Maxwell Ratings: Ranking all 412 teams (Nov. 4)

Here are the computer Maxwell Ratings through the quarterfinals. Note that the Maxwell Ratings are not designed to determine the state champion or reward teams for the best finish. Rather, they provide ratings to all 412 teams in a way that provides the best mathematical ”explanation” for the more than 2,200 scores of games played this season.

Rank Team Class CL W L T Rating SOS skd rnk
1 Buford AAA 1 13 0 0 97.28 44.96 143
2 Griffin AAAA 1 13 0 0 95.83 40.37 192
3 North Gwinnett AAAAAA 1 12 1 0 94.28 71.93 2
4 Norcross AAAAAA 2 11 2 0 92.57 64.58 26
5 Washington County AAA 2 12 0 0 90.63 39.88 197
6 Collins Hill AAAAAA 3 11 2 0 90.49 67.59 14
7 Colquitt County AAAAAA 4 11 2 0 89.15 71.73 3
8 Sandy Creek AAAA 2 11 1 1 88.43 54.04 75
9 Creekside AAAAA 1 13 0 0 86.39 54.27 73
10 Hillgrove AAAAAA 5 11 2 0 86.02 64.82 25
11 Camden County AAAAAA 6 10 2 0 85.60 70.77 6
12 McEachern AAAAAA 7 11 2 0 85.06 66.16 22
13 Carrollton AAAA 3 12 1 0 84.59 53.14 88
14 Benedictine AA 1 13 0 0 83.38 32.50 277
15 Archer AAAAAA 8 11 1 0 82.71 61.79 34
16 Gainesville AAAAA 2 12 1 0 82.39 51.84 96
17 Langston Hughes AAAAAA 9 10 2 0 82.10 60.33 43
18 Lovett AA 2 12 1 0 80.33 56.42 59
19 Mill Creek AAAAAA 10 6 4 0 80.09 66.42 21
20 Kell AAAAA 3 13 0 0 79.79 47.64 122
21 Peachtree Ridge AAAAAA 11 8 4 0 79.58 66.81 19
22 Tucker AAAAA 4 13 0 0 79.45 48.69 111
23 Lowndes AAAAAA 12 9 4 0 79.19 67.26 18
24 North Cobb AAAAAA 13 9 3 0 77.98 61.55 36
25 Lovejoy AAAAAA 14 10 2 0 77.98 59.23 48
26 Marietta AAAAAA 15 8 3 0 75.14 60.85 40
27 Valdosta AAAAAA 16 6 5 0 74.00 70.39 7
28 North Paulding AAAAA 5 11 2 0 73.93 53.66 80
29 Dacula AAAAAA 17 8 5 0 73.40 69.20 10
30 Coffee AAAAAA 18 5 5 0 72.73 72.26 1
31 Lamar County AA 3 13 0 0 72.60 33.90 259
32 Alpharetta AAAAAA 19 9 3 0 72.37 60.67 42
33 Marist AAAA 4 11 2 0 72.17 44.80 145
34 Walton AAAAAA 20 6 5 0 72.17 69.85 8
35 Milton AAAAAA 21 8 3 0 71.65 61.75 35
36 Ware County AAAAA 6 11 2 0 71.44 47.08 126
37 Warner Robins AAAAA 7 11 2 0 70.93 53.80 79
38 Lassiter AAAAAA 22 7 4 0 70.80 65.87 23
39 Tift County AAAAAA 23 5 5 0 70.65 69.29 9
40 Monroe Area AAAA 5 11 1 0 70.36 39.10 208
41 South Paulding AAAAA 8 10 2 0 70.20 53.37 84
42 Northside (Warner Robins) AAAAA 9 10 2 0 70.08 53.63 81
43 Thomas County Central AAAAA 10 8 3 0 69.74 57.37 55
44 Calhoun AA 4 11 2 0 69.53 34.20 251
45 Stockbridge AAAA 6 11 2 0 69.33 46.28 132
46 Woodward Academy AAA 3 9 3 0 69.17 52.79 91
47 Callaway AAA 4 12 1 0 68.81 40.89 187
48 Greater Atlanta Christian AA 5 10 2 0 68.37 35.37 242
49 Brookwood AAAAAA 24 6 6 0 68.11 68.61 13
50 Statesboro AAAA 7 10 2 0 67.45 44.39 147
51 Wayne County AAAA 8 11 2 0 67.30 51.50 97
52 Blessed Trinity AAA 5 9 4 0 67.15 56.55 58
53 Grayson AAAAAA 25 4 6 0 66.38 68.76 11
54 St. Pius X AAA 6 9 4 0 66.13 56.35 60
55 Burke County AAAA 9 9 3 0 65.65 47.80 120
56 Etowah AAAAAA 26 7 4 0 65.38 61.25 38
57 Stephenson AAAAA 11 9 3 0 65.13 48.09 117
58 West Forsyth AAAAAA 27 7 4 0 64.38 58.14 53
59 Harris County AAAAA 12 9 3 0 63.95 55.01 66
60 McIntosh AAAAA 13 8 3 0 63.81 53.26 85
61 Brunswick AAAAAA 28 3 7 0 63.45 71.27 4
62 Allatoona AAAAA 14 7 4 0 63.39 53.95 77
63 Brooks County AA 6 12 1 0 63.18 41.40 178
64 Cartersville AAA 7 11 1 0 63.17 29.22 303
65 Mundy’s Mill AAAAA 15 8 5 0 63.14 54.75 69
66 South Gwinnett AAAAAA 29 5 5 0 63.10 63.35 30
67 Harrison AAAAAA 30 5 5 0 62.96 64.09 27
68 Lee County AAAAA 16 10 2 0 62.73 39.20 206
69 East Coweta AAAAAA 31 5 6 0 62.71 67.56 15
70 Whitewater AAAAA 17 7 4 0 62.67 55.00 67
71 East Paulding AAAAA 18 8 4 0 62.66 53.99 76
72 Richmond Hill AAAAA 19 10 2 0 62.52 32.34 279
73 Ringgold AAA 8 11 2 0 61.87 34.12 254
74 Eagle’s Landing Christian A 1 11 0 0 61.76 25.64 331
75 North Hall AAA 9 8 3 0 61.04 45.73 135
76 Newnan AAAAAA 32 6 5 0 60.73 62.12 33
77 Houston County AAAAA 20 7 4 0 60.52 53.55 83
78 Westlake AAAAAA 33 5 6 0 60.33 63.37 29
79 Cherokee AAAAAA 34 5 5 0 60.23 60.84 41
80 Mays AAAAA 21 8 4 0 60.12 48.32 115
81 Parkview AAAAAA 35 3 7 0 60.07 68.76 12
82 Flowery Branch AAAAA 22 7 4 0 60.03 49.81 104
83 Alexander AAAA 10 8 5 0 59.23 53.21 86
84 Lambert AAAAAA 36 6 5 0 59.18 56.33 61
85 Carver (Columbus) AAA 10 11 2 0 59.07 35.78 236
86 Shiloh AAAAAA 37 5 5 0 58.61 58.96 50
87 North Forsyth AAAAAA 38 7 4 0 58.61 53.56 82
88 Dalton AAAA 11 8 3 0 58.57 42.97 163
89 Chestatee AAAA 12 9 3 0 58.03 43.52 156
90 Jefferson AA 7 10 3 0 58.03 33.78 261
91 Veterans AAAA 13 8 4 0 57.94 47.95 119
92 M.L. King AAAAA 23 7 4 0 57.55 47.39 123
93 Laney AA 8 10 3 0 57.42 34.03 256
94 Woodstock AAAAAA 39 3 7 0 57.34 63.50 28
95 Troup AAAA 14 6 5 0 57.29 51.49 98
96 White County AAA 11 9 3 0 57.28 41.92 171
97 Cedar Grove AAA 12 7 5 0 57.06 51.15 99
98 Heard County AA 9 10 2 0 57.06 31.79 286
99 Hart County AAA 13 9 2 0 56.83 37.59 223
100 Eagle’s Landing AAAA 15 8 3 0 56.34 42.27 168
101 New Manchester AAAAA 24 6 4 0 56.25 52.26 95
102 South Forsyth AAAAAA 40 7 3 0 56.02 49.00 110
103 Roswell AAAAAA 41 4 6 0 55.94 59.94 45
104 Clarke Central AAAAA 25 7 4 0 55.93 49.02 109
105 Wheeler AAAAAA 42 3 7 0 55.80 61.49 37
106 Mary Persons AAAA 16 10 2 0 55.31 39.80 200
107 Lakeside (Evans) AAAAA 26 6 5 0 54.71 52.27 94
108 Bowdon AA 10 11 2 0 54.67 32.69 272
109 Westover AAAA 17 9 3 0 54.41 43.52 157
110 Central Gwinnett AAAAAA 43 2 8 0 54.33 66.43 20
111 Westminster AA 11 5 6 0 53.89 57.10 57
112 Newton AAAAAA 44 5 6 0 53.86 60.05 44
113 Arabia Mountain AAAAA 27 7 3 0 53.78 40.52 188
114 Rome AAAAA 28 5 5 0 53.69 52.68 92
115 Lanier AAAA 18 9 3 0 53.65 35.88 235
116 Alcovy AAAAAA 45 7 4 0 53.64 45.17 142
117 Central (Carrollton) AAA 14 10 3 0 53.43 37.48 224
118 Vidalia AA 12 10 2 0 53.01 30.73 294
119 Elbert County AAA 15 8 3 0 52.90 38.95 209
120 Thomasville AA 13 8 4 0 52.55 44.07 152
121 Washington-Wilkes AA 14 11 1 0 52.45 17.47 380
122 Berkmar AAAAAA 46 3 7 0 52.29 61.05 39
123 Northwest Whitfield AAAA 19 9 2 0 52.05 32.14 282
124 Gilmer AAAA 20 9 3 0 52.04 38.39 217
125 Decatur AAA 16 7 3 0 51.81 38.48 215
126 Sequoyah AAAAA 29 8 3 0 51.67 39.86 198
127 Campbell AAAAAA 47 4 6 0 51.29 57.32 56
128 Tri-Cities AAAAAA 48 1 8 1 51.00 63.34 31
129 Creekview AAAAA 30 8 3 0 50.84 39.81 199
130 Douglas County AAAAAA 49 3 7 0 50.81 58.76 52
131 Cairo AAAA 21 7 4 0 50.80 43.12 161
132 Rockdale County AAAAAA 50 6 4 0 50.51 48.20 116
133 Westside (Macon) AAAA 22 7 4 0 50.36 38.92 210
134 Glynn Academy AAAAA 31 6 5 0 50.32 44.23 149
135 South Cobb AAAAAA 51 3 7 0 50.21 63.09 32
136 Villa Rica AAAAA 32 5 5 0 50.09 53.07 89
137 Liberty County AAAA 23 8 3 0 49.82 37.98 220
138 West Hall AAA 17 6 5 0 49.81 43.51 158
139 Carver (Atlanta) AAAA 24 6 4 0 49.67 46.86 129
140 Northgate AAAAA 33 4 6 0 49.61 55.56 62
141 Starr’s Mill AAAAA 34 4 6 0 49.21 52.97 90
142 Riverwood AAAAA 35 7 4 0 49.20 41.41 177
143 Luella AAAAAA 52 5 6 0 49.17 53.19 87
144 North Oconee AAA 18 7 4 0 49.10 35.05 246
145 Evans AAAAA 36 5 5 0 49.06 49.31 107
146 Cedartown AAAA 25 9 2 0 48.84 31.81 285
147 Jones County AAAAA 37 5 5 0 48.75 49.40 106
148 Chattahoochee AAAAAA 53 4 6 0 48.56 54.29 72
149 Bainbridge AAAAA 38 5 6 0 48.07 54.44 71
150 Bleckley County AA 15 9 3 0 47.94 35.26 243
151 Heritage (Conyers) AAAAA 39 6 5 0 47.94 48.68 112
152 Columbia AAAA 26 6 4 0 47.65 42.14 169
153 Mount Pisgah Christian A 2 12 0 0 47.53 22.40 345
154 Union Grove AAAAA 40 6 4 0 47.21 42.30 166
155 Appling County AAA 19 9 3 0 47.13 31.36 288
156 Pierce County AAA 20 10 2 0 47.10 29.15 304
157 Duluth AAAAAA 54 3 7 0 46.36 67.46 16
158 Grady AAAA 27 8 3 0 45.86 35.52 239
159 Fitzgerald AA 16 6 5 1 45.65 44.28 148
160 Northview AAAAA 41 5 5 0 45.64 44.14 151
161 Woodland (Cartersville) AAAAA 42 4 6 0 45.04 53.89 78
162 Irwin County A 3 10 1 1 44.70 25.59 332
163 LaGrange AAAA 28 3 7 0 44.51 54.57 70
164 Banneker AAAA 29 5 4 1 44.49 41.25 181
165 Bryan County AA 17 8 3 0 44.46 31.13 291
166 Jefferson County AAA 21 8 4 0 44.41 38.42 216
167 Centennial AAAAAA 55 1 9 0 44.29 59.37 46
168 Pebblebrook AAAAAA 56 3 7 0 44.16 59.20 49
169 Marion County A 4 11 1 0 43.91 21.39 354
170 Cook AA 18 6 5 0 43.89 40.93 183
171 Calvary Day A 5 10 2 0 43.59 21.68 352
172 Aquinas A 6 12 0 0 43.10 11.29 397
173 Jonesboro AAAA 30 6 4 0 42.83 36.58 233
174 Loganville AAAAA 43 5 5 0 42.79 44.84 144
175 Peach County AAA 22 8 4 0 42.63 33.59 264
176 Drew AAAAA 44 4 6 0 42.59 45.23 140
177 Monroe AAAA 31 6 5 0 41.99 40.34 194
178 Rabun County AA 19 8 3 0 41.80 19.04 370
179 Darlington A 7 9 3 0 41.51 26.40 325
180 Paulding County AAAAA 45 2 8 0 41.20 54.24 74
181 Dawson County AAA 23 5 5 0 41.10 43.12 162
182 Crisp County AAAA 32 6 5 0 40.91 40.91 186
183 Eastside AAAA 33 5 5 0 40.90 42.29 167
184 B.E.S.T. Academy AAA 24 6 5 0 40.90 32.44 278
185 Kendrick AA 20 7 5 0 40.89 35.77 237
186 Charlton County A 8 8 4 0 40.61 31.86 284
187 Thomson AAA 25 3 7 0 40.29 52.28 93
188 Locust Grove AAAA 34 6 5 0 40.23 39.60 202
189 Clinch County A 9 8 4 0 40.17 32.94 269
190 Prince Avenue Christian A 10 10 2 0 40.14 18.99 372
191 Mount Paran Christian A 11 9 3 0 40.01 28.58 309
192 Pickens AAAA 35 6 4 0 39.93 33.77 262
193 Effingham County AAAAA 46 6 5 0 39.81 40.46 190
194 Early County AA 21 5 5 0 39.74 37.89 221
195 Seminole County A 12 11 1 0 39.68 19.57 365
196 Hawkinsville A 13 9 3 0 39.45 28.34 310
197 Mountain View AAAAAA 57 2 8 0 39.38 70.79 5
198 Cedar Shoals AAAAA 47 3 7 0 39.36 47.99 118
199 Chamblee AAAA 36 6 4 0 39.32 35.21 244
200 Stephens County AAAA 37 5 6 0 39.04 41.45 176
201 Shaw AAAA 38 4 6 0 38.50 49.08 108
202 Landmark Christian A 14 8 3 0 38.20 29.60 302
203 Richmond Academy AAAA 39 5 5 0 38.08 38.28 218
204 Miller Grove AAAAA 48 4 6 0 38.04 45.35 138
205 Dooly County A 15 8 4 0 37.95 27.27 321
206 Rutland AAAA 40 6 5 0 37.75 34.96 248
207 Dublin AA 22 7 4 0 37.72 29.00 306
208 Macon County AA 23 6 5 0 37.34 36.89 231
209 Manchester AA 24 7 4 0 37.21 26.75 324
210 East Hall AAA 26 5 5 0 37.19 32.72 271
211 Bremen AA 25 5 5 0 37.19 37.46 225
212 Chapel Hill AAA 27 5 6 0 37.17 39.33 205
213 Pope AAAAA 49 3 7 0 37.02 50.74 102
214 Kennesaw Mountain AAAAAA 58 2 8 0 36.96 59.37 47
215 Towers AAA 28 5 5 0 36.59 38.89 211
216 Baldwin AAAA 41 3 7 0 36.38 44.42 146
217 West Laurens AAAA 42 3 7 0 36.34 43.23 159
218 Dutchtown AAAA 43 4 6 0 36.24 40.93 184
219 Cass AAAA 44 4 6 0 35.93 41.31 179
220 Washington AAAA 45 6 3 0 35.83 21.81 349
221 Holy Innocents A 16 7 5 0 35.68 32.15 281
222 Riverdale AAAA 46 4 6 0 35.64 42.42 165
223 Metter AA 26 7 4 0 35.53 30.91 292
224 Salem AAAAA 50 3 7 0 35.43 44.20 150
225 Johns Creek AAAAAA 59 0 10 0 35.42 58.77 51
226 Glenn Hills AAAA 47 5 5 0 35.42 34.23 250
227 Adairsville AAA 29 7 4 0 35.11 22.61 341
228 Cambridge AAAAA 51 3 7 0 34.98 43.63 154
229 Hiram AAAAA 52 1 9 0 34.96 54.86 68
230 Lithonia AAAA 48 4 6 0 34.50 37.44 226
231 Woodland (Stockbridge) AAAA 49 2 8 0 34.24 55.08 64
232 Americus-Sumter AAAA 50 4 6 0 34.06 37.34 228
233 Model AA 27 7 4 0 33.94 28.19 313
234 Dunwoody AAAAA 53 3 7 0 33.93 46.12 134
235 South Effingham AAAA 51 5 5 0 33.88 33.95 258
236 Dodge County AAA 30 4 7 0 33.84 40.47 189
237 Our Lady of Mercy A 17 5 6 0 33.83 33.98 257
238 Fayette County AAAA 52 1 9 0 33.58 58.05 54
239 Perry AAAA 53 3 7 0 33.48 42.96 164
240 Taylor County AA 28 6 5 0 33.22 29.64 300
241 Johnson County A 18 10 2 0 32.88 14.66 390
242 Northeast AA 29 7 3 0 32.82 19.29 367
243 Upson-Lee AAAA 54 4 6 0 32.79 41.65 175
244 Worth County AAAA 55 3 7 0 32.43 39.39 204
245 Ola AAAAA 54 2 8 0 31.96 48.64 113
246 Bradwell Institute AAAAA 55 4 6 0 31.84 37.36 227
247 McIntosh County Academy AA 30 5 5 0 31.40 31.48 287
248 Pike County AAA 31 5 6 0 31.30 35.00 247
249 Southeast Bulloch AAA 32 7 3 1 31.15 22.28 346
250 Westside (Augusta) AA 31 7 4 0 31.15 21.09 356
251 Morgan County AAA 33 6 4 0 30.84 25.76 330
252 Spencer AA 32 5 5 0 30.64 32.59 276
253 Dade County AA 33 7 4 0 30.63 20.88 359
254 Christian Heritage A 19 8 3 0 30.42 15.70 387
255 Sprayberry AAAAA 56 2 8 0 30.40 47.73 121
256 Pelham AA 34 4 6 0 30.33 35.50 240
257 Commerce A 20 7 4 0 30.29 25.51 333
258 Jackson County AAA 34 4 7 0 30.11 37.22 229
259 Druid Hills AAAAAA 60 4 6 0 29.96 38.56 214
260 Madison County AAAA 56 4 6 0 29.83 38.86 213
261 Lumpkin County AAAA 57 2 8 0 29.74 46.25 133
262 Lakeside (Atlanta) AAAAA 57 2 8 0 29.56 46.87 128
263 Maynard Jackson AAA 35 5 5 0 29.49 28.12 315
264 Lincoln County A 21 7 4 0 29.31 17.90 378
265 Winder-Barrow AAAAA 58 2 8 0 29.00 47.16 125
266 Pace Academy A 22 5 5 0 28.95 25.24 334
267 Hardaway AAAAA 59 2 8 0 28.91 50.47 103
268 Ridgeland AAAA 58 3 7 0 28.80 39.54 203
269 Forsyth Central AAAAA 60 2 8 0 28.78 41.72 172
270 Northside (Columbus) AAAAA 61 2 8 0 28.60 46.96 127
271 Grovetown AAAAA 62 2 8 0 28.50 55.41 63
272 Southwest Dekalb AAAAA 63 2 8 0 28.45 47.19 124
273 Johnson (Savannah) AAA 36 4 7 0 28.00 41.27 180
274 Brookstone A 23 6 5 0 27.73 26.19 328
275 Stone Mountain AAAA 59 4 6 0 27.13 32.86 270
276 Jenkins AAAAA 64 3 6 1 27.03 32.62 275
277 Pepperell AA 35 4 7 0 26.73 34.19 252
278 Pacelli A 24 7 4 0 26.57 9.13 402
279 Coosa AA 36 6 4 0 26.11 17.77 379
280 Rockmart AAA 37 3 7 0 26.09 39.77 201
281 Bacon County AA 37 4 6 0 26.02 32.29 280
282 Mitchell County A 25 6 5 0 25.88 21.75 350
283 George Walton Academy A 26 5 5 0 25.85 24.01 338
284 Swainsboro AAA 38 2 8 0 25.46 41.17 182
285 Athens Christian A 27 5 6 0 25.42 28.04 316
286 First Presbyterian A 28 6 5 0 25.42 20.41 360
287 Trion A 29 5 5 0 25.27 24.03 337
288 Morrow AAAAAA 61 1 9 0 25.25 49.41 105
289 Turner County A 30 4 7 0 25.04 30.14 295
290 Forest Park AAAAA 65 2 8 0 24.64 46.74 130
291 Lithia Springs AAAAA 66 0 10 0 24.33 55.02 65
292 Screven County AA 38 5 6 0 24.27 26.13 329
293 Southeast Whitfield AAAA 60 4 6 0 24.26 32.12 283
294 Emanuel County Institute A 31 6 5 0 23.46 19.44 366
295 River Ridge AAAA 61 2 8 0 23.36 39.89 196
296 Berrien AA 39 3 7 0 23.17 33.20 267
297 Osborne AAAAA 67 2 8 0 23.14 40.15 195
298 Columbus AAAA 62 1 9 0 22.47 45.66 136
299 Savannah Christian A 32 5 5 1 22.36 22.28 347
300 Wilcox County A 33 3 7 0 22.14 30.01 297
301 Athens Academy A 34 6 4 0 22.05 18.83 373
302 Putnam County AA 40 3 7 0 22.04 32.67 273
303 Henry County AAA 39 3 8 0 21.78 41.67 173
304 Sonoraville AAA 40 4 7 0 21.40 35.39 241
305 Toombs County AA 41 4 6 0 21.34 26.92 323
306 Meadowcreek AAAAAA 62 1 9 0 21.22 67.43 17
307 Tattnall County AAA 41 4 6 0 21.18 27.09 322
308 Claxton A 35 6 5 0 20.76 19.13 368
309 Union County AA 42 6 5 0 20.62 20.16 361
310 Albany AAAA 63 2 8 0 20.18 36.59 232
311 Wesleyan AA 43 2 9 0 20.13 39.13 207
312 King’s Ridge Christian A 36 4 6 0 20.12 24.06 336
313 Apalachee AAAAA 68 0 10 0 19.79 50.82 101
314 North Clayton AAAA 64 1 9 0 19.48 43.60 155
315 Whitefield Academy A 37 4 6 0 19.38 23.94 339
316 Fellowship Christian A 38 5 5 0 18.70 19.03 371
317 North Murray AAA 42 4 6 0 18.61 21.68 351
318 Spalding AAAA 65 1 9 0 17.95 38.21 219
319 Fannin County AAA 43 2 8 0 17.94 46.50 131
320 Oconee County AAA 44 2 9 0 17.49 37.04 230
321 Monticello AA 44 3 7 0 17.04 28.16 314
322 North Springs AAAAA 69 1 9 0 16.96 45.30 139
323 Wilkinson County A 39 4 7 0 16.86 22.60 342
324 St. Francis A 40 8 2 0 16.64 -4.77 411
325 McNair AAA 45 1 9 0 16.58 48.63 114
326 Telfair County A 41 4 6 0 16.41 21.43 353
327 Brantley County AAA 46 3 7 0 16.14 26.32 326
328 Jackson AAA 47 2 8 0 15.89 33.66 263
329 Savannah Country Day A 42 5 5 0 15.78 15.39 388
330 Walnut Grove AAAA 66 1 9 0 15.37 40.45 191
331 Habersham Central AAAAAA 63 0 10 0 14.46 65.73 24
332 Pinecrest Academy A 43 5 5 0 14.26 14.00 393
333 Haralson County AAA 48 2 8 0 14.19 35.18 245
334 Portal A 44 3 6 1 14.10 21.20 355
335 Jordan AA 45 2 8 0 13.65 34.03 255
336 Walker A 45 4 5 0 13.64 19.13 369
337 Franklin County AAA 49 1 9 0 13.14 37.60 222
338 Douglass AAA 50 1 9 0 13.12 36.38 234
339 Chattooga AA 46 2 8 0 13.08 31.21 290
340 Rabun Gap A 46 6 4 0 12.99 -8.18 412
341 Hephzibah AAAA 67 3 7 0 12.98 27.53 318
342 Redan AAAA 68 1 9 0 12.92 45.18 141
343 Savannah AAA 51 1 9 0 12.55 35.70 238
344 Riverside Military Academy AA 47 5 5 0 12.29 13.99 394
345 Beach AAA 52 1 9 0 12.24 34.92 249
346 East Jackson AAA 53 2 9 0 11.94 30.74 293
347 LaFayette AAAA 69 2 8 0 11.84 32.63 274
348 Johnson (Gainesville) AAAA 70 2 8 0 11.39 31.22 289
349 Butler AAAA 71 1 9 0 11.25 40.92 185
350 Miller County A 47 4 6 0 11.15 18.39 375
351 Harlem AA 48 6 4 0 11.10 7.33 406
352 Howard AAAA 72 2 8 0 10.99 34.13 253
353 Dougherty AAAA 73 0 10 0 10.85 43.81 153
354 Long County AA 49 2 8 0 10.54 28.86 308
355 Mount Zion (Carroll) A 48 4 6 0 10.35 12.61 396
356 Central (Macon) AAA 54 1 9 0 10.20 33.53 265
357 Treutlen A 49 4 6 0 9.12 14.60 391
358 Hancock Central A 50 4 6 0 8.74 14.68 389
359 Groves AAAAA 70 1 9 0 8.22 41.67 174
360 Gordon Lee A 51 3 6 0 8.02 16.18 386
361 Heritage (Ringgold) AAAA 74 1 9 0 7.66 32.96 268
362 Terrell County A 52 5 5 0 7.60 8.39 404
363 Randolph-Clay A 53 5 5 0 7.06 9.67 400
364 Cross Creek AAAA 75 2 8 0 6.94 28.96 307
365 Lanier County A 54 2 8 0 6.69 22.59 343
366 Therrell AAAA 76 1 9 0 6.65 38.86 212
367 Greene County AA 50 3 7 0 6.64 22.21 348
368 Banks County AAA 55 0 10 0 6.22 40.36 193
369 Greenbrier AAAAA 71 0 10 0 6.02 50.93 100
370 Temple AA 51 1 9 0 6.01 30.02 296
371 Jeff Davis AA 52 1 9 0 5.84 29.95 298
372 Schley County A 55 2 8 0 5.67 23.15 340
373 Clarkston AAAAA 72 4 5 1 5.33 9.49 401
374 North Atlanta AAAAA 73 0 10 0 5.12 45.40 137
375 Georgia Military College A 56 4 6 0 4.87 10.07 399
376 Wheeler County A 57 3 7 0 4.67 16.58 383
377 Atkinson County AA 53 1 9 0 4.67 28.26 311
378 Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe AAA 56 3 7 0 3.83 20.94 358
379 Mount Zion (Jonesboro) AAAAA 74 0 10 0 3.51 41.99 170
380 Hapeville Charter AA 54 1 8 1 2.39 33.44 266
381 Chattahoochee County AA 55 2 8 0 1.47 27.49 319
382 Montgomery County A 58 1 9 0 1.46 20.02 362
383 Calhoun County A 59 2 8 0 1.44 17.21 381
384 East Laurens AA 56 1 9 0 1.19 26.25 327
385 Armuchee AA 57 1 9 0 1.08 25.08 335
386 Greenville A 60 1 9 0 -0.22 29.81 299
387 Towns County A 61 4 6 0 -1.49 10.08 398
388 Southwest AAA 57 0 10 0 -1.52 29.15 305
389 Strong Rock Christian A 62 3 7 0 -3.71 16.49 385
390 Oglethorpe County AA 58 1 9 0 -3.94 19.84 364
391 Coahulla Creek AAA 58 2 8 0 -4.69 19.96 363
392 South Atlanta AAAA 77 0 10 0 -5.67 33.80 260
393 Hebron Christian Academy A 63 2 8 0 -5.91 16.51 384
394 Windsor Forest AAAAA 75 0 10 0 -6.85 43.22 160
395 Jenkins County A 64 1 9 0 -7.35 16.96 382
396 Josey AA 59 0 10 0 -8.31 29.64 301
397 Lakeview Academy A 65 2 7 0 -8.59 5.93 407
398 KIPP Atlanta Collegiate A 66 1 2 0 -12.72 12.75 395
399 Mount Vernon Presbyterian A 67 1 9 0 -13.25 27.91 317
400 Twiggs County A 68 2 8 0 -15.36 17.96 377
401 Baconton Charter A 69 2 8 0 -16.28 7.64 405
402 Murray County AA 60 1 9 0 -17.86 20.98 357
403 Gordon Central AAA 59 0 10 0 -19.10 22.45 344
404 Glascock County A 70 1 9 0 -19.12 9.10 403
405 Cross Keys AAA 60 1 9 0 -23.78 3.38 408
406 Central (Talbotton) A 71 0 10 0 -24.26 27.40 320
407 Warren County A 72 0 10 0 -25.29 18.52 374
408 Social Circle AA 61 0 10 0 -26.77 18.27 376
409 Crawford County AA 62 0 10 0 -27.14 28.20 312
410 North Cobb Christian A 73 1 9 0 -31.24 -4.07 410
411 Stewart County A 74 0 10 0 -33.33 14.17 392
412 Providence Christian A 75 0 2 0 -40.55 -0.40 409

22 comments Add your comment

RealisticFan

December 4th, 2013
2:24 pm

@Loren

As an East Paulding fan I have one question. East beat Allatoona head to head and finished up,with the same record. Allatoona lost int the first round to Kell by 14 pts and East lost in the second round to Tucker by 3 pts. Previously East was above Allatoona, just curious as to what would have caused a reversal considering they played the same inner region schedule. Thanks

Loren Maxwell

December 4th, 2013
3:37 pm

@RealisticFan: “East [Paulding] beat Allatoona head to head and finished up,with the same record. Allatoona lost int the first round to Kell by 14 pts and East lost in the second round to Tucker by 3 pts. Previously East was above Allatoona, just curious as to what would have caused a reversal considering they played the same inner region schedule.”

Good question.

Offhand I don’t see a week where East Paulding was rated ahead of Allatoona, but I only went back to the AJC’s November 6 article. That week East Paulding went into an away game against Allatoona as a 10 point underdog but won by 12.

Setting aside that single game for a moment, East Paulding and Allatoona played nine common opponents (all region opponents). Allatoona went 7-2 with an average margin of victory of 24.6 points while East Paulding went 6-3 with an average margin of victory of 10.6 points. Allatoona also had more favorable scores in 6 of the nine common opponents. Both lost to North Paulding and South Paulding by similar scores, but Allatoona routed Rome by 31 while Rome beat East Paulding by 8.

Using this information only, the clear conclusion is that Allatoona is the better tea, maybe by around two touchdowns.

In the playoffs, East Paulding lost to Tucker by 3 while Allatoona lost to Kell by 14, both away games. Tucker and Kell are roughly equal teams, so East Paulding would have the advantage there. However, they also beat Creekview by only one point when maybe they should have won by maybe 10 or so. When taking the Creekview game into account, their playoff performance was basically a wash (maybe a slight nod to East Paulding for a close game with a clearly strong team).

Using the common opponents and the playoff games, still the only conclusion is that Allatoona is clearly the better team.

So back to East Paulding over Allatoona by 12.

Since all the results cannot be mathematically resolved (i.e., Allatoona > Rome > East Paulding > Allatoona), the model works to find the mathematically likely rating between all the teams for all the results in total. To increase East Paulding’s rating more or decrease Allatoona’s more might make their game against each other more likely, but would make the other games less likely to a greater degree.

The end result is that East Paulding rating is significantly increased from what it would be without considering the Allatoona game (East Paulding was a 10 point underdog but now sits roughly a point below Allatoona), but the increase is not enough that mathematically they are shown as the better team.

In this case, East Paulding beating Allatoona is one of the approximately 8% of games that would be considered an upset.

Suwanee 0wns

December 4th, 2013
7:47 pm

Always very interesting. Thank you so much for providing this information, Mr. Maxwell.

Looks like Lovejoy’s string of Division Championships is about to end.

RealisticFan

December 4th, 2013
8:55 pm

@Loren

Thank you for the detail explanation. I had been keeping track via my own spreadsheets and yes Allatoona was rated higher all season. I took the ratings from after the regular season but because East and Allatoona flipped seeds (3 & 4) with the last week results I recorded them wrong.

Everthing makes perfect sense and I agree that East would still be the underdog now. Those intangibles and overall wear and tear a team just don’t show up in the numbers overly well. It could be seen that Allatoona was on a decline and East was playing better near seasons end but it isn’t something easily reflected in scores.

FridayNightLightsFan

December 4th, 2013
11:37 pm

The problem with computers is they don’t know real life factors. IE East losing Webb four plays into the NP game. East giving up 5 turnovers to NP. East winning those games that are compared to Allatoona with Webb out for several games. Starting D players out for other games. This is why I like (really love) the work the computers do but in the log run take then with a grain of salt.

I think East was the best team again in Reg5 at the time of the playoffs. They showed great improvement. If Tucker continues to dominate the playoffs I will feel this way even more since East won that game on the field but not on the score board.

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
9:12 am

@Suwanee 0wns: “Always very interesting. Thank you so much for providing this information”
@ RealisticFan: “Thank you for the detail explanation.”

I enjoy the questions on the blog. It’s nice when people can appreciate the objective look for what it is and are interested in better understanding it. Because I’m not in Georgia anymore and don’t watch many games, there’s plenty of other information that I can’t comment on (i.e., what play should have been run, who has a faster receiver, etc.), but I think I contribute in ways some others can’t or don’t.

@ RealisticFan: “Those intangibles and overall wear and tear a team just don’t show up in the numbers overly well.”
@FridayNightLightsFan: “The problem with computers is they don’t know real life factors. . . . This is why I like (really love) the work the computers do but in the log run take then with a grain of salt. “

Since the ratings only consider the score and the site of each game, there’s plenty of information not captured. Additionally, each game is only a 48 minute sample of what the teams would really do if they could play to infinity. One or two odd bounces could throw everything out (an interception returned for a touchdown is potentially a 14-point swing in less than 10 seconds).

@ RealisticFan: “It could be seen that Allatoona was on a decline and East was playing better near seasons end but it isn’t something easily reflected in scores.”

A team’s “momentum” is factored in that more recent games are weighed more heavily, but it’s a balance between reflecting what has happened on the field and projecting what will happen in the next game. Team’s that gained or loss strength during the season are the most challenging.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
9:21 am

@Loren

Again much appreciated. The East example is interesting. There are many teams that have “that one player” that if he goes down have a big effect on the overall success as they move through a season. I think that the overall depth of a program as well as coaching can go a long way to mitigating that void. Those around hear, it’s known that East declining enrollment caused by North opening has an impact on depth. My question is…..does enrollment have any beating at all on your ratings?

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
9:45 am

@RealisticFan: “does enrollment have any beating at all on your ratings?”

In general, the classification or enrollment has no impact on the ratings.

The very specific exception is when a new team is fielded. Since there is nothing to base an initial rating on, the system assumes a new team has the same rating of a hypothetical team that would win 10% of its games if it played all the teams in its classification in an infinite round robin tournament. That way a new team in Class AAAAAA would have a higher rating than a new team in Class A, which intuitively seems correct to me.

The 10% is arbitrary but approximates the historical performance of most new programs, although there are certainly many exceptions that can be quickly found. However, since the initial rating is based on an arbitrary number, it is programmed to drop out of consideration much faster than normal once the season starts.

FridatNightLightsFan

December 5th, 2013
10:24 am

@Loren, Can’t say enough. I enjoy your work. THANK YOU.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
10:30 am

@FNL

I’ve tried to,post a reply 5 times now. Keep,checking back….I will chunk it I to pieces.

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
10:33 am

@FridatNightLightsFan: “@Loren, Can’t say enough. I enjoy your work. THANK YOU.”

Thanks, I appreciate it!

FridatNightLightsFan

December 5th, 2013
11:02 am

@RealisticFan – are you going to any games this weekend? I was thinking about the McE game. (If its not raining).

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
1:20 pm

@FNL, not this Friday but I will be at the dome next week for the final. I plan to sit on the Creekside side :) . They were the best I’ve seen, and I have to believe they will beat Kell.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
1:47 pm

@FNL

Computer Polls

Using the NCAA as an example. To me the great thing about the computers is that they eliminate subjectivity except the subjectivity of what factors like point differential, strength of schedule, home field, etc. The NCAA averages six different computer polls to ensure no one or two minor differences in which factors are used can unduly influence the overall ratings. I love that about them. The problem to me is that those polls which the least subjective only account for one third of the overall BCS rankings. Conversely, two primarily subjective human polls combine for the other two thirds. Human polls depend on individuals doing three things:

First; listen to and reading news medi as well as take in other peoples thoughts, and other people’s impressions,

Second; looking at the same data used as input by the computers

Lastly; personal observation, via in person, tv or tape. The last should be the most valuable because a lot of those intangibles can be observed.

The problem is that very few of those humans voting can actually observe more than a handful of games in a single week.

For me, the NCAA overly emphasizes the human polls. The computers eliminate bias and most subjectivity and should account for half if not two thirds of the final rankings. They have it backwards.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
1:48 pm

@FNL

East thoughts

Yes East might have been the best of Reg5 heading into the playoffs, but I personally think that North still held that edge. My logic: After the loss of Webb in game one it took some time and they finally regrouped after the Rome game and played some great football down the stretch, and yes the Tucker game made a great impression. North on the other hand was also gaining momentum. They completely dominated and demoralized Allatoona and I think Allatoona was still in a bit of shock when they played East the next week. North’s first round win was dominating, and East for whatever reason allowed Creekview to creep back I to that game at the end. North’s second round beat down of Stephenson is one of my main reasons for thinking North might have been stronger. The other reason was what I saw in Creekside. They were the best team I’ve seen play in the past 8 years bar none. They truly have it all….multiple attack offense, strong defense, athletes, speed, great coaching, humbleness and the intangible emotional factor of pulling together in honor of their fallen teammate.

In all honesty when Webb went down in that first game against North(I think East wins that game if he remains health) several things happened. Firstly, the fans got deprived of potentially one of the best games ever between those two. Secondly, the win gave North the confidence that they needed and they used they used it as a springboard for the remainder of the season. Thirdly, It forced East to really look internally and made them pull together. The players and coaches had to find their inner character and in the long run it made them better, which was evident down the stretch. I think that without that initial injury to Webb that East and North both would not have been as strong of teams as they were when they got to the playoffs. If f they had played at the end of the season I would have been an epic game.

RobFromNorcross

December 5th, 2013
1:49 pm

@RealisticFan == Yes, but they should allow the computers to take into account margin of victory.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
2:10 pm

@Rob,

Do none of the computers take that into account now? I thought they did but maybe they changed that. Personally I agree but it needs to be capped at say 45 or 50 points of diffential to discourage intentionally running the score up and maintiain at least the hint of some sportsmanship.

RobFromNorcross

December 5th, 2013
2:38 pm

The BCS does not allow any of the computer ranking used in their formula to take into account the margin of victory. The score is irrelevant to these rankings. It is nuts.

FridatNightLightsFan

December 5th, 2013
2:46 pm

@RealisticFan, To many what ifs. :) . Love talking football with you. Maybe we can talk more at the Dome.

RealisticFan

December 5th, 2013
3:51 pm

If I can get away early next Friday ill be there for the AAA .game. I’m guessing roughly 5;45 or 6. Look forward to seeing you.

CoffeeC100

December 6th, 2013
12:02 am

Thank you for following up with your work right through years end. Though I find it of interest early in the season, from mid-season on I look forward to your work above any other on this site. For obvious reasons.

Loren Maxwell

December 6th, 2013
5:25 am

@CoffeeC100: “Thank you for following up with your work right through years end. Though I find it of interest early in the season, from mid-season on I look forward to your work above any other on this site.”

Thank you very much, CoffeeC100. That’s a great compliment!