Poll Talk: Mays-Tucker one of several region championship games to come

Big week ahead with several games that are essentially or officially championship games.

The list includes No. 1 Colquitt County at No. 7 Camden County in 1-AAAAAA, No. 1 Tucker at Mays in 6-AAAAA, No. 6 Burke County at No. 7 Wayne County in AAAA and No. 2 Lovett at No. 3 Greater Atlanta Christian in 6-AA, No. 10 Calvary Day at No. 4 Johnson County in 3-A and No. 1 Eagle’s Landing Christain at No. 9 Landmark Christian in 5-A.

The Tucker-Mays game is the surprise. Who figured Mays would be in position to win Region 6 after losing its opening game to Carver of Atlanta. Mays has put itself in position to win its first region title since 2003 with a 13-9 victory over Stephenson on Saturday.

As for the rankings, new teams in the Top 10 are are Peachtree Ridge for North Cobb (AAAAAA), Warner Robins and South Paulding for Stephenson and Allatoona (AAAAA), Stockbridge and Westover for Mary Persons and Cedartown (AAAA), Blessed Trinity for St. Pius in AAA and Irwin County and Calvary Day for Marion County and Darlington in A.

Class AAAAAA

1. (1) Colquitt County (8-1)

2. (2) Lovejoy (8-1)

3. (3) North Gwinnett (8-1)

4. (4) Archer (10-0)

5. (5) Norcross (7-2)

6. (6) Collins Hill (8-1)

7. (7) Camden County (7-1)

8. (9) McEachern (8-1)

9. (10) Hughes (8-1)

10. (NR) Peachtree Ridge (7-2)

Class AAAAA

1. (1) Tucker (9-0)

2. (3) Kell (9-0)

3. (5) Gainesville (8-1)

4. (6) Thomas County Central (8-1)

5. (7) Creekside (9-0)

6. (8) Ware County (8-1)

7. (NR) Warner Robins (8-1)

8. (2) Northside-Warner Robins (8-1)

9. (10) North Paulding (8-1)

10. (NR) South Paulding (8-1)

Class AAAA

1. (1) Sandy Creek (8-0-1)

2. (3) Griffin (9-0)

3. (4) Monroe Area (9-0)

4. (2) Carrollton (9-0)

5. (8) Marist (7-2)

6. (9) Burke County (6-2)

7. (10) Wayne County (8-1)

8. (5) Statesboro (8-1)

9. (NR) Stockbridge (8-1)

10. (NR) Westover (7-2)

Class AAA

1. (1) Buford 9-0)

2. (2) Cartersville (9-0)

3. (3) Washington County (9-0)

4. (4) Carver-Columbus (8-1)

5. (5) Callaway (8-1)

6. (6) Elbert County (7-2)

7. (7) Hart County (8-1)

8. (8) Woodward Academy (8-2)

9. (9) Appling County (7-2)

10. (NR) Blessed Trinity (6-3)

Class AA

1. (1) Lamar County (9-0)

2. (2) Lovett (8-1)

3. (3) Greater Atlanta Christian (9-0)

4. (4) Washington-Wilkes (9-0)

5. (5) Calhoun (8-1)

6. (6) Benedictine (9-0)

7. (7) Brooks County (8-1)

8. (8) Bowdon (9-0)

9. (9) Jefferson (7-2)

10. (10) Vidalia (8-1)

Class A

1. (1) Eagle’s Landing Christian (8-0)

2. (2) Aquinas (9-0)

3. (3) Seminole County (9-0)

4. (4) Johnson County (9-0)

5. (7) Clinch County (6-3)

6. (8) Mount Pisgah Christian (9-0)

7. (NR) Irwin County (7-1-1)

8. (6) Landmark Christian (8-1)

9. (9) Prince Avenue Christian (8-1)

10. (NR) Calvary Day (7-2)

108 comments Add your comment

Warner Robins Demons

November 3rd, 2013
4:04 pm

It’s great to be a Robins Demon…

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
4:09 pm

Two weeks and it’s on. I know a secret.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
4:36 pm

Courtesy of Ocean Tiger =
Offensive PPG = North Gwinnett, 42.1
Marietta, 41.2
Mill Creek, 40.9
Mceachern, 40.8
Hillgrove, 38.9
Lovejoy, 38.7
Collins Hill, 38.3
Langston Hughes, 36.8
W. Forsyth, 36.0
Peachtree Ridge, 35.4

Defensive PPG
Langston Hughes, 7.6
Tie
Alcvovy, 11.7
Colquitt, 11.7
Camden, 12.4
Lowndes, 12.9
Westlake, 13.6
Lovejoy, 14.0
Tie
Collins Hill, 14.1
Valdosta, 14.1
Archer, 15.3

Point Differential
Langston Hughes, 29.2
Lovejoy, 24.7
North Gwinnett, 24.4
Collins Hill, 24.2
Mill Creek, 24.0
Mceachern, 23.2
Camden, 22.4
Lowndes, 19.5
Archer, 19.3
Peachtree Ridge, 18.7

Pay close attention. These stats matter and will play a role come playoff time.

Marietta fan

November 3rd, 2013
4:37 pm

Todd, where would you have put Marietta past the top 10. We have the same record as Peachtree Ridge and just beat number 8. We have beaten one of our top opponents and they haven’t although they have North Gwinnett this week. Just wondering.

Marietta fan

November 3rd, 2013
4:41 pm

Sportsnut assuming North Cobb beats Campbell and we beat Harrison, we will play Lovejoy again. Powerful offense vs good defense according to those stats. Should be a another great game.

Patriot Man

November 3rd, 2013
5:03 pm

Carrollton is not 9-0, as of last Friday!

Trojan94

November 3rd, 2013
5:12 pm

Well its game 10 rankings doesn’t matter now anytway time for some playoff football in two weeks.

yo

November 3rd, 2013
5:17 pm

@Sportsnut if those stats mattered then Lowndes would be feared and #8 ranked in the state. They aren’t either. So Sportsnut, you confess to us why those stats are skewed. They say confession is good for the soul. Colquit who beat Lovejoy wouldn’t even be in the top 10 by your “these stats matter”.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
6:01 pm

@ Yo == First of all, Lowndes is not in the top 10 in scoring. That in itself presents a problem. If you can’t score, you can’t win. What makes you think they would be ranked #8? When they were ranked, they lost to Newton.

There is nothing skewered about these numbers. These are rankings of a different kind. Wins and losses have nothing to do with this. This also has nothing to do with Colquitt beating Lovejoy. Region 1 has 4 teams in the category of PPG allowed. That is a reflection of you playing games that are low scoring. It does not matter who you played.

These stats matter because if North hits its average on you and you hit yours, you lose. Remember, “average” means they do this every week.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
6:25 pm

Do you not see what needs to be done vs. the teams on the top 10 PPG list? Surely you understand that to win, you must outscore the other team.

RobFromNorcross

November 3rd, 2013
6:32 pm

Sportsnut, The numbers you present are “skewered” by the fact that some teams play against good teams and others play mainly cupcakes. And it does “matter who you played” when evaluating a score regardless of what you say.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
6:52 pm

These numbers are what they are. There are no formula’s for this list, just what has happened. If that was the case, some teams would be penalized for playing the so-called cupcakes. This is a fact based list. I does not take into account that some teams played teams from a lower class. Nor does it take into account that some teams are ranked in the top 10 poll.

It is just as you see it. This you can’t argue with.

Old Bear

November 3rd, 2013
7:06 pm

Must be difficult to put a loss after Carrollton’s name…

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
7:15 pm

@ Yo == ScoreAtlanta has Lowndes ranked at # 10. That’s good, isn’t it?

@ RobfromNorcross == Must you oppose me on everything? I was just adding to the top 10 list so we could all see what everyone was doing.

High 5

November 3rd, 2013
7:34 pm

@Sportsnut I know the game is played on the field but numbers don’t lie. If I was a betting man and used your formula to place my bets on which team wins, I would probably win 80% of the time. I totally get your premise! Good stuff!

Swamp Lizard

November 3rd, 2013
7:38 pm

@ Sportsnut …. I appreciate Ocean Tiger posting these everyweek. I’ve seen first hand how much they mean ( looking at past State Champions & runner-ups ) and even though there will be “flaws” or “doubts” about a few in the top 10 …. the two playing for a State Championship will most likely be in these Top 10.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
7:41 pm

@ High 5 == I am not trying to say anything other than what it says. Thank you for being logical and accepting what is. By the way, they are done by Ocean Tiger. He keeps me updated on these things.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
7:45 pm

@ Swamp Lizard == I too appreciate him taking time to do this. That is why when I post it, I give him the credit. As you can see, the homerism comes out in some for no reason at all. I try to enlighten and I get flack. There is nothing to argue about on these numbers.

Old Bear

November 3rd, 2013
8:25 pm

Congrats to Monroe Area for overcoming the loss of several key starters, including the QB, to hold off a very good Chestatee team to remain undefeated.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
8:48 pm

@ Marietta Fan == It would be nice to have you back at 12 Oaks. I can’t say the team will be nice but we welcome you with open arms for a night of good football. After all, we are Lovejoy.

Marietta fan

November 3rd, 2013
9:12 pm

Sportsnut Does Lovejoy play Alcovy for the region championship this week? From the stats you showed earlier, it could be a great defensive game. I already respect Lovejoy after last year just so you know I’m not a Lovejoy doubter

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
9:14 pm

@ Old Bear == Carrolton was a big favorite this week by the AJC. They were sure of the opposite outcome.

Sportsnut

November 3rd, 2013
9:20 pm

@ Marietta Fan == Thanks for the acknowledgement. Yes it is for the region title. I am more confident now as opposed to earlier in the season. These young Cats are playing good football. Health has been an issue but everyone goes through that so I have not complained. Youth has been my worry.

Alcovy is just as young as we are. They have some athletes. Respect will be shown until 7:30 Friday.

NGHS 09

November 3rd, 2013
10:24 pm

I attended the Carrollton game and I’ll just be blunt about it…they need a new coach who isn’t afraid to open up the offense. The wing-T is great and all but the receiving routes in that offense are entirely predictable. Carrollton has a stout team, but the coaching is still as bad as it was in the 2010 title game. I witnessed that travesty as well. It’s amazing to me that a program with such a rich tradition of winning, TONS of money to throw around, and first class facilities hasn’t won a state title since 1998. BTW, Sandy Creek’s fans rock…Carrollton’s fans were silent after the first qrt. Carrollton could have won that game if their coaching was better.

yo

November 3rd, 2013
10:46 pm

So Sportsnut how good was Lovejoy at hitting it’s average in it’s one loss? How close were they to that point differential in that game? Come on Sportsnut……confess!!

yo

November 3rd, 2013
10:52 pm

Sportsnut the only reason you post those numbers is because it makes you feel better going into the playoffs. Talk about homerism. So you say “Pay close attention. These stats matter and will play a role come playoff time.” Please explain yourself. Based on the numbers you have listed above tell me how do you see the playoffs coming out. After all you say they matter.

Cool_Coach1

November 4th, 2013
4:30 am

Continue to omit Norcross from the AAAAAA conversation…it will be interesting to hear all the reasons why we got “lucky” again! The fact of the matter is whomever gets the #1or #2 seed from region 7 will most likely be no less than semifinal teams. All the tongue wrassling and conjecture shall soon be over and a Champion shall emerge…..WEARING BLUE!

Kate

November 4th, 2013
6:04 am

In headline on main page of AJC, headline says ‘mathcup’? Wow, I would love to see that — football players in a math contest. I clicked on the link, only to realize it was supposed to say “matchup.” Oh well…….wish the math part was true.

TruthSayer

November 4th, 2013
10:13 am

@Sportsnut……………I have never heard of “Ocean Tiger”, but do you know if he/she posts the same stats on the 5A programs as well?

Team Tigerblood

November 4th, 2013
10:14 am

WE
WE BELIEVE
WE BELIEVE THAT
WE BELIEVE THAT WE
WE BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN
WE BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN
WE BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN
WE BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#TigerNation

ALL TUCKERRED UP

November 4th, 2013
10:33 am

I miss JAB telling us how Stevenson should be in the top 10!!!!
Even he can’t make that joke. Oh well hopefully the will make
the playoffs.

SWGA

November 4th, 2013
11:06 am

Still no love for 1-AAAAA. TCC travels to Harris County for what will be a region title for TCC with a win (Harris County surprised TCC last year so anything is possible). A Harris County win and a Lee County win over Bainbridge would cause a three way tie for first in 1-AAAAA. Will definitely be checking the scores on AJC.com Friday night.

sportsut

November 4th, 2013
11:32 am

Enter your comments here

ITISWHATITIS

November 4th, 2013
11:57 am

Sportsnut,
Since you like stats, let’s breakdown Lovejoy shall we
Offense
Region: 46.2 ppg
Non-Region: 29.25 ppg

Defense
Region: 9.75 PA
Non-Region: 21.75

Point differential

Region: 36.45
Non-region: 8

Region play makes a difference when you look at all of the numbers. So based on these numbers you are correct they will matter come playoff time. ITISWHATITIS .

sportsut

November 4th, 2013
11:59 am

@Yo == Once again, this has nothing to do with Lovejoy. If you are so concerned about Lovejoy and it’s loss to Colquitt, Lovejoy had the ball inside the 5 with a minute left and did not get the job done due to playcallng. Bottom line is we lost. That was the 2nd game of the year, there was no average.

I post these numbers because they are relevant to the conversation. I don’t need these numbers to feel good about my team. If you have a problem understanding just what these numbers show and mean, then I can;t help you

Look and see how many schools are in all categories. These are the schools most likely to move on. I have no pick but Lovejoy.

@ Truth == I have not seen them from another class. I think maybe he/she is a AAAAAA fan..

sportsut

November 4th, 2013
12:09 pm

@itiswhatitis == Although this makes clear the difference between what Lovejoy has done against in and out of region opponents, it also make clear what my purpose was, to show what everyone is doing. Take the same formula and apply it to all the schools in the top 10 and you ill have a clear picture.

P.S. == Help Yo with this, please

RealisticFan

November 4th, 2013
12:27 pm

@For Class AAAAA only

MAXPREPS from last week rated each team in ever region and in every class. Looking at only the region AAAAA ratings it is interesting to see how they shake out by region. have a look how the top four from each region look and it gives a pseudo look at ranking the regions and how they relatively matchup during the playoffs.

REG1AAAAA. (Have the Maxpreps, 3rd, 8th, 17th, and 24th….rated teams among its top 4. If you add that up it is a total of 52. The lower the points total the better.

REG2: (1st, 12th, 13th, 15th……total of 41)…….Lowest in the state.

REG3: (16th, 25th, 38th, 47th……total of 126) …Highest or worst in the state.

REG4: (5th, 19th, 20th, 29th….total of 73)

REG5: (10th, 11th, 14th, 21st…total of 56)…….. Had 6 teams all in the top 32, most of any region

REG6: (4th, 7th, 23rd, 33rd….total of 67)…….only 5th best region according to Maxpreps)

REG7: (6th, 32nd, 36th, 37th…total of 111)……..had only 2 teams in the top 32.

REG8: (2nd, 9th, 18th, 27th…total of 56)………

Tells me that when matching up the regions for the first round that:

REG1 (52)….. Should crush REG3 (126)
REG2 (41)……is favored over REG4 (79)
REG5 (56)…..should dominate REG7 (111)
REG8 (56)……is a slight favorite over REG6 (67)

True a lot of factors come into play but I conclude three things from the numbers:
#1- Region 2 has the strongest 4 playoff entries
#2- Region 5 has the most top to bottom parity, because they have 6 of the top 32 teams
#3: Region 6, is NOT the best, toughest or the SEC of GA High School Football…..

Region 6…….. You still hold the title total for largest number of blog participants. :)

Here’s the link:

http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia-high-school-sports/2013/10/30/maxwell-ratings-buford-is-states-best-team-and-it-isnt-that-close/?cxntfid=blogs_georgia_high_school_sports

My2Cents

November 4th, 2013
12:46 pm

I think everybody is sleeping on Norcross. They lost to the # 1 team in the country and the # 1 team in the state when they were trying to figure out their offense. Now that their offense is improving it only helps an already killer Defense. They could possibly fall to a three seed and I know no 1 or 2 seed wants to see them early.

Collins Hill is another team that is hard to figure out. They beat the #1 & 4 teams in the state, but lost to Norcross. If they play like they have played in the last couple of weeks they will be very tough to beat.

sportsut

November 4th, 2013
12:59 pm

@My2cents == We are not sleeping on Norcross. Many of us realize that they had a rough start and they still have the respect of many. Until they are taken down, they still hold the Crown as the best in AAAAAA.

Trojan94

November 4th, 2013
1:07 pm

@NGHS 09 You’re right about carrollton needing a new coach but in this game as for the wing-t I can’t say it wouldn’t have worked because after the first drive this dummy didn’t give his runningbacks the ball but a total of five times. We avg 5 yards a pop on the first drive and he completely took them out of the game, how can you take your runningbacks out the game and your’re a running team just stupid.

WolfPack Nation

November 4th, 2013
1:18 pm

Love it RealisticFan!! Absolutely what most try to say but get ganged up on by the many many region 6 AAAAA bloggers! Couldn’t have said it better my self! Numbers never lie(; lol

5AReg6Fan

November 4th, 2013
1:25 pm

@RealistcFan – Good work in compiling your list. Would like to see what the numbers look like going into the first round of the playoffs. If you have the bandwidth, hopefully you can share these numbers. Also, I agree, REGION 6 has the most passion and vocal bloggers in ALL of 5A – Please present the award to our ole friend JAB. Surely, he will accepted on OUR behave. (LOL) Again, I see N. Paulding as a sleeper in this year’s run for the 5A title.

“WE ARE TUCKER” – Currently 9-0 & #1 in the REGION – The Tigers have been RELEASED!!!

REGION 6, the best in GA 2013 5A Football……

blu eagle

November 4th, 2013
1:29 pm

Desperate times call for well, here goes, go Lakeside Evans this week, Daddy needs to back into a region title!

OceanTiger

November 4th, 2013
2:24 pm

Dang, my nom de guerre made the AJC.

TruthSayer, I compile all these numbers each week for all the classes. Below is AAAAA’s updated information.

OFFENSE PPG
1. Tucker – 54.3
2. Gainesville – 51.7
3. North Paulding – 44.2
4. Allatoona – 43.3
5. South Paulding – 41.3
6. Northside-Warner Robins – 39.7
7. Creekside – 38.9
T8. Thomas County Central – 38.1
T8. Ware County – 38.1
10. Kell – 37.9

DEFENSE PPG
1. Stephenson – 9.9
2. Lee County – 11.6
3. Ware County – 12.4
T4. Creekside – 12.7
T4. Thomas County Central – 12.7
6. Gainesville – 13.4
7. East Paulding – 13.6
8. Northside-Warner Robins – 13.8
9. Kell – 14.0
10. Tucker – 14.2

DIFFERENTIAL PPG
1. Tucker – +40.1
2. Gainesville – +38.3
3. Creekside – +26.2
4. Northside-Warner Robins – +25.9
5. Ware County – +25.7
6. Thomas County Central – +25.4
7. Lee County – +25.2
8. Allatoona – +24.5
9. Kell – +23.9
T10. North Paulding – +22.5
T10. Stephenson – +22.5

Realist123

November 4th, 2013
2:24 pm

@”RealisticFan” and “Wolfpack Nation”……can’t argue with your numbers if we only go by MaxPreps.

Good analysis though; as long as we all recognize that these numbers can be manipulated and modeled in several “differing” ways to make our points. It’s just HS football so I won’t bore you with the fact that the confidence intervals of this MaxPrep data is less than 70%. The theories driving your analysis fail to take into account the many variables surrounding a HS football game.

In other words, the games will be played on the field. Verify the accuracy of your analysis after the first round. I won’t be surprised if your level of accuracy is <50%.

Truth Sayer

November 4th, 2013
2:34 pm

@Ocean Tiger….Thank you very much! Appreciate the feedback.

@Realist123…. Well said. ‘And to be honest we could apply the same thinking to Ocean T’s #’s too.

Right?…..because the level of compo. is not even across the regions I would say.

@5AReg6Fan….LOL. JAB is going to get you for that comment…..but you are right. He is the King of the Blogs :)

WolfDawg

November 4th, 2013
2:43 pm

Imagine how much better Gainesville’s stats would look if not destroyed by 24 points by the states BEST team… Well the BEST as supported by statistics published last week (since this thread is all about stats!!)

@SWGA – Figure it out yet?? :)

Terry

November 4th, 2013
2:50 pm

Put Brooks county on the map 8-1 baby

WolfDawg

November 4th, 2013
2:51 pm

That be the Wolves from Buford!!!

Lion's Den

November 4th, 2013
3:32 pm

MLK has (3) regular season losses, which is a first, this is NOT Lion football. However, would be able to take it on the chin if the guys played hard the entire game. The team quit at the end of the Tucker game, not acceptable. The new guy must go, he’s a SWD grad anyway. We need some Lion blood on this coaching staff…..time to hire one of our recent college grads; Kight or somebody to keep the Lion Pride in the program!