AAAAAA odds: Maxwell pegs Tift, North Gwinnett as favorites

Here are the Maxwell Ratings’ computer-generated odds of winning the state championship for each of the 64 Class AAAAAA boys and girls playoff teams.

The odds are based on team strength, but also the difficulty of each team’s draw. For example, in the girls draw, second-ranked Parkview might play third-ranked Norcross in the second round. That hurts their chances, while helping the chances of No. 1-ranked North Gwinnett. Hillgrove’s boys, though seeded second from its own region, have a decidedly easier path than any other Top 10 team because of their light draw.

Here’s a definition of terms:

Rating = Strength of the team.

Draw = Strength of opponents this team might face. (Low number means a favorable draw.)

Wins=Number of times team would win out championship in 100 tries.

Odds = Chances of this team winning the title.

Here are the odds for other classifications:

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CLASS AAAAAA

BOYS

1. Tift County Rating: 97.04 Draw: 83.44 Wins: 29.29 Odds: 2.41

2. Norcross Rating: 90.53 Draw: 80.93 Wins: 15.03 Odds: 5.65

3. Hillgrove Rating: 89.53 Draw: 81.43 Wins: 12.72 Odds: 6.86

4. North Cobb Rating: 90.91 Draw: 84.04 Wins: 10.94 Odds: 8.14

5. Shiloh Rating: 86.49 Draw: 80.51 Wins: 8.26 Odds: 11.11

6. Peachtree Ridge Rating: 83.84 Draw: 82 Wins: 3.89 Odds: 24.74

7. Brunswick Rating: 81.99 Draw: 83.03 Wins: 2.22 Odds: 44.14

8. Westlake Rating: 85.15 Draw: 85.7 Wins: 2.1 Odds: 46.58

9. Archer Rating: 81.46 Draw: 82.49 Wins: 1.73 Odds: 56.83

10. Dacula Rating: 80.52 Draw: 82.85 Wins: 1.54 Odds: 63.86

11. Collins Hill Rating: 81.25 Draw: 83.57 Wins: 1.52 Odds: 64.88

12. Wheeler Rating: 80.12 Draw: 82.93 Wins: 1.36 Odds: 72.59

13. Berkmar Rating: 80.18 Draw: 82.78 Wins: 1.24 Odds: 79.58

14. Valdosta Rating: 80.43 Draw: 83.95 Wins: 1.13 Odds: 87.72

15. Druid Hills Rating: 79.23 Draw: 82.83 Wins: 1.1 Odds: 89.68

16. Morrow Rating: 81.53 Draw: 84.93 Wins: 1.09 Odds: 90.69

17. Campbell Rating: 79.4 Draw: 83.67 Wins: 0.98 Odds: 100.99

18. Chattahoochee Rating: 77.48 Draw: 82.21 Wins: 0.74 Odds: 133.66

19. Rockdale County Rating: 81.76 Draw: 86.03 Wins: 0.72 Odds: 138.39

20. Luella Rating: 76.61 Draw: 82.85 Wins: 0.48 Odds: 205.81

21. Alpharetta Rating: 77.35 Draw: 84.35 Wins: 0.41 Odds: 241.94

22. Coffee Rating: 78.93 Draw: 86.43 Wins: 0.34 Odds: 291.39

23. Douglas County Rating: 75.27 Draw: 83.62 Wins: 0.27 Odds: 364.22

24. Tri-Cities Rating: 74.12 Draw: 83.35 Wins: 0.19 Odds: 521.29

25. McEachern Rating: 78.06 Draw: 87.24 Wins: 0.18 Odds: 540.77

26. Centennial Rating: 73.45 Draw: 83.87 Wins: 0.12 Odds: 818.67

27. Newnan Rating: 75.34 Draw: 85.89 Wins: 0.12 Odds: 845.61

28. Meadowcreek Rating: 72.5 Draw: 83.34 Wins: 0.12 Odds: 853.88

29. Roswell Rating: 73 Draw: 84.61 Wins: 0.09 Odds: 1076.5

30. Lambert Rating: 70.71 Draw: 84.89 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 3231.29

31. Cherokee Rating: 70.09 Draw: 84.15 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 3700.9

32. Walton Rating: 68.32 Draw: 84.15 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 5709.14

GIRLS

1. North Gwinnett Rating: 103.16 Draw: 77.12 Wins: 53.6 Odds: 0.87

2. Norcross Rating: 97.03 Draw: 84.32 Wins: 17.49 Odds: 4.72

3. Parkview Rating: 94.64 Draw: 82.87 Wins: 12.16 Odds: 7.23

4. North Cobb Rating: 88.62 Draw: 80.59 Wins: 7.17 Odds: 12.95

5. Alpharetta Rating: 87.35 Draw: 87.35 Wins: 2.09 Odds: 46.76

6. Cherokee Rating: 84.52 Draw: 83.49 Wins: 2 Odds: 49.05

7. McEachern Rating: 80.94 Draw: 83.03 Wins: 1.16 Odds: 85

8. Alcovy Rating: 79.83 Draw: 78.79 Wins: 1.12 Odds: 88.56

9. Woodstock Rating: 81.56 Draw: 85.37 Wins: 0.63 Odds: 157.21

10. Duluth Rating: 82.82 Draw: 88.25 Wins: 0.54 Odds: 184.55

11. Tift County Rating: 76.55 Draw: 82.29 Wins: 0.39 Odds: 258.06

12. Hillgrove Rating: 77.5 Draw: 85.29 Wins: 0.31 Odds: 317.35

13. Hughes Rating: 75.84 Draw: 82.23 Wins: 0.3 Odds: 329.86

14. Mountain View Rating: 79.22 Draw: 86.74 Wins: 0.3 Odds: 336.61

15. Valdosta Rating: 76.84 Draw: 85.48 Wins: 0.25 Odds: 400.49

16. North Forsyth Rating: 78.53 Draw: 86.91 Wins: 0.23 Odds: 430.84

17. Douglas County Rating: 72.22 Draw: 82.95 Wins: 0.08 Odds: 1,207.53

18. Colquitt County Rating: 71.63 Draw: 85.79 Wins: 0.05 Odds: 2,212.59

19. Westlake Rating: 69.61 Draw: 83.44 Wins: 0.04 Odds: 2,600.44

20. Archer Rating: 70.39 Draw: 83.38 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4,363

21. Coffee Rating: 69.55 Draw: 84.4 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4,651.45

22. Campbell Rating: 68.02 Draw: 84 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 5,729.38

23. Newton Rating: 67.35 Draw: 84.08 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 6,388.19

24. Rockdale County Rating: 66.76 Draw: 83.83 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 10,373.81

25. South Forsyth Rating: 70.07 Draw: 88.7 Wins: 0 Odds: 27,378.33

26. Brookwood Rating: 66.17 Draw: 87.16 Wins: 0 Odds: 50,104.23

27. Luella Rating: 62.89 Draw: 84.82 Wins: 0 Odds: 63,545.03

28. Central Gwinnett Rating: 65.78 Draw: 88.55 Wins: 0 Odds: 64,615.8

29. Etowah Rating: 63.17 Draw: 83.47 Wins: 0 Odds: 88,262.88

30. Lambert Rating: 60.23 Draw: 85.71 Wins: 0 Odds: 362,047.35

31. Wheeler Rating: 60.74 Draw: 89.65 Wins: 0 Odds: 1,225,022.61

32. East Coweta Rating: 48.14 Draw: 85.13 Wins: 0 Odds: 59,415,800.56

12 comments Add your comment

x supporter

February 19th, 2013
9:53 am

Coffee girls have been luck to win despite having a “idiot” for a coach. Being #4 out of 6 to go to State is a joke anyway.
.

TopShelf

February 19th, 2013
10:02 am

Todd I don’t see information on Valdosta in the boys section.

Shaunster

February 19th, 2013
10:21 am

What does Hubert Green think of this?

He’s a lot smarter than either the computer or Maxwell.

South Georgia Coach

February 19th, 2013
10:43 am

@TopShelf I think they have colquitt listed where it should read valdosta. Because Colquitt boys didnt make it.

WarriorCome2Play

February 19th, 2013
11:20 am

The beauty of sports is that the computers, bloggers, etc. don’t matter once the ball goes up. Let’s Go Lady Warriors and Warriors. North Cobb Baby!

WarriorCome2Play

February 19th, 2013
11:26 am

I pray that the batch of refs that officiated the Class 6 Region 4 (NCobb/Mceachern/Hillgrove/Campbell) girls games goes back to Footlocker. They must have thought they were doing a rugby match. There was tackling, body slamming and no fouls called. Then when girls get emotional he wants to eject the player. GHSA please make sure the refs are qualified to officiate tourney games. It was bad on both sides. Girls got injured all weekend because they didn’t take control of the game early.

Todd Holcomb

February 19th, 2013
1:20 pm

Colquitt County was included instead of Valdosta. I’ll get Loren to switch that out and re-calculate.

I guess that means Colquitt County’s odds are even greater than the listed 171,359-to-1. :)

Todd Holcomb

February 19th, 2013
1:23 pm

”The beauty of sports is that the computers, bloggers, etc. don’t matter once the ball goes up. Let’s Go Lady Warriors and Warriors. North Cobb Baby!”

Agreed! These are meant for entertainment purposes only. But I think it’s neat to have a solid computer model to analyze the scores and make these projections. I doubt you’ll see anything like it for the other 49 state tournaments in the U.S. of A.

Todd Holcomb

February 19th, 2013
1:24 pm

”What does Hubert Green think of this? He’s a lot smarter than either the computer or Maxwell.”

He’s smarter than I am, too. I’d love for him to chime in.

WarriorComeOut2Play

February 19th, 2013
4:01 pm

Todd Holcomb please don’t confuse that comment with criticism of your projections. I take my hat off to the job AJC has done this year especially on the girls side. Our daughters appreciate the love. I was speaking to different people who get on here and trash and bash teams. Keep up the good work.

Todd Holcomb

February 19th, 2013
4:53 pm

Thanks, Warrior. And understand that these aren’t my ratings. They’re done by someone who’s very experienced in the subject of mathematics. That would not be me.

btw, new odds for AAAAAA boys have been posted to accommodate Valdosta.

HENJAMCOL

February 20th, 2013
5:17 pm

LISTEN FOLKS I KNOW THIS IS FOOTBALL COUNTRY, BUT BASKETBALL DOES’NT GET ANY RESPECT IN THIS STATE. THERE ARE SOME VERY GOOD B-BALL TEAMS HERE & THEY GET NO ATTENTION FROM THE AJC. I LIVE IN COBB COUNTY & THE MARIETTA DAILY JOURNAL IS A JOKE WHEN IT COMES TO BASKETBALL.NORTH COBB HAS DONE A GREAT JOB THE LAST 2 YRS. YOU WOULD THINK THEY’ED BE MENTIONED IN AN ARTICLE OR 2, THE B-BALL TEAMS HERE IN THIS STATE DESERVE WAY MORE ATTENTION.