Could Tech win the Coastal?

Greetings-

I’m not one to pass up an opportunity to slip “Dumb and Dumber” into the blog, so, with that, let’s take a look at Georgia Tech’s outside (as in Canadian wilderness) chance to win the Coastal Division.

In reality, it’s not entirely unreasonable, particularly given how balanced the league seems to be. I guess “balanced” is a nice way of saying no one in the division seems to have a lot going for it. Every team in the league has a conference loss already and only North Carolina has yet to lose a division game, and the Tar Heels are ineligible to win the division because of their NCAA malfeasance.

For the sake of simplicity, we’ll have to assume Tech runs the table in the conference to finish 5-3, beating Boston College, Maryland (road), North Carolina (road) and Duke. Winning a division at 5-3 has precedent. Since splitting to two divisions in 2005, three teams (Florida State 2005, Boston College 2008, Virginia Tech 2008) have won with 5-3 conference records.

At 2-4 overall and 1-3 in the ACC, Tech may not seem like much of a candidate to accomplish this task. That said, the Jackets will be favored in each remaining ACC game but North Carolina (so said sports book director Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton, although that was before the firing of Al Groh, so not sure how that would impact the line.)

The win over Duke would grant the Jackets the tiebreaker, at which point the Blue Devils would just need one more league loss to finish 5-3 at best. Tech also has the tiebreaker over Virginia, which is 1-2 and also needs to take one more loss.

The more elusive element is getting Virginia Tech and Miami, both of which hold tiebreakers over the Jackets, to four losses. But both have difficult roads home, so it’s not entirely out of the question. Unlikely, certainly. For your reading pleasure, each school is listed with ACC record and division record. The games that would seem like the biggest pitfalls are bolded.

Virginia Tech (2-1, 2-1)

10/20 At Clemson (Tigers coming off a bye)

11/01 At Miami (Thursday night game, both teams will have off weekends prior)

11/08 Florida State (Seminoles coming off a bye)

11/17 at Boston College

11/24 Virginia

It’s hard to envision the Hokies losing three in a row. Virginia has lost 12 of 13 to Virginia Tech, including each of the last three by 29 or more.

Duke (2-1, 1-1)

10/20 North Carolina

10/17 at Florida State

11/3 Clemson

11/17 at Georgia Tech

11/24 Miami

The Blue Devils need one more win to be bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. It would be an exquisite collapse for Duke to reach 5-1 and then lose its final six games to miss out on a bowl.

Miami (3-1, 2-1)

10/20 Florida State

11/01 Virginia Tech

11/10 at Virginia

11/24 at Duke

This appears the most far-fetched leg of the scenario, which is saying something since Tech also needs Virginia Tech to lose three games in a row. For what it’s worth, Virginia has beaten Miami two years in a row. Duke has not beaten Miami since the Hurricanes joined the ACC. The Miami-Virginia Tech result is interchangeable – both teams need losses – but then the Hokies would need to lose to either Boston College or Virginia.

North Carolina (2-1, 2-0)

10/20 At Duke

10/27 N.C. State

11/10 Georgia Tech

11/15 at Virginia

11/24 Maryland

Not a factor, except for that the Tar Heels would need to lose to Tech.

Virginia (1-2, 0-2)

10/20 Wake Forest

11/03 at N.C. State

11/10 Miami

11/15 North Carolina

11/24 at Virginia Tech

Should the Jackets run the table, they would need to just one more loss from the Cavaliers.

ACC tiebreaker policy here.

Thanks for reading. I’ll have more this afternoon from Paul Johnson’s weekly news conference, followed by notes in the evening.

Ken Sugiura, Georgia Tech blog

94 comments Add your comment

Same Old

October 16th, 2012
3:14 pm

We will not win another game after BC.

Same Old

October 16th, 2012
3:21 pm

Typical Tech team. They’ll get the big head after beating BC. Then they won’t show up for BYU. Then after losing the forth game, they’ll quit for the rest of the season. Maybe play good first 1/4 vs UGA, then quit! New DC, same HC! Johnson system not working!
Same Old, Same Old!

Same Old

October 16th, 2012
3:27 pm

Oh yeah, I forgot….
After that we’ll have a losing BB season too!
Then we’ll do it all again next year.

SS loves Obama

October 16th, 2012
3:41 pm

Delbert D.

October 16th, 2012
3:43 pm

billick, y’all. when it happens, you heard it hear FIRST. think about it. Navy in Annapolis, Baltimore Ravens close by = they are good, good friends that have a mutual respect. Mark it down.

TechApp fan

October 16th, 2012
3:44 pm

Ken, is this a trick question?

Have you Kicked your DWAG today?

October 16th, 2012
3:45 pm

Delbert D., interesting scenario. I have heard a similar rumor…might have legs to it! Here’s to hoping Billick can recruit!

WWMRD?

October 16th, 2012
3:47 pm

Does anyone else want to kick the crap out of St. Richt on his silly little Ford commercials? He looks JUST LIKE HELEN HUNT!

Jacket Fan in 'Tardville (Winder)

October 16th, 2012
3:50 pm

Winder = UGA Capital of Georgia – Never in my life have I seen more folks that look like they crawled out from under a rock…must make the Fine University Very Proud!

SS loves Obama

October 16th, 2012
3:51 pm

Billick makes $5 million plus in his current job. He ain’t taking a paycut to come to the college level.

SS loves Obama

October 16th, 2012
3:52 pm

@WWMRD…I appreciate your passion but please tone down the rhetoric.

NYJacket

October 16th, 2012
3:59 pm

When you reorganize, you create the illusion of progress.

[...] Could Tech win the Coastal? [...]

all i remember is the defense fell apart

October 16th, 2012
4:04 pm

`
The firing of Al Groh can only help GT.

Grinch

October 16th, 2012
4:26 pm

CPJ will NOT play Vad Lee this year b/c his job is on the line or at least in the hot seat. He wants to win NOW and TW gives him the best chance right now. Vad will be a superior QB compared to TW but it will take Vad a game or two to iron out the kinks…and CPJ doesn’t have a game or two. He needs to win out to go to a bowl game.

mansup

October 16th, 2012
5:07 pm

Oh m goodness! This team is awful. There are some obvious problems in coaching, game plans, defensive strategies, etc., but anyone who watches the games, and is honest, must admit this: the players are just not very talented. Period. They are not going to win the Coastal, or go to a bowl game. Not even in a dream.

Same Old

October 16th, 2012
5:16 pm

No chance, no way, no how!
Bring back O’leary.
Get rid of Johnson Head and DRad!

Road Scholar

October 16th, 2012
5:19 pm

Let’s just win our next game, huh?

CoolBreeze

October 16th, 2012
5:45 pm

Yep. At this point, I’d like to see us beat BC

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fan

October 16th, 2012
6:04 pm

You must be kidding. The blowflys couldn’t beat some of the better high school teams in Atlanta.

...Take The Wheel

October 16th, 2012
6:19 pm

Ken thanks for trying to infuse some hope into this bunch!!! I know it must get tough writing for such cynics!

I like you, know its a LOOOOOONG SHOT! But hey it doesn’t hurt to be hopeful. Darn whats a tean to do when their own fans wont at least hope for the long shot with them!! I just dont get. We are all realists but just what does it hurt to be positive sometimes!

...Take The Wheel

October 16th, 2012
6:23 pm

Cant imagine how excited recruits must be to come play for our fans!!

When we showed up at Clemson a few weeks ago, It was unbelievable. There were tents and fans EV ER Y WHERE! Never mind that Clemson was 2-4 agains us! They showed up and it was electric. Is that too much to ask of Tech fans?? Or are we “too smart” to be hopeful?

We ask so much of the young men who do land themselves at Tech, yet we give so little for them.

…that is all – TTW out

Things are already looking up - Page 4

October 16th, 2012
6:29 pm

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WWMRD

October 16th, 2012
6:37 pm

ss loves Oh bahmah, you lost all credibility due to supporting Oh-bahmah. How you like that rhetoric?

Nesbitt

October 16th, 2012
8:27 pm

GEORGIA TECH COULD NOT BEAT THEIR WAY OUT OF A PAPER SACK!!!! YOUR TEAM,FANS AND COACH ARE SICKENING

GaBud

October 16th, 2012
8:33 pm

We love killing yellow flies in november in ATHENS

Nesbitt

October 16th, 2012
8:34 pm

Got to agree with you GaBud

1 4 GT

October 16th, 2012
8:38 pm

I guess the leg humpers are back….as if they don’t have enough to worry about….#2 UFl coming up for them & got embarrassed by USCe…..but bless their “widdle hearts thems worried bout us’ns”….ain’t that sweet of them to care……………………………………..LOL

GTGirl

October 16th, 2012
10:13 pm

LOL at 1 4 GT! Can’t stand the inbreds who come on this blog. After UGAg more than likely beats KY, they need to be worried about Gators, not us.

Nesbitt

October 16th, 2012
10:41 pm

WE BEAT gt for sure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.

Tech Guy

October 16th, 2012
11:44 pm

There isn’t a chance in hell Tech wins the Coastal Division. I’m concerned about just having a winning season.

rtulisalo

October 17th, 2012
4:47 am

Really? Could the ACC stand the embarassement of that? Tech is a joke to major college football with their gimmick (Navy, Army, Ga Southern) offense. If they do win the division, it says more about the quality of football being played in the ACC than the quality of their team. The ACC should kick Tech out of the conference and invite either Louisiana-Monroe or Middle Tennessee State. I’ll let the record speak for itself. At least, those schools play REAL football.

Tech Fan

October 17th, 2012
6:38 am

And we laughed at UGa for “backing into” the SEC championship,game with a 10-2 record!!!

Phil

October 17th, 2012
6:46 am

Johnson should be fired!

Nativebird

October 17th, 2012
7:17 am

No way, no how. Not today, not tomorrow, not next year or the year after that, as long as this idiot is in charge.

UGA ALL THE WAY.

October 17th, 2012
7:25 am

NO WAY, can they win the divison. Georgia will kick their can’s ALL THE WAY,back to Atlanta.

Dadgum.....

October 17th, 2012
9:11 am

I’m not sure GT can win out. Actually I’m positive of it. UNC will beat us. Also Duke will lose every remaining game so they won’t even get bowl eligible. If we lose to Duke then DRAD should fire Johnson. There are no less than 50 high schools in Texas with better facilities than Duke. Why we still have that Ivy League team in the ACC is beyond me.

DOC 51

October 17th, 2012
9:29 am

I wonder what S.DAYS thinks of the CPJ SYSTEM now.What a waste of talent his career is.

University of Georgia Tech Technical Institute of Technology

October 17th, 2012
11:58 am

I’m tired of talking about football. Let’s bust on Richt and UGA some more, and pretend like we’re not the worst team in the State.

roughrider

October 17th, 2012
1:54 pm

You are pathetic if a win over UGA is your high point of the season.With that said, Tech has as good a chance of winning the ACC championship as UGA has in winning the SEC championship.

JQDogUNC

October 17th, 2012
3:56 pm

Wow, the arrogance. We’ll see if you beat us in Chapel Hill for our Homecoming game. Finally have an offense to match that chop blocking offense the bees run. And we don’t chop block. I’ll be back 11/12/12 to see what excuses ya’ll have that Monday. Beat MTSU before you talk about my Tar Heels. Oh yeah, we beat Va Tech AND da U. Buzz around that for a while!

GO HEELS!

GTGirl

October 17th, 2012
10:44 pm

Ken-by the way, great clip of D & D! That was hilarious.
UNCdog- We lost in OT to VT and ‘da U’. But hopefully we will beat UNC at Chapel Hil!
Go Jackets!

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