An estimated 70% of our economy is dependent upon consumer spending and we are still bleeding jobs. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that another 263,000 people lost their jobs in September. Obviously, the 7.2 million people who lost their jobs since January of 2008 are not going out and spending money, so where is this miraculous recovery coming from?

GM announced that the deal to sell Saturn fell through, so it will probably shut down. Either that, or they will transition some of their production from older facilities to the Tenn plant, which was built in the late 80’s, early 90’s.

The auto sales saw a brief blip due to the Cash for Clunkers program, but as Jim D noted, they merely borrowed from future sales. Look for new car sales to bottom out 4th qtr 2009 – 1st qtr 2010.

Lastly, our little socialist in the White House is still intent upon giving amnesty to the 30 million illegals and take over health care – you know, the one industry that was “recession proof.”

Horsefeathers indeed.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth

The two fed programs mentioned here were designed as temporary measures to stop the free fall and won’t be reflected in future GDP numbers. Even IF Q3 goes positive, which would make Humphries technically correct, you still have to back out the effect of temporary programs to understand what you’re really seeing.

The BLS just revised Q2 productivity to 6.6 per cent, the largest increase in six years. Most people (Jim being a notable exception) don’t understand what this means or the implications of this type of increase. When non farm payroll drops a LOT more than GDP (which is how the BLS calculates this number), businesses are more likely to survive a downturn, but it paints a very bleak picture for future employment, which is exactly what has to increase to sustain a recovery.

I’ll skip the other 98 things Humphries overlooked and agree with Jim – this guy is just blowing smoke.

It is a nice way of saying BULL S#@%

I hated to go here since it takes us way off topic but since you asked.

“He said federal efforts are working, citing the boost to automobile-related industries from the cash for clunker program and the improving picture for single family home sales from the first-time buyer tax credit.”

It ain’t over. Cash for Clunkers will soon bite us in the arse when the repos start going back and then drag on for years of slow auto sales since so many people will be driving new cars. The normal cycle of auto purchases has been disrupted and will play out over the next several years. the same will happen with the presidents efforts to stimulate the real estate business.

Is it over? I think we’ve just begun to see the start of something much worse that will be drawn out for decades to come.