Kiper says Dwyer is high-risk — updated at 1:50 p.m. with news about Thomas
ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper said on Tuesday that Georgia Tech Jonathan Dwyer was a high-risk pick in the upcoming NFL draft in April.
Dwyer, who rushed for more 2,700 yards the past two seasons, is one of four Tech underclassmen who are preparing for next week’s combine in Indianapolis.
In a video on ESPN.com, Kiper said he likes Dwyer, but has concerns about his weight (Dwyer was listed at 235 in last year’s media guide). He also questioned his receiving skills, as well as his kick-return ability. He said he will still likely go in the first round.
Interestingly, he said Clemson’s C.J. Spiller has the biggest upside. I would flip Spiller, who is somewhat small to be an every-down back in the NFL, with Dwyer, who likely has a lot of skills that teams haven’t seen yet.
For example, Dwyer’s receiving skills weren’t really needed at Tech because of the nature of the offense, but when he did catch passes he made teams pay, particularly against FSU two years ago and against Iowa in the Orange Bowl. Plus, he was a decent baseball player at Kell High School if memory serves, so he’s got hand-eye coordination.
Going back to Dwyer’s weight, I’m not sure what the concern is, other than teams sometimes fall in love with dimensions rather than production. Dwyer was plenty quick enough to outrun defenses once he got into the secondary. I assume that teams are worried that Dwyer’s weight could increase, which was a concern that some teams had about USC’s Lendale White, for example, a few years ago.
I got to speak to former Tech safety Morgan Burnett during a break from his workouts in Orlando. He said he’s been working on improving his speed and technique and that he’s looking forward to the combine next week. You can read more about Burnett, Dwyer, Demaryius Thomas and Derrick Morgan.
Kiper said he think Burnett could go in the second round, according to colleague D. Orlando Ledbetter, who was on a conference call with Kiper earlier in the day.
In the biggest surprise, Kiper has moved Thomas into the first-round of his most recent mock draft. It’s interesting because he doesn’t have Thomas listed as one of the top five WRs in his position breakdowns, but has him as the second WR taken. On the flip side, The Sporting News’ Matt Hayes says Thomas is one of the most overrated prospects because he said he ran two routes, curl or go, at Tech.
Please check back soon for more details on why Kipers thinks Dwyer is a high-risk pick.
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In other news, A-back Roddy Jones and defensive tackle Logan Walls, both management majors, were named to the ACC’s All-Academic team on Wednesday.
To be eligible, a player must have earned a 3.00GPA for the previous semester and maintained a 3.00 cumulative average during his academic career.
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81 comments Add your comment
BuzzedDriving
February 17th, 2010
3:24 pm
I Dwyer think he will be great. He is tomahawking going to Braves! THWG and Organic Chemistry Rocks!
JW
February 17th, 2010
3:26 pm
Flagboy
As a huge GT, I appreciate your civil commentary on JD.
I will agree with you that he did ‘mail it in’ in the orange bowl (especially in the first half) He consistently allowed Adrian Clayborn (who is a beast) to shed the block and disrupt the option. I understand JD is giving up 50lbs to Clayborn, but had JD just added a little more effort, he could’ve helped keep Clayborn out of CPJ’s backfield.
Now, I disagree with you on this fact. There is not another RB coming out this year that has JD’s size and breakaway speed. That is what the NFL needs. Spiller is a special player, but so is/was Reggie Bush. Granted NOLA just won the big one, but it was not due to R. Bush and his running attack. (And please don’t make the argument that Spiller is better than the National Title having Heisman winning R. Bush)
BuzzedDriving
February 17th, 2010
3:27 pm
Jalalabad loves CPJ
Cuttysark
February 17th, 2010
3:29 pm
I remember another running back who didn’t catch many balls in college and went on to have a very successful career in the NFL; Earl Campbell from the University of Texas. Now Mel Kiper, Jr. wasn’t around when Earl went into the league, but he did just fine and never did return kickoffs or catch the ball. How did we ever survive without Mel’s insightful analysis?
For more Georgia Tech Football articles go to http://isportsweb.com. Go Jackets!
NoCoach Blewitt
February 17th, 2010
3:34 pm
BayBay is a beast …..I think he is definetely a first round quality WR. As far as Burnett goes, I think he needed one more year at the Flats but can understand why he is leaving, especially with his fellow JRs heading out. I am just looking forward to watching them on Sunday’s and watching their replacements progress on Saturdays.
Go Jackets
Dr. Dave
February 17th, 2010
3:52 pm
Dwyer said on the radio the other day that he had lost 20 lbs getting ready for the draft. He is still a first rounder.
nickj0321
February 17th, 2010
3:58 pm
dan – to say that dwyer doesn’t have a 2nd gear lets me know you haven’t actually watched him play much…
BigBch99 – Dwyer was never in the 190-200lb range…he came to college in the 215 – 220lb range
nickj0321
February 17th, 2010
3:59 pm
doug – whether cj spiller missed games or not i do not know but i do know that everytime i watched him play it seemed the commentators were talking about his multiple injuries
Danny O
February 17th, 2010
4:12 pm
Falcons need to trade for CB Antonio Cromartie who is on the trading block. Draft LB Sean Weatherspoon in the First and DE Greg Hardy in the 3rd !!! Def would look nice!!!
nickj0321
February 17th, 2010
4:14 pm
Danny O – i heard Mort on the radio talking about Cromartie having a lot of red flags and being an under achiever…he also mentioned he is more of a gambler than a cover guy….
living in GA i dont get to see him play often, but if this is true the last thing we need is him
BigTimeTechFan
February 17th, 2010
4:27 pm
Spiller:
4 games over 100 yrs rushing
Dwyer:
7 games over 100 yrs rushing
Dwyer had another 1000 yrd rusher, CJ was feature back
Dwyer took a hit every play, CJ was never lead blocker
CJ nice in open field screen passes, Dwyer had to read plays 5 yrds behind line, NFL if he plays tail back will have 7 yrds.
NFL will have less gaps open for spiller, Dwyer better off initial impact.
If team needs feature back pick JD, If team needs all purpose back, 3rd down play maker pick CJP, both would be nice and actually would be a perfect combo of backs for NFL team.
Dwyer will be Steven Jackson, CJP more like Westbrook, both very good.
Danny O
February 17th, 2010
4:34 pm
Hmmm possibly but anything has to be better than having midgets at our corners. I mean they did ok playing as the nickel backs I think because they were so small the opposing QB couldnt see them with the lineman in the way until it was to late. This team has holes that need being filled and I as a season ticket holder I am hoping that they shell out some money with Vicks contract coming off the books and sign some free agents. Just hate reading other reports of the Falcons not going to spend any money. Dunta Robinson or Leigh Bolden give me a corner !!!
ZamBonE
February 17th, 2010
4:37 pm
Congrats to Roddy and Logan for making this years ACC-All Academic Team. It’s good to see these young athletes making the most of their opportunity by performing at a high level on the field and in the classroom.
Dwyer reminds me a lot of Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers. They both have similar builds, (Dwyer may be a little taller than Stewart) have enough speed to run away from defenders, and plenty of power to break tackles.
Dwyer has shown the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and could return kicks if he was asked to (was our best kick returner his frosh season). His kick return ability shouldn’t hinder his draft stock (how many #1 RBs also return kicks for their team?). Pass protection will be Dwyer’s biggest question mark come draft time. Very inexperienced in this area. It’s going to be scary to see what he can do with a fullback lined up in front of him.
Go Jackets
Wreckbone
February 17th, 2010
5:00 pm
That is too funny that he thinks Spiller has an upside vs Dwyer. Dwyer is much bigger and was not hurt all the time. Sure Apiller “played through it” but he always had a twisted ankle or something. Those injuries will only get worse when the average linebacker goes up by about 50 lbs. And I agree that Spiller does not break tackles, Dwyer does. So, I like Dwyer in the NFL.
Dwyer will be the best RB out of this draft, book it.
BullDawg Rick
February 17th, 2010
5:06 pm
Dwyer will be a good RB in the NFL.. For those dogging him about his weight…. He played FB NOT TB… He has very good speed tween the tackles & will do just fine in the League.. A 2nd rounder, probably…
nickj0321
February 17th, 2010
5:14 pm
Bulldawg Da’Rick – the fb is GTs offense is a TB though…
he has always been heavy but has excelent speed so i don’t see how it can be a problem…i would consider it an asset
superDawg
February 17th, 2010
5:14 pm
Boo Hoo he might go thirty in the twenty fourth.
nickj0321
February 17th, 2010
5:16 pm
superDog – what?
willie
February 17th, 2010
6:11 pm
I am a GT fan and I really like Dwyer alot, but I would have to put Spiller above him because of the explosiveness and big play potential. I realize Dwyer had alot of big plays, but our offense is the reason for alot of those. As a Falcons fan, I would be thrilled with either, but we certainly have to go defense with the 1st pick.
jacket3
February 17th, 2010
6:19 pm
I’d just wish these guys would stay around for one more year at GT….sure gonna miss the personalities, spirit and all around talent.
Big B CH 99
February 17th, 2010
6:26 pm
I just checked & Dwyer was listed his Fresh yr as weighing 197, (I’m also going off of the NCAA video game from that yr) but he may have really been around 210 +, listed height/weight isn’t always accurate. If I remember correctly they listed Tashard as 6′1″ 205, he’s really like 5′10″-5′11″. In the pros he’s listed at 5′11″ 210. The big think that Dwyer’s gonna have to work on is the blocking, I think he’s a little weak in that department. I’m not sure about the receiving, he didn’t get the opportunity in college. Tech hasn’t thrown to their backs (regardless of coach) for yrs, we never threw to Tashard who’s an excellent receiver, been a great 3rd down back for Dallas. Good runner, receiver, & blocker. If Dwyer’s slimming down some, that will help him in the pros, 220-225 instead of 235 + would be perfect, keep the power & gain a little more quickness/agility. The B-Back gets hit so much that they have to be 230+. When your following a lead blocker, U don’t need to be that big.
GT Fan...
February 17th, 2010
6:48 pm
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I SWEAR I read during the 2009 season where Kiper himself had Dwyer as the #1 RB in the NFL draft (if he left college early). I know I read that somewhere, but please correct my mistake if it’s in fact a mistake.
messin with sasquatch
February 17th, 2010
7:04 pm
glad spiller is gone. tired of seeing gt and fsu chasin him. and dabo is overated, as we will see next year.
if maybe some of the people who rate players would actually watch them play. dwyer will certainly play at a higher level with an nfl o-line.
The Dude
February 17th, 2010
7:06 pm
GT Fan, I don’t believe you are wrong. He had J. Best at 1 and Dwyer 2 for much of the early part of the season until Best practiced his swan dive in the endzone…
bp
February 17th, 2010
7:45 pm
Dwyer is a no brainer pick fast big and can take punishment. god i wish he was a falcon.
TheAntiMe
February 17th, 2010
8:27 pm
I like Dwyer just fine but I would take C.J Spiller over Dwyer any day of the week.
The Dude
February 17th, 2010
8:35 pm
You would only take Spiller “any day of the week” if you weren’t looking for an every down back.
BioJacket
February 17th, 2010
8:39 pm
Big B CH 99
Actually, we have thrown to Backs several times this year. Look at the Vanderbilt game as a prime example: 86-YD TD pass to Embry Peebles, one of our A-Backs.
We might not do it often, but our A-Backs do go out for passes several times. Anthony Allen was one of the people passed to in the 4th quarter of the UGA game.
In terms of Dwyer and Spiller, this really is comparing apples to oranges. Spiller was an elusive, shifty back who had explosive speed off the rip. Dwyer was a big bruiser who wasn’t afraid to hit a few guys on his way down. But this is still college ball, folks. Different coaching, conditioning, nutrition, etc. happens in the NFL and Spiller could easily put on the pounds and grow himself to the feature back of whatever team he is on, barring injury. Dwyer is already at that point coming into the draft, and I fail to see how he is a “risk” (risk to whatever team he may be playing, sure… look at how many people he’s pancaked or trucked over the past 3 years).
I don’t see Spiller as being a featured back to start off with, but considering he hasn’t been drafted and “beefed up” for the NFL and how many players change when they get to the NFL, I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach on Spiller, though I do feel Dwyer would be the better pick (but, I am slightly biased.)
cosmos dawg
February 17th, 2010
9:05 pm
Don’t forget that Dwyer was a track star in high school. Once he gets into the open the dude outruns everybody. He will be a star in the NFL. 235 is not that heavy in the pros.
Friend of a Friend
February 18th, 2010
2:52 pm
LISTEN UP ALL YOU HATERS & DOUBTERS! When Dwyer runs a 4.3 @ combine next week remember all that was posted and said. Let me tell you doubter and dont know what youre talking about Dwyer is the total package, he has the speed,size & POWER. Dwyer is a loyal person, when Gailey left Dwyer stayed at Tech, he was committed to the school and the guys he came in with. If Dwyer ran the offense that Gailey had instead of PJ and had a QB that was a real QB and not trying to be a ball hog & superstar Dwyer would & could have won the ACC offense player of the year back to back and brought the heisman to Tech. When questioning his catching ability(6 thrown caught all 6)Florida St.08 was a great game & blocking remember the Wake Forest game overtime QB score who blocked for him? Just to mention 2 and there’s more. All the RB in the draft are good RB, but Dwyer is it the TOTAL PACKAGE and a every down RB. I can hardly wait to see him run behind a good offense line. Doug, you will have to do another article on Dwyer title “Kipler only fueled up the Diesel”
GB NOT A
Real
February 19th, 2010
12:53 pm
The people who post on this blog dont know that Jon Dwyer won the 100m and 200m at the County Meet for Cobb County a few years ago..for anyone who knows about track he ran something like a 10.3 or 10.4 100m and 21.4 200m at 215lbs (The guy also won the 100m in the high school division at the Yellowjacket Invitational in high school)….the kid is a great person and great player so stop hating on him and give him his just due….God Bless