New research paper: Demand for college-educated workers will rise by 16 percent by 2018.
Here is yet another paper on the impending shortage of college-educated workers, released on Wednesday by the Center for Law and Social Policy and the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.
The paper looks at each state’s jobs in 2008 and projects what the job needs will be in 2018.
In 2018, Georgia will have 306,000 more jobs requiring postsecondary education than it does now, from 2,523,000 jobs to 2,830,000 jobs.
The paper also lists unemployment rates by level of education in each state. In Georgia, the unemployment rate for someone without a high school degree is 16.9.
With a high school degree, the unemployment rate is 11.7.
The unemployment rate for Georgia workers with college degrees is 5.8. For those with graduate or professional degrees, the unemployment rate is 3.6.
From the release:
The paper, Not Just Kid Stuff Anymore: The Economic Imperative for More Adults to Complete College, finds that over the next decade, there will be no national growth in the number of high school graduates, and some states will see the number of high school graduates decline by as much as 18 to 20 percent. The report includes state-by-state projections of the number of high school graduates through 2020. It finds that the flow of young workers into the workforce is drying up, especially in states in the Midwest and New England such as Ohio, Michigan, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York.
By 2018 the demand for college-educated workers will rise 16 percent, while demand for other workers will stay flat. At the same time, nearly two-thirds of jobs in 2018 will require some postsecondary education or training. Leading the nation in job openings requiring postsecondary education are Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington state, and the District of Columbia.
“The country’s economic competitiveness rests on more people accessing postsecondary education and credentials,” said Patrick Kelly, a senior associate at NCHEMS and coauthor of the report. “And with the aging of our population and decline in number of recent high school graduates entering college and the workforce, we need to make sure even more adults and nontraditional students have the skills they need to fill tomorrow’s jobs.”
“Our public policies have an important role to play by making postsecondary education more accessible for adult and nontraditional students, including by protecting funding for federal aid, especially Pell Grants, and improving policies to expand access and completion for an undergraduate population that looks much different today than 20 years ago,” said Vickie Choitz, a senior policy analyst at CLASP.
While research projects adult enrollment in college will grow twice as fast as enrollments by traditional age students, it’s important to note nontraditional students already are a significant percent of the college population: 36 percent of undergraduates are age 25 or older, 47 percent are considered “independent” from their parents , 23 percent of undergraduates are parents, and 40 percent are low-income. The changing student population has different needs from traditional students.
“It is critical that federal student aid be responsive to the needs of adults who often must juggle work, family and school responsibilities and who are on their own financially,” the report states.
–From Maureen Downey, for the AJC Get Schooled blog
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59 comments Add your comment
Jerry Eads
June 23rd, 2011
4:23 pm
ON THE OTHER HAND, always also a bunch of astute insite on topic every day. The experience vs. degree issue is an interesting one – and some interesting bigotries in the workplace. Know a fellow who never went past high school; his three siblings all have Ph.D.s (two are “hard”, one is “soft”, all from Tier 1 schools. My take is he’s the smartest of the bunch, but even though he’s apparently considered the best in the city at his IT specialty, he’s been passed over for promotion many times for inexperienced degreed folk. (Don’t feel too sorry for him – he makes 3x what I do.)
Ye who spoke of apples to apples, indeed. I’m glad the clinical psych type is making it, and yes indeed they can do quite well. And there are many folks with ‘hard’ degrees who don’t find jobs. On balance, the data do suggest that the hard skill (e.g., engineering) make more bux than many others. We also presume there are some cognitive capacity differences in some cases (hafta be smarter to get thru engineering than basketweaving), but that will LARGELY depend on the school.
Jerry Eads
June 23rd, 2011
4:24 pm
Ugh. how do I make such typos.
Atlas$hrugged
June 24th, 2011
9:06 am
Great blog! One mistake this study seems to make is using the terms “post-secondary” and “college” as if they are they same thing. College is postsecondary. But not all postsecondary is college. There are great apprenticeship programs, for example, that prepare people for $70K+ jobs; jobs that are in high demand right now – even in this economy. Welders are one good example. We have companies across Georgia who are seeking good skilled welders right now and they can’t find them! Meanwhile, we have 500,000 unemployed Georgians! This study seems to muddy the water. We need more studies that seek to understand and solve this obvious skills gap problem.
Progressive Humanist
June 24th, 2011
10:59 am
Reading back over some of the foolishness that ensued after I went to work yesterday:
Yo tar and feathers,
My guess is that you’re a sophomore at Tech. Sounds about right. If you think psychology is a qualitative field you’ve got some learnin to do. All of my research is quantitative, as is almost all psychological research. You also may want to check with one of the many many psychologists who teach statistics at universities. And if you think I’ve got a BA in psychology you’ve also got some weaknesses in reading comprehension and the ability to draw inferences as well. Now go back to your job flipping burgers at the Varsity.
Atlmom,
We’ve got to work on your vocabulary. You seem to have a misunderstanding of the term “science”. (and of college curricula)
John K,
I actually agree with you that the country needs to shift its focus back towards production, away from importing everything, and become energy independent. But that’s not my point. You seem to be lumping all jobs into two categories- either service or production. That’s just too simplistic. Police, firefighters, medical doctors, teachers, sanitation workers are all service workers. Are they not important or necessary in our society? Do some of them not need extensive training? Is all private industry sacrosanct? What about the professors who teach the engineering or petroleum production majors? They’re technically service workers. What about the professors who train teachers (which is one of the things I do)? Not needed? I still find your argument less than convincing. You were wrong on the earnings you suggested, and your overgeneralizations by lumping all jobs into just two categories fueled the inaccuracy of your argument.
A conservative voice,
If you believe that the Tea Party is diverse then I think you are the one who needs some education in diversity. Diplomacy? I feel no reason to show diplomacy to traitors. (But my apologies to John K if he is not an actual Tea Party member. I shouldn’t have insulted him in that way.)
Have a good day!
John Konop
June 24th, 2011
11:19 am
Progressive Humanist
……….You seem to be lumping all jobs into two categories- either service or production. That’s just too simplistic. Police, firefighters, medical doctors, teachers, sanitation workers are all service workers. Are they not important or necessary in our society? Do some of them not need extensive training? Is all private industry sacrosanct?…….
Once again you are missing the point. The issue is not about what is “not important or necessary” it is about economic viability of our economy. The jobs you listed can only be afforded on a macro if the production part of the economy grows. Obviously we need service sector jobs but you cannot pay for them on a macro if we consume more than we produce. And this façade only was working because irrational amounts debt was circulated to allow people to consume products they could not afford.
Finally the education system needs to foster the production side or real wages on a macro will keep declining especially in your area on a macro. That is why this study is garbage as many pointed out. A rational person without a lobbyist driven agenda would of look at jobs on a granular basis not lump it together.
Progressive Humanist
June 24th, 2011
11:39 am
I think we have found something we can agree upon (not the value or rigor of psychology vs English, etc.). At the high school where I taught the agriculture ed classes were some of the most beneficial to students, IMO. The kids raised award winning livestock and then sent them to slaughter and sold the meat to run the program. They learned how to grow crops as well. When they left high school they had real skills that could immediately benefit society and they could earn a living on that education alone even if they didn’t pursue agriculture in college.
Contrast this to the “college prep” level kids (85% of the school) who followed a traditional academic track. They didn’t give a sh#$ about learning and most of them left school (either dropped out or graduated) with 8th grade level skills. Now those are going to be your lifelong, low wage service workers (but they thought they’d be making 80k by the time they were 20). Probably fewer than 20% of the school went on to college and most who did went to places like Ga Perimeter or West Ga. And this high school was right on the state average for graduation rate and test scores.
I’m all for shifting 50% of these kids to vocational training. Most are not cut out, either in cognitive terms or motivational terms, for college. Their job prospects would be much better if they had skills and they’d be able to contribute more to society. That would leave fewer kids to go on to the positions that needed advanced academic training, which would be fine because we wouldn’t be wasting millions on college dropouts.
However, with 10+% unemployment in this state and no one willing to pick the crops rotting on the vine, literally, I don’t know if Americans still have the work ethic to be the producers we once were.
William Melvin
June 24th, 2011
11:54 am
Great post Progressive…spot on
Ole Guy
June 28th, 2011
12:34 am
Bare in mind, boys and girls…and you adults who complain of not being able to find jobs…yes, the economy is tough/yes, finding meaningful work which yields, as Lee Iacocca once described as “a dignified wage”, is not as “easy” as it once may have been, BUT, the jobs are there. Unfortunately, the jobs aren’t going to adapt to the available labor pool, the labor pool had better adapt to the job requirements. This means 1) EDUCATION, 2) EDUCATION, and 3) EDUCATION, both formal and informal. The jobs aren’t going to pop out and beg for the “sick, lame and lazy”.
Already, there are definite signs of professions, once revered, which now have difficulty keeping up with the “global jonses”. Educators of many foreign lands are able to impart, upon the youth of those countries, the disciplines which this once-great Country knew and accepted as minimum requirements for admission to the world of global eminence.
We can discuss these academic issues: Demand for the college educated, pay for performance, the misguided notion of adapting the educational systems to the students, rather than the opposite. You folks would be well-served, as would your kids, to GET YOUR PRIORITIES STRAIGHT.
Brittany
June 28th, 2011
4:56 pm
The House-passed budget would cut $5.6 billion from Pell Grants, which provide a vital foundation for college financial aid in America. The House Committee on Education and the Workforce estimates that at least 180,000 students would lose their Pell Grants entirely. Protect the Pell Grants program and Please Share! https://www.voices.org/action/protect-pell-grants.html