Tech’s chances of winning Coastal

Assuming Miami decides to stay out of the pokey, Georgia Tech’s chances for winning the ACC Coastal Division soared from unlikely to slightly less unlikely Thursday night with Florida State’s defeat of Virginia Tech.

The Seminoles beat the Hokies 26-22 in Blacksburg, Va., to give Virginia Tech its fourth conference loss. Georgia Tech, with three conference defeats (3-3), now only has Miami to worry about if it can beat both North Carolina and Duke.

Miami is 4-2 and would need to drop its last two against Virginia Saturday and Duke in two weeks. Or, of course, self-impose a bowl ban as part of its penalties for alleged NCAA rules violations. There has been plenty of speculation about whether Miami will decide on a ban, and I think at this point it’s merely that.

Consider this, though – USC was hit with a two-year bowl ban (among other penalties) for infractions that largely centered around one player, Reggie Bush. If the details in the Yahoo report are accurate, Miami’s infractions are far more widespread, sustained and institutional. The 2011 report alleged eight years of rule breaking, “some of it with the knowledge or direct participation of at least seven coaches from the Miami football and basketball programs.”

Predicting an NCAA penalty based on past rulings is probably a fool’s errand, but a two-year bowl ban hardly seems out of line, and Miami might do well to take its medicine.

That said, a chance to win an ACC title is hard to pass up. The Hurricanes have yet to win one since joining the ACC. At least as part of the ongoing investigation, it wouldn’t be vacated, like Georgia Tech’s was, since the NCAA’s investigation isn’t into violations committed this season.

At any rate, let’s say Miami is out. Then what?

Tech would secure the ACC Coastal title by beating North Carolina and Duke.

If Tech were to lose to North Carolina, then it would have four league losses and Virginia Tech would regain its tiebreaker over the Jackets. Then Tech would need to beat Duke next Saturday and have the Hokies lose to either Boston College or Virginia. Either is unlikely, but so is Virginia Tech having lost five of its last six.

(As an aside, this has been an unusually unpredictable season in the ACC, but I’d say that the collapse of the Hokies is probably the strangest development of the season. Remember that Virginia Tech had won 10 or more games eight years in a row coming into 2012 and was talking about how this year’s defense could be the best in school history.)

So, anyway, if the Hokies were to lose to B.C. or Virginia and Tech lost to North Carolina and beat Duke, Tech would go to Charlotte with a 5-7 record and Mike Slive would likely skip the SEC championship game in order to attend the ACC championship game and administer an atomic wedgie to John Swofford.

Duke is 3-3. Its last two games are against Tech next Saturday and Miami the following week. The Blue Devils would go to Charlotte by winning those two in a Miami bowl-ban scenario. Or, if Virginia Tech were to take a fifth conference loss, the Blue Devils could lose to Miami and still gain the division title by beating Tech.

What are Tech’s chances? I found a website you might find interesting. Atomic Football gives Tech a 27.3 percent chance of beating North Carolina Saturday and an 80.3 percent chance of beating Duke. That means a 21.9 percent chance of beating both. It gave Miami a 54.4 percent chance of beating Virginia (surprisingly low, but it’s a road game for the Hurricanes) and a 63.6 percent chance of beating Duke. So the probability of Miami losing both is 16.6 percent.

The chance of both happening (Tech going 2-0 and Miami going 0-2), then, according to Atomic Football, is 3.6 percent.

Atomic Football has picked games straight up at a .757 rate this year. Here’s another site for the mathematically inclined – predictiontracker.com. It rates the accuracy of various algorithm-based prediction models. (I got into sports writing so I could write sentences like that last one.)

That’s all I’ve got.

Ken Sugiura, Georgia Tech blog

54 comments Add your comment

Flowery Branch Yellow Jacket

November 9th, 2012
12:16 pm

Honestly, I’m not sure we should even HAVE an ACC Championship game this season, unless perhaps our two representatives are Florida State and Clemson.

Flowery Branch Yellow Jacket

November 9th, 2012
12:17 pm

No one from the Coastal division has earned the right to go.

FL Jacket

November 9th, 2012
12:24 pm

So you’re saying there’s a chance???

GT Fan

November 9th, 2012
12:31 pm

(As an aside, this has been an unusually unpredictable season in the ACC, but I’d say that the collapse of the Hokies is probably the strangest development of the season.
————————————
I disagree, Ken.

I said it back in August that, win or lose vs GT, VT would finish 3rd or worse in the Coastal this season.
Why did I think that? Because I equated their offensive personel losses from 2011 to 2012 to GT’s and Clemson’s from 2009 to 2010.

Very similar to GT losing Dwyer, Bebe, and some OLmen, and Clemson losing Spiller, Jacoby Ford, their QB, and I think 4 OLmen from 2009 to 2010, VT lost 4 OL, David Wilson, and the 2 most prolific WRs in VT history from 2011 to 2012.

In 2010 both GT and Clemson finished with 6-7 records. At this point VT now has 6 Ls. And I have a feeling they’re going to lose to UVA too, thus missing a bowl game to boot. Very pathetic season from VT, especially considering Bud Foster’s claims of this being the best D he’s ever had at VT.

D

November 9th, 2012
12:35 pm

GT Fan: Enlightening…

[...] Tech’s Chances of Winning Coastal (Atlanta Journal-Constitution) [...]

gotech

November 9th, 2012
12:57 pm

Glad I had ststistics at Tech. Most interesting news article I have ever read (which doesn’t say much for other things I read) Go Jackets

SNOWBALL's CHANCE

November 9th, 2012
12:57 pm

If there is a chance, then the ACC Commissioner needs to step in and do the right thing and relegate every team in the Coastal Division down to the Sunbelt Conference. Well, wait a minute, MTSU is in the Sunbelt, better send GT down to the MEAC or SWAC .

JM

November 9th, 2012
1:03 pm

If only GT could have won just one of those OT games….

[headbang]

Shocked

November 9th, 2012
1:04 pm

Ken-
Tech would go to Charlotte with a 5-7 record and Mike Slive would likely skip the SEC championship game in order to attend the ACC championship game and administer an atomic wedgie to John Swofford.

Guess you have given up on us against uga?

10per

November 9th, 2012
1:08 pm

If only the Tech D had forced a punt in the 4th quarter in the VT or Miami game…

Wrecking Ball

November 9th, 2012
1:18 pm

Nice article. I was pulling for FSU yesterday just so we would have a chance at the ACCCG, but even still, it was painful to watch the end-of-4th-quarter collapse by VT D. They were doing their best to channel their inner GT D.

Any way, this is all a big IF hinging on the UNC game. I *hope* we win it, based on our previous good record against them, and have hope for the W tomorrow and bowl eligibility. I believe our O can overcome their D, but I am worried about our D. Really hope that Attaochu brings the same kind of energy with him to North Carolina as he did to Maryland. We need our D fired up for this one. And for the love of god, Scully, please get it together. Just relax and go like in practice, because we hear you do well there.

Wrecking Ball

November 9th, 2012
1:20 pm

Commentator yesterday after the final FSU drive said “The only thing prevent defense prevents is you winning”. So yeah, where else would that be applicable, hmm? Here’s hoping Coach Kelly is more aggressive than his predecessor, if we come to rely on a last-minute hold by the D for a W.

George Stein

November 9th, 2012
1:36 pm

The ACC Coastal is basically the Pac-12 South at this point.

George Stein

November 9th, 2012
1:39 pm

I have to admit that I found myself wanting to troll VT fans last night as it was basically Labor Day in reverse. I resisted the urge as I recalled that my team sucks and lost to them.

Coach

November 9th, 2012
1:54 pm

Given the chance, I would take the playoffs and be glad for it. Scheduling makes seasons (ask UGA), and who knows how difficult the next few years may be. Plus if we win 2 or 3 more, then that would tell me that the team is getting better and may, just may, be ready for bigger things. Let’s take the opportunity if it comes.

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
1:55 pm

I could care less about your criticisms of the Coastal division or this team. We have a chance of going to the ACCCG!! To heck with the toxic nay-sayers! GO TEAM prove them all wrong!!!

Nothing overcomes a slow start like a raging finish!!!!

Ah, c'mon, guys...

November 9th, 2012
1:58 pm

…if you play within the rules and things happen to fall your way even when you suck then it must mean you are doing something right…but, it sure feels weird to suck this bad and still have a chance to win a championship…

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
2:04 pm

Just imagine how much it might help our team if they had a solid, electric, excited fan base behind them. Despite how many ups and downs they’ve had this season, they have a chance to not only make bowl eligibility, but play in the ACCCG!!!!!! If thats not enough to get FANS fired up, then you really cant even call yourself a fan! To heck with all the stats… just lay it all on the field one game at a time starting tomorrow!!

C’MON GUYS, YOU CANNNNNNNN DO IT!!

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
2:25 pm

OUR TEAM DOESN’T SUCK!!!!! We’ve had some tough breaks. VTand UM games were a matter of one play. I’d hardly call that sucking. Its been a roller coaster season. But if (and I should say WHEN) we win the next 2 games, we will have earned the HONOR of playing in the ACCCG! Lets not cheapen the honor just because it hasn’t been a storybook season. We had a rough start, but we can have an equally awesome finish!

Whats SUCKS are fans who cant get behind their team and be supportive. Its like the team has to overcome to opponents every week… the other team and the “so called GT fans”.

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
2:27 pm

two not to…

atowndown

November 9th, 2012
2:34 pm

Really? It’s the fan’s fault? Yeah you are right “take the wheel”, I really should have run down from the stands to make a tackle during the 4th quarter of the VT and Miami games. I also should have run onto the field and made a couple of throws, catches, runs, tackles, or kicks during the MTSU game. My bad.

GT97

November 9th, 2012
2:36 pm

WTF!!! So we might go to the ACC championship game. I better book my travel arrangements now…..NOT Just kidding. The wedgie comment above was hilarious.

GT 88

November 9th, 2012
2:50 pm

If Tech wins against UNC and Duke and UNC wins its remaining conference games wouldn’t UM, UNC and GT all be 5-3 and 1-1 against each other? What is the tie break at that point?

CT_Jacket

November 9th, 2012
3:08 pm

Worse case scenario for the ACC? Tech goes to the ACC CG at 5-7 and beats the Atlantic champion, then goes to the Orange Bowl with a 6-7 record.

Highly Respected Southern Troll

November 9th, 2012
3:19 pm

The ACC Atlantic Division is no great shakes but the Coastal Division is a dumpster fire.

Uh, GT88...

November 9th, 2012
3:32 pm

…UNC cannot go to the championship game as part of their pennance to the NCAA for their transgressions – so, UM would go since they beat GT…but that is up in the air since they may forego that the game as part of their “expected” mangling by the NCAA for THEIR past transgressions…

Jacket Time

November 9th, 2012
3:45 pm

as much as I love to hope and dream, there is NO WAY Miami foregoes a bowl game if they win the Coastal and have a shot at taking the ACC crown. Lets get real guys. They won’t lose their trophy so what do they have to gain with a bowl ban?

Jacket Time

November 9th, 2012
3:56 pm

OK this article may have answered my question:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/other/fl-davehyde-commentary-1109-20121109,0,1859128.column

so there is a chance Miami will do another bowl ban

GTPhenom

November 9th, 2012
4:00 pm

Still a really good chance Miami loses their remaining games this season. They really aren’t all that good. The Jackets are a team that still has a mission, something that I thought was long gone after the VT game. I’ve been down on that since the beginning, but haven’t stopped supporting this team yet. Everyone get out there and show these guys support the rest of the way. The UNC game is definitely a winnable game, as is the Duke game, and regardless of what UGA fans may believe, we can beat them to. We’ve had some bad breaks go our way this season, so maybe it’s time they get some to go their way instead. Go Jackets, and THWg

wrecked again

November 9th, 2012
4:06 pm

The ACC Coastal or as it should be called Probation division is the worst in college football. All the teams suck. UNC just sucks a little less.

Dogkicker

November 9th, 2012
4:13 pm

ya kidding me right!!!!

13 fans

November 9th, 2012
5:04 pm

The team does not suck, but the uniforms suck big time !! Where is the pride in the way we look at Georgia Tech. Why are we wearing uniforms that look this bad.

Yes, 13 fans...

November 9th, 2012
5:10 pm

…any team that loses 5 games in a given season sucks – especially if coached by someone who says that “good teams don’t lose 2 games in a row”, and this team lost not only 2, but 3 games in a row…

1 4 GT

November 9th, 2012
5:39 pm

We WILL win tomorrow.

Stinger 1

November 9th, 2012
6:16 pm

Hate to say this but GT is not a good team this year. I would be happy with one more
win. Let it somehow be against UGA.. Even in the unlikely event we won the Coastal
Div. GT cannot beat Fla. St. and Clemson has already beat us. That would leave us 6-7 which would not get us in a bowl game unless someone would take a team with a losing record.

collegeballfan

November 9th, 2012
6:43 pm

“…algorithm-based prediction models.”

Isn’t this how Obama won?

1 4 GT

November 9th, 2012
6:43 pm

NAME THIEF ALERT!!!!!! Post under my blpg handle @ 5:39 PM today November 9 2012 is the phony NAME THIEF!!!! FWI!!

gtkenz

November 9th, 2012
7:55 pm

Tech should beat UNC and Duke. Since 1990:
Versus UNC – Tech 14 wins, UNC 7 wins, Ties 1
Versus Duke – Tech 20 wins, Duke 2 wins
If Tech is 6-6 and 5-3 in the Coastal and Miami bows out for cheating and breaking tons of NCAA rules for years, including players, alumni, and coaches, then darn straight Tech should play FSU for the ACC title and Tech should go to a bowl game with or without wins against UGA and FSU. Hey, 2012 has been frustrating, so was the end of 2011 and most of 2010, but Tech need not make any pleas from fans to accept them as a Coastal representative in the ACC Title Game. Georgia Tech did not stop playing football after Bobby Dodd retired from coaching, much like the UGA trolls would have everyone believe. Were there tough times that could have been avoided, absolutely. Did Tech have to reinvent itself on the Football field in the 70’s and 80’s, yes. However, Tech IS achieving success on the football field having a winning record against 13 BCS opponents since 1990. A losing record against 11 BSC opponents and .500 against 3 BCS opponents. 17 Bowl Games, 2 Division Titles, 3 ACC Titles, and 1 National Championship, all in the last 21 years. Not too shabby.
Auburn – 2-0
Arizona – 0-2
BC – 4-2
BYU – 1-2
Clemson – 13-11
Duke – 20-2
FSU – 2-12
Iowa – 0-1
Kansas – 1-1
LSU – 0-2
Maryland – 14-5
Miami – 4-6
Miss St – 2-0
NC St – 13-6
Notre Dame – 2-2
PSU – 0-1
South Carolina – 1-1
Stanford – 2-0
Syracuse – 2-0
UVA – 10-13
Vandy – 3-0
VA Tech – 3-7
UGA – 5-17
UNC – 14-7-1
UCONN – 3-0
Utah – 0-2
Wake Forest – 13-5

Slovak

November 9th, 2012
8:09 pm

Gtkenz, GaTech was probably the better team in it’s 14 wins againstUNC. But that is not the case this yr, ergo, UNC shud win tomorrow.

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
8:23 pm

OMG… Its insane of me to keep coming here expecting anything different from you people.

@atowndown… did I say anything about you making any tackles??? The point is although fans DONT MAKE ANY PHYSICAL PLAYS ON THE FIELD there is an advantage of having an electric fan base that show up and gives the extra boost to stand and fight even when they are perhaps facing a disadvantage.

You know…thats why people consider playing at home at advntage??!! Its “like” having an extra man on the field. No you wouldn’t know that because there is no such thing at Tech.

... Take The Wheel

November 9th, 2012
8:26 pm

@collegeballfan – I’m laughing out loud right now!!! Its gonna be a long four AND A HALF YEARS if some of you dont get over it!!! LOLOLOLOLOL

... Crash and burn

November 9th, 2012
8:50 pm

It’s going to be a long 4.5 yrs no matter who you are or what you do

DawgNole

November 9th, 2012
8:57 pm

Highly Respected Southern Troll
November 9th, 2012
3:19 pm

The ACC Atlantic Division is no great shakes but the Coastal Division is a dumpster fire.
_______________________

“No great shakes”? The Atlantc Div has TWO one-loss, top-10 teams. More than a few conferences wish they could say the same.

gtkenz

November 9th, 2012
9:26 pm

@Slovak, when you are 14-7-1 in the last 22, you are the better team and you should win. If Tech loses tomorrow it’s all coaching and preperation. If I beat you once, no big deal. If I beat you 3 times, it’s a pattern. If I beat you consistently, it’s an expectation. Tech should, or as you say, shud win tomorrow.

Slovak

November 9th, 2012
9:48 pm

UNC has best OL in con, best RB, 16th ranked defense against run in country, one of best QB’si in con, and you are talking about the past. Hell Tech has never played against this team and this coach. I hope you aren’t going to bet on Tech.

nh

November 9th, 2012
10:17 pm

Just btw, playoffstatus.com does a great job considering these sorts of probabilities. It gives tech a 3% chance as well. Although it doesn’t take into account the fact that UNC is out.

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 10th, 2012
7:29 am

This will all be academic after Tech loses today.

Not having a defense will do that to you.

Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American

November 10th, 2012
7:31 am

Oh, and UNC had a bye week before the Tech game, so…..

ECDawg

November 10th, 2012
9:01 am

It’s a good thing for all involved that Middle Tennessee State hasn’t been accepted into the ACC Coastal yet……….lol