The possibilities of Coastal tie at 4-4
I got a tweet last night asking if Georgia Tech fans have a rooting interest in Thursday night’s Virginia-North Carolina game. My first response was, no, because, as I’d posted earlier, Tech can only win by beating Duke and either a) Duke loses to Miami or b) Miami self-imposes a postseason ban.
But then – because I am something of a dope – I wondered what would happen if Duke beat Tech, Miami self-imposed a postseason ban and then beat Duke. Some people wonder how they could safely land a probe on Mars. Others, like my friend Mike, wonder how they can bring clean drinking water to people in underdeveloped countries. I wonder about the outcomes of unlikely ties in the ACC Coastal Division. We all have our callings. Only some of them, though, cause their parents to be vague and avoid eye contact when explaining their children’s line of work.
So, anyway, should this happen, Miami would be 5-3 but ineligible and perhaps clawing its eyes out, Duke and Tech would be 4-4 and the three other Coastal Division teams could also finish 4-4. In my enduring efforts to dig into ACC Coastal Division tiebreaking minutiae, I can tell you that Tech can’t win if this happens. So, first, the Jackets absolutely need to beat Duke and have Duke beat Miami or Miami self-impose in order to get to Charlotte. As such, second, Tech fans don’t have a rooting interest in the Virginia-UNC game, unless they want to root against a particular outcome. Third, it looks like Virginia has no shot at Charlotte, but Duke and Virginia Tech do.
If you care to know why…
I think there are five possibilities.
First scenario
North Carolina finishes 4-4 by beating Virginia Thursday night and losing to Maryland Nov. 24 to create a three-way tie. Duke would win this tiebreaker as it would be 2-0 in head-to-head. North Carolina could also finish 4-4 by losing to Virginia and beating Maryland. Duke still wins.
Second scenario
Virginia finishes 4-4 by beating North Carolina and Virginia Tech Nov. 24 for a three-way tie. Duke would win again because it would be 2-0 in head-to-head.
Third scenario
Virginia Tech finishes 4-4 by beating Boston College and Virginia. Virginia Tech would win since it beat both Duke and Georgia Tech.
Fourth scenario
Virginia Tech and UNC both finish 4-4. In this four-way tie, Virginia Tech would also win. In head-to-head competition, Virginia Tech and Duke would be 2-1 while UNC and Tech would be 1-2, eliminating them. Virginia Tech wins with its win over Duke. (It wouldn’t matter which route UNC took to get to 4-4 since division record wouldn’t be a factor.)
Fifth scenario
UNC and Virginia finish 4-4 for a four-way tie. Duke wins because it would be 3-0 head-to-head.
Thanks for reading. Next in the series will examine the ramifications of a Tech win, a zombie apocalypse and shares in Microsoft reaching a 52-week high on the Coastal race.
In case you missed it…
Tech avoids letdown vs. Presbyterian
Notes: NCAA experts say Miami should self-impose
Johnson on Lee, offense, redshirt freshmen
Notes: Washington looking like starter
No chance, after all, for Tech in three-way Coastal tie
Notes: Johnson to again wait on naming starting QB
Bradley: Tech as Coastal champion? Yep, it could happen
Tech season takes another turn
Tech-Georgia gets noon kickoff
Golden, Nealy ACC players of the week
Ken Sugiura, Georgia Tech blog
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
71 comments Add your comment
SansWorld
November 15th, 2012
11:55 am
my head hurts
SansWorld
November 15th, 2012
11:56 am
I would say first, but this is a clear case of middle
SansWorld
November 15th, 2012
11:58 am
or a clear case of mediocrity
5150 UOAD
November 15th, 2012
12:06 pm
It does make the head hurt…….JUST Win and let it play out. 44 seconds against VPI put us in this bad situation.
Wrecking Ball
November 15th, 2012
12:09 pm
Ken, you, sir, are insane. And I mean that in a good way. Love it.
However, I do hope the team makes this point moot by beating Duke. Go jackets.
White&Gold
November 15th, 2012
12:11 pm
Need to play with the mentality that all that’s important is securing bowl eligibility. If it pans out and we win the Coastal, great! If not, I personally won’t lose any sleep.
TechApp fan
November 15th, 2012
12:17 pm
surely would hate it going into Athens needing a W to become a bowl player (or as some would say bowl smoked lol)
GT Dude
November 15th, 2012
12:28 pm
Ken,
you have too much time on your hands to go through all of this or you need to see a therapist
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 15th, 2012
12:31 pm
Good things happen when you win. ” COME IN HOT, JACKETS “
GIVE ME A BREAK
November 15th, 2012
12:33 pm
Ken, what do you see when you close your eyes?
TechBoy
November 15th, 2012
12:38 pm
I suspect Ken sees the Matrix in its true form… green numbers on a screen. Though I tease, I read through all five scenarios. My conclusion? We should just thump the Blue Devils this weekend. GO TECH!
jacket backer
November 15th, 2012
12:50 pm
just beat Duke please!
BB's
November 15th, 2012
12:57 pm
Please, just let Clemson and FSU play again. Do you realize that we could be 6-7 and going to a bowl so that we might finish 6-8? Just beat Duke, but then change the rules this season so the only two decent teams can play each other. I know they won’t, but that would be the best thing.
Jacket Man
November 15th, 2012
1:01 pm
One game at a time. Tech still has a chance to fulfill one of its goals from preseason, and that’s to win the Coastal Division. There is ZERO chance of that happening without a win against Duke so that is priority ONE.
They can’t worry about what any other team does at this point; they have no control over them; they have to take care of their own business and let the rest of it work itself out from there. They HAVE to do their part, though or the rest of it’s totally moot.
btgt69
November 15th, 2012
1:09 pm
Ken thanks for the article. My head really hurts; is it all these scenarios or too much tequila last night? I did have my clothes stay on,, darn it !
wreckbuzz
November 15th, 2012
1:15 pm
Every time a tiebreaker scenario is explained, an angel gets it’s wings chopped off with a dull axe.
collegeballfan
November 15th, 2012
1:18 pm
I always avoid scenarios that have to many scenarios.
fuzzybee78
November 15th, 2012
1:24 pm
@Ken
You are just showing off your statistics skills in front of all these engineers!
GTGirl
November 15th, 2012
1:25 pm
Ken you are funny! Thanks (I think) for all the options of how this could all play out. Of course we just want Tech to win and then it all works out for us! Go Jackets! I like your writing style, it is humorous and fun to read! Keep up the goodwork and don’t dream about all the different scenarios.
Hayseed Dixie
November 15th, 2012
1:30 pm
Hmmm…. a ban or just a bad postback?
Hayseed Dixie
November 15th, 2012
1:33 pm
Filters, probably.
Not sure if I’m digging the 90s-era self loathing, Ken.
“because I am something of a…..”.
Nirvana was merely an above average band, and plaid with combat boots looked bad on just about everyone. Those songs about being mad at your parents, eeek. No good. Ruins parties.
Not sure if UGA and FSU back to back is what Tech’s defense needs as a confidence building exercise.
Regardless, I’ll be watching every minute of both.
Ga Tech Old Timer
November 15th, 2012
1:59 pm
Ken – Can’t you think of any other topic to spend your time on? This one has been written about until it’s no longer interesting to think about the various possibilities Tech may have to reach the “Promised Land” (Charlotte). With all that’s going on with the team in terms of better offensive line play and what they think has made a difference – what’s happening to shore up the defense since AG left and how that’s working out for the players confidence – getting focused on the Duke game and then UGA – what bowls might be interested in Tech as a currently 5 – 3 team if they can get the #6 win – what the seniors think about their last season and the few remaining games – who the players look to amongst their own for leadership and what their definition of a leader should be in terms of players and coaches – what the future holds for any players not looking to try out for the NFL -personal hardships for players who have driven through the rough times to come out better for having played for Tech. These are just some of the topics that my limited imagination can conjure up and I’m sure that you could probably think of many more as well. The point is – PLEASE STOP BRINGING UP THE POSSIBLITIES OF TECH GETTING TO THE PLAY ODD GAME IN CHARLOTTE!!! I think you’ve done a great job in figuring out how it can happen but now it’s being driven into the ground. I may be the only one to feel this way – but that’s why this is a blog I guess – to express opinions. Mine happens to be that once the first article was posted on the campionship game possibilities – it was time to move on to other things of interest like I mentioned above. It only becomes of interest if it really happens – and that puts us back into the real world – focusing on and playing the games and letting everything else fall where it will.
DS CE'91
November 15th, 2012
2:25 pm
We win out the next two games, and I will give this year a thumbs-up. The whole ACCCG thing just doesn’t excite me the way I guess it should.
BTW, I am not prognosticating that we will beat Duke and UGA. I am HOPING it happens, though. Just don’t think we have the horses on D to compete in Athens this year.
Coach Z
November 15th, 2012
2:26 pm
Hayseed Dixie. You don’t understand Nirvana. Kurt Cobain wore VANS or some other low top kick. Also, give me a lyric where he wrote about hating his parents. Stick with the Dixie Chicks and GT football and you’ll be alright.
Coach Z
November 15th, 2012
2:27 pm
On that note, just beat Duke (echo).
GTVegas
November 15th, 2012
2:28 pm
Just beat Duke.
There is an ancient provern that goes something along the lines of “Don’t worry about those things which you have no control over and focus on what you do”.
FOCUS and EXECUTION. Beat Duke and think of nothing else until then.
RambleOn84
November 15th, 2012
2:35 pm
Hilarious, Ken…and informative. If your parents aren’t proud, I’d be glad to adopt you!
Also, to the dummy a few posts above me, Nirvana rules and so did the rest of the 90s alternative/grunge scene.
www
November 15th, 2012
2:51 pm
phil steele likes him some vad lee.
http://blog.philsteele.com/2012/11/15/surprise-college-fantasy-pows-week-12/
“Vad Lee, Georgia Tech QB vs. Duke: Lee entered the game last week against North Carolina after the third series and never left. He piled up 281 yards of total offense and three scores against the Heels. He is a bit risky as he may still share some time with Tevin Washington, but his ceiling is high against a Duke run defense that may have no answer for the Georgia Tech rushing attack. Continue to monitor the QB situation at Georgia Tech this week and don’t be afraid to plug in Lee if he is named the starter.”
fuzzybee78
November 15th, 2012
2:54 pm
If we put 50+ points on Duke and Vad has another monster game, especially throwing the ball, and if the Dawgs give up real points to Ga Southern —
I just enjoy the thought that privately Dawg fans will be unable to sleep thinking the unthinkable!
Coach Z
November 15th, 2012
2:55 pm
Never thought I’d meet Nirvana fans on a GT blog. Figured you engineered kept Mozart, Huey Lewis, and Devo close to the CD player. Anyways, nice to meet ya.
Ga Tech Old Timer
November 15th, 2012
3:04 pm
Talk about hilarious – in my previous post I misspelled the word OFF as ODD in the sentance about the championship game. Which actually may have been more to the point after reading all of Ken’s articles and coming to the conclusion that the only “worthy” participant in that game – no matter which team makes it from the Coastal division – will be Florida State based on this years record and performance week after week. We’ve had a weak division this year and all these articles on the possibilities of which team in the Coastal can make it to the game and why – just serve to prove that fact.
Stylee
November 15th, 2012
3:44 pm
This is fun to kick around, I guess.
But let’s kick Duke around first. And then shock the mutts.
I write about offense a lot, but….
Defense:
Linebackers: Let’s start off by staying in our run fits. We’re jumping out of our lanes and making the defensive line look a lot worse. Those dudes are already 1 or 2 gapping – when you get out of your area, you’re making them essentially responsible for 2 or 3 gaps.
And then let’s stop overrunning plays.
Defensive backfield: stop playing scared. And stop ‘bump tackling’ with one shoulder. Wrap up!
Defensive line: Beat someone one on one. Please.
Cross and Gotsis were able to disrupt some screens… keep that up.
BostonJacket
November 15th, 2012
4:01 pm
holy cow. There’s FANTASY COLLEGE FOOTBALL? why?
Math is Hard!
November 15th, 2012
4:13 pm
Lots of head-scratching in these blog comments. That makes it clear who was on the M-Train at Tech. Sad, really.
DawginNY
November 15th, 2012
4:23 pm
I am actually rooting for Tech to win the ACC. Beat Duke, lose to my Dawgs, and hope either Duke beats Miami or Miami self-bans. Then beat FSU and go to the Orange Bowl as ACC champs at 7-6. The other part of my dream is somehow the Dawgs also play later that week in Miami. I have tickets to both games and it would be a fun trip.
Left Coast Dawg
November 15th, 2012
4:55 pm
So basically, the only way Tech gets in is if they receive a gift?
Left Coast Dawg
November 15th, 2012
4:56 pm
My my how the Jackets have regressed under CPJ when Duke controls the reigns over Tech!
Coach Z
November 15th, 2012
5:21 pm
at left coast dawg, maybe the saying we’d rather be lucky than good applies to Tech this year.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, Tech must first defeat Dook...
November 15th, 2012
5:48 pm
…but the Tech v UGA game is setting up exactly like 2009 when Tech had a really good team and UGA had its worst team in years, yet UGA won – this year it is Tech’s turn to be the “bad” team in the game with no chance, and from where I sit (25 yard line at BDS, and first row end zone at UGA) I see Tech with the upper hand this year…
White&Gold
November 15th, 2012
6:40 pm
Whether, it’s against us, Bama, or who ever they play during their bowl game, I cannot wait to see UGA lose, and their fans get knocked down a few notches. Most obnoxious fans I’ve ever seen.
Coastal
November 15th, 2012
7:11 pm
GT vs FSU in ACC Championship.
1 4 GT
November 15th, 2012
7:18 pm
I liked the Dixie Chicks!
1 4 GT
November 15th, 2012
7:21 pm
I liked alternative rock/grunge too….listened to WRFG & WGST all the time
CT_Jacket
November 15th, 2012
8:24 pm
Ken, tell your parents that you get paid to go to football and basketball games and talk with future pro players. I think a lot of us would love that job…except for the crummy pay.
GT GRAD
November 15th, 2012
8:51 pm
What happens if GT, Miami & NC end up 5-3 in the ACC? This is obviously the most likely scenario…….more specifically what happens if:
1. Miami decides to self impose the post season ban?
2. Miami decides to play in a bowl?
Can anyone provide a definite answer to these two scenarios?
5150 UOAD
November 15th, 2012
9:11 pm
GT Grad…..Tech & UNC Tie TECH has the head to head…..Miami wins all the head to heads if they decide to go to the ACC CG & Bowl Game. I think that is how it will work.
SansWorld
November 15th, 2012
9:15 pm
What happens if GT, Miami & NC end up 5-3 in the ACC?
1. Miami decides to self impose the post season ban? 2. Miami decides to play in a bowl?
Ken has covered already. UNC is already in a post season ban. #1 above means GT goes to Charlotte. #2 Miami goes to Charlotte
Hayseed Dixie
November 15th, 2012
9:42 pm
@Coach Z
I was using Nirvana, Dr. Martens, et al as an example of a cultural vanguard in the greater context of my intended-as-comedy assertion that Ken’s self-loathing was somehow a 90’s thing.
(FWIW, I understand Nirvana just fine, I’ve read Charles R. Cross’ book, widely considered to be authoritative, and seen ‘Been A Son’ on multiple occasions. Saw em’ live, twice. If you can’t see that Kurt’s parents divorce, and his estrangement from his father is the axis on which his life swung, then it’s you who doesn’t understand Nirvana. It’s in the subtext of everything Kurt did, and makes that music drag to play at parties- I prefer Motown, or Stax/Volt)
And Dixie Chicks? They’re ok, I suppose. I’m a Merle Haggard/Hank Sr. guy myself. With a glass of George Dickel, straight.
Saturday can’t get here soon enough.
I love Jan Kemp
November 15th, 2012
9:57 pm
Never thought I’d be looking forward to the next home game after the BYU debacle but I am. Good job over the 2 game road swing, now come back to BDS and take care of business! Go Jackets!
GTGirl
November 15th, 2012
10:26 pm
So. Miss just beat the inbreds from athens in roundball in OT! Can’t wait to play the puppies in fooball AND basketball! Go Jackets! Beat Duke first though.
GTGirl
November 15th, 2012
10:26 pm
So. Miss just beat the inbreds from athens in roundball in OT! Can’t wait to play the puppies in fooball AND basketball! Go Jackets! Beat Duke first though.
5150 UOAD
November 15th, 2012
10:52 pm
UNC just put it on UVa……VPI better beat UVa or they don’t go bowling. The ACC beat each other up pretty good and others are on probation…..
hold on a second
November 16th, 2012
1:07 am
If GT goes to the ACC Championship game at 6-6 and loses, therefore becoming 6-7, we will not be eligible for a bowl game under NCAA rules.
5150 UOAD
November 16th, 2012
1:11 am
hold on a second…………….Show me those rules. You are saying a 6-6 team that can play for their conference championship should turn down that chance to go to a bowl game instead? How STUPID is that?
5150 UOAD
November 16th, 2012
1:17 am
Bowl-eligibility contingency plan
On August 2, 2012 The NCAA Division I Board of Directors approved a process that would allow 5-7 teams to become bowl eligible, in case there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams to fill every game. If a bowl has one or more conferences/teams unable to meet their contractual commitments and there are no available bowl-eligible teams, the open spots can be filled – by the bowl sponsoring agencies – as follows:[1]
Teams finishing 6-6 with one win against an FCS team, regardless of whether that FCS school meets NCAA scholarship requirements. Until now, an FCS win only counted if that opponent met the scholarship requirements—specifically, that school had to award at least 90% of the FCS maximum of 63 scholarship equivalents over a two-year period. In the 2012 season, programs in four FCS conferences cannot meet the 90% requirement (56.7 equivalents)—the Ivy League, which prohibits all athletic scholarships; the Patriot League and Pioneer Football League, which do not currently award football scholarships; and the Northeast Conference, which limits football scholarships to 38 equivalents.
6-6 teams with two wins over FCS schools.
Teams that finish 6-7 and lose in the conference championship game are next.
6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii’s home opponents. Although Hawaii normally plays a 13-game schedule, it is only playing 12 games this season.
FCS teams who are making the transition to the FBS, if they have at least a 6-6 record.
Finally, the nod would go to 5-7 teams that have a top-5 Academic Progress Rate score. For 2012, these teams are Northwestern, Duke, Boise State, Ohio State, and Northern Illinois. [2] All of these schools have 6 or more wins already, with Ohio State being ineligible due to sanctions.
hold on a second
November 16th, 2012
1:54 am
Did not see that contingency plan. But if I am reading that correctly, it would not be a guaranteed bowl game via the traditional ACC tie-ins. It would be a conditional bowl game that could be any bowl game, or not at all if there are enough bowl eligible teams.
5150 UOAD
November 16th, 2012
2:00 am
120 teams
-57 bowl eligible now
-34 Not eligible for postseason.
leaving 29 teams to fill 13 bowl slots
of those 29 teams 10 have not real shot at becoming Bowl Eligible
So that leaves 19 teams to fill 13 spots
Some of you saying TECH will not go bowling if they finish 6-7 are not the best at the NUMBERS.
Tech is also a better name brand than some of those 18 teams.
5150 UOAD
November 16th, 2012
2:02 am
Actually Tech is a better brand name than some of the Eligible right now. If Tech beats DUKE TECH will be bowling…..
hold on a second
November 16th, 2012
2:07 am
According to the plan, if there are, say, 73 bowl eligible teams for 70 spots (not including Tech), then Tech cannot go to a bowl game because the “bowl eligible” teams would go to any available bowls.
Tech would not be traditionally “bowl eligible”, but be in the third selection category of special cases.
5150 UOAD
November 16th, 2012
2:14 am
I don’t know for sure but if a bowl with an ACC tie-in I think would take 6-7 ACC CG loser over North Texas Southwestern State U at 7-5 or 8-4. Not sure but still 2 weeks to know for sure.
OSB
November 16th, 2012
8:48 am
Dang. Sounds like nobody from Coastal Division deserves to be in championship game.
dry dirt road
November 16th, 2012
8:51 am
article’s scenarios conjure recollection of English course at Tech called Drama taught by Helen Naugle, an Alabama grad, in which plays were read that included acts and scenes…Act 1, Scene 1, Act 1, Scene 2, Act 1, Scene 3, Act 2, Scene 1 etc.; got a C in course; had to write blue book exams on plays
gt4ever
November 16th, 2012
9:09 am
GT needs to stay at HOME! Stay at home and someone needs to decide if we want to play big boy football.. Otherwise, drop football all together. Right now, it’s a TOTAL embarrassment.
GT Lee
November 16th, 2012
10:19 am
the only embarrassment is you calling yourself a fan, gt4ever.
White&Gold
November 16th, 2012
10:42 am
You would think we were having the season Auburn was having. We’re 5-5, people. Yes,the MTSU loss was embarrasing, but games like that can happen to anybody. This is as a bad of a season we will have unde CPJ.
Ken Sugiura
November 16th, 2012
10:59 am
new posts about to go up. thanks for the, uh, compliments? (ha ha)
bluecole
November 16th, 2012
11:35 am
Ken, I would have been much more impressed if you’d added the statistical probability of the occurrences.
Jet
November 16th, 2012
12:09 pm
Ken,
You’re not a dope. You’re a great guy. Keep up the good work.
old dog
November 16th, 2012
2:03 pm
@GTgirl,
Yeah, our roundball team is terrible, but even our girls roudball team would have 400+ yards on ya’ll if we suit ‘em up…………
GT Lee
November 16th, 2012
3:05 pm
old dog, instead of letting the girls’ team do your dirty work, why don’t you and 10 of your buddies from the Senior Center suit up and hang 400+ yards on our D…..I dare you!
GTNUKE
November 16th, 2012
3:16 pm
Ken, how does your earlier analysis on the Coastal tiebreakers coexist with the official ACC tiebreakers when tiebreaker #3 which states, “3.Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional or conference) record, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.”
It seems breaking the tie for 4th place when reaching Step #3 to break the tie for first contradicts the last sentence that multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last.
I don’t know how the ACC could handle tiebreaker #3 any other way than using the combined record of the teams tied for first against any and all teams tied for 4th, or just say #3 doesn’t break it and move to the next tiebreaker.
Any other interpretation would seem to contradict the ACC’s official tiebreakers and, if it happens, needs to be questioned by all parties involved in said tiebreak.