List/Trivia/Quote: Power rankings for the new regions

LIST

These are the rankings of the 2014 regions by the computer Maxwell Ratings. The number to the right of the regions represents the rating that a team would need to win 80 percent of the time in infinite round-robins within that region. (Notice in our Reclassification spotlight that each team has a rating.) This method rewards regions that are top-heavy in strength and discounts weak teams at the low end.

Class AAAAAA

7 – 94.97

1 – 94.82

4 – 86.71

8 – 84.55

2 – 81.65

5 – 80.1

3 – 74.94

6 – 72.82

Class AAAAA

3 – 75.64

5 – 70.97

8 – 70.94

1 – 69.38

2 – 68.99

4 – 68.01

6 – 64.7

7 – 61.06

Class AAAA

5 – 82.85

8 – 73.1

3 – 72.17

6 – 67.62

4 – 63.24

1 – 61.32

2 – 61.05

7 – 60.98

Class AAA

8 – 62.21

5 – 59.71

3 – 59.35

4 – 58.55

6 – 53.62

2 – 52.21

1 – 48.79

7 – 44.49

Class AA

1 – 65.97

6 – 63.19

4 – 57.07

2 – 57.02

5 – 55.11

3 – 49.2

7 – 42.97

8 – 40.36

Class A

5 – 56.39

2 – 48.69

4 – 45.86

7 – 44.42

3 – 43.48

8 – 42.02

6 – 39.79

1 – 29.49

TRIVIA

Norcross can repeat as the champion in Class AAAAAA despite losing its first game. What was the last Georgia team to lose its first game but still repeat as champion? Hint: It doesn’t require a long memory. (Answer Thursday)

Answer to Tuesday’s question: Lindsay Scott is the former all-state wide receiver who led Wayne County to its previous semifinal appearance, in 1976.

COACH SPEAK

“Attitude is everything.”

- Veterans coach David Bruce

GHSF Daily asked coaches during the offseason if they have a favorite quote, saying or motto. We’ll run a different one each day. Coaches are invited to add to our list.

Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

14 comments Add your comment

RobFromNorcross

December 4th, 2013
8:14 am

Alternative power ranking- to show how hard it is to make it into the playoffs in each AAAAAA region,

Here are the regions ranked in order of how good the region’s #4 team is.
(This is the team you have to beat to make the playoffs)

Region 7 = 80.37 (Mill Creek)
Region 1 = 77.74 (Valdosta)
Region 4 = 75.33 (Marietta)
Region 8 = 72.54 (Dacula)
Region 5 = 67.79 (Etowah)
Region 6 = 60.24 (Chattahoochee)
Region 3 = 58.13 (South Cobb)
Region 2 = 51.96 (Alcovy)

topper

December 4th, 2013
9:44 am

Camden lost their first game in 09 and went on to win the state championship.

FridayNightLightsFan

December 4th, 2013
12:06 pm

Very nice post RobFromNorcross. Coping your idea for AAAAA.

Alternative power ranking- to show how hard it is to make it into the playoffs in each AAAAA region,

Here are the regions ranked in order of how good the region’s #4 team is.
(This is the team you have to beat to make the playoffs)

Region 3 = 64.18 Brunswick
Region 5 = 60.97 Dalton
Region 8 = 56.75 Heritage (Conyers)
Region 1 = 55.86 Bainbridge
Region 4 = 54.60 Northgate
Region 6 = 54.58 Mundy’s Mill
Region 2 = 54.56 Lakeside (Evans)
Region 7 = 48.36 Riverwood

*** Total credit to RobFromNorcross for the idea…..

RobFromNorcross

December 4th, 2013
12:33 pm

Toughest Regions to Make Playoffs (By Classification)

The three columns are:
- Region #
- Name of #4 Team in Region
- #4 Team’s Maxwell Rating (rounded to 0.1)

Class AAAAAA
7 Mill Creek 80.4
1 Valdosta 77.7
4 Marietta 75.3
8 Dacula 72.5
5 Etowah 67.8
6 Chattahoochee 60.2
3 South Cobb 58.1
2 Alcovy 52.0

Class AAAAA
3 Brunswick 64.2
5 Dalton 61.0
8 Heritage 56.8
1 Bainbridge 55.9
4 Northgate 54.6
6 Mundy’s Mill 54.6
2 Lakeside(Evans) 54.6
7 Riverwood 48.4

Class AAAA
5 Woodward Acad. 65.7
8 North Oconee 57.4
1 Monroe 51.7
6 Arabia Mountain 51.4
3 Liberty Co. 47.7
4 Eagle’s Landing 46.9
7 Ridgeland 46.9
2 Perry 44.3

Class AAA
4 Decatur 46.7
5 Adairsville 41.9
8 Morgan Co. 41.0
1 Jenkins 35.1
2 Kendrick 33.3
7 Lumpkin Co. 30.5
3 Westside (Aug.) 26.4
6 North Murray 22.5

Class AA
1 Early Co. 48.6
5 Manchester 39.0
2 Bryan Co. 37.9
4 Macon Co. 34.8
6 Wesleyan 34.1
3 Swainsboro 33.4
7 Coosa 28.6
8 Greene Co. 14.4

Class A
2 Wilcox Co. 39.8
3 Johnson Co. 37.0
7 Wilkinson Co. 35.7
4 Brookstone 35.4
8 Commerce 33.0
6 Christian Heritage 27.8
5 Whitefield Academy 26.5
1 Randolph-Clay 13.0

Patrick

December 4th, 2013
1:46 pm

All this “numbers” stuff reminds me of the sabremetrics debate now going on in pro baseball. It’s not only boring but creates a lot of attention to detail that in the end does not matter too much. The game is still played on the field and there are so many intangibles that cannot be factored in. Those do make a difference. Perhaps all the schools could save a lot of time, gas, other expenses etc. by just playing the games remotely via computer(all sarcasm intended and deserved). I know, I know, don’t give them any ideas as some computer geeks and nerds would love that.

nourstuff

December 4th, 2013
2:03 pm

@Patrick, In the context of the article you are responding to, I find your post boring and lacking in detail, while employing excruciating cliches-really, is the game still being played on a field, there are intangibles to consider too? Your post is a waste of tube space in the entity that is the internet…

RobFromNorcross

December 4th, 2013
2:54 pm

@Patrick ==

The average High School football game lasts about 3 hours
The average team plays lets say 12 games a year including a scrimmage and a playoff game
So, there are about 36 hours a year when they are playing football games…

There are 8760 hours in a year
So, there are 8724 hours left during the year when they aren’t playing a football game

All this numbers and stats stuff is mainly what we have to talk about those other 8724 hours

packerchick

December 4th, 2013
3:12 pm

LOL…@RobFromNorcross..

.”So, there are 8724 hours left during the year when they aren’t playing a football game

All this numbers and stats stuff is mainly what we have to talk about those other 8724 hours”

That says it all!

Suwanee 0wns

December 4th, 2013
4:40 pm

You hit the nail on the head, Rob.

(plants tongue in cheek) With that in mind we should present a petition to GHSA to effectively double the number of hours every week spent playing football. My proposal would be that any team with a school name beginning with the letters A through M must play their game on Thursday night rather than Friday night. If such a team is playing an opponent with a school name beginning with N through Z then the game will be held on the normal Friday night.

This will still have a majority of games played on Friday night, and the most interesting teams Norcross and North Gwinnett would still be on Friday night. However, there would still be plenty of games on Thursday night for the viewing fans. One of them should be moderately interesting.

If this works well, then we could move even more of the games to Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday evenings in the future. Of course, all games involving a school name beginning with the letter N would remain on Friday evening. We could even try spring and winter football for classifications other than AAAAAA – although it would be tougher to find an interesting game.

RobFromNorcross

December 4th, 2013
5:03 pm

jimb

December 4th, 2013
6:01 pm

remember the name Mill Creek, top taem to not make the playoffs, and could have a top ten ranking at the end of the season. They will have the largest offensive line in the state averaging over 290 per person

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
9:28 am

@Patrick: “All this ‘numbers’ stuff reminds me of the sabremetrics debate now going on in pro baseball. It’s not only boring but creates a lot of attention to detail that in the end does not matter too much.”

I’m not sure the professional baseball teams you’re referring to would agree with that statement. If you haven’t read or seen Moneyball, I would recommend it. It explains the success of the Oakland As when they started paying “attention to the detail”. Nearly every professional sports team now has a small army of analysts.

“The game is still played on the field and there are so many intangibles that cannot be factored in. Those do make a difference.”

The ratings are based entirely on the scores and site, so while it’s very true that not everything is captured in the scores, I wouldn’t agree they don’t provide us with any useful information.

“Perhaps all the schools could save a lot of time, gas, other expenses etc. by just playing the games remotely via computer(all sarcasm intended and deserved). I know, I know, don’t give them any ideas as some computer geeks and nerds would love that.”

That’s even less interesting than it sounds.

RobFromNorcross

December 5th, 2013
9:59 am

@Loren == Thanks for giving us something to talk about in “the other 8724 hours”…

And there couldn’t be a scenario where all the games are played remotely, because the computer gets ALL of its information from actual games played… so the actual games are the most important part always.

The reason why I think these ratings are valuable- most of us don’t get to see a lot of teams out of our region, except when we play them. We tend to know our own regions pretty well but at this time of the year we are playing teams that don’t have a lot of common opponents to compare. For example the only common opponent for Norcross and Colquitt is Lowndes. So the computer takes all the data and gives us the common opponent analysis taken to two or three levels deep. Not perfect but better than nothing.

Of course the coaches of the teams ignore this kind of stuff, they are so deep into the actual game films and matchups and tendencies that they don’t need it. they are the masters of the tangible details and the stuff we call the intangibles. But they devote every waking hour to the task of analysis, and some are better at it than others.

Loren Maxwell

December 5th, 2013
10:51 am

I’ve tried to post a respond three times without success, so I’m posting it in smaller chunks.

@RobFromNorcross: “Thanks for giving us something to talk about in ‘the other 8724 hours’…”

My pleasure!

“And there couldn’t be a scenario where all the games are played remotely, because the computer gets ALL of its information from actual games played… so the actual games are the most important part always.”

Exactly. I’ve never understood the “why play the games if someone does an objective analysis of the scores” type of posts.

No one is advocating that.