Commerce over Jefferson was season’s biggest upset

Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.Commerce had season’s biggest upset

The regular season began with Commerce beating Jefferson. It ended with Loganville beating Gainesville. Five weeks later, Gainesville and Jefferson were holding state championship tropies, prompting at least a few people to ask: How did that happen? How did middling teams knock of eventual state champions?

We don’t have the answers, but we do have mathematical rating of the 25 most-hard-to-explain victories of the 2012 season.

These games may or may not have looked like upsets at the time. But looking back, they were.

Below, the computer Maxwell Ratings rate the Top 25 “Least Likely Results” as calculated using the end-of-season ratings, or basically the games that are the hardest to mathematically reconcile when comparing to the rest of the season.

The column to the far right shows the chances of the winning team winning if they played again.

Only one playoff game made it – No. 16.

Rank

Date

Team

Pts.

Opponent

Pts.

ProbW

1

8/31

Commerce

22

Jefferson

7

0.005

2

11/2

Loganville

46

Gainesville

41

0.036

3

10/19

Fayette Co.

38

LaGrange

35

0.074

4

8/31

Houston Co.

35

Harris Co.

23

0.110

5

10/5

South Cobb

27

North Cobb

26

0.148

6

9/28

Charlton Co.

32

Wilcox Co.

26

0.155

7

10/19

Pinecrest Acad.

29

George Walton

10

0.156

8

8/31

Calhoun Co.

36

Berrien

26

0.156

9

10/26

Woodward

20

St. Pius

14

0.206

10

11/9

Harris Co.

18

Thomas Central

12

0.208

11

8/31

Jackson

24

Mary Persons

23

0.220

12

11/9

Roswell

28

Walton

24

0.224

13

11/9

Riverside Military

35

Greene Co.

3

0.237

14

9/7

Chatt. Co.

36

Terrell Co.

34

0.243

15

9/21

Evans

24

Jefferson Co.

20

0.248

16

11/16

South Effingham

43

Westside (Macon)

33

0.253

17

9/7

Jeff Davis

35

Telfair Co.

21

0.255

18

9/21

Henry Co.

22

Luella

20

0.255

19

11/9

Josey

14

Westside (Aug.)

7

0.256

20

9/14

Swainsboro

44

Pierce Co.

41

0.256

21

9/7

Greenville

7

Manchester

6

0.257

22

9/14

Alcovy

24

Eastside

10

0.260

23

9/22

Westover

17

Monroe

14

0.261

24

10/20

Miller Grove

32

Stephenson

29

0.262

25

11/9

Flowery Branch

35

Gainesville

34

0.262

Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Produced by Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

One comment Add your comment

jvillebil

December 19th, 2012
10:22 pm

These are 25 reasons the game is played on the field. P.S. I did say I could explain the reason