Maxwell Ratings: Projected margin of victories for Week 11 games

Here is this week’s schedule with projected margins of victory, courtesy of the Maxwell Ratings. The projected winner is on the left. The projected margin of victory is on the right. The Maxwell computer ratings take into account historical scores, weighing the more recent seasons the most heavily. Games involving out-of-state teams are not included because of lack of data on those opponents.

Thursday’s games

Crisp Co. at Albany -19

Houston Co. vs. Jones Co. -13

Kendrick vs. Jordan -27

Savannah vs. Brantley Co. -4

Friday’s games

Adairsville at Gordon Central -40

Alexander at Columbus -30

Allatoona vs. North Paulding -2

Alpharetta at Centennial -27

Americus-Sumter vs. Dougherty -25

Aquinas vs. Georgia Military -38

Archer at Grayson -13

Athens Academy vs. Hebron Christian -29

B.E.S.T. Academy vs. Rockmart -11

Bacon Co. vs. Atkinson Co. -22

Baldwin at West Laurens -8

Benedictine at Jeff Davis -41

Bleckley Co. at Monticello -20

Bremen vs. Temple -36

Brookstone at Central, Talbotton -38

Brookwood at South Gwinnett -7

Bryan Co. at Metter -2

Buford vs. East Hall -41

Burke Co. vs. Butler -41

Cairo vs. Monroe -9

Calhoun at Model -27

Calhoun Co. at Randolph-Clay -7

Callaway at Douglass -40

Calvary Day at Portal -21

Camden Co. vs. Lowndes -5

Carrollton vs. Sandy Creek -13

Cartersville vs. Sonoraville -40

Carver, Columbus vs. Peach Co. -12

Cedartown vs. Gilmer -7

Central, Carrollton vs. Chapel Hill -15

Charlton Co. vs. Telfair Co. -18

Christian Heritage at Trion -3

Clarke Central at Winder-Barrow -31

Claxton vs. Jenkins Co. -30

Clinch Co. at Lanier Co. -35

Collins Hill vs. Duluth -40

Colquitt Co. at Coffee -22

Columbia at Stone Mountain -21

Cook at Berrien -18

Coosa at Armuchee -21

Creekview vs. North Springs -36

Dacula at Central Gwinnett -10

Dade Co. at Chattooga -10

Dalton vs. Southeast Whitfield -28

Darlington at Our Lady of Mercy -13

Dawson Co. vs. Fannin Co. -19

Decatur vs. McNair -35

Dooly Co. at Greenville -30

Dutchtown at Woodland, Stockbridge -11

Eagle’s Landing Christian vs. Pace Academy -35

Early Co. at Pelham -8

East Coweta vs. Douglas Co. -19

East Jackson vs. Franklin Co. -5

East Paulding vs. Lithia Springs -36

Eastside vs. Stephens Co. -7

Elbert Co. vs. Jackson Co. -31

Emanuel Co. Institute vs. Montgomery Co. -31

Etowah vs. Walton -2

Fayette Co. vs. Shaw -3

First Presbyterian vs. Warren Co. -39

Forest Park vs. Mount Zion, Jonesboro -19

Gainesville at Loganville -36

George Walton at Athens Christian -9

Glenn Hills vs. Hephzibah -25

Gordon Lee at Mount Zion, Carroll -4

Grady vs. Carver, Atlanta -7

Greater Atlanta Christian vs. Wesleyan -41

Griffin vs. Spalding -41

Grovetown vs. Greenbrier -33

Hancock Central vs. Twiggs Co. -14

Hapeville Charter vs. Cross Keys -23

Harris Co. vs. Hardaway -27

Hart Co. at Morgan Co. -22

Heard Co. vs. Spencer -23

Heritage, Conyers vs. Apalachee -27

Hillgrove at South Cobb -27

Hughes vs. Tri-Cities -33

Irwin Co. at Wilcox Co. -21

Jackson vs. Central, Macon -7

Jackson, Atlanta vs. Haralson Co. -17

Jefferson at Riverside Military -36

Jefferson Co. at Swainsboro -25

Johnson, Savannah at Beach -14

Johnson Co. at Wheeler Co. -31

Kell at Pope -34

King’s Ridge vs. Whitefield Academy -6

Lakeside, Atlanta vs. North Atlanta -18

Lakeside, Evans at Evans -16

Lakeview Academy at Towns Co. -6

Lamar Co. vs. Macon Co. -30

Lambert vs. Chattahoochee -5

Landmark Christian at Holy Innocents -15

Laney at Dublin -10

Lanier at Lumpkin Co. -27

Lassiter at Roswell -12

Lee Co. vs. Northside, Columbus -40

Liberty Co. vs. South Effingham -18

Lincoln Co. at Wilkinson Co. -14

Lovett vs. Westminster -26

Luella vs. Newton -2

Madison Co. at Walnut Grove -12

Manchester at Chattahoochee Co. -26

Marion Co. at Hawkinsville -13

Marist vs. Chamblee -33

Mary Persons vs. Veterans -9

McEachern at Harrison -15

McIntosh vs. Northgate -8

McIntosh Co. Academy vs. Long Co. -22

Mill Creek at Habersham Central -41

Miller Grove at Southwest DeKalb -3

Milton vs. Cherokee -8

Monroe Area vs. Chestatee -16

Morrow at Druid Hills -2

Mount Paran Christian at Walker -26

Mount Pisgah vs. Fellowship Christian -29

Mount Vernon vs. Strong Rock -4

Mundy’s Mill vs. Ola -21

Newnan vs. Westlake -1

North Cobb vs. Marietta -13

North Forsyth at Johns Creek -22

North Gwinnett at Mountain View -39

North Hall at Banks Co. -41

North Murray vs. Coahulla Creek -21

North Oconee at Oconee Co. -31

Northeast vs. Putnam Co. -15

Northside, W.R. at Warner Robins -18

Northview vs. Forsyth Central -22

Northwest Whitfield vs. LaFayette -35

Pacelli vs. Schley Co. -20

Parkview at Berkmar -8

Peachtree Ridge vs. Meadowcreek -41

Pebblebrook at Kennesaw Mountain -3

Pepperell at Murray Co. -37

Perry vs. Rutland -3

Pickens at River Ridge -16

Pike Co. vs. Henry Co. -15

Prince Avenue vs. Pinecrest Academy -24

Rabun Co. vs. Greene Co. -34

Richmond Academy vs. Cross Creek -31

Richmond Hill vs. Jenkins -28

Ridgeland vs. Heritage, Ringgold -17

Ringgold vs. Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe -38

Rockdale Co. vs. Alcovy -5

Rome vs. Villa Rica -15

Salem at Cedar Shoals -1

Savannah Christian vs. Savannah Country Day -5

Screven Co. at Josey -31

Seminole Co. at Miller Co. -37

Sequoyah at Cambridge -13

South Paulding at Paulding Co. -30

Southeast Bulloch vs. Tattnall Co. -5

Sprayberry vs. Osborne -3

St. Francis vs. North Cobb Christian -41

St. Pius at Blessed Trinity -2

Statesboro vs. Wayne Co. -12

Stockbridge at Locust Grove -23

Taylor Co. vs. Crawford Co. -40

Terrell Co. at Stewart Co. -38

Therrell at South Atlanta -5

Thomasville vs. Fitzgerald -9

Treutlen vs. Glascock Co. -27

Troup at LaGrange -9

Tucker vs. M.L. King -27

Union Co. at Social Circle -39

Union Grove vs. Drew -3

Upson-Lee vs. Jonesboro -3

Valdosta vs. Brunswick -18

Vidalia at Toombs Co. -30

Ware Co. at Bradwell Institute -31

Washington at Banneker -3

Washington Co. vs. Dodge Co. -41

Washington-Wilkes vs. Oglethorpe Co. -41

West Forsyth at South Forsyth -9

Westover vs. Worth Co. -24

Westside, Augusta at East Laurens -28

Westside, Macon at Howard -39

White Co. at West Hall -7

Whitewater vs. Starr’s Mill -10

Woodland, Cartersville vs. Hiram -5

Woodstock vs. Wheeler -4

Woodward Academy vs. Cedar Grove -11

Saturday’s games

Arabia Mountain at Dunwoody -19

Effingham Co. at Groves -26

Glynn Academy at Windsor Forest -40

Lithonia at Redan -21

Stephenson vs. Mays -21

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57 comments Add your comment

Mountain Man

October 31st, 2013
6:45 am

West Hall will win by 2 touchdowns.

stooge

October 31st, 2013
6:55 am

The guys have had it drilled into their heads to treat Coffee the same as Hoover(hopefully not with the same results!) and forget everything else. Barring turnovers or penalties like the ones that almost cost us the Valdosta game we should be fine. Go Packers!

Team Tigerblood

October 31st, 2013
7:12 am

Thanks Maxwell. you and Slim Jim might be the only ones outside of Tiger Nation who believes Archer can beat Grayson

Fred

October 31st, 2013
7:31 am

@Team Tigerblood – It will depend on which Grayson team comes to play – the team that has great athletes and is playing together or the team that looks like a sandlot team that got together and said “Hey! Let’s play a game!” Then add in a rivalry game and all bets are off! I hope it is as good a game as it has the potential to be. See you there!

AVikingFan

October 31st, 2013
7:44 am

Good luck to yore Rams Fred. We will have our hands full down on the coast with Camden in the Bottom Right Hand Corner! Hope my Vikings and your guys both pull out needed wins! We’ve never won in the BRHC, but here’s hoping we change that this week.

WolfPack Nation

October 31st, 2013
7:57 am

NorthPaulding is in 1st in region 5AAAAA and we are still underdogs. No respect and we like it like that. Keep us underdogs!!

DeeDawg

October 31st, 2013
8:00 am

Wow…Tucker by 27 over MLK? What say you MLK bloggers?

Lil Brother

October 31st, 2013
8:52 am

Good Luck North Cobb, Ware Co, Clinch Co, and praying for Coffee’s survival..

Yawner

October 31st, 2013
8:59 am

Wow indeed.. #2 Carrollton over #1 Sandy Creek by 13 in AAAA

Eyes wide open

October 31st, 2013
9:13 am

No way Lambert playing “Daddyball” beats Chattahoochee by 5.

MIGHTY LION KING

October 31st, 2013
9:17 am

@DeeDawg- i say AJC or is it MAXWELL gonna have some DEEP apologizing to do after friday night..TUCKER win by 27 ?? yea right..And then they woke up lol.. This is KING we talkin bout.. Even if this is our rebuilding yr, 27 lol.. they be lucky to get 14.. MLK gonna go hard on friday!! Dont believe me, watch this!!!

LION NATION/ THE DOMINATION!!!!

TuckerD

October 31st, 2013
10:09 am

Don’t get offended MIGHTY LION KING, ya’ll just need to be ready its going DOWN.

Slim Jim

October 31st, 2013
10:23 am

I have Archer by 7.

But I’m with you Tigerblood. I believe in Archer. So dynamic. You’ve been to their games, are they as good as I’m seeing on tape?

Everyone will find out soon enough. If not this week then the playoffs. I have no connection to Archer, but I know a great team when I see one.

WARRIORNATION

October 31st, 2013
11:04 am

Really, Milton by 8 over Cherokee, If anyone else knows this, we own Milton and to put it plainly we have one of the best QBS in the state and he is only a junior, Spencer Ashley, 70% comp. 2100 yards passing 18 tds 4 ints. Not to mention 2 back with almost 1,000 yds rushings and a receiver over 1,000 and 8 tds. Gotta do alittle more research before you predict. CHEROKEE BY 7.

Team Tigerblood

October 31st, 2013
11:09 am

@Slim Jim
They are as advertised. Humble/Hard-Working kids that dont care who gets the print/credit. Coach Dyer is a phenomenal Coach with experience coaching under Coach Cronic (East Coweta) and Coach Hunter (Brookwood). Friday nights on New Hope Road are a great place to be! WE ARE ARCHER!!!!!

Sportsnut

October 31st, 2013
12:06 pm

I went 2-2 on my first time trying. Since we are off this week, I will again venture into the world of prognosticating.
Brunswick will give Valdosta a game. The 2nd season is on the line. Brunswick, 17-14

Camden wants region to continue their run. Lowndes is in turmoil, but winning. Lowndes, 24-10

Alcovy has it’s eye’s on the region crown. Win out and they get it. Rockdale is trying to get in. Alcovy, 28-17

Cherokee and Milton, both need it. Give me Cherokee, 35-28
Etowah and Walton. Etowah, 30-17
N. Cobb and Marietta, Marietta wants to come to 12 Oaks. Not this year. N.Cobb 45-20

Sportsnut

October 31st, 2013
12:29 pm

Archer is only a 13 point favorite over Grayson? We are talking about the same Archer, aren’t we? Region winner in a landslide. Top 5 State ranking.

FarTrain

October 31st, 2013
12:34 pm

That Northside/WR over WR by 18 is really funny. NS will probably win it but more lie by 3-7 points, NOT 18. If WR had not gotten beat last week, might agree with it, but they now have something to prove. NS, not so much. Would not even be surprised at a WR upset. Anything can, and has happened in this game.

Divided

October 31st, 2013
12:58 pm

Whoa AJC, are you proof-reading your predictions? Or, is it that you simply have a weird sense of humor?

NSWR by 18 over WR and Tucker by 27 over MLK?? Really?? No way are either of these close to being correct.

I’m “Divided” because I have nephews that both play for MLK and Tucker so I always pull for both regardless of who they play until they met for the 1st time last year. So in this game I dont have a favorite, but I do have a thorough understanding of where each team is right now and there is no 27 point delta between these two teams. Did you not mean to say 7? even 17 is a stretch! Both teams have issues on offense, but both can be nightmares for the opposing team on defense. No one in this game scores 27 points. I see the winner with a maximum of 3 TDs while giving up at least1 TD.

As far as my old hometown of Warner Robbins, dont think for one minute that they are going to lie down for NSWR. This is more than an in-town rivalry, this is an across the street – barbershop thrash talkin – rivalry. Both teams play like this is the state final every year. No one scores more than 2 TDs here which should only come on “big” plays that catches the other off guard. This is going to be a defensive battle for the ages.

Check your predictions more clearly in the future please!

Slim Jim

October 31st, 2013
1:09 pm

Personally, I dig the bold predictions by the AJC. If they think a team is stronger, they are predicting the game with conviction.

How easy would it be for them to predict all the games to be close? History says otherwise. Sure would make for boring predictions and talking points. It would also make them look lazy predictions.

It’s not Las Vegas, and it’s not the NFL.

High School games are as unpredictable as any. Good for you AJC for not being afraid to have a stance. If we, as fans, cry about them that’s our problem.

Wolf Dawg

October 31st, 2013
2:09 pm

Nut – Archer is a very young program… Not used to the big stage. So if they win by 1 or 21 they are still in a growing stage.. Very talented, they are.. How they handle the pressure of being a fav is all new to them…

On a side note…. Kinda funny or should I say, my how time flies that it was not too long ago the same was said about Grayson.. They are only like 14 years old & Archer is like 4, I might be a year off or so..

Wolf Dawg

October 31st, 2013
2:12 pm

Mountain Man – I just hope the Spartans win the game.. I like that they have made the turn around thay have.. Been 11-12 seasons since they made the post season…

You aren’t kin to the Mountain Man that had the old school bus on the tracks at Atlanta Hwy & Phil Niekro are you??? Best BBQ & fresh tomatoes around!!!

Creek Rising!!!

October 31st, 2013
4:50 pm

If Carrollton beats Creek by two TD’s I’m taking you with me to Vegas!!!
They have played four times and each time Carrollton’s offense did less than the time before.
This must be a computer analysis based on scores against other teams.
Creek wins by 20+

TROJAN FAN

October 31st, 2013
5:49 pm

@creek rising –Like you confidence. Before I saw this I was thinking Carrollton should be at least a 10 point favorite. You’re right! Other than the Championship game in the Dome, the games haven’t been very competitive. If Carrollton doesn’t play too conservative, I think it’s our year. Send me your Amex # so I can book my flight. (by the way are you giving me 20 points)

PatriotKen

October 31st, 2013
6:37 pm

Patriots and Trojans: Let’s play the game! My only concerns tomorrow night are whether I can find a parking space, and if Carrollton will have my Pepsi products in their concession stand! GO PATRIOTS !!! (maybe Vegas in 2014).

TROJAN FAN

October 31st, 2013
6:52 pm

Sorry @PatriotKen — I’m pretty sure you’ve got to go Coke! Hope Y’all show up like you usually do. Grisham Stadium hasn’t really “Rocked’ since the playoffs last year. As you know not everyone travels like WE do. Get here early! Park at the Elementary School or Middle School (same road)!!! Looking forward to kicking your …. It should be fun! But, I am really tired of you people LOL

Eagle Dad

October 31st, 2013
7:28 pm

I guess I am missing something about Archer. Maybe I’m wrong, but it looks like not a single one of their opponents has a record above .500. Grayson looks like their strongest opponent to date, so why the surprise that Archer is only a 13 point favorite? Plenty of teams “look good on tape” when they are playing sub-par opponents. Can anyone name a single team they have beaten who is seriously considered a threat? I can give them some credit for being undefeated but it is not like they are blowing away good teams.

Eagle Dad

October 31st, 2013
7:31 pm

Pepsi products? I think that’s against state law, PatriotKen. Maybe you moved here from elsewhere like thousands of others did, but this is the birthplace of Coca-Cola. Glad to see Carrollton is upholding the law. LOL

Patriot Power

October 31st, 2013
8:37 pm

48-1-1. That’s the record of this senior class at the Creek. They don’t plan on adding any more digits to those last two slots. Sorry also Patriot Ken, I have to agree with Trojan Fan; Pepsi products should be illegal. :)

Suwanee 0wns

October 31st, 2013
9:10 pm

Whoa! PatriotKen, you need to go back to New York or Boston where you can root for the Yankees and drink your Pepsi products. You are not helping your team win any football games in Georgia.

Yankees are like hemorrhoids. The good ones come down and go back up. The bad ones come down and stay. If you choose to stay anyhow: don’t drink Pepsi products, and don’t ever tell us how you did things up north.

Camden74

October 31st, 2013
9:36 pm

All I have to say is………….RELEASE the CATS!!!! :-D

Ibleedblueandorange

October 31st, 2013
11:28 pm

It’s funny that Houston County beat Jones County 38-0, Houston county might have three in the brackets this year!

GwinnettDad

October 31st, 2013
11:37 pm

I’ll take South Gwinnett over Brookwood and the 7 points, for sure. SG can SCORE! I’m not sure Brookwood can, especially after their showing getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage by mighty Berkmar.

GwinnettDad

October 31st, 2013
11:39 pm

@Eagle Dad – I’m with you. I’ll take Grayson and the 13 points as well. Grayson at 4-4 isn’t any powerhouse this year, but I think they’ll be competitive.

Camden 79

November 1st, 2013
5:34 am

CAMDEN 17 LOWNDES 10 SAFE TRAVEL TO THE FOLKS FROM LOWNDES COUNTY

RealisticFan

November 1st, 2013
8:08 am

@wolfpack nation

Allatoona should be favored over North Paulding for the simple fact that Thr game is at Allatoona. Between the three….Allatoona, South and North……each with 1 loss, only north has lost a game out side the top three(new Manchester), and again only North lost on their home field.

I think that Fox 5 game of the week North Paulding @ Allatoona game turns out to be a great game. Could be one of the largest crowds in these parts all year. I see North jumping out to an early lead then Allatoonas running game will get its footing and it will end up with he team that avoids the big turnover will win.

Pack Nation wins its first Region Title 42-35…..and the rivalry becomes official tonight.

AboutRamTime

November 1st, 2013
8:16 am

I am with ya Fred with which team shows up as to how competitive Grayson will be tonight. The key for Grayson IMO is ball control (keep the Archer O off the field) and cut down on their own mistakes. If they can do that I forsee a competitive game. If not it could be North Gwinnett all over again.

AVikingFan

November 1st, 2013
9:20 am

Sportsnut – Brunswick hasn’t kicked a good extra point this season, let alone a field goal!

AVikingFan

November 1st, 2013
9:23 am

Where’s Dosta Dog and our friend 57 Cat????????

57Cat

November 1st, 2013
9:40 am

I’m here, AVikingFan. I’ve been trying all sorts of combinations to enable Brunswick to score 17 points. They can’t do it without kicking FG and 2 EP’s, which they haven’t done all year. Even WITH a kicking game, the Pirates will not score 17 on Valdosta’s defense. We will score at least 30 on their defense.

Camden1902

November 1st, 2013
9:56 am

Flip a coin on Lowndes vs Camden. Camden has not played well (at all.) To be quite honest (and I love Camden, I was stationed there for 7 years and still own a house in Kingsland) they should have lost last week against Brunswick. They had NO answer to Brunswicks offense. They looked awful. God love their QB but my 13 year old could complete more passes than him. Good wing T QB though. They will need to play mistake free football to beat Lowndes. We shall see. My prediction: Lowndes 17 Camden 14. 4th quarter fied goal finishes Camden.

Camden1902

November 1st, 2013
10:02 am

By the way, and off topic, did you guys know that the Boston Red Soxs’ shortstop, Drew, went to Lowndes? They said something about it during the series. Pretty cool.

Fred

November 1st, 2013
11:14 am

@AboutRamTime – Ball control as to holding on to the ball and not putting it on the turf! ;-) I’m sure I’ll have to stand in line to find out what the secret is to the tale of two teams we have seen this year. Lot’s of good athletes with good talent. I don’t get it. I wasn’t expecting 10-0 but I for sure wasn’t expecting 4-4 at this point. I sure hope we can hold the penalties to a minimum tonight.

rwdekalb

November 1st, 2013
11:24 am

That OL better do better at pass protection than previous games or Tucker just may blow Mlk out. That rmotional rivalry game with Stephenson is over. Mlk will have to show what they are really made of tonight.

AboutRamTime

November 1st, 2013
11:50 am

@ Fred We need to control it by holding onto it as well. Going into the season I honestly had them finishing 5-5 simply based on the loss of so much talent and how youthful the O line was going to be. Like you said there is alot of talent in the program and I am confident they will be back on track in 2014. As for tonight Grayson has got to show more discipline (self control) as most of the players on both teams have played with each other in GFL over the years. I believe it’s going to get chippy out there tonight and I just hope our players stay clear of that nonsense.

5-Time

November 1st, 2013
1:29 pm

That is correct!! All three of the Drew brothers went to Lowndes!! As a matter of fact, J.D. Drew and I were in the same weightlifting class together back in 94!! Those were the good ole days…

5-Time

November 1st, 2013
1:56 pm

Wrong!! There’s been a mistake on my part!! It was Tim Drew that was in my weightlifting class.Not J.D. Drew. My memory is a little off!!

Camden1902

November 1st, 2013
2:00 pm

@ 5-Time. Very Cool!!!

57Cat

November 1st, 2013
2:06 pm

I think J.D. was the oldest, Stephen, the middle, and Tim the youngest. They are very distant relatives, not near enough to be left in their wills :-) .

Tipp Smooth

November 1st, 2013
2:22 pm

Let’s go Camden, mistake free Ball tonight, special teams show
up too….