Maxwell playoff simulations: Creekside now favorite in AAAAA

The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1 million times for each classification. Each team is shown with its rating, class ranking, strength of draw in the tournament, the average depth advanced and number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.

Each region is also presented as well as the most common semifinal and championship matchups.

CLASS AAAAAA

- By any measure, Region 7 dominates the AAAAAA playoff simulation. Region 7 has the top four teams in terms of championship odds, there is an 86.6% chance a team representing Region 7 will win the state championship, and there is even a 16.8% chance of an all-Region-7 final four.

- Region 7 nicely illustrates the impact of tournament draws. Although playoff favorite Norcross is number three in the state (and in Region 7), their easy draw puts them in the championship game 59.9% of the time. However, once there Norcross would likely be a slight underdog to their most common championship opponent in the simulation, Collins Hill, number two in the state (and in Region 7). Meanwhile, Collins Hill enjoys the easiest draw on their side of the bracket and lands in the semifinals 74.6% of time, where they would likely be a slight underdog to their most common Semifinal opponent in the simulation, North Gwinnett, number one in the state (and in Region 7).

- Although Region 7 is the strong favorite, three other teams have over a 1% chance to win it all, including Region 1’s Colquitt County and Camden County. Adding in Lowndes, a team from Region 1 has a 9.4% chance to win the championship. Camden County will likely be North Gwinnett’s biggest obstacle to getting to the Semifinals.

- There is a 52.5% chance Norcross and Lovejoy will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the quarterfinals.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

North Gwinnett – Collins Hill, 468,777 times

Norcross – Peachtree Ridge, 358,483 times

Final

Norcross – Collins Hill, 257,499 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Norcross 3 94.63 79.82 3.66 314,539
Collins Hill 2 95.32 83.35 3.35 265,428
North Gwinnett 1 96.15 86.5 3.08 239,615
Peachtree Ridge 6 84.59 83.18 2.47 46,848
Colquitt County 5 85.24 85.57 2.32 46,619
Camden County 4 87.26 88.44 2.09 43,125
Langston Hughes 7 82.16 87.87 1.87 15,458
Lovejoy 11 78.66 86.62 1.71 8,409
Archer 9 79.84 91.05 1.25 4,553
Lowndes 12 76.55 87.15 1.55 4,374
Hillgrove 10 78.97 90.51 1.39 4,039
North Cobb 14 75.89 87.91 1.41 3,233
McEachern 13 76.38 89.31 1.44 2,632
Alpharetta 16 71.81 90.45 1.12 561
Dacula 22 69.48 88.25 1.23 460
Brookwood 24 65.27 88.52 1.06 107
Region Wins
7-AAAAAA 866,430
1-AAAAAA 94,118
3-AAAAAA 15,458
4-AAAAAA 9,904
2-AAAAAA 8,409
8-AAAAAA 5,120
6-AAAAAA 561

CLASS AAAAA

- Inter-regional play in the first round, not the least of which was Stephenson’s convincing victory over Flowery Branch, impacted the ratings significantly and pulled Gainesville out of AAAAA’s top spot in both the ratings and the playoff simulation. Creekside takes over the top spot as the favorite, winning 31.2% of the time. Creekside also benefits from AAAAA’s easiest remaining draw.

- Although a team representing Region 4 has a 31.4% chance of winning the championship, it is due almost entirely to Creekside. Region 6 and Region 8 each have roughly five to one odds of owning the championship team.

- Ten of the sixteen remaining teams have greater than a 1% chance of winning the championship.

- There is a 7.8% chance Gainesville and Ware County will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Gainesville – Tucker, 286,676 times

Creekside – Kell, 349,469 time

Final

Gainesville – Creekside, 149,235 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Creekside 1 81.73 70.01 3.3 311,844
Gainesville 2 77.71 71.15 2.71 166,183
Tucker 3 76.89 70.18 2.84 157,121
Kell 4 74.98 70.03 2.72 118,690
Northside (Warner Robins) 5 73.31 73.11 2.11 61,778
Warner Robins 7 71.63 72.02 2.19 51,376
North Paulding 6 72 72.46 2.02 46,621
South Paulding 8 69.9 73.78 1.62 27,671
Ware County 10 68.72 74.26 1.61 18,526
Lee County 11 66.42 71.31 1.95 17,795
Stephenson 12 65.97 73.41 1.47 8,595
Richmond Hill 13 63.72 74 1.43 5,431
Harris County 14 63.5 74.56 1.21 3,760
Mundy’s Mill 21 59.28 73.09 1.4 1,802
East Paulding 18 60.33 74.83 1.21 1,667
Mays 22 58.65 74.42 1.21 1,140
Region Wins
4 – AAAAA 313,646
6 – AAAAA 166,856
8 – AAAAA 166,183
7 – AAAAA 118,690
2 – AAAAA 113,154
5 – AAAAA 75,959
3 – AAAAA 23,957
1 – AAAAA 21,555

CLASS AAAA

- Sandy Creek continues strong in the AAAA playoff simulation, winning the championship 56.5% of the time. However, six other teams have a greater than 1% chance to win, led by Sandy Creek’s Region 5 rival, Carrollton, with a 22.3% chance. Together, with Alexander, they combine to give Region 5 a 79.0% chance of boasting the eventual winner.

- Sandy Creek also continues to benefit from the easiest draw in AAAAA.

- There is a 37.3% chance Carrollton will have the opportunity to avenge their regular season loss to Sandy Creek in the championship. However, Sandy Creek has a 67.7% of winning the rematch.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Sandy Creek – Wayne County, 345,599 times

Carrollton – Marist, 298,029 times

Final

Sandy Creek – Carrollton, 373,464 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Sandy Creek 1 89.65 68.26 4.01 565,170
Carrollton 2 82.23 69.95 3.03 222,902
Griffin 3 77.21 72.96 2.16 82,220
Monroe Area 4 74.37 73.23 1.78 49,858
Marist 6 66.87 68.89 2.48 24,113
Burke County 7 65.73 70.54 2.22 16,268
Wayne County 8 65.05 69.44 2.18 15,726
Stockbridge 9 63.65 71.28 1.87 7,913
Statesboro 5 67.09 75.49 1.33 6,745
Veterans 11 58.49 71.08 1.54 2,324
Alexander 12 57.47 70.06 1.7 2,044
Lanier 13 57.46 70.07 1.7 2,037
Chestatee 10 60.02 74.77 1.06 938
Mary Persons 15 56.04 72.96 1.37 895
Westover 16 55.93 73.21 1.35 669
Gilmer 19 50.91 74.13 1.21 178
Region Wins
5 – AAAA 790,116
4 – AAAA 90,133
8 – AAAA 52,833
3 – AAAA 38,739
6 – AAAA 24,113
2 – AAAA 3,219
1 – AAAA 669
7 – AAAA 178

CLASS AAA

-Although Buford has suffered a significant drop in the ratings over the last two weeks, they continue to top AAA, with a 55.3% of winning the championship. Just as last week, their only close competitor is Washington County, who this week shows a 42.0% chance of winning the championship. On average, both advance over four rounds in the playoffs and there is a 77.5% chance they will face each other in the title game.

- Buford and Washington County also continue to have amazingly easy draws in comparison with the rest of the field. Buford’s is nearly a field goal easier than Cedar Grove’s and, shockingly, Washington County’s is more than five points easier than Buford’s.

- If Buford were to replace Brookwood in the AAAAAA bracket, they would have a 17.7% chance of winning the championship. If they were to replace Mays in the AAAAA bracket, they would have a 60.5% chance of winning the championship. If they were to replace Gilmer in the AAAA bracket, they would have a 53.5% chance to win the championship.

- Although Region 6 swept the first round, its four teams combined to win the simulation championship only 1.9% of the time.

- Just as last week, AAA has the team with the lowest playoff odds of any GHSA team in any classification. In 1,000,000 simulations, frequent powerhouse Peach County wins the championship only twice, facing odds of 585,861.22 to 1. They play Washington County next.

- There is a 30.0% chance Buford and St. Pius X will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.

Most Common Matchups:
Semifinals
Washington County – Cedar Grove, 392,836 times
Buford – St. Pius X, 299,516 time
Final
Buford – Washington County, 774,816 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Buford 1 95.17 68.48 4.25 553,029
Washington County 2 91.06 63.2 4.23 419,529
Woodward Academy 3 70.18 79.23 1.19 6,768
Blessed Trinity 4 67.24 72.96 1.78 5,484
St. Pius X 5 66.9 77.92 1.87 4,469
Cartersville 6 66.65 78.04 1.85 4,179
Callaway 7 62.87 74.02 2.15 2,530
Cedar Grove 10 59.42 71.37 2.05 1,898
White County 9 60.13 73.24 1.36 713
Ringgold 13 55.51 73.4 1.67 601
Carver (Columbus) 12 55.75 72.79 1.78 438
Appling County 17 51.37 71.76 1.76 229
Central (Carrollton) 20 48.81 72.4 1.57 95
Pierce County 19 48.82 77.53 1.23 26
Jefferson County 21 44.92 75.5 1.26 10
Peach County 23 41.09 75.69 1.01 2
Region Wins
7 – AAA 553,742
3 – AAA 419,539
6 – AAA 18,619
5 – AAA 4,780
4 – AAA 2,625
2 – AAA 440
1 – AAA 255

CLASS AA

- Lovett maintains its status as the heavy favorite in AA, winning the simulation 58.6% of the time. Lovett is not only 7.86 points better than number two Benedictine, but their draw is 8.38 points easier than the second easiest draw, belonging to Washington-Wilkes.

- Lovett and Greater Atlanta Christian combined to give Region 6 a 66.9% chance of winning the champion.

- Region 1 and Region 5 each placed three teams in the second round, but combined they only have a 1.1% chance of winning the championship.

- There is a 1.4% chance Calhoun and Jefferson will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Lovett – Washington-Wilkes, 573,239 times

Benedictine – Lamar County, 393,055 times

Final

Lovett – Benedictine, 292,337 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Lovett 1 82.78 56.53 4.31 586,257
Benedictine 2 74.92 65.76 3.02 143,683
Lamar County 4 72.17 65.79 3.02 110,899
Greater Atlanta Christian 3 73.88 71.12 2.37 82,839
Washington-Wilkes 5 67.22 64.91 2.65 48,951
Brooks County 7 60.17 66.54 2.12 9,084
Calhoun 6 64.93 73.33 1.42 8,031
Jefferson 8 59.56 69.55 1.77 4,738
Vidalia 10 55.75 67.64 1.64 2,236
Heard County 9 56.47 70.3 1.53 1,750
Laney 12 52.25 68.52 1.44 702
Thomasville 13 52.18 70.79 1.17 385
Bowdon 14 49.25 71.25 1.19 243
Bleckley County 15 48.07 69.56 1.27 180
Fitzgerald 18 44.77 73.29 1.05 16
Kendrick 21 38.24 70.08 1.01 6
Region Wins
6 – AA 669,096
2 – AA 145,919
4 – AA 111,079
8 – AA 53,689
1 – AA 9,485
7 – AA 8,031
5 – AA 1,999
3 – AA 702

CLASS A Public

- Although Seminole County leads with a 41.7% of winning the championship, four teams have a better than 10 to 1 odds and 10 of the 16 teams have a greater than 1% chance.

- Regions 1, 2, and 4 hold the top five spots in terms of teams with the greatest chance to win the championship. Overall, those regions hold nine of the top 12 slots and have a 94.3% chance of boosting the winner.

- There is a 0.07% chance Emanuel County Institute and Dooly County will meet in the championship in a rematch of last year’s title game.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Seminole County – Irwin County, 475,411 times

Clinch County – Marion County, 349,185 times

Final

Seminole County – Clinch County, 264,352 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Seminole County 2 49.57 32.23 2.75 417,042
Clinch County 4 43.96 34.19 2.23 213,388
Irwin County 7 42.43 36.11 1.83 137,479
Marion County 12 39.7 35.81 1.66 94,302
Hawkinsville 16 34.79 37.19 1.05 29,488
Johnson County 14 35.29 37.93 1.1 29,243
Dooly County 17 34.6 38.54 0.93 25,201
Charlton County 13 35.64 38.94 0.75 21,276
Lincoln County 20 32 39.19 0.67 12,051
Commerce 18 33.51 39.23 0.58 11,574
Mitchell County 24 27.1 38.71 0.4 2,978
Turner County 27 25.94 40.07 0.28 1,956
Emanuel County Institute 28 25.91 40.27 0.35 1,691
Trion 29 25.85 41.09 0.22 1,512
Claxton 34 23.02 39.43 0.15 773
Wilkinson County 42 16.04 40.62 0.04 46
Region Wins
1 – A 420,020
2 – A 374,099
4 – A 148,991
3 – A 31,707
7 – A 12,097
8 – A 11,574
6 – A 1,512
A-Public

- Although Seminole County leads with a 41.7% of winning the championship, four teams have a better than 10 to 1 odds and 10 of the 16 teams have a greater than 1% chance.

- Regions 1, 2, and 4 hold the top five spots in terms of teams with the greatest chance to win the championship. Overall, those regions hold nine of the top 12 slots and have a 94.3% chance of boosting the winner.

- There is a 0.07% chance Emanuel County Institute and Dooly County will meet in the championship in a rematch of last year’s title game.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Seminole County – Irwin County, 475,411 times

Clinch County – Marion County, 349,185 times

Final

Seminole County – Clinch County, 264,352 times

CLASS A PRIVATE

- Eagle’s Landing Christian dominates the Class A-Private bracket more than any other GHSA team in any other bracket. They are more than 19 points better than number two Mount Pisgah Christian and have the easiest draw, almost four points lighter than Mount Pisgah Christian’s, the second easiest. In the simulation they advanced to the semifinals 91.2% of the time, the finals 84.0% of the time, and won the championship 76.1% of the time.

- If Eagle’s Landing Christian is eliminated, there are seven other teams with a greater than 1% chance of winning the championship. Although Mount Pisgah Christian tops those teams with an 8.4% chance, the following six are all relatively close, all rated within about a field goal of each other and each having between a 1.2% and 3.3% chance of winning.

- There is a 42.4% chance Eagle’s Landing Christian and Prince Avenue Christian will play a rematch of last year’s championship game in the semifinals.

- If the Class A brackets were extended to play one more round to accommodate a championship game between the A-Public and A-Private winner, there would be a 79.2% chance a team representing the private bracket would win the championship. However, the bulk of the private school championship victories would be concentrated in Eagle’s Landing Christian, who would have a 67.7% chance of being the overall Class A champion. Seminole County, the Class A-Public favorite in the simulation, would have an 11.4% chance of winning the title. There would be a 26.7% chance the two would play in the hypothetical Class A combined championship.

Most Common Matchups:

Semifinals

Eagle’s Landing Christian – Calvary Day, 441,528 times

Mount Pisgah Christian – Aquinas, 267,982 times

Final

Eagle’s Landing Christian – Mount Pisgah Christian, 344,318 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Eagle’s Landing Christian 1 66.23 37.66 3.5 761,425
Mount Pisgah Christian 3 46.94 41.48 2 83,606
Calvary Day 6 43.4 43.15 1.44 32,710
Prince Avenue Christian 5 43.41 43.72 1.39 31,448
Landmark Christian 8 42.21 44.97 1.21 25,693
Aquinas 11 40.31 42.44 1.48 23,486
Mount Paran Christian 9 41.05 45.08 1.18 21,359
Darlington 10 40.67 44.13 0.81 12,398
Our Lady of Mercy 15 35.27 47.1 0.57 4,208
Holy Innocents 19 33.4 47.17 0.4 2,053
Christian Heritage 21 31.74 44.03 0.31 814
Brookstone 25 27.03 47.82 0.2 234
Athens Christian 23 27.28 47.4 0.03 176
Savannah Christian 32 24.29 46.45 0.2 149
Pacelli 31 24.45 47.94 0.12 123
First Presbyterian 30 24.9 48.71 0.16 118
Region Wins
5 – A 793,379
6 – A 118,177
3 – A 32,859
8 – A 31,624
7 – A 23,604
4 – A 357

71 comments Add your comment

Loren Maxwell

November 20th, 2013
7:41 pm

@Todd Holcomb:

I might be biased, Todd, but this is great stuff!

(Just trying to beat the naysayers . . . )

:-)

DeeDawg

November 20th, 2013
7:45 pm

Maxwell has proven one thing…dont bet on its predictions!! It predicted Reg 6, 5A would go 1-3 last week. They went 3-1. I predict maxwell will be wrong again this week as well.

Patrick

November 20th, 2013
7:54 pm

I predict Region 1-6A will blow up his semi-finals pickings also. Those computers must be plugged in somewhere in North GA.

WildcatNowRaiderForever

November 20th, 2013
8:39 pm

Only 8409 wins out of a million for Lovejoy? Wait until Sportsnut sees that.

Loren Maxwell

November 20th, 2013
8:50 pm

@WildcatNowRaiderForever: “Only 8409 wins out of a million for Lovejoy? Wait until Sportsnut sees that.”

Why do you say that? I’m sure he’ll appreciate this as an objective assessment of all the remaining teams in the playoffs . . .

Sportsnut

November 20th, 2013
9:13 pm

I saw it before anyone had responded. I also knew my name would be mentioned. This does nothing for me as I am forever optimistic as far as the chances of anything happening. My thoughts have not changed. I give all that are remaining a chance. I think that chance is equally attainable by all. The stats may give you the value of each team as the numbers are crunched but the human factor weigh’s more than all your numbers combined. That is my way.

Purp Nation

November 20th, 2013
9:43 pm

This is just freaking awesome. 16 teams left and we are ranked #19 in AAAA!!!!!! How in the heck did we advance then?!?!?!?! Just freaking awesome.

Sportsnut

November 20th, 2013
9:48 pm

While I’m here, lets look at things geographically. The Southern Crescent is playing the best ball in the state.
6A Lovejoy
Hughes
5A Creekside
Mundy’s Mill
4A Sandy Creek
Griffin
Stockbridge
2A Lamar County
1AP ELCA

RobFromNorcross

November 20th, 2013
10:01 pm

Yeah that’s what this shows Sportskook- Lovejoy and Hughes– best ball in the state! You are 2 TDs below the “best ball in the state”

BcS2010

November 20th, 2013
10:01 pm

Apparently creekside is the favorite now! Lol this maxwell things is BS!! Like I had said since the 1st blog this season TUCKER WILL WIN STATE THIS YEAR!

WolfDawg

November 20th, 2013
10:32 pm

Gee imagine that – An ALL-Gwinnett County Finals…

Been saying that all season!!

WolfDawg

November 20th, 2013
10:44 pm

PS – Woodward Academy’s chances fly out the window this weekend!!

Just asking – how do they get a #3?? Makes no sense at all…

Agree & have been hoping for a Buford – Washington County finals for weeks!!

WolfDawg

November 20th, 2013
10:46 pm

Delusional Sportsnut –

Say what you may…

Ok – Ok – maybe Gwinnett is in Your Southern Crescent….

Delusional….

:)

Sportsnut

November 20th, 2013
11:09 pm

@WolfDawg == Look it up. All these teams are in what is known as the Southern Crescent. It is an area south of Atlanta consisting of Clayton, Henry, Fayette, Coweta South Fulton and Spaulding Counties. Gwinnett is not included. We claim Lamar County because it is just below Griffin.

The truth is the truth. Look it up !

RobFromNorcross

November 20th, 2013
11:50 pm

@Sportsknob = Take your geography facts to “I’m smarter than a 3rd Grader- football edition”…

The point is that Lovejoy isn’t even close to the best ball in the state, but instead 60 miles south. In fact Lovejoy plays (as in sandbox) in the weakest region by far in AAAAAA.

And Lovejoy is ranked safely in the bottom half of the remaining playoff teams, and below a #5 team from region 7 that didn’t make the playoffs. So, if Lovejoy played in Region 7 they would have been the 6th best team a long way from the playoffs. If they played in Region 1, Lovejoy would have been 3rd or 4th seed at best.

The highest quality team you played and beat all season is #17 in the classification. It is pretty humorous to see you riding the coattails of Mighty Mundy’s Mill… ranked 21st in AAAAA. I think Sportsnot your understanding of what a really good team looks like is completely out of whack. I guess you play Luella long enough and your disgrontificator gets completely discombobulated…

This week. are you picking Brookwood over Norcross, and Dacula over PTR, and Alpharetta over Collins Hill Sportsnot?

Bear_Backer

November 21st, 2013
1:56 am

Sportsnut – gotta put Upson in there too since there is a Southern Crescent Technical College there, joined with the one in Griffin a few years back if I am correct. (oh and its SPALDING not SPAULDING just for your knowledge base there bud!) Im all in for your Southern Crescent Conference. There is more talent concentrated in the central Georgia area than anywhere, BAR NONE.

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
6:26 am

@Bear Backer == I was talking teams that are still in it. Thanks for the reminder. Paulding does that to me. Good luck Friday.
Yeah, they would fit. So would Cedar Grove, since they are on the Clayton-DeKalb line.

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
6:38 am

@RobfromNorcross == The topic was the football being played in the Southern Crescent. I told you, you are labeling yourself. No one to blame but you. I see you never make mention of me wishing you and your son’s team luck. You challenge everything else I say. Do you think that too was not real? Suit yourself. That outfit does not look good on anyone.

BPH

November 21st, 2013
7:27 am

Sorry Loren… Couldn’t help but notice that the Maxwell model simulates St. Pius as having a better chance to win the AAA Championship than Cartersville. Interestingly, the Maxwell model also picks Cartersville to beat St. Pius this week. Ya gotta be cussin’ that home field kicker ’bout now! :-)

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
7:52 am

Is that region 8 and 6 below region 2 in AAAAAA?

tommy

November 21st, 2013
8:03 am

Fun to look at, but glad that it gets played out on the field

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
8:05 am

50 percent of the # 1’s in the state reside in the Southern Crescent.
There are 9 teams from the Southern Crescent still in the playoffs.
#1 Sandy Creek
# 1Creekside
# 1 ELCA
# 3 Griffin
# 4 Lamar County
# 7 Langston Hughes
# 9 Stockbridge
# 11 Lovejoy
# 21 Mundy’s Mill

Football

November 21st, 2013
8:28 am

@ RobFromNorcross – Congrats to your Gwinnett County successes in football and many other sports. You have good players and well coached teams. You also have almost twice the number of students (prospective athletes) than others you are fortunate to compete against outside of Gwinnett.

School
Count
Mill Creek
3708
Norcross
3649
Berkmar
3376
Brookwood
3372
Peachtree Ridge
3204
Meadowcreek
3119
Collins Hill
3075

Lovejoy 2044….believe it many are fortunate they don’t have 3500!!

AAA Confusion

November 21st, 2013
8:46 am

Loren: So, you project St. Pius as the most likely semifinalist from that part of the bracket. But, you favor Cartersville by 1 point in the game tomorrow vs. St. Pius. http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-high-school-sports/2013/11/21/second-round-preview-class-aaa/?cxntfid=blogs_georgia_high_school_sports

How can that be?

Todd Holcomb

November 21st, 2013
9:01 am

Good question about SPX-Cartersville. What I notice is that SPX and Cartersville are essentially equal teams in Maxwell’s ratings, but SPX is rated very slightly stronger, less than a point. But since Cartersville is the home team this week, C’ville becomes a very slight favorite in this game, probably less than a point. Perhaps the difference you see in the 1 million trials – still very close – is just a little random luck by SPX. Again, the difference is very slight.

Loren Maxwell

November 21st, 2013
9:39 am

@BPH: “Sorry Loren… Couldn’t help but notice that the Maxwell model simulates St. Pius as having a better chance to win the AAA Championship than Cartersville. Interestingly, the Maxwell model also picks Cartersville to beat St. Pius this week.”

@AAA Confusion: “Loren: So, you project St. Pius as the most likely semifinalist from that part of the bracket. But, you favor Cartersville by 1 point in the game tomorrow vs. St. Pius . . . How can that be?”

@Todd Holcomb: “What I notice is that SPX and Cartersville are essentially equal teams in Maxwell’s ratings, but SPX is rated very slightly stronger, less than a point. But since Cartersville is the home team this week, C’ville becomes a very slight favorite in this game, probably less than a point. Perhaps the difference you see in the 1 million trials – still very close – is just a little random luck by SPX.”

Good catch. I didn’t notice that one myself.

Todd has the answer partially, in that the teams are essentially equal, with St. Pius X being rated 0.35 points better than Cartersville, while the home advantage, currently 1.10, makes Cartersville a 0.85 favorite for tomorrow night.

The rest of the answer is that when I do the weekly projected margins, I take into account the home advantage, thus showing Cartersville as a 1 point favorite (rounded off from 0.85).

However, when I originally programmed the playoff simulator, the first version of the program was meant to get the bracket structure correct and it ignored the home advantage. The intent was to go back and incorporate the GHSA rules for determining home sites for each round in the next version. Unfortunately, I just haven’t had time to follow up on that version yet, so in the simulator St. Pius X still looks like a 0.35 favorite for this week’s game.

For the vast majority of the teams, this makes little difference since the stronger teams are typically the host teams anyway, but this is a scenario where it does.

I’ll have to prioritize this fix higher so it’s ready for next year!

WolfDawg

November 21st, 2013
10:13 am

Thank Goodness the games are played on the FIELD & not an X-box…
Nice tho, that the X-box version gets THE Delusional SportsNut all excited!!

BTW – I am very well aware of the Southern Crescent BUT your Mason-Dick/son line has NTHING to do with crowning Champions… AAAAAA will reside in Gwinnett as will AAA… MM or LJ will not get a sniff….

But keep playing along the 1,000,000 X’s & see how they come out on your X-box…

PS – Apologies to X-box players (sic)

:) :)

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
10:21 am

@WolfDawg == Stop pretending. You probably never heard of the Southern Crescent and have been in Georgia all your life. No one said it had anything to do with crowning champions. Now, roll over, come on, you can do it. Now, sit. Good boy!

WolfDawg

November 21st, 2013
10:26 am

@ Delusional Sportsnut –

You are the one that has used these numbers to try & boast that there’s something in your area that will bring you a State Championship…

Stats are for losers ….

Where the Facts are is on the field of play & last I checked your team (not a flame to your team, as it will remain unnamed.) has NONE….

But go ahead & feed your X-box or ask Max to, & come back Friday night to see the FACTS…

Now run along before you are once again Tennis Faced… Forehand.. Backhand…. Overhead Smash!!

WeAreNorth!!

November 21st, 2013
10:58 am

@WolfDawg – “Stats are for losers…..” Come on brother. Stats are the ONLY facts that show a history of games played and trends. If we didn’t have stats, the game would be pointless. Would it not?

Many Wolves, One PACK!

nourstuff

November 21st, 2013
11:15 am

@Loren Maxwell, I’m curious if ELCA’s calculated chance this year is an all-time high in your experience-is this a all-time high across all classes? I don’t know how long you have been running these simulations? Any comment as to whether ELCA’s prohibitive favorite status this year is more due to the strength of the team or the weakness of the field?

That Dude Says...

November 21st, 2013
11:24 am

That Dude Says...

November 21st, 2013
11:27 am

Weird… I hit the #1 key and clicked on submit comment and it showed up. I tried to leave a comment on another article and it didn’t show up. Oh well.

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
11:48 am

If Norcross is one of your best team in the state of Georgia , this state has nothing to bragg about when it comes to High School Football, I still remember that funeral I went to in Norcross were we put them 12ft under, they suck!!!! If you think it was a fluke then my school will play u again, I am tired of people crying talking about it was the first game, Bla Bla Bla, it was ours too. Booker T Washington I bet if say that loud at Norcross you probably would get expelled .

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
12:07 pm

@WolfDawg @RobFromNorcross by looking at the enrollment of Gwinnett Co maybe you need to combine all of your schools so that they can compete against real competition, By the way our enrollment is less than 1500. WOW!!!!!

Loren Maxwell

November 21st, 2013
12:21 pm

@BPH, AAA Confusion, and Todd Holcomb:

OK, I rewrote the simulator to take into account to the home advantage for the next round, since that’s always known. The program still assumes a neutral field for all subsequent rounds. This model will be used for the remainder of the season and I’ll work on updating the model to figure the future round home sites during the off season.

Instead of rewriting the article to make relatively minor changes to the percentages, here’s the revised total wins for each team in the simulator:


AAAAAA
Norcross            318433
Collins Hill        263299
North Gwinnett      234935
Peachtree Ridge     46436
Colquitt County     45683
Camden County       45572
Langston Hughes     16494
Lovejoy             8858
Archer              4972
Lowndes             4125
Hillgrove           3864
North Cobb          3561
McEachern           2536
Alpharetta          620
Dacula              513
Brookwood           99

AAAAA
Creekside                     313545
Gainesville                   170271
Tucker                        158807
Kell                          118520
Northside (Warner Robins)     57685
Warner Robins                 51729
North Paulding                47079
South Paulding                25242
Ware County                   19168
Lee County                    17981
Stephenson                    7696
Richmond Hill                 4835
Harris County                 3324
Mundy's Mill                  1621
East Paulding                 1498
Mays                          999

AAAA
Sandy Creek                   568695
Carrollton                    214384
Griffin                       84367
Monroe Area                   53411
Marist                        24454
Burke County                  16658
Wayne County                  15111
Stockbridge                   7634
Statesboro                    6160
Veterans                      2486
Lanier                        2162
Alexander                     1943
Chestatee                     842
Mary Persons                  815
Westover                      718
Gilmer                        160

AAA
Buford                        557308
Washington County             416457
Woodward Academy              6090
Blessed Trinity               5522
Cartersville                  4250
St. Pius X                    4073
Callaway                      2499
Cedar Grove                   1757
White County                  639
Ringgold                      620
Carver (Columbus)             431
Appling County                234
Central (Carrollton)          87
Pierce County                 23
Jefferson County              9
Peach County                  1

AA
Lovett                        586633
Benedictine                   144806
Lamar County                  112574
Greater Atlanta Christian     79334
Washington-Wilkes             49218
Brooks County                 9121
Calhoun                       8503
Jefferson                     4435
Vidalia                       2083
Heard County                  1823
Laney                         725
Thomasville                   351
Bowdon                        215
Bleckley County               160
Fitzgerald                    14
Kendrick                      5

A-Public
Seminole County               417056
Clinch County                 214039
Irwin County                  138328
Marion County                 95756
Hawkinsville                  29811
Johnson County                29451
Dooly County                  23403
Charlton County               19756
Lincoln County                12443
Commerce                      11953
Mitchell County               2667
Turner County                 1766
Emanuel County Institute      1507
Trion                         1342
Claxton                       682
Wilkinson County              40

A-Private
Eagle's Landing Christian     761583
Mount Pisgah Christian        83496
Calvary Day                   32580
Prince Avenue Christian       31430
Landmark Christian            26041
Aquinas                       23528
Mount Paran Christian         21813
Darlington                    12456
Our Lady of Mercy             3818
Holy Innocents                1839
Christian Heritage            719
Brookstone                    204
Athens Christian              153
Savannah Christian            131
Pacelli                       107
First Presbyterian            102

Sportsnut

November 21st, 2013
12:31 pm

@WolfDawg == Stop reading what is not there. I wrote what I meant to say and that is all. Nothing more, nothing less. Just look at it and say, he’s right. There are no lies. there is no hidden agenda. Just telling the truth.

My2Cents

November 21st, 2013
1:17 pm

@SouthFla…..You are another one of those S FL bandwagoners. You are probably a University of Miami fan who has never stepped foot on that campus or BTW’s as well. I know your type. There is no question that BTW is the best team in the country right now IMO, but they do not dominate year in and year out so stop acting like this is a powerhouse program.

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
1:51 pm

@my2cents that’s all u and your statement is worth, For your information if you no what that mean, I have a degree from the Univ of Fla and also played the game, I bet you are probably some fat old grumpy man who have never played a down in his life, like I stated before do your research before you clog up your stomach I no that statement went over your head, do you know what a high school campus even look like, let alone a college campus. Now to educate you on football do your research, your team will never ever beat BTW, and No we didn’t just start winning by the way how many championships do you have. I am not a bandwagon fan, bandwagoners is two words if didn’t no that not one , maybe you need to step on someone campus and get educated IJS, that mean I’m Just Saying. Do you dominate year after year, No but we do, do your research. And I bet no one from Ga will ever schedule us again…….

Educated in Georgia

November 21st, 2013
2:04 pm

@SouthFla:
“my school will play u again”
“that’s all u and your statement is worth”
“if you no what that mean”
“man who have never”
“I no that statement went over your head”

WTF, where did you go to school?

“I have a degree from the Univ of Fla”

Nevermind

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
2:10 pm

@Educated in Georgia have u ever step on a campus, I can tell by the post u never played any sports, my bad the band. What did u play the flute. There is no need to talk to u. Don’t get mad be happy.

Educated in Georgia

November 21st, 2013
2:16 pm

@SouthFla

How can you possibly imply I’ve never stepped foot on a campus when you can barely feed the sentence through your caveman translator?

I’m sure you weren’t good on whatever team you were on, you too damn lazy to even spell out “you”, a three letter word. And I can’t even begin to guess if you are trying abbreviate “know” down to “no” or you just don’t even realize there’s a difference.

Look, BTW won fair and square and hats off to them, but go get someone who can communicate effectively and explain to them what you’re trying to say to actually educated people and have them type it out.

My2Cents

November 21st, 2013
2:23 pm

@SouthFla….I hate to admit this, but I went to UF and played a little football as well. That being said, you wanting to correct my spelling when your spelling and grammer are atrocious is comical. At least I know the difference between no & know and when a word should be plural.

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
2:25 pm

@educatedingeorgia, first it all goes together, I am not going to waste my time with a flute player, and you were correct about one thing u said I wasn’t good I was great, I never lost to sorry Ga in the 4 years I played, by way we’re did u play at, my bad I forgot you did state that u played for Athens Tech College.

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
2:27 pm

@my2cents what year were u there.

SouthFla

November 21st, 2013
2:30 pm

@my2cents did u forget what year you played

Educated in Georgia

November 21st, 2013
2:37 pm

@SouthFla

“Flute player” — Good one.

Ok, in post at 2:25 pm you were 1 for 4 on spelling out the word “you” but botched in the next two posts. Maybe another year of English will get you there.

And congratulations on being on a team that beat Georgia four years in a row. I’m guessing actual great like Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer might have had something to do with that as well, but I suppose you’ll hang onto that former glory all your life since you obviously didn’t make the Academic All-American team.

@My2cents

Does your school realize it’s issuing defective products? I actually respect UF, but I’m wondering if they realize they have such a blatant example of failure not only running around loose but having the audacity to advertise he is from there.

My2Cents

November 21st, 2013
2:37 pm

@SouthFla….I don’t want to give too much info away about me because I like to appear impartial & unbiased when I post on here. What I will say …….I was at UF in the early to mid 80’s, so I am old and grumpy, but not fat.

My2Cents

November 21st, 2013
2:43 pm

@Educated in Georgia…..You are a quick wit and spot on…..However, as a Gator, I have to love my boy SouthFla.

Jusfellofftheturniptruck

November 21st, 2013
2:45 pm

Hey south fla? How’s the weather down there? Ain’t u got better stuff to do than blog up here bout ga high school football? Guess not.

Here goes:

Btw was one game. What about what Grayson did last year to Miami central? There have been many other fla schools that have come to ga and left with a butt whoopin

When ga plays fla in high school football over the past few years, sometimes fla beats ga pretty good, ( btw – Norcross) sometimes ga beats fla pretty good ( Grayson n central) and sometimes it’s close (sandy creek n plant)

Point is: one game does not a trend make.

Ps diction and abbreviations aren’t always indicative if intelligence or education. In today’s text crazy world, bad spelling and abbreviations are becoming mainstream, no matter how much one may hate it or love it, it’s just what it is.