No chance, after all, for Tech in three-way Coastal tie
In a story posted Sunday, I wrote that Georgia Tech could advance to the ACC championship game out of a three-way tie with Miami and North Carolina if Virginia finished in fourth place.
That part is true. However, at this point of the season, there is no way for Tech, Miami and North Carolina to finish in a three-way and Virginia to finish in fourth place. As a result, Tech’s only on-field course to Charlotte will require a win over Duke this Saturday and a Duke victory over Miami Nov. 24.
The other possibility would be for Tech to beat Duke and Miami to self-impose a postseason ban.
If you care to dive deep into the fine print of the ACC’s tiebreaker system, continue reading. If you don’t want to regret feeding the next five minutes of your life into a shredder, never to return again, please stop now.
Still here, huh?
So, there’s two ways that this three-way tie could happen.
Scenario 1
1. Georgia Tech beats Duke to finish 5-3.
2. Miami beats Duke to finish 5-3.
3. Duke loses to Tech and Miami and finishes 3-5.
4. Virginia loses to North Carolina and beats Virginia Tech to finish 3-5.
5. Virginia Tech loses to Boston College and Virginia and finishes 2-6.
6. North Carolina beats Virginia and Maryland to finish 5-3.
In this instance, the first two tiebreakers, head-to-head and division record, don’t separate the three teams. The three teams would all be 1-1 against each other and have the same division record, 3-2. The next tiebreaker is record against the next highest-ranked team in the division, in this case the fourth-place team. In this scenario, Duke and Virginia would be tied for fourth and Duke would be considered the fourth-place team since Duke beat Virginia.
North Carolina loses since it lost to Duke, leaving Georgia Tech and Miami. Then the two teams enter the two-team tiebreaker system, and Miami wins with its head-to-head win over Tech.
Scenario 2
1. Georgia Tech beats Duke to finish 5-3.
2. Miami beats Duke to finish 5-3. Duke finishes at 3-5
3. North Carolina beats Virginia and Maryland to finish 5-3.
4. Virginia loses to North Carolina and beats Virginia Tech to finish 3-5.
5. Virginia Tech beats Boston College and loses to Virginia to finish 3-5.
Like the first scenario, the teams can’t be separated through the first two tiebreakers, so again it’s necessary to determine the fourth-place team.
This is where it gets interesting or, if you happened to spend more hours than you care to admit trying to decipher the tiebreaker rules with the very excellent help of Mike DeGeorge in Georgia Tech’s sports information office and Mike Finn at the ACC, you lose your mind.
In this scenario, Duke, Virginia and Virginia Tech are tied for fourth. None of the first six tiebreakers separate the three teams, either because the records are the same or other reasons – head-to-head, division record, record against the highest-ranked division team (the reason the tiebreaker is necessary in the first place is because the highest-ranked team can’t be determined; that’s kind of a logic wormhole), non-division record, combined record against common non-division teams (there aren’t any common opponents) and then record against highest-ranked common non-division opponent (same reason).
The seventh tiebreaker is … BCS rankings. In the most recent rankings, Duke is No. 53, Virginia Tech is No. 72 and Virginia is No. 76. Even though this scenario would call for Duke and Virginia Tech to lose twice, Virginia does not appear capable of leapfrogging both Duke and Virginia Tech, particularly considering the Cavaliers would be 1-1 in their next two games. Further, by tiebreaker rules, Virginia would have to be ahead of Duke by at least five places in order to win the tiebreaker.
Said BCS expert Samuel Chi of bcsguru.com, “you’re not going to make up 20 points at this point of the season. With two games left, I just don’t see that happening.”
So, in this scenario, like the other, Duke is the fourth-place team. That knocks out North Carolina and leaves Miami and Tech, and Miami wins that tiebreaker.
In case you missed it…
Notes: Johnson to again wait on naming starting QB
Bradley: Tech as Coastal champion? Yep, it could happen
Tech season takes another turn
Tech-Georgia gets noon kickoff
Golden, Nealy ACC players of the week
Ken Sugiura, Georgia Tech blog
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75 comments Add your comment
old dog
November 14th, 2012
8:38 am
I like all my Tech buddies…..but the Coastal Division in the ACC???? Good Lord, whats next, the Class-A 8-man football championship? That division is as weak as a soup-sandwich.
Now, let me change gears. I know this will make some of ya’ll laugh, but if you can play any kind of defense against us, you have a chance. Tech will definitely be jacked-up for the game, and we may be a little flat. Who knows…….if we are looking ahead we may do like ‘Bama did against Johnny Football.
All this being said, if you are not gonna change coaching staff, etc. at least get some d-players. This will definitely help the cause, as lack of talent on the d-side is as big a problem for ya’ll as Coach Groh was.
Sideways 77
November 14th, 2012
9:01 am
“Old Timer” is right – forget about everything you can’t control! Just beat DUKE!
5150 UOAD
November 14th, 2012
9:14 am
Just WEAR the GOLD Helmets and beat DUKE…….
Johnson on Lee, offense, redshirt freshmen | Georgia Tech
November 14th, 2012
10:23 am
[...] No chance, after all, for Tech in three-way Coastal tie [...]
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
10:49 am
Ken,
Any “official” or even “unofficial” word on Miami as far as them giving a self-imposed ban on the Championship game?
In my opinion, this is all that matters with respect to GA Tech going…..
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
10:51 am
@old dog….
Why is it, that:
When the SEC teams beat up on each other, it is because they are sooooo strong. However, when any other conference teams beat up on each other, it is because they are sooooo weak?
Explain!
headley lamar
November 14th, 2012
10:59 am
When the SEC teams beat up on each other, it is because they are sooooo strong. However, when any other conference teams beat up on each other, it is because they are sooooo weak?
Because the SEC has a proven track record of domkinating the competition outside the conference.
Here is a stat that pretty much tells you all you need to know.
in BCS games the SEC is 16 and 7 in 23 contests.
In BCS games the ACC is 3 and 13 in 16 contests.
You could dive deeper and look at bowl records for both conferences. The SEC’s record will be very very good ( despite often playing a lower seed of their own against a higher seed from another conference; for example the Peach Bowl its ACC # 2 vs SEC # 5 )
The ACC’s record will not be very good.
Its right there for anybody to see who doesn’t have blinders on.
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
11:16 am
headley lamer –
That was not my posed question or statement. I never mentioned “outside the conference”.
When SEC teams lose to each other, we all hear things from their fans that “we beat up each other.” This has nothing to do with out-of-conference play.
You, like too many SEC fans, love to go off on tangents to justify your position. Stop. Just stop.
Birmingham Jacket
November 14th, 2012
11:35 am
Miami is a football school.
They will not self-impose a post season ban and pass up an opportunity to play for ACC Championship.
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
12:03 pm
@Birmingham Jacket,
Well, I am just not so sure. Look what happened to Ohio this year. The same could happen to Miami. Both are football schools.
If you were a Miami fan, would you rather pass up the ACC Champioinship Game this year (no hope of finishing in top 10) and hope this soothes the NCAA from further penalties, or would you rather do nothing and have the NCAA totally ban you next year when Miami has a great chance to make a run at the National Title Game?
I know that they (Miami) will not make an announcement until after the regular season and befor the ACC Title Game. But, this decision has HUGE implications for GA Tech football.
headley lamar
November 14th, 2012
12:16 pm
You, like too many SEC fans, love to go off on tangents to justify your position. Stop. Just stop.
If you cant understand how that answers your question then I cant help you.
The point is SEC Competition = Tough. So losing in the SEC is seen as not such a bad loss.
ACC Competition = Soft. So losing inside the ACC is seen as a bad loss and not necessarily “beating up on each other”
I hope that helps. I really do try and help Tech and ACC fans understand football.
That coupled with the low reading comprehension of Georgia public school students can make it difficult.
10 of 11 Supersize and 14GT
November 14th, 2012
12:40 pm
I like Tech over Duke but that is about it in Ken’s scenarios. Sorry Jackets but I do think Miami will beat Duke and go to the ACC championship.
Also, sorry to say Tech fans but GT has no chance against UGA. The difference between the two team is clear. UGA beat the bad teams it played (hence 8-1 record) and GT did not beat the bad teams they played (hence 5-5 record). Simple as that.
UGA is not a bad team and is actually pretty darn good and Tech did not beat any of the good teams they played.
White&Gold
November 14th, 2012
1:50 pm
Tech not winning some of the games they should have won does not mean they will not be able to stick around against UGA. Pretty darn good? First half trouble against Buffalo, Ole Miss, and FAU, three quarters of trouble against Mizzou, nearly going into OT against Tennessee, almost losing to Kentucky. Yet you’re a “pretty darn good team?” I think not. Teams (like the one you think you are) put teams to rest early and keep their foot on the gas.
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
1:55 pm
@headley lamar –
It seems that it is you and SEC fans that do not understand. Your condescension is recognized easily and not appreciated.
If Auburn loses to Vanderbilt it is a loss. It goes in the “L” column. Why is this hard for you to understand? I know that SEC schools are not rated highly academically, but I would think that at least that much you could understand.
If UNC loses to VA Tech it is a loss. It also goes in the “L” column.
Why is Auburn losing to Vanderbuilt mean it is okay for Auburn fans to say “but we beat up on each other” while UNC fans saying the same thing has less meaning?
The answer is something you would NEVER admit: your ego. It has nothing to do with football.
Insect in TN....
November 14th, 2012
1:57 pm
ok, so what happens if Tech beats Duke…..Miami beats Duke…..Virginia Loses to VaTech…..UGA beats Tech 51-7 again????? Do they still win the Coastal?
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
2:12 pm
@Insect…
The UGA game means nothing to the ACC. Nothing at all. Win or lose by any margin at all – it is meaningless. Get it?
old dog
November 14th, 2012
3:00 pm
The new ACC,
Congrats….it is painfully ovious that you are in the “intellectual-slothfulness” mode when it comes to ball. The ACC is far superior to the SEC in round-ball. In football, the ACC is just not a good conference. Yes, the SEC does cannabalize itself…..many of the best teams in the country ARE in the SEC, and by having to play each other, another (lesser) team can sneak in. “Bama, LSU, UGA, or South Carolina could smack Notre Dame…..the last time they were so high and mighty LSU and Jamarcus “my IQ is lower than a coffee-machine” Russell stomped ‘em. No problem pulling for your team, but the ACC (especially the “coastal” division) ain’t the real deal. You got some folks over here at UGA who want Tech to do ok; try not to flaunt your ignorance. Just get a D.
The New ACC
November 14th, 2012
3:51 pm
@old dog -
Again, like most every single SEC fan I have ever met, you want to go off on some tangent rather than sticking to a single topic.
No one is COMPARING conferences. No one is saying that ACC is stronger than SEC or that ACC is strong than SEC. By you mentioning that, you TOTALLY miss the point entirely.
The only thing that is discussing is the complete MIS-USE of the arguement “but we beat up on each other.” EVERY conference beats up on each other. That is point of even having a conference at all – isn’t it?
It is totally impossible for all teams in any conference to go undefeated. Therefore, they MUST “beat up on each other.”
However, the SEC fans way more so than fans of any other conference want to use the line “but we beat up on each other” to explain away losses as if the loss doesn’t matter. And, that is no explanation. However, as I said, it is a clear example of the ego of the SEC fans!
old dog
November 14th, 2012
4:16 pm
The ACC, whether it beats up on each other or not, is not in the “wieght division” of the SEC. Yes, they both beat each other down during the season….it is just that the SEC has SEVERAL of the top teams in the nation, 3-4 who are better than anyone else. Then, they get knocked off and perhaps out of a championship game due to a defeat by a team that is one of the four best. Oregon is for real……I agree. But Kansas, while good, and Notre Dame, while NOT that good, are NOT better than ‘Bama, LSU, South Carolina (even w/o Lattimore) or even Georgia. That is not arrogance…it is a fact. The SEC, like many other conferences, will be down sometime, I know. But for the present, it is far and away the best. If you think Notre Dame could beat a top SEC team, dream on. They have NOT faced SEC speed on defense, and have had to pull several games out late….and not all of them against good teams. The ACC Coastal will be good again; it ain’t right now. So, by beating up on each other it is of little consequence as none is ready for prime-time.
Ken Sugiura
November 14th, 2012
6:36 pm
reading tea leaves, my guess is that miami is going to self-impose.
regarding the earlier question about bcs rankings determining the winner, the way i understand it is that you’d use that to separate the three fourth-place teams.
Tech notes: NCAA experts say Miami should self-impose | Georgia Tech
November 14th, 2012
9:52 pm
[...] No chance, after all, for Tech in three-way Coastal tie [...]
10 out of 11 supersized 14 GT
November 15th, 2012
7:17 am
White and gold you didn’t do anything to take away from my point with your argument. When 60 minutes is up and the score is 31 -17 like last year or worse it doesn’t matter what the score was at minute 15 or 30 or 45. It still means you lost by two touchdowns and had no chance of beating us which us what I am claiming this year.
Score only matters after 60 minutes and that is why they play a full game . Struggled here, didn’t put away there, all sounds like wishful thinking pal. Outside of Tennessee and Kentucky those games ended in blowouts and outside of va tech so did yours just only the opposite outcome. Difference in a good team and a bad team dude. A good year and a bad year.
So if u lose to UGA 31-17 or worse like last year does it really matter what the score was at minute 15 or 30 or 45??? I say only if you are having a bad year and looking for positive signs imside of a loss and a game you couldnt win. Which really means you didnt have a chance at winning which is my point.
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November 15th, 2012
11:46 am
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10:00 pm
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Pete
November 16th, 2012
12:47 am
In scenario #2, wouldn’t the BCS tiebreaker be done on the 3 teams tied for first before it’s done for the 3 tied for 4th? As stated, there is a “logic wormhole” that prevents either spot being determined on the 3rd tiebreaker , so they would continue to go down the tiebreakers for gt-unc-Mia, I think.
Miami still would win in that case.