AAA odds: Computer sees Buford as boys, girls teams to beat

Here are the Maxwell Ratings’ computer-generated odds of winning the state championship for each of the 64 Class AAA boys and girls playoff teams.

Maxwell’s simulations point to a boys and girls sweep by Buford, with the boys winning 18.8 of 100 trials and the girls winning 48.4 of 100. Washington County also has a fair shot at a sweep, with the boys winning 15.86 of 100 and the girls winning 12.85 of 100.

The odds are based on team strength, but also the difficulty of each team’s draw.

Here’s a definition of terms:

Rating = Strength of the team.

Draw = Strength of opponents this team might face. (Low number means a favorable draw.)

Wins=Number of times team would win out championship in 100 tries.

Odds = Chances of this team winning the title.

Here are the odds for other classifications:

AAAAAA

AAAAA

AAAA

AAA

AA

BOYS

1. Buford Rating: 84.76 Draw: 74.42 Wins: 18.8 Odds: 4.32

2. Washington County Rating: 84.35 Draw: 74.67 Wins: 15.86 Odds: 5.3

3. Thomson Rating: 81.42 Draw: 71.17 Wins: 14.59 Odds: 5.86

4. Morgan County Rating: 82.53 Draw: 72.44 Wins: 14 Odds: 6.14

5. Savannah Rating: 80.07 Draw: 72.56 Wins: 8.26 Odds: 11.11

6. Johnson (Savannah) Rating: 78.14 Draw: 71.2 Wins: 7.17 Odds: 12.95

7. Woodward Academy Rating: 76.9 Draw: 74.62 Wins: 4.27 Odds: 22.43

8. North Hall Rating: 78.07 Draw: 76.02 Wins: 3.96 Odds: 24.26

9. Cartersville Rating: 77.57 Draw: 76.37 Wins: 3.71 Odds: 25.96

10. Dodge County Rating: 76.03 Draw: 77.7 Wins: 1.85 Odds: 53

11. Central (Macon) Rating: 75.06 Draw: 77.53 Wins: 1.5 Odds: 65.66

12. St. Pius X Catholic Rating: 73.31 Draw: 76.35 Wins: 1.23 Odds: 80.2

13. Cedar Grove Rating: 73.26 Draw: 76.72 Wins: 0.98 Odds: 100.77

14. Henry County Rating: 73.53 Draw: 78.19 Wins: 0.83 Odds: 119.65

15. Carver (Columbus) Rating: 70.66 Draw: 75.89 Wins: 0.66 Odds: 151.47

16. Elbert County Rating: 71.55 Draw: 77.58 Wins: 0.55 Odds: 181.95

17. Franklin County Rating: 69.46 Draw: 75.08 Wins: 0.49 Odds: 202.28

18. North Murray Rating: 68.25 Draw: 75.22 Wins: 0.37 Odds: 270.74

19. Dawson County Rating: 67.78 Draw: 76.44 Wins: 0.23 Odds: 438.93

20. East Hall Rating: 67.15 Draw: 77.58 Wins: 0.13 Odds: 761.03

21. Swainsboro Rating: 66.1 Draw: 76.8 Wins: 0.12 Odds: 802.27

22. Tattnall County Rating: 64.33 Draw: 74.5 Wins: 0.11 Odds: 945.73

23. Decatur Rating: 67.25 Draw: 77.78 Wins: 0.1 Odds: 987.41

24. Callaway Rating: 64.82 Draw: 76.18 Wins: 0.08 Odds: 1212.47

25. Hart County Rating: 62.94 Draw: 76.27 Wins: 0.05 Odds: 2151.09

26. Beach Rating: 63.25 Draw: 76.5 Wins: 0.04 Odds: 2316.52

27. Gordon Central Rating: 62.68 Draw: 75.87 Wins: 0.04 Odds: 2853.46

28. Douglass Rating: 60.81 Draw: 75.01 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 3950.59

29. Peach County Rating: 58.39 Draw: 75.77 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 12817.23

30. Ringgold Rating: 53.72 Draw: 78.2 Wins: 0 Odds: 225961.62

31. Rockmart Rating: 50.43 Draw: 77.53 Wins: 0 Odds: 463977.21

32. Chapel Hill Rating: 50.58 Draw: 78.46 Wins: 0 Odds: 905123.58

GIRLS

1. Buford Rating: 89.35 Draw: 67.84 Wins: 48.54 Odds: 1.06

2. St. Pius X Catholic Rating: 80.17 Draw: 68.36 Wins: 14.22 Odds: 6.03

3. Washington County Rating: 76.62 Draw: 65.51 Wins: 12.85 Odds: 6.78

4. North Oconee Rating: 76.9 Draw: 67.15 Wins: 9.93 Odds: 9.07

5. Sonoraville Rating: 73.04 Draw: 69.13 Wins: 4.44 Odds: 21.53

6. Beach Rating: 71.39 Draw: 67.48 Wins: 3.9 Odds: 24.67

7. Chapel Hill Rating: 68.16 Draw: 66.61 Wins: 1.95 Odds: 50.41

8. Dawson County Rating: 69.75 Draw: 70.9 Wins: 1.49 Odds: 66.2

9. Southwest Rating: 65.58 Draw: 66.64 Wins: 1.15 Odds: 86.11

10. Decatur Rating: 64.84 Draw: 70.73 Wins: 0.44 Odds: 225.21

11. Elbert County Rating: 65.98 Draw: 70.73 Wins: 0.39 Odds: 255.87

12. Dodge County Rating: 61.74 Draw: 70.27 Wins: 0.21 Odds: 479.93

13. Tattnall County Rating: 59.62 Draw: 68.75 Wins: 0.13 Odds: 740.32

14. Peach County Rating: 58.85 Draw: 70.98 Wins: 0.07 Odds: 1405.61

15. Savannah Rating: 56.85 Draw: 69.21 Wins: 0.06 Odds: 1620.58

16. Central (Carrollton) Rating: 58.12 Draw: 70.13 Wins: 0.05 Odds: 1830.36

17. Pike County Rating: 56.63 Draw: 68.85 Wins: 0.05 Odds: 2061.06

18. Cartersville Rating: 57.1 Draw: 71.59 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4320.24

19. White County Rating: 57.8 Draw: 72.84 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4987.37

20. Woodward Academy Rating: 58.44 Draw: 74.02 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 6100.22

21. Douglass Rating: 52.55 Draw: 70.33 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 9086.9

22. Oconee County Rating: 55.21 Draw: 71.82 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 9341.19

23. Callaway Rating: 52.73 Draw: 69.72 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 11241.69

24. Blessed Trinity Rating: 55.69 Draw: 73.36 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 11309.36

25. Fannin County Rating: 54.26 Draw: 72.89 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 13439.21

26. Hart County Rating: 54.39 Draw: 72.86 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 14066.53

27. Swainsboro Rating: 51.49 Draw: 69.83 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 17519.12

28. Carver (Columbus) Rating: 51.92 Draw: 70.45 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 18576.99

29. Thomson Rating: 48.38 Draw: 70.08 Wins: 0 Odds: 54537.26

30. North Murray Rating: 50.69 Draw: 71.52 Wins: 0 Odds: 99561.51

31. Southeast Bulloch Rating: 46.65 Draw: 70.92 Wins: 0 Odds: 183478.1

32. Lakeview-Fort Oglethorpe Rating: 44.69 Draw: 73.6 Wins: 0 Odds: 1053889.55

14 comments Add your comment

Savannah hoopers

February 19th, 2013
11:12 am

This is funny. No going to bragg. Just watch and the best team will clearly show up. One game at a time. Computers dont play the game. Max prep has been wrong all year.

Todd Holcomb

February 19th, 2013
1:27 pm

Savannah hoopers – This aren’t MaxPreps’ rankings, fwiw. For me, I think Johnson is going to make the c’ship game. But I think Buford wins it. We’ll see. Would love to see a Savannah team win it, though. Great basketball tradition there has not been allowed to shine like it ought to while playing in the highest class. It’s Savannah’s time to shine again.

Bob

February 19th, 2013
4:37 pm

What a shocker. Buford favored to win both genders. I guess that’s what happens when your rosters have more transfer kids than kids actually from Buford. They’re one of the biggest reasons high school sports aren’t fun to watch anymore after the regular season. Six straight softball. Five of six football. Multiple final fours in baseball. Had won three straight in girls BBall before last year.Time to do something GHSA.

Savannah hoopers

February 19th, 2013
8:12 pm

We already beat johnson twice but that is the pasted. We will have 3 run over games at savannah high. Buford will have to travel almost 300 miles to play a team that is used to playing 5A. The travel alone will get to Johnson if they have to play two games on the road trust me I have seen them play and they are not a team. Savannah High has 3 straight region championship Bi-lo classic champs, Sweet 16 champs, Crawford Square champs, and State runner-up to Miton oh yea coach Boyd ? about players that is why he is gone. Like I said not going to bragg. We have played Tift Co also. We are battle tested. Jovante Spivey, Chris Chokely, Jorman Normal and Jermaine Williams are the most under rated players in the State. Savannah is more than just one player. Like I said we will see, and believe me it not even close the first 3 games. The road to the 3A will go through Savannah,Ga this year. We will have 4 home games rest not travel and well coach team and great kids who can play that why Atlanta-Select call down here asking us to join there program. Savannah do shine the last 2yrs we are 10-2 vs Atlanta teams. Just to give you a few we beat Westlake, North Cobb, Hillgrove, Mays, Alphratta, Rockmart etc.

joe

February 19th, 2013
8:25 pm

Don’t count out North Hall, Not only did they beat Buford Boys in Buford, but they also beat 3 teams that went on to be region champs from 3 different regions.

oldschoolrt

February 19th, 2013
9:58 pm

Bob you don’t understand Open Registration also, to bad it’s just the way it is in B-Town. You can enroll your kids, grandchildren, but they must have the grades. Buford is a city school with open registration which are in the rules and regulations with GHSA the last time I check, now good people of Georgia let’s put that debate to rest ok. So if you want change to a city school and you can do the same. If not let it go and stop crying and just support your program that’s all. Boy I Love Me Some Buford!! They Built It And We Came, you can do the same, get to work lol, Always Love And Peace To All, Later to All

Savannah hoopers

February 19th, 2013
10:00 pm

Savannah never count anyone out. One game at a time you just never no what you are going to get from 15,16,17 and 18 year old kids. Good luck to North Hall. Hope to see you in the final. Your team is like ours I guess its all about buford and in sav itz all about johnon.

ron

February 20th, 2013
4:44 am

place both computers on the floor and see how much action you get.

north ga granny

February 20th, 2013
8:14 am

Just give Buford the championships and the rest of us can all save gas money and stay at home.

happime2

February 20th, 2013
10:47 pm

Don’t count out Washington County Lady Hawks!!

jacket fan

February 23rd, 2013
12:23 pm

Oldschoolrt – while you are correct that GHSA rules do in fact show that Buford is not breaking any rules, Bob is right that the playing field is not level. Before you insult me too – understand that I am from Calhoun, the second most criticized team in North Georgia on the subject of open enrollment. I totally understand open enrollment. However, Bob is correct in his thinking that a team like Washington-Wilkes or Fitzgerald with less than 20,000 in the whole county are on a up high battle to beat Buford – from Gwinnett Co. with over 850,000 people in the county.

jacket fan

February 23rd, 2013
12:32 pm

Even if you account for the other schools in Gwinnett county, Buford has to be drawing from close to 50,000 students. You know, – yes you know that much of the the cream of the crop of those 850,000 folks are at Buford right now because they are winning. Let me put it this way, take Buford’s football coach and put him at say Lamar County, W-WIlkes, FItz, etc. and he would not have won the number of championships he has won. While Buford is not breaking GHSA rules, and not sure how GHSA can fix this, one is wrong to act like the Bob’s of the world are out of their mind.

Rizzo

February 24th, 2013
10:51 am

I am a Buford fan, (not a tuition parent) and I agree with jacket fan. We have the advantage of being in a populated county. Even if others had open enrollment, they don’t have the numbers to pull from like Buford does. I also agree that if we werent winning, they wouldnt be coming. If I had a kid who could possibly make it at the next level, I’d send them to Buford if only to give them the best possible shot at making it.
That being said, we are all still proud of Buford, from the facilities to the academics to the athletics. We are not the evil program or the “winning is everything” system these blogs have made us out to be. We welcome everyone with open arms, even if they’re not athletic (and there are more tuition kids not in athletics than those that are). I love my kid going to Buford and can’t imagine sending him to a mega school in gwinnett County. Every administrator knows every kid and who their parents are by name.

Rizzo

February 24th, 2013
10:53 am

Oh, and one more thing to all Buford fans. Recognize the advantage we have and stop bragging and showboating. It’s embarrassing to the rest of Buford. Show some dignity, whether we win or lose.