Could Tech win the Coastal?

Greetings-

I’m not one to pass up an opportunity to slip “Dumb and Dumber” into the blog, so, with that, let’s take a look at Georgia Tech’s outside (as in Canadian wilderness) chance to win the Coastal Division.

In reality, it’s not entirely unreasonable, particularly given how balanced the league seems to be. I guess “balanced” is a nice way of saying no one in the division seems to have a lot going for it. Every team in the league has a conference loss already and only North Carolina has yet to lose a division game, and the Tar Heels are ineligible to win the division because of their NCAA malfeasance.

For the sake of simplicity, we’ll have to assume Tech runs the table in the conference to finish 5-3, beating Boston College, Maryland (road), North Carolina (road) and Duke. Winning a division at 5-3 has precedent. Since splitting to two divisions in 2005, three teams (Florida State 2005, Boston College 2008, Virginia Tech 2008) have won with 5-3 conference records.

At 2-4 overall and 1-3 in the ACC, Tech may not seem like much of a candidate to accomplish this task. That said, the Jackets will be favored in each remaining ACC game but North Carolina (so said sports book director Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton, although that was before the firing of Al Groh, so not sure how that would impact the line.)

The win over Duke would grant the Jackets the tiebreaker, at which point the Blue Devils would just need one more league loss to finish 5-3 at best. Tech also has the tiebreaker over Virginia, which is 1-2 and also needs to take one more loss.

The more elusive element is getting Virginia Tech and Miami, both of which hold tiebreakers over the Jackets, to four losses. But both have difficult roads home, so it’s not entirely out of the question. Unlikely, certainly. For your reading pleasure, each school is listed with ACC record and division record. The games that would seem like the biggest pitfalls are bolded.

Virginia Tech (2-1, 2-1)

10/20 At Clemson (Tigers coming off a bye)

11/01 At Miami (Thursday night game, both teams will have off weekends prior)

11/08 Florida State (Seminoles coming off a bye)

11/17 at Boston College

11/24 Virginia

It’s hard to envision the Hokies losing three in a row. Virginia has lost 12 of 13 to Virginia Tech, including each of the last three by 29 or more.

Duke (2-1, 1-1)

10/20 North Carolina

10/17 at Florida State

11/3 Clemson

11/17 at Georgia Tech

11/24 Miami

The Blue Devils need one more win to be bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. It would be an exquisite collapse for Duke to reach 5-1 and then lose its final six games to miss out on a bowl.

Miami (3-1, 2-1)

10/20 Florida State

11/01 Virginia Tech

11/10 at Virginia

11/24 at Duke

This appears the most far-fetched leg of the scenario, which is saying something since Tech also needs Virginia Tech to lose three games in a row. For what it’s worth, Virginia has beaten Miami two years in a row. Duke has not beaten Miami since the Hurricanes joined the ACC. The Miami-Virginia Tech result is interchangeable – both teams need losses – but then the Hokies would need to lose to either Boston College or Virginia.

North Carolina (2-1, 2-0)

10/20 At Duke

10/27 N.C. State

11/10 Georgia Tech

11/15 at Virginia

11/24 Maryland

Not a factor, except for that the Tar Heels would need to lose to Tech.

Virginia (1-2, 0-2)

10/20 Wake Forest

11/03 at N.C. State

11/10 Miami

11/15 North Carolina

11/24 at Virginia Tech

Should the Jackets run the table, they would need to just one more loss from the Cavaliers.

ACC tiebreaker policy here.

Thanks for reading. I’ll have more this afternoon from Paul Johnson’s weekly news conference, followed by notes in the evening.

Ken Sugiura, Georgia Tech blog

94 comments Add your comment

The GT future

October 16th, 2012
9:08 am

If ….. If …. IF GT wins out and stil is slaughtered by another sub par UGA tea, GT … might, might then be selected by the Independence Bowl vs. Elon College or Citadel.

GT ……. It is what it is.

NOVAJacket

October 16th, 2012
9:21 am

If Duke had beaten VPI, Tech might have had a realistic scenario to get there, but now just can’t see both VPI and the U getting four losses…

NYJacket

October 16th, 2012
9:23 am

ty webb

October 16th, 2012
9:23 am

No…next question.

www

October 16th, 2012
9:24 am

nope.

but tech can still have a good season if they win out.

there’s a lot to play for:

a winning record.

a victory over uga.

a bowl game win.

game experience for the younger players.

momentum for 2013.

UGA = Yawn

October 16th, 2012
9:24 am

Pls stop. This is just assinine. No we can NOT win the Coastal!

Red dog

October 16th, 2012
9:26 am

What a stupid blog. U have a 0% chance. You won’t even make a bowl.

observer

October 16th, 2012
9:28 am

The question should be could GT win the Sun Belt or Southern conference? Under the great coach PJ, I doubt it.

Crazy Robert

October 16th, 2012
9:28 am

Georgia Tech is always number one with me but if TECH wins the Coastal it just proves the ACC is basically a second tier conference, at least in football.

Ken Sugiura

October 16th, 2012
9:33 am

i thought i’d posted the clip, but didn’t. just put it up.

Freddie Blassie

October 16th, 2012
9:35 am

“So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
Okay, Lloyd. VPI ain’t losing to BC or Va. and I don’t give a rat’s hiney about the ACC Coastal title now.
I will guarantee this, right now, right here at the Atlanta Municipal Auditorium with Ed Capral as my witness, Georgia Tech will win the rest of their games this season with a huge victory over Georgia in Athens.

Techman1958

October 16th, 2012
9:42 am

Don’t think winning division is likely, but a 5-3 conf record and 8-4 overall would leave a lot better feeling considering start we’ve had. Go Jackets!1

juvenal

October 16th, 2012
9:54 am

so what are the odds?

Freezekalo72

October 16th, 2012
10:20 am

There is an outside change and the ACC is wacky enough to have the right chips fall where they may so that Tech can get in the ACCCG.

However, Tech truly needs to pull some things together before we can claim to have a seat at that game. But anyone can win or loose on any given day. Tech has a shot.

Just gotta take one game at a time. It starts with Boston College this Saturday. BC has only won one game, but they have been in several of them.

Time will tell…

Freeze

www

October 16th, 2012
10:21 am

love the clip, btw. that line is always funny.

Tommy "Livin' the Dream" Dills

October 16th, 2012
10:21 am

Freddie Blassie, please pass me what your smoking…I will have two of them. Second of all, pound sand! :)

Tommy "Lemon Drop" Eaves

October 16th, 2012
10:23 am

I will give up Deer Hunting if Tech goes 6 & 0 the rest of the season! I have no clue as to why Johnson is spending time on the defensive side of the ball….he needs to be figuring out his semblence of an offense…it’s putrid!

Bubba "The Monster" Barfield

October 16th, 2012
10:25 am

CPJ, how about playin’ Vad Lee. This season is a wash…why not plan for the future??? If you need help installing some plays, give me a ring. You have my number.

Freezekalo72

October 16th, 2012
10:29 am

@Red Dog How can you say that. The season is only 6 games in.

UGAg has the same shot of going 5-7 and missing a bowl at this point just as much as Tech does for making a bowl game. I DO understand that UGAg is a better team right now then Tech is. However, with both teams only playing 6 games, there is TOO much season left before we can see reality… because right now it is just assumptions…

Freeze

Delbert D.

October 16th, 2012
10:29 am

Just remember the name Billick. ‘Nuff Said

DeDe Westbrooks Y'all

October 16th, 2012
10:33 am

I’m gonna go HAM on Y’all! My babies will run the table the rest of the year…then it’s off to Golden Corral to celebrate HAM style!

FL Jacket

October 16th, 2012
10:34 am

Ken, just when I thought you couldn’t possibly do anything dumber…you go and do something like this…

As Whitney Houston once said...

October 16th, 2012
10:35 am

…Oh, he l l to the no…

Red dog

October 16th, 2012
10:35 am

Freeze, I think your brain is frozen. You obviously don’t have a clue about football.

Hey, Bubba...

October 16th, 2012
10:37 am

…regarding Vad, what part of “He’s doing,” coach Paul Johnson said of Lee’s practice work, a less-than-glowing endorsement. “He’s not beating anybody out, if that’s what you’re asking.” do you not understand?

Freezekalo72

October 16th, 2012
10:40 am

@Lemon Drop

Tech is 26th in the country scoring 37+ points a game, on average. There is 94 other teams in the country who would like to have that position than there they are currently.

It’s funny because to be in the top tier in offense scored, we shouldn’t be 2-4. But it is what it is.

What a stat like that, it only proves that the Tech D is what is truly putrid. As opposed, Tech’s D is ranked 85th and giving up 30+ points per game. That spectrum is too close and you will loose tight games. Games in general when your stats are that close. One play could change the entire outcome of the game.

Freezekalo72

October 16th, 2012
10:40 am

@Lemon Drop

Tech is 26th in the country scoring 37+ points a game, on average. There is 94 other teams in the country who would like to have that position than there they are currently.

It’s funny because to be in the top tier in offense scored, we shouldn’t be 2-4. But it is what it is.

What a stat like that, it only proves that the Tech D is what is truly putrid. As opposed, Tech’s D is ranked 85th and giving up 30+ points per game. That spectrum is too close and you will loose tight games. Games in general when your stats are that close. One play could change the entire outcome of the game.

Freeze

Uh, Delbert...

October 16th, 2012
10:40 am

…Brian Billick ain’t levaing Fox Sports for Tech, why would he? Plus, he is almost 59 years old and DRad ain’t making that mistake again, hiring AARP guys…

Freezekalo72

October 16th, 2012
10:45 am

@Red Dog

Please explain??!??

I KNOW that you are mistaken.

What I do know is that you Tech is 2-4. To say that Tech will go 2-10 or 8-4 is all an assumption right now. … (How is my brain froze with that?)

Again, as I said, there is too many games to play right now before we start saying that teams are through or not.

Freeze (Not Freezing)

GTBob

October 16th, 2012
11:23 am

Winning the Coastal? I would like to just win a game at this point.

The New ACC

October 16th, 2012
11:25 am

In the middle of the season there is a “chance” for almost anything to happen. Is it realistic? Doubtful.

It can be fun to discuss, but that is all.

Go Tech!!! Beat ugag!!!

5150 UOAD

October 16th, 2012
11:33 am

The MATH could work but wouldn’t bet on ii but i will Cheer for it to happen.

billyBobjacket

October 16th, 2012
11:47 am

It says a lot about the current state of the ACC in football that a team as bad as the 2012 version of the Yellow Jackets is favored in all of our remaining conference games!

JC

October 16th, 2012
11:48 am

An article ranked all the 124 teams and had GT at 82. Below Western Michigan and Troy. If we were to win the division what would that say about the ACC. Time for a new coach. Looks like Gene Cheesedip at Auburn may be available soon.

DS CE'91

October 16th, 2012
11:56 am

Nothing wrong with a little crazy speculation at mid-season. Blogs are kinda like the neighborhood bar that way … you can surmise just about anything, after a beer or two. No one really thinks it even remotely likely…. kinda like UGA beating the Gators in a few weeks.

GO JACKETS!!!!

GTBob

October 16th, 2012
12:05 pm

It says a lot about the current state of the ACC in football that a team as bad as the 2012 version of the Yellow Jackets is favored in all of our remaining conference games!

What would you like to do about it? Leave the ACC? Go Independent? I never understand crying about a conference. Worry about your team.

Paul in NH

October 16th, 2012
12:07 pm

I expect GT to win the ones they are favored in (BC, MD, Duke) and lose the one they are unfavored in (NC). 4-4 in the ACC and needing a win against the Mormons to be bowl eligible.

Paul in NH

October 16th, 2012
12:09 pm

GT is not favored in the remaining conference games. Reading comprehension obviously isn’t billyBobjackt’s strong point.

CT_Jacket

October 16th, 2012
12:24 pm

It would help if Miami won out and then, before the season ended, the NCAA finally hit them with the sanctions that they earned.

GT Fan

October 16th, 2012
12:52 pm

Here’s GT’s revised goals for the 2012 season:

1. Get Bowl Eligible
2. Guarantee winning season …. get to 7 Wins
3. Beat UGA
4. Win the bowl game

GT Fan

October 16th, 2012
12:54 pm

2. Get to at least 7 wins. At this point 8 or 9 is only a bonus. Especially considering that 9 Ws means the Jackets win out (including their bowl game)

Jim 70

October 16th, 2012
1:00 pm

Offense isn’t bad, but defense isn’t good, especially fourth quarter.

As far as tw keeping the ball inside the 2 yard line, must be cpj worried he could fumble on the handoff or pitch.

1 4 GT

October 16th, 2012
1:12 pm

I like the last scenario that GT Fan put forth best of all the others. If GT were to run off 7 straight wins though not really very realistic but doable, what a hard row to hoe CPJ would face next season. I imagine he would deal with it though. GOOOOO JACKETS THWGeorgie

1 4 GT

October 16th, 2012
1:14 pm

5150 must be sick. He has been awfully quiet lately. How’s your Dad 5150?

GT Fan

October 16th, 2012
1:18 pm

To answer your question, KS ……..

Yeah, when pigs fly. Haha

GT Fan

October 16th, 2012
1:26 pm

I’d rather have a W over UGA than win the Coastal.

Think about this … what if GT finished 8-4, won the Coastal, then somehow won the ACC Championship?

The ACC would get laughed at, again, with a 4-loss conf champ in a BCS bowl. At this point, the ACC needs both FSU and Clemson to win-out, INCLUDING their bowl games. FSU would finish 13-1, and Clemson 12-1. Great for the ACC!

And who knows maybe an 11-1 Clemson gets a 2nd ACC team into a BCS bowl? TV loves their offense…..

GTBob

October 16th, 2012
1:45 pm

The ACC would get laughed at, again, with a 4-loss conf champ in a BCS bowl.

You should change your name to ACC Fan. If GT somehow goes 8-4, then I don’t really care who is laughing. I want my team to win. If that hurts the conference then so be it. The conference can burn for all I care.

Smyrna Gold

October 16th, 2012
2:41 pm

Tech will be lucky to go 5 and 7. I’m not sure we can beat BC and Duke. Hell, we can’t beat MTSU.
The program is just plain sick.

OkieDawg

October 16th, 2012
2:46 pm

WOW…just…WOW! Other than that, I’m speechless.

OkieDawg

October 16th, 2012
3:00 pm

Could Jill Stein win the Presidential Election?