Maxwell Ratings: Norcross’ odds jump after win over Camden; Buford leads tightly contested AAA

By LOREN MAXWELL

For the Journal-Constitution

With its victory over Camden County, Norcross came out of the clear favorite to win Class AAAAAA. The Blue Devils would win 656,875 of 1 million chances.

The most difficult to predict is AAA, which lost the No. 1-ranked team, Thomson, in an upset to Cartersville last week. Buford is the most likely champion, but wins less than half of the computer trials.

The definition for Cinderella teams was refined this week.  Cinderella teams are measured by the probability of their advancing utilizing the ratings before each round with the threshold being a probability of [ 1 / ( Round + 1) ] or less of still remaining.  For example, 0.250 is the threshold for three rounds as in the case of Class AAAAAA through AA and 0.333 is the threshold for two rounds as in the case of Class A.  The ratings prior to the round are utilized.

Additionally, the biggest tournament surprises have been added.  The surprise of an outcome is measured by the likelihood of the outcome utilizing the ratings prior to the round and the threshold is 0.333 likelihood.  Also, the surprise need not be an upset, but perhaps an unexpected close contest.

AAAAAA

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Lovejoy versus Norcross, 595,638 times

Cinderella teams:

North Cobb (0.160), Lovejoy (0.175), and Colquitt County (0.235)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/16 Marietta 30-27 @ Lowndes (0.227)

11/16 Brookwood 24-21 @ Lassiter (0.236)

11/30 @ Lovejoy 21-6 North Gwinnett (0.306)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Norcross

99.78

88.57

656,875

Lovejoy

89.02

93.07

224,999

Colquitt County

83.36

85.14

69,081

North Cobb

80.02

94.64

49,045

Region

Wins

7-AAAAAA

656,875

2-AAAAAA

224,999

1-AAAAAA

69,081

4-AAAAAA

49,045

3-AAAAAA

-

5-AAAAAA

-

6-AAAAAA

-

8-AAAAAA

-

AAAAA

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Gainesville versus Northside (Warner Robins), 410,447 times

Cinderella teams:

Whitewater (0.197) and Gainesville (0.235)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/23 Stephenson 35-6 @ East Paulding (0.167)

11/16 North Paulding 63-43 A Flowery Branch (0.204)

11/23 @ Harris County 31-21 Warner Robins (0.314)

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Northside

80.58

70.34

540,914

Gainesville

71.58

72.92

195,749

Whitewater

69.42

73.70

137,506

Ware County

70.06

75.60

125,831

Region

Wins

2-AAAAA

540,914

8-AAAAA

195,749

4-AAAAA

137,506

3-AAAAA

125,831

1-AAAAA

-

5-AAAAA

-

6-AAAAA

-

7-AAAAA

-

AAAA

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Sandy Creek versus Marist, 490,933 times

Cinderella teams:

Monroe Area (0.218)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/16 South Effingham 43-33 @ Westside (Macon), 0.064

11/16 Monroe 33-17 A Griffin, 0.193

11/16 @ Westover 26-21 Jonesboro, 0.267

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Sandy Creek

83.99

64.82

705,222

Marist

73.37

73.50

153,094

Ridgeland

72.45

74.21

131,580

Monroe Area

56.70

78.46

10,104

Region

Wins

5-AAAA

705,222

6-AAAA

153,094

7-AAAA

131,580

8-AAAA

10,104

1-AAAA

-

2-AAAA

-

3-AAAA

-

4-AAAA

-

AAA

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Buford versus St. Pius X, 321,211 times

Cinderella teams:

North Hall (0.175) and Cartersville (0.214)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/16 Hart County 32-11 @ Adairsville, 0.267

11/16 Johnson (Savannah) 32-23 @ Chapel Hill, 0.295

11/16 Rockmart 34-33 @ Appling County, .0326

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Buford

74.59

67.66

437,345

Cartersville

70.34

69.78

249,409

St. Pius X

65.56

68.38

173,020

North Hall

64.31

68.84

140,226

Region

Wins

7-AAA

577,571

5-AAA

249,409

6-AAA

173,020

1-AAA

-

2-AAA

-

3-AAA

-

4-AAA

-

8-AAA

-

AA

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Jefferson versus Calhoun, 655,129 times

Cinderella teams:

Lamar County (0.227)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/16 @ Brooks County 22-18 Macon County, 0.328

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Calhoun

83.34

63.04

779,044

Jefferson

66.58

68.89

149,547

Lamar County

61.58

76.84

45,183

Greater Atlanta Christian

56.66

73.85

26,226

Region

Wins

7-AA

779,044

8-AA

149,547

4-AA

45,183

6-AA

26,226

1-AA

-

2-AA

-

3-AA

-

5-AA

-

A-Public

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Lincoln County versus Emanuel County Institute, 538,494 times

Cinderella teams:

Dooly County (0.327)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/23 Trion 31-6 @Irwin County, 0.219

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Lincoln County

55.49

47.39

443,557

ECI

55.63

50.26

377,948

Wilcox County

48.49

53.77

130,945

Dooly County

41.49

54.39

47,550

Region

Wins

7-A

443,557

3-A

377,948

2-A

130,945

4-A

47,550

1-A

-

5-A

-

6-A

-

8-A

-

A-Private

Most Common Championship Matchup:

Prince Avenue Christian versus Eagle’s Christian Landing, 514,624 times

Cinderella teams:

George Walton Academy (0.127), Landmark Christian (0.230), and Prince Avenue Christian (0.236)

Biggest tournament surprises:

11/23 George Walton Academy 38-12 @ Aquinas, 0.307

Team Rating Draw

Wins

Eagle’s Landing Christian

65.32

50.49

667,432

Prince Avenue Christian

52.81

55.24

176,302

George Walton Academy

49.56

59.67

79,847

Landmark Christian

47.87

57.71

76,419

Region

Wins

5-A

743,851

8-A

256,149

1-A

-

2-A

-

3-A

-

4-A

-

6-A

-

7-A

-

41 comments Add your comment

VIKING DAD

December 3rd, 2012
2:38 pm

PACKERS 24 NORCROSS 21 NORTH COBB 21 LOVEJOY 17

VIKING DAD

December 3rd, 2012
2:38 pm

GO PACK GO!!!

"THE CANNON RULES"

December 3rd, 2012
3:24 pm

“Biggest tournament surprises: 11/23 Stephenson 35-6 @ East Paulding (0.167)”

How do you think WE feel? LOL!

Over a week now and anywhere you talk to folks out this way they can’t believe it. This EP team was (IS) loaded with talent. While many will be back next year as seniors EAST loses M.Hemphill who kicked the 61 yard field goal against STEPHENSON along with Kamani Thomas, Aaron Black & L. Suttles.

It’s always exciting to see who steps up and from this posters seat we were VERY proud of this years RAIDERS and their UNDEFEATED season and Region Championship.

TICK…TICK…TICK…BOOOOOOOOOOM!!
GO RAIDERS!!!!

NoDistrictLinesInDekalb

December 3rd, 2012
4:04 pm

Hey Cannon where is the kicker going next year?

hawg88

December 3rd, 2012
4:45 pm

talk about ur classic trap game!norcross is a very talented team who thinks they punched their ticket with last fridays win over camden. the packers r very hungry and playing by far their best football of the year.Propst and his staff r second to none when it comes to strategy.The packers will win a close ballgame and advance to the finals against lovejoy.

Golden Isles Fan

December 3rd, 2012
4:46 pm

Colquitt is no cinderella team, they are just hungry for the win when ever they hit that field…..I believe colquitt will win this week, because Norcross is still on that high in camden,,,,,,Colquitt is a fine example of hard nose football and winning when it really counts…All thats on Norcross mind is the championship and over looking Co;ulquitt …..

Colquitt 23

Norcross 21

Golden Isles Fan

December 3rd, 2012
4:49 pm

I should of just said DITTO hawg88!!!

hawg88

December 3rd, 2012
4:57 pm

must respect for ur program golden isles fan camden will be an excellent team for years to come!

RobFromNorcross

December 3rd, 2012
5:03 pm

Norcross does NOT think they punched their ticket with the win over Camden County,

They are aware that Colquitt is a very dangerous team, and that they beat Camden County at home less than a month ago.

Norcross will be taking care of business Friday night as though they were the underdog even though they are 17 point favorites to defeat Colquitt…

They will worry about the next game only when this one is finished.

Norcross Blue

December 3rd, 2012
5:13 pm

Norcross is a very humble team colquitt.you guys have a great team and if we lose i’ll be rooting for them. But let’s get one thing straight. This whole season norcross has not looked two weeks down the road. This week are focused on one thing and that’s colquitt. feel honored packer fans.

Norcross Blue

December 3rd, 2012
5:19 pm

Norcross has always been respectful about our upcoming opponents. It is how we were brought up as a blue devil!! :)

itsonlywrite

December 3rd, 2012
5:52 pm

So now Gainesville qualifies as a “cindarella” team… smh… lol

NCHS fan

December 3rd, 2012
5:54 pm

The computer is fun and all, but it doesn’t take into an account how much better a team is now than it was when the season started. NChas been playing its best football these past few weeks. They gotta keep it up with Lovejoy if they want to play in the Dome. Any team left in this is good enough to beat any other team left. I don’t see this game against Lovejoy as a blow out like we had the first two rounds. But also we can’t rely on all the turnovers like we got against Mill Creek. Its going to be a tough fast moving game. Lovejoy is no joke. Bring your A game Warriors! #LetsRide

305

December 3rd, 2012
5:56 pm

we lost so we cant hate on colquitt we are still in the same region so colquitt bring it home this week camden has a whole year to get better so get to work now.
.

305

December 3rd, 2012
5:56 pm

we lost so we cant hate on colquitt we are still in the same region so colquitt bring it home this week camden has a whole year to get better so get to work now.
.

NCHS fan

December 3rd, 2012
5:59 pm

I mean to add this game can go either way and I think we can win it as long as they keep playing like they have been.

packfan

December 3rd, 2012
7:43 pm

i dont exactly agree with hawg88.concerning a trap game. a 1 seed vs a 4 seed after a huge game could be seen as such but in this scenario norcross did play colquitt in a 3quarter scrimmage and was a very tight game with certain key players out for the pack.also the wr coach for norcross has extremely deep ties with the packer program and will continuously remind the staff and players at norcross not to lose focus on the game this week with that said i do believe both teams will prepare intensely and it will be a great hs football game.hopefully gpb will have it on air this fri so those who cannot attend can watch.cant wait to see it in person though.go pack!

sportsnut

December 3rd, 2012
8:46 pm

My how things change.

cat doc

December 4th, 2012
6:19 am

I for one will not root for Colquitt, Norcross beat the Cats, so I say roll on Blue devils. And these computer odds are a sack of something.

Chan

December 4th, 2012
8:32 am

Calling Norcross vs. Colquitt a trap game is dumb. It’s the semi-finals, not week 7 of the regular season.

Abu Dhabi

December 4th, 2012
10:28 am

I LOVE an over confident team. I just love it. And, if I recall correctly Cinderella worked very hard, endured hardship and insult, was empowered, determined, strong, and in the end WON it all.,,,the prince, the palace, the life. I love it! We are Cinderella and we’re coming for our glass slipper. North Cobb, LET’S RIDE.

Cat Man

December 4th, 2012
2:30 pm

I’ll hand it to NC. They are playing great ball right now and Lovejoy doesn’t need to look past this Fri. night. However, the name of the game is consistency which gives a big edge to the Wildcats on both sides of the ball. I’m afraid when NC comes looking for their glass slipper, they’re not going to find it at 12 Oaks Friday night!

squirrell

December 4th, 2012
10:53 pm

December 4th, 2012
10:45 pm

I am a longtime Packer fan and I honestly have nothing against Norcross. But, after watching their games with Parkview, Chattahoochee & South Gwinnett, I don’t see them hanging with the Packers.

I’ll be the first to admitt that I missed it on my prediction of the Camden/Norcross game.
I sure wish I could watch that Game. If anyone knows a website, please let me know.
I assume that Norcross looked like a totally different team than I have seen.

I know high school kids can be sporadic in their performance but If the Pack plays like they are capable, and minimizes turnovers, then I predict Pack wins Friday night by 21.

Hope both teams play their best & honestly, “may the best team win”!

The Cross

December 5th, 2012
4:16 am

Squirrel-Maybe if you post enough, one of your dopey predictions come true. I watched the first half of the Parkview game and if Norcross was Colquitts opponent that night Norcross would have out up a running clock score on your Packers.

Pack by 21??? Just like Camden by 21 and Kamara gets 50 yards???

You are a goofball!

The Cross

squirrell

December 5th, 2012
7:22 am

Parkview never stopped our offense!

We stopped ourselves the first half and had our way the 2nd!

The Cross

December 5th, 2012
10:22 am

Squirrell-As long as we are playing make believe, I predict a 56 point Norcross blow-out. Hey, this is fun playing in the land of Morons!!!!

The Cross

Squirrell

December 5th, 2012
10:46 am

This is so fun to watch!

Here’s the ABSOLUTE-TRUTH!

Packers have not played a COMPLETE game all year!

If they DO-IT Friday night and minimize turnovers,

They win by at-least 21!

Squirrell

December 5th, 2012
11:06 am

Packers are not the “same” team Norcross faced in scrimmage!
************************************************************

Wayne Grandy
The Moultrie Observer The Moultrie Observer Tue Dec 04, 2012, 10:45 PM EST

MOULTRIE — Back on September 7, Colquitt County held Lovejoy to just a single, fourth-quarter touchdown in a 14-7 victory over a team that has one of the top offenses in the state.

The Packers will face a similar task on Friday when they travel to Norcross to meet an undefeated Blue Devils team that might have more weapons than Lovejoy.

Expecting the Packers defense to allow just seven points might be unrealistic.

With an accurate and veteran quarterback in Joseph Wilber, an All-State and highly coveted running back in Alvin Kamara and a big, productive junior receiver in Myles Autry, the Blue Devils are likely to put some points on the board.

They did it when they visited Tom White Field at Mack Tharpe Stadium last August in the scrimmage they won 33-31.

The Packers might find themselves involved in a track meet, but they have an experience arsenal of their own.

Quarterback Cole Segraves has proved he thrives in the the postseason and is 6-1 in playoff starts.

He has completed 163-of-273 passes for 2,098 yards and 10 touchdowns this season and has made some highlight-reel throws the last several weeks.

And Packers coach Rush Propst and offensive coordinator Jeff Hammond have been adding to the playbook as the season has gone on.

And as the season has progressed, more players have played crucial roles.

Bobby Hill continues to be the Packers primary target. He leads the team with 73 catches for 1051 yards and six touchdowns.

He caught just three passes in the victory at Parkview last Friday, but two were worth several looks.

Hill willed himself into the end zone on a 35-yard touchdown pass that gave the Packers their first lead in the third quarter.

He had another in the fourth quarter that resulted in a first down that brought the Packer fans out of their seats.

And Hill may find more maneuvering room in the secondary and Todd Boyd continues to develop.

With 40 catches for 771 yards, he has become nearly as dependable as Hill.

The Packers are beginning to show that they can run with some effectiveness, whether with Segraves toting or giving to Sihiem King, John Boatwright or Maleek Lewis.

And the opposition should not forget about versatile sophomore Javonta Woods. Or Kishaun Taylor and Deonte Johnson, who are capable to turning in plays. As is tight end Nate Madison, when he is called upon.

The Packers offensive line will again be called upon to protect Segraves and provide some space for King, Boatwright and Lewis.

Junior right tackle Gabe Mobley is coming off his best game of the season.

The other four — tackle Octavius Jackson, guards Travis Register and Jeffery Davis and center Dalton Dillon — are seniors who have logged plenty of snaps over the last 27 games.

The Blue Devils did not see the broad spectrum of the Packers offense in August, when Segraves completed 7-of-9 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown pass to Hill.

Lewis rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown on seven carries.

GHSA Fan Police

December 5th, 2012
11:33 am

After listening to the Colquitt Packer fans this week, we are highly confused as I know much of the posters on this site are as well. Therefore, we wanted to find a way to “profile” them so we could all recognize them. So the following is a pretty good way to determine who the Packer fans are.
You are most likely a Colquitt Packer fan if:

1. You think “loading the dishwasher” means getting your wife drunk.
2. You ever cut your grass and found a car.
3. The Salvation Army declines your mattress.
4. You’ve ever raked leaves in your kitchen.
5. Your wife’s job requires her to wear an orange vest.
6. Your lifetime dream is to own a fireworks stand.
7. You have the Moultrie taxidermist’s number on speed dial.
8. You’ve ever hit a deer with your car…deliberately.
9. You’ve ever given rat traps as stocking stuffers.
10. Your grandma has “ammo” on her Christmas list.
11. The taillight covers of your car are made of red tape.
12. You prefer car keys to Q-tips.
13. Your wife’s hairdo has ever been ruined by a ceiling fan.
14. You consider a six-pack and a bug-zapper high-quality entertainment.
15. One of your brother-in-law is also your uncle.
16. You had to remove a toothpick for wedding pictures.
17. You consider a family reunion a good place to find Mrs. Right.
18. Your dog and your wallet are both on chains.
19. Your dog can’t watch you eat without gagging.
20. The fifth grade is referred to as “your senior year,”

Thank you for your time.

GHSA Fan Police

Packers Love the Playoffs

December 5th, 2012
12:19 pm

Dear GHSA Fan Police,

Please get some original material. We know this is your wife’s complaints about you in the divorce.

Go Pack

RobFromNorcross

December 5th, 2012
12:31 pm

Earth to Squirrell-

Norcross is not the same team that visited Mouldie in August either… for one thing our defense has improved a lot. For another, our O Line has jelled. Do you think you are the only team that has improved over the course of the season?

The Cross

December 5th, 2012
1:52 pm

Squirell-The ONLY wayColqitt wins by 21 is…..

Scratch that there is absolutely NO WAYthe Packers win by 21. Norcross is te best team in the state and it is not even close!

The Cross

GHSA Fan Police

December 5th, 2012
2:07 pm

PackersLove-That is not the only thing she complained about in the divorce.

I wish you guys luck this week. You are certainy going to need a lot of it.

Norcross Blue

December 5th, 2012
2:19 pm

Sorry squirrel- This isn’t a disney movie. your dream will not come true.

Stooge

December 5th, 2012
5:18 pm

Hey Cross, wanna step outside and say that? Lol You guys are a rocking team and good luck to you. We’ll try to win with grace and good conduct. The team arrives Thursday afternoon.

Observer

December 5th, 2012
5:26 pm

Luck? Isn’t this the first time EVER Norcross has lucked into the state semifinals. The Packers will not need luck to win the game. Norcross will fold up like a wounded dove.

Colquitt Supporter

December 5th, 2012
5:30 pm

Gonna be a hell of a game – I think within 4 points decides it. On paper I would give the edge to Norcross. But since we are playing on the field, who knows? Both teams have certainly improved since the scrimmage. But I am glad to play Norcross having lost the scrimmage than having won it – gives us a little more incentive.

Time to go load the dishwasher.

The Cross

December 5th, 2012
6:28 pm

Stooge-You know that I am a lover not a fighter. Plus I don’t have time, I have to go rake the leaves out of the kitchen.

The Cross

Colquitt Supporter

December 5th, 2012
9:40 pm

Cross, isn’t that what the dishwasher is far?

Colquitt Supporter

December 5th, 2012
9:42 pm

Make that for unless Fan Police prefer I not end a sentence with a prepostion.

GTVET

December 7th, 2012
2:49 pm

Calhoun,Ridgeland and Cartersville all win…Norcross wins by 6…Lovejoy probably wins but I really hope if they do they show just even a touch of class and respect for the other team this week.GO NAVY BEAT ARMY!!!!!!