Maxwell Ratings: Odds of winning state title for 28 teams still playing

BY LOREN MAXWELL

The Maxwell ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1,000,000 times for each of the classifications.  Each team is shown with their rating, their class ranking, the strength of their remaining draw, their average depth advanced to, and their number of times winning the state championship out of the 1,000,000 simulations.  Home advantage is factored into the next round of the playoffs with future rounds simulated at neutral sites.
Each region is also presented as well as the most common championship matchup.
AAAAAA
- North Gwinnett finally takes over as the favorite in AAAAAA, winning the title in nearly four out of every ten simulations.  However the field is still relatively open, with each of the four remaining teams having better than a 10% chance to carry home the trophy.
- Even with the loss of Collins Hill, there is still a 42.3% chance of an all-Region 7 championship game and a 71.9% chance Region 7 will boast the eventual winner.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
North Gwinnett –Norcross, 423,114 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
North Gwinnett 1 94.28 88.28 4.09 398,526
Norcross 2 92.57 90.3 3.93 320,755
Colquitt County 4 89.15 92.01 3.56 172,960
McEachern 7 85.06 92.91 3.41 107,759
Region Wins
7 – AAAAAA 719,281
1 – AAAAAA 172,960
4 – AAAAAA 107,759
AAAAA
- Creekside has flipped with Gainesville again to get back on top on both the AAAAA ratings and the playoff simulation, however all the teams left are within a touchdown of each other and each has better than six to one odds of winning the title.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Gainesville – Creekside, 373,267 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Creekside 1 86.39 80.42 4.11 429,932
Gainesville 2 82.39 81.54 3.79 247,675
Tucker 4 79.45 82.95 3.63 173,811
Kell 3 79.79 83.72 3.47 148,582
Region Wins
4 – AAAAA 429,932
8 – AAAAA 247,675
6 – AAAAA 173,811
7 – AAAAA 148,582
AAAA
- Eliminating Sandy Creek propelled Griffin to the top of the AAAAA ratings and playoff simulation.  The Bears now have a 75.4% chance of winning the title while Carrollton has a 20.8% chance.  They have a 71.9% chance of playing each other for it.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Griffin – Carrollton, 719,478 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Griffin 1 95.83 74.43 4.71 754,425
Carrollton 3 84.59 81.95 3.96 208,130
Marist 4 72.17 86.05 3.27 27,265
Wayne County 8 67.3 88.7 3.06 10,180
Region Wins
4 – AAAA 754,425
5 – AAAA 208,130
6 – AAAA 27,265
3 – AAAA 10,180
AAA
- Little change in AAA, where Buford and Washington County continue their stranglehold on the simulation, with a 99.2% chance of one or the other winning the championship.  There is a 90.5% chance they will face each other in the title game.
- If Buford were to replace McEachern in the AAAAAA bracket, they would have a 38.8% chance of winning the championship.  If they were to replace Kell the AAAAA bracket, they would have a 60.7% chance of winning the championship.  If they were to replace Wayne County in the AAAA bracket, they would have a 41.6% chance to win the championship.
- For the fourth week in a row, AAA has the team with the lowest playoff odds of any GHSA team in any classification.  In 1,000,000 simulations, Ringgold won the simulation championship just 2,086 times.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Buford – Washington County, 904,641 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Buford 1 97.28 79.03 4.59 641,930
Washington County 2 90.63 75.74 4.3 349,610
Callaway 4 68.81 93.26 3.06 6,374
Ringgold 8 61.87 93.27 3.05 2,086
Region Wins
7 – AAA 641,930
3 – AAA 349,610
4 – AAA 6,374
5 – AAA 2,086
AA
- Although Lovett’s rating dipped slightly from their close game with Laney, Benedictine’s routing of Calhoun boosted them into the top spot in both the ratings and the playoff simulation.  Benedictine enjoys a 44.9% chance of winning the title with Lovett close behind at 42.7%.  There is a 62.4% chance they will play each other in the championship game.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Benedictine – Lovett, 624,359 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Benedictine 1 83.38 75.27 4.17 448,556
Lovett 2 80.33 71.98 4.29 426,708
Lamar County 3 72.6 80.66 3.38 102,187
Brooks County 6 63.18 80.94 3.16 22,549
Region Wins
2 – AA 448,556
6 – AA 426,708
4 – AA 102,187
1 – AA 22,549
A-Public
- The Class A Public bracket had the most turbulence this past week with Charlton County’s shocking route of Seminole County and Hawkinsville’s upending of Clinch County.
- Although Irwin County edges out Marion County in the simulation, each of the remaining teams are within 6 points of each other and all have at least a 15% chance of winning the title.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Irwin County – Marion County, 397,539 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Irwin County 3 44.7 41.45 2.98 350,296
Marion County 4 43.91 41.23 2.96 328,969
Charlton County 8 40.61 43.49 2.55 171,447
Hawkinsville 13 39.45 43.55 2.51 149,288
Region Wins
2 – A 521,743
4 – A 478,257
A-Private
- Virtually no change in the Class A Private bracket where Eagle’s Landing Christian still enjoys a greater than 72.2% chance of winning the title.
- However, Mount Pisgah Christian still holds a 15.6% chance while both Aquinas and Calvary Day have greater than 5% chance.
Most Common Matchup:
Final
Eagle’s Landing Christian – Mount Pisgah Christian, 553,336 times
Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Eagle’s Landing Christian 1 61.76 44.75 3.59 722,350
Mount Pisgah Christian 2 47.53 49.85 2.79 155,710
Aquinas 6 43.1 50.68 2.43 65,518
Calvary Day 5 43.59 53.83 2.18 56,422
Region Wins
5 – A 722,350
6 – A 155,710
7 – A 65,518
3 – A 56,422

48 comments Add your comment

trojansfan

December 4th, 2013
2:37 pm

your computer needs a checkup! Brooks County will win AA champsonship!

Loren Maxwell

December 4th, 2013
2:57 pm

@trojansfan: “your computer needs a checkup! Brooks County will win AA champsonship!”

Not sure about that — I’m pretty comfortable with its performance so far :-)

Of the 28 remaining teams, 21 were identified as most likely semifinal participants at the start of the playoffs.

Anyway, best of luck to Brooks County!

Tybee Island Dawg

December 4th, 2013
3:32 pm

I give BC a 99% chance of winning the ‘aa’ championship :)

Swamp Lizard

December 4th, 2013
4:34 pm

@ Loren Maxwell …. just want to say thanks for giving us the “numbers”. I look forward to them every week and think the simulations for the playoffs are pretty accurate ( baring upsets … like Clinch / Seminole, etc … ) .

WolfDawg

December 4th, 2013
4:50 pm

Crunch the #’s as you will…

Wolves Win!!!

Bark at the Moon!!

football guy

December 4th, 2013
6:15 pm

Lamar County will beat BC. Way to much speed for a big and slow team. Watch out Lamar BC practices stripping the ball. Thats how they win and know they need turnovers because they are not good enough.

Loren Maxwell

December 4th, 2013
6:50 pm

@Swamp Lizard: “@ Loren Maxwell …. just want to say thanks for giving us the “numbers”. I look forward to them every week and think the simulations for the playoffs are pretty accurate”

I appreciate it, Swamp Lizard. Thanks for the support!

Wayne County

December 4th, 2013
7:22 pm

guess they shouldn’t even suit up now

Calvary Cavs fan

December 4th, 2013
7:32 pm

Interesting article, but I don’t think it will stop any players from getting between the sidelines for 48 mins this weekend. Also, if you’re betting on high school football, you have issues

Calvary Cavs fan

December 4th, 2013
7:32 pm

Interesting article, but I don’t think it will stop any players from getting between the sidelines for 48 mins this weekend. Also, if you’re betting on high school football, you have issues

Ike in Sav'h

December 4th, 2013
7:55 pm

football guy — still chokin’ on that cheese and wine? Will be in Lamar on Friday night with all of our big and slow boys. I’m sure that Lamar fans will be much better sports than your bunch. After all, we’re not good enough. See ya there football guy????

R31768 Pack

December 4th, 2013
8:02 pm

@Loren. — As an IT guy myself, I respect the numbers and appreciate your hard work but I hope your computer has a gwinnett trojan skewing the numbers. LOL!!!

Go HAWGS

Tybee Island Dawg

December 4th, 2013
9:11 pm

hey football guy, that Lamar team with all that speed only beat our ’slow guys’ by 3 last year on a last second field goal. We will be more than ready for them. As far a ’stripping the ball’ you should tell your sorry QB not to throw the ball to the defense as well. You are a sore loser.

BcS2010

December 4th, 2013
9:23 pm

I don’t understand why these maxwell ratings give tucker no love.. Smh we are 13-0 we beat ware,EP,heritage,Mlk,Stephenson,mays by a combined score of 187-92…

WolfDawg

December 4th, 2013
10:20 pm

Tucker Dude….

Get by the Red Elephants & you will hoist the crystal ball & you will have all the love..
The Tigers will own the weak arss 2-AAAAAA too..

Good Luck

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
10:58 pm

@Wolfdawg are you a Buford wolfie or a NP cupcake? I keep forgetting these mascots because they arent that important anyway. It is a dream if you think Tucker can b eat the Red Elephants. No way Hosay!! BOOOM!! TD by D-Wat!!

Does Tucker have anyone in their secondary faster than Gaudlock?? HEEELLLL NO!!! I watch every Tucker game available and now I am SURE that our wideouts will get past their DBs for the long bomb delivery from D-Wat and when we start running our multiple routes, Tucker will be left standing and running aroud confused. The Tucker DBs will be getting past interferences alllll night!!
BOOOM!!! TD Gainesville AGAIN!! The Tigresses are gitting nervous and they are going to be called for holding and pass interference allll night. Someone says speed kills. Well once D-Wat and Byrd show these Tigresses what we really have they are going to be shocked. We aint those two sorry running backs from Ware. We have real players here who are real athletes who will run the Tucker defense of of the field with a BOOOM!!! TD every 5 minutes. Trust me. Also, from what I see Tucker plays the same 12 guys both ways, so how in the hell will they kep up with Gainesville when we run a play every 10 seconds. Gainesville rocks Baby!! and Tucker sucks!

We will demolish youll and then beat the snot out of Creekside who I know will be feeling their grits after beating Kell. The more I think about it, Kell prolly shouldnt even be in the final 4 but if all you have to do is beat Warner Robins (Wusses), Mays (Overrated) and some other no name, then I guess we could say you walked into the final 4.But sad to say, you wont be any competition for Creekside but dont worry we will beat them as bad as they will beat you when we see those tadpoles in the dome next week.

@SuckerTucker, get ready to be the Big Bad Red Elephants next cuppy cake victim. LOSERS!!

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:10 pm

@Kell fans, youj have a vey weak region in region 7. if you had some competition to get you ready like we do then I would give you credit for being here but on Saturday you will be able to say, well we did make it to the final4!

@Creekside fans, enjoy this next win against Kell which will be your last you slimy tadpoles. Gainesville will make quick destruction of Tucker and be waiting for youll.

@Tucker fans, this is not personal, this is business!! you should have bowed out and lose to EP like you really should. YOU DONT BELONG HERE! Just like Kell, but at least Kell didnt scrape by to get here. They at least beat up on some has-beens. You on the other hand from what i saw in that EP game got your arse whupped!! Royally! You shouldnt be here and we are about to show you why on Friday night. I saw the Tucker coach on channel 5 news last night getting interviewed about this beat down he is about to see his team go through. He looked soooooo SCARED! I felt sorry for the fella. See he knows his team cant beat those Nasty Nasty Red Elephants. Someone should have given him a hug. LOL!! Hey Tucker another thing i notice is that you play your safety really high. Ha!! Our WRs will be getting behind them all night. Youll are done!!!

Bye Bye!!

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:13 pm

I’m back! Did ya miss me???

I said it all season. The road to the Dome comes through North Paulding. Unfortunately for us, that road has left The Den and now travels south through Creekside. Creekside will be the breaks off Kell and then they will show Tucker what speed really is. I’m tired of talking man, ya’ll ain’t listenin. That field at the Georgia Dome is what I’m missin’. Chillin’ on a dirt road. . .Laid back, swervin’ like I’m George Jones. . .

Heed my warnin’. Them Noles are here to stay. The Jo-Doh is where they’ll be playing next weekend. Kell – Get your weight up, Basketball and Wrestling has started, and you boy’s will be ready to hit the courts and mats next week. Beleed dat!!!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:16 pm

and you cant stop the slant passes either. When you think you are playing good defense we will shock you with another scheme. We will line up 5 receivers on you and dare you to stop THE MAN, THE LEGEND……………………….Miiiiiisssssteeeeeerrrrrrr DDDDDDDDDDDDD-WAAT, WAT!!

BOOOM!!!! TD, Darn D-Wat did it AGAIN! This dude is sick. Clemson is about to see what a real legend looks like!!

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:18 pm

@Gainesville-Sleeze – Be glad these North Paulding “Wolfies” fell short. Otherwise it could have been Elephant season. Not that myself or ANYONE with a lick of sense expect you to get past Tucker, but just like they squeezed out a win over our brethren to the East! and just like Auburn has that horse shoe completely submerged in the “Gainesville” region of their physique, you too could pull one off! Good luck this weekend! You and those mighty Elephants is going to need every ounce of it you can if you’re looking for a repeat! Beleed DAT!!!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:22 pm

WeAreNorth, Go back to your rock and get back under it! I agree Creekside will beat the breaks ofrf of Kell and I agree they will show Tucker what speed really is, but that is because they will be in the dome against Gainesville where the speed of D-Wat, Gaudlock, Byrd and company will be on display as the Creekside tadpoles spend the entire night trying to catch our speedy QB, RBs and WRs. That is the speed that will be on display and Tucker will not be denied admission if they want to visit the dome as customers to watch real teams play. Now for you, please do like your brethern from South Paulding and DISAPPEAR!! You got manhandled and now you are a Creekside cheer leader. Such a butt kisser!

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:26 pm

@Sleezy Stevie – Them Elephants can’t show that speed when they can’t get off the line. I wish ZERO ill will on ANYONE! I sincerely mean this! You think Buford hit D-WAT and the boys hard, wait till them Noles get a hold of them. They’ll be begging for them Wolves again to pull that spear at of their “TROATS”! Them Creekside boys ain’t playing. They’re one team, one mission. Anyone in their way is just a victim. Beleed DAT!!!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:28 pm

I see you move up to 6A next year. Good riddance!! your current region just got weaker and we both know you are bottom dwellers in Reg-5. Oh and we dont need your good luck. This team is stacked ready and ferocious. Watch how many Tucker players leave the game crying, limping or simply with their grills busted because we will be in their faces ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL NIGHT!

Bye Bye NP Wolfie. Your comments are no longer needed or followed. You have been terminated and will not be allowed the benefit to play on these blogs. God riddance!

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:33 pm

Ohhhhh Stevvvviiieeee Boy! For them not to be followed you sure can’t stop! Region Champs are bottom dwellers? Put that mason jar down son. You done lost your d@mn mind!!! We’ll play wherever they put us. Slant passes? Are you willing to concede 6 pts. the other way? Thank god you’re not the OC, they would never make it out of the region alive. I’m just letting you know what to look forward to. Come Friday night, you’ll be on this side of the fence with me casting out those inebriated retorts just like me, expect I’m stone cold sober. It’s OK man. The view on this side really isn’t that bad! Heck yeah I’m jumping on the Creekside wagon all the way to the Jo-Doh! You’ll see. Just wait, you’ll see.

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:40 pm

just put Creekside in the SE C championship for christs sakes if they are that good. NP, you sir are a fool. Just because you dominated Stephenson who came from a very weak region (they just wont accept it) and Stephenson was not a good team as advertised anyway so you did what most decent teams would do against Stephenson, you jumped on them and embarased them and then you got embarassed by Creekside so now you think because of that Creekside is invincible. Have you seen us play. Gainesville aint no joke either Mister. I cant wait for us to see Creekside next week in the dome. I will have a front seat for the beat down. You Mr North are a joke. BOOOOOOM!!!! TD

Gainesville-Steve

December 4th, 2013
11:42 pm

You must hace drank that bad shine I threw away. You talking like it.
Good sir! unlike you, I have females over

BOOOM!! TD D- Wat

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:45 pm

The only joke SIR is the one I make of you week in and week out. It’s OBVIOUS that you can’t stand it and it’s quite hilarious! Fact of the matter is I CANT get embarrassed by losing to Creekside as I never took the field and I recognize the better team! Creekside isn’t invincible, better than Gainesville? You dang scraight! Have I seen Gainesville play? Every game available to me on the interwebz and that are relevant to this years team. Do I need to see them in person? Nah, they will become a non-factor about 10:30pm on Friday night, again. . . .Beleed DAT!!!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

WeAreNorth!!

December 4th, 2013
11:47 pm

Stevie boy – Be careful with them females buddy. They just made headlines this week with goats showing up in court against one of your brethren. Don’t make them appear again this time against you. Keep tippin’ that bottle up buddy, she’ll be cute in a little while. Just stop before the trial! I’m out!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
7:14 am

@R31768 Pack: “@Loren. — As an IT guy myself, I respect the numbers and appreciate your hard work but I hope your computer has a gwinnett trojan skewing the numbers. LOL!!!”

Thanks for the interest and support, but no, there is no skewing of the numbers in spite of what you might have read in some of the comments :-)

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
7:19 am

@BcS2010: “I don’t understand why these maxwell ratings give tucker no love”

Tucker is in a good position.

They’re ranked #4 within a touchdown of three teams with also with impressive resumes. If they win this weekend they could certainly hop to #1.

yo

December 5th, 2013
7:59 am

Wondering if the computers predicted Saban wanting another second on the clock? :-)

podivad

December 5th, 2013
8:10 am

Enough of talks and numbers. It is time for those boys to meet on the field of honor and settle the unanswered questions.

@ATL

December 5th, 2013
8:50 am

Didnt Gainesville lose to a AAA school?

Kell is 7-2 vs AAAAAA over the last 3 yrs they can play with anyone, yes region 7 is an absolute joke but dont get it twisted Kell is deserving of their spot in the final 4. How quickly you forget Gainesville was down to Kell last yr in the playoffs and I know Gainesville won and Gainesville has a very good player but to boast as if the team is unstoppable…well I question just how closely you pay attention to the parody in sports. Good luck to Gainesville and Tucker both imo itll be the best game to see, but to Steve you should learn to be humble and win with class.

BcS2010

December 5th, 2013
9:40 am

Tucker is byfar the best team Gainsville will have played the only team u can argue is Buford and Buford beat Gainsville 38-14. Gainsville played or game all year and that was against flowery branch and they got bumped out the 1st round of the playoffs by Stephenson. Gainsville has had the easiest play draw. They havnt played a team in the playoffs that was ranked in the top 10 and y’all looked bad against ml king. Gainsville is 12-1 with the loss showing that a team that’s good will beat them. Gainsville is not all that this year. If they was in a better region or had a tougher playoff draw it would show. You talk about your offense but only put up 14 against Buford and 28 on Mlk and we all now Mlk isn’t the normal Mlk this year. Once Gainsville gets hit by this tucker defense and our rbs break for long TD runs on the sorry Gainsville defense then it’s gonna b a long night!!

And east paulding fans please stop!!!! Yes y’all outplayed tucker but y’all still lost the game! Y’all played tucker the best any team has all year! Y’all get props but stop!!!! That was the 2nd round this is the final 4!

Gainesville-Steve

December 5th, 2013
10:31 am

Ha ha, @BSCwhatever go find WeAreNorth and you two cuddle and keep one another warm. Get off of these blogs. Did you dringk some of his juice too because you are talking nonsense and dreams about Tucker. Gainesville is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out of Tucker’s league. Tucker has never seen a half-decent passing QB that they could stop. MLK killed their DBs, EP killed their DBs, I watched the Arabia game and he killed their DBs and just saw the Ware game. If Ware stayed with the pass, they would have scored for sure but those Ware coaches arent to smart. Gainesville coaches will make the Tucker coaches look like a bunch of Uncle Jeds who just walked in off the street. I think the SP coach probably is thinking about quitting after the smacking his boys took on that dfield. Our defense beat them up and down like they stole corn from our fields and we will do the same to those OVERRATED Tigresses.

BOOOM!!!!! TD by D-Wat again. You watching Creekside? You are NEXT!!!

Gainesville-Steve

December 5th, 2013
10:32 am

and since they cant stop a half decent QB they will get DESTROYED and DEMOLISHED by Mister D. Watcon!!!! Now thta is the TRUTH Ruth!

@ATL

December 5th, 2013
10:59 am

AJ Johnson >>>>>>> Deshaun Watson

WeAreNorth!!

December 5th, 2013
11:28 am

Sleezy – Stop! Just stop for a second and re-read some of your written talent, or the lack there of. You make zero sense. To say another team like Tucker is out of your league is laughable at best. Gainesville has a great program, a few great players, and great coaches. Are you beatable? September 6th, 2013 proved you are most certainly beatable. Is Tucker capable of hanging with Buford? Arguably the top four in AAAAA should be able to, and definitely arguably better than your 5 star QB was able to do. How much offense did those mighty elephants produce inside of the red zone on that faithful night? That’s right bruh! Keep on sippin’. I hope you put those goats to bed at a decent time last night. You don’t want them turning on you. That would be ba-a-a-aa-a-ad!!!!

#WeAreFamily #WeAreNorth #DEUCES

Many Wolves, One PACK!

UncleIndian

December 5th, 2013
5:07 pm

@Loren Maxwell I appreciate your computer dismissing McEachern again because they have proven it flawed each round! GO MCEACHERN INDIANS!!!!!

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
5:31 pm

@UncleIndian: “@Loren Maxwell I appreciate your computer dismissing McEachern again because they have proven it flawed each round! GO MCEACHERN INDIANS!!!!!”

Hey, the rating projected they’d beat Newton in the first round!

But you’re right, McEachern has done great job in the playoffs. They’ve jumped over Hughes in the ratings and if they win another this weekend against North Gwinnett I expect they’ll see another significant bump.

Best of luck!

UncleIndian

December 5th, 2013
6:35 pm

@Loren Maxwell I know you’re ratings are computer generated, but seeing McEachern still under Collins Hill (we beat on the road!!) and Hillgrove (we lost to with 6 starters suspended and starting QB going down on the road , and they lost and are out!!!), seems flawed also. But my boys will continue being overlooked and answer on the field!!! Thanks for taking time to respond and what you do!! GO MCEACHERN INDIANS!!!

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
7:07 pm

@UncleIndian: “McEachern still under Collins Hill (we beat on the road!!) and Hillgrove (we lost to with 6 starters suspended and starting QB going down on the road , and they lost and are out!!!), seems flawed also.”

Now UncleIndian, this reads like McEachern should be ranked ahead of Collins Hill because they beat them but at the same time should be ranked ahead of Hillgrove because they shouldn’t have lost to them . . .

UncleIndian

December 5th, 2013
7:13 pm

@Loren Maxwell ok, maybe a little biased with Hillgove :-) , we lost game, but missing players played a HUGE part in that game. Now what about Collins Hill then?

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
7:52 pm

@UncleIndian: “Now what about Collins Hill then?”

McEachern is in the same place relative to Collins Hill that North Cobb is to McEachern, in spite of North Cobb’s win over McEachern back in October. However, mathematically it can demonstrated that North Cobb win was an upset as was McEachern’s win over Collins Hill.

This isn’t meant to discount McEachern’s great win, and their rating has improved about five points over the last two weeks to reflect their performance in the playoffs, but based on the season as a whole if their rating were further increased to better reflect the result of that single game against Collins Hill then it would make their other games less likely to a greater degree.

More data will be available after Friday’s game, so the ratings will adjust again. In the end McEachern could well end up the best team, but their losses to North Cobb and Hillgrove (even with the mitigating circumstances) certainly hurt them overall.

UncleIndian

December 5th, 2013
8:16 pm

@Loren Maxwell thanks for breaking it down, good info!!!

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
8:29 pm

@UncleIndian: “thanks for breaking it down, good info!!!”

No problem. Again, best of luck!

RobFromNorcross

December 7th, 2013
1:13 am

@LOREN: Update

Region 7-AAAAAA 1,000,000 wins
North Gwinnett 520,000 wins
Norcross 480,000 wins

Loren Maxwell

December 8th, 2013
1:19 am

@RobFromNorcross:

Very close! North Gwinnett with ~527, 000 wins and Norcross with ~473, 000 wins.

Of course you hit it on the nose for Region 7-AAAAAA :-)