team, you look not only at the salary figure you get, but how you best can see yourself fitting in on a team. I think it’s stupid to value your ego more than how much you’ll enjoy the day-to-day job, and I think it’s also stupid to value your ego more than money (and yes, with most people the two can be separated). Jerry Krause probably insulted more players than we can count (including Michael Jordan and Phil Jackson), but there were enough guys willing to deal with it because they realized they could be part of something special if they stayed. So if JJ’s main or only reason for leaving Phoenix was that he was insulted by their low contract offer, then yeah, he was arrogant. Same with Chill and us last year. Same with Marvin if he does the same thing this year. But I don’t buy the idea that hurt feelings actually was the reason JJ or Chill jumped ship. I think it was because JJ thought he was capable of being more than he could be in Phoenix, and Chill had a variety of practical reasons to go. That’s different than just leaving because you feel disrespected in a egotistical sense.
And poor me? I say poor Sautee. So desperate to get some Devil’s Advocacy on the blog that he actually argues that it’s “fair” to compare JJ’s pay with the pay of 4 guys who get paid roughly the same but ignore the 25 people who get paid more, most of whom are pretty much unquestionably lesser players than JJ.
Look at the next 4 above the 5 you misleadingly* (see below) placed alongside JJ. Arenas, Ben Wallace, Odom, and Zach Randolph. Why don’t you put up THEIR numbers and compare? Oh, sorry, that would show how foolish this “production and pay” reasoning is. How about Kirilenko? Vince? Bibby? Redd? Rashard? Marion? Francis? Marbury? T-Mac? Kidd? Iverson? And those are just the players who I submit every GM would dump for JJ in a heartbeat. If I looked at the 10 players below K-Mart, I bet I could find some real beauties.
* In any case, this “pay-based-reasoning” is misleading anyway because of the NBA salary structure and cap rules, which create max amounts that players can get at different stages in their careers and leave how much players get signed to the vicissitudes of fate. JJ was drafted in ‘01. LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh, and Melo all came out all got max extensions from their original teams, which allows for much bigger year-to-year raises. If you made this same chart in 30 days, once the ‘09-’10 become the players’ official salaries, those four would jump way higher than JJ in relative salary. If you made the chart a year ago (when their “productions” were pretty much the same), JJ was actually getting paid $500k more. But it wasn’t because he was “overpaid.” I could come up with infinite examples like that. Snapshots of players salaries for a given year are a horribly misleading way of “comparing” players with the NBA screwed up cap rules and collective bargaining agreement.
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
6:35 pm
That’s right. I just said “vicissitudes.” You got a problem with that?
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
6:55 pm
Gotta go for the night (again). See y’all in a day or two. Until then, stand ye steady and GO MAGIC!!!!!!
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
7:21 pm
Also, JJ was not offerd a contract by the Pheonix Suns. They mad him go and find an offer.
I would be pissed too. JJ was like: “MAAANN, I JUST BROKE MY FACE FOR THIS ORGANIZATION AND CAME BACKE FOR THE PLAYOFFS DESPITE DOCTORS ORDERS TO HELP THIS TEAM AND Y’ALL CAN’T EVEN GIVE ME AN OFFER??? ON TOP OF ALL OF THAT, YOU THREATEN MY POTENTIAL FUTURE EMPLOYERS BY SAYING YOU WILL MATCH ANY OFFER IN AN ATTEMPT TO LOWBALL ME IN A CONTRACT THAT ISN’T WORH MY ACTUAL VALUE??? I WAS WILLING TO WORK IT OUT, I DIDN’T EVEN WANT THAT MUCH. I MEAN I’M ALREADY A MILLIONARE.”
I knoew I wouldn’t want to work for a company that did that to me. You can’t even talk to the boss candidly because he doesn’t give a damn about you…..that would suck. Personally, I would find a new job and quit…and that’s exactly what Joe did.
Billy Knight was one of the only GM’s around the leauge with the balls to offer JJ a fair contract, I don’t even think the suns would havematched it personally.
Sund treated Josh and Smoove the same way. Smooove just has high character and stuck with it because he loves his city, besides, unlike Chills, he was given an offer bforehand, and just choose to find a better one. Luckily smoove didn’t break his face or anything like that last season lol. Or we would’ve had anotehr JJ situation on our hands.
Ariose
June 7th, 2009
7:35 pm
If we just put some better weapons around JJ, he’ll get that single coverage that he loves so much. What did JJ do the last time he got single coverage for the whole season? I think he put up 25ppg if i’m not mistaken.
Waht did JJ do the last time he got single-coverage for a full 48 minutes? I beleive he dropped 41 points on the Bulls…..i’m just sayin’
Kobe got single coverage the other night against Mickael Pietrus and the Magic…..didn’t work out so well for the Magic did it?
Sautee
June 7th, 2009
7:41 pm
“I think JJ left Phoenix because he didn’t see himself as a fourth option on offense and thought he could play a bigger role on a winning team than he could if he took lower pay to stay in Phoenix (and four years out, whaddya know – JJ was scoring 21ppg and was the only member of that Suns starting 5 that was still playing in May).”
Who are we gonna believe, nire or Joe’s lying words? heh heh
Damn, nire, you didn’t even FEEL the hook on THAT one!
Also: if you said this: “I gotta laugh at anyone who puts up stats as the measure of what a player brings to the table. Come on.”
Then why even reference this: ” Look at the next 4 above the 5 you misleadingly* (see below) placed alongside JJ. Arenas, Ben Wallace, Odom, and Zach Randolph. Why don’t you put up THEIR numbers and compare? Oh, sorry, that would show how foolish this “production and pay” reasoning is”????
I guess you laughed at yourself as you typed, eh?
If “production vs. pay is SO unimportant, then why do you say that Horford should be untrade-able in your eyes because of the production we get from him on a rookie contract (which I’ve agreed with on several occasions)?
If production vs. pay is SO unimportant, then why were you ALL OVER Josh Smith for signing a new contract and having his numbers drop across the board?
Wouldn’t be that thinly disguised disdain now, would it?
I’ll say this. I was NOT “cherry picking” stats to bolster an argument. I got curious as to how JJ measured up against others at his pay, so I chose the nearest 5 salaries. Totally arbitrary and I certainly didn’t have the time it would take to do a true statistical analysis. I was VERY surprised to see who the nearest 5 were, because I just don’t keep up with that stuff. Of COURSE there are worse cases, and if any of THOSE had been in the 5 nearest salaries, I would have included them as well. As it was, I inadvertently left off Lamar Odum.
Yes, it’s a snapshot of this year only. But it was what I had and I found it informative. You don’t have to.
I just hope Rick Sund looks at the production aspect (and it’s his JOB to do so) before offering an extension.
Astro Joe
June 7th, 2009
8:08 pm
Sautee, you’re right, it is Sund’s job to base Joe’s next contract based on the market value of his production. That is nothing new. If there are 20 guys making max salaries, why compare Joe to a handful? Why not use the netire set of 20?
And surprisingly, where I work, they compare production across comparable universes of managers. A CIO or HR guy is not typically compared against the Marketing or Sales guy. It’s usually Marketing against comparable disciplines. If the NBA were comparable (and it is), Joe would be compared against other wings as opposed to bigs or PGs. (Since we know that Dampier is FAR overpayed relative to his teammate, Josh Howard but relatively on par with other big men).
I agree that last season, Joe did not earn a “max status” contract. And thus, he will not likely sign a reduced extension, not when he can use the next 80+ games to improve his regular season and post-season (if we make it there) performance. I’d venture a guess that Bosh is in a very similar situation, except he didn’t lead his team to the post-season. Sund is on record as having said “having a guy on the last year of his contract isn’t a bad thing”. If Joe wants another max deal (when he will be competing with Wade, LeBron, Kobe and possibly Amare), then let’s reap the benefits of having him try to earn one in a Hawks uniform.
G-Man
June 7th, 2009
8:10 pm
Sautee, thanks,
After researching, I found martin avg. 2.86 TO this season
Joe avg. 2.47 TO this season.
However,
Career avg. Martin has 1.67 to joe’s 2.23 TO
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
8:22 pm
Sautee,
Alright, I lied. All I’ll say is this: I listed all those guys to prove how misleading it is to just look at people’s salaries out of context in determining whether they are overpaid. I was not advocating it as a valid method of reasoning, as my asterisk footnote at the bottom made pretty clear. I don’t believe ANY salary-based reasoning is a good way to compare players. Because while some people might think that Rashard Lewis is “overpaid” for what he brings if they just looked at salary and production, the Magic are looking pretty damned smart for signing him right now. I would take JJ over Rashard. But I also don’t think Rashard is “overpaid.” You have to look at way more than just salary and production to determine a player’s worth.
niremetal
June 7th, 2009
8:23 pm
And NOW I’m done.
Melvin
June 7th, 2009
8:40 pm
Did anyone else notice how Anthony Johnson chose to standoff from the Magic huddles during timeouts… I can’t blame him, I think its a bad decision by Van Gundy to rush Jameer back into the playing rotation.
Aaron
June 7th, 2009
8:41 pm
Sekou,
I meant to point this out on your last article, but I forgot:
The Hawks don’t have Bird rights on Flip Murray, so even if they sign him as cheaply as they signed Mo Evans ($2.5M/per), then they’ll have to use part of their Mid-Level Exception.
Doing so would leave them no more than $3.5M to sign another team’s FA (I’m being pretty liberal with that total, too). In other words, it’s EITHER Flip or Charlie V, but not both.