Maxwell Ratings simulate playoffs 1 million times, expect Norcross, Gainesville, Sandy Creek, Buford to repeat

The Maxwell Ratings were used to simulate this year’s playoffs 1 million times for each of the top five classifications.

Each team is shown with their rating, their class ranking, their strength of draw in the tournament, their average depth advanced to and their number of times winning the state championship out of the 1 million simulations.

Each region is also presented as well as the most common semi-final and championship matchups.

Of the more interesting results:

- The 2012 champions of the top four classifications (Norcross, Gainesville, Sandy Creek, and Buford) are all favored to repeat.

- Gainesville, Sandy Creek and Lovett are all the highest-rated teams and enjoy the easiest draws in their respective classifications.  Buford is the highest-rated team and has the second-easiest draw in AAA.

- On average, Sandy Creek, Buford, Washington County and Lovett all advance more than four rounds into the playoffs.

- Henry County, Sonoraville, Pepperrell and Wesleyan all face odds of over a billion to one to win the championship.

- There is zero chance of a title game rematch for any of the top five classifications.

AAAAAA

- On one hand, AAAAAA is wide open, with Norcross leading the pack but with less than a 30% chance of winning the tournament and a total of 11 teams with greater than 1% chance.  Norcross has the lowest chance of any favorite.  However, teams representing Region 7-AAAAAA or 1-AAAAAA have an 89% to win it all.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Norcross vs Colquitt County, 309,566 times

North Gwinnett vs Collins Hill, 289,714 times

Final

Norcross vs North Gwinnett, 172,595 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Norcross 3 92.92 76.83 3.29 284,759
North Gwinnett 1 94.72 82.78 2.67 218,044
Collins Hill 2 93.1 81.47 2.68 198,494
Colquitt County 5 86.7 79.62 2.24 81,477
Camden County 4 88.47 82 2.01 71,976
Peachtree Ridge 8 81.99 81.29 1.54 26,234
Langston Hughes 6 83.6 84.13 1.35 22,657
Hillgrove 7 83.25 81.59 1.53 20,868
North Cobb 12 79.91 78.26 1.6 17,332
McEachern 9 80.52 80.69 1.58 14,197
Lovejoy 10 80.3 82.65 1.15 13,768
Archer 13 79.74 83.28 1.14 7,350
Lowndes 14 77.17 81.43 1.22 7,081
Marietta 15 76.5 83.41 0.7 3,999
Alpharetta 16 75.87 82.09 1.06 3,218
Lassiter 20 75.19 82.65 0.64 3,000
Valdosta 17 75.64 85.72 0.48 1,569
Walton 18 75.52 86.44 0.27 1,455
Milton 19 75.49 87.8 0.21 921
West Forsyth 24 68.89 81.93 0.67 435
Etowah 23 69.27 81.56 0.16 426
Dacula 25 68.58 82.01 0.64 383
Lambert 27 64.56 80.06 0.57 113
East Coweta 26 66.2 83.9 0.31 109
Brookwood 29 63.9 80.11 0.53 85
Newnan 31 63.81 85.09 0.11 30
North Forsyth 34 62.77 86.68 0.17 7
Westlake 33 62.79 87.14 0.08 7
South Gwinnett 36 60.99 85.06 0.2 6
Newton 44 55.27 85.88 0.08 -
Alcovy 43 55.65 86.81 0.06 -
Luella 52 50.81 84.08 0.05 -
Region Wins
7 – AAAAAA 727,531
1 – AAAAAA 162,103
4 – AAAAAA 56,396
3 – AAAAAA 22,803
2 – AAAAAA 13,768
8 – AAAAAA 7,824
5 – AAAAAA 5,802
6 – AAAAAA 3,773

AAAAA

- AAAAA is also wide open, with four teams having greater than 10% chance to win the championship.  Additionally, six different regions have a greater than a 5% chance to have the winner.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Gainesville vs Northside (Warner Robins), 325,966 times

Creekside vs Kell, 287,430 times

Final

Gainesville vs Creekside, 202,947 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Gainesville 1 85.12 67.56 3.39 330,798
Creekside 2 83.13 70.22 2.88 223,252
Kell 3 79.38 69.72 2.54 121,004
Northside (Warner Robins) 4 78.75 71.02 2.27 102,693
Thomas County Central 5 76.98 72.21 1.87 55,741
Tucker 7 73.86 67.95 2.26 51,118
Warner Robins 6 76.89 73.87 1.64 47,206
Lee County 8 72.16 67.97 1.87 26,474
Harris County 9 69.67 70.32 1.32 11,905
Flowery Branch 11 67.76 72.09 1.25 7,127
Houston County 10 68.51 72.7 1.19 7,052
North Paulding 12 67.05 70.75 1.41 6,752
Ware County 13 65.4 71.66 1.09 3,599
South Paulding 14 64.81 71.85 0.88 2,234
McIntosh 15 63.56 75.29 0.31 1,112
Clarke Central 18 60.37 72.68 0.77 503
Whitewater 16 61.99 76.85 0.24 322
Stephenson 19 59.03 74.5 0.42 272
Lakeside (Evans) 17 60.4 74.77 0.14 257
East Paulding 22 55.87 71.59 0.68 163
Allatoona 20 57.02 74.19 0.15 92
Mundy’s Mill 21 56.9 75.49 0.29 82
Creekview 28 53.57 72.04 0.52 62
Mays 25 54.69 73.54 0.41 46
Sequoyah 24 55.01 72.73 0.29 43
Bainbridge 29 53.08 74.12 0.25 26
Heritage (Conyers) 32 51.42 72.44 0.14 20
Riverwood 31 52.04 73.76 0.23 17
Richmond Hill 26 53.97 76.69 0.1 15
M.L. King 30 52.2 74.14 0.05 12
Glynn Academy 39 47.42 73.17 0.1 1
Effingham County 48 38.65 74.68 0.04 -
Region Wins
8 – AAAAA 338,448
4 – AAAAA 224,768
2 – AAAAA 157,208
7 – AAAAA 121,126
1 – AAAAA 94,146
6 – AAAAA 51,448
5 – AAAAA 9,241
3 – AAAAA 3,615

AAAA

- There is an 82.5% chance of Sandy Creek or Carrollton winning the title.  Since both teams are from the same region, a team from 5-AAAA has an 82.8% chance of winning the title.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals

Sandy Creek vs Wayne County, 344,976

Carrollton vs Marist, 327,038 times

Final

Sandy Creek vs Carrollton, 429,744 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Sandy Creek 1 93.27 64.43 4.08 586,248
Carrollton 2 85.58 68.24 3.19 238,873
Griffin 3 79.92 67.92 2.16 77,990
Monroe Area 4 74.69 69.8 1.56 29,574
Marist 5 71.77 66.91 2.33 28,102
Wayne County 8 66.82 65.76 2 11,675
Burke County 7 67.12 67.98 1.92 9,231
Stockbridge 9 65.76 69.11 1.48 5,265
Statesboro 6 68.98 73.14 1.07 4,315
Veterans 11 62.09 66.36 1.53 3,121
Troup 10 62.68 70.11 1.22 2,052
Alexander 14 59.19 68.8 1.07 1,080
Eagle’s Landing 13 59.44 72.55 0.8 589
Dalton 17 56.36 69.37 0.75 377
Chestatee 12 59.83 70.97 0.79 344
Mary Persons 15 57.78 73.02 0.65 312
Lanier 18 55.34 68.5 0.89 305
Westover 16 56.55 71.38 0.75 229
Liberty County 19 54.85 71.72 0.61 115
Carver (Atlanta) 22 52.72 69.34 0.64 106
Westside (Macon) 21 53.57 73.17 0.34 59
Cairo 20 54.35 75.61 0.2 18
Northwest Whitfield 23 50.27 75.39 0.03 5
Gilmer 27 47.42 73.46 0.2 5
Grady 25 48.95 70.93 0.26 4
Monroe 31 43.49 72.03 0.11 2
Cedartown 29 46.61 73.77 0.01 1
Banneker 28 46.75 75.38 0.06 1
Crisp County 32 43.36 72.73 0.1 1
Locust Grove 36 41.45 70.49 0.13 1
Stephens County 34 41.64 72.94 0.05 -
Rutland 39 40.09 75.89 0.02 -
Region Wins
5 – AAAA 828,253
4 – AAAA 83,845
8 – AAAA 30,223
6 – AAAA 28,213
3 – AAAA 25,336
2 – AAAA 3,492
7 – AAAA 388
1 – AAAA 250

AAA

- Buford and Washington County dominate the AAA tournament, with 98.2% chance of one or the other winning the championship.  Consequently, there is a 98.5% chance of a team representing 7-AAA or 3-AAA being the champion.

- Aside from being the top two teams in AAA, Buford and Washington County also benefit from having the easiest draws by far, each being at least a field goal easier than Callaway’s third easiest draw.

- Sonoraville faces whopping 504 billion to 1 odds to win the championship in AAA, the highest against any team in any classification.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals:

Buford vs Callaway, 426,840 times

Washington County vs North Hall, 387,819 times

Final:

Buford vs Washington County, 813,576 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Buford 1 101.65 60.95 4.47 649,227
Washington County 2 94.22 59.58 4.14 332,944
Blessed Trinity 4 70.25 69.76 1.74 3,603
Woodward Academy 3 72.01 73.45 0.94 3,248
Callaway 7 67.84 65.74 2.34 3,212
North Hall 8 65.64 69.97 1.78 2,139
Cartersville 6 68.37 75.14 1.54 1,917
St. Pius X 5 68.61 77.52 1.17 1,556
Elbert County 11 61.53 72.61 1.02 524
White County 10 63.26 71.21 1.31 476
Carver (Columbus) 12 60.43 69.11 1.6 430
Hart County 9 63.96 79 0.65 332
Cedar Grove 13 59.27 73.06 0.76 243
Appling County 17 52.27 67.71 1.44 75
Central (Carrollton) 19 49.61 67.07 1.36 33
Ringgold 18 50.66 74.37 0.26 11
Jefferson County 20 49.23 70.05 1.09 10
North Oconee 14 55.31 72.84 0.16 8
West Hall 16 52.84 78.25 0.22 6
Pierce County 21 48.33 75.11 0.62 3
Thomson 22 46.96 75.52 0.53 2
Peach County 24 42.91 69.98 0.62 1
Dodge County 29 37.86 70.6 0.25 -
B.E.S.T. Academy 26 40.25 73.15 0.16 -
Chapel Hill 27 38.38 69.78 0.39 -
Pike County 34 32.66 73.32 0.18 -
Southeast Bulloch 33 32.96 75.36 0.18 -
Jackson County 31 34.17 76.98 0.03 -
Adairsville 32 33.87 78.63 0.05 -
Johnson (Savannah) 35 29.94 72.43 0 -
Henry County 40 23.06 74.69 0.01 -
Sonoraville 43 20.59 77.16 0 -

AA

- Although Lovett is the heavy favorite, three other teams have a greater than 10% chance to win the tournament and a total of five teams have a greater than 1% chance.  Due primarily to Lovett and Greater Atlanta Christian, there is a 73% chance the champion will be from Region 6-AA.

- Aside from being the top rated AA team, Lovett also benefits from an incredibly easy draw – a full touchdown lighter than Washington-Wilkes, the second easiest.  Lovett’s draw is also nearly 25 points easier than Rabun County’s.  This is the largest difference in the top five classifications.

Most Common Matchups:

Semi-Finals:

Lovett vs Washington-Wilkes, 493,846 times

Benedictine vs Lamar County, 360,667 times

Final:

Lovett vs Benedictine, 282,142 times

Team Rank Rating Draw Depth Wins
Lovett 1 86.34 51.09 4.41 630,398
Benedictine 3 77.02 62.15 2.89 118,534
Greater Atlanta Christian 2 78.04 68.06 2.48 102,344
Lamar County 4 74.83 62.4 2.95 100,898
Washington-Wilkes 6 66.26 58.3 2.43 23,221
Brooks County 7 62.84 59.86 2.17 10,034
Calhoun 5 66.41 68.36 1.31 5,693
Heard County 8 60.97 63.24 1.68 3,218
Vidalia 10 57.83 62.46 1.5 1,934
Westminster 9 60.26 70.36 0.96 1,493
Laney 12 56.09 65.32 1.12 867
Thomasville 13 55.44 65.34 1.08 477
Jefferson 11 56.8 71.5 0.62 403
Bowdon 14 52.32 63.84 1.1 307
Bryan County 15 49.69 67.29 0.66 85
Bleckley County 16 48.93 67.5 0.61 62
Cook 18 46.23 67.29 0.35 17
Fitzgerald 19 45.98 68.57 0.64 8
Kendrick 22 39.61 60.98 0.69 4
Rabun County 17 47.11 75.98 0.05 2
Dublin 21 41.86 69.11 0.42 1
Metter 23 39.34 69.5 0.03 -
Macon County 24 38.43 69.86 0.03 -
Taylor County 27 35.36 68.79 0.11 -
Dade County 33 31.86 60.61 0.32 -
Model 32 33.96 67.84 0.14 -
Westside (Augusta) 31 34.09 68.69 0.11 -
Manchester 25 36.86 74.27 0.05 -
Screven County 37 26.37 67.15 0.03 -
Union County 42 23.51 63.66 0 -
Pepperell 39 25.92 70.25 0.03 -
Wesleyan 43 21.89 67.17 0.01 -
Region Wins
6 – AA 734,235
2 – AA 120,553
4 – AA 100,960
8 – AA 23,626
1 – AA 10,536
7 – AA 5,693
5 – AA 3,529
3 – AA 868

113 comments Add your comment

Cool_Coach1

November 14th, 2013
10:12 am

This is sure to spark some debate in AAAAAA….someone will surely say that either the computer or the programmer are from Norcross LOL!

WolfDawg

November 14th, 2013
10:22 am

I picked the same AAAAAA final 4 a week ago!!!

The computer is just now realizing I know as much!!!

& Buford winning its 6th in 7 is no biggie….

Would be great if they could travel down Ptree Ind just a bit & get it on with the Blue Devils (20 miles) & Bulldogs (6 miles)…

No need to travel 15 miles north on McEver, they already destroyed the AAAAA champions

Jusfellofftheturniptruck

November 14th, 2013
10:37 am

Curious, please remind us of the championship picks from last year?

Camden74

November 14th, 2013
10:52 am

Anyone ever heard of, COMPUTER ERROR? :-)

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
10:52 am

Different year, same old talk. Did the computer get it right last year?

Son Of Waco

November 14th, 2013
10:53 am

WACO vs. Buford sound like a match-up I want to see happen….

Camden74

November 14th, 2013
10:56 am

The world is NOT static, it’s dynamic and forever changing. Does the computer program take that into consideration? RELEASE the CATS!!!! :-D

AAA commisioner

November 14th, 2013
10:59 am

We dont need the Maxwell ratings to tell us Buford is gonna win it. Thye will win it the next ten years. They have a huge game against Sonoraville………………….. I mean Sonoraville is loaded and they have ,,,,,,,, well they are good and they do wear pads when they play…….Sonoraville is well known for their,,,, ahhhhhhhhh,,,,,,, well they do wear pads,,,,,,,,,,,,, Thats a Judy Chop…

High 5

November 14th, 2013
11:07 am

I’m glad the games are played on the field and not on the computer!

Suwanee 0wns

November 14th, 2013
11:08 am

So they Region 2 teams other than Lovejoy have ZERO chance of winning a State Championship? Not even 1 in a million? Nobody would see that coming.

Cool_Coach1

November 14th, 2013
11:12 am

@ Suwanee 0wns there you go using them thar fancy numbers again…you’re gonna be labeled an elitist! LOL

RobFromNorcross

November 14th, 2013
11:17 am

I’m gonna have to do some cypherin’ on this…

Camden 2013

November 14th, 2013
11:19 am

Hey
Where is @Sportsnut now?????? Lovejoy way down the list. Think Max got it a bit wrong. Or not!!!!

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
11:23 am

When someone other than the “favorites” advance and some of them are gone, the excuses will fly. People need to understand that some of these playoff teams do not have a chances but some are much better than many think.

My premise is that the leading teams are not that much better than some of the other entries. These are high school kids and you never know what you will get from some. I just hope Lovejoy play’s Lovejoy football against Marietta.

There are going to be some upset fans come Saturday.

My2Cents

November 14th, 2013
11:24 am

I think this is pretty cool. Not sure I agree, but I did pick Norcross to win it all.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
11:26 am

If anyone should remember, it should be 74. Didn’t they do this last season? What was the outcome?

RobFromNorcross

November 14th, 2013
11:28 am

@Sportsnut = You sound like Linus in the Pumpkin Patch waiting for the arrival of the Great Pumpkin…

Swamp Lizard

November 14th, 2013
11:38 am

Can I get a Class A take?

Trojan94

November 14th, 2013
11:39 am

I just know there are some people that’s going to come on here and disagree about carrollton being in the finals but this carrollton team have refocused and are ready for a playoff run NW Whitfield is up first. LET THE PLAYOFFS GAMES BEGIN!!!

Camden74

November 14th, 2013
11:40 am

Sportsnut…Not sure why I would remember. All I know is that the games have to be played before you can identify a winner. As I mentioned previously, the world is not a static place. What’s true today, could be fiction tomorrow. I’m counting on human intervention to slam the computer picks! :-)

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
11:48 am

@ Sportsnut: “Did the computer get it right last year?”

I guess it depends on the criteria for getting “it right”. Did the simulation pick all 155 winners in every bracket for all the top five classifications five weeks in advance? No.

Of course, anyone is free to post their predictions for every single game for the next five weeks of the playoffs. I just think I’m the only one who actually does it.

@ Camden74: “The world is NOT static, it’s dynamic and forever changing. Does the computer program take that into consideration?”

The ratings and the simulations will be updated each week. This is a good time of the year where we get to see more games outside of region opponents. It helps tremendously with rating the teams.

@ Jusfellofftheturniptruck: “Curious, please remind us of the championship picks from last year?”

AAAAAA
The initial simulation projected Camden County with a 28.3% chance of winning while Norcross, the eventual champion, was projected to win the championship 24.8% of the time. Norcross was the higher rated team, but had a tougher draw. Fortunately, the article included this tidbit:
“The primary difference between Camden County and Norcross is the first two rounds, where the Wildcats have a significantly easier draw than the Blue Devils. Camden County has a 92% chance of making the third round whereas Norcross has only about a 75% chance. However, if Norcross can make it to the third round, the Blue Devils will likely be favored to win the championship.”

There is a similar situation this year with North Gwinnett, where they are higher ranked but have a tougher draw than Norcross. North Gwinnett will be favored in every game, but has a tougher path.

AAAAA
Northside (Warner Robins) won the initial simulation 50.3% of the time, but lost to Ware County in the semi-finals. Gainesville, the eventual champion, won 1.0% of the initial simulations.

AAAA
Eventual winner Sandy Creek was the favorite, winning 44.2% of the initial simulations.

AAA
Thomson won the initial simulation 31.7% of the time, but actually lost to Cartersville in the third round. Cartersville moved on to the championship game but lost to Buford, who won the initial simulation 2.7% of the time.

AA
Calhoun won 43.7% of the initial simulations, but lost in the state championship to Jefferson, who won 1.9% of the initial simulations.

For reference, last year’s initial projections are here: http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-high-school-sports/2012/11/14/maxwell-ratings-the-odds-of-each-playoff-team-of-winning-state-title/

@Suwanee 0wns: “So they Region 2 teams other than Lovejoy have ZERO chance of winning a State Championship? Not even 1 in a million?”

Everyone has a chance at winning, but out of 1 million simulations those teams did not.

Their actual odds are:
Newton, 2,389,992.54 to 1
Alcovy, 3,142,655.72 to 1
Luella, 8,229,307.46 to 1

@Swamp Lizard: “Can I get a Class A take?”

Look for them next week.

Flyer

November 14th, 2013
11:57 am

@Loren– So you’re sayin Newton, Alcovy and Luella have a chance. (Couldn’t help but bring up the Dumb & Dumber reference!)

Trojan Horse

November 14th, 2013
12:00 pm

Seriously Trojan94,
Before the SC whipping all everyone heard was how focused this Carrollton team was and how they were different than every group since ‘98. Then they were whipped and embarrassed and now we all have to read people like you post that garbage again. Now Carrollton is refocused. On a mission. The loss to SC was good for them. blah blah blah.

Talk is cheap. PROVE IT!!!!!!

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
12:06 pm

Not even close.
Most common matchup from 12′ for the semi’s was Lassiter vs Grayson = 173,180
Colquitt vs Camden = 193,241
Most common championship matchup from 12′ was Camden vs Lassiter = 106,366

Humans program the computer.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
12:10 pm

And Rob, you sound like Carl Rove on election night.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
12:13 pm

@Flyer: “So you’re sayin Newton, Alcovy and Luella have a chance. (Couldn’t help but bring up the Dumb & Dumber reference!)”

Funniest thing I’ve read in a month!

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
12:15 pm

@Sportsnut: “Humans program the computer.”

This seems like questioning whether an inch is an inch because a human made the ruler.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
12:23 pm

Who were last seasons final 4?
North Cobb
Lovejoy
Norcross
Colquitt
The computer had one (1) right. We know about the blind squirrel.
Championship matchup, Zero

aundrea rock

November 14th, 2013
12:27 pm

I am glad to that the games are played on the field and not on the computer. There is going to be a lot of upset people who are basing there pick by the computer you have glitches in the computers so don’t put no money on them picks go Lamar Trojans the greatest show on turf

Roy D. Mercer

November 14th, 2013
12:32 pm

Loren Maxwell said Last year…
AAA
“Thomson won the initial simulation 31.7% of the time, but actually lost to Cartersville in the third round. Cartersville moved on to the championship game but lost to Buford, who won the initial simulation 2.7% of the time.”

Actually, Buford played St. Pius X in the championship. Buford won 10-3. I have to ask for verification on the Buford winning initial simulation only 2.7% of the time from last year. That just doesn’t sound right.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
12:34 pm

Loren == I’ll tell you just as I have told others. If the input is bad, everything that comes from it is wrong. If you over rate a team, all the results from anything concerning that team is flawed. It seems that there were many teams over rated this year thus making their region(s) rating off.

Is there any validity to my argument?

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
12:47 pm

@Sportsnut: “We know about the blind squirrel.”

No need to be insulting, Sportsnut.

I think no matter what this seemingly endless debate will continue to boil down to an inability to appreciate an objective rating system.

Good luck to Lovejoy. I wish the players, coaches, and fans all the best.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
1:03 pm

@Roy D. Mercer: “Actually, Buford played St. Pius X in the championship. Buford won 10-3. I have to ask for verification on the Buford winning initial simulation only 2.7% of the time from last year. That just doesn’t sound right.”

Good catch. Cartersville lost to Buford in the semi-finals.

Anyway, 2.7% does sound low given Buford’s history, but that’s correct for the initial projections from last year.

Camden74

November 14th, 2013
1:09 pm

Loren……I understand that computer rankings and predictions are the most objective, without a doubt. But, the on field human factor is the elephant in the room, in my opinion. The computer doesn’t take into consideration the pressure some of these kids/coaches will feel just because it’s a playoff game. What about in game injuries, officiating, coaching, weather conditions and last but not least, on field match ups? :-)

Really?????????????????????????

November 14th, 2013
1:11 pm

Come on folks. You can take any situation and put in variables and come out with different outcomes. Everybody needs to step back from the Starbucks and take a deep breath. Any team and I do mean any team can be beaten any night and I do mean any night. The same night your team is playing like the team you know them to be, their opponent could be doing the same thing. Through the years many teams have been picked as the prohibitive favorite and lost in the early rounds or later rounds. Everyone makes excuses for when their team loses. We did not play like we were capable of playing, we gave them points, we had too many of this and that. No one ever gives the winner credit for shutting down offenses, causing turnovers or just being better that night. In the Corky Kell, North Gwinnett was the better team, they executed and beat Camden, no excuses. Since that time Camden has improved every game, Will they win it all? I hope so. Can they win it all? Yes. If they lose I will still be a Camden County Wildcat fan. This is the time of year that you have to play every down, you can’t take plays off, even if you are blowing someone out, you have to getting ready to face another potential state champion. You will hardly face the same offense or defense the following week.

x-factor

November 14th, 2013
1:12 pm

Computer simulation??? And this why you have to play the games!!!! All season long in AAAA Maxwell was saying Carrolton was the team to beat until they got whipped By Sandy Creek. So save all this computer talk because we all know that since there are six classes, Region play is cupcake city with one or maybe two tough games. Tee the ball up games are not won on paper, there are a lot of factors.

blu eagle

November 14th, 2013
1:16 pm

Sounds pretty accurate to me considering history and same type teams and coaches!

Suwanee 0wns

November 14th, 2013
1:21 pm

Region 2 fans need to just avoid any thread with the following words in the title: Maxwell, prediction, margin of victory, or computer. Nothing good can come from looking at the umbers in those threads.

It is kind of like a horror movie for you. In the movie when we see the young lady put her hand on the basement doorknob we all know: DON’T GO IN THE BASEMENT!!!

NGHS 09

November 14th, 2013
1:21 pm

Everyone,

This is a computer-based PROJECTION. It’s based off statistics. It is incapable of calculating the human factor. It isn’t ever going to be 100% accurate. If it was, then we could predict the future and our existence would be entirely different. There would be no reason to play the games. Albeit, computers run our world economies and political infrastructures so it is useless to point out flaw after flaw. It’s just the way it is. The data from simulations like this are used in countless professions for predicting money flow, human interest, THE WEATHER, etc…

With that being said, if Luella has a 8,229,307.46 to 1 chance of winning it all then I’ll root for them LOL. That’s the definition of an underdog.

Let’s look at it this way. The real question is this. Would you rather have football rankings/playoff positioning decided by coaches? OR by a computer system? That’s a tough one.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
1:28 pm

@Loren == Not meaning to be insulting. If you took it that way, I apologize. Just using words. I appreciate what you do. It is just that what I am saying is the truth. You may have your formula but if you miss on a team, or region, it is never acknowledged. Not for you to say you were wrong but for it to show itself in the numbers.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
1:31 pm

@Loren == You did not answer my question.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
1:34 pm

@Camden74: “I understand that computer rankings and predictions are the most objective, without a doubt. But, the on field human factor is the elephant in the room, in my opinion. The computer doesn’t take into consideration the pressure some of these kids/coaches will feel just because it’s a playoff game. What about in game injuries, officiating, coaching, weather conditions and last but not least, on field match ups?”

All fair and good points and I absolutely agree intangibles factor into any human endeavor. Sports history, medical history, military history, business history, political history, etc., is rich with examples of the intangibles making the difference.

However, I don’t believe I’ve ever advocated for the ratings to be anything more than an objective analysis meant to complement other forms of information available during the season.

I can’t believe there’s not room for subjective and objective perspectives on the same subject.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
1:34 pm

@We Own Suwanee == Why? It appears more than region 2 has an issue with the system. It really does not matter, does it? We already know who is going to the final 4 and who the champion is.

Sportsnut

November 14th, 2013
1:47 pm

@Just to clarify my comment about the “Blind squirrel”, it was directed towards the computer, not you. Although you did the input. Your numbers were wrong. That is not your fault unless you are responsible for the initial info. Who assessed the teams? That is where the problems arose, initial assessment.

NGHS 09

November 14th, 2013
1:50 pm

@ Sportsnut… The 0% chance of Norcross and Lovejoy playing a state championship rematch is accurate, BUT technically that rematch will be in the 3rd round. At first i just read 0% chance and I was like, “That sounds a little off to me.” If yal were on opposite sides of the bracket then I’m sure that % would be significantly higher.

DreadHead5

November 14th, 2013
1:52 pm

IT DOESN’T MATTER WAT THE COMPUTER SAYS ANYBODY CAN GET BEAT ON ANY GIVEN NITE THAT’S WHY WE PLAY THE GAMES. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN PLAYERS COULD GET HURT, TURNOVERS, OR JUS BAD PLAY CALLING IT’S THE PLAYOFFS LET THE WINS DO THE TALKING NOT THE COMPUTER

MOUNTAIN MAN

November 14th, 2013
2:01 pm

Words out that the AD for Buford does not want to play teams The Tucker ML king Area to far to travel. He has petition the state. He does not want to travel that far. He does not want to be in AAAAA He wants to stay in AAA But its funny Banks, White, and Elbert County are not to far.

Loren Maxwell

November 14th, 2013
2:01 pm

@Sportsnut: “Loren == I’ll tell you just as I have told others. If the input is bad, everything that comes from it is wrong.”

Sportsnut, this is such a general statement that no one could possibily argue against it, however the implication is that if I agree with it, then I’m also agreeing with your following statement:

“If you over rate a team, all the results from anything concerning that team is flawed. It seems that there were many teams over rated this year thus making their region(s) rating off.”

I do not agree teams are overrated. In fact, in an objective system, none of the teams are overrated or underrated. They are simply rated. It is purely math.

“You may have your formula but if you miss on a team, or region, it is never acknowledged. Not for you to say you were wrong but for it to show itself in the numbers.”

In an objective system, there is no missing of a team or a region. They are rated exactly where they are because of math.

NGHS 09

November 14th, 2013
2:07 pm

@Mountain Man… Coach Simpson has been saying that same crap for the last decade LOL. It’s always “too far” or “inconvenient” or “etc”. He’ll win the petition battle with the GHSA just like he has for the last decade.

NGHS 09

November 14th, 2013
2:09 pm

IMO, I think Buford fans would enjoy their team’s success A LOT more if they didn’t beat every team they played 48-7, 63-0, 42-14, etc. Losing makes winning more of a big deal.