Maxwell Ratings simulate playoffs 1 million times, expect Norcross, Gainesville, Sandy Creek, Buford to repeat

The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1 million times for each of the top five classifications.

Each team is shown with their rating, their class ranking, their strength of draw in the tournament, their average depth advanced to and their number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.

Each region is also presented as well as the most common semi-final and championship matchups.

Of the more interesting results:

- The 2012 champions of the top four classifications (Norcross, Gainesville, Sandy Creek, and Buford) are all favored to repeat.

- Gainesville, Sandy Creek and Lovett are all the highest-rated teams and enjoy the easiest draws in their respective classifications.  Buford is the highest-rated team and has the second-easiest draw in AAA.

- On average, Sandy Creek, Buford, Washington County and Lovett all advance more than four rounds into the playoffs.

- Henry County, Sonoraville, Pepperrell and Wesleyan all face odds of over a billion to one to win the championship.

- There is zero chance of a title game rematch for any of the top five classifications.

AAAAAA

- On one hand, AAAAAA is wide open, with Norcross leading the pack but with less than a 30% chance of winning the tournament and a total of 11 teams with greater than 1% chance.  Norcross has the lowest chance of any favorite.  However, teams representing Region 7-AAAAAA or 1-AAAAAA have an 89% to win it all.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Norcross vs Colquitt County, 309,566 times

North Gwinnett vs Collins Hill, 289,714 times

Final

Norcross vs North Gwinnett, 172,595 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Norcross 3 92.92 76.83 3.29 284,759
North Gwinnett 1 94.72 82.78 2.67 218,044
Collins Hill 2 93.1 81.47 2.68 198,494
Colquitt County 5 86.7 79.62 2.24 81,477
Camden County 4 88.47 82 2.01 71,976
Peachtree Ridge 8 81.99 81.29 1.54 26,234
Langston Hughes 6 83.6 84.13 1.35 22,657
Hillgrove 7 83.25 81.59 1.53 20,868
North Cobb 12 79.91 78.26 1.6 17,332
McEachern 9 80.52 80.69 1.58 14,197
Lovejoy 10 80.3 82.65 1.15 13,768
Archer 13 79.74 83.28 1.14 7,350
Lowndes 14 77.17 81.43 1.22 7,081
Marietta 15 76.5 83.41 0.7 3,999
Alpharetta 16 75.87 82.09 1.06 3,218
Lassiter 20 75.19 82.65 0.64 3,000
Valdosta 17 75.64 85.72 0.48 1,569
Walton 18 75.52 86.44 0.27 1,455
Milton 19 75.49 87.8 0.21 921
West Forsyth 24 68.89 81.93 0.67 435
Etowah 23 69.27 81.56 0.16 426
Dacula 25 68.58 82.01 0.64 383
Lambert 27 64.56 80.06 0.57 113
East Coweta 26 66.2 83.9 0.31 109
Brookwood 29 63.9 80.11 0.53 85
Newnan 31 63.81 85.09 0.11 30
North Forsyth 34 62.77 86.68 0.17 7
Westlake 33 62.79 87.14 0.08 7
South Gwinnett 36 60.99 85.06 0.2 6
Newton 44 55.27 85.88 0.08 -
Alcovy 43 55.65 86.81 0.06 -
Luella 52 50.81 84.08 0.05 -
Region Wins
7 – AAAAAA 727,531
1 – AAAAAA 162,103
4 – AAAAAA 56,396
3 – AAAAAA 22,803
2 – AAAAAA 13,768
8 – AAAAAA 7,824
5 – AAAAAA 5,802
6 – AAAAAA 3,773

AAAAA

- AAAAA is also wide open, with four teams having greater than 10% chance to win the championship.  Additionally, six different regions have a greater than a 5% chance to have the winner.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Gainesville vs Northside (Warner Robins), 325,966 times

Creekside vs Kell, 287,430 times

Final

Gainesville vs Creekside, 202,947 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Gainesville 1 85.12 67.56 3.39 330,798
Creekside 2 83.13 70.22 2.88 223,252
Kell 3 79.38 69.72 2.54 121,004
Northside (Warner Robins) 4 78.75 71.02 2.27 102,693
Thomas County Central 5 76.98 72.21 1.87 55,741
Tucker 7 73.86 67.95 2.26 51,118
Warner Robins 6 76.89 73.87 1.64 47,206
Lee County 8 72.16 67.97 1.87 26,474
Harris County 9 69.67 70.32 1.32 11,905
Flowery Branch 11 67.76 72.09 1.25 7,127
Houston County 10 68.51 72.7 1.19 7,052
North Paulding 12 67.05 70.75 1.41 6,752
Ware County 13 65.4 71.66 1.09 3,599
South Paulding 14 64.81 71.85 0.88 2,234
McIntosh 15 63.56 75.29 0.31 1,112
Clarke Central 18 60.37 72.68 0.77 503
Whitewater 16 61.99 76.85 0.24 322
Stephenson 19 59.03 74.5 0.42 272
Lakeside (Evans) 17 60.4 74.77 0.14 257
East Paulding 22 55.87 71.59 0.68 163
Allatoona 20 57.02 74.19 0.15 92
Mundy’s Mill 21 56.9 75.49 0.29 82
Creekview 28 53.57 72.04 0.52 62
Mays 25 54.69 73.54 0.41 46
Sequoyah 24 55.01 72.73 0.29 43
Bainbridge 29 53.08 74.12 0.25 26
Heritage (Conyers) 32 51.42 72.44 0.14 20
Riverwood 31 52.04 73.76 0.23 17
Richmond Hill 26 53.97 76.69 0.1 15
M.L. King 30 52.2 74.14 0.05 12
Glynn Academy 39 47.42 73.17 0.1 1
Effingham County 48 38.65 74.68 0.04 -
Region Wins
8 – AAAAA 338,448
4 – AAAAA 224,768
2 – AAAAA 157,208
7 – AAAAA 121,126
1 – AAAAA 94,146
6 – AAAAA 51,448
5 – AAAAA 9,241
3 – AAAAA 3,615

AAAA

- There is an 82.5% chance of Sandy Creek or Carrollton winning the title.  Since both teams are from the same region, a team from 5-AAAA has an 82.8% chance of winning the title.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Sandy Creek vs Wayne County, 344,976

Carrollton vs Marist, 327,038 times

Final

Sandy Creek vs Carrollton, 429,744 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Sandy Creek 1 93.27 64.43 4.08 586,248
Carrollton 2 85.58 68.24 3.19 238,873
Griffin 3 79.92 67.92 2.16 77,990
Monroe Area 4 74.69 69.8 1.56 29,574
Marist 5 71.77 66.91 2.33 28,102
Wayne County 8 66.82 65.76 2 11,675
Burke County 7 67.12 67.98 1.92 9,231
Stockbridge 9 65.76 69.11 1.48 5,265
Statesboro 6 68.98 73.14 1.07 4,315
Veterans 11 62.09 66.36 1.53 3,121
Troup 10 62.68 70.11 1.22 2,052
Alexander 14 59.19 68.8 1.07 1,080
Eagle’s Landing 13 59.44 72.55 0.8 589
Dalton 17 56.36 69.37 0.75 377
Chestatee 12 59.83 70.97 0.79 344
Mary Persons 15 57.78 73.02 0.65 312
Lanier 18 55.34 68.5 0.89 305
Westover 16 56.55 71.38 0.75 229
Liberty County 19 54.85 71.72 0.61 115
Carver (Atlanta) 22 52.72 69.34 0.64 106
Westside (Macon) 21 53.57 73.17 0.34 59
Cairo 20 54.35 75.61 0.2 18
Northwest Whitfield 23 50.27 75.39 0.03 5
Gilmer 27 47.42 73.46 0.2 5
Grady 25 48.95 70.93 0.26 4
Monroe 31 43.49 72.03 0.11 2
Cedartown 29 46.61 73.77 0.01 1
Banneker 28 46.75 75.38 0.06 1
Crisp County 32 43.36 72.73 0.1 1
Locust Grove 36 41.45 70.49 0.13 1
Stephens County 34 41.64 72.94 0.05 -
Rutland 39 40.09 75.89 0.02 -
Region Wins
5 – AAAA 828,253
4 – AAAA 83,845
8 – AAAA 30,223
6 – AAAA 28,213
3 – AAAA 25,336
2 – AAAA 3,492
7 – AAAA 388
1 – AAAA 250

AAA

- Buford and Washington County dominate the AAA tournament, with 98.2% chance of one or the other winning the championship.  Consequently, there is a 98.5% chance of a team representing 7-AAA or 3-AAA being the champion.

- Aside from being the top two teams in AAA, Buford and Washington County also benefit from having the easiest draws by far, each being at least a field goal easier than Callaway’s third easiest draw.

- Sonoraville faces whopping 504 billion to 1 odds to win the championship in AAA, the highest against any team in any classification.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals:

Buford vs Callaway, 426,840 times

Washington County vs North Hall, 387,819 times

Final:

Buford vs Washington County, 813,576 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Buford 1 101.65 60.95 4.47 649,227
Washington County 2 94.22 59.58 4.14 332,944
Blessed Trinity 4 70.25 69.76 1.74 3,603
Woodward Academy 3 72.01 73.45 0.94 3,248
Callaway 7 67.84 65.74 2.34 3,212
North Hall 8 65.64 69.97 1.78 2,139
Cartersville 6 68.37 75.14 1.54 1,917
St. Pius X 5 68.61 77.52 1.17 1,556
Elbert County 11 61.53 72.61 1.02 524
White County 10 63.26 71.21 1.31 476
Carver (Columbus) 12 60.43 69.11 1.6 430
Hart County 9 63.96 79 0.65 332
Cedar Grove 13 59.27 73.06 0.76 243
Appling County 17 52.27 67.71 1.44 75
Central (Carrollton) 19 49.61 67.07 1.36 33
Ringgold 18 50.66 74.37 0.26 11
Jefferson County 20 49.23 70.05 1.09 10
North Oconee 14 55.31 72.84 0.16 8
West Hall 16 52.84 78.25 0.22 6
Pierce County 21 48.33 75.11 0.62 3
Thomson 22 46.96 75.52 0.53 2
Peach County 24 42.91 69.98 0.62 1
Dodge County 29 37.86 70.6 0.25 -
B.E.S.T. Academy 26 40.25 73.15 0.16 -
Chapel Hill 27 38.38 69.78 0.39 -
Pike County 34 32.66 73.32 0.18 -
Southeast Bulloch 33 32.96 75.36 0.18 -
Jackson County 31 34.17 76.98 0.03 -
Adairsville 32 33.87 78.63 0.05 -
Johnson (Savannah) 35 29.94 72.43 0 -
Henry County 40 23.06 74.69 0.01 -
Sonoraville 43 20.59 77.16 0 -

AA

- Although Lovett is the heavy favorite, three other teams have a greater than 10% chance to win the tournament and a total of five teams have a greater than 1% chance.  Due primarily to Lovett and Greater Atlanta Christian, there is a 73% chance the champion will be from Region 6-AA.

- Aside from being the top rated AA team, Lovett also benefits from an incredibly easy draw – a full touchdown lighter than Washington-Wilkes, the second easiest.  Lovett’s draw is also nearly 25 points easier than Rabun County’s.  This is the largest difference in the top five classifications.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals:

Lovett vs Washington-Wilkes, 493,846 times

Benedictine vs Lamar County, 360,667 times

Final:

Lovett vs Benedictine, 282,142 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Lovett 1 86.34 51.09 4.41 630,398
Benedictine 3 77.02 62.15 2.89 118,534
Greater Atlanta Christian 2 78.04 68.06 2.48 102,344
Lamar County 4 74.83 62.4 2.95 100,898
Washington-Wilkes 6 66.26 58.3 2.43 23,221
Brooks County 7 62.84 59.86 2.17 10,034
Calhoun 5 66.41 68.36 1.31 5,693
Heard County 8 60.97 63.24 1.68 3,218
Vidalia 10 57.83 62.46 1.5 1,934
Westminster 9 60.26 70.36 0.96 1,493
Laney 12 56.09 65.32 1.12 867
Thomasville 13 55.44 65.34 1.08 477
Jefferson 11 56.8 71.5 0.62 403
Bowdon 14 52.32 63.84 1.1 307
Bryan County 15 49.69 67.29 0.66 85
Bleckley County 16 48.93 67.5 0.61 62
Cook 18 46.23 67.29 0.35 17
Fitzgerald 19 45.98 68.57 0.64 8
Kendrick 22 39.61 60.98 0.69 4
Rabun County 17 47.11 75.98 0.05 2
Dublin 21 41.86 69.11 0.42 1
Metter 23 39.34 69.5 0.03 -
Macon County 24 38.43 69.86 0.03 -
Taylor County 27 35.36 68.79 0.11 -
Dade County 33 31.86 60.61 0.32 -
Model 32 33.96 67.84 0.14 -
Westside (Augusta) 31 34.09 68.69 0.11 -
Manchester 25 36.86 74.27 0.05 -
Screven County 37 26.37 67.15 0.03 -
Union County 42 23.51 63.66 0 -
Pepperell 39 25.92 70.25 0.03 -
Wesleyan 43 21.89 67.17 0.01 -
Region Wins
6 – AA 734,235
2 – AA 120,553
4 – AA 100,960
8 – AA 23,626
1 – AA 10,536
7 – AA 5,693
5 – AA 3,529
3 – AA 868

113 comments Add your comment

LoveFridayFootball

November 15th, 2013
1:16 pm

Never any love for Single A football…

Camden 2013

November 15th, 2013
1:56 pm

@AAAAAAAAAA Buford
Next year, come to Camden and prove it. I am betting Buford would get beat badly. Better yet, invite Camden to come there. You talk all the time, but you need to show this on the field. If you are so good, let’s get this done and put all this rhetoric to bed.
And don’t say all those Championships show it on the field. Beating up on AA and AAA and the occasional AAAA school does not count.
Let’s see a real schedule. Come play a few folks in Region 1-6A. Bet you would not make the playoffs if in Region 1-6A.

Camden 2013

November 15th, 2013
1:57 pm

And watch out for Prince Avenue ….. Jeff Herron already making his presence felt!

WolfDawg

November 15th, 2013
2:14 pm

Uhhhh Camden 2013 –

Gainesville was defending AAAAA State champion not AAAA…

You could have your AD call Dexter Wood for a home & home

dexter.wood@bufordcityschools.org
Phone: 770-945-6768 x122

But your AD does not have the gnads!!

RobFromNorcross

November 15th, 2013
3:01 pm

Tonight the playoffs will be played for the 1,000,001th time, this time on the field and this one is the one that counts!

Less than 5 hours to kickoff!!!

Loren Maxwell

November 15th, 2013
3:24 pm

@RealisticFan: “Question AAAAA last year you had Gainesville starting out as 1% championship winner. Can you explain a little about how the year over year figures would move them all the way to the top of the charts in in year ?”

My apologies — I overlooked this question until now.

Not sure exactly what you mean by their “year over year figures”, but Gainesville’s rating at this point is based on this season’s result.  Their playoff chances last year would not be considered.

Loren Maxwell

November 15th, 2013
3:27 pm

@RobFromNorcross: “Tonight the playoffs will be played for the 1,000,001th time, this time on the field and this one is the one that counts!”

LOL

Good luck!

Loren Maxwell

November 15th, 2013
3:29 pm

@LoveFridayFootball: “Never any love for Single A football…”

Look for the playoff odds next week.

matthew abrams

November 15th, 2013
4:00 pm

just wait til the dust settle, burke co. wayne co. in the dome.

matthew abrams

November 15th, 2013
4:05 pm

Strongest region in AAAA is region 3 where you have Burke co., Wayne co., Statesboro, Liberty co. Watch out, 2 will make it through.

GreenNGold

November 15th, 2013
4:09 pm

We will take your Booyah “an exclamation used to express extreme pleasure, approval, etc.” and turn it into extreme energy for the playoffs this year!
For such a small town, Buford sure gets a lot of hate Booyah, which fuels our energy!
Personally, I am described as a person that “can’t win enough”, very different from a looser that hates to lose!
Think about it…..

Tommydawg22

November 15th, 2013
5:06 pm

http://www.nfhsnetwork.com/channels/georgia Link to the Colquitt-Newnan game for those interested. Good luck tonight and safe travels to everyone.

Purp Nation

November 17th, 2013
11:03 am

@Troup Tiger – Gilmer Co still has the purple on their uniforms. Come on back if you ever want to try again! To borrower a line from Charlie Daniels. Troup Co team and Coaches were a total class act before during and after the game. Awesome game. Great job Bobcats. We’ll take underdog status any day of the week. Got a tough one against Marist next. Let’s see how many of their fans show up in camo to make fun of us this year.