AAAA: Computer torn between Columbia, Eagle’s Landing; what about South Atlanta?

Here are the Maxwell Ratings’ computer-generated odds of winning the state championship for each of the 64 Class AAAA boys and girls playoff teams.

Maxwell sees the AAAA boys tournament as the most unpredictable of any draw this year. Eagle’s Landing wins 23.36 of 100 Maxwell simulations while three-time champion Columbia wins 21.13. South Atlanta, which beat Columbia in the Region 6-AAAA final last week, wins 12.75 out of 100. A third Region 6 team, Marist, wins 10.04 out of 100.

The girls tournament is more clear-cut, according to Maxwell. Columbia wins 40.86 of 100. Next closest is region rival Redan, winning 16.41 of 100.

The odds are based on team strength, but also the difficulty of each team’s draw.

Here’s a definition of terms:

Rating = Strength of the team.

Draw = Strength of opponents this team might face. (Low number means a favorable draw.)

Wins=Number of times team would win out championship in 100 tries.

Odds = Chances of this team winning the title.

Here are the odds for other classifications:

AAAAAA

AAAAA

AAAA

AAA

AA

BOYS

1. Eagle’s Landing Rating: 92.92 Draw: 80.34 Wins: 23.36 Odds: 3.28

2. Columbia Rating: 92.44 Draw: 79.9 Wins: 21.13 Odds: 3.73

3. South Atlanta Rating: 89 Draw: 79.52 Wins: 12.75 Odds: 6.84

4. Marist Rating: 88.04 Draw: 79.44 Wins: 10.04 Odds: 8.96

5. Jonesboro Rating: 87.09 Draw: 81.54 Wins: 7.81 Odds: 11.8

6. Glenn Hills Rating: 85.25 Draw: 84.31 Wins: 3.6 Odds: 26.74

7. Statesboro Rating: 84.28 Draw: 83.06 Wins: 3.48 Odds: 27.76

8. Alexander Rating: 83.07 Draw: 80.68 Wins: 3.17 Odds: 30.59

9. Monroe Rating: 82.02 Draw: 81 Wins: 2.67 Odds: 36.47

10. Westover Rating: 82.49 Draw: 83.04 Wins: 2.18 Odds: 44.93

11. Fayette County Rating: 81.57 Draw: 80.98 Wins: 2.09 Odds: 46.85

12. Rutland Rating: 81.14 Draw: 81.24 Wins: 2.07 Odds: 47.31

13. Grady Rating: 80.97 Draw: 82.45 Wins: 1.7 Odds: 57.91

14. LaGrange Rating: 80.2 Draw: 80.15 Wins: 1.31 Odds: 75.29

15. Butler Rating: 79.63 Draw: 83.82 Wins: 0.76 Odds: 130.79

16. Westside (Macon) Rating: 80.15 Draw: 85.52 Wins: 0.74 Odds: 133.69

17. Shaw Rating: 77.99 Draw: 84.65 Wins: 0.44 Odds: 225.26

18. Johnson (Gainesville) Rating: 76.44 Draw: 84.96 Wins: 0.25 Odds: 397.82

19. Perry Rating: 76.24 Draw: 84.23 Wins: 0.22 Odds: 444.16

20. Baldwin Rating: 73.89 Draw: 85.14 Wins: 0.1 Odds: 994.84

21. Northwest Whitfield Rating: 70.38 Draw: 84.57 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 2893.15

22. North Clayton Rating: 70.44 Draw: 85.45 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 3931.27

23. Eastside Rating: 69.15 Draw: 84.75 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4792.73

24. Crisp County Rating: 68.97 Draw: 85.21 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 6559.6

25. Albany Rating: 68.56 Draw: 85.21 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 9206.42

26. Liberty County Rating: 65.8 Draw: 84.31 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 16332.82

27. Dutchtown Rating: 65.54 Draw: 84.78 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 18328.1

28. Gilmer Rating: 64.94 Draw: 86.5 Wins: 0 Odds: 40562.24

29. River Ridge Rating: 62.41 Draw: 84.84 Wins: 0 Odds: 86810.21

30. Stephens County Rating: 62.05 Draw: 84.2 Wins: 0 Odds: 96597.24

31. Dalton Rating: 60.9 Draw: 85.91 Wins: 0 Odds: 209497.65

32. Madison County Rating: 53.85 Draw: 85.42 Wins: 0 Odds: 4531652.09

GIRLS

1. Columbia Rating: 88.78 Draw: 70.48 Wins: 40.86 Odds: 1.45

2. Redan Rating: 84.33 Draw: 73.29 Wins: 16.41 Odds: 5.09

3. Jonesboro Rating: 76.73 Draw: 68.98 Wins: 8 Odds: 11.5

4. Fayette County Rating: 80.43 Draw: 73.28 Wins: 7.68 Odds: 12.03

5. Cross Creek Rating: 78.59 Draw: 73.3 Wins: 7.03 Odds: 13.23

6. Mary Persons Rating: 74.8 Draw: 71.21 Wins: 4.1 Odds: 23.38

7. Sandy Creek Rating: 77.16 Draw: 74.96 Wins: 4.03 Odds: 23.8

8. Woodland (Stockbridge) Rating: 75.28 Draw: 74.08 Wins: 3.07 Odds: 31.54

9. LaGrange Rating: 73.57 Draw: 72.44 Wins: 2.13 Odds: 45.89

10. Monroe Rating: 70.19 Draw: 71.33 Wins: 1.5 Odds: 65.84

11. River Ridge Rating: 71.63 Draw: 73.39 Wins: 1.46 Odds: 67.35

12. Marist Rating: 72.1 Draw: 73.6 Wins: 1.18 Odds: 83.96

13. Columbus Rating: 70.53 Draw: 74.32 Wins: 0.95 Odds: 104.62

14. Howard Rating: 68.16 Draw: 73.3 Wins: 0.67 Odds: 149.22

15. South Effingham Rating: 65.52 Draw: 73.01 Wins: 0.29 Odds: 349.37

16. Chestatee Rating: 65.61 Draw: 75.52 Wins: 0.17 Odds: 591.68

17. Hephzibah Rating: 62.81 Draw: 74.65 Wins: 0.1 Odds: 1030.2

18. Madison County Rating: 65.93 Draw: 77.21 Wins: 0.1 Odds: 1031.76

19. Dougherty Rating: 62.27 Draw: 73.46 Wins: 0.08 Odds: 1187.12

20. Veterans Rating: 60.96 Draw: 73.84 Wins: 0.05 Odds: 1987.44

21. Grady Rating: 61.53 Draw: 75.41 Wins: 0.04 Odds: 2650.27

22. Americus-Sumter Rating: 62.19 Draw: 76.49 Wins: 0.03 Odds: 3003.03

23. Baldwin Rating: 61.49 Draw: 76.72 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 4041.69

24. Pickens Rating: 60.52 Draw: 76.13 Wins: 0.02 Odds: 6348.7

25. Griffin Rating: 57.13 Draw: 74.52 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 9876.68

26. Wayne County Rating: 57.46 Draw: 74.68 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 10443.82

27. Northwest Whitfield Rating: 58.27 Draw: 77.31 Wins: 0.01 Odds: 18031.28

28. Riverdale Rating: 54.83 Draw: 74.4 Wins: 0 Odds: 22733.47

29. Stephens County Rating: 55.56 Draw: 73.94 Wins: 0 Odds: 40274.32

30. Dalton Rating: 57 Draw: 78.4 Wins: 0 Odds: 55160.6

31. Cairo Rating: 50.8 Draw: 74.16 Wins: 0 Odds: 130618.47

32. Eastside Rating: 53.06 Draw: 78.76 Wins: 0 Odds: 275777.06

13 comments Add your comment

Eagle 1

February 19th, 2013
1:10 pm

When the smoke clears Columbia will win both State Tiltles!!

Manny fresh

February 19th, 2013
2:07 pm

Only if they not playing south atlanta in da finals yea I can see that but if they gotta see south Atlanta in the finals they in trouble it’s a mental thing with them now we just can’t beat them I kno they hoping and praying they don’t see us again

THE FAN

February 19th, 2013
3:33 pm

No respect for S. Atlanta, you guys at the AJC are true haters. We’ve been dealing with this since Derrick Favors was in high school, he was the best player in the country and never once did you guys ever give him any props. So way do we expect for you to change now, Keep up the good hating on the inner city. CLOWNS!!!!!!!

Brandon

February 19th, 2013
5:46 pm

No we been dealing with this since i was at SAH. When we had Vincent Banks. C/O 2003 representa.

Decatur 4 Life

February 20th, 2013
9:41 am

At some point you guys will realize that it has nothing to do with where your school is located, it has more to do with winning titles. Everyone knows S. Atlanta keeps a good program over there yall get respect but to get more you have to keep winning year in year out. I wanted to see Banks and company get a championship that year too nobody’s hating on S. Atl trust me.

Principal Skinner

February 20th, 2013
12:13 pm

@THE FAN

Vincent Banks. He was da TRUTH back in the day. Whatever happend to him?

Da Coach

February 20th, 2013
2:30 pm

With no relation to South ATL, I can attest that Vincent Banks was the truth back way back when. Didn’t he sign with Cincinatti and it ended up not working out? He could really play. Unlimited range on his jumper. That said, if a region 6 team wins it, it’ll be Marist or Columbia :) Look out for Jonesboro and of course EL too

KL Southside

February 20th, 2013
5:11 pm

South Atlanta is the hottest team in 4A right now. I can see them winning it all. I was impressed with the way they came back from an early deficit against Marist and hit clutch free throws at the end. I was really impressed on how they beat Columbia. Don’t know if Eagles Landing has faced stiff competition in 4A all year. Yet to be seen. Win or go home!

Manny fresh

February 21st, 2013
7:54 am

@dacoach u still hating on south atlanta I see how u figure it will b Columbia or Marist if we in da finals with Marist they don’t have a chance of winning.

Is That Right

February 21st, 2013
12:20 pm

@Manny fresh — didn’t Marist already beat South Atlanta once this year? I think they have “a chance of winning” if they play again. I expect S. Atlanta to make the Final Four, and they should beat Eagles Landing. Unfortunately, Columbia and Marist probably will have to play in the quarterfinals against each other — should be another dog fight between those teams (total margin of victory in 2 games this year is 3 points and 2 OTs). I wish the tournament would reseed the teams after the first two rounds, so that the best teams had a chance to be in the final four.

AAAA Fan

February 21st, 2013
12:32 pm

I wish they would seed the state bracket so that the state tournament is a REAL state tournament – like they do in football. The brackets should be set up so that teams from the same region would not have the possibility of playing each other again until the championship game. The way they do it right now penalizes teams from strong regions. I don’t care how far the teams have to travel to play the game..they do it for football, so I don’t understand why they don’t do it for basketball!

Is That Right

February 21st, 2013
1:03 pm

Agree re: seeding — but to cut down on travel in the early rounds, GHSA at least could re-seed after round 2. I’d rather see Columbia v. Marist in Final Fourt than in quarterfinal.

Decatur 4 Life

February 21st, 2013
1:20 pm

Manny, KL Southside- Be careful with Eagles Landing, that’s actually the only team in 4AAAA that I don’t want to see. Biggest reason is they’re hungry, if their coach doesn’t blow it for them they’ll be in the championship game hands down I’m just hoping someone sneaks them before then. They’ve had literally the same team for the past few years and each year they run into my Eagles in the semifinals so this year is going to be a lil difficult because they’re hungry and they want us bad!