All the right moves

The Hawks will have Mike Woodson back for the start of another season in the fall.

The Hawks will have Mike Woodson back to start another season in the fall.

HAWKSVILLE - Hawks coach Mike Woodson is not going anywhere.

Hawks general manager Rick Sund made that clear on at least three different occasions Tuesday, on two different sports talk radio shows in the morning and later to me in his office.

Not that it was an issue or anything (laugh track goes here).

Woodson has one year remaining on his contract and Sund, while not confirming or denying any details pertaining to said contract, insisted that the Hawks would indeed “honor Woodson’s contract.”

(Last summer there was a legitimate question about Woodson’s future since his contract had expired. But when a coach signs a two-year deal, wins 47 games, a top four seed, and guides his team to the Eastern Conference semifinals in the first, questions about his job security, no matter what any of us here think of his performance, don’t register with the folks in charge of hiring and firing).  

Read into that what you will. But it should be noted that several times throughout the nearly 60 minutes we spent talking, Sund praised Woodson and his staff numerous times for the job they did this season.

Sund’s making all the right moves leading up to the July 1 free agent frenzy. He hasn’t closed the door on anything (more below) and hasn’t thrown anyone or anything under the bus heading into the draft and what looks like it might be yet another long summer for the Hawks.

Those of you interested in continuing the debate about Woodson’s future are welcome to do so, but anyone else interested in moving off that topic and onto a few others, the rest of this blog is for you:

AFTER ALL, IT IS DRAFT LOTTERY NIGHT around the rest of the NBA.

And after years of being a major player in the lottery, the Hawks are on the outside looking in for the second straight year (which is a good thing if you’ve also made the playoffs for the second straight year).

 

Blake Griffin knows that all the ping pong balls in the lottery are pointing toward him as the No. 1 pick!

Blake Griffin knows that all the ping pong balls in the lottery are pointing toward him as the No. 1 pick!

The Blake Griffin sweepstakes (win at your own peril) are almost over for those lonely teams like Sacramento, Washington and the Los Angeles Clippers – the three teams with best statistical odds of snagging the top pick in what doesn’t have the makings of anything other than a mediocre (at best) draft.

There’s no doubt Griffin is the big prize. But outside of the Oklahoma superstar power forward (and Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet, Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio and Smyrna native and Arizona star big man Jordan Hill), there’s a consensus that teams will do a whole lot of reaching for impact players in this draft.

“This is basically a two-man draft and Rubio,” a wise Eastern Conference executive told me today. “It’s Griffin and Thabeet and you have to figure out where Rubio fits in there, too.”

So where does that leave a team like the Hawks with the 19th pick (in a draft that is already light on big men and point guards)?

Basically in limbo.

Because if they hold on to their pick and wait and see what shakes out of the lottery and down into their hands, the best they can hope for is the proposition of choosing between the best player available and and someone who strictly fills a need (as opposed to an elite talent at a position that fills a need).

That’s if they hold on to the pick and don’t package it with another asset and move them for something they need more than a rookie swingman (again, you have to figure the best point guards and big men will be gone by 19) or project at another position.

“What they’ve got to do is find a player at 19 that makes the coaching staff play him every night,” that wise Eastern Conference exec told me.

I couldn’t agree more.

The last three players chosen at 19 in the draft: 

Cleveland (and Marietta’s own) J.J. Hickson in 2008, Washington and (Atlanta’s own) Javaris Crittenton in 2007 and Toronto’s Quincy Douby in 2006.

Not one of them started a single game during his rookie season.

So if we go on recent history alone, the chances of the Hawks finding anything more than a rotation player at 19 are pretty slim. And in a weak draft, even that might be a stretch.

THAT’S WHY I CAN’T IMAGINE THE HAWKS ARE BANKING ON THEIR DRAFT PICK MAKING – OR BREAKING – THEIR SUMMER, as has been the case in years past.

You can’t with that sort of empirical data as your guide.

Besides, the Hawks have far more pressing issues in free agency, where they’ll have to deal with what Sund referred to as “moving pieces.”

The Hawks have more of those free agent pieces – Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, Flip Murray, Solomon Jones and Marvin Williams (the only one of the bunch that’s restricted, as is Josh Childress, whose rights the Hawks still retain while he is living and working in Greece) – than any team likes.

 

A big summer for the Hawks could get even bigger if Josh Childress finds his way home from Greece!

A big summer for the Hawks could get even bigger if Josh Childress finds his way home from Greece! The Hawks still hold his rights while he's living and working overseas.

Tough choices will have to be made. And anyone not invested for the long run (don’t expect this process to be resolved quickly) is probably in for a tough summer.

I don’t suspect that Sund will be rushed into any deals. What with the tightening of belts all around the league, teams won’t be so quick to spend as freely as they have been in the past.

The free agent marketplace is sure to be constipated, just like all the other markets have been since the global recession began (no, the NBA is not immune).

That might actually work out well for the Hawks, if their quest is to keep the core of this season’s roster together as best they can. And from all indications, that’s exactly what their aim is this summer.

IN TODAY’S FINALE ODE TO THE NBA SUMMER, it seemed only fitting that I pass along yet another pertinent link to a home run story from my main man Steve Aschburner of si.com.

For all the bellyaching folks do about coaches and players (and officials, and beat writers and just about everything else), you at least know when you’ve got a good or a bad one.

But as the elder statesman points out, a good GM is really hard to find.

Here’s a taste:

“Hiring an NBA coach is like hiring a tax accountant: By the middle of April each year, you know exactly where you stand. Hiring an NBA general manager is more like hiring a financial advisor: He takes control of your entire portfolio, makes decisions for some distant horizon and assures you during the bumpy times that the plan is sound, that time and patience are your friends and, by the way, that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

And every once in a while, a franchise ends up flipping its keys to the basketball equivalent of Bernie Madoff.”

Make sure you read the rest!

484 comments Add your comment

niremetal

May 24th, 2009
7:06 pm

Ray,

To reply to one post from awhile ago…I don’t think it’s a matter of asset management. The only way we could have avoided being in this situation with Childress is if we’d re-signed him. Sund made the judgment that Chill wasn’t worth $7.5M/yr, which is what it would have taken to re-sign him and keep him in the states, and I don’t think he was wrong (considering that we spent $4M on Mo and Flip and came out better for it). I just don’t see how Sund could or should have handled it differently. Like all first round picks, Chill was going to be a restricted free agent unless we re-signed him. So unless you think we should have ponied up the dough to keep him here (which probably would have meant saying goodbye to Flip, Mo, and now Marvin), I don’t think it was a case of bad asset management. Just another day in the life of the crazy world of the NBA free agent market.

kirkinga

May 24th, 2009
7:14 pm

kirkinga

May 24th, 2009
7:15 pm

ok, well I guess my long winded comment isn’t going to be posted for some unknown reason.

I’d like to say:

Please allow me to join the Fire Woodson! crowd.

kirkinga

May 24th, 2009
7:17 pm

Apologies if my initial comment written 10 minutes ago decides to appear at some point.

If Coach Woodson isn’t good enough to merit an extension, then he shouldn’t be coaching this basketball team next season. Sund has observed this coaching staff throughout the season and has had enough time to evaluate them.

Sund has a number of tricky decisions to make this offseason and Woodson is nothing but a scapegoat

kirkinga

May 24th, 2009
7:18 pm

Not extending Coach Woodson also sends a muddled message to the current players as well as potential players. “Is this the guy”? “Why should I listen to him, he’s on his way out?” Free agents are going to see the money, but they are also going to see a coach not fully supported.

Leaving coaches twisting in the wind rarely works. Other than Lovie Smith of the Chicago Bears, I can’t think of more than 1-2 situations where this works out well for the team.

Is Woodson going to change now? What is it that is keeping him from being extended that isn’t going

niremetal

May 24th, 2009
7:19 pm

Hoops,

I think you need to give me some of whatever you’re smoking ;) . I kid, but in all seriousness, the trades you just proposed amount to a rebuilding of the team, which seems a bit extreme considering that we just made the 4 seed in the East. You’re saying we should let go of two of our starters, switch the position of a third, and bring in 4-5 new players.

Beyond that, a lot of the trades you propose make no sense for one team or the other. No way in hell that a team will give up a top 3 pick in exchange for Acie, the #19, and the right to pay Claxton $5.2M. Even if we could, I’m not close to being sold on Thabeet, although I’d make that trade in a jiffy if the Thunder were stupid enough to agree to it.

Why would we give up Childress to get Jarvis freaking Hayes? Wouldn’t we be better off just re-signing Chill? My guess – you’re just a Bulldogs fan :) .

I like your idea of signing Sessions, but I honestly am not convinced Woody would start him over Flip, because Flip is more the type of “1 guard” that Woody likes. If we can get Woody canned, then by all means sign Sessions. But if not, we’re better off keeping Bibby for 2-3 years at $6M per year, and trading Acie for his successor.

The Smoove-for-Bosh deal is intriguing, and one that I’ve thought of before. We’d need to throw in a third player to make the deal work in terms of salaries – Acie Law would do the trick. But I highly doubt that Raptors will agree to it unless they’re 100% sure that Bosh is headed out the door next summer.

kirkinga

May 24th, 2009
7:20 pm

Go get Avery Johnson or whoever and stop fiddling around. If you don’t want a guy after his best season, you don’t want him. Why waste the players time and risk losing games you may not have to lose and which could cost you the playoffs or playoff position?

A new coach is better position to win if he has a full camp to institute his system. Coming in after the team is in a hole, going the interim route is not the optimal way. Also, wouldn’t it be better to have that new guy’s input now with these critical decisions and the draft coming up rather than later, after the drama of watching the previous coach try to do his job “on the hot seat”?

Firing Woodson next season, one year removed from the most successful season in a decade, is not going to be a better PR move than firing him now. The same people who will bemoan his firing now are going to be the same ones that say he deserved another chance.

For the good of the team, Mike Woodson should be fired now…with the quickness!

Again, sorry for reposting in pieces like this, it wouldn’t go through otherwise.

Go Hawks!!

niremetal

May 24th, 2009
7:23 pm

I agree on a few things, though – we need to re-sign Zaza, Marvin, and Flip (and I do believe that should be the order of our priorities).

Hoops

May 24th, 2009
7:57 pm

niremetal,

You can accuse me of a lot of things, even though I don’t smoke anything. I might be crazy, a dreamer, even stupid at times, but please don’t accuse me of being a Bulldawg fan!

Sautee

May 24th, 2009
8:32 pm

Kirk,

Don’t get all squishy now. ;-)

I understand your frustration, BUT, as Ray said, Woody has only ONE winning season. I can actually see some wisdom in going either way… staying with Woody w/o an extension, or rewarding him for a good year.

I’m glad it’s not my call. But in the BIG picture, Woodson is still just a .373 coach.

And that’s over 5 years, so it’s not from a small sample. Yes, we’ve improved, but how could we NOT improve on a 13 win start? And he HAS had SIX lottery picks to work with, two of which were established veteran stars.

I’m wondering if this will affect your expectations for next year?

O'brien

May 24th, 2009
8:42 pm

niremetal, I was under the assumption that if we let Bibby go (thereby renouncing his $15 mil salary), we would be under the cap. Not to mention Zaza’s $4 mil salary.

I agree that Jack would be easier to sign, because Indy is still paying TJ Ford $8 mil and Jamal Tinsley ($6.8 mil)too.

But considering that the Bucks will owe at least $48.3 million (last year’s numbers) to 5 players alone (plus escalating salaries, and not counting Villanueva who they also want back:

Ridnour $6.5 mil, Bogut $6.3 mil
Gadzuric $6.3 mil, Jefferson $13.2 mil
Redd $16 mil

How much are the Bucks really willing to go over the cap in this economy? (Although all this talk might be moot, because Woody has said he wants Bibby to retire a Hawk).

doc

May 24th, 2009
9:25 pm

kirknga, have you come up with a new personality? is it hoops by chance?

Sautee

May 24th, 2009
9:27 pm

doc,

maybe a new roommate?

Sautee

May 24th, 2009
9:57 pm

doc,

Actually I think that Kirk’s “go hawks” post likely followed the one that got eaten by the matrix. That’s what made you wonder, and I wondered too until kirk mentioned losing a post.

If you look closely at Hoops’ posts, I think you’d see hints that it isn’t really Kirk.

niremetal

May 24th, 2009
10:19 pm

O’Brien,

The fact that Bibby’s $15M salary is coming off the books doesn’t mean that we get cap space equal to that amount, because we’re well over the cap right now. The salary cap for next year is likely to be around $58M. Right now, we have $41M in salary that is guaranteed to the seven players under contract for next year (JJ, Smoove, Speedy, Horford, Mo, Acie, and Morris). Assuming we make a qualifying offer to Marvin, that will put us at $48M. Assuming we also make a qualifying offer to Chill, that would put us around $53.5M. That means that even assuming that we DON’T re-sign Bibby, Zaza, Flip, Mario, Solo, Gardner, and Hunter, we would have only about $4.5M in cap space left. But if we re-sign any of those players or if we re-sign Marvin for more than $7M or if we re-sign Chill for more than $5.5M, that would obviously leave us with even less cap space.

In other words, assuming we make qualifying offers to Marvin and Chill, and sign any one of Flip/Bibby/Zaza, we have no cap space. (And we would be retarded to not make qualifying offers to both of them, because otherwise they both would become unrestricted free agents.). That means that for all practical purposes, we only have the mid-level exception to use in signing players.

O'brien

May 24th, 2009
10:35 pm

Oh ok. Thanks for clarifying. So the best we can do is hope nobody offers Bibby the kind of money he is looking for, in effect driving his price down.

Ariose

May 24th, 2009
11:02 pm

It’s up to tha Bibbster. He’s unrestricted so he can choose to take any offer he wants, regardless of the price. He might take less just to stay here.

Ariose

May 24th, 2009
11:20 pm

Yeah, that doesn’t sound like Kirk at all lol.

Sautee

May 24th, 2009
11:31 pm

My God! The refs are STILL trying to give the Cavs the game. Great block by Howard, totally clean, but hey, it was the Chosen One.

Total B.S.

niremetal

May 24th, 2009
11:50 pm

Sautee,

I hear ya. LeBron and D-Howard shot 43 free throws between them tonight. Tell me the refs don’t give stars their calls.

doc

May 24th, 2009
11:52 pm

agree sautee.

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
12:00 am

yup…….we need tha sheed. Who else can deal with Howard? Certainly not Camby or Kaman….just sayin’.

Clyde

May 25th, 2009
5:07 am

O'brien

May 25th, 2009
11:17 am

Ariose, Rasheed might even come cheaper than those 2. He said he wants $8 mill, while Kaman and Camby make close to $10 mil. However, will we have the salary cap space to sign somebody for that amount?

Another benefit of Rasheed is he will draw opposing centers away from the basket because of his ability to make 3’s. That opens up the driving lane…

terrell barron

May 25th, 2009
11:53 am

Phil Jackson was asked if he was starting a team who would he take, Lebron or D. Howard? Phil said Howard, and the ESPN crew said no way! Lebron is a beast, dont get me wrong, but how often do you run across a big man with the athleticism of Howard? Thats a tough call, but I might have to go with Phil on this one. And did I mention, that he’s 7′0 and can touch the top of the backboard? He’s making Verajo and Ilgauskas look silly right now. And btw, Stan Van Gundy gets on my nerves. Just stop talking alreasdy. lol!!

Nate ArchiBALL

May 25th, 2009
1:13 pm

Let’s go after Marcin Gortat of the Magic- 6′11 – 240 pounds – 25 years old and only makes 700K. You could probably get him for less than what ZaZa makes today (4 million)
better athlete than ZaZa,
blocks shots
Can dunk in traffic

ILL-logical

May 25th, 2009
1:58 pm

After last night’s game, I second Nate’s motion on Gortat,he could be the answer to a lot of questions for the Hawks. Did you see him block 2 of the chosen one’s shots?

However, Orlando would probably go to some lengths to keep him but if the money is right.. .

glw

May 25th, 2009
2:19 pm

Gortat was definitely a beast last night and he is a better athlete than Zaza. I would say its gonna take at least mid level money to get him though (5.5-6 million) am sure there will be other suitors willin to overpay for him.

I am still on board for the Rasheed idea, if he comes cheap (7-8) million range and his skill set (ability to hit outside jumpers) would go perfect with JSmoove and Horford.

niremetal,

while it is true, that cap space is limited, I think they would renounce or trade JChill rights to sign the right free agent. Also Acie and/or Speedy or movable with the right deal. So really the Hawks are capable of freeing enough money to get almost any free agent even Kobe Bryant under the right circumstances.

Blast

May 25th, 2009
2:40 pm

So much fun to read about all the trades and picks and speculations on the blog, even though none of us has a narry say in who the Hawks eventually sign. Good job folks! Keep it coming.

Really like what Orlando is doing to Cleveland right now. Orlando could easily be up 3-0 while Denver should have a 3-0 lead over the Lakers too. Any other team in the finals but LA, please.

niremetal

May 25th, 2009
2:47 pm

Glw,

For the billionth time, we have no rights in Chill to trade. All we can do is re-sign him, sign-and-trade him (in which case, we’d have to take back salary approximately equal to what he gets paid), or renounce his rights as an unrestricted free agent. And if you think we should just renounce Chill’s rights and let him walk for absolutely nothing, that’s just insane.

niremetal

May 25th, 2009
2:57 pm

I’ll just make it real simple. We ARE GOING to make qualifying offers to Marvin and Chill. So just get it out of your head that we will renounce either. Once we do that, any sign-and-trade would necessarily involve taking back as much salary as we trade away. The mid-level exception is automatically added to our cap number unless we renounce our right to use it (which would be stupid because the mid-level is ~$5.8M, so why would we give up a $5.8M exception to get $4.5M in cap room?). That means that we will be OVER THE CAP for the purposes of signing free agents. PERIOD.

That means that the only money we can use to sign other teams’ free agents is our ~$5.8M mid-level exception. So signing Rasheed is out of the question. Signing Ramon Sessions is probably out of the question too since Milwaukee almost will certainly match up to the full mid-level to keep him.

We have $5.8M total to spend on free agents this summer. That’s it. Get used to it.

kirkinga

May 25th, 2009
3:11 pm

Sautee, it is Sund who epitomizes “squish” with this indecision. For the good of the team he should be extended or fired. Even if the extension is for a short period, say 1 or 2 years.

When the MG, and by default, the ownership, shows that they do not fully support the coach, that is bad for the team. There is nothing good about leaving a coach twisting in the wind at this point.

I agree with most of what has been said, but I have not seen a very good answer of what we can expect out of Coach Woodson that we haven’t already gotten? Yes, he’s had one winning season but that conveniently overlooks when he entered the picture. He also showed improvement each season, and has had two playoff appearances with the last playoff appearance an improvement over the first.

I’m not arguing for the guy, I’m just saying there is enough evidence now to know his strengths and weaknesses. If Sund doesn’t know, well someone needs to direct him to this blog so he can find out.

If you are the GM and you believe your team underachieved this season, you fire the guy because he’s been here long enough to have done better. If the team met expectations, then you don’t withdraw support from your coach as Sund has done.

The Hawks may have a profoundly different look next season and in that case. It is the coach’s job to put players in the best position to win, and the GM’s job to put the coaches in the best position to win. This indecision accomplishes neither.

Go get your Avery Johnson, or Larry Drew(really?), or whoever and give him a chance to come in and hit the ground running. Let Woodson leave with his dignity, though he may have none judging from his acceptance of this situation. I think it possible that Sund thought Woodson would resign with a meager 2-year extension last season, and certainly would leave with no offer of extension despite a 10-game improvement after this season.

Woodson is a dead man walking. You know, I know it, this blog and Hawks fans know it, and so do, unfortunately the players who now have now have a Head Coach with no authority. That is setting the team up for drama and failure. Does Josh Smith hold the key to Woodson’s future?

If there are personnel changes this offseason and the Hawks underperform, who takes the hit? The guy who assembled the team, or the coach? By retaining Woodson, Sund temporarily delays the start of his clock. Last offseason, it was about cleaning up after Knight. Now with this indecision , he has a built in excuse should something go wrong this season.

Once he hires a new coach his clock starts in earnest.

Votes of No Confidence don’t work in politics, and rarely work in sports. Is this really where we want our team to be right now? It’s all about winning and this is essentially tying one hand behind the coach’s back. As Terrance Moore would say, “Not good”.

Go Hawks!!

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:26 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:27 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:29 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:30 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:32 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:34 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:35 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:36 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:39 pm

Melvin

May 25th, 2009
3:41 pm

This guy (Curtis Jerrells) looks like Acie Law 2.0. I think he would be a nice pick in the 2nd round…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9anGAmF9sg

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
3:52 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
4:00 pm

Melvin, That Jerrels guy is ood. He seems to be a better shooter than Law, but Acie is defenetly faster and a better ball handler. Besides how many lefties’ careers are we willing to ruin? lol! We can’t got throught them all hehehehe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bzy_ja_9yLM

I’m not willing to give up on Acie just yet. When he is given 20+ minuter (only about five times this season) he has produced solid numbers across the board. His instincs and production will ony increase with more PT.

doc

May 25th, 2009
4:10 pm

i am glad to know there was one individual that continued to read terrance moore as he was “not good”.

last year it was all about give them time now i guess kirknga you have already chosen to disclaim all that goes forward this summer before it even starts? seems to have set the expectation bar low. we all know woody seems to coach better with his back against the wall, so it should be in the teams best interest that woody continue to hang on a limb. woody has already performed well as a lame duck coach to get his team into the playoffs and win three games against the soon to be world champs. why should you expect anything less from him or his team next year. it is also a year that jj goes to get his new contract so he will be even more the warrior next year as he was this year. both of them have a lot to prove this year is my expectation and they will deliver along with our mvp josh.

nire you are killing me with your dire forecasts of financial strength. is everyone else as strapped as we seem to be?

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
4:13 pm

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
4:16 pm

If we don’t resign Chills or if we trade him……whatever, we should sign Austin Daye Regardless. His shot is Peja-smooth and the guy is 6′11. I thinkhe will be there when we draft.

I expect a lot more ppl to contribute next season or Woody is toast.

Melvin

May 25th, 2009
4:20 pm

Ariose,

Watch how many teams throw in the towel after the all-star break next season to get this kid (John Wall) who will be the type of player you build a franchise around….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4CbQGBbUOw&feature=related

niremetal

May 25th, 2009
4:26 pm

Doc,

It’s not a matter of financial strength. It’s a matter of cap space. And yes, the vast majority of other teams have little-to-no cap flexibility this summer, same as us. In fact, we are going into next year with one of the lowest guaranteed payrolls, since we only have 7 guys under contract (JJ, Smoove, Speedy, Horford, Mo, Acie, and Morris). Unfortunately, we have $41M tied up in just those 7 guys ($26 in Smoove and JJ alone) and another $12.5 earmarked for the qualifying offers we’ll need to make to keep Marvin and Chill from becoming unrestricted free agents.

And ironically, as I said, that still gives us more cap flexibility than most, since most teams have $60M or more in guaranteed salaries for next year. The only teams that are going into the offseason with enough cap space to make signings for more than the mid-level exception are Detroit, Memphis, Minnesota (and they only have ~$8M to play with), New Jersey (same), Oklahoma City, and Toronto. So we’re in the same boat as the 23 other teams, who will have to figure out a way to make it work through the draft, the mid-level exception, minimum salary contracts, and cap-neutral trades.

Ariose

May 25th, 2009
4:26 pm

Melvin, I’ve alredy seen tons of his footage lol. He’s sick. Probabaly #1 overral next year. I mean, ppl were trying to find a loophole in the system to make him elegable for the darft this year lol. He didn’t even want to come out. That’s when you know you’ve arrived.